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Time series comparisons in Deep Space Network

The Deep Space Network (DSN) is NASA’s international array of antennas that support interplanetary spacecraft missions. DSN provides radar and radio astronomy observations that enhance our understanding of the solar system and the larger universe. A track is a block of continuous multi-dimensional time series from the beginning to end of DSN communication with the target spacecraft, containing 129 monitor data items lasting several hours at a frequency of 0.2-1Hz. Monitor data on each track reports on the performance of specific spacecraft operations and the DSN itself. DSN is receiving signals from 32 spacecraft across the solar system. DSN has pressure to reduce costs while maintaining the quality of support for DSN mission users. DSN operators need to simultaneously monitor multiple tracks and identify anomalies in real time. DSN has seen that as the number of missions increases, the data that needs to be processed increases over time. In this project, we look at the last 8 years of data for analysis. Any anomaly in the track indicates a problem with either the spacecraft, DSN equipment, or weather conditions. DSN operators typically write “discrepancy reports” for further analysis. It is recognized that it would be quite helpful to identify 10 similar historical tracks out of the huge database to quickly find/match anomalies. This tool has three functions: (1) identification of the top 10 similar historical tracks, (2) detection of anomalies compared to the reference normal track, and (3) comparison of statistical differences between two given tracks. The requirements for these features were confirmed by survey responses from 21 DSN operators and engineers. The preliminary machine learning model has shown promising performance (AUC=0.92). We plan to increase the number of data sets and perform additional testing to improve performance further before its planned integration into the Track Visualizer to assist DSN field operators and engineers.

Rebbapragada, Umaa↗

Micro Weather Station

Improved in situ meteorological measurements in the troposphere and stratosphere are needed for studies of weather and climate, both as a primary data source and as validation for remote sensing instruments. Following the initial development and successful flight validation of the surface acoustic wave (SAW) hygrometer, the micro weather station program was directed toward the development of an integrated instrument, capable of accurate, in situ profiling of the troposphere, and small enough to fly on a radiosonde balloon for direct comparison with standard radiosondes. On April 23, 1998, working with Frank Schmidlin and Bob Olson of Wallops Island Flight Facility, we flew our instrument in a dual payload experiment, for validation and direct comparison with a Vaisala radiosonde. During that flight, the SAW dewpoint hygrometer measured frostpoint down to -76T at 44,000 feet. Using a laptop computer in radio contact with the balloon, we monitored data in real time, issued the cutdown command, and recovered the payload less than an hour after landing in White Sands Missile Range, 50 miles from the launch site in Hatch, New Mexico. Future flights will extend the intercomparison, and attempt to obtain in situ meteorological profiles from the surface through the tropopause. The SAW hygrometer was successfully deployed on the NASA DC8 as part of NASA's Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) during August and September, 1998. This field campaign was devoted to the study of hurricane tracking and intensification using NASA-funded aircraft. In situ humidity data from the SAW hygrometer are currently being analyzed and compared with data from other instruments on the DC8 and ER2 aircraft. Additional information is contained in the original.

Hoenk, Michael E.↗

Use of the VAS for analysis of a prethunderstorm environment

The information content of the VAS radiances can be converted to meteorological parameters useful for analyzing a severe weather environment. The method by which the VAS variances are converted to vertical profiles of temperature, dewpoints, and equivalent potential temperature involves a basic regression technique using the most local radiosonde data available for establishing a correlation matrix. The results indicate that mesoscale features apparent within images of the radiances can be converted to usable temperature and moisture fields using regression when surface temperature and dewpoint observations are included within the total data base. In addition, results indicate that surface data are very important for better defining lower tropospheric structure that the VAS radiances alone cannot properly resolve. Analyses of these retrievals distinctly show mesoscale structure in the temperature and moisture fields derived with VAS radiances collected every 3 hours, and 0000 GMT. The retrievals capture the moisture structure. More important, convective instability is clearly detected immediately before the onset of convection. The results indicate that the VAS is capable of providing valuable mesoscale information suitable for analyzing a preconvective environment that is generally clear.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

The evolution of convective storms from their footprints on the sea as viewed by synthetic aperture radar from space

SEASAT synthetic aperture radar (SAR) echoes from the sea have previously been shown to be the result of rain and winds produced by convective stroms; rain damps the surface waves and causes ech-free holes, while the diverging winds associated with downdraft generate waves and associated echoes surrounding the holes. Gust fronts are also evident. Such a snapshot from 8 July 1978 has been examined in conjunction with ground-based radar. This leads to the conclusion that the SAR storm footprints resulted from storm processes that occurred up to an hour or more prior to the snapshot. A sequence of events is discerned from the SAR imagery in which new cell growth is triggered in between the converging outflows of two preexisting cells. In turn, the new cell generates a mini-squall line along its expanding gust front. While such phenomena are well known over land, the spaceborne SAR now allows important inferences to be made about the nature and frequency of convective storms over the oceans. The storm effects on the sea have significant implications for spaceborne wind scatterometry and rainfall measurements. Some of the findings herein remain speculative because of the great distance to the Miami weather radar-the only source of corroborative data.

Atlas, David↗

A WRF-Chem Analysis of Flash Rates, Lightning-NOx Production and Subsequent Trace Gas Chemistry of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). This is a continuation of previous work, which compared lightning observations (Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array and National Lightning Detection Network) with flashes generated by various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) from the literature in a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm. Based on the Oklahoma radar observations and Lightning Mapping Array data, new FRPSs are being generated and incorporated into the model. The focus of this analysis is on estimating the amount of lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) produced per flash in this storm through a series of model simulations using different production per flash assumptions and comparisons with DC3 aircraft anvil observations. The result of this analysis will be compared with previously studied mid-latitude storms. Additional model simulations are conducted to investigate the upper troposphere transport, distribution, and chemistry of the LNOx plume during the 24 hours following the convective event to investigate ozone production. These model-simulated mixing ratios are compared against the aircraft observations made on 30 May over the southern Appalachians.

Cummings, Kristin A.↗

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

remote sensing↗

STS-48 case study, 17-18 September 1991

Weather conditions are documented prior to and during the STS-48 attempted landing at the Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC on 18 Sep. 1991. Trends in meteorological data during 17 and 18 Sep. are examined along with their relationship to the overall weather pattern observed over the KSC region. The primary weather problems during the landing were the formation of showers within 10 nautical miles of the SLF and any ceiling less than 10,000 ft. The controlling factor of the weather was a high pressure ridge that was gradually weakening and moving off the northeast. As this occurred, the low level flow was switching from a easterly to a southeasterly direction. This change in wind direction was reflected by shower movement on the McGill radar and by trends in rawinsondes launched from the Cape. These rawinsondes also indicated that the boundary layers was becoming slightly more unstable several hours prior to the attempted landing which may have aided in the development of clouds and small isolated showers. Also, analyses of Doppler wind profiler and rawinsondes indicated a possible midlevel disturbance in the easterly flow pattern near 700 mb. This weak disturbance may have made the atmosphere a little more unstable early on 18 Sep. Finally, embedded within the southeasterly flow were several bands of low clouds. These clouds were rather difficult to see in unenhanced IR satellite imagery available to forecasters in real time. However, post analyses using several different enhancement curves, adapted from NESDIS, clearly reveals the presence of these clouds.

Atchison, Michael K.↗

A preliminary study of the impact of the ERS 1 C band scatterometer wind data on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global data assimilation system

A preliminary assessment of the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer wind data on the current European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis and forecast system has been carried out. Although the scatterometer data results in changes to the analyses and forecasts, there is no consistent improvement or degradation. Our results are based on comparing analyses and forecasts from assimilation cycles. The two sets of analyses are very similar except for the low level wind fields over the ocean. Impacts on the analyzed wind fields are greater over the southern ocean, where other data are scarce. For the most part the mass field increments are too small to balance the wind increments. The effect of the nonlinear normal mode initialization on the analysis differences is quite small, but we observe that the differences tend to wash out in the subsequent 6-hour forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, analysis differences are very small, except directly at the scatterometer locations. Forecast comparisons reveal large differences in the Southern Hemisphere after 72 hours. Notable differences in the Northern Hemisphere do not appear until late in the forecast. Overall, however, the Southern Hemisphere impacts are neutral. The experiments described are preliminary in several respects. We expect these data to ultimately prove useful for global data assimilation.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS)

Peak wind speed is important element in 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS). Forecasts issued for planning operations at KSC/CCAFS. 45 WS wind advisories issued for wind gusts greater than or equal to 25 kt. 35 kt and 50 kt from surface to 300 ft. AMU developed cool-season (Oct - Apr) tool to help 45 WS forecast: daily peak wind speed, 5-minute average speed at time of peak wind, and probability peak speed greater than or equal to 25 kt, 35 kt, 50 kt. AMU tool also forecasts daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft. Phase I and II tools delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). Phase II tool also delivered as Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) GUI. Phase I and II forecast methods were compared to climatology, 45 WS wind advisories and North American Mesoscale model (MesoNAM) forecasts in a verification data set.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Software Displays Data on Active Regions of the Sun

The Solar Active Region Display System is a computer program that generates, in near real time, a graphical display of parameters indicative of the spatial and temporal variations of activity on the Sun. These parameters include histories and distributions of solar flares, active region growth, coronal mass ejections, size, and magnetic configuration. By presenting solar-activity data in graphical form, this program accelerates, facilitates, and partly automates what had previously been a time-consuming mental process of interpretation of solar-activity data presented in tabular and textual formats. Intended for original use in predicting space weather in order to minimize the exposure of astronauts to ionizing radiation, the program might also be useful on Earth for predicting solar-wind-induced ionospheric effects, electric currents, and potentials that could affect radio-communication systems, navigation systems, pipelines, and long electric-power lines. Raw data for the display are obtained automatically from the Space Environment Center (SEC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Other data must be obtained from the NOAA SEC by verbal communication and entered manually. The Solar Active Region Display System automatically accounts for the latitude dependence of the rate of rotation of the Sun, by use of a mathematical model that is corrected with NOAA SEC active-region position data once every 24 hours. The display includes the date, time, and an image of the Sun in H light overlaid with latitude and longitude coordinate lines, dots that mark locations of active regions identified by NOAA, identifying numbers assigned by NOAA to such regions, and solar-region visual summary (SRVS) indicators associated with some of the active regions. Each SRVS indicator is a small pie chart containing five equal sectors, each of which is color-coded to provide a semiquantitative indication of the degree of hazard posed by one aspect of the activity at the indicated location. The five aspects in question are the history of solar flares, the history of coronal mass ejections, the growth or decay of activity, the overall size, and the magnetic configuration. Mouse-clicking on an active-region-marking dot, SRVS indicator, or NOAA region number causes the program to generate a solar-region summary table (SRT) for the active region in question. The SRT contains additional quantitative and qualitative data, beyond those contained in the SRVS: These data include the solar coordinates of the region, the area of the region and its change in area during the past 24 hours, the change in the number of sunspots in the region during the past 24 hours, the magnetic configuration, and the types, dates, and times of the most recent flare and coronal mass ejection.

Golightly, Mike↗

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.

Dreher, Joseph↗

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗

Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Surface Fluxes Derived from Operational Analyses

Operational numerical weather prediction systems assimilate tremendous amounts of observations to produce global analyses of the atmospheric states. Since the systems include significant contributions from the model components, physical fields, such as the turbulent heat fluxes, can also be derived. However, the physical fields are indirectly constrained by the data assimilation, and so subject to uncertainty in the model parameterizations. Recently, 10 international operational analyses have been collected and reprocessed through the Coordinated Enhanced. Observing Period (CEOP). Comparisons against independent observations (global precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation) show that while there is significant range of the individual analyses, the ensemble of analyses provide data closest the observations. Here, we evaluate the collection of land surface turbulent heat fluxes. The data are available for Oct 2002 - Dec 2004, at 6 hourly, daily and monthly intervals. An ensemble mean and its variance have been computed. we will analyze the range of analysis results at daily and seasonal time scales, and where possible compare with existing observations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

GeoXO Atmospheric Composition Instrument (AC) Measurements Conditions Assessment

NOAA’s next generation Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) satellite system will advance Earth observations from geostationary orbit. GeoXO will supply vital information supporting the U.S. weather, ocean, and climate operations. The recommended three-satellite constellation includes spacecraft at GOES-Central position, that will carry an Atmospheric Composition Instrument (ACX) among its payloads; the requirement on the ACX is to scan its region of interest in one hour. An assessment of ACX observational conditions is presented, based on view geometry and solar angle range over the year. The availability for observations of each pixel is estimated per day of the year, as function of the geometric air mass factor (AMF), which can be related to signal to noise ratio using a model of the ACX instrument performance, and ultimately to expected column error for specific atmospheric species. In addition, cloud climatology – based on statistics derived from GOES-16 ABI cloud product data – is considered to determine typical fractions of cloud-free ACX observations and typical cloud optical depths, for each pixel as function of time of day and season. The results of such assessments can be used to prepare for GeoXO ACX data and further the understanding and development of the future instrument operations.

Boryana Efremova↗

Prospects for UT1 Measurements from VLBI Intensive Sessions

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Intensives are one-hour single baseline sessions to provide Universal Time (UT1) in near real-time up to a delay of three days if a site is not e-transferring the observational data. Due to the importance of UT1 estimates for the prediction of Earth orientation parameters, as well as any kind of navigation on Earth or in space, there is not only the need to improve the timeliness of the results but also their accuracy. We identify the asymmetry of the tropospheric delays as the major error source, and we provide two strategies to improve the results, in particular of those Intensives which include the station Tsukuba in Japan with its large tropospheric variation. We find an improvement when (1) using ray-traced delays from a numerical weather model, and (2) when estimating tropospheric gradients within the analysis of Intensive sessions. The improvement is shown in terms of reduction of rms of length-of-day estimates w.r.t. those derived from Global Positioning System observations

Boehm, Johannes↗

Comparison of Mesospheric Winds From a High-Altitude Meteorological Analysis System and Meteor Radar Observations During the Boreal Winters of 2009-2010 and 2012-2013

We present a study of horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the boreal winters of 2009-2010 and 2012-2013 produced with a new high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. This system is based on a modified version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) with an extended vertical domain up to approximately 116 km altitude coupled with a hybrid four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system that assimilates both standard operational meteorological observations in the troposphere and satellite-based observations of temperature, ozone and water vapor in the stratosphere and mesosphere. NAVGEM-based MLT analyzed winds are validated using independent meteor radar wind observations from nine different sites ranging from 69 deg N-67 deg S latitude. Time-averaged NAVGEM zonal and meridional wind profiles between 75 and 95 km altitude show good qualitative and quantitative agreement with corresponding meteor radar wind profiles. Wavelet analysis finds that the 3-hourly NAVGEM and 1-hourly radar winds both exhibit semi-diurnal, diurnal, and quasi-diurnal variations whose vertical profiles of amplitude and phase are also in good agreement. Wavelet analysis also reveals common time-frequency behavior in both NAVGEM and radar winds throughout the Northern extra tropics around the times of major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in January 2010 and January 2013, with a reduction in semi-diurnal amplitudes beginning around the time of a mesospheric wind reversal at 60 deg N that precedes the SSW, followed by an amplification of semi-diurnal amplitudes that peaks 10-14 days following the onset of the mesospheric wind reversal. The initial results presented in this study demonstrate that the wind analyses produced by the high altitude NAVGEM system accurately capture key features in the observed MLT winds during these two boreal winter periods.

McCormack, J.↗

A Meso-Climatology Study of the High-Resolution Tower Network Over the Florida Spaceport

Forecasters at the US Air Force 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use wind and temperature data from the tower network over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to evaluate Launch Commit Criteria and to issue and verify temperature and wind advisories, watches, and warnings for ground operations. The Spaceflight Meteorology Group at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX also uses these data when issuing forecasts for shuttle landings at the KSC Shuttle Landing Facility. Systematic biases in these parameters at any of the towers could adversely affect an analysis, forecast, or verification for all of these operations. In addition, substantial geographical variations in temperature and wind speed can occur under specific wind directions. Therefore, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU), operated by ENSCO Inc., was tasked to develop a monthly and hourly climatology of temperatures and winds from the tower network, and identify the geographical variation, tower biases, and the magnitude of those biases. This paper presents a sub-set of results from a nine-year climatology of the KSC/CCAFS tower network, highlighting the geographical variations based on location, month, times of day, and specific wind direction regime. Section 2 provides a description of the tower mesonetwork and instrumentation characteristics. Section 3 presents the methodology used to construct the tower climatology including QC methods and data processing. The results of the tower climatology are presented in Section 4 and Section 5 summarizes the paper.

Case, Jonathan L.↗