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NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Wood, Lance↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). In last year's NWA abstract on this topic, the suite of SPoRT products supported in the STRC EMS was presented, which includes a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This abstract and companion presentation describes recent upgrades made to the SST and GVF composites, as well as the real-time LIS runs. The Great Lakes sea-ice product is unchanged from 2011. The SPoRT SST composite product has been expanded geographically and as a result, the resolution has been coarsened from 1 km to 2 km to accommodate the larger domain. The expanded domain covers much of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to western Europe (0 N to 80 N latitude and 150 E to 10 E longitude). In addition, the NESDIS POES-GOES product was added to fill in gaps caused by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) being unable to sense in cloudy regions, replacing the recently-lost Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS with negligible change to product fidelity. The SST product now runs twice per day for Terra and Aqua combined data collections from 0000 to 1200 UTC and from 1200 to 0000 UTC, with valid analysis times at 0600 and 1800 UTC. The twice-daily compositing technique reduces the overall latency of the previous version while still representing the diurnal cycle characteristics. The SST composites are available at approximately four hours after the end of each collection period (i.e. 1600 UTC for the nighttime analysis and 0400 UTC for the daytime analysis). The real-time MODIS GVF composite has only received minor updates in the past year. The domain was expanded slightly to extend further west, north, and east to improve coverage over parts of southern Canada. Minor adjustments were also made to the manner in which GVF is calculated from the distribution of maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from MODIS. The presentation will highlight some examples of the substantial inter-annual change in GVF that occurred from 2010 to 2011 in the U.S. Southern Plains as a result of the summer 2011 drought, and the early vegetation green up across the eastern U.S. due to the very warm conditions in March 2012. Finally, the SPoRT LIS runs the operational Noah land surface model (LSM) in real time over much of the eastern half of the CONUS. The Noah LSM is continually cycled in real time, uncoupled to any model, and driven by operational atmospheric analyses over a long-term, multi-year integration. The LIS-Noah provides the STRC EMS with high-resolution (3 km) LSM initialization data that are in equilibrium with the operational analysis forcing. The Noah LSM within the SPoRT LIS has been upgraded from version 2.7.1 to version 3.2, which has improved look-up table attributes for several land surface quantities. The surface albedo field is now being adjusted based on the input real-time MODIS GVF, thereby improving the net radiation. Also, the LIS-Noah now uses the newer MODIS-based land use classification scheme (i.e. the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme [IGBP]) that has a better depiction of urban corridors in areas where urban sprawl has occurred. STRC EMS users interested in initializing their LSM fields with high-resolution SPoRT LIS data should set up their model domain with the MODIS-IGBP 20-class land use database and select Noah as the LSM.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mesoscale Simulation Data for Initializing Fast-Time Wake Transport and Decay Models

The fast-time wake transport and decay models require vertical profiles of crosswinds, potential temperature and the eddy dissipation rate as initial conditions. These inputs are normally obtained from various field sensors. In case of data-denied scenarios or operational use, these initial conditions can be provided by mesoscale model simulations. In this study, the vertical profiles of potential temperature from a mesoscale model were used as initial conditions for the fast-time wake models. The mesoscale model simulations were compared against available observations and the wake model predictions were compared with the Lidar measurements from three wake vortex field experiments.

Ahmad, Nashat N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20 25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗
NASA NTRS2012

Aquarius: The Instrument and Initial Results

Aquarius was launched on June 10, 2011 aboard the Aquarius/SAC-D observatory and the instrument has been operating continuously since the initial turned-on was completed on August 25. The initial observed antenna temperatures were close to predicted and the first salinity map was released in September. In order to map the ocean salinity field, Aquarius includes several special features such as the inclusion of a scatterometer to provide a roughness correction, measurement of the third Stokes parameter to correct for Faraday rotation, and fast sampling to mitigate the effects of RFI. This paper provides an overview of the instrument and an example of initial results. Details are covered in subsequent papers in the session on Aquarius

Ocean salinity↗
NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

SPoRT/SERVIR/RCMRD/KMS Collaboration: Builds off strengths of each organization. SPoRT: Transition of satellite, modeling and verification capabilities; SERVIR‐Africa/RCMRD: International capacity-building expertise; KMS: Operational organization with regional weather forecasting expertise in East Africa. Hypothesis: Improved land‐surface initialization over Eastern Africa can lead to better temperature, moisture, and ultimately precipitation forecasts in NWP models. KMS currently initializes Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with NCEP/Global Forecast System (GFS) model 0.5‐deg initial / boundary condition data. LIS will provide much higher‐resolution land‐surface data at a scale more representative to regional WRF configuration. Future implementation of real‐time NESDIS/VIIRS vegetation fraction to further improve land surface representativeness.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Initial Assessment of a Variable-Camber Continuous Trailing-Edge Flap System on a Rigid Wing for Drag Reduction in Subsonic Cruise

In this paper, we describe an initial optimization study of a Variable-Camber Continuous Trailing-Edge Flap (VCCTEF) system. The VCCTEF provides a light-weight control system for aircraft with long flexible wings, providing efficient high-lift capability for takeoff and landing, and greater efficiency with reduced drag at cruising flight by considering the effects of aeroelastic wing deformations in the control law. The VCCTEF system is comprised of a large number of distributed and individually-actuatable control surfaces that are constrained in movement relative to neighboring surfaces, and are non-trivially coupled through structural aeroelastic dynamics. Minimzation of drag results in a constrained, coupled, non-linear optimization over a high-dimension search space. In this paper, we describe the modeling, analysis, and optimization of the VCCTEF system control inputs for minimum drag in cruise. The purpose of this initial study is to quantify the expected benefits of the system concept. The scope of this analysis is limited to consideration of a rigid wing without structural flexibility in a steady-state cruise condition at various fuel weights. For analysis, we developed an optimization engine that couples geometric synthesis with vortex-lattice analysis to automate the optimization procedure. In this paper, we present and describe the VCCTEF system concept, optimization approach and tools, run-time performance, and results of the optimization at 20%, 50%, and 80% fuel load. This initial limited-scope study finds the VCCTEF system can potentially gain nearly 10% reduction in cruise drag, provides greater drag savings at lower operating weight, and efficiency is negatively impacted by the severity of relative constraints between control surfaces.

trailing edge flaps↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Comparison of Perturbed Initial Conditions and Multiphysics Ensembles in a Severe Weather Episode in Spain

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.

severe weather↗
NASA NTRS2014

Exploring the Utility of the Planned CYGNSS Mission for Investigating the Initiation and Development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

CYGNSS is a planned constellation consisting of multiple micro-satellites that leverage the Global Positioning System (GPS) to provide rapidly updated, high resolution (approx. 15-50 km, approx. 4 h) surface wind speeds (via bi-static scatterometry) over the tropical oceans in any weather condition, including heavy rainfall. The approach of the work to be presented at this conference is to utilize a limited-domain, cloud-system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting or WRF) and its attendant data assimilation scheme (Three-Dimensional Variational Assimilation or 3DVAR) to investigate the utility of the CYGNSS mission for helping characterize key convectiveto- mesoscale processes - such as surface evaporation, moisture advection and convergence, and upscale development of precipitation systems - that help drive the initiation and development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The proposed work will focus on three scientific objectives. Objective 1 is to produce a high-resolution surface wind dataset resolution (approx. 0.5 h, approx. 1-4 km) for multiple MJO onsets using WRF-assimilated winds and other data from the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign, which took place during October 2011 - March 2012. Objective 2 is to study the variability of surface winds during MJO onsets at temporal and spatial scales of finer resolution than future CYGNSS data. The goal is to understand how sub-CYGNSS-resolution processes will shape the observations made by the satellite constellation. Objective 3 is to ingest simulated CYGNSS data into the WRF model in order to perform observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). These will be used to test and quantify the potential beneficial effects provided by CYGNSS, particularly for characterizing the physical processes driving convective organization and upscale development during the initiation and development of the MJO. The proposed research is ideal for answering important questions about the CYGNSS mission, such as the representativeness of surface wind retrievals in the context of the complex airflow processes that occur during heavy precipitation, as well as the tradeoffs in retrieval accuracy that result from finer spatial resolution of the CYGNSS winds versus increased errors/noisiness in those data. Research plans and initial progress toward these objectives will be presented.

Lang, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2015

Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed −1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

Arctic Sea↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Mission Simulation (IMSim): Multiphase Initialization Design with Late Joiners, Rejoiners and Federation Save & Restore

This document describes the design of the Integrated Mission Simulation (IMSim) federate multiphase initialization process. The main goal of multiphase initialization is to allow for data interdependencies during the federate initialization process. IMSim uses the High Level Architecture (HLA) IEEE 1516 [1] to provide the communication and coordination between the distributed parts of the simulation. They are implemented using the Runtime Infrastructure (RTI) from Pitch Technologies AB. This document assumes a basic understanding of IEEE 1516 HLA, and C++ programming. In addition, there are several subtle points in working with IEEE 1516 and the Pitch RTI that need to be understood, which are covered in Appendix A. Please note the C++ code samples shown in this document are for the IEEE 1516-2000 standard.

Dexter, Daniel E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Initial Navigation Alignment of Optical Instruments on GOES-R

Post-launch alignment errors for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geospatial Lightning Mapper (GLM) on GOES-R may be too large for the image navigation and registration (INR) processing algorithms to function without an initial adjustment to calibration parameters. We present an approach that leverages a combination of user-selected image-to-image tie points and image correlation algorithms to estimate this initial launch-induced offset and calculate adjustments to the Line of Sight Motion Compensation (LMC) parameters. We also present an approach to generate synthetic test images, to which shifts and rotations of known magnitude are applied. Results of applying the initial alignment tools to a subset of these synthetic test images are presented. The results for both ABI and GLM are within the specifications established for these tools, and indicate that application of these tools during the post-launch test (PLT) phase of GOES-R operations will enable the automated INR algorithms for both instruments to function as intended.

geolocation↗
NASA NTRS2017

The South/Southeast Asia Research Initiative (SARI) Update and Meeting Objectives

Land Use/Cover Change (LU/CC) is one of the most important types of environmental change in South and Southeast Asian countries. Several studies suggest that LU/CC in these countries is in large part driven by population growth and economic development. In the region, changes that are most common include urban expansion, agricultural land loss, land abandonment, deforestation, logging, reforestation, etc. To address the research needs and priorities in the region, a regional initiative entitled South Southeast Asia Regional Initiative (SARI) has been developed involving US and regional scientists. The initiative is funded by NASA Land Cover, Land Use Change program. The goal of SARI is to integrate state-of-the-art remote sensing, natural sciences, engineering and social sciences to enrich LU/CC science in South Southeast Asian countries. In the presentation, LU/CC change research in SARI countries will be highlighted including the drivers of change. For example, in South Asia, forest cover has been increasing in countries like India, Nepal and Bhutan due to sustainable afforestation measures; whereas, large-scale deforestation in Southeast Asian countries is still continuing, due to oil palm plantation expansion driven by the international market demand in Malaysia and Indonesia. With respect to urbanization, South and Southeast Asian countries contain 23 megacities, each with more than 10 million people. Rapid urbanization is driving agricultural land loss and agricultural intensification has been increasing due to less availability of land for growing food crops such as in India, Vietnam, and Thailand. The drivers of LUCC vary widely in the region and include such factors as land tenure, local economic development, government policies, inappropriate land management, land speculation, improved road networks, etc. In addition, variability in the weather, climate, and socioeconomic factors also drive LU/CC resulting in disruptions of biogeochemical cycles, radiation and the surface energy balance of the atmosphere. The presentation will also highlight SARI collaborative activities with space agencies, universities and non-government organizations including data sharing mechanisms in the region.

Research↗
NASA NTRS2017

Future Directions of the National Nanotechnology Initiative - NNI 2.0

The National Nanotechnology Initiative is a collaboration of 20 Federal agencies and departments with shared interests in nanotechnology research, development and commercialization. These agencies recognize that the ability to understand and exploit the novel phenomena that occur at the nanoscale will enabled the development of new materials and devices with properties and performance that far exceeds that of conventional systems. Due to the combined investments of the Federal government, now close to $24B, and those of industry, nanotechnology has moved out of the laboratory and into commercial products that are enhancing our daily lives. Nanotechnology-based discoveries are poised to revolutionize the way we diagnose and treat disease, radically improve the energy efficiency of aircraft and ground transportation systems, and will someday enable human exploration of Mars. This presentation will provide an overview of the National Nanotechnology Initiative, highlight some accomplishments in nanotechnology research and development, and discuss the future of the initiative.

nanotechnology↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA's Digital Transformation (DT) Initiative

NASA's Digital Transformation (DT) Initiative will dramatically enhance NASA's mission impact by reinventing mission and mission support processes, products, and capabilities, enabled by an innovation culture, digital-savvy workforce, and advanced digital technologies, building on a foundation of modern data management and IT security. This presentation, as part of a conference panel, provides an overview of NASA's DT Initiative, and describes how the Initiative supports an "antidisciplinary" future, where the greatest mission transformation opportunities will be found at the intersections and mergers of multiple disciplines.

Biegel, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Role of Oceanic Processes in the Initiation of Boreal Winter Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Indian Ocean

Observational analyses and a hierarchy of ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments were performed to understand the influence of oceanic processes on the warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) prior to the convection initiation of boreal winter intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), in the equatorial Indian Ocean. We found 39 strong ISOs that passed over the Indian Ocean Warm Pool region during the November-April season of the 2001-2012 period. 17/39 ISO events initiated in the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) before propagating eastward; the remaining events initiated in the southern Arabian Sea (6) or Warm Pool (16) regions. The SCTR event set was notable in that it contained more global-scale MJOs (71-76%), as defined by the RMM and OMI indices, than the WP events (25-44%). Additionally, ~24% (44%) of the SCTR (Warm Pool) events were preceded by strong oceanic process-induced SSTAs of similar magnitude to those of shortwave radiative and turbulent heat fluxes. The Arabian Sea events, however, were not associated with statistically significant SSTA signals prior to convection. Based on a mixed layer heat budget analysis, entrainment and upwelling reduction were the dominant oceanic processes contributing to the warming, in contrast with boreal summer, when horizontal advection dominated. We examined several case studies, including primary MJO events, where oceanic Rossby waves were associated with the entrainment and upwelling reduction. Two simple atmospheric boundary layer convergence models revealed that the SSTAs contributed at least half of the total convergence and suggested that the ocean dynamical effect was responsible for the majority of SSTA-forced convergence for those case studies. These results underscore the need for climate prediction models to accurately represent the ocean structure and processes to include the effects of oceanic predictors.

West, B. Jason↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initiation and Propagation of Skin/Stiffener Separation in Postbuckled Structures Subjected to Cyclic Loads

A methodology is proposed to evaluate experimentally and numerically the initiation and propagation of skin/stiffener separation in postbuckled panels subjected to cyclic loads. The response mechanisms that characterize skin/stiffener separation were investigated using a three point bend (3PB) test specimen, which is a simple specimen consisting of a laminate representing the skin and a doubler representing the stiffener flange. The 3PB tests were performed under quasi-static and cyclic loads. A fatigue cohesive model was used to analyze the initiation and propagation of skin/stiffener separation in the 3PB. The results indicate that the fatigue cohesive model with model parameters obtained from quasi-static fracture tests can provide accurate predictions of initiation from a pristine state, and the rate of fatigue crack propagation for a variety of mode mixities, load levels, and stress ratios.

Carlos G Davila↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initiation and Propagation of Skin/Stiffener Separation in Postbuckled Structures

A methodology is proposed to experimentally and numerically evaluate the initiation and propagation of skin/stiffener separation in postbuckled panels subjected to cyclic loads. The response mechanisms that characterize skin/stiffener separation were investigated using a three point bend (3PB) test specimen, which is a simple specimen consisting of a laminate representing the skin and a doubler representing the stiffener flange. The 3PB tests were performed under quasi-static and cyclic loads. A fatigue cohesive model was used to analyze the initiation and propagation of skin/stiffener separation in the 3PB specimen. The results indicate that the fatigue cohesive model with model parameters obtained from quasi-static fracture tests can provide accurate predictions of initiation from a pristine state, and the rate of fatigue crack propagation for a variety of mode mixities, load levels, and stress ratios.

Carlos G. Dávila↗