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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2008

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for their utility in gauging model performance and QPF variability.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO

An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño-namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño-and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.

climate models↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating the Global Water and Energy Cycles in Reanalyses Using Ensemble Spread

Reanalyses provide continuous observation based global data over weather and climate time scales through observational assimilation. Ensemble forecasts are a component of modern data assimilation systems, providing information to the analysis process. Storing this spread over the duration of a climate reanalysis will provide insight to the variations of the model that underlies the reanalysis data. Global water and energy cycles (WECs) are a critical aspect of both weather and climate, yet there are some large gaps in the observation of key components as well as their representation in models and reanalyses. NASA’s Water and Energy cycle Studies (NEWS) program is developing a corrected and balanced budget data set that is closed at monthly and regional scales during the 21st century, so far. In this paper, we will evaluate reanalysis WEC components against the initial NEWS collection of observation, but integrate the analysis spread from the reanalysis data assimilation as a new perspective on the evaluation. The initial evaluation will cover a few more recent years using ERA5 10 member spread. As the GMAO’s production of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications 21st Century (MERRA-21C) progresses, the effort will include the MERRA-21C 32 member spread. Ultimately, we will explore the potential of the ensemble spread as a measure of uncertainty in the reanalysis.

Michael Bosilovich↗
NASA NTRS2016

Gamma-Ray Pulsar Light Curves as Probes of Magnetospheric Structure

The large number of gamma-ray pulsars discovered by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope since its launch in 2008 dwarfs the handful that were previously known. The variety of observed light curves makes possible a tomography of both the ensemble-averaged field structure and the high-energy emission regions of a pulsar magnetosphere. Fitting the gamma-ray pulsar light curves with model magnetospheres and emission models has revealed that most of the high-energy emission, and the particles acceleration, takes place near or beyond the light cylinder, near the current sheet. As pulsar magnetosphere models become more sophisticated, it is possible to probe magnetic field structure and emission that are self-consistently determined. Light curve modeling will continue to be a powerful tool for constraining the pulsar magnetosphere physics.

Harding, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Signature of Ozone Depletion in Recent Antarctic Precipitation Change: A Study with the Community Earth System Model

Although precipitation is a primary control on Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass balance, long-term historical AIS precipitation trends and their underlying external climate drivers remain inconclusive. In this study, we use a novel pair of climate model ensembles to identify a simulated spatial signature of ozone depletion-forced AIS precipitation change. Distinct areas of little change or precipitation decrease, arising from interaction between ozone depletion-forced atmospheric circulation changes and ice sheet topography, are outweighed by large-scale precipitation increases. This signature bears notable similarities to a new ice core-based reconstruction of AIS accumulation change and yields a significant increase in annual integrated precipitation (38 ± 10 Gt/year over the 1986–2005 period or 51 ± 11 Gt/year over the 1991–2005 period). Remarkably, this simulated ozone depletion-forced precipitation change is of a similar absolute magnitude to recent observed AIS mass loss trends and as a consequence, it may play a role in dampening recent AIS sea level rise contributions.

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Atmospheric correlation time measurements using coherent CO2 lidar

A pulsed TEA-CO2 lidar with coherent detection was used to measure the correlation time of backscatter from an ensemble of atmospheric aerosol particles which are illuminated by the pulsed radiation. The correlation time of the backscatter return signal is important in studies of atmospheric turbulence and its effects on optical propagation and backscatter. If the temporal coherence of the pulse is large enough, then the temporal coherence of the return signal is dominated by the turbulence and shear for a variety of interesting atmospheric conditions. Various techniques for correlation time measurement are discussed and evaluated.

Ancellet, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS)

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) program seeks to improve the physical understanding of sub-grid scale cloud processes and their representation in parameterization schemes. By improving the description and understanding of key cloud system processes, GCSS aims to develop the necessary parameterizations in climate and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. GCSS will address these issues mainly through the development and use of cloud-resolving or cumulus ensemble models to generate realizations of a set of archetypal cloud systems. The focus of GCSS is on mesoscale cloud systems, including precipitating convectively-driven cloud systems like MCS's and boundary layer clouds, rather than individual clouds, and on their large-scale effects. Some of the key scientific issues confronting GCSS that particularly relate to research activities in the central U.S. are presented.

Moncrieff, Mitch↗
NASA NTRS1997

Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for example, a tendency for the few models that predict boundary layer depth to have large values of evaporation and precipitation. Controlled experiments, in which aspects of model architecture are systematically varied within individual models, may be necessary to elucidate whether and how model characteristics influence simulations.

Gaffen, Dian J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Quasi-Equilibrium States in the Tropics Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Specific Features and Budget Analysis - Part 1

A series of long-term integrations using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model were performed by altering imposed environmental components to produce various quasi-equilibrium thermodynamic states. Model results show that the genesis of a warm/wet quasi-equilibrium state is mainly due to either strong vertical wind shear (from nudging) or large surface fluxes (from strong surface winds), while a cold/dry quasi-equilibrium state is attributed to a remarkably weakened mixed-wind shear (from vertical mixing due to deep convection) along with weak surface winds. In general, latent heat flux and net large-scale temperature forcing, the two dominant physical processes, dominate in the beginning stage of the simulated convective systems, then considerably weaken in the final stage, which leads to quasi-equilibrium states. A higher thermodynamic regime is found to produce a larger rainfall amount, as convective clouds are the leading source of rainfall over stratiform clouds even though the former occupy much less area. Moreover, convective clouds are more likely to occur in the presence of strong surface winds (latent heat flux), while stratiform clouds (especially the well-organized type) are favored in conditions with strong wind shear (large-scale forcing). The convective systems, which consist of distinct cloud types due to the variation in horizontal winds, are also found to propagate differently. Accordingly, convective systems with mixed-wind shear generally propagate in the direction of shear, while the system with strong (multidirectional) wind shear propagates in a more complex way. Based on the results from the temperature (Q1) and moisture (Q2) budgets, cloud-scale eddies are found to act as a hydrodynamic 'vehicle' that cascades the heat and moisture vertically. Several other specific features such as atmospheric stability, CAPE, and mass fluxes are also investigated and found to be significantly different between diverse quasi-equilibrium states. Detailed comparisons between the various states are presented.

Shie, C.-L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analyzing Tropical Waves Using the Parallel Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition Method: Preliminary Results from Hurricane Sandy

In this study, we discuss the performance of the parallel ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in the analysis of tropical waves that are associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation. To efficiently analyze high-resolution, global, multiple-dimensional data sets, we first implement multilevel parallelism into the ensemble EMD (EEMD) and obtain a parallel speedup of 720 using 200 eight-core processors. We then apply the parallel EEMD (PEEMD) to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from preselected data sets that represent (1) idealized tropical waves and (2) large-scale environmental flows associated with Hurricane Sandy (2012). Results indicate that the PEEMD is efficient and effective in revealing the major wave characteristics of the data, such as wavelengths and periods, by sifting out the dominant (wave) components. This approach has a potential for hurricane climate study by examining the statistical relationship between tropical waves and TC formation.

PEEMD↗
NASA NTRS2015

Physical Models of Layered Polar Firn Brightness Temperatures from 0.5 to 2 GHz

We investigate physical effects influencing 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures of layered polar firn to support the Ultra Wide Band Software Defined Radiometer (UWBRAD) experiment to be conducted in Greenland and in Antarctica. We find that because ice particle grain sizes are very small compared to the 0.5-2 GHz wavelengths, volume scattering effects are small. Variations in firn density over cm- to m-length scales, however, cause significant effects. Both incoherent and coherent models are used to examine these effects. Incoherent models include a 'cloud model' that neglects any reflections internal to the ice sheet, and the DMRT-ML and MEMLS radiative transfer codes that are publicly available. The coherent model is based on the layered medium implementation of the fluctuation dissipation theorem for thermal microwave radiation from a medium having a nonuniform temperature. Density profiles are modeled using a stochastic approach, and model predictions are averaged over a large number of realizations to take into account an averaging over the radiometer footprint. Density profiles are described by combining a smooth average density profile with a spatially correlated random process to model density fluctuations. It is shown that coherent model results after ensemble averaging depend on the correlation lengths of the vertical density fluctuations. If the correlation length is moderate or long compared with the wavelength (approximately 0.6x longer or greater for Gaussian correlation function without regard for layer thinning due to compaction), coherent and incoherent model results are similar (within approximately 1 K). However, when the correlation length is short compared to the wavelength, coherent model results are significantly different from the incoherent model by several tens of kelvins. For a 10-cm correlation length, the differences are significant between 0.5 and 1.1 GHz, and less for 1.1-2 GHz. Model results are shown to be able to match the v-pol SMOS data closely and predict the h-pol data for small observation angles.

layered polar firn emission↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Speed Networking and Large-scale Simulation in Geodynamics

Large-scale numerical simulation has been one of the most important approaches for understanding global geodynamical processes. In this approach, peta-scale floating point operations (pflops) are often required to carry out a single physically-meaningful numerical experiment. For example, to model convective flow in the Earth's core and generation of the geomagnetic field (geodynamo), simulation for one magnetic free-decay time (approximately 15000 years) with a modest resolution of 150 in three spatial dimensions would require approximately 0.2 pflops. If such a numerical model is used to predict geomagnetic secular variation over decades and longer, with e.g. an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation approach, approximately 30 (and perhaps more) independent simulations of similar scales would be needed for one data assimilation analysis. Obviously, such a simulation would require an enormous computing resource that exceeds the capacity of a single facility currently available at our disposal. One solution is to utilize a very fast network (e.g. 10Gb optical networks) and available middleware (e.g. Globus Toolkit) to allocate available but often heterogeneous resources for such large-scale computing efforts. At NASA GSFC, we are experimenting with such an approach by networking several clusters for geomagnetic data assimilation research. We shall present our initial testing results in the meeting.

Kuang, Weijia↗
NASA NTRS1986

Interstellar fossil Mg-26 and its possible relationship to excess meteoritic Mg-26

A plausible scenario is advanced for explainig a linear correlation found in some solar system solids between their Mg-26/Mg-24 isotopic ratios and their Al/Mg elemental abundance ratios. This scenario involves three stages: (1) the mechanical aggregation of an average ensemble of Al-bearing dust particles that is postulated to be modestly enriched in the Al/Mg abundance ratio because the aggregated particles themselves are; (2) the extraction, perhaps but not necessarily by hot distillation, of almost all Mg, leaving an aggregate with a large Al/Mg ratio and a large Mg-26 excess; and (3) the uptake of normal ambient Mg by the resulting hot Al-rich solid as it cools in Mg-rich vapor. A linear correlation in solids between their Mg-26/Mg-24 isotopic ratio and their aluminum enrichment may be a fossil correlation inherited from interstellar dust.

Clayton, Donald D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Community Supported Stardust Compendia

The Stardust cometary and interstellar collections present unprecedented challenges in sample preparation and analysis. The ensemble of approx.80 tracks and dozens of foil craters from the cometary collection for which we have analyses exhibits a bewildering complexity and diversity of materials. The interstellar collection is even more challenging, because of the extremely low fluence of interstellar dust, a relatively large background of secondary ejecta from impacts on the spacecraft, and the small size of interstellar dust, approximately three orders of magnitude smaller in mass than typical cometary particles. Unlike with the other returned sample collections, characterization of these samples beyond basic photo-documentation is not generally practical at JSC. Even among the other small-particle collections, currently the cosmic dust and Hayabusa samples, SEM/EDX can provide basic chemistry. This is not possible with Stardust particles without destructive and invasive sample preparation. Furthermore, SEM/EDX requires isolating small grains from adhering aerogel. A reliable technique to carry out this task does not exist. Complete characterization of particles requires coordinated analyses using synchrotron and electron-beam microprobes, which do not exist at any one lab. Thus, it was recognized since the Stardust Preliminary Examination in 2006 that characterization of the samples would rely on the worldwide community of Stardust Investigators. Here we announce the development of community-editable, wiki-style Stardust compendia that will support this effort. Our intention is that this will facilitate sample requests by providing basic characterization of tracks. We expect that this will also support comprehensive meta-analyses (global syntheses of analyses) of the collections.

Westphal, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Tropical impacts of SST forcing: A case study for 1987 versus 1988

The response of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) to large tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated by evaluating model simulations of the particularly contrasting summer monsoon seasons 1987 and 1988. These years are representative of the warm and cold phases, respectively, of a recent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. An ensemble averaging the results of three simulations was considered for each season, using monthly mean observed SST anomalies for June-August 1987 and 1988 as lower boundary forcing. Consistent with the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF)-analyzed winds, the simulations based on 1988 as compared to 1987 SST exhibit stronger upper-tropospheric irrotational circulation between the monsoon regions and the Southern Hemispheric sub-tropical anticyclones, a stronger Pacific Walker cell and a weaker subtropical westerly jet over the South Pacific. In the same vein, the modeled precipitation, indicating a more northerly position of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in 1988 compared with 1987, is supported by satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation and highly reflective clouds.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Study of the Response of Deep Tropical Clouds to Mesoscale Processes: Sensitivities to Microphysics, Radiation, and Surface Fluxes - Part 2

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the sensitivities of surface fluxes, explicit radiation, and ice microphysical processes on multi-day simulations of deep tropical convection over the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The simulations incorporate large-scale advective temperature and moisture forcing, as well as large-scale momentum, that are updated every time step on a periodic lateral boundary grid. This study shows that when surface fluxes are eliminated, the mean atmosphere is much cooler and drier, convection and CAPE are much weaker, precipitation is less, and cloud coverage in stratiform regions much greater. Surface fluxes using the TOGA COARE flux algorithm are weaker than with the aerodynamic formulation, but closer to the observed fluxes. In addition, similar trends noted above for the case without surface fluxes are produced for the TOGA flux case, albeit to a much lesser extent. The elimination of explicit shortwave and longwave radiation is found to have only minimal effects on the mean thermodynamics, convection, and precipitation. However explicit radiation does have a significant impact on cloud temperatures and structure above 200 mb and on the overall mean vertical circulation. The removal of ice processes produces major changes in the structure of the cloud. Much of the liquid water is transported aloft and into anvils above the melting layer (600 mb), leaving narrow, but intense bands of rainfall in convective regions. The elimination of melting processes leads to greater hydrometeor mass below the melting layer, and produces a much warmer and moister boundary layer, leading to a greater mean CAPE. Finally, the elimination of the graupel species has only a small impact on mean total precipitation, thermodynamics, and dynamics of the simulation, but does produce much greater snow mass just above the melting layer. Some of these results differ from previous CRM studies of tropical systems, which is likely due to the type of simulated system, total time integration, and model setup.

Johnson, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications

The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.

Posselt, Derek J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Coherent Eigenmodes in Homogeneous MHD Turbulence

The statistical mechanics of Fourier models of ideal, homogeneous, incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence is discussed, along with their relevance for dissipative magnetofluids. Although statistical theory predicts that Fourier coefficients of fluid velocity and magnetic field are zero-mean random variables, numerical simulations clearly show that certain coefficients have a non-zero mean value that can be very large compared to the associated standard deviation, i.e., we have coherent structure. We use eigenanalysis of the modal covariance matrices in the probability density function to explain this phenomena in terms of `broken ergodicity', which is defined to occur when dynamical behavior does not match ensemble predictions on very long time-scales. We provide examples from 2-D and 3-D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of homogeneous turbulence, and show new results from long-time simulations of MHD turbulence with and without a mean magnetic field

Shebalin, John V.↗