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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Accuracy of Machine Learning Forecasts

To improve the accuracy of forecasting in machine learning, we must investigate multiple machine learning models and see how accurately they can predict values after training. We used seven machine learning models to try and get more accurate predictions. The models that were used were ARIMA, SES, MLP, CART, LightGBM, and XGBoost. We used a processed dataset from a Terminal at LAX that had the number of people traveling through terminal X every hour in March from 2015-2019. We trained our models with the dates March 6 - March 19 to predict the value for March 20th and the hours 6:00 am to 6:00 pm since those are the most popular traveling hours. By using the different models, we had varying results of accuracy when estimating the amount of people traveling through terminal X on March 20th. We know that machine learning models are helpful for forecasting and by seeing how accurately these models can predict, we can see how forecasting can be helpful for other issues. Using these methods, airports can use forecasting to predict the amount of people coming in and out and can use these predictions to prepare their resource management, operational efficiency, and overall passenger experience.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the Domain of Applicability of Machine Learning Models with Limited Data for Drug Property Prediction

Accurate machine learning models for predicting small molecule interactions with biological targets are essential for therapeutic discovery, biothreat response, and computational drug design, but their performance is often limited for understudied targets with sparse experimental data. To address this challenge, we developed and evaluated methods to improve molecular property prediction under low-data conditions, using the NimA-related kinase (NEK) family as a proof-of-concept. This work focused on two complementary goals within the ATOM Modeling PipeLine (AMPL) and the Generative Molecular Design (GMD) loop: expanding model applicability through transfer learning, representation learning, feature scaling, sampling strategies, and active-learning-inspired compound selection; and enabling efficient virtual screening to prioritize compounds that balance predicted activity, design objectives, and synthetic accessibility.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection for PMT Data Quality Monitoring in the SBN and DUNE

Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).

Colón Santana, Juan A. [Unlisted, US, IL]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Arbitrary Polynomial Separations in Trainable Quantum Machine Learning

Recent theoretical results in quantum machine learning have demonstrated a general trade-off between the expressive power of quantum neural networks (QNNs) and their trainability; as a corollary of these results, practical exponential separations in expressive power over classical machine learning models are believed to be infeasible as such QNNs take a time to train that is exponential in the model size. We here circumvent these negative results by constructing a hierarchy of efficiently trainable QNNs that exhibit unconditionally provable, polynomial memory separations of arbitrary constant degree over classical neural networks—including state-of-the-art models, such as Transformers—in performing a classical sequence modeling task. This construction is also computationally efficient, as each unit cell of the introduced class of QNNs only has constant gate complexity. We show that contextuality—informally, a quantitative notion of semantic ambiguity—is the source of the expressivity separation, suggesting that other learning tasks with this property may be a natural setting for the use of quantum learning algorithms.

Anschuetz, Eric R. [California Institute of Techno↗
DOE OSTI2026

Custom-trained Machine-learning Interatomic Potentials: ZnCl2 Aqueous Solution

This dataset was generated using an iterative active-learning strategy implemented in the ArcaNN software package (https://github.com/arcann-chem/arcann_training) to train machine-learning interatomic potentials for aqueous ZnCl2 solutions. Each active-learning cycle consisted of three stages: training, exploration, and labeling. The initial training set combined configurations generated in this work from enhanced-sampling ab initio molecular dynamics simulations with configurations from a previously reported neural-network-potential study of aqueous ZnCl2. The enhanced-sampling ab initio molecular dynamics simulations involved Zn–Cl separation and the chloride coordination number around Zn²? as collective variables. These configurations served as the seed dataset. Subsequent active-learning cycles expanded the training set by identifying and labeling configurations that were poorly represented by the current models, thereby improving coverage of ion-association states and changes in local coordination and charge-state environments relevant to the solution free-energy landscape. For all selected configurations, single-point calculations of the total energies and atomic forces were performed within density functional theory using the CP2K Quickstep module. Reference calculations employed the revPBE-D3 and r2SCAN exchange-correlation functionals. Motivated by recent work on aqueous Zn²?, the main revPBE calculations omitted D3 dispersion contributions involving Zn²?, while retaining the D3 correction for water and chloride. For comparison, fully dispersion-corrected revPBE-D3 reference calculations were also performed, with D3 applied to all species, including Zn²?. Valence electrons were treated explicitly, while core electrons were represented using norm-conserving Goedecker–Teter–Hutter pseudopotentials. The wave functions were expanded using the mixed Gaussian-and-plane-wave scheme with TZV2P-MOLOPT basis sets for all elements and a 600 Ry auxiliary plane-wave cutoff for the electron density. Self-consistent-field convergence was accelerated using the orbital-transformation and Direct Inversion in the Iterative Subspace algorithms, with a convergence threshold of 10?6. All single-point calculations were performed in periodic orthorhombic cells. The CELL_REF keyword in CP2K was used to define a fixed reference cell with a box length of 25 Å. This treatment ensured a consistent reference for configurations extracted from NpT trajectories with fluctuating cell dimensions. The resulting DFT energies and atomic forces constitute the ground-truth labels used to train the MLIPs. The resulting MLIP was trained for aqueous ZnCl2 solutions spanning concentrations from 0 to 30 molal and a broad pH range, from strongly acidic to strongly basic conditions. Representative examples of configurations included in the MLIP training dataset are provided below. These include 1) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the revPBE-D3 level, with D3 dispersion interactions involving Zn2+ excluded (revPBE-wo-D3). 2) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the fully dispersion-corrected revPBE-D3 level, with D3 interactions applied to all species, including Zn2+ (revPBE-D3). 3) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the r2SCAN level of theory (r2SCAN).

Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan [Pacific Northwest Nation↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Experiment with LLMs as Database Design Tutors: Persistent Equity and Fairness Challenges in Online Learning

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, their capacity to replace humans as their surrogates is also improving. As increasing numbers of intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) are embracing the integration of LLMs for digital tutoring, questions are arising as to how effective they are and if their hallucinatory behaviors diminish their perceived advantages. One critical question that is seldom asked if the availability, plurality, and relative weaknesses in the reasoning process of LLMs are contributing to the much discussed digital divide and equity and fairness in online learning. In this paper, we present an experiment with database design theory assignments and demonstrate that while their capacity to reason logically is improving, LLMs are still prone to serious errors. We demonstrate that in online learning and in the absence of a human instructor, LLMs could introduce inequity in the form of “wrongful” tutoring that could be devastatingly harmful for learners, which we call ignorant bias, in increasingly popular digital learning. We also show that significant challenges remain for STEM subjects, especially for subjects for which sound and free online tutoring systems exist. Based on the set of use cases, we formulate a possible direction for an effective ITS for online database learning classes of the future.

Jamil, Hasan M. (ORCID:0000000231243780)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

From IMT Device Measurements to Network-Level Consequences: When Learning Suppresses Beyond-LIF Neuron Dynamics

Emerging neuromorphic devices such as insulator--metal transition (IMT) devices exhibit complex temporal dynamics, including slow internal state memory, hysteresis, and burst-like firing, which are poorly captured by conventional leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) neurons. However, it remains unclear when such dynamics influence learning and inference at the network level, particularly under commonly used unsupervised plasticity rules. We present a controlled, full-stack co-design study spanning experimental characterization of individual IMT devices, compact neuron model development, and large-scale spiking network simulations with identical architectures and learning rules. Rather than optimizing benchmark accuracy, our goal is to diagnose when neuron-level dynamics survive learning and competition, and when they are suppressed, to inform the co-design of devices, networks, and learning rules that can exploit beyond-LIF complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extending Power of Nature from Binary Problems to Real-Valued Graph Learning in Real World

Nature performs complex computations constantly at clearly lower cost and higher performance than digital computers. It is crucial to understand how to harness the unique computational power of nature in Machine Learning (ML). In the past decade, besides the development of Neural Networks (NNs), the community has also relentlessly explored nature-powered ML paradigms. Although most of them are still predominantly theoretical, a new practical paradigm enabled by the recent advent of CMOS-compatible room-temperature nature-based computers has emerged. By harnessing the nature's power of entropy increase, this paradigm can solve binary learning problems delivering immense speedup and energy savings compared with NNs, while maintaining comparable accuracy. Regrettably, its values to the real world are highly constrained by its binary nature. A clear pathway to its extension to real-valued problems remains elusive. This paper aims to unleash this pathway by proposing a novel end-to-end Nature-Powered Graph Learning (NP-GL) framework. Specifically, through a three-dimensional co-design, NP-GL can leverage the nature's power of entropy increase to efficiently solve real-valued graph learning problems. Experimental results across 4 real-world applications with 6 datasets demonstrate that NP-GL delivers, on average, 6970X speedup and 10^5x energy consumption reduction with comparable or even higher accuracy than Graph Neural Networks (GNNs).

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Few measurement shots challenge generalization in learning to classify entanglement

The ability to extract general laws from a few known examples depends on the complexity of the problem and on the amount of training data. In the quantum setting, the learner's generalization performance is further challenged by the destructive nature of quantum measurements that, together with the no-cloning theorem, limits the amount of information that can be extracted from each training sample. In this paper we focus on hybrid quantum learning techniques where classical machine-learning methods are paired with quantum algorithms and show that, in some settings, the uncertainty coming from a few measurement shots can be the dominant source of errors. We identify an instance of this possibly general issue by focusing on the classification of maximally entangled vs. separable states, showing that this toy problem becomes challenging for learners unaware of entanglement theory. Finally, we introduce an estimator based on classical shadows that performs better in the big data, few copy regime. Our results show that the naive application of classical machine-learning methods to the quantum setting is problematic, and that a better theoretical foundation of quantum learning is required.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factorization Machine‐Based Active Learning for Functional Materials Design with Optimal Initial Data

The optimization of functional materials is important to enhance their properties, but their complex geometries pose great challenges to optimization. Data-driven algorithms efficiently navigate such complex design spaces by learning relationships between material structures and performance metrics to discover high-performance functional materials. Surrogate-based active learning, continually improving its surrogate model by iteratively including high-quality data points, has emerged as a cost-effective data-driven approach. Furthermore, it can be coupled with quantum computing to enhance optimization processes, especially when paired with a special form of surrogate model (i.e., quadratic unconstrained binary optimization), formulated by factorization machine (FM). However, current practices often overlook the variability in design space sizes when determining the initial data size for optimization. In this work, we investigate the optimal initial data sizes required for efficient convergence across various design space sizes. By employing averaged piecewise linear regression, we identify initiation points where convergence begins, highlighting the crucial role of employing adequate initial data in achieving efficient optimization. These results contribute to the efficient optimization of functional materials by ensuring faster convergence and reducing computational costs in FM-based active learning.

active learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate and Data‐Efficient Micro X‐ray Diffraction Phase Identification Using Multitask Learning: Application to Hydrothermal Fluids

Traditional analysis of highly distorted micro X‐ray diffraction (μ‐XRD) patterns from hydrothermal fluid environments is a time‐consuming process, often requiring substantial data preprocessing and labeled experimental data. Herein, the potential of deep learning with a multitask learning (MTL) architecture to overcome these limitations is demonstrated. MTL models are trained to identify phase information in μ‐XRD patterns, minimizing the need for labeled experimental data and masking preprocessing steps. Notably, MTL models show superior accuracy compared to binary classification convolutional neural networks. Additionally, introducing a tailored cross‐entropy loss function improves MTL model performance. Most significantly, MTL models tuned to analyze raw and unmasked XRD patterns achieve close performance to models analyzing preprocessed data, with minimal accuracy differences. This work indicates that advanced deep learning architectures like MTL can automate arduous data handling tasks, streamline the analysis of distorted XRD patterns, and reduce the reliance on labor‐intensive experimental datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anisotropic physics-regularized interpretable machine learning of microstructure evolution

Anisotropic Physics-Regularized Interpretable Machine Learning Microstructure Evolution (APRIMME) is a general-purpose machine learning solution for grain growth simulations. In prior work, PRIMME employed a deep neural network to predict site-specific migration as a function of its neighboring sites to model normal, isotropic, grain growth behavior. This work aims to extend this method by incorporating grain boundary misorientation-based grain growth behavior. APRIMME is trained on anisotropic simulations created using the Monte Carlo-Potts (MCP) model. Furthermore, the results of this work are compared statistically using grain radius, number of sides per grain, mean neighborhood misorientations, and the standard deviation of triple junction dihedral angles, and are found to match in most cases. The exceptions are small and seem to be related to two causes: (1) the deterministic model of APRIMME is learning from the stochastic simulations of MCP, which seems to accentuate triple junction behaviors; and, (2) a bias against very small grains is made evident in a quicker decrease in grains than expected at the beginning of an APRIMME simulation. APRIMME is also evaluated for its general ability to capture anisotropic grain growth behavior by first investigating different test case initial conditions, including a circle grain, three grain, and hexagonal grain microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of algorithms for augmenting and replacing conventional process control using reinforcement learning

Here, this work seeks to allow for the online operation and training of model-free reinforcement learning (RL) agents but limit the risk to system equipment and personnel. The parallel implementation of RL alongside more conventional process control (CPC) allows for the RL algorithm to learn from CPC. The past performance of both methods are assessed on a continuous basis allowing for a transition from CPC to RL and, if needed, transitioning back to CPC from RL. This allows for the RL algorithm to slowly and safely assume control of the process without significant degradation in control performance. It is shown that the RL can derive a near optimal policy even when coupled with a suboptimal CPC. It is also demonstrated that the coupled RL-CPC algorithm learns at a faster rate than traditional RL methods of exploration while the algorithm’s performance does not deteriorate below CPC, even when exposed to an unknown operating condition.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

TANTE: Time-adaptive operator learning via neural Taylor expansion

Operator learning for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) has seen rapid progress in recent years, enabling efficient approximation of complex spatiotemporal dynamics. However, most existing methods rely on fixed time step sizes during rollout, which limits their ability to adapt to varying temporal complexity and often leads to error accumulation. In this work, we propose the Time-Adaptive Transformer with Neural Taylor Expansion (TANTE), a novel operator-learning framework that produces continuous-time predictions with adaptive step sizes. TANTE predicts future states by performing a Taylor expansion at the current state, where neural networks learn both the higher-order temporal derivatives and the local radius of convergence. This allows the model to dynamically adjust its rollout based on the local behavior of the solution, thereby reducing cumulative error and improving computational efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TANTE across a wide range of PDE benchmarks, achieving superior accuracy and adaptability compared to fixed-step baselines, delivering accuracy gains of 60-80 % and speed-ups of 30-40 % at inference time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Continual learning in the presence of repetition

Continual learning (CL) provides a framework for training models in ever-evolving environments. Although re-occurrence of previously seen objects or tasks is common in real-world problems, the concept of repetition in the data stream is not often considered in standard benchmarks for CL. Unlike with the rehearsal mechanism in buffer-based strategies, where sample repetition is controlled by the strategy, repetition in the data stream naturally stems from the environment. This report provides a summary of the CLVision challenge at CVPR 2023, which focused on the topic of repetition in class-incremental learning. The report initially outlines the challenge objective and then describes three solutions proposed by finalist teams that aim to effectively exploit the repetition in the stream to learn continually. The experimental results from the challenge highlight the effectiveness of ensemble-based solutions that employ multiple versions of similar modules, each trained on different but overlapping subsets of classes. This report underscores the transformative potential of taking a different perspective in CL by employing repetition in the data stream to foster innovative strategy design.

Class-incremental learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring Fracture Hydromechanical Evolution in the Lab and Field Using Unsupervised Metric Learning

Fractures evolve in time through thermal‐hydraulic‐mechanical‐chemical (THMC) processes that alter their long‐range hydraulic transport properties and modify subsurface behavior and activities. The location of subsurface fractures makes it necessary to use remote sensing techniques such as passive or active seismic monitoring for fracture characterization. In this paper, we develop a machine learning approach to monitor the evolution of fracture properties using passive seismic sources in a laboratory setting and using active seismic monitoring from the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, at a depth of 1.25 km in amphibolite rock during stimulation of natural fractures as well as during induced fracturing. The unsupervised metric learning technique applies tandem neural networks (twin (Siamese) or triplet) with contrastive loss and adaptive margins to track slowly varying systems for which class or similarity labels are not available. The approach adopts locality‐sensitive hashing to divide time‐ordered contiguous data into an arbitrary number of pseudo‐classes. Contrastive‐loss training with many hash bins generates an evolving latent‐space trajectory. This approach enables unsupervised metric learning for seismic data stacks under the condition of contiguous state sampling and slowly varying fracture properties. The displacement discontinuity theory provides a mechanistic foundation for the fracture‐dependent trajectories that are related to relaxation of fractures with time‐dependent specific stiffness responding to changes in stress or fluid saturation.

02 PETROLEUM↗