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At least 289 records · Page 16

Monitoring of Observation Errors in the Assimilation of Satellite Ozone Data

The stratospheric ozone layer protects life on Earth from the harmful effects of solar ultravioiet radiation. The ozone layer is currently in a fragile state because of depletion caused by man-made chemicals, especially chlorofluorocarbons. The state of the ozone layer is being monitored and evaluated by scientific experts around the world, in order to help policy makers assess the impacts of international protocols that control the production and release of ozone depleting chemicals. Scientists use a variety ozone measurements and models in order to form a comprehensive picture about the current state of the ozone layer, and to predict the future behavior (expected to be a recovery, as the abundance of the depleting chemicals decreases). Among the data sets used, those from satellite-borne instruments have the advantage of providing a wealth of information about the ozone distribution over most of the globe. Several instruments onboard American and international satellites make measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, from which atmospheric ozone amounts are estimated; long-term measurement programs enable monitoring of trends in ozone. However, the characteristics of satellite instruments change in time. For example, the instrument lenses through which measurements are made may deteriorate over time, or the satellite orbit may drift so that measurements over each location are made later and later in the day. These changes may increase the errors in the retrieved ozone amounts, and degrade the quality of estimated ozone amounts and of their variability. Our work focuses on combining the satellite ozone data with global models that capture atmospheric motion and ozone chemistry, using advanced statistical techniques: this is known as data assimilation. Our method provides a three-dimensional global ozone distribution that is consistent with both the satellite measurements and with our understanding of processes (described in the models) that control ozone distribution. Through the monitoring of statistical properties of the agreement between the data and the model, this approach also enables us to detect changes in the quality of ozone data retrieved from satellite-borne instrument measurements. This paper demonstrates that calculations of the changes in satellite data quality, and the impact these changes on the estimates of the global ozone distribution, can assist in maintaining the uniform quality of the satellite ozone data throughout the lifetime of these instruments, thus contributing to our understanding of long-term ozone change.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Lifetime of binary asteroids versus gravitational encounters and collisions

We investigate the effect on the dynamics of a binary asteroid in the case of a near encounter with a third body. The dynamics of the binary is modeled as a two-body problem perturbed by an approaching body in the following ways: near encounters and collisions with a component of the system. In each case, the typical value of the two-body energy variation is estimated, and a random walk for the cumulative effect is assumed. Results are applied to some binary asteroid candidates. The main conclusion is that the collisional disruption is the dominant effect, giving lifetimes comparable to or larger than the age of the solar system.

Chauvineau, Bertrand↗

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Chappell, L. J.↗

Sources and sinks of atmospheric N2O and the possible ozone reduction due to industrial fixed nitrogen fertilizers

The terrestrial and marine nitrogen cycles are examined in an attempt to clarify how the atmospheric content of N2O is controlled. We review available data on the various reservoirs of fixed nitrogen, the transfer rates between the reservoirs, and estimate how the reservoir contents and transfer rates can change under man's influence. It is seen that sources, sinks and lifetime of atmospheric N2O are not understood well. Based on our limited knowledge of the stability of atmospheric N2O we conclude that future growth in the usage of industrial fixed nitrogen fertilizers could cause a 1% to 2% global ozone reduction in the next 50 years. However, centuries from now the ozone layer could be reduced by as much as 10% if soils are the major source of atmospheric N2O.

Liu, S. C.↗

The origin of SNC meteorites - An alternative to Mars

The possibility that certain very young meteorites originated as impact melts on a large asteroid or asteroids is investigated. Calculations of the thermal evolution of impact melt show that the solidification time should be long enough to produce igneous or quasi-cumulate textures within rocks if the crater is large enough and if the initial clast concentration is low, at least in some portion of the melt sheet. The number of collisions within the asteroid belt which would produce craters of the requisite size is calculated. Using an estimate of the current size distribution of asteroids, it is found that over 3000 such collisions should have occurred during the lifetime of the solar system. Excavation and ejection of the solidified melt by a subsequent impact would be dynamically easy because of the low escape velocities of even the largest asteroids but improbable because of the depth that must be sampled. A second, sufficiently large impact is rare, so only the products of one such double event have been obtained up to now.

Vickery, A. M.↗

Identification of some key parameters limiting the performance of high-efficiency silicon solar cells

This paper presents, for the first time, a detailed sensitivity analysis of key cell parameters on silicon-cell efficiency by incorporating advanced solar cell physics in a sophisticated numerical simulation program. It delineates the true physical barriers to obtaining a high-efficiency silicon solar cell. Specific parameters presently limiting cell efficiency are identified to be the minority carrier lifetime and the recombination velocities at the front and back surfaces. Practical cell efficiencies in the vicinity of 22 percent are estimated to be attainable by using good quality silicon crystal and substantially reducing surface recombination velocities.

Mokashi, Anant R.↗

Carbon Dioxide Observational Platform System (CO-OPS), feasibility study

The Carbon Dioxide Observational Platform System (CO-OPS) is a near-space, geostationary, multi-user, unmanned microwave powered monitoring platform system. This systems engineering feasibility study addressed identified existing requirements such as: carbon dioxide observational data requirements, communications requirements, and eye-in-the-sky requirements of other groups like the Defense Department, the Forestry Service, and the Coast Guard. In addition, potential applications in: earth system science, space system sciences, and test and verification (satellite sensors and data management techniques) were considered. The eleven month effort is summarized. Past work and methods of gathering the required observational data were assessed and rough-order-of magnitude cost estimates have shown the CO-OPS system to be most cost effective (less than $30 million within a 10 year lifetime). It was also concluded that there are no technical, schedule, or obstacles that would prevent achieving the objectives of the total 5-year CO-OPS program.

Bouquet, D. L.↗

Chemical spray pyrolysis of Tl-Ba-Ca-Cu-O high-T(sub c) superconductors for high-field bitter magnets

The deposition of Tl-Ba-Ca-Cu-O thick films by spray pyrolyzing a Ba-Ca-Cu-O precursor film and diffusing thallium into the film to form the superconducting phase is examined. This approach was taken to reduce exposure to thallium and its health and safety hazards. The Tl-Ba-Ca-Cu-O system was selected because it has very attractive features which make it appealing to device and manufacturing engineering. Tl-Ba-Ca-Cu-O will accommodate a number of superconducting phases. This attribute makes it very forgiving to stoichiometric fluctuations in the bulk and film. It has excellent thermal and chemical stability, and appears to be relatively insensitive to chemical impurities. Oxygen is tightly bound into the systems, consequently there is no orthorhombic (conductor) to tetragonal (insulator) transition which would affect a component's lifetime. More significantly, the thallium based superconductors appear to have harder magnetic properties than the other high-Tc oxide ceramics. Estimates using magnetoresistance measurements indicate that at 77 K Tl2Ba2CaCu2O10 will have an upper critical field, H(sub c2) fo 26 Tesla for applied fields parallel to the c-axis and approximately 1000 Tesla for fields oriented in the a-b plane. Results to date have shown that superconducting films can be reproducibly deposited on 100 oriented MgO substrates. One film had a zero resistance temperature of 111.5 K. Furthermore, x ray diffraction analysis of the films showed preferential c-axis orientation parallel to the plane of the substrate. These results have now made it possible to consider the manufacture of a superconducting tape wire which can be configured into a topology useful for high-field magnet designs. The research which leads to the preparation of these films and plans for further development are reviewed.

Derochemont, L. Pierre↗

Battery Health Quantification for TDRS Spacecraft by Using Signature Discriminability Measurement

The NASA/GSFC Space Network Project Office (SN) currently operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous TDRS spacecraft launched over the past 30 years. The SN project collects up to 16.5 Gigabytes of telemetry every month. Generally, the spacecraft health and functionality are obtained by the use of real-time telemetry data for the multiple spacecraft subsystems, which are transmitted to the main ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, NM. Recently, the SN has instituted a program of Big Data to analyze the large amounts of data using a variety of tools including Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, development of training sets, and a variety of mathematical modeling tools. The goal is to improve spacecraft management and obtain a more accurate prediction of the spacecraft end of life. The combination of these efforts with those of the Aerospace Corporation, which has a contract with the SN to produce yearly reliability estimates for the TDRS fleet, will be performed. This paper presents a new concept called telemetry quality quantification (TQQ) and discusses the progress that has been made in battery performance estimation for the second-generation TDRS spacecraft using a signature discriminability measures (SDM) algorithm combined with the Aerospace Corp. battery life estimation models. This activity is important because many of the TDRS fleet of spacecraft have exceeded their on-orbit design lifetime and, therefore, NASA must carefully manage the spacecraft to continue operations while avoiding an end-of-mission scenario that leaves a non-functioning spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit.

Ma, Kenneth Y.↗

Forward-bias capacitance and current measurements for determining lifetimes and band narrowing in p-n junction solar cells

A new method is described and illustrated for determining the minority-carrier diffusion length and lifetime in the base region of p-n junction solar cells. The method requires only capacitance measurements at the device terminals and its accuracy is estimated to be + or - 5%. It is applied to a set of silicon p-n junction devices and the values of the diffusion lengths agree with those obtained using the current response to X-ray excitation but disagree with those obtained by the OCVD method. The reasons for the relative inaccuracy of OCVD applied to silicon devices are discussed. The capacitance method includes corrections for a two-dimensional fringing effects which occur in small area devices. For a device having highly-doped base region and surface (emitter) layer, the method can be extended to enable the determination of material properties of the degenerately doped surface layer. These material properties include the phenomenological emitter lifetime and a measure of the energy band-gap narrowing in the emitter. An alternate method for determining the energy band-gap narrowing from temperature dependence of emitter current is discussed and demonstrated.

Neugroschel, A.↗

Space Station Freedom on-orbit crew time availability - A limited resource

Because of the enormity, complexity, and duration of the Space Station Freedom (SSF) project, the available crew time is at a premium. This paper discusses the methodology for determining, early in the program, estimates of crew time which will be available within pressurized areas of intravehicular activity, from the First Element Launch (FEL) throughout the lifetime of the SSF. The methodology utilizes the baseline assembly sequence (November 1989) as a guideline. The total hours provided are categorized by periods, where a period is comprised of the time between two major SSF Program assembly milestones; e.g., FEL to Man Tended Capability (MTS), MTS to Permanently Manned Capability (PMC), or PMC to Assembly Complete (AC). After AC, total available crew time is presented on a yearly basis.

Garegnani, Jerry J.↗

Observations of the remnants of the ultrarelativistic electrons injected by the strong SSC of 24 March 1991

Data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft has shown the presence near L = 1.9 of the remnants of the ultrarelativistic electrons (above 15 MeV) injected into the magnetosphere on 24 March 1991. The decay of the electrons has been tracked since July 1992. The electron e-folding lifetime is in the range of six to twelve months, and the location in L of the peak intensity moved inward by approximately 0.05 units in one year. The inferred electron lifetime is similar to that of approximately 0.5 MeV electrons, which is in agreement with extrapolation to higher energies of the theoretical estimates of Lyons and Thorne (1972).

Looper, M. D.↗

The Distribution of Snow Black Carbon observed in the Arctic and Compared to the GISS-PUCCINI Model

In this study, we evaluate the ability of the latest NASA GISS composition-climate model, GISS-E2- PUCCINI, to simulate the spatial distribution of snow BC (sBC) in the Arctic relative to present-day observations. Radiative forcing due to BC deposition onto Arctic snow and sea ice is also estimated. Two sets of model simulations are analyzed, where meteorology is linearly relaxed towards National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and towards NASA Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses. Results indicate that the modeled concentrations of sBC are comparable with presentday observations in and around the Arctic Ocean, except for apparent underestimation at a few sites in the Russian Arctic. That said, the model has some biases in its simulated spatial distribution of BC deposition to the Arctic. The simulations from the two model runs are roughly equal, indicating that discrepancies between model and observations come from other sources. Underestimation of biomass burning emissions in Northern Eurasia may be the main cause of the low biases in the Russian Arctic. Comparisons of modeled aerosol BC (aBC) with long-term surface observations at Barrow, Alert, Zeppelin and Nord stations show significant underestimation in winter and spring concentrations in the Arctic (most significant in Alaska), although the simulated seasonality of aBC has been greatly improved relative to earlier model versions. This is consistent with simulated biases in vertical profiles of aBC, with underestimation in the lower and middle troposphere but overestimation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, suggesting that the wet removal processes in the current model may be too weak or that vertical transport is too rapid, although the simulated BC lifetime seems reasonable. The combination of observations and modeling provides a comprehensive distribution of sBC over the Arctic. On the basis of this distribution, we estimate the decrease in snow and sea ice albedo and the resulting radiative forcing. We suggest that the albedo reduction due to BC deposition presents significant space-time variations, with highest mean reductions of 1.25% in the Russian Arctic, which are much larger than those in other Arctic regions (0.39% to 0.64 %). The averaged value over the Arctic north of 66degN is 0.4-0.6% during spring, leading to regional surface radiative forcings of 0.7, 1.1 and 1.0Wm(exp−2) in spring 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively.

Dou, T.↗

Energy-Systems Economic Analysis

Energy Systems Economic Analysis (ESEA) program is flexible analytical tool for rank ordering of alternative energy systems. Basic ESEA approach derives an estimate of those costs incurred as result of purchasing, installing and operating an energy system. These costs, suitably aggregated into yearly costs over lifetime of system, are divided by expected yearly energy output to determine busbar energy costs. ESEA, developed in 1979, is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution.

Doane, J.↗

The ages of globular cluster stars - Effects of rotation on pre-main-sequence, main-sequence, and turnoff evolution

Evolutionary sequences for low-metallicity stars (Z ranging from 0.001 to 0.0001) to study the effects of internal stellar rotation on the evolutionary time scales in the pre-main sequence, the main sequence (MS), and around the MS turnoff. Although a substantial amount of angular momentum remains in the interior, rotation is only a minor perturbation on the structure and ages of globular cluster stars. Even models with large initial angular momenta have MS lifetimes that are within 1 percent of those of standard models of the same mass and composition. Therefore, rotation does not affect age estimates of globular clusters from isochrone fitting. Furthermore, the models suggest that because rotation is not likely to affect horizontal-branch (HB) morphology, it does not affect significantly age estimates from the Delta-V method. Nevertheless, the internal angular momentum in the models is consistent with observations of surface rotational velocities on the HB, which require the preservation of a large reservoir of internal angular momentum.

Deliyannis, Constantine P.↗

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather↗

On-Orbit Lunar Modulation Transfer Function Measurements for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Spatial quality of an imaging sensor can be estimated by evaluating its modulation transfer function (MTF) from many different sources such as a sharp edge, a pulse target, or bar patterns with different spatial frequencies. These well-defined targets are frequently used for prelaunch laboratory tests, providing very reliable and accurate MTF measurements. A laboratory-quality edge input source was included in the spatial-mode operation of the Spectroradiometric Calibration Assembly (SRCA), which is one of the onboard calibrators of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Since not all imaging satellites have such an instrument, SRCA MTF estimations can be used as a reference for an on-orbit lunar MTF algorithm and results. In this paper, the prelaunch spatial quality characterization process from the Integrated Alignment Collimator and SRCA is briefly discussed. Based on prelaunch MTF calibration using the SRCA, a lunar MTF algorithm is developed and applied to the lifetime on-orbit Terra and Aqua MODIS lunar collections. In each lunar collection, multiple scan-directionMoon-to-background transition profiles are aligned by the subpixel edge locations from a parametric Fermi function fit. Corresponding accumulated edge profiles are filtered and interpolated to obtain the edge spread function (ESF). The MTF is calculated by applying a Fourier transformation on the line spread function through a simple differentiation of the ESF. The lifetime lunar MTF results are analyzed and filtered by a relationship with the Sun-Earth-MODIS angle. Finally, the filtered lunarMTF values are compared to the SRCA MTF results. This comparison provides the level of accuracy for on-orbit MTF estimations validated through prelaunch SRCA measurements. The lunar MTF values had larger uncertainty than the SRCA MTF results; however, the ratio mean of lunarMTF fit and SRCA MTF values is within 2% in the 250- and 500-m bands. Based on the MTF measurement uncertainty range, the suggested lunar MTF algorithm can be applied to any on-orbit imaging sensor with lunar calibration capability.

Choi, Taeyong↗

On the temporal variation of stratospheric aerosol size and mass during the first 18 months following the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon

Baloon-borne particle counters at Laramie and in southern Texas are used to investigate the size and mass distribution of the aerosol which formed in the stratosphere during the first 18 months following the volcanic eruption of El Chichon. The latter appears to have reached a peak at Laramie in early 1983 and began a decline in May. Measurements of average aerosol radius versus time are used to estimate a sulfuric acid concentration of about 10 to the 7th per cu cm 40 days after the eruption and a net acid vapor lifetime of 25-50 days in the 18-25-km altitude region.

Hofmann, D. J.↗