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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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This white paper outlines the different photovoltaic modeling tools that DOE has funded that help predict the amount of energy a solar array will be able to generate during its lifetime.
Abstract Diagnosing lithium-ion battery health and predicting future degradation is essential for driving design improvements in the laboratory and ensuring safe and reliable operation over a product’s expected lifetime. However, accurate battery health diagnostics and prognostics is challenging due to the unavoidable influence of cell-to-cell manufacturing variability and time-varying operating circumstances experienced in the field. Machine learning approaches informed by simulation, experiment, and field data show enormous promise to predict the evolution of battery health with use; however, until recently, the research community has focused on deterministic modeling methods, largely ignoring the cell-to-cell performance and aging variability inherent to all batteries. To truly make informed decisions regarding battery design in the lab or control strategies for the field, it is critical to characterize the uncertainty in a model’s predictions. After providing an overview of lithium-ion battery degradation, this paper reviews the current state-of-the-art probabilistic machine learning models for health diagnostics and prognostics. Details of the various methods, their advantages, and limitations are discussed in detail with a primary focus on probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification. Last, future trends and opportunities for research and development are discussed.
The oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is a key anodic half-cell reaction that accompanies several critical electrochemical reduction reactions of interest to a variety of applications. Despite steady advances in understanding and qualitatively predicting OER activity and selectivity trends, a comprehensive description or prediction of material aqueous (in)stability and degradation mechanisms remains elusive, even though these processes critically influence device lifetime and economic feasibility. In this work, we investigate the interplay, or lack thereof, between OER activity and material aqueous stability across rutile oxides, with a particular focus on iridium oxide (IrO 2 ). By applying a Born–Haber cycle, we calculate the thermodynamic driving force for metal dissolution as a function of the applied bias and electrolyte conditions. We apply interpretable machine learning techniques, including principal component analysis and symbolic regression, to analyze trends across rutile oxides and find that key thermodynamic descriptors for OER activity and surface stability are only very weakly correlated. Instead, the local atomic environment─especially electronic structure signatures for interactions between the active site and its neighbors─plays a more important role in predicting material stability. Leveraging these insights, we investigate the impact of doping IrO 2 with a range of transition metals and show that the stability of Ir active sites can be tuned largely independently of its predicted OER activity. These insights lay the foundation for material design to improve stability with respect to corrosion, with the ultimate aim to enhance long-term stability without sacrificing catalytic performance in the OER.
Cyanobacteriochromes (CBCRs) are cyanobacterial photoreceptors that exhibit photochromism between two states: a thermally stable dark-adapted state and a metastable light-adapted state with bound linear tetrapyrrole (bilin) chromophores possessing 15Z and 15E configurations, respectively. The photodynamics of canonical red/green CBCRs have been extensively studied; however, the time scales of their excited-state lifetimes and subsequent ground-state evolution rates widely differ and, at present, remain difficult to predict. Here, we compare the photodynamics of two closely related red/green CBCRs that have substantial sequence identity (~68%) and similar chromophore environments: AnPixJg2 from Anabaena sp. PCC 7120 and NpR6012g4 from Nostoc punctiforme. Using broadband transient absorption spectroscopy on the primary (125 fs to 7 ns) and secondary (7 ns to 10 ms) time scales together with global analysis modeling, our studies revealed that AnPixJg2 and NpR6012g4 have comparable quantum yields for initiating the forward ( 15Z P r → 15E P g ) and reverse ( 15E P g → 15Z P r ) reactions, which proceed through monotonic and nonmonotonic mechanisms, respectively. In addition to small discrepancies in the kinetics, the secondary reverse dynamics resolved unique features for each domain: intermediate shunts in NpR6012g4 and a Meta-Gf intermediate red-shifted from the 15Z P r photoproduct in AnPixJg2. Altogether, this study supports the conclusion that sequence similarity is a useful criterion for predicting pathways of the light-induced evolution and quantum yield of generating primary intermediate Φ p within subfamilies of CBCRs, but more studies are still needed to develop a comprehensive molecular level understanding of these processes.
In this work, we report on defect generation in multilayer GaSe through hydrostatic pressure quenching and UV laser irradiation. The Raman line width from the UV 266 nm irradiated sample is much wider than that in pressure-quenched GaSe, corresponding to a wider defect energy distribution range in the former sample than the latter. After quenching from 11.2 GPa, three photoluminescence (PL) peaks from defect states are observed at 657, 681, and 695 nm at a low temperature of 93 K. Defect-related peaks at 649, 694, 750, and 774 nm also appear in low-temperature PL spectra after UV laser irradiation, with a nonmonotonous intensity dependence on irradiation duration. There are common features in defects produced by these two methods: the PL peaks with the lowest energy are sharp, and their PL intensities increase linearly with the excitation laser power and saturate above a certain excitation laser power. These two features are similar to those in defects for single-photon emission (SPE) in other 2D materials at even lower temperatures. Fluorescence lifetime imaging shows distinguished short (2.3 ns) and long (75.6 nm) lifetimes of the 695 nm PL line in pressure-quenched GaSe. The density functional theory predicts defect energy levels related to Se vacancy.
In this work, laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (LIFS), Raman spectroscopy, and a stacked regression ensemble was developed for near real-time quantification of uranium(VI) (1–100 μg mL –1 ), samarium (0–200 μg mL –1 ) and nitric acid (0.1–4 M) with varying temperature (20 °C–45 °C). LIFS applications range from fundamental lab-scale studies to real-time process monitoring at industrial levels, such as nuclear reprocessing applications, provided the phenomena affecting the fluorescence spectrum are accounted for (e.g., absorption, quenching, complexation). Multiple chemometric models were examined and compared to a more traditional multivariate regression approach called partial least squares (PLS). Results obtained on synthetic samples selected using D-optimal experimental design indicated that a stacked regression method, which included ridge regression, random forest, PLS, and an eXtreme gradient boost algorithm, successfully measured uranium(VI) concentrations directly in nitric acid without measuring luminescence lifetimes or standard addition. The top model resulted in percent root-mean-square error of prediction values of 5.2, 1.9, 3.0, and 2.3% for U(VI), Sm 3+ , HNO 3 , and temperature, respectively. The approach may be useful for quantifying fluorescent fission products (e.g., Sm 3+ ) to provide information on burnup of irradiated nuclear fuel. This novel framework reinforces the applicability of LIFS for real-time applications in nuclear fuel cycle applications.
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This presentation was delivered at the 2024 Hydrogen Annual Merit Review Meeting. It focuses on three aspects of projects focusing on solid oxide cell systems- advanced control including nonlinear model predictive control and traditional control, dynamic optimization with due consideration of chemical degradation over the cell lifetime, dynamic optimization considering physical degradation.
Magnetic focusing horns are critical components for creating a stable beam of neutrinos for neutrino facilities, such as the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and the Neutrinos and Main Injector (NuMI) beam lines at Fermilab. The pulsed magnetic horns are powered by high current electricity through long striplines. In addition to requirements for low inductance and voltage standoff, the striplines must survive in a harsh radiation environment for the operational life of the component, specified as the 100 million pulses requirement for LBNF. Each stripline assembly consists of four (eight layers that splits off to 2 pairs of four layers at the horn interface) layers of Al 6101-T6. As an electromechanical system, the stripline layers are bolted together with ceramic isolators for electrical insulation and connections must facilitate passive cooling and mechanical stability. The striplines experience vibrational force in addition to clamping force, repetitive thermal and electro-magnetic loading. The holes of stripline plates for ceramic joints represent one of the weak links for potential failure [1,2]. By characterizing the contact behavior of these joints and optimizing their damping properties through finite element analysis and experimental modal analysis, stripline performance and longevity can be improved. This study not only helps predict the behavior of the striplines but also improves their performance to meet the required operational lifetime.
A two-dimensional nonlinear integrable system was experimentally demonstrated at the Fermilab Integrable Optics Test Accelerator. The system was implemented by inserting a special nonlinear magnet in a conventional accelerator lattice. We characterized the system by measuring lifetimes, transverse profiles and transverse oscillation frequencies of the 150-MeV electron beam as a function of the strength of the nonlinear insert. The measured shift of the working point and the amplitude-dependent detuning were consistent with theoretical predictions. We also observed the predicted bifurcation of the stable closed orbit. A striking consequence of the system's implementation was the possibility to operate the storage ring with integer tunes without lifetime degradation. This research opens up novel ways to design particle accelerators and to stabilize particle beams.
In this report we present PPT-Multicore, an analytical model embedded in the Performance Prediction Toolkit (PPT) to predict parallel applications’ performance running on a multicore processor. PPT-Multicore builds upon our previous work towards a multicore cache model. We extract LLVM basic block labeled memory trace using an architecture-independent LLVM-based instrumentation tool only once in an application’s lifetime. The model uses the memory trace and other parameters from an instrumented sequentially executed binary. We use probabilistic and computationally efficient reuse profiles to predict the cache hit rates and runtimes of OpenMP programs’ parallel sections. We model Intel’s Broadwell, Haswell, and AMD’s Zen2 architectures and validate our framework using different applications from PolyBench and PARSEC benchmark suites. The results show that PPT-Multicore can predict cache hit rates with an overall average error rate of 1.23% while predicting the runtime with an error rate of 9.08%.
This project was initiated in October 2015 to investigate the creep and creep-fatigue behavior of Alloy 709 for structural components in Gen IV sodium cooled fast spectrum reactors. The goal of this project is to develop an understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the behavior of austenitic stainless steel alloy 709 under accelerated testing conditions to confidently predict long term creep and creep-fatigue behavior at the times (500,000 hours) and temperatures (550°C) of interest for fast reactor structural applications. Alloy 709 has exhibited significantly better creep resistance than Alloy 316H, which is currently specified in design of fast reactor structural components. However, the alloy has not been code qualified for elevated temperature nuclear design. The elevated temperature microstructure stability and creep and creep-fatigue behavior need to be better understood so service life can be accurately predicted. Alloy 709 was developed for fossil boiler applications, which operate at a higher temperature than the nuclear components. Thus, there is a strong need to characterize its creep and creep-fatigue behavior at these lower temperatures and corresponding longer service lifetimes. The overall objective of this project is to develop sufficient understanding of the mechanisms responsible for behavior of Alloy 709 under accelerated testing conditions to confidently predict long term creep and creep-fatigue behavior at the times (500,000 hours) and temperatures (550°C) of interest for fast reactor structural applications. The following report summarizes the findings of the creep-fatigue and creep behavior with respect to the research questions identified during the course of the project. Additionally, the training and professional development that occurred through the project and the products resulting from the project are summarized.
Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.
Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.
This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.
Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.
Gallium nitride is a wide bandgap material utilized in a variety of technologies, including high-power electronics and light-emitting diodes, partly due to its favorable thermal properties. This chapter describes modern first-principles-based modeling of phonons and lattice thermal conductivity (k) of GaN, III-nitrides and related materials. In particular, we describe the theoretical underpinnings of calculating phonon dispersions, intrinsic phonon interactions, and other lattice dynamical properties from quantum perturbation theory and density functional theory (DFT) methods. Description of how these methods are then coupled with the Peierls-Boltzmann transport (PBT) equation to determine phonon distributions and lifetimes relevant for thermal transport is given. These theoretical and numerical methods have demonstrated quantitative accuracy and predictive power for calculating pristine k and defect-limited k from first principles for a variety of materials. We present a review of the literature utilizing DFT-PBT methods to understand novel k behaviors in III-nitrides and related materials.
The successful use of molecular dyes for solar energy conversion requires efficient charge injection, which in turn requires the formation of states with sufficiently long lifetimes (e.g., triplets). The molecular structure elements that confer this property can be found empirically, however computational predictions using ab initio electronic structure methods are invaluable to identify structure-property relations for dye sensitizers. The primary challenge for simulations to elucidate the electronic and nuclear origins of these properties is a spin-orbit interaction which drives transitions between electronic states. Here, in this work, we present a computational analysis of the spin-orbit corrected linear absorption cross sections and intersystem crossing rate coefficients for a derivative set of phosphonated tris(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(2+) dye molecules. After sampling the ground state vibrational distributions, the predicted linear absorption cross sections indicate that the mixture between singlet and triplet states plays a crucial role in defining the line shape of the metal-to-ligand charge transfer bands in these derivatives. Additionally, an analysis of the intersystem crossing rate coefficients suggests that transitions from the singlet into the triplet manifolds are ultrafast with rate coefficients on the order of 10 13 s -1 for each dye molecule.