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DOE OSTI2017

Foresee: A user-centric home energy management system for energy efficiency and demand response

This paper presents foresee, a user-centric home energy management system that can help optimize how a home operates to concurrently meet users' needs, achieve energy efficiency and commensurate utility cost savings, and reliably deliver grid services based on utility signals. Foresee is built on a multiobjective model predictive control framework, wherein the objectives consist of energy cost, thermal comfort, user convenience, and carbon emission. Foresee learns user preferences on different objectives and acts on their behalf to operate building equipment, such as home appliances, photovoltaic systems, and battery storage. In this work, machine-learning algorithms were used to derive data-driven appliance models and usage patterns to predict the home's future energy consumption. This approach enables highly accurate predictions of comfort needs, energy costs, environmental impacts, and grid service availability. Simulation studies were performed on field data from a residential building stock data set collected in the Pacific Northwest. Results indicated that foresee generated up to 7.6% whole-home energy savings without requiring substantial behavioral changes. When responding to demand response events, foresee was able to provide load forecasts upon receipt of event notifications and delivered the committed demand response services with 10% or fewer errors. Foresee fully utilized the potential of the battery storage and controllable building loads and delivered up to 7.0-kW load reduction and 13.5-kW load increase. As a result, these benefits are provided while maintaining the occupants' thermal comfort or convenience in using their appliances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

A higher harmonic control test in the DNW to reduce impulsive BVI noise

A model rotor acoustic test was performed to examine the benefit of higher control (HHC) of blade pitch to reduce blade-vortex interaction (BVI) impulse noise. A 40-percent dynamically scaled, four-bladed model of a BO-105 main rotor was tested in the German-Dutch Wind Tunnel (DNW). Acoustic measurements were made in a large plane underneath the rotor employing a traversing in-flow microphone array in the anechoic environment of the open test section. Noise characteristics and noise directivity patterns as well as vibratory loads were measured and used to demonstrate the changes when different HHC schedules (different modes, amplitudes, phases) were applied. Dramatic changes of the acoustic signatures and the noise radiation directivity with HHC phase variations are found. Compared to the baseline conditions (without HHD), significant mid-frequency noise reductions of as much as 6 dB are obtained for low speed descent conditions where BVI is most intensive. For other rotor operating conditions with less intense BVI there is less or no benefit from the use of HHC. Low frequency loading noise and vibratory loads, especially at optimum noise reduction control settings, are found to increase.

Splettstoesser, Wolf R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Performance and Flowfield Measurements on a 10-inch Ducted Rotor VTOL UAV

A ducted fan VTOL UAV with a 10-inch diameter rotor was tested in the US Army 7-by 10-Foot Wind Tunnel. The test conditions covered a range of angle of attack from 0 to 110 degrees to the freestream. The tunnel velocity was varied from 0 (simulating a hover condition) to 128 ft/sec in propeller mode. A six-component internal balance measured the aerodynamic loads for a range of model configurations. including the isolated rotor, the isolated duct, and the full configuration of the duct and rotor. For some conditions, hotwire velocity surveys were conducted along the inner and outer surface of the duct and across the downstream wake. In addition, fluorescent oil flow visualization allowed the flow separation patterns inside and outside of the duct to be mapped for a few test conditions. Two different duct shapes were tested to determine the performance effects of leading edge radius. For each duct, a range of rotor tip gap from 1%R to 4.5%R was tested to determine the performance penalty in hover and axial flight. Measured results are presented in terms of hover performance, hover performance in a crosswind, and high angle of attack performance in propeller mode. In each case, the effects of both tip gap and duct leading edge radius are illustrated using measurements. Some of the hover performance issues were also studied using a simple analytical method, and the results agreed with the measurements.

Martin, Preston↗

NASA NTRS1954

Investigation of the Hydrodynamic Characteristics of the Panto-Base Chase C-123 Airplane

An investigation of a 1/14-scale dynamically similar model of a panto-base version of the Chase C-123 airplane was conducted to evaluate the hydrodynamic characteristics of the airplane. The resistance, longitudinal stability, and spray patterns during take-off and general behavior in calm- and rough-water landings were determined. Brief calm-water tests were made to compare the initial vertical impact accelerations of the model with and without hydro-skis. Take-off stability was satisfactory for calm-water operation. A ratio of gross load to maximum resistance of 3,6 was obtained. Heavy spray reached the propellers only during ski emergence. The landing behavior in calm water and in waves 3 feet by 150 feet (full scale) was satisfactory for a normal range of trim angles. Initial impacts in calmwater landings resulted in vertical accelerations of about 2 1/2 with the hydro-skis installed and about 4g with the hydro-skis removed,

Thompson, William C.↗

DOE OSTI2012

Measuring and Understanding the Energy Use Signatures of a Bank Building

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory measured and analyzed the energy end-use patterns in a bank building located in the north-eastern United States. This work was performed in collaboration with PNC Financial Service Group under the US DOE’s Commercial Building Partnerships Program. This paper presents the metering study and the results of the metered data analysis. It provides a benchmark for the energy use of different bank-related equipments. The paper also reveals the importance of metering in fully understanding building loads and indentifying opportunities for energy efficiency improvements that will have impacts across PNC’s portfolio of buildings and were crucial to reducing receptacle loads in the design of a net-zero bank branches. PNNL worked with PNC to meter a 4,000 ft2 bank branch in the state of Pennsylvania. 71 electrical circuits were monitored and 25 stand-alone watt-hour meters were installed at the bank. These meters monitored the consumption of all interior and exterior lighting, receptacle loads, service water heating, and the HVAC rooftop unit at a 5-minute sampling interval from November 2009 to November 2010. A total of over 8 million data records were generated, which were then analyzed to produce the end-use patterns, daily usage profiles, rooftop unit usage cycles, and inputs for calibrating the energy model of the building.

ASHRAE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance and wake flow characterization of a 1:8.7-scale reference USDOE MHKF1 hydrokinetic turbine to establish a verification and validation test database

As hydrokinetic turbine technologies continue to advance towards commercialization, public datasets on the performance characteristics for these devices and their flow field effects are invaluable to advance our understanding of these technologies and to validate analytical and numerical models. The Applied Research Laboratory at The Pennsylvania State University (ARL Penn State) collaborated with Sandia National Laboratories and the University of California at Davis to design, fabricate (at a 1:8.7 scale), and experimentally test a novel hydrokinetic turbine rotor design to provide an open platform and dataset for further study and development. The water tunnel test of this three-bladed, horizontal-axis rotor recorded power production, blade loading, the near-wake flow, cavitation effects, and noise generation. These state-of-the-art measurements demonstrate much of the complex physics associated with the flow through an unducted, horizontal-axis turbine, and they elucidate the performance characteristics and flow field effects at an unprecedented fidelity, accuracy and resolution. Measurements of powering coefficients (power, torque and thrust) as a function of tip-speed-ratio were performed. The dataset also includes unsteady measurements of driveshaft loading, blade strain, tower pressures, and radiated noise. Detailed flow mapping using laser Doppler velocimetry, and planar and stereo particle image velocimetry includes measurements of mean velocity and Reynolds stresses. Although the wake measurements are limited to less than half a diameter, they reveal the complex flow patterns in the near-wake structure of the rotor. The full database, available at the United States Department of Energy’s marine and hydrokinetic data repository, includes tunnel and model Computer Aided Design geometry files and inflow data sufficient for a “Model-the-Test” computational Verification and Validation study.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A simple model of COVID-19 explains disease severity and the effect of treatments

Abstract Considerable effort has been made to better understand why some people suffer from severe COVID-19 while others remain asymptomatic. This has led to important clinical findings; people with severe COVID-19 generally experience persistently high levels of inflammation, slower viral load decay, display a dysregulated type-I interferon response, have less active natural killer cells and increased levels of neutrophil extracellular traps. How these findings are connected to the pathogenesis of COVID-19 remains unclear. We propose a mathematical model that sheds light on this issue by focusing on cells that trigger inflammation through molecular patterns: infected cells carrying pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) and damaged cells producing damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs). The former signals the presence of pathogens while the latter signals danger such as hypoxia or lack of nutrients. Analyses show that SARS-CoV-2 infections can lead to a self-perpetuating feedback loop between DAMP expressing cells and inflammation, identifying the inability to quickly clear PAMPs and DAMPs as the main contributor to hyperinflammation. The model explains clinical findings and reveal conditions that can increase the likelihood of desired clinical outcome from treatment administration. In particular, the analysis suggest that antivirals need to be administered early during infection to have an impact on disease severity. The simplicity of the model and its high level of consistency with clinical findings motivate its use for the formulation of new treatment strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges in Rotor Aerodynamic Modeling for Non-Uniform Inflow Conditions

Within an international collaboration framework, the accuracy of rotor aerodynamic models used for design load calculations of wind turbines is being assessed. Where the use of high-fidelity computation fluid dynamics (CFD) and mid-fidelity free-vortex wake (FVW) models has become commonplace within the wind energy community, these still fail to meet the requirements in terms of execution time and computational cost needed for design load calculations. The fast but engineering fidelity blade-element/momentum (BEM) method can therefore still be considered the industry workhorse for design load simulations. At the same time, upscaling of wind turbine rotors makes inflow non-uniformities (e.g. shear, veer, turbulence) more important. The objective of this work is to assess model accuracy in non-uniform inflow conditions, which violate several BEM assumptions. Thereto a comparison in turbulent inflow has been executed including a wide variety of codes, focusing on the DanAero field measurements, where a 2.3-MW turbine was equipped with, among other sensors, a pressure measurement apparatus. The results indicate that, although average load patterns are in good agreement, this does not hold for the unsteady loads that drive fatigue damage and aero-elastic stability. A simplified comparison round in vertical shear was initiated to investigate the observed differences in a more controlled manner. A consistent offset in load amplitude was observed between CFD and free-vortex codes on the one hand and BEM-type codes on the other hand. To shed more light on the observations, dedicated efforts are ongoing to pinpoint the cause for these differences, in the end leading to guidelines for an improved BEM implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1961

Stability and Control Characteristics of a Model of an Aerial Vehicle Supported by Four Ducted Fans

The stability and control characteristics of a simple, lightly loaded model approximately one-third the size of a full-scale vehicle have been investigated by a series of free-flight tests. The model is representative of a type of vertically rising aircraft which would utilize four ducted fans as its sole source of lift and propulsion. The ducts were arranged in a rectangular pattern and were fixed to the airframe so that their axes of revolution were vertical for hovering flight. Control moments were provided by remotely controlled compressed-air jets at the sides and ends of the model. In hovering, the model in its original configuration exhibited divergent oscillations about both the roll and pitch axes. Because these oscillations were of a rather short period., the model was very difficult to control by the use of remote controls only. The model could be completely stabilized by the addition of a sufficient amount of artificial damping. The pitching oscillation was made easier to control by increasing the distance between the forward and rearward pairs of ducts. In forward flight, with the model in its original configuration, the top speed was limited by the development of an uncontrollable pitch-up. Large forward tilt angles were required for trim at the highest speeds attained. With the model rotated so that the shorter axis became the longitudinal axis, the pitch trim problem was found to be less than with the longer axis as the longitudinal axis. The installation of a system of vanes in the slipstream of the forward ducts reduced the tilt angle but increased the power required.

Parlett, Lysle P.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multi-model Comparison of the Volcanic Sulfate Deposition from the 1815 Eruption of Mt. Tambora

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 "year without a summer", and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyze both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kgkm-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kgkm-2, as compared to the mean ice-core derived estimates of roughly 50 kgkm-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Marshall, Lauren↗

DOE OSTI2014

Residential Mechanical Precooling

Residential air conditioning (AC) represents a challenging load for many electric utilities with poor load factors. Mechanical precooling improves the load factor by shifting cooling operation from on-peak to off-peak hours. This provides benefits to utilities and the electricity grid, as well as to occupants who can take advantage of time-of-use (TOU) electricity rates. Performance benefits stem from reduced compressor cycling, and shifting condensing unit operation to earlier periods of the day when outdoor temperatures are more favorable to operational efficiency. Finding solutions that save energy and reduce demand on the electricity grid is an important national objective and supports key Building America goals. The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation team evaluated mechanical AC precooling strategies in homes throughout the United States. EnergyPlus modeling was used to evaluate two homes with different performance characteristics in seven climates. Results are applicable to new construction homes and most existing homes built in the last 10 years, as well as fairly efficient retrofitted homes. A successful off-peak AC strategy offers the potential for increased efficiency and improved occupant comfort, and promotes a more reliable and robust electricity grid. Demand response capabilities and further integration with photovoltaic TOU generation patterns provide additional opportunities to flatten loads and optimize grid impacts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2013

Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

uncertainty analysis, wind generation forecast, wa↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Global Building Occupant Behavior Database

This paper introduces a database of 34 field-measured building occupant behavior datasets collected from 15 countries and 39 institutions across 10 climatic zones covering various building types in both commercial and residential sectors. This is a comprehensive global database about building occupant behavior. The database includes occupancy patterns (i.e., presence and people count) and occupant behaviors (i.e., interactions with devices, equipment, and technical systems in buildings). Brick schema models were developed to represent sensor and room metadata information. The database is publicly available, and a website was created for the public to access, query, and download specific datasets or the whole database interactively. The database can help to advance the knowledge and understanding of realistic occupancy patterns and human-building interactions with building systems (e.g., light switching, set-point changes on thermostats, fans on/off, etc.) and envelopes (e.g., window opening/closing). With these more realistic inputs of occupants’ schedules and their interactions with buildings and systems, building designers, energy modelers, and consultants can improve the accuracy of building energy simulation and building load forecasting.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Deep Learning-Based Data Forgery Detection in Automatic Generation Control

Automatic Generation Control (AGC) is a key control system in the power grid. It is used to calculate the Area Control Error (ACE) based on frequency and tie-line power flow between balancing areas, and then adjust power generation to maintain the power system frequency in an acceptable range. However, attackers might inject malicious frequency or tie-line power flow measurements to mislead AGC to do false generation correction which will harm the power grid operation. Such attacks are hard to be detected since they do not violate physical power system models. In this work, we propose algorithms based on Neural Network and Fourier Transform to detect data forgery attacks in AGC. Different from the few previous work that rely on accurate load prediction to detect data forgery, our solution only uses the ACE data already available in existing AGC systems. In particular, our solution learns the normal patterns of ACE time series and detects abnormal patterns caused by artificial attacks. Evaluations on the real ACE dataset show that our methods have high detection accuracy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Canadian Wildfires on Mid Atlantic’s Region Air Quality: An Analysis Using ASDC Data

Wildfires pose a growing concern in North America due to their harmful impacts on air quality and public health, with increased wildfire activity in recent years leading to widespread smoke plumes that can transcend borders. The exposure of New York City (NYC), the most populous city in North America, to Canadian wildfire smoke highlights the substantial implications for public health and urban environments. To better understand the impact of Canadian wildfires on air quality in NYC, satellite data from the NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) at Langley Research Center, along with ground-based measurements and atmospheric modeling results, are analyzed. We examine concentrations of atmospheric aerosols—particularly PM2.5 particulate matter originating from Canadian wildfires—their dispersion patterns, and the duration and intensity of smoke events impacting NYC. Data from multiple satellites, such as those from the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), are synergistically used to identify regions affected by wildfires and estimate aerosol loading. Ground-based measurements, including data from air quality monitoring stations, provide localized information for validation and calibration purposes. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the impact of Canadian wildfires on NYC's air quality and emphasize the importance of monitoring and prediction of transboundary smoke events using data synthesized from multiple sources, such as those provided by the ASDC. This information is crucial for policymakers, public health officials, and residents in affected areas to develop effective strategies for mitigating the health risks associated with wildfire smoke and improving air quality during wildfire seasons. The utilization of ASDC data in this research highlights the critical role of atmospheric remote sensing in addressing the challenges posed by wildfires and their consequences on regional scales.

Ingrid Garcia-Solera↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing the Impact of Canadian Wildfires on Air Quality in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic: with Data and Tools from NASA’s Atmospheric Sciences Data Center

Ingrid Garcia-Solera↗

DOE OSTI2016

Coupled geomechanics and flow modeling of thermally induced compaction in heavy oil diatomite reservoirs under cyclic steaming

We report shallow, heavy oil diatomite reservoirs produced using cyclic steaming are often associated with significant subsidence. In cases where the pore pressure is not allowed to deplete noticeably, observed subsidence suggests a mechanism other than pressure decline is responsible. We perform coupled flow and geomechanics modeling to determine whether thermally induced compaction of the reservoir rock could play an important role in subsidence. First, we model laboratory-scale tests on diatomite samples subjected to mechanical and thermal loads. During these tests, substantial non-recoverable thermal compaction was measured. Using the modified Cam-clay model as a basis, thermally induced compaction is implemented by reducing the size of the yield surface as a function of temperature. This leads to a satisfactory modeling of the test results. Second, this new approach is used to model a symmetric pattern of wells in a generic heavy oil diatomite field produced using cyclic steaming. Results from simulations that consider or neglect thermally induced diatomite compaction show that thermal effects can potentially induce significant inelastic pore volume reduction and substantial subsidence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗