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DOE OSTI2025

Combining Theory and Experiment to Map the Atomic-Level Structure–Energy Pathways of Adsorbate-Mediated Phase Changes in a Cooperatively Flexible Metal–Organic Framework

An important subclass of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) exhibits cooperative flexibility, wherein individual crystallites undergo global structural phase changes in response to external stimuli. Where cooperative flexibility results in reversible changes between crystalline states of distinct accessible porosity, these frameworks can exhibit rare yet desirable behaviors that cannot be explained by local dynamics alone. Yet, the chemical and structural origins of cooperative flexibility and how frameworks undergo these reversible phase changes at the atomic level remain poorly understood. Deliberate design for specific applications is therefore exceedingly difficult, and there is great impetus to develop a fundamental understanding of this phenomenon. Here, an effective and widely accessible computational approach is developed, which is designed to provide microscopic resolution via direct comparison to experimental data along the desorption-guided pathway. The strategy is applied to explain the desorption-induced phase change in an experimentally well-characterized framework, CdIF-13 (sod-Cd(benzimidazolate)2), where experiment alone was unable to resolve the atomistically detailed phase change landscape. Our findings reveal that the cooperative phase change pathways are adsorbate dependent with thermodynamics of intermediate structural states dictated by a nuanced interplay of ligand orientation, skeletal symmetry, and modes of surface adsorption. The results reveal that this isotropically flexible framework is “chaperoned” through a complex energy landscape by specific adsorbates, revealed by the reported computational approach with atomic-level insight and validated by experimentally determined structures. Thus, this work facilitates both understanding and future design of flexible materials for applications in gas storage, transport, delivery, and separation technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solution of the linear wave-particle kinetic equation for global modes of arbitrary frequency in a tokamak

The linear response of a plasma to perturbations of arbitrary frequency and wavelength is derived for any axisymmetric magnetized toroidal plasma. An explicit transformation to action-angle coordinates is achieved using orthogonal magnetic coordinates and the Littlejohn Lagrangian, establishing the validity of this result to arbitrary order in normalized Larmor radius. The global resonance condition for compressional modes is clarified in more detail than in previous works, confirming that the poloidal orbit-average of the cyclotron frequency gives the desired result at lowest order in Larmor radius. The global plasma response to the perturbation at each resonance is captured by a poloidal and gyroaverage of the perturbing potential. A “global gyroaveraging” of the potential is a natural by-product of this analysis which takes into account the changing of the magnetic field over an orbit. The resonance condition depends on two arbitrary integers which completely separately capture the effects poloidal non-uniformity and finite Larmor radius in generating sidebands. We learn that poloidal sidebands generated for compressional modes are dominated by the change in gyrofrequency over the orbit, which is very different to shear modes where the gyrofrequency only contributes via a finite Larmor radius effect. This increases the number of bounce harmonics required to compute the linear drive, giving a more complicated resonance map. An example calculation is given comparing resonance of shear and compressional modes in a published DIII-D case.

Compressional↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Training of Deep Neural Operator Networks via Randomized Sampling

Neural operators (NOs) employ deep neural networks to learn the mappings between infinitedimensional function spaces. Deep operator network (DeepONet), a popular NO architecture, has demonstrated success in the real-time prediction of complex dynamics across various scientific and engineering applications. In this work, we introduce a random sampling technique to be adopted during the training of DeepONet, aimed at improving the generalization ability of the model, while significantly reducing the computational time. The proposed approach targets the trunk network of the DeepONet model that outputs the basis functions corresponding to the spatiotemporal locations of the bounded domain on which the physical system is defined. While constructing the loss function, DeepONet training traditionally considers a uniform grid of spatiotemporal points at which all the output functions are evaluated for each iteration. This approach leads to a larger batch size, resulting in poor generalization and increased memory demands, due to the limitations of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizer. The proposed random sampling over the inputs of the trunk net mitigates these challenges, improving generalization and reducing the memory requirements during training, resulting in significant computational gains. We validate our hypothesis through three benchmark examples, demonstrating substantial reductions in training time while achieving comparable or lower overall test errors relative to the traditional training approach. Our results indicate that incorporating randomization in the trunk network inputs during training enhances the efficiency and robustness of DeepONet, offering a promising avenue for improving the framework’s performance in modeling complex physical systems.

Karumuri, Sharmila [Department of Civil & Systems ↗

DOE OSTI2024

HumoNet: A Framework for Realistic Modeling and Simulation of Human Mobility Network

Understanding, analyzing, and predicting human mobility and dynamics are valuable to solving pressing problems, developing effective plans, and prescribing timely remedies. As a computational approach, realistic human mobility simulations allow us to understand, analyze, and predict complex systems, including human societies. Accurate simulations rely on (1) the model that captures interactions and behaviors of myriad entities in our society and (2) the mapping of model instances to real-world entities. Taking this into account, this paper introduces the Human Mobility Network simulation framework (HumoNet), an integrated patterns of life (POL) simulation framework that leverages real-world data layers including transportation networks, points of interest, populations, popularity, and human trajectories. HumoNet is a data informed model in which agents are equipped with activities, locomotion, and planning capabilities. To simulate realistic kinematic maneuvers of individuals in transportation networks, HumoNet harnesses a microscopic traffic simulator that provides interaction among vehicles and traffic objects. In this paper, we describe the framework, outline our methodologies, and discuss the data processing and challenges of each data layer. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our simulations capture key features of human mobility by comparing them to the literature and real data using standard measures of human mobility (i.e., the radius of gyration, number of locations visited, level of exploration) and metrics scoring (i.e., Jensen-Shannon divergence). We envision that the synthetic data produced by HumoNet will serve as a benchmark for analyzing epidemics, deploying EV charging networks, and validating AI/ML tasks such as location prediction.

Kim, Joon-Seok↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonideal stability analysis of differentially rotating plasmas with global curvature effects

The linear stability of global nonaxisymmetric modes in differentially rotating, magnetized, nonideal plasma is critical to classifying turbulence and transport phenomena. We investigate the competition between the local magneto-rotational instability (MRI) and the magneto-curvature instability (MCI)—a distinct nonaxisymmetric low-frequency curvature-driven global branch that appears alongside MRI. Here, to accomplish this, we developed a nonideal global spectral method, which is validated against NIMROD code simulations. This spectral approach allows for the direct derivation of an extended effective potential formalism and a resistive Alfvénic resonance condition, providing a framework for direct analysis of energy contributions and confinement mechanisms. Our study reveals that the global, low-frequency MCI persists at low magnetic Reynolds numbers (Rm), whereas the localized, high-frequency MRI is stabilized by diffusive broadening of its structure around its Alfvénic resonances. Consequently, we identify the global MCI branch as the primary onset mechanism for nonaxisymmetric magnetohydrodynamic instability in systems with finite curvature, e.g., astrophysical rotators. We establish distinct parameter regimes for mode dominance: MCI prevails in geometrically moderate-thickness disks with intermediate curvature and radial gaps, while MRI dominates in thin, low-curvature disks with large radial gaps. Mode competition is also highly sensitive to the flow profile, particularly vorticity and its gradient, with nonuniform shear profiles exhibiting more robust instability due to flow curvature (i.e., the second derivative of the flow profile) and shear contributions. A key outcome is the development of spectral diagrams derived from the global spectral method. These diagrams comprehensively map dominant instabilities and their characteristics, offering a predictive tool for critical onset parameters (i.e., flow curvature, magnetic field, and Rm) and facilitating the interpretation of experimental and simulation results. Notably, these diagrams demonstrate that the global MCI is generally the sole unstable mode at the initial onset of nonaxisymmetric instability.

Haywood, Alexander [Princeton Univ., NJ (United St↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a two-zone zero-dimensional mixing model for actively fueled prechamber engines

In this numerical work, a zero-dimensional, two-zone mixing model was developed and validated to capture the mixture preparation process of an actively fueled prechamber engine. The model was developed for ethanol-gasoline fuel blends but is applicable to various fuels of interest relevant to prechamber applications. The model was exercised to demonstrate the effects of boundary conditions, fuel composition, and residual content on the mixture stoichiometry predictions. The 0D model showed reasonable agreement in prechamber equivalence ratio predictions with higher fidelity computational fluid dynamics modeling, but the accuracy of model was constrained to the governing assumptions of the injection process. The modeling assumptions surrounding the non-dimensional injection of mass into the prechamber were scrutinized to identify key areas of model improvement. The results indicate heat transfer effects play a crucial role in the evaporation of the fuel within the confined auxiliary chamber, especially when considering fuels with high latent heat of vaporization. Additionally, the presence of fuel films that collect on the prechamber surfaces complicated the modeled evaporative cooling loses as the modeling suggests the films evaporate primarily by means of conduction from the boundary. Furthermore, the developed model serves as a simplified framework to generate calibration maps of prechamber fueling or run real time as an open loop control strategy such that desired prechamber mixture proportions are effectively targeted.

Zero-dimensional↗

DOE OSTI2025

Broadband Fourier-Transform Optical Photothermal Infrared Spectroscopy and Imaging

Infrared (IR) spectroscopy is a powerful method for mapping chemical heterogeneity on the microscale. Synchrotron IR radiation uniquely provides a high brightness and broad bandwidth to further extend the capabilities of IR spectroscopic imaging. However, the diffraction-limited spatial resolution of IR spectroscopy is insufficient for studies requiring submicrometer spatial differentiation. Optical photothermal IR (O-PTIR) microscopy is a powerful, emerging method that overcomes the IR diffraction limit in IR hyperspectral imaging by employing a modulated IR beam and a visible probe laser beam to detect local temperature-induced modulation at the visible diffraction limit. In this work, we extend the spectral range of photothermal infrared measurements by incorporating a synchrotron IR source, demonstrating a combined synchrotron-based O-PTIR modality that enables high spatial resolution far-field chemical imaging spanning the entire mid-IR range. Both optical- and fluorescence-detected photothermal modalities were performed using a step-scan interferometer, demonstrating improved spectral range (541-4000 cm-1) when compared to optical photothermal microscopy with commercial laser sources (800-1800 cm-1 for this particular source) and improved spatial resolution, when compared to synchrotron microspectroscopy measurements. Following these initial validation studies, synchrotron Fourier-transform fluorescence-detected photothermal IR spectroscopy in combination with synchrotron microspectroscopy measurements was used to differentiate cells in mouse brain tissue sections, which requires submicron spatial resolutions beyond those accessible by IR spectroscopy alone.

Razumtcev, Aleksandr↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analytic Chromaticity Formulas for the Muon g -2 experiment at fermilab

The Muon g-2 Experiment (E989) at Fermilab measured the muon anomalous magnetic moment aμ with unprecedented precision of 127 ppb using a storage ring. The experiment pushed the limits in terms of accuracy and systematic errors. Achieving the 78-ppb total systematic uncertainty required precise beam dynamics modeling and corrections for effects on the measured muon precession frequency. Here, we derived the first analytic aberration formulas up to the second order for the muon g-2 storage ring’s combined-function electrostatic quadrupoles (superimposed magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole fields) using an order-by-order perturbation method. From these, we obtained the exact chromaticity formulas for three ring models of different granularity and validated them against numerical calculations using COSY INFINITY, achieving analytic-numerical agreement to ⁠$\mathscr{O}(10^{-10})$. This work resolved discrepancies between previous approximate derivations and provided essential beam dynamics results for Runs 4-6 analyses. We also calculated nonlinear chromaticities up to ninth order. The experiment completed its final Run 6 in July 2023, collecting 21 times more data than the previous muon g-2 experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory, with the final result announced in June 2025.

aberrations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Q -score as a reliability measure for protein, nucleic acid and small-molecule atomic coordinate models derived from 3DEM maps

Atomic coordinate models are important for the interpretation of 3D maps produced with cryoEM and cryoET (3D electron microscopy; 3DEM). In addition to visual inspection of such maps and models, quantitative metrics can inform about the reliability of the atomic coordinates, in particular how well the model is supported by the experimentally determined 3DEM map. A recently introduced metric, Q-score, was shown to correlate well with the reported resolution of the map for well fitted models. Here, we present new statistical analyses of Q-score based on its application to ∼10 000 maps and models archived in the EMDB (Electron Microscopy Data Bank) and PDB (Protein Data Bank). Further, we introduce two new metrics based on Q-score to represent each map and model relative to all entries in the EMDB and those with similar resolution. We explore through illustrative examples of proteins, nucleic acids and small molecules how Q-scores can indicate whether the atomic coordinates are well fitted to 3DEM maps and also whether some parts of a map may be poorly resolved due to factors such as molecular flexibility, radiation damage and/or conformational heterogeneity. These examples and statistical analyses provide a basis for how Q-scores can be interpreted effectively in order to evaluate 3DEM maps and atomic coordinate models prior to publication and archiving.

B factors↗

DOE OSTI2025

LatticeAnalytics: Strut-Level Visualization and Inspection of Additively Manufactured Lattice Structures

Additive manufacturing (AM) is revolutionizing the production of custom components with complex internal geometries, essential for high-performance applications in diverse fields such as medicine and defense. These AM parts optimize strength while minimizing weight by utilizing internal lattice structures consisting of large quantities of small interconnected struts. However, the complexity of these structures, combined with the challenges of using X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) data, makes validation of part reliability difficult. This ultimately inhibits the development of novel parts for our collaborating material scientists. Here, we introduce LatticeAnalytics, a novel framework specifically designed for visual inspection of defects in these lattice structures. Our framework offers an end-to-end solution that includes the data management of XCT scans, enables remote access for geographically dispersed teams through a web-based dashboard, and incorporates novel visualizations. Our analysis is facilitated by a coarse alignment between the lattice’s nominal model, a spatial graph, and the XCT data. We employ a simple VR-based approach for fast and rough alignment, followed by an offline registration and identification of the struts. With the nodes and struts aligned and identified in the volume, our framework allows querying of subvolumes containing a single strut at multiple resolutions. This avoids computation over the entire lattice and also allow for easy parallelization of down-stream computations, such as strut-specific metrics. To depict a fast overview of the strut quality, we introduce two innovative visual encodings, crucial for our collaborators’ research in creating novel AM parts: the Contour View and the Roughness Map, which depict critical geometrical and surface features of individual struts in standardized two 2D views. We evaluated the integrated system through expert interviews. The feedback confirms the framework’s practicality and its effectiveness in enhancing current inspection workflows. It solves major bottlenecks for our collaborators, ultimately helping them create novel parts with advanced properties.

Miao, Haichao [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2026

Legacy Survey of Space and Time Data Preview 2: survey property dataset type

We present Rubin Data Preview 2 (DP2), the second data preview from the NDF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Data Preview 2 (DP2) comprises coadds, detection catalogs, and ancillary data products; and when fully released will also include single-epoch images and difference images. DP2 is derived from observations acquired by the LSST Science Camera (LSSTCam) on the Simonyi Survey Telescope at the Summit Facility on Cerro Pachón, Chile, primarily during the on-sky commissioning campaign between 2025-04-16 and 2025-09-21, supplemented by observations taken between 2025-10-25 and 2026-01-06 that overlap the commissioning footprint. The DP2 footprint comprises the Science Validation wide-area survey, five Deep Drilling Fields, and a number of targeted small-field regions, including Trifid and Lagoon, Prawn, M49, and New Horizons, all observed as part of the Rubin First Look campaign. Each field was imaged in up to six broad photometric bands, ugrizy, and coadded to produce deep imaging covering an estimated 3,000 deg2. The addition of single-visit-only areas expands the total DP2 footprint to an estimated 15,000 deg2, with coverage in at least one filter. The median per-visit PSF FWHM across the wide-area survey ranges from 1.17 arcsec in the z band to 1.26 arcsec in g and r bands. The deepest field, reaches estimated coadded 5σ depths of u=26 mag, g=26.8 mag, r=26.3 mag, i=26.1 mag, z=25.3 mag, y=23.9 mag. Based on a roughly five-month primary observing baseline and covering only part of the eventual LSST footprint, DP2's area, depth, and multiband coverage nonetheless support a broad range of early science investigations ahead of LSST Data Release This dataset is a subset of the full data release consisting of the survey property dataset type. These are healSparse property maps for the survey. This release contains 84 datasets of this type.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an Erythema-Weighted UV Model Using Broadband Solar Irradiance Measurements From Eleven U.S. Sites: Preprint

Erythema-weighted UV solar irradiance (UV-E) has a potential impact on human health if the recommended maximum exposure times are exceeded. In spite of this, it is not measured at most sites that measure Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). However, since UV-E is highly correlated with GHI and total ozone content it can be estimated from this information with sufficient accuracy to assisst in public health recommendations. The Power Model (PM) provides a simple method to estimate the erythema-weighted UV irradiance (UV-E) from measured GHI, total ozone column and air mass. In this work, the performance of the PM method is assessed using high-quality data from 11 sites in the continental U.S. (part of SURFRAD and SOLRAD networks) and total ozone estimates publicly available from the MERRA-2 re-analysis database. A three year period (2021- 2023) at 1-minute frequency is considered. The results (for time aggregations of 5 and 60 minutes) show a high Pearson's correlations (> 0.99), consistently positive mean bias deviations (below 13%) and dispersions in the 8-19% range at all sites. Relative values are expressed in terms of the corresponding measurement mean. The performance indicators remain consistent across time resolutions (5 or 60 minutes), suggesting that the model's performance is robust and not significantly affected by short-term variability (which is captured by GHI). Spatial patterns reveal higher biases and RMSD in northern and eastern locations. These values represent a significant improvement over widely used satellite-based global UV-E estimates and open the possibility of using the PM with satellite-based GHI estimates for operational UV-E mapping over the contiguous U.S. territory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust collection and processing for label-free single voxel proteomics

With advanced mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics, genome-scale proteome coverage can be achieved from bulk tissues. However, such bulk measurement lacks spatial resolution and obscures tissue heterogeneity, precluding proteome mapping of tissue microenvironment. Here we report an integrated $\underline{w}et$ $\underline{c}ollection$ of single microscale tissue voxels and $\underline{S}urfactant$$-assisted$ $\underline{O}ne$-$\underline{P}ot$ voxel processing method termed wcSOP for robust label-free single voxel proteomics. wcSOP capitalizes on buffer droplet-assisted wet collection of a single voxel dissected by LCM into the PCR tube cap and MS-compatible surfactant-assisted one-pot voxel processing in the collection cap. This convenient method allows reproducible label-free quantification of ~900 and ~4,600 proteins for single voxels at 20 µm × 20 µm × 10 µm (close to single cells) and 200 µm × 200 µm × 10 µm (~100 cells) from fresh frozen human spleen tissue, respectively. 100s-1000s of protein signatures were spatially resolved between spleen red and white pulp regions depending on the voxel size. Region-specific signaling pathways were enriched from single voxel proteomics data. To evaluate its broad applicability, we applied wcSOP-MS to two commonly accessible, OCT-embedded and FFPE, human archived tissues. It enabled to identify spatially resolved proteome changes and enriched pathways between diseased (breast cancer tumor or AD amyloid plaque) and adjacent normal regions. Antibody-based CODEX and IHC imaging validated label-free MS quantitation for single voxel analysis. The wcSOP-MS method paves the way for routine robust single voxel proteomics and spatial proteomics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Legacy Survey of Space and Time Data Preview 2: CoaddPatches searchable catalog

We present Rubin Data Preview 2 (DP2), the second data preview from the NDF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Data Preview 2 (DP2) comprises coadds, detection catalogs, and ancillary data products; and when fully released will also include single-epoch images and difference images. DP2 is derived from observations acquired by the LSST Science Camera (LSSTCam) on the Simonyi Survey Telescope at the Summit Facility on Cerro Pachón, Chile, primarily during the on-sky commissioning campaign between 2025-04-16 and 2025-09-21, supplemented by observations taken between 2025-10-25 and 2026-01-06 that overlap the commissioning footprint. The DP2 footprint comprises the Science Validation wide-area survey, five Deep Drilling Fields, and a number of targeted small-field regions, including Trifid and Lagoon, Prawn, M49, and New Horizons, all observed as part of the Rubin First Look campaign. Each field was imaged in up to six broad photometric bands, ugrizy, and coadded to produce deep imaging covering an estimated 3,000 deg2. The addition of single-visit-only areas expands the total DP2 footprint to an estimated 15,000 deg2, with coverage in at least one filter. The median per-visit PSF FWHM across the wide-area survey ranges from 1.17 arcsec in the z band to 1.26 arcsec in g and r bands. The deepest field, reaches estimated coadded 5σ depths of u=26 mag, g=26.8 mag, r=26.3 mag, i=26.1 mag, z=25.3 mag, y=23.9 mag. Based on a roughly five-month primary observing baseline and covering only part of the eventual LSST footprint, DP2's area, depth, and multiband coverage nonetheless support a broad range of early science investigations ahead of LSST Data Release This dataset is a subset of the full data release consisting of a searchable catalog named CoaddPatches. This catalog contains coordinates and regions for the patches of the all-sky map. This catalog contains 197,105 rows with 5 columns.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Error field measurements and correction on MUSE permanent magnet stellarator

The magnetic field topology and error fields are measured in the MUSE permanent magnet stellarator with an electron beam and fluorescent rod. The effective magnetization of the magnets is determined by measuring rational flux surface locations. Electron magnetic drift effects must be considered self-consistently due to the small magnetic shear on MUSE. Error fields are characterized by flux surface shape deviation and magnetic island chain width and phase. Error fields are then corrected by adjusting the permanent magnet (PM) holders as rigid bodies. Resonant error fields are on the order of or smaller than 3 x 10 -6 of the toroidal field after correction and surface shape matches well with the design. Resonant components of the quasi-symmetry deviation are estimated, using a novel magnetic drift measurement, to be in the 10 −4 range. The PM approach is validated as a low-cost and precise way to build optimized stellarators.

electron beam mapping↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗