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Implementation of Monte Carlo Transport in the General Relativistic SpEC Code

Neutrino transport and neutrino-matter interactions are known to play an important role in the evolution of neutron star mergers and of their post-merger remnants. Neutrinos cool remnants, drive post-merger winds, and deposit energy in the low-density polar regions where relativistic jets may eventually form. Neutrinos also modify the composition of the ejected material, impacting the outcome of nucleosynthesis in merger outflows and the properties of the optical/infrared transients that they power (kilonovae). So far, merger simulations have largely relied on approximate treatments of the neutrinos (leakage, moments) that simplify the equations of radiation transport in a way that makes simulations more affordable but also introduces unquantifiable errors in the results. To improve on these methods, we recently published a first simulation of neutron star mergers using a low-cost Monte Carlo algorithm for neutrino radiation transport. Our transport code limits costs in optically thick regions by placing a hard ceiling on the value of the absorption opacity of the fluid, yet all approximations made within the code are designed to vanish in the limit of infinite numerical resolution. We provide here an in-depth description of this algorithm, of its implementation in the SpEC merger code, and of the expected impact of our approximations in optically thick regions. We argue that the last is a subdominant source of error at the accuracy reached by current simulations and for the interactions currently included in our code. We also provide tests of the most important features of this code.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmological Simulations of Stellar Halos with Gaia Sausage–Enceladus Analogs: Two Sausages, One Bun?

Observations of the Milky Way’s stellar halo find that it is predominantly comprised of a radially biased population of stars, dubbed the Gaia Sausage–Enceladus, or GSE. These stars are thought to be debris from dwarf galaxy accretion early in the Milky Way’s history. Though typically considered to be from a single merger, it is possible that the GSE debris has multiple sources. To investigate this possibility, we use the IllustrisTNG50 simulation to identify stellar accretion histories in 98 Milky Way analogs—the largest sample for which such an identification has been performed—and find GSE-like debris in 32, with two-merger GSEs accounting for a third of these cases. Distinguishing single-merger GSEs from two-merger GSEs is difficult in common kinematic spaces, but differences are more evident through chemical abundances and star formation histories. This is because single-merger GSEs are typically accreted more recently than the galaxies in two-merger GSEs: the median infall times (with 16th and 84th percentiles) are $5.{9}_{-2.0}^{+3.3}$ and $10.{7}_{-3.7}^{+1.2}$ Gyr ago for single- and two-merger scenarios, respectively. The systematic shifts in abundances and ages that occur as a result suggest that efforts in modeling these aspects of the stellar halo prove ever-important in understanding its assembly.

galactic archaeology↗

Central star formation in double-peak, gas-rich radio galaxies

The respective contributions of gas accretion, galaxy interactions, and mergers to the mass assembly of galaxies, as well as the evolution of their molecular gas and star-formation activity are still not fully understood. In a recent work, a large sample of double-peak (DP) emission-line galaxies have been identified from the SDSS. While the two peaks could represent two kinematic components, they may be linked to the large bulges that their host galaxies tend to have. Star-forming DP galaxies display a central star-formation enhancement and have been discussed as compatible with a sequence of recent minor mergers. In order to probe merger-induced star-formation mechanisms, we conducted observations of the molecular-gas content of 35 star-forming DP galaxies in the upper part of the main sequence (MS) of star formation (SF) with the IRAM 30 m telescope. Including similar galaxies 0.3 dex above the MS and with existing molecular-gas observations from the literature, we finally obtained a sample of 52 such galaxies. We succeeded in fitting the same kinematic parameters to the optical ionised- and molecular-gas emission lines for ten (19%) galaxies. We find a central star-formation enhancement resulting most likely from a galaxy merger or galaxy interaction, which is indicated by an excess of gas extinction found in the centre. This SF is traced by radio continuum emissions at 150 MHz, 1.4 GHz, and 3 GHz, all three of which are linearly correlated in log with the CO luminosity with the same slope. The 52 DP galaxies are found to have a significantly larger amount of molecular gas and longer depletion times, and hence a lower star-formation efficiency, than the expected values at their distance of the MS. The large bulges in these galaxies might be stabilising the gas, hence reducing the SF efficiency. This is consistent with a scenario of minor mergers increasing the mass of bulges and driving gas to the centre. We also excluded the inwards-directed gas migration and central star-formation enhancement as the origin of a bar morphology. Hence, these 52 DP galaxies could be the result of recent minor mergers that funnelled molecular gas towards their centre, triggering SF, but with moderate efficiency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Decoding NGC 7252 as a blue elliptical galaxy

Elliptical galaxies with blue optical colours and significant star formation are hypothesised to be major merger remnants of gas-rich spiral galaxies or normal elliptical galaxies with a sudden burst of star formation. We present here a scenario in which blue elliptical galaxies identified in shallow imaging surveys may fail to recover faint features that are indicative of past merger activity using a nearby major merger remnant. Based on deep optical imaging data of the post-merger galaxy, NGC 7252, we demonstrate that the galaxy can appear as an elliptical galaxy if it is observed at higher redshifts. The main body and the low surface brightness merger features found at the outskirts of the galaxy are blue in the optical g – r colour map. We argue that the higher-redshift blue elliptical galaxies discovered in surveys as shallow as the SDSS or DECaLS may be advanced mergers whose defining tidal features fall below the detection limits of the surveys. This should be taken into consideration during the morphological classification of these systems in future and ongoing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mapping the Perseus galaxy cluster with XRISM: Gas kinematic features and their implications for turbulence

We present extended gas kinematic maps of the Perseus cluster based on a combination of five new XRISM/Resolve pointings observed in 2025 with four performance verification datasets from 2024, totaling a net exposure of 745 ks. To date, Perseus remains the only cluster that has been extensively mapped out to ≃0.7 r 2500 by XRISM/Resolve, while simultaneously offering sufficient spatial resolution to resolve gaseous substructures driven by mergers and active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback. Our observations cover multiple radial directions and a broad range of dynamical scales, enabling us to characterize the kinematic properties of the intracluster medium up to a scale of ∼500 kpc. In the measurements, we detected high-velocity dispersions (≃300km s −1 ) in the eastern region of the cluster that are spatially coincident with the extended X-ray surface brightness excess and correspond to a nonthermal pressure fraction of ≃7 − 13%. The velocity field outside the AGN-dominant region can be effectively described by a single, large-scale kinematic driver based on the velocity structure function, which statistically favors an energy injection scale of at least a few hundred kpc. The estimated turbulent dissipation energy is comparable to the gravitational potential energy released by a recent merger, implying a significant role of turbulent cascade in the merger energy conversion. In the bulk velocity field, we observed a dipole-like pattern along the east-west direction with an amplitude of ≃ ± 200 − 300 km s −1 , indicating rotational motions induced by the recent merger event. This feature constrains the viewing direction to ≃30° −50° relative to the normal of the merger plane. Our hydrodynamic simulations suggest that Perseus has experienced at least two energetic mergers since redshift z ∼ 1, the most recent of which is associated with the radio galaxy IC310, in agreement with recent SRG/eROSITA findings. This study showcases exciting scientific opportunities for future missions with high-resolution spectroscopic capabilities (e.g., HUBS, LEM, and NewAthena).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Galaxy pairs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey – XV. Properties of ionized outflows

ABSTRACT Powerful outflows are thought to play a critical role in galaxy evolution and black hole growth. We present the first large-scale systematic study of ionized outflows in paired galaxies and post-mergers compared to a robust control sample of isolated galaxies. We isolate the impact of the merger environment to determine if outflow properties depend on merger stage. Our sample contains ∼4000 paired galaxies and ∼250 post-mergers in the local universe (0.02 ≤ z ≤ 0.2) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS DR 7) matched in stellar mass, redshift, local density of galaxies, and [O iii] λ5007 luminosity to a control sample of isolated galaxies. By fitting the [O iii] λ5007 line, we find ionized outflows in ∼15 per cent of our entire sample. Outflows are much rarer in star-forming galaxies compared to active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and outflow incidence and velocity increase with [O iii] λ5007 luminosity. Outflow incidence is significantly elevated in the optical + mid-infrared selected AGN compared to purely optical AGN; over 60 per cent show outflows at the highest luminosities ($L_{\mathrm{[OIII]~\lambda 5007}}\, \gtrsim$ 1042 erg s−1), suggesting mid-infrared AGN selection favours galaxies with powerful outflows, at least for higher [O iii] λ5007 luminosities. However, we find no statistically significant difference in outflow incidence, velocity, and luminosity in mergers compared to isolated galaxies, and there is no dependence on merger stage. Therefore, while interactions are predicted to drive gas inflows and subsequently trigger nuclear star formation and accretion activity, when the power source of the outflow is controlled for, the merging environment has no further impact on the large-scale ionized outflows as traced by [O iii] λ5007.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reverse phase transitions in binary neutron-star systems with exotic-matter cores

Multimessenger observations of binary neutron-star mergers provide a unique opportunity to constrain the dense-matter equation of state. Although it is known from quantum chromodynamics that hadronic matter will undergo a phase transition to exotic forms of matter—e.g., quark matter—the onset density of such a phase transition cannot be computed from first principles. Hence, it remains an open question if such phase transitions occur inside isolated neutron stars or during binary neutron-star mergers, or if they appear at even higher densities that are not realized in the cosmos. Here, in this article, we perform numerical relativity simulations of neutron-star mergers and investigate scenarios in which the onset density of such a phase transition is exceeded in at least one inspiraling binary component. Our simulations reveal that shortly before the merger, it is possible that such stars undergo a “reverse phase transition”—i.e., densities decrease and the quark core inside the star disappears, leaving a purely hadronic star at merger. After the merger, when densities increase once more, the phase transition occurs again and leads, in the cases considered in this work, to the rapid formation of a black hole. We compute the gravitational-wave signal and the mass ejection for our simulations of such scenarios and find clear signatures that are related to the postmerger phase transition—e.g., smaller ejecta masses due to the softening of the equation of state through the quark core formation. Unfortunately, we do not find measurable imprints of the reverse phase transition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bulk Viscosity in Dense Nuclear Matter

NEUTRON star mergers are an extreme environment where, within milliseconds, the cold, dense matter in neutron stars is dramatically heated to some of the hottest temperatures encountered in astrophysics. Matter in neutron star mergers is located solidly in the interior of the QCD phase diagram, and therefore, the observation and simulation of these mergers provides an opportunity to learn about the strong interaction at a set of densities and temperatures that compliment those obtained in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. Matter during the merger of two neutron stars is far from hydrostatic equilibrium, allowing for the study of not only the equation of state of dense matter, but of transport properties as well. Perhaps the most likely transport property to play a role in neutron star mergers is the bulk viscosity, which acts to resist changes in density. Furthermore, the bulk viscosity of matter at high densities has long been anticipated to damp oscillations in isolated neutron stars, and the study of its role in neutron star mergers is just beginning.

Harris, Steven P.↗

Gamma Rays from Kilonova: A Potential Probe of r-process Nucleosynthesis

The mergers of compact binaries with at least one neutron star component are the potential leading sites of the production and ejection of r-process elements. Discoveries of galactic binary pulsars, short gamma-ray bursts, and gravitational-wave detections have all been constraining the rate of these events, while the gravitational wave plus broadband electromagnetic coverage of binary neutron star merger (GW170817) has also placed constraints on the properties (mass and composition) of the merger ejecta. But uncertainties and ambiguities in modeling the optical and infrared emission make it difficult to definitively measure the distribution of heavy isotopes in these mergers. In contrast, gamma rays emitted in the decay of these neutron-rich ejecta may provide a more direct measurement of the yields. We calculate the gamma production in remnants of neutron star mergers, considering two epochs: a kilonova epoch, lasting about two weeks, and a much later epoch of tens and hundreds of thousands of years after the merger. For the kilonova epoch, when the expanding ejecta is still only partially transparent to gamma radiation, we use 3D radiative transport simulations to produce the spectra. Futhermore, we show that the gamma-ray spectra associated with beta- and alpha-decay provide a fingerprint of the ejecta properties and, for a sufficiently nearby remnant, may be detectable, even for old remnants. We compare our gamma spectra with the potential detection limits of next generation detectors, including the Lunar Occultation Explorer (LOX), the All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory (AMEGO), and the Compton Spectrometer and Imager (COSI). We show that fission models can be discriminated via the presence of short-lived fission fragments in the remnant spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraints on the Physical Properties of GW190814 through Simulations Based on DECam Follow-up Observations by the Dark Energy Survey

On 2019 August 14, the LIGO and Virgo Collaborations detected gravitational waves from a black hole and a 2.6 solar mass compact object, possibly the first neutron star–black hole merger. In search of an optical counterpart, the Dark Energy Survey (DES) obtained deep imaging of the entire 90% confidence level localization area with Blanco/DECam 0, 1, 2, 3, 6, and 16 nights after the merger. Objects with varying brightness were detected by the DES Pipeline, and we systematically reduced the candidate counterparts through catalog matching, light-curve properties, host-galaxy photometric redshifts, Southern Astrophysical Research spectroscopic follow-up observations, and machine-learning-based photometric classification. All candidates were rejected as counterparts to the merger. To quantify the sensitivity of our search, we applied our selection criteria to full light-curve simulations of supernovae and kilonovae as they would appear in the DECam observations. Because the source class of the merger was uncertain, we utilized an agnostic, three-component kilonova model based on tidally disrupted neutron star (NS) ejecta properties to quantify our detection efficiency of a counterpart if the merger included an NS. We find that, if a kilonova occurred during this merger, configurations where the ejected matter is greater than 0.07 solar masses, has lanthanide abundance less than 10 -8.56 , and has a velocity between 0.18c and 0.21c are disfavored at the 2σ level. Furthermore, we estimate that our background reduction methods are capable of associating gravitational wave signals with a detected electromagnetic counterpart at the 4σ level in 95% of future follow-up observations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Particle-in-cell Simulations of Mildly Relativistic Outflows in Kilonova Emissions

Abstract The electromagnetic emission from neutron star mergers is comprised of multiple components. Synchrotron emission from the disk-powered jet and thermal emission from the merger ejecta (powered by a variety of sources) are among the most studied sources. The low masses and high velocities of the merger ejecta quickly develop conditions where emission from collisionless shocks becomes critical and synchrotron emission from the merger ejecta constitutes a third component to the observed signal. The aim of this project is to examine shock development, magnetic field generation, and particle acceleration in the case of mildly relativistic shocks, which are expected when the tidal ejecta of neutron star mergers drive a shock into the external medium. Using LANL’s vector particle-in-cell (VPIC) code, we have run simulations of such mildly relativistic, collisionless, weakly magnetized plasmas and computed the resultant magnetic fields and particle energy spectra. We show the effects of varying plasma conditions, as well as explore the validity of using different proton-to-electron mass ratios in VPIC. Our results have implications for observing late-time electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave detections of neutron star mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Model-independent discovery prospects for primordial black holes at LIGO

ABSTRACT Primordial black holes may encode the conditions of the early Universe, and may even constitute a significant fraction of cosmological dark matter. Their existence has yet to be established. However, black holes with masses below ${\sim}{1}{\, \mathrm{M}_\odot }$ cannot form as an endpoint of stellar evolution, so the detection of even one such object would be a smoking gun for new physics, and would constitute evidence that at least a fraction of the dark matter consists of primordial black holes. Gravitational wave detectors are capable of making a definitive discovery of this kind by detecting mergers of light black holes. But since the merger rate depends strongly on the shape of the black hole mass function, it is difficult to determine the potential for discovery or constraint as a function of the overall abundance of black holes. Here, we directly maximize and minimize the merger rate to connect observational results to the actual abundance of observable objects. We show that LIGO can discover mergers of light primordial black holes within the next decade even if such black holes constitute only a very small fraction of dark matter. A single merger event involving such an object would (i) provide conclusive evidence of new physics, (ii) establish the nature of some fraction of dark matter, and (iii) probe cosmological history at scales far beyond those observable today.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radiation hydrodynamics modelling of kilonovae with SNEC

ABSTRACT We develop a method to compute synthetic kilonova light curves that combine numerical relativity simulations of neutron star mergers and the SNEC radiation–hydrodynamics code. We describe our implementation of initial and boundary conditions, r-process heating, and opacities for kilonova simulations. We validate our approach by carefully checking that energy conservation is satisfied and by comparing the SNEC results with those of two semi-analytic light-curve models. We apply our code to the calculation of colour light curves for three binaries having different mass ratios (equal and unequal mass) and different merger outcome (short-lived and long-lived remnants). We study the sensitivity of our results to hydrodynamic effects, nuclear physics uncertainties in the heating rates, and duration of the merger simulations. We find that hydrodynamics effects are typically negligible and that homologous expansion is a good approximation in most cases. However, pressure forces can amplify the impact of uncertainties in the radioactive heating rates. We also study the impact of shocks possibly launched into the outflows by a relativistic jet. None of our models match AT2017gfo, the kilonova in GW170817. This points to possible deficiencies in our merger simulations and kilonova models that neglect non-LTE effects and possible additional energy injection from the merger remnant and to the need to go beyond the assumption of spherical symmetry adopted in this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The High Fraction of Thin Disk Galaxies Continues to Challenge ΛCDM Cosmology

Any viable cosmological framework has to match the observed proportion of early- and late-type galaxies. In this contribution, we focus on the distribution of galaxy morphological types in the standard model of cosmology (Lambda cold dark matter, ΛCDM). Using the latest state-of-the-art cosmological ΛCDM simulations known as Illustris, IllustrisTNG, and EAGLE, we calculate the intrinsic and sky-projected aspect ratio distribution of the stars in subhalos with stellar mass M * > 10 10 M ⊙ at redshift z = 0. There is a significant deficit of intrinsically thin disk galaxies, which however comprise most of the locally observed galaxy population. Consequently, the sky-projected aspect ratio distribution produced by these ΛCDM simulations disagrees with the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey and Sloan Digital Sky Survey at ≥12.52σ (TNG50-1) and ≥14.82σ (EAGLE50) confidence. The deficit of intrinsically thin galaxies could be due to a much less hierarchical merger-driven build-up of observed galaxies than is given by the ΛCDM framework. It might also arise from the implemented sub-grid models, or from the limited resolution of the above-mentioned hydrodynamical simulations. We estimate that an 8 5 times better mass resolution realization than TNG50-1 would reduce the tension with GAMA to the 5.58σ level. Finally, we show that galaxies with fewer major mergers have a somewhat thinner aspect ratio distribution. Given also the high expected frequency of minor mergers in ΛCDM, the problem may be due to minor mergers. In this case, the angular momentum problem could be alleviated in Milgromian dynamics because of a reduced merger frequency arising from the absence of dynamical friction between extended dark matter halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The role of supernova convection for the lower mass gap in the isolated binary formation of gravitational wave sources

ABSTRACT Understanding the astrophysical phenomena involving compact objects requires an insight about the engine behind the core-collapse supernovae (SNe) and the fate of the stellar collapse of massive stars. In particular, this insight is crucial in developing an understanding of the origin and formation channels of the growing populations of the detected black hole–black hole, black hole–neutron star, and neutron star–neutron star mergers. The time-scale of convection growth may have a large effect on the strength of SN explosion and therefore also on the mass distribution of stellar remnants. We adopt new formulas for the relation between the pre-SN star properties and their remnants and check how they impact the population of double compact object (DCO) mergers formed via the isolated binary evolution. The new formulas give one the ability to test a wide spectrum of assumptions on the convection growth time. In particular, the different variants allow for a smooth transition between having a deep mass gap and a remnant mass distribution filled by massive neutron stars and low-mass black holes. We present the distribution of masses, mass ratios, and the local merger rate densities of DCO for the different variants of new formulas and test them together with different approaches to other highly uncertain processes. We find that the mass distribution of DCO mergers is sensitive to the adopted assumption on the SN convection growth time-scale up to $m_1+m_2 \lesssim 35 \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$. Between the two extreme tested variants the probability of compact object formation within the mass gap may differ by up to approximately two orders of magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BSE versus StarTrack: Implementations of new wind, remnant-formation, and natal-kick schemes in NBODY7 and their astrophysical consequences

As a result of their formation via massive single and binary stellar evolution, the masses of stellar-remnant black holes (BH) are subjects of great interest in this era of gravitational-wave detection from binary black hole (BBH) and binary neutron star merger events. In this work, we present new developments in the stellar-remnant formation and related schemes of the current N-body evolution program NBODY7. We demonstrate that the newly implemented stellar-wind and remnant-formation schemes in the stellar-evolutionary sector or BSE of the NBODY7 code, such as the “rapid” and the “delayed” supernova (SN) schemes along with an implementation of pulsational-pair-instability and pair-instability supernova (PPSN/PSN), now produce neutron star (NS) and BH masses that agree nearly perfectly, over large ranges of zero-age-main-sequence (ZAMS) mass and metallicity, with those from the widely recognised StarTrack population-synthesis program. We also demonstrate the new, recipe-based implementations of various widely debated mechanisms of natal kicks on NSs and BHs, such as “convection-asymmetry-driven”, “collapse-asymmetry-driven”, and “neutrino-emission-driven” kicks, in addition to a fully consistent implementation of the standard, fallback-dependent, momentum-conserving natal kick. All the above newly implemented schemes are also shared with the standalone versions of SSE and BSE. Furthermore, all these demonstrations are performed with both the updated standalone BSE and the updated NBODY7/BSE. When convolved with stellar and primordial-binary populations as observed in young massive clusters, such remnant-formation and natal-kick mechanisms crucially determine the accumulated number, mass, and mass distribution of the BHs retained in young massive, open, and globular clusters (GCs); these BHs would eventually become available for long-term dynamical processing. Among other conclusions, we find that although the newer, delayed SN remnant formation model gives birth to the largest number (mass) of BHs, the older remnant-formation schemes cause the largest number (mass) of BHs to survive in clusters, when incorporating SN material fallback onto the BHs. The SN material fallback also causes the convection-asymmetry-driven SN kick to effectively retain similar numbers and masses of BHs in clusters as for the standard, momentum-conserving kick. The collapse-asymmetry-driven SN kick would cause nearly all BHs to be retained in clusters irrespective of their mass, remnant-formation model, and metallicity, whereas the inference of a large population of BHs in GCs would potentially rule out the neutrino-driven SN kick mechanism. Pre-SN mergers of massive primordial binaries would potentially cause BH masses to deviate from the theoretical, single-star ZAMS to mass-remnant mass relation unless a substantial of the total merging stellar mass of up to ≈40% is lost during a merger process. In particular, such mergers, at low metallicities, have the potential to produce low-spinning BHs within the PSN mass gap that can be retained in a stellar cluster and be available for subsequent dynamical interactions. As recent studies indicate, the new remnant-formation modelling reassures us that young massive and open clusters would potentially contribute to the dynamical BBH merger detection rate to a similar extent as their more massive GC counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Nucleosynthesis in outflows of compact objects and detection prospects of associated kilonovae

ABSTRACT We perform a comparative analysis of nucleosynthesis yields from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, black hole-neutron star (BHNS) mergers, and core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) with the goal of determining which are the most dominant sources of r-process enrichment observed in stars. We find that BNS and BHNS binaries may eject similar mass distributions of robust r-process nuclei post-merger (up to third peak and actinides, A ∼ 200−240), after accounting for the volumetric event rates. Magnetorotational (MR) CCSNe likely undergo a weak r-process (up to A ∼ 140) and contribute to the production of light element primary process (LEPP) nuclei, whereas typical thermal, neutrino-driven CCSNe only synthesize up to first r-process peak nuclei (A ∼ 80−90). We also find that the upper limit to the rate of MR CCSNe is $\lesssim 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ the rate of typical thermal CCSNe; if the rate was higher, then weak r-process nuclei would be overproduced. Although the largest uncertainty is from the volumetric event rate, the prospects are encouraging for confirming these rates in the next few years with upcoming surveys. Using a simple model to estimate the resulting kilonova light curve from mergers and our set of fiducial merger parameters, we predict that ∼7 BNS and ∼2 BHNS events will be detectable per year by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (LSST), with prior gravitational wave (GW) triggers.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

The Milky Way and M31 orbital history: did the Local Group evolve in isolation?

ABSTRACT We use new measurements of the M31 proper motion to examine the Milky Way (MW) – M31 orbit and angular momentum. For Local Group (LG) mass consistent with measured values, and assuming the system evolves in isolation, we show a wide range of orbits is possible. We compare to a sample of LG-like systems in the Illustris simulation, and find that ∼13 per cent of these pairs have undergone a pericentric passage. Using the simulated sample, we examine how accurately an isolated, two-body model describes the MW–M31 orbit, and show that ∼10 per cent of the analogues in the simulation are well-modelled by such an orbit. Systems that evolve in isolation by this definition are found to have a lower rate of major mergers, and in particular have no major mergers since $z \approx 0.3$. For all systems, we find an increase in the orbital angular momentum which is fairly independent of the merger rate, and is possibly explained by the influence of tidal torques on the LG. Given the likely quiet recent major merger history of the MW, it is plausible that the isolated two-body model appropriately describes the orbit, though recent evidence for a major merger in M31 may complicate this interpretation.

Hartl, Odelia V. (ORCID:0000000202379726)↗