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NASA NTRS2007

Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

Mackey, Ryan↗

NASA NTRS2007

POD Model Reconstruction for Gray-Box Fault Detection

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is the mathematical basis of a method of constructing low-order mathematical models for the "gray-box" fault-detection algorithm that is a component of a diagnostic system known as beacon-based exception analysis for multi-missions (BEAM). POD has been successfully applied in reducing computational complexity by generating simple models that can be used for control and simulation for complex systems such as fluid flows. In the present application to BEAM, POD brings the same benefits to automated diagnosis. BEAM is a method of real-time or offline, automated diagnosis of a complex dynamic system.The gray-box approach makes it possible to utilize incomplete or approximate knowledge of the dynamics of the system that one seeks to diagnose. In the gray-box approach, a deterministic model of the system is used to filter a time series of system sensor data to remove the deterministic components of the time series from further examination. What is left after the filtering operation is a time series of residual quantities that represent the unknown (or at least unmodeled) aspects of the behavior of the system. Stochastic modeling techniques are then applied to the residual time series. The procedure for detecting abnormal behavior of the system then becomes one of looking for statistical differences between the residual time series and the predictions of the stochastic model.

Park, Han↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-destructive electrochemical diagnosis of failure mechanisms in aqueous zinc batteries

The early detection of secondary reactions that affect the life and performance of zinc manganese oxide batteries requires a shift from conventional time-consuming and often destructive procedures to rapid lifetime-predictive techniques. In this work, an electrochemical approach is employed to elucidate independent signatures for four common types of failure mechanisms in zinc manganese dioxide (Zn||MnO2) batteries—namely, the loss of zinc inventory, the loss of active material at the cathode, electrolyte depletion, and increased cell impedance. Our findings, specific to coin cell configurations, reveal that each induced failure mechanism can be distinctively modeled and identified based on responses from the rest voltage and columbic-efficiency data for prompt detection. For instance, electrolyte depletion response manifests a distinctive abrupt (>80 %) decrease in columbic efficiency (CE) and charge-rest voltage (Vc) while the discharge-rest voltage remained constant at ~1.3 V. Furthermore, electrolyte rejuvenation of the cell increased the CE to >95 % and restored Vc from ~0.3 to >1.7 V. Recovery experiments and reference performance tests demonstrated consistency between electrochemical descriptors and their associated failure mechanisms. Further, the outcomes of this work provide valuable insights and data models for some of the dominant failure mechanisms present in zinc manganese battery chemistries, which are beneficial to accelerated early-lifetime diagnosis and advancement of Zn batteries development.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1992

Model-based reasoning in SSF ECLSS

The interacting processes and reconfigurable subsystems of the Space Station Freedom Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) present a tremendous technical challenge to Freedom's crew and ground support. ECLSS operation and problem analysis is time-consuming for crew members and difficult for current computerized control, monitoring, and diagnostic software. These challenges can be at least partially mitigated by the use of advanced techniques such as Model-Based Reasoning (MBR). This paper will provide an overview of MBR as it is being applied to Space Station Freedom ECLSS. It will report on work being done to produce intelligent systems to help design, control, monitor, and diagnose Freedom's ECLSS. Specifically, work on predictive monitoring, diagnosability, and diagnosis, with emphasis on the automated diagnosis of the regenerative water recovery and air revitalization processes will be discussed.

Miller, J. K.↗

NASA NTRS2015

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Simon, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-constrained fault diagnosis framework for monitoring a standalone component of a thermal hydraulic system

A method for diagnosing faults includes receiving a description of a component of a thermal hydraulic system, where the description also indicates one or more sensors of the component. The method also includes constructing, based on a physical conservation law and using the description, a physics-based model describing operation of the component, the physics-based model including one or more unknown parameters. The method further includes calibrating the physics-based model by calculating the one or more unknown parameters using historical measurements to produce a calibrated model. Further, the method includes receiving sensor measurements captured by the one or more sensors, and calculating residuals corresponding to differences between measurements predicted by the calibrated model and the sensor measurements. The method also includes determining, based on the calculated residuals, a fault of the component or of a sensor of the one or more sensors, and generating an alert indicating the fault.

Nguyen, Tat Nghia↗

DOE OSTI2022

Different CT slice thickness and contrast‐enhancement phase in radiomics models on the differential performance of lung adenocarcinoma

Abstract Background To investigate the effects of computed tomography (CT) reconstruction slice thickness and contrast‐enhancement phase on the differential diagnosis performance of radiomic signature in lung adenocarcinoma. Methods A total of 187 patients who had been pathologically confirmed with lung adenocarcinoma and nonadenocarcinoma were divided into a training cohort ( n = 149) and validation cohort ( n = 38). All the patients underwent contrast‐enhanced CT and the images were reconstructed with different slice thickness. The radiomic features were extracted from different slice thickness and scan phase. The logistic regression (LR) algorithm was used to build a machine learning model for each group. The area under the curve (AUC) obtained from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and DeLong test was used to evaluate its discriminating performance. Results Finally, 34 image features and five semantic features were selected to establish a radiomics model. Based on the three contrast‐enhanced CT phases and four reconstruction slice thickness, 12 groups of radiomics models showed good discrimination ability with the AUCs range from 0.9287 to 0.9631, sensitivity range from 0.8349 to 0.9083, specificity range from 0.825 to 0.925 in the training group. Similar results were observed in the validation group. However, there was no statistical significance between the different CT scan phase groups and different slice thickness ( p > 0.05). Conclusions The radiomic analysis of contrast‐enhanced CT can be used for the differential diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma. Moreover, different slice thickness and contrast‐enhanced scan phase did not affect the discriminating ability in the radiomics models.

Wang, Yang↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of Expert Vocabulary Usage Patterns Between Mental Health and Nonmental Health Clinicians When Diagnosing Pediatric Anxiety Disorders

Objective: To compare the utilization patterns of expert vocabulary (EVo) in diagnosing pediatric anxiety between mental health and non-mental health clinical notes from electronic health records to understand the role of Evo in informing classification and decision-making in anxiety diagnoses. Study design: We conducted a retrospective study using a cohort less than age 25 from Cincinnati Children's Hospital including 897 685 patients with 61 586 446 notes. We analyzed EVo, collected from mental health clinicians, in both mental and nonmental health notes. We compared classification accuracy using EVo-based patient-level embedding from all clinical notes, mental-health notes, and nonmental health notes for 2 tasks: 1) pre-vs postdiagnosis anxiety patients, and 2) prediagnosis anxiety vs nonanxiety patients. Results: EVo usage was highest in prediagnosis anxiety, lower in nonanxiety, and lowest in post-diagnosis. Classification models using EVo features from all, mental-health, and non-mental health notes showed similar F1 scores for prediagnosis anxiety (0.70 ± 0.2 for 2 categories). For anxiety vs nonanxiety classification, all clinical and nonmental health notes had better F1 scores than mental-health notes (above 0.90 for 3 categories). There was a notable difference in class-wise performance across both tasks. Conclusions: There are significant differences in anxiety EVo use between mental health and nonmental health clinicians. Despite less anxiety-specific terminology, non-mental health notes still captured key aspects of patient presentations, emphasizing the importance of including all clinicians' notes in analysis. EVo's utility for anxiety classification is most effective in prediagnostic phases, suggesting the need for a dedicated diagnostic lexicon and further study before incorporating EVo into classification models.

feature engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Consistent performance of large language models in rare disease diagnosis across ten languages and 4917 cases

Background Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used medicine for diverse applications including differential diagnostic support. The training data used to create LLMs such as the Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) predominantly consist of English-language texts, but LLMs could be used across the globe to support diagnostics if language barriers could be overcome. Initial pilot studies on the utility of LLMs for differential diagnosis in languages other than English have shown promise, but a large-scale assessment on the relative performance of these models in a variety of European and non-European languages on a comprehensive corpus of challenging rare-disease cases is lacking. Methods We created 4917 clinical vignettes using structured data captured with Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) terms with the Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) Phenopacket Schema. These clinical vignettes span a total of 360 distinct genetic diseases with 2525 associated phenotypic features. We used translations of the Human Phenotype Ontology together with language-specific templates to generate prompts in English, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Spanish, and Turkish. We applied GPT-4o, version gpt-4o-2024-08-06, and the medically fine-tuned Meditron3-70B to the task of delivering a ranked differential diagnosis using a zero-shot prompt. An ontology-based approach with the Mondo disease ontology was used to map synonyms and to map disease subtypes to clinical diagnoses in order to automate evaluation of LLM responses. Findings For English, GPT-4o placed the correct diagnosis at the first rank 19.9% and within the top-3 ranks 27.0% of the time. In comparison, for the nine non-English languages tested here the correct diagnosis was placed at rank 1 between 16.9% and 20.6%, within top-3 between 25.4% and 28.6% of cases. The Meditron3 model placed the correct diagnosis within the first 3 ranks for 20.9% of cases in English and between 19.9% and 24.0% for the other nine languages. Interpretation The differential diagnostic performance of LLMs across a comprehensive corpus of rare-disease cases was largely consistent across the ten languages tested. This suggests that the utility of LLMs in clinical settings may extend to non-English clinical settings.

Artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS1993

Simulations of satellite Doppler wind observations

This study will involve two objectives: (1) to develop, through computer simulations, optimal satellite-based sensor scanning techniques for direct measurement of tropospheric winds on the meso- and synoptic scales; and (2) to construct simulations of remotely measured wind fields for assessing impact of such fields on the diagnosis and prognosis of atmospheric phenomena through the use of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE). Using the LAWS Simulation Model (LSM), various global coverage scenarios have been investigated as part of an effort to define the optimal orbit, configuration and sampling strategies for observations of winds for use in global circulation models. Simulated data sets have been provided to GSFC, FSU and several LAWS team members. Particular emphasis has been on providing realistic cloud cover, cirrus backscatter, aerosol distribution and wind variance on scales less than 600 km. Progress is currently being made to incorporate other remote sensors (AIRS/AMSU, STIKSCAT) into the global OSSEs.

Emmitt, George D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

General Purpose Data-Driven System Monitoring for Space Operations

Modern space propulsion and exploration system designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems using traditional methods is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grows. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications. IMS uses a data mining technique called clustering to analyze archived system data and characterize normal interactions between parameters. This characterization, or model, of nominal operation is stored in a knowledge base that can be used for real-time system monitoring or for analysis of archived events. Ongoing and developing IMS space operations applications include International Space Station flight control, satellite vehicle system health management, launch vehicle ground operations, and fleet supportability. As a common thread of discussion this paper will employ the evolution of the IMS data-driven technique as related to several Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) elements. Thematically, the projects listed will be used as case studies. The maturation of IMS via projects where it has been deployed, or is currently being integrated to aid in fault detection will be described. The paper will also explain how IMS can be used to complement a suite of other ISHM tools, providing initial fault detection support for diagnosis and recovery.

Satellites↗

DOE OSTI2025

SigTime: Learning and Visually Explaining Time Series Signatures

Understanding and distinguishing temporal patterns in time series data is essential for scientific discovery and decision-making. For example, in biomedical research, uncovering meaningful patterns in physiological signals can improve diagnosis, risk assessment, and patient outcomes. However, existing methods for time series pattern discovery face major challenges, including high computational complexity, limited interpretability, and difficulty in capturing meaningful temporal structures. Here, to address these gaps, we introduce a novel learning framework that jointly trains two Transformer models using complementary time series representations: shapelet-based representations to capture localized temporal structures and traditional feature engineering to encode statistical properties. The learned shapelets serve as interpretable signatures that differentiate time series across classification labels. Additionally, we develop a visual analytics system—SigTime—with coordinated views to facilitate exploration of time series signatures from multiple perspectives, aiding in useful insights generation. We quantitatively evaluate our learning framework on eight publicly available datasets and one proprietary clinical dataset. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our system through two usage scenarios along with the domain experts: one involving public ECG data and the other focused on preterm labor analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Flight deck engine advisor

The focus of this project is on alerting pilots to impending events in such a way as to provide the additional time required for the crew to make critical decisions concerning non-normal operations. The project addresses pilots' need for support in diagnosis and trend monitoring of faults as they affect decisions that must be made within the context of the current flight. Monitoring and diagnostic modules developed under the NASA Faultfinder program were restructured and enhanced using input data from an engine model and real engine fault data. Fault scenarios were prepared to support knowledge base development activities on the MONITAUR and DRAPhyS modules of Faultfinder. An analysis of the information requirements for fault management was included in each scenario. A conceptual framework was developed for systematic evaluation of the impact of context variables on pilot action alternatives as a function of event/fault combinations.

Shontz, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Development of a Supervisory Tool for Fault Detection and Diagnosis of DC Electric Power Systems with the Application of Deep Space Vehicles

This dissertation formulates the problem of fault detection and diagnosis of DC electric power systems for the application of autonomous spacecraft. The ability to accurately identify and isolate failures in the electrical power system is critical to ensure the reliability of a spacecraft. This problem becomes more pronounced during deep space missions that lack the ability to monitor from ground control. The current state of electrical power system fault supervision is insufficient to guarantee highly reliable and robust operation. To solve this issue, a combination of model-based and rules-based techniques are used in a hierarchical framework to improve the diagnostic performance of the spacecraft electrical power system. Noise, disturbances, and modeling errors are considered in the design of the method. Practical considerations related to the hardware and software are discussed for the flight application. A wide array of failure types are simulated in a series of experiments to assess the functionality of the design. The experiments showed that the methods used improved the diagnostic capability of the autonomous system while taking into account the limitations attributed to flight software requirements. The significance of this study is to provide a framework capable of advanced diagnostics of an electrical power system with little to no interaction from a human operator.

Fault Detection and Diagnosis↗

NASA NTRS2005

Fault Diagnosis in HVAC Chillers

Modern buildings are being equipped with increasingly sophisticated power and control systems with substantial capabilities for monitoring and controlling the amenities. Operational problems associated with heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems plague many commercial buildings, often the result of degraded equipment, failed sensors, improper installation, poor maintenance, and improperly implemented controls. Most existing HVAC fault-diagnostic schemes are based on analytical models and knowledge bases. These schemes are adequate for generic systems. However, real-world systems significantly differ from the generic ones and necessitate modifications of the models and/or customization of the standard knowledge bases, which can be labor intensive. Data-driven techniques for fault detection and isolation (FDI) have a close relationship with pattern recognition, wherein one seeks to categorize the input-output data into normal or faulty classes. Owing to the simplicity and adaptability, customization of a data-driven FDI approach does not require in-depth knowledge of the HVAC system. It enables the building system operators to improve energy efficiency and maintain the desired comfort level at a reduced cost. In this article, we consider a data-driven approach for FDI of chillers in HVAC systems. To diagnose the faults of interest in the chiller, we employ multiway dynamic principal component analysis (MPCA), multiway partial least squares (MPLS), and support vector machines (SVMs). The simulation of a chiller under various fault conditions is conducted using a standard chiller simulator from the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE). We validated our FDI scheme using experimental data obtained from different types of chiller faults.

Choi, Kihoon↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform: Technical Report 3

This project is a collaborative research effort between PKMJ Technical Services LLC, Idaho National Laboratory, and Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Nuclear, LLC. The collaboration, led by PKMJ Technical Services LLC, is part of the industry Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) award under Advanced Nuclear Technology Development FOA #DE-FOA-0001817. The pilot demonstration focuses on the Circulating Water System (CWS), an important non-safety-related system that impacts the power generation capability of the plant site. Achieving riskinformed condition-based Predictive Maintenance (PdM) on the CWS will result in significant economic benefits, and the developed methodologies can also be applied to other plant systems. This approach supports an industry goal of ensuring that nuclear power generation remains a viable, economically competitive option in the energy market. Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs include labor-intensive Preventive Maintenance (PM) programs that involve manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies as well as time-based replacement of assets, irrespective of condition. This project offers an alternative by focusing on riskinformed condition-based maintenance to reduce O&M costs while still maintaining plant health and safety. This report summarizes the progress made toward achieving a risk-informed condition-based maintenance approach. The research and development (R&D) activities presented in this report are associated with development of a nuclear digital platform application, integration of fault signature models, and automated work management processes. The fault signatures and Machine Learning (ML) models are key components in predictive analytics and are heavily leveraged to improve the insights received by existing plant process data sources. Availability of the analysis results within a centralized digital platform enhances efficiency by enabling automation of activities otherwise performed manually. Personnel are presented with enhanced information that can be used to evaluate plant status and risks. Utilizing the enhancements to data analytics supports automated responses, (i.e. issuance of work orders) to address developing equipment faults and thus preventing forced, unplanned shutdowns of components or systems. The R&D activities described within this report lay the foundation for developing and demonstrating a digital automated platform to centralize the implementation of condition monitoring and response to equipment faults. The digital automated platform is cloud-based and designed to enable improved efficiency of plant processes. The digital platform includes content related to maintenance optimization, fault signature analysis, and plant records, which can all be used to support efficiencies when located within a centralized digital platform. These efficiencies could be further enhanced when deployed through industry-wide deployment of the technology to improve insights and processes based upon economies of scale.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diagnosing nuclear power plant pipe wall thinning due to flow accelerated corrosion using a passive, thermal non-destructive evaluation method: Feasibility assessment via numerical experiments

Flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) in nuclear power plant pipes is one of the leading causes of accidents, fatalities, damage and outages. Current FAC identification methods employ expensive sensing technology and are “active” methods, where the response of the piping system to an externally-generated thermal, mechanical or optical excitation must be measured. As a result, these techniques require a disruptive and time-consuming setup. Here we propose a method that utilizes pipe surface temperature measurements to passively monitor for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning without the need for expensive equipment or post-installation setup time. This diagnostic method utilizes a simulation data-driven diagnostic model to estimate the amount of thickness reduction in a pipe based on changes in measured steady-state pipe temperatures. In order to reduce the computational burden of generating large, simulation-based datasets, the behavior of the insulation of the pipe was modeled using a suitably calibrated heat transfer boundary parameter. Additionally, global sensitivity analysis was performed to determine system parameter(s), such as the temperature of water flowing inside the pipe, which significantly affect the steady state pipe wall temperature and could cause errors in diagnosis. Two diagnostic models, one using only the change in steady-state temperature as an indicator for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning and the other using water temperature as an additional diagnostic model input were evaluated for their ability to estimate thickness reductions in a pipe using simulated pipe wall temperature data. For the numerical experiments conducted in this work, both models estimated wall thickness with errors within 0.5 mm, indicating that the proposed technique can potentially be used as a low-cost, first-pass method for FAC monitoring.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1988

A Methodology for Multiple Rule System Integration and Resolution Within a Singular Knowledge Base

Expert Systems which support knowledge representation by qualitative modeling techniques experience problems, when called upon to support integrated views embodying description and explanation, especially when other factors such as multiple causality, competing rule model resolution, and multiple uses of knowledge representation are included. A series of prototypes are being developed to demonstrate the feasibility of automating the process of systems engineering, design and configuration, and diagnosis and fault management. A study involves not only a generic knowledge representation; it must also support multiple views at varying levels of description and interaction between physical elements, systems, and subsystems. Moreover, it will involve models of description and explanation for each level. This multiple model feature requires the development of control methods between rule systems and heuristics on a meta-level for each expert system involved in an integrated and larger class of expert system. The broadest possible category of interacting expert systems is described along with a general methodology for the knowledge representation and control of mutually exclusive rule systems.

Kautzmann, Frank N., III↗