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DOE OSTI2025

DRE: Designing for Resilience through Emulation

Threats to cyber- and cyber-physical systems have continued to increase over the past decade. Now more than ever, it is vital that cyber-physical system stakeholders have the tools to deeply understand their systems and the threats they face. High-fidelity modeling capabilities are powerful tools to support system understanding and decision-making, but they currently lack scientifically rigorous experimentation practices and infrastructures. The purpose of the project Designing for Resilience through Emulation (DRE) was to bring together past research and existing tools into a new pipeline to improve our ability to quantitatively evaluate future cyber scenarios. DRE offers new integrated capabilities for large dataset collection, noise studies, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and surrogate modeling using a cyber-physical system emulation environment. These new capabilities significantly improve our ability to establish the credibility of the answers derived from emulation environments, ultimately leading to better critical decision support.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS1974

Outer planet probe cost estimates: First impressions

An examination was made of early estimates of outer planetary atmospheric probe cost by comparing the estimates with past planetary projects. Of particular interest is identification of project elements which are likely cost drivers for future probe missions. Data are divided into two parts: first, the description of a cost model developed by SAI for the Planetary Programs Office of NASA, and second, use of this model and its data base to evaluate estimates of probe costs. Several observations are offered in conclusion regarding the credibility of current estimates and specific areas of the outer planet probe concept most vulnerable to cost escalation.

Niehoff, J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Estimates of ground-level mercury vapor concentrations from postulated launch-pad accidents of NASA space transportation systems

NASA has considered the use of mercury ion bombardment engines as extra-terrestrial propulsion systems where low thrust must be provided for long periods of time. However, the mercury fuel in these engines may pose a hazard if it is accidentally released to the troposphere. A description is presented of diffusion-model estimates of maximum 10-minute and 24-hour ground-level concentrations that could result from the accidental release of mercury from Titan/Centaur and Space Shuttle/Tug transportation systems. Three types of accidental release modes have been considered in the concentration calculations. For all three modes, the diffusion-model calculations were made for a variety of meteorological conditions in an effort to obtain estimates of the maximum credible concentrations under 'worst-case' conditions.

Dumbauld, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Can We Trust Computational Modeling for Medical Applications?

Operations in extreme environments such as spaceflight pose human health risks that are currently not well understood and potentially unanticipated. In addition, there are limited clinical and research data to inform development and implementation of therapeutics for these unique health risks. In this light, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is leveraging biomedical computational models and simulations (M&S) to help inform, predict, assess and mitigate spaceflight health and performance risks, and enhance countermeasure development. To ensure that these M&S can be applied with confidence to the space environment, it is imperative to incorporate a rigorous verification, validation and credibility assessment (VV&C) processes to ensure that the computational tools are sufficiently reliable to answer questions within their intended use domain. In this presentation, we will discuss how NASA's Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) have successfully adapted NASA's Standard for Models and Simulations, NASA-STD-7009 (7009) to achieve this goal. These VV&C methods are also being leveraged by organization such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), National Institute of Health (NIH) and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) to establish new M&S VV&C standards and guidelines for healthcare applications. Similarly, we hope to provide some insight to the greater aerospace medicine community on how to develop and implement M&S with sufficient confidence to augment medical research and operations.

Mulugeta, Lealem↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of ozone formation attribution techniques in the northeastern United States

The Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) has been revised in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. This work updates ISAM to maximize its flexibility, particularly for ozone (O 3 ) modeling, by providing multiple attribution options, including products inheriting attribution fully from nitrogen oxide reactants, fully from volatile organic compound (VOC) reactants, equally from all reactants, or dynamically from NO x or VOC reactants based on the indicator gross production ratio of hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) to nitric acid (HNO 3 ). The updated ISAM has been incorporated into the most recent publicly accessible versions of CMAQ (v5.3.2 and beyond). This study's primary objective is to document these ISAM updates and demonstrate their impacts on source apportionment results for O 3 and its precursors. Additionally, the ISAM results are compared with the Ozone Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT) in the Comprehensive Air-quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) and the brute-force method (BF). All comparisons are performed for a 4 km horizontal grid resolution application over the northeastern US for a selected 2 d summer case study (9 and 10 August 2018). General similarities among ISAM, OSAT, and BF results add credibility to the new ISAM algorithms. However, some discrepancies in magnitude or relative proportions among tracked sources illustrate the distinct features of each approach, while others may be related to differences in model formulation of chemical and physical processes. Despite these differences, OSAT and ISAM still provide useful apportionment data by identifying the geographical and temporal contributions of O 3 and its precursors. Both OSAT and ISAM attribute the majority of O 3 and NO x contributions to boundary, mobile, and biogenic sources, whereas the top three contributors to VOCs are found to be biogenic, boundary, and area sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

A NICER View of the Massive Pulsar PSR J0740+6620 Informed by Radio Timing and XMM-Newton Spectroscopy

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be-+12.390.981.30km and-+2.0720.0660.067Me respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is=-+TlogK5.99100.060.05([])for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters(within the prior support)and can thus be computed from the posterior samples.

Millisecond pulsars↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Global Character of the Flux of Downward Longwave Radiation

Four different types of estimates of the surface downwelling longwave radiative flux (DLR) are reviewed. One group of estimates synthesizes global cloud, aerosol, and other information in a radiation model that is used to calculate fluxes. Because these synthesis fluxes have been assessed against observations, the global-mean values of these fluxes are deemed to be the most credible of the four different categories reviewed. The global, annual mean DLR lies between approximately 344 and 350 W/sq m with an error of approximately +/-10 W/sq m that arises mostly from the uncertainty in atmospheric state that governs the estimation of the clear-sky emission. The authors conclude that the DLR derived from global climate models are biased low by approximately 10 W/sq m and even larger differences are found with respect to reanalysis climate data. The DLR inferred from a surface energy balance closure is also substantially smaller that the range found from synthesis products suggesting that current depictions of surface energy balance also require revision. The effect of clouds on the DLR, largely facilitated by the new cloud base information from the CloudSat radar, is estimated to lie in the range from 24 to 34 W/sq m for the global cloud radiative effect (all-sky minus clear-sky DLR). This effect is strongly modulated by the underlying water vapor that gives rise to a maximum sensitivity of the DLR to cloud occurring in the colder drier regions of the planet. The bottom of atmosphere (BOA) cloud effect directly contrast the effect of clouds on the top of atmosphere (TOA) fluxes that is maximum in regions of deepest and coldest clouds in the moist tropics.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Particle Transport and Impact in Transient, Multiphase Oxidizer-Rich Environments Using Computational Fluid Dynamics and Lagrangian Particle Tracking

Particle impacts from foreign object debris (FOD) in an oxidizer-rich environment have been shown to be a credible and significant risk for ignition and failure of components and vehicles. The risk of particle ignition is dependent on many factors, including particle impact velocity/energy and fluid composition (i.e. fluid phase, species presence, and state). Prediction of particle transport and particle impacts in relevant environments, including transient, multiphase flows, is important for assessing the risk and avoiding repeated expensive system level tests. The capability to model both the fluid dynamics and particle transport in complex three-dimensional geometries and multiphase environments has been developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in the propulsion fluid dynamic branch (ER42) by utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and Lagrangian particle tracking. Using CFD tools, including density-based Loci/CHEM with a cavitation model and pressure-based Loci/STREAM with a volume of fluids model, MSFC/ER42 has provided particle impact predictions to multiple projects for oxidizer compatibility assessments. Simulations of transient, multiphase environments such as liquid slugs flowing through tubing and cavitating flow in valves have been completed alongside one-way coupled Lagrangian particle tracking to predict particle impacts.

M.V. Fischels↗

DOE OSTI2020

Policy-Driven Sustainable Saline Drainage Disposal and Forage Production in the Western San Joaquin Valley of California

Environmental policies to address water quality impairments in the San Joaquin River of California have focused on the reduction of salinity and selenium-contaminated subsurface agricultural drainage loads from westside sources. On 31 December 2019, all of the agricultural drainage from a 44,000 ha subarea on the western side of the San Joaquin River basin was curtailed. This policy requires the on-site disposal of all of the agricultural drainage water in perpetuity, except during flooding events, when emergency drainage to the River is sanctioned. The reuse of this saline agricultural drainage water to irrigate forage crops, such as ‘Jose’ tall wheatgrass and alfalfa, in a 2428 ha reuse facility provides an economic return on this pollutant disposal option. Irrigation with brackish water requires careful management to prevent salt accumulation in the crop root zone, which can impact forage yields. The objective of this study was to optimize the sustainability of this reuse facility by maximizing the evaporation potential while achieving cost recovery. This was achieved by assessing the spatial and temporal distribution of the root zone salinity in selected fields of ‘Jose’ tall wheatgrass and alfalfa in the drainage reuse facility, some of which have been irrigated with brackish subsurface drainage water for over fifteen years. Electromagnetic soil surveys using an EM-38 instrument were used to measure the spatial variability of the salinity in the soil profile. The tall wheatgrass fields were irrigated with higher salinity water (1.2–9.3 dS m -1 ) compared to the fields of alfalfa (0.5–6.5 dS m -1 ). Correspondingly, the soil salinity in the tall wheatgrass fields was higher (12.5 dS m -1 –19.3 dS m -1 ) compared to the alfalfa fields (8.97 dS mm -1 –14.4 dS mm -1 ) for the years 2016 and 2017. Better leaching of salts was observed in the fields with a subsurface drainage system installed (13–1 and 13–2). The depth-averaged root zone salinity data sets are being used for the calibration of the transient hydro-salinity computer model CSUID-ID (a one-dimensional version of the Colorado State University Irrigation Drainage Model). This user-friendly decision support tool currently provides a useful framework for the data collection needed to make credible, field-scale salinity budgets. In time, it will provide guidance for appropriate leaching requirements and potential blending decisions for sustainable forage production. This paper shows the tie between environmental drainage policy and the role of local governance in the development of sustainable irrigation practices, and how well-directed collaborative field research can guide future resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Highlights of Space Weather Tools and Resources at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

In this presentation, we showcase a diverse array of tools and resources offered by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) to advance space weather research and support space weather services. Highlights include the Run-on-Request (RoR) and continuous run simulation services, the multi-purpose integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) system (has been used for space weather monitoring, anomaly resolution, and education), space weather event database DONKI, the validation tool called CAMEL, and various scoreboard activities serving as model validation efforts before a space weather event/condition occurs (this type of pre-event validation enhances the accuracy and credibility of space weather predictions from the community). In addition, CCMC’s is an active participant providing strong support for NASA’s Heliophysics Big Year activities. Above all, our team welcomes collaborations in the broad range of áreas. Through this presentation, we aim to inspire engagement and collaboration among latinoamerican scientific communities and CCMC.

Yihua Zheng↗

NASA NTRS2017

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model Status and Planned Updates

The Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) was originally developed in 2004 under funding from NASA's In Space Propulsion (ISP) Aerocapture Project to support mission studies at the planet. Many proposals, including NASA New Frontiers and Discovery, as well as other studies have used Venus-GRAM to design missions and assess system robustness. After Venus-GRAM's release in 2005, several missions to Venus have generated a wealth of additional atmospheric data, yet few model updates have been made to Venus-GRAM. This paper serves to address three areas: (1) to present the current status of Venus-GRAM, (2) to identify new sources of data and other upgrades that need to be incorporated to maintain Venus-GRAM credibility and (3) to identify additional Venus-GRAM options and features that could be included to increase its capability. This effort will de-pend on understanding the needs of the user community, obtaining new modeling data and establishing a dedicated funding source to support continual up-grades. This paper is intended to initiate discussion that can result in an upgraded and validated Venus-GRAM being available to future studies and NASA proposals.

Justh, H. L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model Status and Planned Updates

Justh, H. L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improvements to PVWatts for Fixed and One-Axis Tracking Systems

This work presents improvements to the widely used NREL PVWatts photovoltaic system energy model to improve modeling accuracy for typical fixed and one axis system designs. The aim is to calculate losses in the PV system assuming typical modern system design practices, while maintaining simplicity by keeping the required set of input parameters small. These improvements allow users to more credibly and quickly evaluate competing system designs in early stage feasibility. Common submodels for module cover, spectral, snow, tracker, transformer, plant controller, and self-shading losses, in addition to a bifacial gain option, are incorporated into the PVWatts model, and are shown to improve PVWatts' system performance prediction capabilities without major impact to ease of use. We anticipate including these improvements in a future release of NREL's open source PVWatts code, and some of the features may become available in the System Advisor Model (SAM) desktop software as well as the popular PVWatts web application.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Peak Flow Timing

Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) are unable to produce detailed runoff conditions at the basin scale. Assumptions are commonly made that dynamical downscaling can resolve this issue. However, given the large magnitude of the biases in downscaled GCMs, it is unclear whether such projections are credible. Here, we use an ensemble of dynamically downscaled GCMs to evaluate this question in the Sierra‐Cascade mountain range of the western US. Future projections across this region are characterized by earlier seasonal shifts in peak flow, but with substantial inter‐model uncertainty (−25 ± 34.75 days, 95% confidence interval (CI)). We apply the emergent constraint (EC) method for the first time to dynamically downscaled projections, leading to a 39% (−28.25 ± 20.75 days, 95% CI) uncertainty reduction in future peak flow timing. While the constrained results can differ from bias corrected projections, the EC is based on GCM biases in historical peak flow timing and has a strong physical underpinning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Application of Satellite Observations to Manage Natural Disasters in the Lake Victoria Basin

Lake Victoria, the second largest fresh water lake in the Eastern part of Africa is a vital natural resource for the economic well being and prosperity of over 30 million people located in riparian regions of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. It covers a large area of about 68,870 km2 and produces a GDP of about US $30 billion per year. The region is also very much prone to natural disasters such as severe floods during heavy precipitation periods in the Eastern part of Africa. In addition to floods, the precipitation also produces large infestations of mosquito larvae due to the standing water in many areas. This further causes multiple vector borne diseases such as Malaria, Rift Valley Fever and more. These problems are of serious concern and require active and aggressive surveillance and management to minimize the loss of human and animal lives and property damage. Satellite imagery and observations along with the in situ measurements provide a great tool to analyze and study this area and inform the policy makers to make calculated policy decisions which are more beneficial to the environment. Recently, NASA and USAID have joined forces with the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) located in Nairobi, Kenya to utilize multiple NASA sensors such as TRMM, SRTM and MODIS to develop flood potential maps for the Lake Victoria Basin. The idea is to generate a flood forecasts and "nowcasts" that can be sent to the disaster management organizations of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. Post flood event satellite imagery is becoming a common tool to assess the areas inundated by flooding. However, this work is unique undertaking by utilizing land imaging and atmospheric satellites to build credible flood potential maps. At same time, we are also studying the potential occurrence and spread of Rift Valley Fever disease based on the short term climate records and precipitation data. These activities require multi-nation coordination and agreements and multiple operational agencies within each respective country. It also requires credible in situ data such as precipitation, river flow rates and lake levels to further validate the global and regional Hood models and algorithms. This also requires a considerable amount of training and capacity building for the RCMRD experts who will help us validate the model results and eventually transition it for operational use. In a final analysis, Disaster management and humanitarian aid organizations need accurate and timely information for making decisions regarding deployment of relief teams and emergency supplies during major floods. Flood maps based on the use of satellite data have proven extremely valuable to such organizations for identifying the location, extent, and severity of these events. However, despite extraordinary efforts on the part of remote sensing data providers to rapidly deliver such maps, there is typically a delay of several days or even weeks from the on-set of flooding until such maps are available to the disaster management community. This paper summarizes efforts at NASA to address this problem through development of an integrated and automated process of a) flood forecasting b) flood detection, c) satellite data acquisition, d) rapid Hood mapping and distribution, and e) validation of Hood forecasting and detection products.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS2003

Rapid Prototyping of an Aircraft Model in an Object-Oriented Simulation

A team was created to participate in the Mars Scout Opportunity. Trade studies determined that an aircraft provided the best opportunity to complete the science objectives of the team. A high fidelity six degree of freedom flight simulation was required to provide credible evidence that the aircraft design fulfilled mission objectives and to support the aircraft design process by providing performance evaluations. The team created the simulation using the Langley Standard Real-Time Simulation in C++ (LaSRS++) application framework. A rapid prototyping approach was necessary because the team had only three months to both develop the aircraft simulation model and evaluate aircraft performance as the design and mission parameters matured. The design of LaSRS++ enabled rapid-prototyping in several ways. First, the framework allowed component models to be designed, implemented, unit-tested, and integrated quickly. Next, the framework provides a highly reusable infrastructure that allowed developers to maximize code reuse while concentrating on aircraft and mission specific features. Finally, the framework reduces risk by providing reusable components that allow developers to build a quality product with a compressed testing cycle that relies heavily on unit testing of new components.

Kenney, P. Sean↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the Nasa Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

medical equipment↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

risk assessment↗