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Evaluation of Fatigue Damage Accumulation Functions for Delamination Initiation and Propagation

The present report follows on the cohesive fatigue damage model methodology proposed in NASA-TP-2018-219838. In that report, an empirical function describing the incremental damage due to cyclic loading was used to calculate fatigue damage within a cohesive formulation. The form of the function was developed such that, when integrated at a constant stress amplitude from no damage to failure, it produces a life versus load response that is consistent with an S-N diagram. Therefore, the parameters of the damage model could be obtained by fitting the model predictions to an S-N diagram. The finite element analyses performed demonstrate that the cohesive fatigue accumulation function provides a link between the S-N diagram that describes crack initiation, and the Paris law that characterizes the rate of crack propagation. However, when the model was proposed, it was not known whether the form of the damage accumulation function associated with a desired S-N diagram is unique and, if not, if the link between S-N and the Paris law is unique and independent of the fatigue function selected. In the effort described herein, several alternative forms of the damage function that reproduce the desired features of S-N diagrams were found and evaluated. The effects of each of these functions on the predicted parameters of the Paris law and the propagation threshold are discussed. The results indicate that the predicted exponent m of the Paris law is indeed independent of the damage accumulation function. However, different functions predict different values for the pre-factor C of the Paris law. Therefore, the proper damage accumulation function must be selected by comparison with experiments. One of the new damage accumulation functions proposed herein was found to be particularly useful for analysis because of the ease with which the model parameters can be determined with a minimal amount of experimental information. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology and damage function was demonstrated by conducting analyses of a double cantilever beam test, a mixed-mode bending test, and a three-point bending test of a skin/doubler specimen. The results indicate that the same set of model parameters can provide accurate predictions of the rate of fatigue crack propagation for a variety of material interfaces, mode mixities, load levels, and stress ratios.

DKIN/Stiffener Debonding

Summary of Research Report

Ten papers, published in various publications, on buckling, and the effects of imperfections on various structures are presented. These papers are: (1) Buckling mode localization in elastic plates due to misplacement in the stiffner location; (2) On vibrational imperfection sensitivity on Augusti's model structure in the vicinity of a non-linear static state; (3) Imperfection sensitivity due to elastic moduli in the Roorda Koiter frame; (4) Buckling mode localization in a multi-span periodic structure with a disorder in a single span; (5) Prediction of natural frequency and buckling load variability due to uncertainty in material properties by convex modeling; (6) Derivation of multi-dimensional ellipsoidal convex model for experimental data; (7) Passive control of buckling deformation via Anderson localization phenomenon; (8)Effect of the thickness and initial im perfection on buckling on composite cylindrical shells: asymptotic analysis and numerical results by BOSOR4 and PANDA2; (9) Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis; (10) Buckling of structures with uncertain imperfections - Personal perspective.

Isaac Elishakoff

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning

Transient Studies of G-Induced Capillary Dryout and Rewet

A transient, one-dimensional numerical code is developed to model the liquid motion in an axial groove with square cross section. Axial variation in liquid level, shear stress and heat transfer between the groove wall and the liquid, evaporation and transient body forces are accounted for in the model. Dryout and rewet of the groove are allowed; the front location is determined numerically using conservation of mass and linear extrapolation. Several numerical test results are presented and discussed.

M K Reagan

Battery Cell Thermal Runaway Calorimeter

We currently have several methods for determining total energy output of an 18650 lithium ion cell. We do not, however, have a good method for determining the fraction of energy that dissipates via conduction through the cell can vs. the energy that is released in the form of ejecta. Knowledge of this fraction informs the design of our models, battery packs, and storage devices; (a) No longer need to assume cell stays together in modeling (b) Increase efficiency of TR mitigation (c) Shave off excess protection.

Darcy, Eric

List of Commercial and Advanced Developmental Niobium-Based Alloys of the Space Age

This report compiles a list of commercial and developmental niobium-based alloys developed during the Space Age (late 1950s through mid-1970s) for extreme-temperature applications, including rocket engine thrust chambers, hypersonic re-entry thermal protection systems, and space fission reactor loops. Niobium (Nb) was widely pursued because it provided the lowest density (~8.6 g/cc) among the primary refractory metals, a high melting temperature (~2470°C), exceptional low-temperature ductility, good formability, and compatibility with liquid alkali metals. An evaluation of physical metallurgy mechanisms, focusing on solid-solution strengthening via heavy refractory solutes (W, Mo, Ta), dual-purpose reactive solutes (Hf, Zr, Ti), and dispersion strengthening using carbides, nitrides, and oxides is presented. Additionally, the report compares Western and Soviet Union metallurgical approaches, explaining how supply chain factors and manufacturing infrastructure influenced element selection, interstitial chemistry, and alloy identification/naming conventions. Cataloging these historical alloy chemical compositions serves as a foundational reference for modern alloy additive manufacturing, thermodynamic CALPHAD modeling, and machine-learning discovery pipelines for next-generation extreme-environment niobium-based alloys.

Physical Metallurgy

High-Order Methods in NASA’s Next Generation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Tools

The missions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) routinely produce unique requirements and challenges for development and application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods. NASA presently embodies four distinct Mission Directorates: Aeronautics Research, Exploration Systems, Science, and Space Operations. These missions generate requirements for systems that operate in a wide variety of environments. They range from the high-speed flight of aerodynamically optimized vehicles operating in the earth’s atmosphere to spacecraft designed for missions that don’t favor aerodynamic optimization, some operating in the atmosphere of planets and planetary moons such as Mars and Venus or Saturn’s moon Titan. Systems supporting these vehicles, such as rocket and jet propulsion, reaction control systems, fluid and thermal transfer systems, etc. can also generate their own unique set of flow phenomena that challenge today’s CFD methodology. Through the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), NASA annually conducts state-of-the-discipline assessments in fifteen distinct engineering disciplines. These assessments are performed by the NASA Technical Fellows that lead Technical Discipline Teams (TDT) of recognized experts in these fifteen areas. In the Aerosciences discipline, three topics have been identified as the top challenges for the discipline: aero-plume interaction prediction, unsteady separated flows, and aerothermodynamic prediction. These challenge areas are defined by the Agency’s high-risk projects and problems on which the NESC is requested to perform independent testing, analysis, and assessments. When viewed as a whole, these tests, analyses, and assessments provide a clear view of the recurring technical challenges facing Agency engineers and researchers and can be used to guide future research and technology development. The present state-of-the-art in the application of CFD at NASA is the use of Reynolds-Averaged Navier- Stokes (RANS) solvers, primarily executed in a steady-state mode of operation. In isolated cases, Unsteady RANS (URANS) solvers have been employed when steady RANS solutions produce poorly converging or oscillating results or in cases, such as aeroelastic analysis, which require unsteady aerodynamic simulation. For most traditional external and internal aerodynamic flows, structured overset grids or unstructured grids are employed to minimize geometric modeling and grid generation times. Grid adaptation, primarily as a series of coarse-grain intermediate processing steps is also seeing use on particularly complex flow problems and configurations. In the case of aerothermodynamic flows, engineers have been forced to continue to employ structured grid techniques as the present unstructured grid methodology has proven inadequate in the prediction of surface heating. In the area of aero-plume interaction modeling, two-gas, frozen chemistry simulation is generally the state-of-the- art, with some production solvers capable of predicting flows with only a single gas component. Prediction of flows falling into the afore-mentioned top Aerosciences technical challenges have severely stressed the present state-of-the-art in CFD prediction and for some problems, such as unsteady separated flows and aero-plume interaction cases, engineers have begun employing Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Hybrid RANS/LES techniques. In some isolated aero-propulsion interaction cases, chemically reacting flow simulations have been applied. These methods are highly evolutionary and engineers have little experience in their application, so they cannot be heavily relied upon in today’s application environment. Therefore, this leads one to muse over which numerical technologies will be included in the CFD tools that will be employed 30 years in the future. This presentation will describe specific technical problems that have stressed NASA’s traditional CFD methods to their breaking point and will link these issues to the Agency’s top Aerosciences technical challenges. The discussion will then shift to the characteristics of future CFD solvers that will be required to attack these challenges and how these characteristics differ from the present state-of-the- art. High-order methods certainly appear to have a place in the development of future CFD tools and some of the physical characteristics of our most challenging problems suggest that high-order methods are the only way to effectively solve them. But there are some relatively severe implementation issues that face these methods, particularly in the area of general applicability and robust operation as an engineering tool. Desired characteristics of next-generation CFD solvers will be discussed and the author’s view of which emerging numerical technologies might be employed to address these attributes will also be presented

David M Schuster

RTE: A Computer Code for Rocket Thermal Evaluation

The numerical model for a rocket thermal analysis code (RTE) is discussed. RTE is a comprehensive thermal analysis code for thermal analysis of regeneratively cooled rocket engines. The input to the code consists of the composition of fuel/oxidant mixture and flow rates, chamber pressure, coolant temperature and pressure. dimensions of the engine, materials and the number of nodes in different parts of the engine. The code allows for temperature variation in axial, radial and circumferential directions. By implementing an iterative scheme, it provides nodal temperature distribution, rates of heat transfer, hot gas and coolant thermal and transport properties. The fuel/oxidant mixture ratio can be varied along the thrust chamber. This feature allows the user to incorporate a non-equilibrium model or an energy release model for the hot-gas-side. The user has the option of bypassing the hot-gas-side calculations and directly inputting the gas-side fluxes. This feature is used to link RTE to a boundary layer module for the hot-gas-side heat flux calculations.

Mohammad H N Naraghi

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka

Softening the Gap between Wöhler and Paris – New Approaches for Fatigue Analysis –

Fatigue analysis tools can vary across industries. For example, automotive engineers often use the Wöhler (S-N) approach to design for safe-life, while aerospace engineers prioritize damage tolerance and inspection intervals, relying instead on crack growth models such as Paris’ law. Although both approaches may deal with the control of cracks in similar materials, their analysis tools and material characterizations are fundamentally distinct. This divide mirrors the classic split between stress-based strength analysis and linear elastic fracture mechanics. However, modern nonlinear models that incorporate material softening, such as cohesive laws, blur this boundary and capture fracture behaviors across scales. This presentation describes the CF23 fatigue model, which uses cohesive softening to link S-N crack initiation with crack propagation rates. CF23 spans the full fatigue spectrum, from initial propagation transients to steady-state growth and threshold conditions, offering a unified framework that bridges Wöhler and Paris-based methodologies. Example applications include fatigue crack propagation transients in adhesive interfaces and skin/stiffener separation.

cohesive elements

Piloting Vertical Flight Aircraft: A Conference on Flying Qualities and Human Factors

This document contains papers from a specialists' meeting entitled "Piloting Vertical Flight Aircraft. A Conference on Flying Qualities and Human Factors." The conference was co-sponsored by the American Helicopter Society--San Francisco Bay Chapter, and the NASA Ames Research Center. It was held January 20-22, 1993 at the Sheraton Hotel Fisherman's Wharf, San Francisco, California. Vertical flight aircraft, including helicopters and a variety of Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) concepts, place unique requirements on human perception, control, and performance for the conduct of their design missions. The intent of this conference was to examine, for these vehicles, advances in: (1) design of flight control systems for ADS-33C standards; (2) assessment of human factors influences of cockpit displays and operational procedures; (3) development of VTOL design and operational criteria; and (4) development of theoretical methods or models for predicting pilot-vehicle performance and mission suitability. Recognizing that human capabilities and limitations form an integral aspect of the operations for these classes of vehicles, a secondary goal of the conference was to provide an initial venue for enhanced interaction between human factors and handling qualities specialists.

Helicopter

Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, -1 to -2% per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

trends

Thermal Cycling and Isothermal Deformation Response of Polycrystalline NiTi: Simulations vs. Experiment

A recent microstructure-based FEM model that couples crystal-based plasticity, the B2<-> MB190 phase transformation and anisotropic elasticity at the grain scale is calibrated to recent data for polycrystalline NiTi (49.9 at.% Ni). Inputs include anisotropic elastic properties, texture and differential scanning calorimetry data, as well as a subset of recent isothermal deformation and load-biased thermal cycling data. The model is assessed against additional experimental data. Several experimental trends are captured - in particular, the transformation strain during thermal cycling monotonically increases and reaches a peak with increasing bias stress. This is achieved, in part, by modifying the martensite hardening matrix proposed by Patoor et al. [Patoor E, Eberhardt A, Berveiller M. J Phys IV 1996;6:277]. Some experimental trends are underestimated - in particular, the ratcheting of macrostrain during thermal cycling. This may reflect a model limitation that transformation-plasticity coupling is captured on a coarse (grain) scale but not on a fine (martensitic plate) scale.

Phase Transformations

Chapter 19B - Antenna Radiation Patterns

Modern civil and military aircraft are equipped with a variety of communication devices, radio navigation equipment, and air traffic control systems. For all of these devices appropriate antennas must be available to transmit and receive the signals. As a result, as many as 30 antennas, and sometimes even more, are mounted around today's aircraft. For this reason, it is necessary to know the capabilities of the receiving/transmitting equipment on board. These capabilities are driven by the antenna characteristics. Therefore, coverage, shading, and beam pointing pattern data are necessary for optimum electronic coverage. The aircraft antenna has to convert the available power density of the electromagnetic field to an electric voltage at its connector. This voltage level must be sufficiently high to operate the connected equipment. The reciprocity principle states that it makes no difference if the antenna is receiving or transmitting. For the certification of the aircraft antennas it must be proven that the antennas are at least generating the minimum receiver input voltage which is required for each radio service. The prime condition is, of course, that the specified field power densities of the different radio navigation and communication services are available. An important property of a radio frequency link is the electro-magnetic field intensity at every point in space for a given output power of the antenna. As the propagation of radio frequency waves in free space is well known, the spatial distribution of the field intensity needs only be measured at one spatial sphere around the antenna. The information is usually given as distributions along the circumference of flat sections through this sphere: each of these is called an ARP. Several ARPs are usually required to describe the complete spatial antenna pattern of an antenna. In addition to mathematical modeling, measurements on sub-scale models, and static measurements on full size models or aircraft on the ground, dynamic measurements on aircraft in flight play the most important role in the aircraft antenna testing and certification. [19B-1] The shape of an ARP, for one given frequency, is determined by the shape of the antenna and the shape and material of the surface it is mounted on. As the directly transmitted waves interfere with waves reflected by the aircraft skin with its complex geometry, and the surface material parameters are only roughly known, it is not possible to predict the ARP with the required accuracy. In ground measurements the earth's surface also acts as a reflector thereby causing the ground ARP to be different from the in-flight ARP. As the in-flight ARP is the ARP we are actually interested in it becomes clear that it is necessary to conduct in-flight ARP measurements. The Flight Test Engineer must be aware of the needs of the specialists who are establishing the test program for measuring antenna patterns and radar cross sections. These tests will require special test equipment and dedicated flights to obtain the data that they require. This Section provides an introduction to the principles of determining antenna patterns and the flight techniques for determining both antenna patterns and radar cross section. Reference 19B-1 provides detailed information.

Helmut Bothe

A Study of the Aligned-Grid Retarding Potential Analyzer for Electric Propulsion Applications

During the development of energy analyzers for NASA’s Solar Electric Propulsion Plasma Diagnostics Package, detailed studies were performed to compare the benefits and drawbacks of different types of gridded potential analyzers. In particular, modeling and testing were performed on three types of retarding potential analyzer with aligned grids, and one type with unaligned grids. Additionally, a type of gridded energy analyzer was tested. Analyses of the model and test results showed that manufacturing an analyzer with aligned grids required greater precision and knowledge than other analyzers. A properly designed analyzer with aligned grids exhibited superior signal level, acceptance angle control, energy resolution, and compactness compared to an analyzer with unaligned grids. Additionally, the gridded energy analyzer was found to accept a broad range of incidence angles while having superior signal, energy resolution, and compactness compared to retarding potential analyzer with unaligned grid. This article describes the basic design principles deployed in the study, the associated modeling work, and the characterization tests that were performed. The article summarizes the benefits and drawbacks associated with each type of energy analyzer tested.

Electric Propulsion

Introduction to the Special Issue on Advanced Air Mobility Noise: Predictions, Measurements and Perception

This Special Issue focuses on noise associated with Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), an emerging class of predominantly electric distributed-propulsion aircraft designed for urban and regional transportation. As these vehicles move toward certification and deployment, noise has become a central challenge for regulatory approval and public acceptance, particularly due to operations in densely populated areas and at low altitudes. The 24 contributions in this issue address three key aspects of AAM noise: prediction, measurement, and human perception. Prediction studies span a wide range of modeling fidelities, from high-resolution simulations to improved semi-analytical approaches, and examine complex aeroacoustic mechanisms including rotor interactions, turbulence ingestion, and broadband noise generation. Measurement studies, largely at model scale, provide new insights into tonal and broadband noise characteristics across configurations and operating conditions, while supporting model validation. Perception-focused contributions investigate annoyance, sound quality metrics, and auralization, emphasizing the role of context and operational factors in shaping human response. Together, these works highlight the interdisciplinary nature of AAM noise research and the need for integrated approaches to enable quieter vehicle design.

Perception

Development of a One-Domain Volume-Averaged Navier–Stokes Solver

The interaction between a high-enthalpy flow and a thermal protection material is inherently multiscale and multiphysics. In conventional aerothermal analyses, the external flow and material response are generally modeled using separate computational domains coupled through boundary conditions at the material surface. Although this approach has supported many practical applications, it requires assumptions about the location and behavior of the interface and may become difficult to apply when material decomposition, internal reactions, and surface recession substantially alter the porous structure. This report presents the development of a one-domain formulation in which the free-fluid and porous-material regions are represented within a single computational domain. The formulation is based on the volume-averaged Navier–Stokes (VANS) equations, derived from the governing equations for reacting, compressible flow and condensed material. Volume averaging transfers the influence of the unresolved material microstructure to the macroscale equations through effective transport properties, interfacial source terms, and dispersion fluxes. Particular attention is given to regions in which porosity and permeability vary rapidly, including the diffuse transition between a porous material and the surrounding fluid. The resulting equations are implemented in the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO). The report describes the pressure–velocity coupling strategy used by the solver, examines spatial filtering techniques for deriving effective properties, and evaluates the influence of a smoothly varying interface permeability. Numerical demonstrations include canonical porous-flow configurations, a flow-tube configuration representative of FiberForm® permeability experiments, and the oxidation of a porous carbon material. The purpose of this work is to establish a mathematical and computational foundation for a unified treatment of flow and thermal protection material response. The present formulation is intended to support the progressive inclusion of additional physical processes, including multicomponent transport, finite-rate gas–surface chemistry, pyrolysis, internal oxidation, and material recession. It also provides a framework for connecting pore-scale simulations and microstructural characterization with macroscale aerothermal-response calculations. This report is intended for researchers and engineers working in computational fluid dynamics, porous-media transport, material response, and thermal protection system modeling. It documents both the theoretical development and the initial numerical assessment of the one-domain approach, while identifying the closure of effective and dispersion terms as an important subject for continued investigation.

Ablation

An Overview of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulated Cloud Ice, Radiation Fields, Surface Wind Stress, Sea Surface Temperatures and Precipitation over Tropical and Subtropical Oceans

The potential links between ice water path (IWP), radiation, circulation, sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans resulting from the falling ice radiative effects (FIREs) are examined from present day model outputs of CMIP5 and CMIP6. The latter is divided into two subsets with (SON6) and without FIREs (NOS6) as more models with FIREs are included in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. Improvement in floating cloud ice (~20 g m-2) is noticeable over convective regions in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5. The inclusion of FIREs in SON6 subset may contribute to reduce biases of overestimated outgoing longwave radiation and downward surface shortwave and overestimated reflected shortwave at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by magnitudes of 4?8 W m-2 over convective regions against CERES, compared to NOS6 subset. The reduced biases in radiative fluxes in convective regions stabilize the atmosphere and lead to circulation, SST, cloud and precipitation changes over the trade-wind regions, as seen from improved radiative fluxes (4?15 W m-2), surface wind stress biases, SST (0.2?0.8 K) and precipitation (1 mm day-1) biases. The significant improvement from NOS6 to SON6 leads to improved multi-model means for CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 for radiation fields over the trade wind regions but the degradation over convective zones is attributed to NOS6 subset. The results suggest that other sources of uncertainty and deficiencies in climate models may play significant roles for reducing discrepancies although FIREs, via radiation-circulation coupling, may be one of the factors that help to reduce regional biases.

Jui-Lin F Li