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At least 289 records · Page 16

Probability of Failure and Risk Assessment of Propulsion Structural Components

Due to increasing need to account for the uncertainties in material properties, loading conditions, or geometries, a methodology was developed to determine structural reliability and the assess the risk associated with it. The methodology consists of a probabilistic structural analysis by a probabilistic finite element computer code Nonlinear Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) and a generic probabilistic material properties model. The methodology is versatile and is equally applicable to high and cryogenic temperature structures. Results obtained demonstrate that the whole issue of structural reliability and risk can be formally evaluated using the methodology developed which is inclusive of uncertainties in material properties, structural parameters and loading conditions. The methodology is described in some detail with illustrative examples.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Perception of interstellar structure - Facing complexity

Some orthodox notions concerning the structure and evolution of star-forming regions are challenged; it is proposed that they arise largely by a dual process in which conceptual models are fashioned after categories which are in great part reflections of observational limitations, and the models are projected onto interpretations of data. Several examples are discussed. The need for internal support of molecular clouds is questioned. It is suggested that the inverse density-size relation often claimed for clouds and accounted for by several theoretical models is an artifact caused by limited dynamic range column density detectability, selection bias, distance uncertainties, and internal density gradients, and is contradicted by several unbiased surveys. Column density structures mapped with a large spatial and column density dynamic range are found to be dominated by irregular, connected, and nested forms on all sides. These features and a technique for the quantification of the complex structure are illustrated with a densely-sampled column density image of the Taurus region constructed from IRAS data.

Scalo, John↗

A probabilistic approach to the evaluation of fatigue damage in a space propulsion system injector element

The fatigue damage of a space propulsion system component is computed using probabilistic structural analysis methods. The analysis takes into account the variations in static and dynamic loads, the uncertainty in structural damping, and the scatter in material fatigue resistance. The key elements of the probabilistic approach include: (1) a numerical engine model for describing the global component interface loads consistent with engine balance, (2) models for computing the local mode boundary conditions on the component, (3) a static structural analysis model that captures the strains at a damage critical location as a function of engine performance variables, (4) a finite element model for assessment of the random amplitude stress response due to random base and pressure excitations with uncertain power and correlation length, and (5) advanced first order reliability methods for computing the probabilities associated with the fatigue damage.

Rajagopal, K. R.↗

Exploring the Production of NOx by Lightning and Its Impact on Tropospheric Ozone

Our quantitative understanding of free tropospheric (FT) chemistry is quite poor. State-of-the-art regional air quality models (e.g., US EPA's CMAQ) perform very poorly in simulating FT chemistry, with Uniform ozone around 70 ppb throughout the FT in summer, while ozonesonde data show much higher levels of ozone and much spatial-temporal structure. Such models completely neglect lightning-NOx (LNOx) emissions (the most significant source of NOx in the FT), and also contain large uncertainties in the specifications of intercontinental transport, stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and PBLFT exchange (PFTE). Global air chemistry models include LNOx, but in very crude fashion, with the frequency and distribution of lightning being based on modeled cloud parameters (hence large uncertainty), lightning energetics being assumed to be constant for all flashes (literature value, while in reality there is at least a two-orders of magnitude variability from flash-to-flash), and the production of NOx in the surrounding heated air, per Joule of heating, being assumed to be constant also (literature value, while in fact it is a non-linear function of the dissipated heat and local air density, p). This situation is commonly blamed on paucity of pertinent observational data, but for the USA, there is now a wealth of surface- and satellite-based data of lightning available to permit much improved observation-based estimation of LNOx emissions. In the FT, such NOx has a long residence time, and also the ozone production efficiency from NOx there is considerably higher than in the PBL. It is, therefore, of critical importance in FT chemistry. This paper will describe the approach and data products of an ongoing NSSTC project aimed at a much-improved quantification of not only LNOx production on the scale of continental USA based on local and regional lightning observations, but also of intercontinental transport, STE and PFTE, all in upgraded simulations of tropospheric transport and chemistry. In our approach for LNOx, (a) we utilize continuous observed lightning information from the NLDN ground network and from satellite imagers (OTD and LIS) to quantify lightning frequency and distribution at the spatial-temporal scales of models such as CMAQ; (b) we develop new methodologies to quantify flash-specific lightning energy dissipation as heat (epsilon) using data from the research-grade lightning measurement facility at NASA-KSC, and to parameterize epsilon based on regional lightning monitoring data (ground- and satellite-based); and, (c) we develop a new parameterization of NOx production as a function of epsilon and rho. Based on such observation-based information, we are working to develop a gridded, episodic LNOx emissions inventory for the USA for use in models like CMAQ. We are also developing approaches for global(MOZART)- regional(CMAQ) chemistry coupling to improve intercontinental transport and STE. Finally, we are developing new methodologies for assimilation of satellite-observed (GOES) clouds into meteorological modeling (MM5), to improve PFTE and to optimize co-location of cloud convection and observed lightning. We will incorporate these improvements in CMAQ simulations over the USA to better understand FT processes and chemistry, and its impact on ground-level ozone.

Gillani, Noor↗

NASA Models of Space Radiation Induced Cancer, Circulatory Disease, and Central Nervous System Effects

The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Probability of failure and risk assessment of propulsion structural components

Because of the increasing need to account for the uncertainties in material properties, loading conditions, geometry, etc., a methodology was developed to determine structural reliability and to assess the associated risk. The methodology consists of a probabilistic structural analysis by a probabilistic finite element computer code, numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress (NESSUS), and a generic probabilistic material property model. The methodology is versatile and is equally applicable to structures operating at high and cryogenic temperature environments. Results obtained demonstrate that the issues of structural reliability and risk can be formally evaluated by using the methodology developed which is inclusive of the uncertainties in material properties, structural parameters, and loading conditions. The methodology is described in some detail with illustrative examples.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbon fluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle, we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduce seasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to both total productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models represent phenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in dryland ecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in both moisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure of existing phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized model parameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, we modified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation of grass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance were associated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to better capture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R(exp 2) = 0.75) and gross primary productivity (R(exp 2) = 0.84), though its ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new model also resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findings demonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecast climate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model↗

Modeling and parameter uncertainties for aircraft flight control system design

As aircraft designs trend toward further applications of control-configured vehicle concepts, aircraft control systems increasingly rely on stability augmentation to obtain normal flying qualities and reasonable structural margins. Although the control system designer would choose to have a perfect dynamic description of the vehicle, he knows that a level of uncertainty of plant dynamics will exist. This paper gives typical values of plant uncertainties for some recent aircraft design and development programs. Histories of pertinent aerodynamic, inertial, and structural parameters from program initiation to aircraft certification are given. These data can be used as typical of future vehicles so that control system design concepts can be evaluated with due consideration to their sensitivity to uncertainties in plant dynamics.

Rickard, W. W.↗

Numerical Experimentation with Maximum Likelihood Identification in Static Distributed Systems

Many important issues in the control of large space structures are intimately related to the fundamental problem of parameter identification. One might also ask how well this identification process can be carried out in the presence of noisy data since no sensor system is perfect. With these considerations in mind the algorithms herein are designed to treat both the case of uncertainties in the modeling and uncertainties in the data. The analytical aspects of maximum likelihood identification are considered in some detail in another paper. The questions relevant to the implementation of these schemes are dealt with, particularly as they apply to models of large space structures. The emphasis is on the influence of the infinite dimensional character of the problem on finite dimensional implementations of the algorithms. Those areas of current and future analysis are highlighted which indicate the interplay between error analysis and possible truncations of the state and parameter spaces.

Scheid, R. E., Jr.↗

Controls Modeling Approach for Deployment of a Large Thin Structure for Solar Sails

One of the principal challenges with solar sails is to safely deploy the large sail structures while simultaneously maintaining attitude control. This challenge includes changing moments and products of inertia along with large sail shape uncertainties as it transitions from stowed to the fully deployed shape at the end of the deployment. With these changes, the control system must manage any potential momentum buildup and keep the pointing within mission requirements. The attitude determination and control system team for Solar Cruiser, a 1600 square meter solar sail project out of Marshall Space Flight Center, approached this problem by modeling the nominal moments and products of inertia for different stages of deployment from 10% to 100% in 10% increments. At each step, the inertias were used to generate tuned PID gains, which were used as part of a nominal deployment analysis to prevent unintentional slewing and tumbling. The team created and analyzed off nominal cases, where the moments of inertia and products were changed to induce uncertainties for the control system to manage during deployment. These cases helped verify that the control system can handle off-nominal deployments as well as any uncertainties occurring during deployment of the space sail system. This paper will show this method can be successfully used for modeling solar sail deployments as part of the attitude control system.

Solar Sails↗

Controls Modeling Approach for Deployment of a Large Thin Structures for Solar Sails

One of the principal challenges with solar sails is to safely deploy the large sail structures while simultaneously maintaining attitude control. This challenge includes changing moments and products of inertia along with large sail shape uncertainties as it transitions from stowed to the fully deployed shape at the end of the deployment. With these changes, the control system must manage any potential momentum buildup and keep the pointing within mission requirements. The attitude determination and control system team for Solar Cruiser, a 1600 square meter solar sail project out of Marshall Space Flight Center, approached this problem by modeling the nominal moments and products of inertia for different stages of deployment from 10% to 100% in 10% increments. At each step, the inertias were used to generate tuned PID gains, which were used as part of a nominal deployment analysis to prevent unintentional slewing and tumbling. The team created and analyzed off nominal cases, where the moments of inertia and products were changed to induce uncertainties for the control system to manage during deployment. These cases helped verify that the control system can handle off-nominal deployments as well as any uncertainties occurring during deployment of the space sail system. This paper will show this method can be successfully used for modeling solar sail deployments as part of the attitude control system.

Solar Sails↗

Control and Simulation of Space-Station Vibrations

Adaptive control system reduces effects of model uncertainties. Report outlines method for finite-element dynamic analysis of space station. Purpose is to determine periods and modes of oscillation of structure and to analyze effect of proposed adaptive control system to damp out unwanted vibrations. With simplifications proposed, finite-element simulations performed during dynamic event, like docking of Space Shuttle, and used to control vibration-damping actuators.

Ih, Che-Hang Charles↗

Standard solar model. II - g-modes

The paper presents the g-mode oscillation for a set of modern solar models. Each solar model is based on a single modification or improvement to the physics of a reference solar model. Improvements were made to the nuclear reaction rates, the equation of state, the opacities, and the treatment of the atmosphere. The error in the predicted g-mode periods associated with the uncertainties in the model physics is predicted and the specific sensitivities of the g-mode periods and their period spacings to the different model structures are described. In addition, these models are compared to a sample of published observations. A remarkably good agreement is found between the 'best' solar model and the observations of Hill and Gu (1990).

Guenther, D. B.↗

Structural Analysis of an Inflation-Deployed Solar Sail With Experimental Validation

Under the direction of the NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Office, the team of L Garde, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Ball Aerospace, and NASA Langley Research Center has been developing a scalable solar sail configuration to address NASA s future space propulsion needs. Prior to a flight experiment of a full-scale solar sail, a comprehensive phased test plan is currently being implemented to advance the technology readiness level of the solar sail design. These tests consist of solar sail component, subsystem, and sub-scale system ground tests that simulate the vacuum and thermal conditions of the space environment. Recently, two solar sail test articles, a 7.4-m beam assembly subsystem test article and a 10-m four-quadrant solar sail system test article, were tested in vacuum conditions with a gravity-offload system to mitigate the effects of gravity. This paper presents the structural analyses simulating the ground tests and the correlation of the analyses with the test results. For programmatic risk reduction, a two-prong analysis approach was undertaken in which two separate teams independently developed computational models of the solar sail test articles using the finite element analysis software packages: NEiNastran and ABAQUS. This paper compares the pre-test and post-test analysis predictions from both software packages with the test data including load-deflection curves from static load tests, and vibration frequencies and mode shapes from structural dynamics tests. The analysis predictions were in reasonable agreement with the test data. Factors that precluded better correlation of the analyses and the tests were uncertainties in the material properties, test conditions, and modeling assumptions used in the analyses.

Sleight, David W.↗

Probabilistic Simulation of the Human Factor in Structural Reliability

The formal approach described herein computationally simulates the probable ranges of uncertainties for the human factor in probabilistic assessments of structural reliability. Human factors such as marital status, professional status, home life, job satisfaction, work load, and health are studied by using a multifactor interaction equation (MFIE) model to demonstrate the approach. Parametric studies in conjunction with judgment are used to select reasonable values for the participating factors (primitive variables). Subsequently performed probabilistic sensitivity studies assess the suitability of the MFIE as well as the validity of the whole approach. Results show that uncertainties range from 5 to 30 percent for the most optimistic case, assuming 100 percent for no error (perfect performance).

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Mapping of CO2 at High Spatiotemporal Resolution using Satellite Observations: Global distributions from OCO-2

Satellite observations of CO2 offer new opportunities to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Using such observations to infer global maps of atmospheric CO2 and their associated uncertainties can provide key information about the distribution and dynamic behavior of CO2, through comparison to atmospheric CO2 distributions predicted from biospheric, oceanic, or fossil fuel flux emissions estimates coupled with atmospheric transport models. Ideally, these maps should be at temporal resolutions that are short enough to represent and capture the synoptic dynamics of atmospheric CO2. This study presents a geostatistical method that accomplishes this goal. The method can extract information about the spatial covariance structure of the CO2 field from the available CO2 retrievals, yields full coverage (Level 3) maps at high spatial resolutions, and provides estimates of the uncertainties associated with these maps. The method does not require information about CO2 fluxes or atmospheric transport, such that the Level 3 maps are informed entirely by available retrievals. The approach is assessed by investigating its performance using synthetic OCO-2 data generated from the PCTM/ GEOS-4/CASA-GFED model, for time periods ranging from 1 to 16 days and a target spatial resolution of 1deg latitude x 1.25deg longitude. Results show that global CO2 fields from OCO-2 observations can be predicted well at surprisingly high temporal resolutions. Even one-day Level 3 maps reproduce the large-scale features of the atmospheric CO2 distribution, and yield realistic uncertainty bounds. Temporal resolutions of two to four days result in the best performance for a wide range of investigated scenarios, providing maps at an order of magnitude higher temporal resolution relative to the monthly or seasonal Level 3 maps typically reported in the literature.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗

Integrated Process-Structure-Property Simulations for Additive Manufacturing Using the Open-Source Materialite Package

The microstructure and properties of additively manufactured (AM) metals are strongly dependent on process conditions. Therefore, process-structure-property (PSP) simulations are a useful tool for exploring process parameter space, studying process variations, and quantifying uncertainty in material properties. However, integrating process-structure and structure-property simulations often involves connecting multiple software packages. Each package may use unique data structures and require substantial domain knowledge. This presentation demonstrates PSP simulation capabilities of Materialite, an open-source package developed at NASA Langley Research Center. Materialite simplifies model linkages by using a common data structure and model interface, enabling straightforward simulation across a PSP model chain. Physics-based models, including kinetic Monte Carlo and crystal plasticity, are implemented within the package. The model interface is also intended to simplify implementation of new models and enable integration with external simulation tools. Example use cases include uncertainty quantification with PSP models and GPU-accelerated powder bed fusion AM process models.

additive manufacturing↗

Computation of LFT Uncertainty Bounds with Repeated Parametric Uncertainties

A new methodology in which linear fractional transformation uncertainty bounds are directly constructed for use in robust control design and analysis is proposed. Existence conditions for model validating solutions with or without repeated scalar uncertainty are given. The approach is based on minimax formulation to deal with multiple non-repeated structured uncertainty components subject to fixed levels of repeated scalar uncertainties. Input directional dependence and variations with different experiments are addressed by maximizing uncertainty levels over multiple experimental data sets. Preliminary results show that reasonable uncertainty bounds on structured non-repeated uncertainties can be identified directly from measurement data by assuming reasonable levels of repeated scalar uncertainties.

Lim, K. B.↗