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Examination of returned solar-max surfaces for impacting orbital debris and meteoroids

Previous theoretical studies predicted that in certain regions of earth orbit, the man-made earth orbiting debris environment will soon exceed the interplanetary meteoroid environment for sizes smaller than 1 cm. The surfaces returned from the repaired Solar Max Mission (SMM) by STS 41-C on April 12, 1984, offered an excellent opportunity to examine both the debris and meteoroid environments. To date, approximately 0.7 sq. met. of the thermal insulation and 0.05 sq. met of the aluminum louvers have been mapped by optical microscope for crater diameters larger than 40 microns. Craters larger in diameter than about 100 microns found on the initial 75 micron thick Kapton first sheet on the MEB (Main Electronics Box) blanket are actually holes and constitute perforations through that blanket. The following populations have been found to date in impact sites on these blankets: (1) meteoritic material; (2) thermal paint particles; (3) aluminum droplets; and (4) waste particles.

Kessler, D. J.↗

Bounding the Risk of Crew Loss Following Orbital Debris Penetration of the International Space Station at Assembly Stages 1J and 1E

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been sufficiently large to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight lJ, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight lE, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures and configurations that reduce R at these stages.

Evans, S.↗

Bounding the risk of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station at assembly stages 1J and 1E

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been large enough to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight 1J, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight 1E, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte-Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members in the event of a penetration, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures could that reduce R at these stages. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Models, Theoretical↗

NASA's Orbital Debris Optical and IR Ground-Based Observing Program Utilizing the MCAT, UKIRT, and Magellan Telescopes

Characterizing debris in Earth-orbit has become increasingly important as the population growth rises steadily, posing greater and greater threats to active satellites with each passing year. Currently, the Joint Space Operations is tracking over 23,000 pieces of debris, ranging in size from 1-meter and larger in geosychronous orbits (GEO) to 10-cm and larger at low-Earth orbits (LEO). Model estimates suggest that there may be more than 500,000 pieces of spacecraft debris larger than 1 cm currently in orbit around the Earth. With such a small fraction of the total population being tracked, and new break-ups occurring in LEO, GEO, and Geo Transfer Orbits, new assets, techniques, and approaches for characterizing this debris are needed. With this in mind, NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office has actively tasked a suite of telescopes around the world. In 2015, the newly-built 1.3m optical Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) came on-line on Ascension Island in the South Atlantic Ocean and is currently in its commissioning phase. MCAT is designed to track Earth-orbiting objects above 200km, conduct surveys at GEO, and work in tandem with a newly-installed Raven-class commercial-off-the-shelf system, a 0.4-meter telescope co-located on Ascension with a field-of-view similar to MCAT's and research-grade instrumentation designed to complement MCAT for observations taken either simultaneously or in tandem. The 3.8m infrared UKIRT telescope on Mauna Kea, Hawaii, has been heavily tasked throughout 2015 and into 2016, collecting data on individual targets as well as in survey modes to study both the general GEO population as well as an individual break-up event of a BRIZ-M Rocket body that occurred in January 2016. Data collected include photometry and spectroscopy in the near-Infrared (0.85-2.5 m) and the mid-infrared (8-16 m). Finally, the 6.5-m Baade Magellan telescope at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile was used to collect optical photometric survey data in October 2015 of two GEO Titan breakups, focusing on locations of possible debris concentrations as indicated by the NASA standard break-up model.

Lederer, Susan↗

Orbital debris environment for spacecraft in low earth orbit

Modeling and measurement results used in formulating an environment model that can be used for the engineering design of spacecraft are reviewed. Earth-based and space-based sensors are analyzed and it is noted that the effects of satellite breakups can be modeled to predict a uncatalogued population, if the nature of the breakup is understood. It is observed that the telescopic data indicate that the current model is too low for sizes slightly larger than 10 cm, and may be too low for sizes between 2 cm and 10 cm, while there is an uncertainty in the current development, especially for sizes smaller than 10 cm, and at altitudes different from 500 km. Projections for the catastrophic collision rate for different growth conditions are made, emphasizing that the rate of growth of fragments will be twice the rate of intact objects.

Kessler, Donald J.↗

Origin of orbital debris impacts on LDEF's trailing surfaces

A model was developed to determine the origin of orbital impacts measured on the training surfaces of LDEF. The model calculates the expected debris impact crater distribution around LDEF as a function of debris orbital parameters. The results show that only highly elliptical, low inclination orbits could be responsible for these impacts. The most common objects left in this type of orbit are orbital transfer stages used by the U.S. and ESA to place payloads into geosynchronous orbit. Objects in this type of orbit are difficult to catalog by the U.S. Space Command; consequently there are independent reasons to believe that the catalog does not adequately represent this population. This analysis concludes that the relative number of cataloged objects with highly elliptical, low inclination orbits must be increased by a factor of 20 to be consistent with the LDEF data.

Kessler, Donald J.↗

The long-term effects of the micrometeoroid and orbital debris environments on materials used in space

The long-term effects of the orbital debris and micrometeoroid environments on materials that are current candidates for use on space vehicles are discussed. In addition, the limits of laboratory testing to determine these effects are defined and the need for space-based data is delineated. The impact effects discussed are divided into primary and secondary surfaces. Primary surfaces are those that are subject to erosion, pitting, the degradation and delamination of optical coatings, perforation of atomic oxygen erosion barriers, vapor coating of optics and the production of secondary ejecta particles. Secondary surfaces are those that are affected by the result of the perforation of primary surfaces, for example, vapor deposition on electronic components and other sensitive equipment, and the production of fragments with damage potential to internal pressurized elements. The material properties and applications that are required to prevent or lessen the effects described, are defined.

Cour-Palais, Burton G.↗

U.S. international initiatives in orbital debris

The paper discusses NASA's efforts in international cooperation in the field of orbital debris research, primarily since 1989. Cooperative activities and coordination with ESA, Germany, France, Russia, Japan, and China are described. Plans for future directions in cooperation are outlined.

Jacobs, Daniel V.↗

Orbiting Debris: a Space Environmental Problem. Background Paper

Man-made debris, now circulating in a multitude of orbits about Earth as the result of the exploration and use of the space environment, poses a growing hazard to future space operations. The 6,000 or so debris objects large enough to be cataloged by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network are only a small percentage of the total debris capable of damaging spacecraft. Unless nations reduce the amount of orbital debris they produce, future space activities could suffer loss of capability, destruction of spacecraft, and perhaps even loss of life as a result of collisions between spacecraft and debris. Better understanding of the extent and character of "space junk" will be crucial for planning future near-Earth missions, especially those projects involving humans in space. This OTA background paper summarizes the current state of knowledge about the causes and distribution of orbiting debris, and examines R&D needs for reducing the problem. As this background paper notes, addressing the problem will require the involvement of all nations active in space. The United States has taken the lead to increase international understanding of the issue but much work lies ahead. In undertaking this background paper, OTA sought the contributions of a broad spectrum of knowledgeable individuals and organizations. Some provided information, others reviewed drafts. OTA gratefully acknowledges their contributions of time and intellectual effort. As with all OTA studies, the content of this background paper is the sole responsibility .of the Office of Technology Assessment and does not necessarily represent the views of our advisors or reviewers.

Lionel S. Johns↗

Implication of orbital debris for Space Station design

A large increase in the debris environment combined with the existing space station program requirements results in larger design debris particle sizes being used for designing the Space Station meteoroid and debris protection system. Equipment affecting survivability of the Space Station and its crew is identified and the amount of protection needed is assessed. A combination of passive shielding and active techniques is considered along with the requirements for developing easily augmentable shielding and the use of new shielding materials to reduce launch weight and volume. In addition to passive protection development, collision avoidance procedures moving the station out of the path of very large debris particles must be developed. Innovative solutions, including on-orbit debris detection and tracking devices, active debris interceptors, and 'storm cellars' are addressed.

Nieder, Raymond L.↗

Determination of the area and mass distribution of orbital debris fragments

A technique is described to estimate the area-to-mass ratio of debris fragments using orbital fragments obtained by radar. The area-to-mass ratio of about 2600 fragments arising from the breakup of 24 artificial satellites was determined; an analysis of the data on about 200 objects with known mass, size, and shape has been made, and a calibration of the observed radar cross-section (RCS) to the effective area of these objects has provided a method to estimate the effective area of debris fragments. From the knowledge of the effective area and the estimated area-to-mass ratio, the mass and area distribution of each of the known breakup has been obtained. As a function of time, the orbital elements can be used to invert any propagation algorithm to yield the area-to-mass ratio of an orbiting object.

Badhwar, Gautam D.↗

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Testing, Ballistic Limit Equation Definition and Risk Assessment of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (XEMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure due to an impact from a micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. As NASA prepares to return astronauts to the moon with the Artemis program, the next generation of spacesuit is in development to support future extravehicular activities (EVAs). An MMOD impact to the spacesuit is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching an airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. The exploration extravehicular mobility unit (xEMU) must meet MMOD requirements for multiple environments including those in low earth orbit (LEO) as well as the meteoroid and secondary lunar regolith ejecta environments found on the lunar surface. The subject of this paper is an MMOD risk assessment of the internal xEMU configuration design developed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel. Assessment of the MMOD risk for an 8-hour, 2-person EVA in both LEO and on the lunar surface showed that the xEMU spacesuit meets the program technical requirement of 1 in 2500 failure odds.

Micrometeoroid↗

NASA's Orbital Debris Optical Program: ES-MCAT Updated and Upgraded

The 1.3m ES-MCAT telescope (or MCAT for short) now has a proven capability for observing objects from Low- Earth Orbit (LEO) out to Geosynchronous (GEO) orbit, and the ability to run all systems autonomously. A GEO survey, the initial focus for MCAT, will commence in late 2019 to map out the current state of the GEO population as input for the ORbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 4.x). This survey will statistically sample the GEO belt (0 to ~15 deg orbital inclinations) to detect both known and unknown targets. If a break-up occurs, additional surveys of the break-up field can be followed for discovery and investigations of daughter debris fragments from the parent satellite. Discovery can be accomplished by tracking orbits near to and including the parent object’s orbit. Targeted observations of debris can be taken with a suite of broadband filters for characterizing individual objects by ratetracking their known or calculated orbital elements (Two-Line Element sets, TLEs). Several modifications and upgrades have been made to the instrumentation and systems originally installed in 2015 and are reported here. In 2018, MCAT’s primary mirror was recoated with a high-end protected, enhanced silver by the ZeCoat Corporation. The CCD chip was replaced in the Spectral Instruments camera with a broad-band antireflective coated chip. The automated weather systems have been modified from the original system, removing some weather sensors and installing replacements that are better suited to Ascension’s weather and environment. A new 2.5-m ObservaDome replaced the Astrohaven dome on the nearby tower platform that will house an auxiliary 0.4-meter telescope. Finally, in 2019, the Observatory Control System was upgraded to 2.0 which includes additional flexibility for automating data collection and reduction. With these updates completed, MCAT is now well on track to reach Full Operational Capability (FOC) in 2019 for its survey, rate-track, and TLE tracking capabilities.

Lederer, S. M.↗

Orbital Debris and Future Environment Remediation

This slide presentation is an overview of the historical and current orbital debris environment. Included is information about: Projected growth of the future debris population, The need for active debris removal (ADR), A grand challenge for the 21st century and The forward path

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

The Application of Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning to Visually Identify Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impacts

Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have made Machine Learning (ML) techniques readily available for practical applications while using a fraction of time that was previously required. In particular, the use of Deep Learning (DL) algorithms has advanced the field of image and pattern recognition. With the use of Deep Learning algorithms, Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris(MMOD) penetrations can be identified with high accuracy and give possibilities to new understandings of hypervelocity impacts.

Deep Learning↗

Simulation of the effects of the orbital debris environment on spacecraft

A remedy for the lack of a technique for testing the effects of orbital debris impacts has been sought along two paths at Boeing and elsewhere, firstly through the development of new launcher techniques capable of impact velocities between 8 and 16 km/s and secondly through the development of similitude techniques for modeling 8 to 16 km/s impacts using the present capabilities of projectile launchers. These two approaches are briefly discussed.

Bjorkman, Michael D.↗

Extravehicular Mobility Unit Penetration Probability from Micrometeoroids and Orbital Debris: Revised Analytical Model and Potential Space Suit Improvements

The NASA Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) micrometeoroid and orbital debris protection ability has recently been assessed against an updated, higher threat space environment model. The new environment was analyzed in conjunction with a revised EMU solid model using a NASA computer code. Results showed that the EMU exceeds the required mathematical Probability of having No Penetrations (PNP) of any suit pressure bladder over the remaining life of the program (2,700 projected hours of 2 person spacewalks). The success probability was calculated to be 0.94, versus a requirement of >0.91, for the current spacesuit s outer protective garment. In parallel to the probability assessment, potential improvements to the current spacesuit s outer protective garment were built and impact tested. A NASA light gas gun was used to launch projectiles at test items, at speeds of approximately 7 km per second. Test results showed that substantial garment improvements could be made, with mild material enhancements and moderate assembly development. The spacesuit s PNP would improve marginally with the tested enhancements, if they were available for immediate incorporation. This paper discusses the results of the model assessment process and test program. These findings add confidence to the continued use of the existing NASA EMU during International Space Station (ISS) assembly and Shuttle Operations. They provide a viable avenue for improved hypervelocity impact protection for the EMU, or for future space suits.

Chase, Thomas D.↗