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Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) ground data system - The first operational data system for the Mission to Planet Earth

The initiation of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Mission to Planet Earth was realized with the activation of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (LIARS) in mid-September 1991 following deployment from the Shuttle Transport System (STS) - 48. The UARS provides the first comprehensive study of the chemistry and dynamics of the upper atmosphere. The UARS ground data system provides the capabilities required to support upper atmospheric studies in a timely and flexible manner. The UARS ground data system policy and implementation plan incorporated by the UARS Project team provided the flexibility necessary to be able to respond to changing priorities and requirements and to permit the ground data system to evolve far beyond initial expectations. This paper describes the policies and plans in place during the initial design and implementation phases and provides an overview of the UARS ground data system. The paper then addresses the changing UARS ground data system design and implementation priorities, the early mission experiences instrumental in the achievement of higher than expected goals, and a brief look at the future for UARS, the first Mission to Planet Earth.

Herring, Ellen L.↗

Commercial Research and Development: Power to Explore, Opportunities from Discovery

The technical and economic goals of commercial use of space are laudable, and are addressed as a high priority by almost every national space program and most major aerospace companies the world over. Yet, the focus of most organizational agendas and discussions tends to focus on one or two very narrow enabling aspects of this potentially large technological and economic opportunity. While government sponsored commercial launch activities and private space platforms are an integral part of efforts to leverage the commercial use of space, these activities are possibly one of the smallest parts of creating, a viable and sustainable market for the commercial use of space. Most of the current programs usually do not appropriately address some of the critical issues of the current, already interested, potential space user communities. Current programs place the focus of the majority of the user requirements on the vehicle payload weight and mass performance considerations as the primary payload economical factor in providing a commercial market with a stimulating price for gaining access to the space environment. The larger user challenges of transformation from Earth-based research and development approaches to space environment approaches are not addressed early enough in programs to impact the new business considerations of potential users. Currently, space-based research and development user activities require a large user investment in time, in development of new areas of support expertise, in development of new systems, in risk of schedule to completion, and in long term capital positioning. The larger opportunities for stimulating a strong market driven interest in commercial use of space that could result from the development of vehicle payload "leap ahead technologies" for users are being missed, and there is a real risk of limiting the potentially broader market base to support a more technologically advanced and economically lucrative outcome. A major driving force for strengthening the commercial space activities is not only the technological advances in launch vehicle, or newer satellites, but the myriad of enabling payloads technologies that could, as a goal, result in an almost transparent facilitation to regular CD a, -n access to space and microgravity environments by the future users from the existing Earth-based research and development organizations market segments. Rather than focusing only on developing high lift performance launch vehicles and then developing payloads to fit them, the real focus from a business model perspective should to be on the customer payloads requirements, and on designing launch vehicles and platforms systems for a space transportation and facility infrastructure to support all aspects of the business model for the user market. To harness the full potential of space commercialization, new efforts need to be made to comprehensively examine all the critical business model areas for commercial research, development, and manufacturing in space so as to identify specific products and efforts; to determine how such operations must be both similar to and different from current Earth-based activities; to evaluate the enabling technological devices, processes and efforts so that like efforts can be addressed in a synergistic fashion for maximum user cost effectiveness; to delineate the services that are both needed and can be provided by such activities; and to use this information to drive design and development of space commercialization efforts and policy.

Casas, Joseph C.↗

Ares V: Refining a New Heavy Lift Capability

The Ares V cargo launch vehicle represents a significant new national commitment to expand human space exploration beyond low Earth orbit. Viewed more broadly, this new heavy-lift rocket will be an advancement over the national strategic capability lost when the Saturn V program ended more than three decades ago. The Ares V is one of two new launch vehicles being designed by NASA to support U.S. Space Exploration Policy. NASA selected the Ares I crew launch vehicle and the Ares V (Figure 1) during extensive independent and internal architecture and vehicle trade studies to complete the International Space Station, retire the current Space Shuttle fleet, return to the Moon by 2020, and journey to destinations beyond. These vehicles share components derived from the Apollo-era Saturn, Space Shuttle, and contemporary launch vehicle programs to provide safe, affordable, reliable, versatile sustainable space transportation to support national space goals for decades to come.

Creech, Steve↗

Updated Human Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept in Support of NASA’s Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021

The NASA Artemis program has brought significant change to the agency’s human exploration strategy over the last several years. The human exploration of Mars remains an ultimate objective of the overall human exploration strategy. However, how the agency intends to execute initial human exploration of Mars has shifted to better align with current policy. These changes find their way into the design of key architecture elements, such as the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV). Of the numerous changes in the conceptual human Mars architecture, two in particular have had significant impact on the design of the human MAV: the desire for minimal surface infrastructure for initial human Mars missions, and technology investment timelines in support of initial human missions to Mars. The first leads to a surface mission architecture targeting a 30-day surface duration with two crewmembers. The second drives out in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) from the initial sortie. As a result, the reference MAV design for initial human Mars missions in the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate’s Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021 (SAC21) is based around supporting the return of 2 crew from the surface of Mars, without surface ISRU. This has led to several design changes since 2019, when details of a reference human MAV were last published. The MAV concept for SAC21 consists of a two-stage vehicle capable of supporting two crew for 84 hours. This duration is derived from a baseline ascent trajectory targeting an apoapsis rendezvous with the habitation element in a nominal 5-sol Mars aggregation orbit. With the goal of minimizing technology investments for the initial surface sortie removing ISRU from the trade space, the MAV must now be landed either fully loaded with propellant, or with some portion of the propellant off-loaded. Landing a partially-fueled MAV will require additional surface assets to perform robotic propellant transfer on the surface of Mars from a pre-emplaced propellant depot. Furthermore, cryogenic fluid management and storage for extended duration with no losses represents additional technology investment that would have to be made to support cryogenic-based propellant concepts that have been the baseline in past architectures. As a result, the SAC21 architecture utilizes a storable propellant-based MAV propulsion system to minimize these potential technology investments incurred by cryogenic-based propulsion systems. Recent efforts also focused on evaluating the sensitivity of key design parameters, such as landing site latitude, elevation, and local atmospheric conditions. All play a large role in determining the predicted propellant requirements of the MAV. Understanding their potential impacts is important because of the rippling effects of changes to the MAV design on other architecture elements, such as entry, descent, landing, and transportation systems. Results indicate up to +2% to -4% wet mass variation due to landing site latitude, with higher latitudes greater than 70 degrees North resulting in greater than 6% wet mass increases. The MAV saw reduced impact due to atmospheric design parameters, which only accounting for -0.6% to +0.4% wet mass variation.

Douglas J. Trent↗

Design Readiness And Maturity Assessment (DRAMA) Tool for Advanced Reactors

Abstract – This research is developing a formal, repeatable method to assess the readiness and maturity of an advanced nuclear reactor design for licensing and deployment. This design readiness and maturity assessment (DRAMA) tool will be capable of determining the readiness of the design and of all parties needed to bring a particular advanced reactor design to fruition. Beneficiaries and stakeholders include the design team, research organizations (required to collect needed data and develop design tools), standards organizations, research facilities to support gathering of needed data, supply chain and construction organizations, and everyone responsible for legal and regulatory infrastructure (including defining import-export requirements). Recent experience has shown that even the most experienced engineering and construction organizations, with decades of experience in the nuclear power business, have had significant challenges in bringing designs to completion, licensing the designs, and constructing new plants. For new entries into the field, simply understanding the unique environmental and regulatory requirements have been daunting. A significant part of the challenge is that new entries into the market do not know what they don't know. This tool will provide design teams a better understanding of their readiness to proceed to licensing (and other steps in the process), while at the same time providing a valuable metric for other interested organizations, such as funding agencies, national regulators, and international markets. The DRAMA tool will provide an assessment of the likelihood of successfully completing licensing and deployment and will also create the capability to assess the ability of regulatory infrastructure and the supply chain to support the deployment of any design or class of designs. It will also help prioritize research and policy efforts to improve the likelihood of deployment of the next generation of advanced reactors.

Arndt, Steven↗

PWR loading pattern optimization with reinforcement learning

The core loading pattern optimization problem belongs to the class of combinatorial optimization problem and has been studied since the dawn of commercial nuclear energy industry. It is characterized by multiple objectives and constraints, with a very high number of candidate patterns, which makes it impossible to solve explicitly. Stochastic optimization methodologies including Genetic Algorithms and Simulated Annealing are used by different nuclear utilities and vendors to perform fuel cycle reload design. Nevertheless, hand-designed solutions continue to be the prevalent method in the industry. To improve the state-of-the-art core reload patterns, we aim to create a method as scalable as possible, that agrees with the designer's goal of performance and safety. To help in this task Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), in particular Proximal Policy Optimization is leveraged. DRL has recently experienced a strong impetus from its successes applied to games, sometimes even reaching 'super-human' performances. This paper lays out the foundation of this method and proposes to study the behavior of several hyper-parameters that influence the DRL algorithm. The algorithm is highly dependent on multiple factors such as an exploration/exploitation trade-off that manifests through different parameters such as the number of loading patterns seen and the number of samples collected before a policy update, but also the shape of the objective function derived for the core design. Experimental results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in finding high-quality solutions from scratch within a reasonable amount of time. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

An ISU study of asteroid mining

During the 1990 summer session of the International Space University, 59 graduate students from 16 countries carried out a design project on using the resources of near-earth asteroids. The results of the project, whose full report is now available from ISU, are summarized. The student team included people in these fields: architecture, business and management, engineering, life sciences, physical sciences, policy and law, resources and manufacturing, and satellite applications. They designed a project for transporting equipment and personnel to a near-earth asteroid, setting up a mining base there, and hauling products back for use in cislunar space. In addition, they outlined the needed precursor steps, beginning with expansion of present ground-based programs for finding and characterizing near-earth asteroids and continuing with automated flight missions to candidate bodies. (To limit the summer project's scope the actual design of these flight-mission precursors was excluded.) The main conclusions were that asteroid mining may provide an important complement to the future use of lunar resources, with the potential to provide large amounts of water and carbonaceous materials for use off earth. However, the recovery of such materials from presently known asteroids did not show an economic gain under the study assumptions; therefore, asteroid mining cannot yet be considered a prospective business.

Burke, J. D.↗

Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

Humphries, G. R. W.↗

Implications of an emission trading scheme for India’s net-zero strategy: a modelling-based assessment

To help meet its near-term NDC goals and long-term net-zero 2070 target, the Government of India has planned to establish a Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), i.e. a domestic emission trading scheme (ETS). An ETS is an inherently cost-effective policy instrument for emission reduction, providing the greatest flexibility to reduce emissions from within and across sectors. An effective ETS requires design features that consider country-specific challenges and reflect its role within the larger policy package to achieve long-term emission reduction. Within the Indian context and in this study we therefore investigate—(i) what might be the role of the ETS in achieving India’s long-term mitigation targets? (ii) How might the various sectors interact under an emissions cap? (iii) How might the ETS interact with existing energy and climate policies? We do this analysis by running four main scenarios using the integrated assessment model GCAM (v6.0), adapted to India-specific assumptions and expectations. These scenarios are—(i) NZ (net-zero), (ii) NZ + ETS, (iii) NZ + CC (command and control), and (iv) NZ + RPO (renewables purchase obligations) + ETS. The NZ scenario assumes India’s near-term and long-term climate commitments of net zero by 2070. Scenarios with ETS (ii) and (iv) apply an emissions cap on four sectors—electricity, iron and steel, cement, and fertilizer. The scenario with CC applies a homogenous emission cap on each of the chosen sectors but does not allow cross-sectoral trading. The last scenario includes renewables purchase obligations (RPOs along with an ETS. We show that under a specific ETS emissions cap: (i) the electricity sector emerges as the largest source of cost-effective greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction options; (ii) ETS with trading across sectors is around 24% more cost-effective than ETS with trading only within sectors, (iii) RPOs can be complementary to an ETS although the impact of RPOs on GHG reductions in the electricity sector would need to be considered when setting the level of the ETS cap (or emissions intensity targets) or the RPO targets to avoid low carbon prices, and (iv) the direction and volume of financial transfers across sectors depends on allocation targets set by the government. Based on these results we provide design recommendations for India’s ETS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integration of Safety, Security, and Safeguards During Design and Operations: A Technical Assessment and Regulatory Considerations for Advanced Reactor and Advanced Fuel Fabrication Facilities

This report presents the current state of knowledge, technology, methodologies, and tools that could be implemented to realize the robust integration of safety, security, and safeguards (3S) for advanced nuclear reactors (ARs) and advanced nuclear fuel cycle facilities. This report was motivated by the global development of ARs which are expected to play a key role in meeting domestic energy and climate objectives. Domestically, with many ARs in the early design phase, the integration of 3S provides an opportunity to achieve risk reduction while using less resources than traditional light water reactors by leveraging interdependencies and synergies between each domain. In addition, domestic policy considerations encourage the convergence of each 3S domain through facility design and operations. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the interdependencies and integration between 3S across ARs and advanced reactor fuel cycle facilities’ lifecycles including design, construction, and operational phases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Design of a dual fault tolerant space shuttle payload deployment actuator

As the Shuttle Transportation System (STS) becomes operational, the number and variety of payloads will increase. The need to deploy these cargo elements will require a variety of unique actuator designs, all of which will have to conform with STS safety policy. For those missions where payload operations extend beyond the payload bay door envelope, this policy deems the prevention of door closure as a catastrophic hazard. As such, it must be controlled by independent, primary and backup methods. The combination of these methods must be two fault tolerant. The design of such an actuator is described. The device consists of a single linear ballscrew with two ballnuts, each bellnut forming an independent actuator using the common ballscrew. The design requirements, concept development, hardware configuration, and fault tolerance rationale are highlighted.

Teske, D. R.↗

Machine learning enables national assessment of wind plant controls with implications for land use

Summary As deployment of wind energy continues to expand, computationally efficient tools for predicting wind plant performance over a wide range of layout designs, technology innovations, and spatial locations are increasingly important for policy and investment decisions. We demonstrate two approaches to training a surrogate model to predict annual energy production (AEP) of parameterized wind plant layouts: one using a Gaussian process (GP) and the other using a fully convolutional neural network (FCNN). We leverage the powerful FCNN architecture by encoding wind plant design parameters and output response surface as an image. The FCNN produces more accurate results than the GP with mean absolute errors equivalent to 1% and 1.9% of plant rated power, respectively, although the GP performs well under limited training data and provides useful uncertainty information. We also evaluate a surrogate model for wake steering, enabling a nationwide assessment of the impact of plant control strategies and plant layout decisions. Across two million locations, we find that wake steering strategies boost AEP with relative gains upwards of 3%. Gains are most pronounced at sites without a dominant wind direction and where layout optimization is less fruitful. Additionally, we perform a nationwide sensitivity analysis showing that wake steering can mitigate wake losses from higher density plant layouts. Our results suggest that regions which have not been previously viable for wind deployment due to moderate wind resources are especially well enhanced by wake steering strategies that could help overcome land constraints and inflexible layout options, potentially identifying new deployment opportunities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA’s Orbital Debris JAO/ES-MCAT Optical Telescope Facility on Ascension Island

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has a long-standing optical program begun over three and a half decades ago in 1984, designed to observe the Earth-orbiting environment with optical telescopes. Photometrically calibrated optical data provides a statistical sample for input to NASA models of the debris population for understanding the current and future debris environment around the Earth. Tracked objects and orbits allow for analysis of break-up events. Both known (correlated target in the SSN catalogue, or CT) and unknown (uncorrelated target, or UCT) objects are of interest to better understand how to protect current spacecraft and design more robust future operational satellites, and advise on how policies and practices can lead to protecting the environment itself for future generations. In 2015, a joint NASA JSC – Air Force Research Labs (AFRL) project culminated in the installation of the 1.3-meter Eugene Stansbery Meter Class Autonomous Telescope, ES-MCAT (a.k.a. MCAT) on Ascension Island. This DFM Engineering designed telescope provides nearly five-times greater light-collecting power than its predecessor, the 0.6-m MODEST telescope, and faster tracking capabilities by both the telescope and the 7-m ObservaDome. This allows for all orbital regimes to be easily within reach, ranging from low Earth to geosynchronous orbits. Extensive testing and commissioning activities of this custom system led to successfully reaching Initial Operational Capability in 2018, and the facility is currently on track to reach Full Operational Capability. The John Africano Observatory (JAO) comprises the primary 1.3-m ES-MCAT facility, the adjacent tower platform with a 0.4-m telescope, a sophisticated suite of weather instruments, and custom software by Euclid Research for autonomously running the entire system, including monitoring the weather and hardware, tasking all components, and collecting, processing, and analyzing the data. The mission of JAO and MCAT will be discussed, including survey and tracking tasking, a full discussion of data calibration, and both optics and weather-dependent performance.

Lederer, S. M.↗

Renewable-Storage Hybrids in a Decarbonized Electricity Supply

We explore the potential impacts of growing industry interest in hybrid systems comprising PV and battery technologies on the results and findings of the Solar Futures Study (2021). Through comparison of Solar Futures Study scenarios with and without PV-battery hybrid configurations enabled (in the same grid planning model), we find that the highest net-value hybrid configuration depends strongly on power sector carbon policy, which increases the value of more forward-looking designs. While the availability of PV-battery hybrid configurations primarily displaces standalone PV and battery capacity, we find that it (a) increases solar's share of total capacity and generation and (b) reduces required transmission expansion and associated costs under scenarios that combine aggressive cost reductions and power sector decarbonization policy. Results will also be presented for the complementarity and economic value of wind-PV hybrids with varying amounts of energy storage.

complementarity↗

Integrating Emerging Polymer Chemistries for the Advancement of Recyclable, Biodegradable, and Biocompatible Electronics

Abstract Through advances in molecular design, understanding of processing parameters, and development of non‐traditional device fabrication techniques, the field of wearable and implantable skin‐inspired devices is rapidly growing interest in the consumer market. Like previous technological advances, economic growth and efficiency is anticipated, as these devices will enable an augmented level of interaction between humans and the environment. However, the parallel growing electronic waste that is yet to be addressed has already left an adverse impact on the environment and human health. Looking forward, it is imperative to develop both human‐ and environmentally‐friendly electronics, which are contingent on emerging recyclable, biodegradable, and biocompatible polymer technologies. This review provides definitions for recyclable, biodegradable, and biocompatible polymers based on reported literature, an overview of the analytical techniques used to characterize mechanical and chemical property changes, and standard policies for real‐life applications. Then, various strategies in designing the next‐generation of polymers to be recyclable, biodegradable, or biocompatible with enhanced functionalities relative to traditional or commercial polymers are discussed. Finally, electronics that exhibit an element of recyclability, biodegradability, or biocompatibility with new molecular design are highlighted with the anticipation of integrating emerging polymer chemistries into future electronic devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hypothesis testing via AI: Generating physically interpretable models of scientific data with machine learning (Full Technical Report)

Deep learning has demonstrated an exceptional ability to solve complex tasks (an engineering success); however, it has done so at the expense of the ability to generate new knowledge (a scientific failure). We propose an alternative framework—entitled Deep Symbolic Regression (DSR)—in which artificial neural networks (NNs) rapidly generate hypotheses about physical relationships among inputs. This framework bypasses the need to interpret an NN altogether, while still leveraging the representational power of deep learning. The resulting models are tractable mathematical expressions, which are inherently and readily human interpretable and can provide insights into underlying physical phenomena. Further, we fold this methodology into the scientific process by allowing the scientist to directly integrate a priori knowledge and beliefs to accelerate learning. We demonstrate this methodology on symbolic regression—the problem of rediscovering underlying expressions describing a dataset—and achieve state-of-the-art performance across a wide variety of symbolic regression problems. Further, we generalize our DSR framework to apply to the more general class of symbolic optimization problems, in which one seeks to optimize a sequence of symbols or “tokens” under a black-box reward function. Examples of other symbolic optimization problems include neural architecture search and computational antibody design. Our generalized tool, Deep Symbolic Optimization (DSO), has been demonstrated on the task of learning symbolic control policies for reinforcement learning environments, and has been adopted as an enabling capability for computational antibody design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Clean Energy Revolving Loan Funds: International Experience [Slides]

Tunisia’s Energy Transition Fund (FTE), created in 2013, was established to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy projects in the public and private sectors. To overcome financing challenges related to the energy transition, Tunisia’s National Agency for Energy Conservation (ANME) seeks both to strengthen available financial resources and to develop innovative financing structures. Revolving Loan Funds (RLFs) are one such innovative financing structure, used by countries around the world to foster the development of distributed clean energy projects. This report aims to inform policy makers and various stakeholders on the opportunity to design an RLF by drawing on successful experiences from other countries. Specifically, this report provides analytical support for discussions with ANME and its partners to develop an RLF in the context of Tunisia. It outlines the 12 essential steps for establishing a RLF and includes detailed case studies demonstrating successful RLF implementation across various contexts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Driving Affordable Decarbonization: Inclusive Utility Program Designs for Disadvantaged Communities

Our research team worked with 17 utility partners from various U.S. regions to study current utility program practices. We identified the key characteristics of these programs and the challenges and opportunities in implementing them. Through our research, we provide a pragmatic, design-oriented, and customer-centered perspective for effective program design and implementation. We identify 13 successful characteristics of program design that may be considered by utility partners.

disadvantaged communities↗