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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Solar Neighborhood. XLVII. Comparing M-dwarf Models with Hubble Space Telescope Dynamical Masses and Spectroscopy

We use HST/STIS optical spectroscopy of 10 M dwarfs in five closely separated binary systems to test models of M-dwarf structure and evolution. Individual dynamical masses ranging from 0.083 to 0.405 M {sub ⊙} for all stars are known from previous work. We first derive temperature, radius, luminosity, surface gravity, and metallicity by fitting the BT-Settl atmospheric models. We verify that our methodology agrees with empirical results from long-baseline optical interferometry for stars of similar spectral types. We then test whether or not evolutionary models can predict those quantities given the stars’ known dynamical masses and the conditions of coevality and equal metallicity within each binary system. We apply this test to five different evolutionary model sets: the Dartmouth models, the MESA/MIST models, the models of Baraffe et al., the PARSEC models, and the YaPSI models. We find marginal agreement between evolutionary model predictions and observations, with few cases where the models respect the condition of coevality in a self-consistent manner. We discuss the pros and cons of each family of models and compare their predictive power.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bringing 2D Eclipse Mapping out of the Shadows with Leave-one-out Cross Validation

Abstract Eclipse mapping is a technique for inferring 2D brightness maps of transiting exoplanets from the shape of an eclipse light curve. With JWST’s unmatched precision, eclipse mapping is now possible for a large number of exoplanets. However, eclipse mapping has only been applied to two planets, and the nuances of fitting eclipse maps are not yet fully understood. Here, we use Leave-one-out Cross Validation (LOO-CV) to investigate eclipse mapping, with application to a JWST NIRISS/SOSS observation of the ultrahot Jupiter WASP-18b. LOO-CV is a technique that provides insight into the out-of-sample predictive power of models on a data-point-by-data-point basis. We show that constraints on planetary brightness patterns behave as expected, with large-scale variations driven by the phase-curve variation in the light curve and smaller-scale structures constrained by the eclipse ingress and egress. For WASP-18b we show that the need for higher model complexity (smaller-scale features) is driven exclusively by the shape of the eclipse ingress and egress. We use LOO-CV to investigate the relationship between planetary brightness map components when mapping under a positive-flux constraint to better understand the need for complex models. Finally, we use LOO-CV to understand the degeneracy between the competing “hot spot” and “plateau” brightness map models of WASP-18b, showing that the plateau model is driven by the ingress shape and the hot spot model is driven by the egress shape, but preference for neither model is due to outliers or unmodeled signals. Based on this analysis, we make recommendations for the use of LOO-CV in future eclipse-mapping studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accretion onto a Supermassive Black Hole Binary before Merger

While supermassive binary black holes (SMBBHs) inspiral toward merger they may also accrete matter from a surrounding disk. To study the dynamics of this system requires simultaneously describing the evolving spacetime and the magnetized plasma. We present the first relativistic calculation simulating two equal-mass, nonspinning black holes as they inspiral from a 20 M (G = c = 1) initial separation almost to merger. Our results imply important observational consequences: for instance, the accretion rate $\dot{M}$ onto the black holes first decreases and then plateaus, dropping by only a factor of ~3 despite the rapid inspiral. An estimated bolometric light curve follows the same profile, suggesting some merging SMBBHs may be significantly luminous past the predicted circumbinary disk decoupling. The minidisks are nonstandard: Reynolds, not Maxwell, stresses dominate, and they oscillate between two states. In one part of the cycle, "sloshing" streams transfer mass between minidisks, carrying kinetic energy at a rate sometimes as high as the peak minidisk bolometric luminosity. We also discover that episodic accretion drives time-varying minidisk tilts. These complex dynamics all contribute to unique cyclical behavior in the light curves of late-time inspiraling SMBBHs. The poloidal magnetic flux on the black holes is roughly constant at a dimensionless level $\phi$ ~ 2–3, but doubles just before merger; for significant black hole spin, this flux predicts powerful jets with variability driven by binary dynamics, another potentially unique electromagnetic signature. This simulation is the first to employ our multipatch infrastructure PATCHWORK MHD, decreasing the computational expense to ~3% of conventional single-grid methods' cost.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement-driven large-eddy simulations of a diurnal cycle during a wake-steering field campaign

Abstract. High-fidelity flow modeling with data assimilation enables accurate representation of the wind farm operating environment under realistic, nonstationary atmospheric conditions. Capturing the temporal evolution of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer is critical to understanding the behavior of wind turbines under operating conditions with simultaneously varying inflow and control inputs. This paper has three parts: the identification of a case study during a field evaluation of wake steering; the development of a tailored mesoscale-to-microscale coupling strategy that resolved local flow conditions within a large-eddy simulation (LES), using observations that did not completely capture the wind and temperature fields throughout the simulation domain; and the application of this coupling strategy to validate high-fidelity aeroelastic predictions of turbine performance and wake interactions with and without wake steering. The case study spans 4.5 h after midnight local time, during which wake steering was toggled on and off five times, achieving yaw offset angles ranging from 0 to 17°. To resolve nonstationary nighttime conditions that exhibited shear instabilities, the turbulence field was evolved starting from the diurnal cycle of the previous day. These background conditions were then used to drive wind farm simulations with two different models: an LES with actuator disk turbines and a steady-state engineering wake model. Subsequent analysis identified two representative periods during which the up- and downstream turbines were most nearly aligned with the mean wind direction and had observed yaw offsets of 0 and 15°. Both periods corresponded to partial waking on the downstream turbine, which had errors in the LES-predicted power of 4 % and 6 %, with and without wake steering. The LES was also able to capture conditions during which an upstream turbine wake induced a speedup at a downstream turbine and increased power production by up to 13 %.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Meta-modeling strategy for data-driven forecasting

Accurately forecasting the weather is a key requirement for climate change mitigation. Data-driven methods offer the ability to make more accurate forecasts, but lack interpretability and can be expensive to train and deploy if models are not carefully developed. Here, we make use of two historical climate data sets and tools from machine learning, to accurately predict temperature fields. Furthermore, we are able to use low fidelity models that are cheap to train and evaluate, to selectively avoid expensive high fidelity function evaluations, as well as uncover seasonal variations in predictive power. This allows for an adaptive training strategy for computationally efficient geophysical emulation.

Skinner, Dominic J↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncovering Where Compensating Errors Could Hide in ENDF/B-VIII.0

Unconstrained physics spaces between two or more nuclear data observables in a library occur when their values can be simultaneously adjusted without violating the uncertainties in either differential information or simulations of relevant integral experiments. Differential data are often too imprecise to fully bound all nuclear data observables of interest for application simulations. Integral data are simulated with combinations of nuclear data so that an error in one observable may be hidden by a counterbalancing error in another. In this manner compensating errors may lurk within nuclear data libraries and these errors have the potential to undermine the predictive power of neutron transport simulations, particularly in situations where there is no conclusive validation experiment that resembles the application of interest. The EUCLID project (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) developed a preliminary workflow to identify these unconstrained physics spaces by bringing together results from a large collection of integral experiments with their simulated counter-parts as well as differential information that have a one-to-one correspondence to nuclear data. This wealth of information is processed by machine learning tools for subsequent refinement by human experts. Here, we show how the EUCLID work-flow is executed by applying it first to 239 Pu and then to 9 Be nuclear data in ENDF/B-VIII.0.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

P{sub N} source expansion nodal method in MPACT for boiling water reactors

This paper describes the one-node P{sub N}-Source Expansion Nodal Method (SENM) axial solver for the 2D/1D method recently implemented in MPACT to support Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) analysis. Since the BWR has a more complicated design and strong burnable absorber, the existing PN-Nodal Expansion Method (NEM) axial solver in MPACT may not be sufficient to accurately represent the intranodal flux and source profiles for BWRs. The one-node P{sub N}-SENM has been implemented in this work to reduce the axial spatial discretization error for BWRs. From numerical results, we verify that the P{sub N}-SENM can improve the accuracy of the pin power prediction, and confirm that P{sub N}-SENM can use more than a 1.5 times larger axial mesh size than P{sub N}-NEM to have similar accuracy for the BWR GE14 3D assembly problem. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

How to Safely Build 100-plus Kilograms of Weapons-Grade Plutonium

The goal of the EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) project was to reduce compensating errors by utilizing machine learning to both help determine which reactions contain compensating errors as well as optimizing an experiment which can be used to maximally reduce these errors. Compensating errors can adversely impact the predictive power of application simulations, and therefore it’s useful to further constrain nuclear data and reduce these errors. The EUCLID project included building two configurations at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). These two configurations had very different geometries (one was cube-like and one was slab-like). Previous works focus on selection of the target experiment(s), radiation transport capabilities developed in the project, the experiment optimization, and the performance of the experiments. This work will focus only on the safety aspects of performing this experiment, which utilized over 100 kg of weapons-grade plutonium.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

NEA HTTR LOFC Project Test#3 Benchmark Results

In the second half of FY23, the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) Loss Of Forced Cooling (LOFC)#3 data for the 9 MW test case with Vessel Cooling System (VCS) off were made available through the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) LOFC project framework; the neutronic model developed for the initial test (LOFC#1) achieved a satisfactory level of maturity, demonstrating its accuracy in predicting power evolution and core re-criticality, but LOFC#3 should be used primarily to investigate thermal hydraulic phenomena, as the reactor was shut down prematurely due to overheating in the upper reactor components, which prevented re-criticality; this report focuses on advancing the HTTR thermal hydraulic model to accurately simulate the LOFC#3 scenario, including simulating the LOFC#3 benchmark and generating the corresponding benchmark specifications, aiming to ensure consistency across participant models and provide essential data for future participants, including private industry stakeholders seeking to validate their computational tools.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilient Observer Design for Cyber-Physical Systems with Data-Driven Measurement Pruning

Resilient observer design for Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) in the presence of adversarial false data injection attacks (FDIA) is an active area of research. The existing state-of-the-art algorithms tend to break down as more and more knowledge of the system is built into the attack model; also as the percentage of attacked nodes increases. From the view of optimization theory, the problem is often cast as a classical error correction problem for which a theoretical limit of has been established as the maximum percentage attacked nodes for which state recovery is guaranteed. Beyond this limit, the performance of -minimization based schemes, for instance, deteriorates rapidly. Similar performance degradation occurs for other types of resilient observers beyond certain percentages of attacked nodes. In order to increase the corresponding percentage of attacked nodes for which state recoveries can be guaranteed, researchers have begun to incorporate prior information into the underlying resilient observer design framework. For the most pragmatic cases, this prior information is often obtained through a data-driven machine learning process. Existing results have shown a strong positive correlation between the maximum attacked percentages that can be tolerated and the accuracy of the data-driven model. Motivated by these results, this chapter examines the case for pruning algorithms designed to improve the Positive Prediction Value (PPV) of the resulting prior information, given stochastic uncertainty characteristics of the underlying machine learning model. Theoretical quantification of the achievable improvement is given. Simulation results show that the pruning algorithm significantly increases the maximum correctable percentage of attacked nodes, even for machine learning model whose prediction power is comparable to the random flip of a coin.

Resilient Observer, Cyber-physical Systems, Data-D↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pion Nucleon Scattering in BCHPT Combined with 1/Nc Expansion

Pion nucleon scattering has played a crucial role in advancing our understanding of the low-energy regime of strong interactions. This dissertation presents the development of a new theoretical framework that combines Baryon Chiral Perturbation Theory (BChPT) with the 1/Nc Expansion to analyze pion nucleon scattering. The resulting effective Lagrangian incorporates both chiral and spin-flavor symmetries. Scattering amplitudes are calculated up to the one-loop level (NNLO), which includes four tree-level Feynman diagrams and 45 non-zero loop diagrams. The effective Lagrangian is renormalized at the one-loop level. With spin-3/2 baryons naturally included, the framework demonstrates strong convergence at higher energies. The NNLO pion nucleon scattering amplitude shows good agreement with experimental data from the SAID database. This novel approach, BChPT combined with 1/Nc Expansion, demonstrates substantial predictive power at higher energies where other low-energy theories fall short, achieving the goals of this combined framework. The contribution from loop diagrams is essential for achieving good agreement with the data, highlighting the importance of conducting the calculation up to NNLO. Extracted values for physically measurable quantities agree reasonably well with independently extracted values, underscoring the robustness of the theory.

Jayakodige, Dulitha [Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA (U↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demand response of loads having thermal reserves

Systems and methods are described herein that improve grid performance by smoothing demand using thermal reserves. The smoothed demand can reduce peak loads as well as the ramp rate of demand that will otherwise require the use of inefficient, expensive generation sources. These improvements are tied to the selective switching on or off electrical loads that are coupled to thermal reserves, effectively using the thermal reserves as an energy storage mechanism. Historical data of past usage can be used to create load model and ensure that effects on customer comfort are minimized while still accomplishing the beneficial effects for the overall grid, which enables grid owners to both reduce their operational cost by avoiding expensive generation and improve system reliability by achieving more predictable power demand.

Ren, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preliminary analysis of TREAT free-field experiments using OpenMC

This work analyses activation calculations for dosimetry materials during a steady-state irradiation in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) reactor core. Hence, we developed a workflow based on the Monte Carlo code OpenMC alongside a custom depletion solver. The irradiation-induced activity as a function of time is computed, and several sensitivity studies are performed to evaluate uncertainty. This study has shown activity computations are sensitive to flux amplitude, irradiation time, atoms quantity and microscopic cross sections. Stochastic uncertainties have been propagated to evaluate the activity uncertainty for each dosimetry material. Most uncertainties are below our target of 3%, which demonstrates OpenMC as a powerful predictive and analysis tool. The precise results obtained through this newly developed computation scheme will be used in future experiments to characterize quantities of interest when operating the TREAT reactor in new configurations.

61 - RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Glassoformer: A Query-Sparse Transformer for Post-Fault Power Grid Voltage Prediction

Here, we propose GLassoformer, a novel and efficient transformer architecture leveraging group Lasso regularization to reduce the number of queries of the standard self-attention mechanism. Due to the sparsified queries, GLassoformer is more computationally efficient than the standard transformers. On the power grid post-fault voltage prediction task, GLasso-former shows remarkably better prediction than many existing benchmark algorithms in terms of accuracy and stability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

HydraGNN_OPF_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for power grid applications

This dataset supports research on graph foundation models for optimal power flow (OPF) on electric grids using HydraGNN. It contains heterogeneous graph representations of PGLib-OPF cases spanning systems from 14 to 13,659 buses, together with packed HDF5 datasets for pretraining, feasibility classification, and N-1 contingency analysis. The release includes OPF solution data, downstream fine-tuning datasets, pretrained HeteroSAGE and HeteroHEAT model checkpoints, hyperparameter-optimization summaries across multiple heterogeneous GNN architectures, and aggregated fine-tuning results for sample-efficiency studies. The dataset is designed to enable scalable training, evaluation, and transfer-learning studies for OPF surrogate modeling, including node-level AC-OPF solution prediction, graph-level prediction, feasibility classification, operating-condition generalization, and contingency-response tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forward and inverse predictive transient models of TREAT using surrogate reactivity models

In this work, we present two novel approaches for predicting the power evolution and control rod height of the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to support experiment modeling; specifically, transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored Sirius series of experiments. These approaches utilize steady-state Monte Carlo model, point kinetics model, and surrogate models to predict power evolution and control rod axial position during transient experiments. Both approaches were tested and validated against several Sirius experiments that were performed in the TREAT facility at different power levels. The validation test results show very good agreement with the experimental data, and the models were able to accurately predict the power evolution and the axial control rod position with an average error within 3.0%. Finally, this indicates that these approaches will help the reactor engineering team of the TREAT facility in preparing and predicting the power and temperature of the experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗