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Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales

Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. Here we evaluate changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The “extra” broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly “wetting” areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in “drying” areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Diurnal and Semi-Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite- and Ground-Based Observations

We report the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation simulated from CMIP6 models during 1996-2005 are evaluated globally between 60°S and 60°N, as well as at ten selected locations representing three categories of diurnal cycle of precipitation: (1) afternoon precipitation over land, (2) early morning precipitation over ocean, and (3) nocturnal precipitation over land. Three satellite-based and two ground-based rainfall products are used to evaluate the climate models. Globally, the ensemble mean of CMIP6 models shows a diurnal phase of 3 to 4 hours earlier over land and 1 to 2 hours earlier over ocean, when compared with the latest satellite products. These biases are in line with what were found in previous versions of climate models but reduced compared to the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Analysis at the selected locations complimented with in-situ measurements further reinforces these results. Several CMIP6 models have shown a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of precipitation compared to their CMIP5 counterparts, notably on delaying afternoon precipitation over land. This can be attributed to the use of more sophisticated convective parameterizations. Most models are still unable to capture the nocturnal peak associated with elevated convection and propagating mesoscale convective systems, with a few exceptions that allow convection to be initiated above the boundary layer to capture nocturnal elevated convection. We also quantify an encouraging consistency between the satellite- and ground-based precipitation measurements despite differing spatiotemporal resolutions and sampling periods, which provides confidence in using them to evaluate the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50° S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr-1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr-1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr-1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr-1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climatic Variability of Precipitation from the Seasonal Cycle to ENSO Using GPCP's Merged Data Product and SSM/I-Based Microwave Estimates

Satellite estimates and gauge observations of precipitation are useful in understanding the water cycle, analyzing climatic variability, and validating climate models. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) released a community merged precipitation data set for the period July 1987 through the present, and has recently extended that data set back to 1986. One objective of this study is to use GPCP estimates to describe and quantify the seasonal variation of precipitation, with emphasis on the Asian summer monsoon. Another focus is the 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and associated extreme precipitation events. The summer monsoon tends to be drier than normal in El Nino ears. This was not observed for 1997 or 1998, while for 1997 the NCEP model produced the largest summer rain rates over India in years. This inconsistency will be examined. The average annual global precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day as estimated by GPCP, which is similar to values computed from long-term climatologies. From 30 deg N to 30 deg S the average precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day over land with a maximum in the annual cycle occurring in February-March, when the Amazon basin receives abundant rainfall. The average precipitation rate is 3.1 mm day over the tropical oceans, with a peak earlier in the season (November-December), corresponding with the transition from a strong Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from June to November to a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from December to March. The seasonal evolution of C, C, the Asian summer monsoon stands out with rains in excess of 15 mm day off the coast of Burma in June. The GPROF pentad data also captures the onset of the tropical Pacific rainfall patterns associated with the 1997-98 ENSO. From February to October 1997 at least four rain-producing systems traveled from West to East in the equatorial corridor. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions occurred in May-June 1998. GPCP and GPROF were used to construct precipitation-based ENSO indices to monitor El Ninos (EL) and La Ninas and (LI).

Curtis, Scott↗

Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution From Multi-Satellite Observations

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) technique is described for producing globally complete daily estimates of precipitation on a 1 deg x 1 deg lat/long grid from currently available observational data. Where possible (40 deg N-40 deg S), the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI) provides precipitation estimates in which the 3-hourly infrared brightness temperatures (IR T(sub b)) are thresholded and all "cold" pixels are given a single precipitation rate. This approach is an adaptation of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index (GPI), but for the TMPI the IR Tb threshold and conditional rain rate are set locally by month from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-based precipitation frequency and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite-gauge (SG) combined monthly precipitation estimate, respectively. At higher latitudes the 1DD features a rescaled daily Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) precipitation. The frequency of rain days in the TOVS is scaled down to match that in the TMPI at the data boundaries, and the resulting non-zero TOVS values are scaled locally to sum to the SG (which is a globally complete monthly product). The time series of the daily 1DD global images shows good continuity in time and across the data boundaries. Various examples are shown to illustrate uses. Validation for individual grid -box values shows a very high root-mean-square error but, it improves quickly when users perform time/space averaging according to their own requirements.

Huffman, George J.↗

Evolution of Tropical and Extratropical Precipitation Anomalies During the 1997 to 1999 ENSO Cycle

The 1997-1999 ENSO period was very powerful, but also well observed. Multiple satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a quantitative analysis of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and elsewhere accompanying the 1997-99 ENSO cycle. An examination of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. Furthermore, westerly wind burst events may have maintained the drought over the Maritime Continent. The warming of the equatorial Pacific was then followed by an increase in convection. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured substantial changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. The global precipitation patterns for this event were in good agreement with the strong consistent ENSO-related precipitation signals identified in earlier studies. Differences included a shift in precipitation anomalies over Africa during the 1997-98 El Nino and unusually wet conditions over northeast Australia during the later stages of the El Nino. Also, the typically wet region in the north tropical Pacific was mostly dry during the 1998-99 La Nina. Reanalysis precipitation was compared to observations during this time period and substantial differences were noted. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations.

Curtis, Scott↗

Validation and Development of the GPCP Experimental One-Degree Daily (1DD) Global Precipitation Product

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation dataset has been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and is currently in beta test preparatory to release as an official GPCP product. The 1DD provides a globally-complete, observation-only estimate of precipitation on a daily 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid for the period 1997 through early 2000 (by the time of the conference). In the latitude band 40N-40S the 1DD uses the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI), a GPI-like IR product with the pixel-level T(sub b) threshold and (single) conditional rain rate determined locally for each month by the frequency of precipitation in the GPROF SSM/I product and by, the precipitation amount in the GPCP monthly satellite-gauge (SG) combination. Outside 40N-40S the 1DD uses a scaled TOVS precipitation estimate that has month-by-month adjustments based on the TMPI and the SG. Early validation results are encouraging. The 1DD shows relatively large scatter about the daily validation values in individual grid boxes, as expected for a technique that depends on cloud-sensing schemes such as the TMPI and TOVS. On the other hand, the time series of 1DD shows good correlation with validation in individual boxes. For example, the 1997-1998 time series of 1DD and Oklahoma Mesonet values in a grid box in northeastern Oklahoma have the correlation coefficient = 0.73. Looking more carefully at these two time series, the number of raining days for the 1DD is within 7% of the Mesonet value, while the distribution of daily rain values is very similar. Other tests indicate that area- or time-averaging improve the error characteristics, making the data set highly attractive to users interested in stream flow, short-term regional climatology, and model comparisons. The second generation of the 1DD product is currently under development; it is designed to directly incorporate TRMM and other high-quality precipitation estimates. These data are generally sparse because they are observed by low-orbit satellites, so a fair amount of work must be devoted to analyzing the effect of data boundaries. This work is laying, the groundwork for effective use of the NASA Global Precipitation Mission, which will have full Global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours.

Huffman, George J.↗

Use of TRMM Data to Test an Improved Parameterization of Stratiform Precipitation

We successfully implemented our EAUcup parameterization of convection in our most recent geodesic-grid version of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM). Tendencies due to convection and large-scale cloud microphysics are computed using the same time-step, allowing smoother interactions between convective and large-scale moist processes. Figures illustrate our most recent progress on the simulation of convective and stratiform precipitations for January. Comparisons against TRMM precipitation radar (PR) data would reveal a systematic overestimation of the simulated monthly-mean convective rainfall over well-known areas of deep convection. One major deficiency in the global distribution of stratiform precipitation simulated in the CSU GCM is the lack of stratiform precipitation over land in the tropics. This result strongly disagree with Fowler and Randall who show that convective and stratiform precipitations always coexist and that their ratio to the total precipitation is about 0.5. We believe that stratiform precipitation over land evaporates before reaching the ground because the lower troposphere remains too dry in response to the lack of convective detrainment occurring immediately above the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). This issue is further investigated at present. We made significant progress in the development of our parameterization of fractional cloudiness. As an example of our ongoing research effort, a figure shows the global distribution of the cloud ice mixing ratio and corresponding fractional area of ice clouds at 250 hPa. These results were obtained using our latitude-longitude grid version of the CSU GCM. There is a nice correspondence between areas of high (low) values of the cloud ice mixing ratio and the cloud fraction. A nice correspondence between the global distribution of the cloud water mixing ratio and fraction of water clouds in the lower troposphere can also be found. We are pursuing this effort, but in the geodesic version of the GCM. We hope to be able to make comparison of the simulated precipitation against TRMM precipitation data in the near future.

Randall, David A.↗

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what ultimately is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of this mission as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. In this presentation, an overview of the GPM mission design will be presented, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk will address how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. Improved hydrometeorological forecasting will be possible by using continuous global precipitation observations to obtain better closure in water budgets and to generate more realistic forcing of the models themselves to achieve more accurate estimates of interception, infiltration, evaporation/transpiration fluxes, storage, and runoff.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Anticipated Improvements in Precipitation Physics and Understanding of Water Cycle from GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late-2007 to early-2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, involving existing, pending, projected, and under-study partnerships which will link NASA and NOAA in the US, NASDA in Japan, ESA in Europe, ISRO in India, CNES in France, and possibly AS1 in Italy, KARI in South Korea, CSA in Canada, and AEB in Brazil. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international collaborators and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of GPM as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. An overview of the GPM mission design is given, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk addresses how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. These improvements become possible by using more accurate, more microphysically-centric, more frequent, and fully global precipitation observations to achieve better water budget closure and to provide more realistic forcing and assessment of prediction models.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Seasonal Variation in Precipitation Patterns to the Global Ocean: An Analysis of the GPCP Version 2 Data Set

An analysis of temporal and spatial variation of oceanic precipitation was conducted on the GPCP version two data set. While the precipitation patterns observed are generally similar to the previous climatologies, new features and greater detail of global precipitation were revealed from out analysis of the GPCP data set. High precipitation waw observed in the inter-tropical convergence zone, the South Pacific convergence zone, and the storm tracks in the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Low precipitation was observe in the Polar regions and in the subtropics of the East Pacific, East Atlantic, and the Southeast and Northwest Indian Ocean. The spatial coverage of these high and low precipitation regions changed thruough the year. A strong seasonal cycle or precipitation was observed for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres and for each ocean basin. Global precipitation also varied significantly with both latitude and longitude, with a latitudinal maximum at 56 degrees South, 39 degrees South, 4 degrees South, 6 degrees North, 39 degrees North, and 56 degress North, and a longitudinal maxiumum over each ocean. The seasonal varying precipitation patterns are a foundation for evaluating the effect of wet deposition on ocean circulation, flux of chemical species, and its effect on marine ecosystems.

Miller, Richard↗

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Project

The GIobd Precipitation hleasurement (GPM) mission is an international cooperati~ee ffort to advance weather, climate, and hydrological predictions through space-based precipitation measurements. The Core Observatory will be a reference standard to uniform11 calibrate data from a constellatism of spacecraft with passive microuave sensors. GP3l mission data will be used for scientific research as well as societal applications. GPM is being developed under a partnership between the United States (US) National .Aeronautics and Space Administration (XASA) and the Japanese Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAYA). NASA is developing the Core Observatory, a Low-Inclination Constellation Observatory, two GPM Rlicrowave Imager (GXII) instruments. Ground Validation System and Precipitation Processing System for the GPRl mission. JAXA will provide a Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) for installation on the Core satellite and launch services for the Core Observatory. Other US agencies and international partners contribute to the GPkf mission by providing precipitation measurements obtained from their own spacecraft and,'or providing ground-based precipitation measurements to support ground validation activities. The GPM Core Observatory will be placed in a low earth orbit (-400 krn) with 65-degree inclination, in order to calibrate partner instruments in a variety of orbits. The Core Observatory accommodates 3 instruments. The GkfI instrument provides measurements of precipitation intensity and distribution. The DPR consists of Ka and Ku band instruments, and provides threedimensional measurements of cloud structure, precipitation particle size distribution and precipitation intensitj and distribution. The instruments are key drivers for GPM Core Observatory overall size (1 1.6m x 6.5m x 5.0m) and mass (3500kg), as well as the significant (-1 950U.3 power requirement. The Core Spacecraft is being built in-house at Goddard Space Flight Center. The spacecraft structure consists of an aluminum lower bus structure. composite upper bus structure, '-axis steerable High Gain Antenna System on a dual-hinged boom, and two deploy able solar arraq s. The propulsion system features twelve thrusters and a single Composite Overlv~apP ressure Vessel tank. The GPhl Core spacecraft is one of the first large spacecraft developed to be demiseable (i.e. burn up upon atmospheric reentry j. The spacecraft dernissable components-- structure. propulsion tank, lithium-ion battery, sotar array md reaction wheels. are a unique fcature.

Azarbarazin, Ardeshir Art↗

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Overview and U.S. Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission designed to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational microwave sensors. NASA and JAXA will deploy the GPM Core Observatory carrying an advanced radar-radiometer system to serve as a physics observatory and a transfer standard for inter-calibration of constellation radiometers. The GPM Core Observatory is scheduled for launch in July 2013. NASA will provide a second radiometer to be flown on a partner-provided GPM Low-Inclination Observatory to enhance the near real-time monitoring of hurricanes and mid-latitude storms. JAXA will also contribute data from the Global Change Observation Mission-Water (GCOM-W) satellite. Additional partnerships are under development to include microwave radiometers on the French-Indian Megha-Tropiques satellite and U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, as well as cross-track scanning humidity sounders on operational satellites such as the NPP, POES, JPSS, and MetOp satellites, which are used to improve the precipitation sampling over land. Brazil has in its national space plan for a GPM low-inclination radiometer, and data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers could potentially become available through international collaboration under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). The current generation of global rainfall products combines observations from a network of uncoordinated satellite missions using a variety of merging techniques. GPM will provide "next-generation" precipitation data products characterized by: (1) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurement (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of microwave radiometers including operational humidity sounders over land, (3) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud/hydrometeor database constructed from GPM Core sensor measurements. As a science mission with integrated application goals, GPM will (1) provide new measurement standards for precipitation estimation from space, (2) improve understanding of precipitation physics, the global water cycle variability, and freshwater availability, and (3) advance weather/climate/hydrological prediction capabilities to directly benefit the society. An overview of the GPM mission concept, NASA program status, science activities in the United States, as well as a wide range of international scientific collaborations in radiometer inter-calibration, retrieval algorithm development, and ground validation will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Next-Generation Satellite Precipitation Products for Understanding Global and Regional Water Variability

A major challenge in understanding the space-time variability of continental water fluxes is the lack of accurate precipitation estimates over complex terrains. While satellite precipitation observations can be used to complement ground-based data to obtain improved estimates, space-based and ground-based estimates come with their own sets of uncertainties, which must be understood and characterized. Quantitative estimation of uncertainties in these products also provides a necessary foundation for merging satellite and ground-based precipitation measurements within a rigorous statistical framework. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international satellite mission that will provide next-generation global precipitation data products for research and applications. It consists of a constellation of microwave sensors provided by NASA, JAXA, CNES, ISRO, EUMETSAT, DOD, NOAA, NPP, and JPSS. At the heart of the mission is the GPM Core Observatory provided by NASA and JAXA to be launched in 2013. The GPM Core, which will carry the first space-borne dual-frequency radar and a state-of-the-art multi-frequency radiometer, is designed to set new reference standards for precipitation measurements from space, which can then be used to unify and refine precipitation retrievals from all constellation sensors. The next-generation constellation-based satellite precipitation estimates will be characterized by intercalibrated radiometric measurements and physical-based retrievals using a common observation-derived hydrometeor database. For pre-launch algorithm development and post-launch product evaluation, NASA supports an extensive ground validation (GV) program in cooperation with domestic and international partners to improve (1) physics of remote-sensing algorithms through a series of focused field campaigns, (2) characterization of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based precipitation products over selected GV testbeds, and (3) modeling of atmospheric processes and land surface hydrology through simulation, downscaling, and data assimilation. An overview of the GPM mission, science status, and synergies with HyMex activities will be presented

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Newly Released TRMM Version 7 Products, Other Precipitation Datasets and Data Services at NASA GES DISC

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is home of global precipitation product archives, in particular, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products. TRMM is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical (40 S - 40 N) precipitation and to estimate its associated latent heating. The TRMM satellite provides the first detailed and comprehensive dataset on the four dimensional distribution of rainfall and latent heating over vastly undersampled tropical and subtropical oceans and continents. The TRMM satellite was launched on November 27, 1997. TRMM data products are archived at and distributed by GES DISC. The newly released TRMM Version 7 consists of several changes including new parameters, new products, meta data, data structures, etc. For example, hydrometeor profiles in 2A12 now have 28 layers (14 in V6). New parameters have been added to several popular Level-3 products, such as, 3B42, 3B43. Version 2.2 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset has been added to the TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS; URL: http://disc2.nascom.nasa.gov/Giovanni/tovas/), allowing online analysis and visualization without downloading data and software. The GPCP dataset extends back to 1979. Version 3 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monitoring product has been updated in TOVAS as well. The product provides global gauge-based monthly rainfall along with number of gauges per grid. The dataset begins in January 1986. To facilitate data and information access and support precipitation research and applications, we have developed a Precipitation Data and Information Services Center (PDISC; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitation). In addition to TRMM, PDISC provides current and past observational precipitation data. Users can access precipitation data archives consisting of both remote sensing and in-situ observations. Users can use these data products to conduct a wide variety of activities, including case studies, model evaluation, uncertainty investigation, etc. To support Earth science applications, PDISC provides users near-real-time precipitation products over the Internet. At PDISC, users can access tools and software. Documentation, FAQ and assistance are also available. Other capabilities include: 1) Mirador (http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/), a simplified interface for searching, browsing, and ordering Earth science data at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Mirador is designed to be fast and easy to learn; 2)TOVAS; 3) NetCDF data download for the GIS community; 4) Data via OPeNDAP (http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/services/opendap/). The OPeNDAP provides remote access to individual variables within datasets in a form usable by many tools, such as IDV, McIDAS-V, Panoply, Ferret and GrADS; 5) The Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Map Service (WMS) (http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/services/wxs_ogc.shtml). The WMS is an interface that allows the use of data and enables clients to build customized maps with data coming from a different network.

Liu, Zhong↗

Diurnal Variation of Precipitation During MC3E Campaign

The diurnal variation of precipitation processes in the United States (US) is well recognized but incompletely understood (Cabone et al. 2002). The diurnal cycle of precipitation has been studied using surface rainfall data, radar reflectivity data, and satellite-derived cloudiness and precipitation (Wallace 1975; Dai et al. 1999; Carbone et al. 2002; Carbone and Tuttle, 2008; Parker and Ahijevych, 2007; Matsui et al. 2010 and others). These observations indicate that the summer-time precipitation most of the North America and typically feature late-afternoon precipitation maxima. These diurnal variation of precipitation can also be generally categorized into three different types: 1) afternoon rainfall maxima due to mesoscale and local circulations over the south and east of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, 2) nocturnal rainfall maxima from eastward-propagating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the Lee side of Rocky Mountain regions and 3) afternoon rainfall maxima in the Appalachian Mountains, and then propagate eastward toward the coast. The main objective of this paper is to use a regional cloud-scale model with very high-resolution (i.e., WRF) to examine the WRF ability to simulate diurnal variation of precipitation. Specifically, the study will (1) identify the physical processes responsible to diurnal variation of precipitation, (2) examine the sensitivity of resolution (2, 6, 18, and 30 km) to model simulated diurnal variation of precipitation and (3) identify the relationships between microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Impact of Asian Aerosols on Precipitation Over California: An Observational and Model Based Approach

Dust and pollution emissions from Asia are often transported across the Pacific Ocean to over the western United States. Therefore, it is essential to fully understand the impact of these aerosols on clouds and precipitation forming over the eastern Pacific and western United States, especially during atmospheric river events that account for up to half of California's annual precipitation and can lead to widespread flooding. In order for numerical modeling simulations to accurately represent the present and future regional climate of the western United States, we must account for the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions associated with Asian dust and pollution aerosols. Therefore, we have constructed a detailed study utilizing multi-sensor satellite observations, NOAA-led field campaign measurements, and targeted numerical modeling studies where Asian aerosols interacted with cloud and precipitation processes over the western United States. In particular, we utilize aerosol optical depth retrievals from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) to effectively detect and monitor the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust and pollution. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals are used in assimilating the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in order to provide the model with an accurate representation of the aerosol spatial distribution across the Pacific. We conduct WRF-Chem model simulations of several cold-season atmospheric river events that interacted with Asian aerosols and brought significant precipitation over California during February-March 2011 when the NOAA CalWater field campaign was ongoing. The CalWater field campaign consisted of aircraft and surface measurements of aerosol and precipitation processes that help extensively validate our WRF-Chem model simulations. After validating the capability of the WRF-Chem in realistically simulating the aerosol-cloud precipitation interactions, we conduct sensitivity studies where the AOD is doubled to diagnose whether an increasing concentration of Asian aerosols over the western United States will lead to further impacts on the cloud and precipitation processes over California. We also perform sensitivity studies where the aerosols will be partitioned into dust-only and pollution-only in order to separate the impacts of the differing Asian aerosol species. The results of our WRF-Chem model simulations aim to show that the trans-Pacific transport of Asian aerosols influence the precipitation associated with atmospheric river events that can ultimately impact the regional climate of the western United States. 1 University

Naeger, Aaron R.↗