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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale CFD simulation of biomass fast pyrolysis with a machine learning derived intra-particle model and detailed pyrolysis kinetics

Coupling particle and reactor scale models is as essential as reactor fluid dynamics and particle motion for accurate Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of biomass fast pyrolysis reactors due to intraparticle heat transfer and chemical reactions controlling conversion time and product distributions. Direct online coupling of a particle model with a reactor model is computationally expensive, while offline coupling is case-dependent. In this research, solutions from a series of particle pyrolysis simulations were regressed with Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermoer, this machine learning-derived model predicted the same temperature and conversion profiles compared with particle resolved simulation while the isothermal approach overpredicted the temperature by 130 K and underpredicted the conversion time by 30 s. The ANN model was then integrated into CFD simulations of fluidized bed biomass fast pyrolysis with varied feedstocks via coupling PyTorch and MFiX. The averaged error of simulation predicted bio-oil yields with four feedstocks is 6.4%. This multi-scale approach provides an efficient tool for the coupled particle and reactor scale simulations of biomass pyrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost-constrained adaptive simulations of transient spray combustion in a gas turbine combustor

Predictive high-fidelity simulations of turbulent spray combustion must capture the combined effects of complex chemistry, multiphase evaporating flow and spray-flame interactions to achieve physical accuracy. Finite-rate chemistry (FRC) combined with a realistic chemical mechanism is a combustion model well-suited for this purpose, but has a high computational cost due to the large number and stiffness of transported chemical species. In contrast, flamelet-based models achieve lower cost by transporting a small number of quantities of reduced stiffness, but assumptions regarding local flame topology, boundary conditions and inter-phase coupling limit their physical accuracy. Recently, the Pareto-efficient combustion (PEC) framework was developed to dynamically assign combustion models based on local cost and accuracy metrics in gas-phase reacting flows. In this work, we extend this PEC framework to spray combustion through the rigorous analysis of the multiphase coupling terms in the governing equations. The derivation shows that spray evaporation causes errors in the prediction of species mass fractions for flamelet-based models due to the sensitivity of the local thermo-chemical state to changes in composition caused by fuel vaporization across combustion regimes present in practical spray combustion devices. Sub-model assignment is formulated as a multiple-choice knapsack problem, where computational cost is directly controlled through the fraction of the domain assigned to the FRC sub-model. The extended PEC formulation is applied to the simulation of a realistic rich-quench-lean gas turbine combustor at steady-state conditions, as well as transient operation resulting in lean blow-out (LBO). Analysis of transient simulations during LBO demonstrates the extended PEC formulation’s capacity to dynamically adapt to changing conditions within the combustor. Transient combustor dynamics are shown to approach convergence with limited increases in computational cost, while retaining substantial computational cost reduction compared to monolithic FRC simulations. Through PEC simulations with increasing fractions of the domain assigned to FRC, monolithic flamelet simulations are shown to over-predict flame stability during LBO. Finally, the extended PEC formulation is thus shown to overcome deficiencies of monolithic models by controlling modeling error for multiphase combustion modeling.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of prognosis digital twin in a NAMAC system

The nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system is a comprehensive control system to assist plant operations by furnishing control recommendations to operators. Prognosis digital twin (DT-P) is a critical component in NAMAC for predicting action effects and supporting NAMAC decision-making during normal and accident scenarios. To quantifying and reducing uncertainty of machine-learning-based DT-Ps in multi-step predictions, this work investigates and derives insights from the application of three techniques for optimizing the performance of DT-P by long short-term memory recurrent neural networks, including manual search, sequential model-based optimization, and physics-guided machine learning. Finally, sequential model-based optimization and physics-guide machine learning result in smallest errors when the predicting transients are similar to the training data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanistic modeling of copper corrosions in data center environments

Air-side economizers are increasingly used to take advantage of “free-cooling” in data centers with the intent of reducing the carbon footprint of buildings. However, they can introduce outdoor pollutants to indoor environment of data centers and cause corrosion damage to the information technology equipment. Here, to evaluate the reliability of information technology equipment under various thermal and air-pollution conditions, a mechanistic model based on multi-ion transport and chemical reactions was developed. The model was used to predict Cu corrosion caused by Cl2-containing pollutant mixtures. It also accounted for the effects of temperature (25 °C and 28 °C), relative humidity (50%, 75%, and 95%), and synergism. It also identified higher air temperature as a corrosion barrier and higher relative humidity as a corrosion accelerator, which agreed well with the experimental results. The average root mean square error of the prediction was 13.7 Å. The model can be used to evaluate the thermal guideline for data centers design and operation when Cl2 is present based on pre-established acceptable risk of corrosion in data centers’ environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electron-Affinity Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory: Formalism and Applications to Core-Excited States

The lack of particle-hole attraction and orbital relaxation within time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) lead to extreme errors in the prediction of K-edge X-ray absorption spectra (XAS). We derive a linear-response formalism that uses optimized orbitals of the n - 1-electron system as the reference, building orbital relaxation and a proper hole into the initial density. Here, our approach is an exact generalization of the static-exchange approximation that ameliorates the particle-hole interaction error associated with the adiabatic approximation and reduces errors in TDDFT XAS by orders of magnitude. With a statistical performance of just 0.5 eV root-mean-square error and the same computational scaling as TDDFT under the core-valence separation approximation, we anticipate that this approach will be of great utility in XAS calculations of large systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complexity-calibrated benchmarks for machine learning reveal when prediction algorithms succeed and mislead

Abstract Recurrent neural networks are used to forecast time series in finance, climate, language, and from many other domains. Reservoir computers are a particularly easily trainable form of recurrent neural network. Recently, a “next-generation” reservoir computer was introduced in which the memory trace involves only a finite number of previous symbols. We explore the inherent limitations of finite-past memory traces in this intriguing proposal. A lower bound from Fano’s inequality shows that, on highly non-Markovian processes generated by large probabilistic state machines, next-generation reservoir computers with reasonably long memory traces have an error probability that is at least $$\sim 60\%$$ ∼ 60 % higher than the minimal attainable error probability in predicting the next observation. More generally, it appears that popular recurrent neural networks fall far short of optimally predicting such complex processes. These results highlight the need for a new generation of optimized recurrent neural network architectures. Alongside this finding, we present concentration-of-measure results for randomly-generated but complex processes. One conclusion is that large probabilistic state machines—specifically, large $$\epsilon$$ ϵ -machines—are key to generating challenging and structurally-unbiased stimuli for ground-truthing recurrent neural network architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instrumentation, including eight 915-MHz wind-profiling radars, and surface meteorological stations. The evolution and annual variability of the daytime convective planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) height is investigated using the wind-profiling radars. Three models with different horizontal grid spacing are evaluated: the Rapid Refresh, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, and its nested version. The results are used to assess errors in the prediction of PBL height within the experimental and control versions of the models, with the experimental versions including changes and additions to the model parametrizations developed during the field campaign, and the control version using the parametrizations present in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational version of the models at the start of the project. Results show that the high-resolution models outperform the low-resolution versions, the experimental versions perform better compared with the control versions, model PBL height estimations are more accurate on cloud-free days, and model estimates of the PBL height growth rate are more accurate than model estimates of the rate of decay. Finally, using surface sensors, we assess surface meteorological variables, finding improved surface irradiance and, to a lesser extent, improved 2-m temperature in the experimental version of the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving air leakage prediction of buildings using the fan pressurization method with the Weighted Line of Organic Correlation

In many countries, the fan pressurization method is the most frequently chosen approach for measuring the air leakage of houses. The measurements are usually performed at pressures that far exceed pressures to which buildings are exposed to under normal conditions. A fit of these tests to the power-law formulation allows an extrapolation to data points outside the measured pressure range. With the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) fitting method, the pressure exponent and flow coefficient can be determined. However, the measurement results are highly sensitive to uncertainties induced by external factors like changing wind conditions during the tests, which is neglected by OLS. This may lead to errors in the prediction of flows at lower pressures. The Weighted Line of Organic Correlation (WLOC) is an alternative approach and takes measurement uncertainty into account. In this paper, a statistical analysis of an extensive data set of pressurization measurements has been performed. Both regression techniques have been compared for almost 7500 fan pressurization measurements of six houses in 109 different house leak configurations. The variability in predicting pressure exponent and flow coefficient for both WLOC and OLS regression was analyzed using probability density functions. It was found that the Weighted Line of Organic Correlation significantly decreases the uncertainty in predicting pressure exponent, flow coefficient, and other low-pressure air leakage metrics compared to the Ordinary Least Square fitting. Here, the authors highly recommend the implementation of WLOC in current measurement standards and test equipment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning inversion of gravity data for detection of CO 2 plumes in overlying aquifers

In this work, we developed an effective U-Net based deep learning (DL) model for inversion of surface gravity data on a rectangular grid to predict 2-D high-resolution subsurface CO 2 distribution along a vertical cross-section due to CO 2 leakage through a wellbore within a deep CO 2 storage reservoir. We used synthetic data to model two types of CO 2 leakage scenarios: one CO 2 plume in a shallow aquifer (single plume case), and two plumes present at different depths (double plume case). The 3-D synthetic plume samples were created by sampling among predetermined CO 2 plume depths, saturations, and volumes. The corresponding surface gravity data on a rectangular grid were generated by a 3-D forward model. The U-Net model detected 72% of single-plume samples, and one or both plumes in 75% of double-plume samples. Most of the undetected single plumes have small gravity field strengths below the typical noise level of 5 μGal. This model generated reproducible, reliable predictions with acceptable errors and demonstrated improved spatial resolution over the conventional least-squares inversion. In contrast to the conventional least-squares inversion, which often overestimates the size of its target and underestimates its density, this U-Net model accurately delineated the boundary of a target. Furthermore, this DL inversion detected deep, small, or low saturation CO 2 plumes that are often more difficult to resolve with conventional gravity inversion methods. We note the limitations of this feasibility study, including the use of synthetic data with regular CO 2 plume shapes, and the prediction of a 2-D plume cross-section rather than the full 3-D plume, as well, we recognize the lower detection fraction for double-plume scenarios. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that DL gravity inversion is a promising and potentially superior method to conventional least-squares inversion. Our U-Net based deep learning inversion approach may be adapted for inversion of other types of geophysical data. DL inversion can facilitate near real-time monitoring of geologic carbon sequestration to provide site operators with prompt information about subsurface CO 2 distribution for risk management and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating defect predictions in semiconductors using graph neural networks

First-principles computations reliably predict the energetics of point defects in semiconductors but are constrained by the expense of using large supercells and advanced levels of theory. Machine learning models trained on computational data, especially ones that sufficiently encode defect coordination environments, can be used to accelerate defect predictions. Here, we develop a framework for the prediction and screening of native defects and functional impurities in a chemical space of group IV, III–V, and II–VI zinc blende semiconductors, powered by crystal Graph-based Neural Networks (GNNs) trained on high-throughput density functional theory (DFT) data. Using an innovative approach of sampling partially optimized defect configurations from DFT calculations, we generate one of the largest computational defect datasets to date, containing many types of vacancies, self-interstitials, anti-site substitutions, impurity interstitials and substitutions, as well as some defect complexes. We applied three types of established GNN techniques, namely crystal graph convolutional neural network, materials graph network, and Atomistic Line Graph Neural Network (ALIGNN), to rigorously train models for predicting defect formation energy (DFE) in multiple charge states and chemical potential conditions. We find that ALIGNN yields the best DFE predictions with root mean square errors around 0.3 eV, which represents a prediction accuracy of 98% given the range of values within the dataset, improving significantly on the state-of-the-art. We further show that GNN-based defective structure optimization can take us close to DFT-optimized geometries at a fraction of the cost of full DFT. The current models are based on the semi-local generalized gradient approximation-Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof (PBE) functional but are highly promising because of the correlation of computed energetics and defect levels with higher levels of theory and experimental data, the accuracy and necessity of discovering novel metastable and low energy defect structures at the PBE level of theory before advanced methods could be applied, and the ability to train multi-fidelity models in the future with new data from non-local functionals. The DFT-GNN models enable prediction and screening across thousands of hypothetical defects based on both unoptimized and partially optimized defective structures, helping identify electronically active defects in technologically important semiconductors.

Rahman, Md Habibur (ORCID:000000027705984X)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Frost prediction using machine learning and deep neural network models

This study describes accurate, computationally efficient models that can be implemented for practical use in predicting frost events for point-scale agricultural applications. Frost damage in agriculture is a costly burden to farmers and global food security alike. Timely prediction of frost events is important to reduce the cost of agricultural frost damage and traditional numerical weather forecasts are often inaccurate at the field-scale in complex terrain. In this paper, we developed machine learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of such frost events near Alcalde, NM at the point-scale. ML algorithms investigated include deep neural network, convolution neural networks, and random forest models at lead-times of 6–48 h. Our results show promising accuracy (6-h prediction RMSE = 1.53–1.72°C) for use in frost and minimum temperature prediction applications. Seasonal differences in model predictions resulted in a slight negative bias during Spring and Summer months and a positive bias in Fall and Winter months. Additionally, we tested the model transferability by continuing training and testing using data from sensors at a nearby farm. We calculated the feature importance of the random forest models and were able to determine which parameters provided the models with the most useful information for predictions. We determined that soil temperature is a key parameter in longer term predictions (>24 h), while other temperature related parameters provide the majority of information for shorter term predictions. The model error compared favorable to previous ML based frost studies and outperformed the physically based High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecasting system making our ML-models attractive for deployment toward real-time monitoring of frost events and damage at commercial farming operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting spring green-up across diverse North American grasslands

Vegetation phenology influences many ecosystem and climate processes, such as carbon uptake and energy and water cycles. Thus, understanding drivers of vegetation phenology is crucial for predicting current and future impacts of climate change on ecological systems. Existing models can accurately predict the date of spring green-up in temperate forests but tend to perform poorly in grassland systems. We hypothesize this is because most do not incorporate water availability, a primary limiting factor for grassland plants. In this study, we used long-term datasets of digital imagery from the PhenoCam Network of 43 diverse North American grassland sites (195 site-years) to test existing spring phenology models, as well as develop several new models that incorporate precipitation or soil moisture (53 models). As a result, most of the new models performed substantially better, with the best model requiring sufficient accumulated precipitation followed by warm temperatures to trigger spring onset (root mean square error, RMSE, between predicted and observed dates = 16.0 days). Importantly, the best model performed well across all grassland types using a single set of parameters, from temperate to arid grasslands. Since plants are adapted to their local climates, model performance was further improved when parameters were independently optimized for four separate climate regions (RMSE = 10.4 days). Therefore, both sufficient precipitation and temperature are required for grassland green-up, but optimal thresholds vary by region. Running the top model with projected climate data (representative concentration pathway 8.5) suggests that, depending on the climate region, spring onset will occur up to 12 days earlier within 100 years in temperature-limited sites, but the trend is unclear for precipitation-limited sites (3.5 ± 8.0 days later). This new phenology model improves our ability to understand and predict grassland dynamics, with implications for both current and future ecosystem processes related to carbon and water cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Fundamentally New Coupled Approach to Contact Mechanics via the Dirichlet‐Neumann Schwarz Alternating Method

Contact phenomena are crucial for understanding the behavior of mechanical systems. However, existing computational approaches for simulating mechanical contact often face numerical challenges, such as inaccurate physical predictions, energy conservation errors, and unwanted oscillations. Here, we introduce an alternative technique for simulating dynamic contact based on the non‐overlapping Schwarz alternating method, originally developed for domain decomposition. In multibody contact scenarios, this method treats each body as a separate, non‐overlapping domain and prevents interpenetration using an alternating Dirichlet–Neumann iterative process. This approach has a strong theoretical foundation, eliminates the need for contact constraints, and offers flexibility, making it ideal for multiscale and multiphysics applications. We conducted a numerical comparison between the Schwarz method and traditional methods, such as the Lagrange multiplier and penalty methods, focusing on a benchmark impact problem. Our results indicate that the Schwarz alternating method outperforms traditional methods in several key areas: it provides more accurate predictions for various measurable quantities and demonstrates exceptional energy conservation capabilities. To address unwanted oscillations in contact velocities and forces, we explored various algorithms and stabilization techniques, ultimately opting for the naïve‐stabilized Newmark scheme for its simplicity and effectiveness. Additionally, we validated the efficiency of the Schwarz method in a three‐dimensional impact problem, highlighting its inherent capacity to accommodate different mesh topologies, time‐integration schemes, and time steps for each interacting body.

Schwarz alternating method↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving the modeling of near-wall interphase heat transfer in porous media models of Pebble Bed Reactors

Here, this work aims to improve capabilities for modeling localized effects in porous media models of Pebble Bed Reactors. The wall-channeling effect is the primary local phenomenon of interest in a PBR, where the presence of the reflector wall disrupts the pebble packing, causing the pebbles near the wall to pack less efficiently and creating large void regions. Accurate modeling of the near-wall region is important as it will affect core bypass flow and temperature predictions. Porous media models are commonly used for design scoping and plant-level simulations of PBRs. Although these models have some capabilities to model the near-wall region, the correlations that are available in porous media codes are often inaccurate when a multi-region model is used to discretize the near-wall region. This work employs a high-to-low analysis to study the accuracy of available interphase heat transfer closures. NekRS, a spectral element computational fluid dynamics code, is used to perform Large Eddy Simulations. These LES simulation results are compared to porous media model results from the Pronghorn porous media code. The friction term of the KTA drag closure is first improved, reducing the error in the prediction of the near-wall velocity from over 50% to less than 5%. This is combined with improvements to the form term from previous works to produce a drag closure that is capable of accurately modeling the wall-channeling effect across a variety of flow conditions. The Nusselt number predictions of several heat transfer correlations are compared to the high-fidelity results where it is found that the KTA heat transfer correlation is capable of accurately predicting the local Nusselt numbers that were determined in the high-fidelity simulation. Comparison of the radial solid temperature profiles, however, reveal discrepancies between NekRS and Pronghorn. It is discovered that the implementation of the interphase heat transfer coefficient that exists in many current porous media codes is not valid when local porosities are modeled. Instead, it is suggested that the interphase heat transfer coefficient should be dependent on the local porosity, the Nusselt number, and the local solid surface-to-volume ratio. Implementation of this change produces improvement in the agreement between the results obtained by NekRS and Pronghorn while using the KTA heat transfer correlation.

interphase heat transfer↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward ultra-efficient high-fidelity predictions of wind turbine wakes: Augmenting the accuracy of engineering models with machine learning

This study proposes a novel machine learning (ML) methodology for the efficient and cost-effective prediction of high-fidelity three-dimensional velocity fields in the wake of utility-scale turbines. The model consists of an autoencoder convolutional neural network with U-Net skipped connections, fine-tuned using high-fidelity data from large-eddy simulations (LES). The trained model takes the low-fidelity velocity field cost-effectively generated from the analytical engineering wake model as input and produces the high-fidelity velocity fields. The accuracy of the proposed ML model is demonstrated in a utility-scale wind farm for which datasets of wake flow fields were previously generated using LES under various wind speeds, wind directions, and yaw angles. Comparing the ML model results with those of LES, the ML model was shown to reduce the error in the prediction from 20% obtained from the Gauss Curl hybrid (GCH) model to less than 5%. In addition, the ML model captured the non-symmetric wake deflection observed for opposing yaw angles for wake steering cases, demonstrating a greater accuracy than the GCH model. The computational cost of the ML model is on par with that of the analytical wake model while generating numerical outcomes nearly as accurate as those of the high-fidelity LES.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2026

ML-based Micro-CT SOFC Microstructure Models (from Kent 2026 Microstructural Augmentation paper)

Overview -------------------------- This repository contains datasets from the manuscript **"Enhanced Generalizability to Deep-Learning Quantification of 3D Microstructural Characteristics through Microstructurally Aware Augmentation of Scarce Data"** (*William F. Kent, Rochan Bajpai, Rachel C. Kurchin, William K. Epting, Harry W. Abernathy, Paul A. Salvador. Submitted 2026*). The methods are also described in the dissertation **Data Intensive Analysis of Solid Oxide Cell Microstructures** (*Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, 2025*). The datasets here are trained convolutional neural network (CNN) models for predicting key microstructural properties of solid oxide cell (SOC) electrodes from low-res, 2-channel 3D images, as well as some helpful code. The parameters for input images are provided in the paper. Sample data is provided in the file `Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples` - that particular data was used to train `anode_all_aug.pth` and will work most accurately with that model. Please familiarize yourself with all caveats on accuracy and applicability, as detailed in the associated paper. Usage -------------------------- The basic usage is as follows, assuming `model_fn` is the path to the .pth file, and `X` is 2-channel input image(s) of the proper dimensions (either one image of shape `[2,12,24,24]`, or a batch of N input images of shape `[N,2,12,24,24]`): from CNN_inferencer import load_model_for_inference model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) y_predicted = model(X) The model object automatically handles input scaling and output de-scaling based on the way the models were trained - in other words, pass in a 2-channel micro-CT image, and it will output microstructural property values in real units. ## Other model object attributes Note that model has useful attributes other than its forward pass model(X). * `model.output_descaler` - returns the output descaler object. Model does the de-scaling when generating inferences, but you may want to re-use this de-scaler on other values to e.g. compare predictions to ground truth from already-scaled training data. * `model.prop_names` - Gives the property names of the predicted y values, in order. Only exists if there's an output scaler as part of the model object, which there will be in the models provided here. ## Usage with sample data Here is a short script to use with the included sample data. from CNN_inferencer import display_predictions, load_model_for_inference, calculate_mape, parity_plot import h5py import numpy as np model_fn = 'anode_all_aug.pth' data_fn = 'Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples.h5' N_samples = 200 figure_outdir = '.' model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) with h5py.File(data_fn,'r') as f: XX = f['X'] #These are the 2-channel 3D images yy = f['y'] #These are the ground-truth microstructural properties, but they have been scaled for training - need to de-scale below N = XX.shape[0] #How many images total in the input data file #Run inferences on N_samples random samples from XX. #Run in a batch, much more efficient than one at a time. ii = np.random.choice(N,N_samples,replace=False) ii.sort() y_pred = model(XX[ii]) #Get the original/true (but normalized/scaled) values from the training dataset... #Because they were normalized, they are not in real units yet. So let's also de-scale them using model.output_scaler. y_true = model.output_scaler.transform(yy[ii]) #Let's display actual values for just 5 random ones for i in np.random.choice(N_samples,5,replace=False): display_predictions(y_true[i], y_pred[i], model.prop_names) #Make parity plots for each property (ground truth vs predicted values) #Also label each plot with the mean abs. percent error (MAPE) of the predicted values for i,key in enumerate(model.prop_names): mape = calculate_mape(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i]) parity_plot(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i], figure_outdir, key, extra_title=f' ({mape:.2f}% MAPE)')

3D microstructure↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction challenge: First principles simulation of the ultrafast electron diffraction spectrum of cyclobutanone

Computer simulation has long been an essential partner of ultrafast experiments, allowing the assignment of microscopic mechanistic detail to low-dimensional spectroscopic data. However, the ability of theory to make a priori predictions of ultrafast experimental results is relatively untested. Herein, as a part of a community challenge, we attempt to predict the signal of an upcoming ultrafast photochemical experiment using state-of-the-art theory in the context of preexisting experimental data. Specifically, we employ ab initio Ehrenfest with collapse to a block mixed quantum–classical simulations to describe the real-time evolution of the electrons and nuclei of cyclobutanone following excitation to the 3s Rydberg state. The gas-phase ultrafast electron diffraction (GUED) signal is simulated for direct comparison to an upcoming experiment at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Laboratory. Following initial ring-opening, dissociation via two distinct channels is observed: the C3 dissociation channel, producing cyclopropane and CO, and the C2 channel, producing CH2CO and C2H4. Direct calculations of the GUED signal indicate how the ring-opened intermediate, the C2 products, and the C3 products can be discriminated in the GUED signal. We also report an a priori analysis of anticipated errors in our predictions: without knowledge of the experimental result, which features of the spectrum do we feel confident we have predicted correctly, and which might we have wrong?

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracing and Forecasting Metabolic Indices of Cancer Patients Using Patient-Specific Deep Learning Models

We develop a patient-specific dynamical system model from the time series data of the cancer patient’s metabolic panel taken during the period of cancer treatment and recovery. The model consists of a pair of stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks and a fully connected neural network in each unit. It is intended to be used by physicians to trace back and look forward at the patient’s metabolic indices, to identify potential adverse events, and to make short-term predictions. When the model is used in making short-term predictions, the relative error in every index is less than 10% in the L ∞ norm and less than 6.3% in the L 1 norm in the validation process. Once a master model is built, the patient-specific model can be calibrated through transfer learning. As an example, we obtain patient-specific models for four more cancer patients through transfer learning, which all exhibit reduced training time and a comparable level of accuracy. This study demonstrates that this modeling approach is reliable and can deliver clinically acceptable physiological models for tracking and forecasting patients’ metabolic indices.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗