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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biodiesel production from engineered sugarcane lipids under uncertain feedstock compositions: Process design and techno-economic analysis

In this study, different process schemes were designed and evaluated for biodiesel production from engineered cane lipids with uncertain fatty acid compositions. Four different process schemes were compared under (i) thermal glycerolysis and (ii) enzymatic glycerolysis approaches. These schemes were based on the biodiesel yield and economic indicators such as the net present value (NPV) and the minimum selling price (MSP) of biodiesel. A scheme with polar lipid separation under thermal glycerolysis resulted in the maximum NPV ($\$96.5$ million) and minimum MSP ($\$1107$ /ton biodiesel), respectively. Through local sensitivity analysis, it was concluded that the cane lipid percentage is the most significant factor influencing process economics. A conjoint analysis of the lipid procurement price and cane lipid percent suggested that 15% cane lipids with a low lipid procurement price ($\$0.536$ /kg) results in a positive NPV. When the cane lipid price is higher (> $\$0.80$ /kg), a 20% lipid content should be considered to achieve a positive NPV. At 20% cane lipids, the worst-case and best-case scenarios were evaluated by analyzing the interplay of the three most important parameters, Here, the best-case scenario revealed that the minimum NPV under any process scheme could yield more than $\$100$ million (or MSP: $\$0.80$ /L), and the worst-case analysis showed that losses incurred by the plant could be as high as 80 million (MSP: $\$1.36$ /L). A Monte Carlo simulation indicated that there is a 70% chance of the plant being profitable (NPV > 0).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technoeconomic assessment of hydrogen cogeneration via high temperature steam electrolysis with a light-water reactor

Increased electricity production from renewable energy resources, coupled with low natural gas (NG) prices, has caused existing light-water reactors (LWRs) to experience diminishing returns from the electricity market. This reduction in revenue is forcing LWRs to consider alternative revenue streams, such as introduction hydrogen production or desalination, to remain profitable. This paper performs a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) regarding the viability of retrofitting existing pressurized-water reactors (PWRs) to produce green hydrogen (H 2 ) via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). Such an integration would allow nuclear facilities to expand into additional markets that may be more profitable in the long term and eliminate CO 2 emissions from the hydrogen production process. Here, to accommodate such an integration, a detailed single market levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and multimarket analyses were conducted of HTSE process operation, requirements, costing, and flexibility. Alongside this costing analysis, market analyses were conducted on the electric and hydrogen markets in the PJM interconnect. Utilizing a novel stochastic, dispatch optimization approach results suggest that a positive gain is achievable, and by operating in multiple markets, the nuclear facility can avoid the sale of electricity during times of low electricity market pricing, while maintaining the ability to capitalize on the high electricity market pricing. It should be noted that the analysis conducted is a differential cash flow analysis and, as such, does not present profit levels. LCOH analysis results demonstrate the potential exists to produce hydrogen at a cost as low as $1.20/kg. This price is lower than traditional steam methane reforming (SMR) allowing nuclear based hydrogen production to disrupt the existing hydrogen production market.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The interaction of wholesale electricity market structures under futures with decarbonization policy goals: A complexity conundrum

Competitive wholesale electricity markets can help facilitate energy system decarbonization by incentivizing investments in clean energy technologies that meet evolving system needs. We explore market structure impacts on generator operations and deployment by risk-averse, heterogeneous investor firms using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite - Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Here we apply clean energy targets of 45%-100% by 2035 considering energy, ancillary services, capacity, and clean energy credit products and pricing and eligibility rules. Results highlight a complexity conundrum, whereby finding the "right" market design to achieve decarbonization goals and avoid unintended consequences can be a highly-nuanced, non-incremental challenge. Carefully designed energy-only markets can achieve the same clean energy targets as capacity market structures but with different revenue and profitability outcomes. Operating reserve demand curve-based scarcity pricing can substitute capacity markets for similar deployment outcomes. Carbon pricing alone is most effective at achieving decarbonization levels at low clean energy targets, and clean energy credit markets and carbon pricing are substitutionary at high clean energy targets. Restricting technology participation in capacity and operating reserve markets can impact deployment and operations, even for nonrestricted technologies. Adding an inertia product with fast frequency response yields insufficient provision at high clean energy targets, but work is needed to understand frequency requirements and capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking thermal energy storage cost for industrial process heat

Process heat accounts for roughly half of industrial energy demand, and currently 95% of process heat is derived from the combustion of natural gas, oil, and coal. Electrification of industrial heating could be an alternative, potentially expanding locations suitable for manufacturing; however, industrial facility owners may desire energy storage to stabilize energy costs. In this work, the economic benefits of pairing thermal storage with electrified process heat to reduce the average price paid for energy are analyzed. Cost savings focus on energy arbitrage, or leveraging flexible energy pricing schemes, alone. The cost of natural gas combustion across decades (2019-2060) is compared to the costs of electricity and thermal energy storage in four United States Independent System Operator (ISO) regions. Systems installed today may not yield positive net present value (NPV) compared to the use of natural gas. However, using estimated electricity prices, systems installed in 2030 using arbitrage alone could be profitable when compared to natural gas in some regions of the U.S. Furthermore, if capital expenditures could be reduced by 50% for sensible thermal storage systems by 2030, profitable systems are found across all regions. This implies that electrification of industrial process heat, when paired with inexpensive thermal energy storage systems, could be less expensive than brownfield natural gas systems, using arbitrage as the only source of revenue and without a dependency on any future policy drivers such as pricing externalities that could further incentivize the electrification of industrial process heat.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electric-vehicle battery second-life and recycling pathways: How economics depend on chemistry, processing, and application

We assess the economics of repurposing and recycling electric vehicle (EV) batteries by estimating the maximum acquisition price repurposers and recyclers could pay for used EV packs across cathode chemistries, first-life conditions, second-life applications, and recycling processes. We develop a novel open-source process-based cost model of a UL-1974-certified repurposing facility and leverage battery degradation models to estimate the maximum acquisition price repurposers could pay for used EV batteries while producing second-life battery energy storage systems with life-adjusted costs equivalent to new systems. We compare these maximum price estimates to maximum prices for recyclers based on cost and revenue estimates from the EverBatt model. We find that repurposing is more economical than recycling for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, due to their relatively long life and low value materials; recycling is generally more economical than repurposing for lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) batteries, due to their shorter life and higher value materials; and the economics for lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries depend more heavily on first life retirement conditions and second life application intensity. These results suggest an overall strategy: reuse LFP, recycle NCA, and sort NMC into recycling or repurposing pathways based on state of health and second-life application.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the horizon of bio-naphtha beyond gasoline blend: property characterization and conversion opportunity assessment through technoeconomic and life-cycle analyses

Bio-naphtha, a common by-product of biorefineries, is expected to experience substantial growth in supply due to increasing demands for renewable diesel and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF). However, demand for bio-naphtha itself as a gasoline blendstock is limited because of the electrification of light-duty vehicles. This work investigated valorization opportunities for bio-naphtha from catalytic fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal liquefaction, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and hydrotreated esters and fatty acids pathways. These opportunities include producing polymer-grade olefin via steam cracking, SAF via steam cracking followed by olefin oligomerization, and renewable aromatics benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) and hydrogen via catalytic reforming. Process models were developed in Aspen Plus V14 and Aspen HYSYS V14 to calculate the mass and energy balances for each conversion step. Technoeconomic assessment and life-cycle analysis were conducted to evaluate the minimum fuel/product selling price, conversion cost, and life-cycle CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction. Technoeconomic assessment results suggest a minimum fuel/product selling price as low as $1.9/kg of olefins, $6.30/gal of gasoline-equivalent SAF, and $1.2/kg of BTX without any incentives. For all pathways, these prices are dominated by bio-naphtha feedstock costs, which account for at least 76% of the total cost. Compared with petroleum baselines, bio-naphtha-derived SAF, olefins, and BTX can achieve significant CO2e emission reductions from the use of renewable carbon resources. The results of life-cycle analysis and subsequent technoeconomic assessment, incorporating carbon credits, indicate the economic viability of using bio-naphtha for polymer-grade olefin and BTX production, with product costs comparable to market prices.

Xu, Shuang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Economic dispatch for electricity merchant with energy storage and wind plant: State of charge based decision making considering market impact and uncertainties

Here this paper investigates how the market impact of electricity merchants and uncertainty of wind generation affect their co-optimized scheduling policy, specifically for merchants who have both energy storage and wind plants. In the existing literature, merchants' trading actions are usually assumed not to affect market prices; however, a large-scale energy storage merchant's actions can affect market prices. To this end, we approximate the electricity price by a linear function of the quantity of power traded by the merchant in the reward function to achieve decision-making incorporating the market impact. This paper utilizes the dynamic programming approach to analyze merchants' optimal multi-period decision-making incorporating market impact, uncertain wind generation, and energy storage constraints. First, our results demonstrate that for a merchant with co-located energy storage facilities and wind power plants, the energy storage's feasible state of charge (SOC) range can be segmented into four possible sub-ranges by three analytically developed SOC reference points. The unique optimal trading decision can be achieved by comparing the current energy inventory and the SOC references of the next period. Second, our results show that market impact and uncertainties substantially change the optimal storage scheduling policy by impacting the values of the reference points. To mitigate the negative effect of the merchant's market impact on buying and selling actions, the merchant may reduce the amount of generating or pumping electricity each period to maximize profit. Moreover, we identify and investigate the trade-off between market price and transaction quantity. Our findings provide co-optimized scheduling guidance for electricity merchants with co-located energy storage and renewable power plants systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential Economic Values of Low-Vapor-Pressure Gasoline-Range Bio-Blendstocks: Property Estimation, and Blending Optimization

Adding non-traditional blendstocks derived from biomass into gasoline has gained renewed interest since it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially enhance fuel properties and boost engine efficiencies. A competitive bio-blendstock candidate should have either lower prices or superior properties or both relative to conventional gasoline blending components. Gasoline is a mixture of hundreds compounds specified by properties rather than compositions. The addition of bio-blendstocks, most likely oxygenates, will modify the property mixing rules due to the non-ideal interactions between polar and nonpolar components. This paper presents an equation-of-state-based model for predicting Reid vapor pressure, reduced order non-linear property blending models for computing key properties of final gasoline products, and a blending optimization approach to identify key economic drivers. This paper also evaluates the economic values of bio-blendstocks to petroleum refiners using those models. In additional to ethanol, six low-vapor-pressure bio-blendstock candidates were evaluated: i-propanol, n-propanol, i-butanol, diisobutylene, cyclopentanone, and a mixture of furans. Reid vapor pressure, distillation temperatures, and octane numbers were identified as the key economic drivers of adding bio-blendstock. The economic values of those bio-blendstocks range from 2.22 to 4.00 US dollar per gasoline gallon equivalent in 2013 to 2017 5-year averaged price basis. The bio-blendstocks with higher octane numbers may have higher economic values. The uncertainties in property predictions may lead to roughly 15% deviation in the economic value evaluation.

Jiang, Yuan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Designing a transactive electric vehicle agent with customer’s participation preference

The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) and their inherent flexibility in charging timings make them an asset to improve grid performance. In contrast to direct control by a utility or autonomous price-based charging, the transactive control framework not only provides benefits to both grid and customers but also ensures customer autonomy. In this work, we design a transactive electric vehicle (TEV) agent that incorporates the EV owner’s willingness to trade-off between savings and amenity in form of a slider, where the EV owner’s amenity is characterized as vehicle readiness. Further, a privacy-preserving bidding formulation is proposed that also represents the customer’s transactive preference. A transactive market mechanism is discussed that integrates the TEV Agents into the local retail market and reconciles with the current day-ahead and real-time market structure. It is demonstrated that the proposed slider is able to provide a preferred trade-off between savings and amenity to individual customers. At the same time, the market mechanism is shown to successfully reduce both peak prices and peak demand. A comparative investigation of V1G and V2G technologies with respect to the battery prices is also discussed. It reveals that the V2G does not offer significant additional benefits with current battery prices, but could be promising if battery costs decline in the future.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Economic evaluation of variable renewable energy participation in U.S. ancillary services markets

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is not yet meaningfully participating in U.S. ancillary services (AS) markets. VRE participation in AS markets could provide a new source of revenue for VRE resource owners to offset declining energy and capacity values and a new tool for power system operators to address emerging system constraints. This paper uses a price-taker dispatch model and historical prices to estimate the economic value of standalone and hybrid (battery-paired) VRE participation in AS markets, from the resource owner and electricity system perspectives, in each of the seven U.S. independent system operator and regional transmission organization (ISO/RTO) markets where ancillary service prices are set. Across ISO/RTO markets, average (2015–2019) simulated incremental revenues from power regulation market participation were 0.0–2.9 USD/MWh (+0–15% of revenue without participation) for standalone VRE owners and 1–33 USD/MWh (+1–69%) for hybrid VRE owners. However, ISO/RTO reserve markets are relatively thin and have the potential to become saturated by energy storage projects that are currently in ISO/RTO interconnection queues. In most markets, standalone and hybrid VRE could provide power regulation reserves during periods with high power regulation prices, suggesting that VRE participation in AS markets could have high system value. The analysis highlights the relevance of separate upward and downward power regulation products and indicates that ISOs/RTOs might consider initially focusing on enabling hybrid VRE provision of AS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Filling the cellulosic bio-economy gap by utilizing a wedge approach combined with stakeholder collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. Here, the role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expanding market opportunities: cogeneration strategies for integrated PWR and thermal energy storage systems

We assess the economic viability of nuclear cogeneration by investigating three different modes—fixed dispatch, fully flexible dispatch, and flexible dispatch with minimum heat supply requirements. The analysis focuses on an existing pressurized water reactor (PWR) integrated with thermal energy storage (TES). Heat production costs are estimated under these modes for two U.S. electricity markets: the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland Interconnection (PJM). A sensitivity analysis examines profitability at varying heat market prices. Results indicate that fixed heat dispatch inflates heat production costs, often rendering projects economically feasible only at higher heat price levels. Fully-flexible dispatch lowers heat production costs by an average of 43 % compared to fixed dispatch. However, the current 30 % thermal dispatch limit may be insufficient to serve high baseline industrial demands cost‐effectively; higher maximum dispatch rates could enhance project economics. Markets with higher and more volatile electricity prices (e.g., ERCOT) offer greater total energy sales potential (i.e., heat and electricity), but also increase opportunity costs when heat production scheduling restrictions are imposed. In contrast, lower-price, less volatile markets (e.g., PJM) experience smaller impacts from such constraints and provide greater flexibility in accommodating varying cogeneration modes. In conclusion, these findings provide a framework to guide nuclear plant operators in aligning cogeneration strategies with industrial process requirements and electricity market conditions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of water valuation metrics: Supporting sustainable water use in manufacturing

In the manufacturing sector, water has been often considered too cheap to conserve. Such thinking relies on water valuations that limit the value of water to the price paid. Using such simple methods, the share of water cost to total manufacturing cost is significantly small, <3%. As a result, conserving water and enabling technology uptake is difficult to justify economically and slow to advance, hindering progress toward sustainable water use. However, the value of water to a manufacturer is far greater than the price paid. Valuations such as the true cost of water consider the additional in-plant treatment and energy costs and have been gaining greater traction in the manufacturing sector. However, true cost alone still undervalues water by not accounting for economic and social costs related to scarcity and environmental externalities. This paper makes the case and presents a framework for valuing manufacturing water beyond the price paid and the true cost. The proposed fuller valuation of manufacturing water takes into account the internal and opportunity costs associated with the realization of water risks. The paper follows with a review of a wide range of water valuation metrics, both at the specific industry level and regional/economy-wide level. The use of various valuation metrics incorporating the relationship between the change in value with change in water use, such as marginal value of water, shadow price, and elasticity at the specific industry level, has been limited in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Further, a limited number of studies exist on data-intensive subjective evaluation techniques such as computable general equilibrium modeling and input-output modeling for regional water valuation. After reviewing water value metrics, several recent case studies from manufacturers from the literature are presented to illustrate both the promise and challenges of a fuller valuation of water as proposed here. Some large multinational corporations have moved toward assessing the value of water via supply chain sustainability initiatives, environmental profit and loss accounting, estimating risk-adjusted values of water, hydro-economic modeling, natural capital asset valuation, and developing value chain indices. This paper provides policymakers and technology developers a framework for monetizing water value beyond its true cost and current metrics. If adopted, such fuller water valuations can help make the business case for the development and deployment of cost-effective water-conserving technologies, thereby improving the sustainability of the manufacturing sector with respect to water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biofuel Options for Marine Applications: Technoeconomic and Life-Cycle Analyses

This study performed technoeconomic and life-cycle analyses to assess the economic feasibility and emission benefits and tradeoffs of various biofuel production pathways as an alternative to conventional marine fuels. We analyzed production pathways for (1) Fischer-Tropsch diesel from biomass and cofeeding biomass with natural gas or coal, (2) renewable diesel via hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids from yellow grease and cofeeding yellow grease with heavy oil, and (3) bio-oil via fast pyrolysis of low-ash woody feedstock. We also developed a new version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) marine fuel module for the estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions of conventional and biobased marine fuels. The alternative fuels considered have a minimum fuel selling price between 2.36 and 4.58 $/heavy fuel oil gallon equivalent (HFOGE), and all exhibit improved life-cycle GHG emissions compared to heavy fuel oil (HFO), with reductions ranging from 40 to 93%. The alternative fuels also exhibit reductions in sulfur oxides and particulate matter emissions. Additionally, when compared with marine gas oil and liquified natural gas, they perform favorably across most emission categories except for cases where carbon and sulfur emissions are increased by the cofed fossil feedstocks. The pyrolysis bio-oil offers the most promising marginal CO2 abatement cost at less than $100/tonne CO2e for HFO prices >$1.09/HFOGE followed by Fischer-Tropsch diesel from biomass and natural gas pathways, which fall below $100/tonne CO2e for HFO prices >$2.25/HFOGE. Pathways that cofeed fossil feedstocks with biomass do not perform as well for marginal CO2 abatement cost, particularly at low HFO prices. This study indicates that biofuels could be a cost-effective means of reducing GHG, sulfur oxide, and particulate matter emissions from the maritime shipping industry and that cofeeding biomass with natural gas could be a practical approach to smooth a transition to biofuels by reducing alternative fuel costs while still lowering GHG emissions, although marginal CO2 abatement costs are less favorable for the fossil cofeed pathways.

Greenhouse gas, life cycle assessment, techno-econ↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast

The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which constrain hydropower production). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most. Here, we investigate how climate change could alter interregional electricity market dynamics on the West Coast, including the potential for hydroclimatic changes in one region (e.g. Pacific Northwest (PNW)) to “spill over” and cause price and reliability risks in another (e.g. California). We find that the most salient hydroclimatic risks for the PNW power system are changes in streamflow, while risks for the California system are driven primarily by changes in summer air temperatures, especially extreme heat events that increase peak system demand. Altered timing and amounts of hydropower production in the PNW do alter summer power deliveries into California but show relatively modest potential to impact prices and reliability there. Instead, it is future climate conditions (extreme heat) in California that may exert a stronger significant influence on prices and reliability in the PNW, especially if California continues to rely on its northern neighbor for imported power to meet higher summer demands.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Critically assessing sodium-ion technology roadmaps and scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries have garnered notable attention as a potentially low-cost alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which have experienced supply shortages and price volatility for key minerals. Here we assess their techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a modelling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected sodium-ion and lithium-ion price trends across over 6,000 scenarios while varying Na-ion technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration and learning rates. Assuming that substantial progress can be made along technology roadmaps via targeted research and development, we identify several sodium-ion pathways that might reach cost-competitiveness with low-cost lithium-ion variants in the 2030s. In addition, we show that timelines are highly sensitive to movements in critical minerals supply chains—namely that of lithium, graphite and nickel. Our modelled outcomes suggest that being price advantageous against low-cost lithium-ion variants in the near term is challenging and increasing sodium-ion energy densities to decrease materials intensity is among the most impactful ways to improve competitiveness.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗