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At least 289 records · Page 16

The impact damped harmonic oscillator in free decay

The impact-damped oscillator in free decay is studied by using time history solutions. A large range of oscillator amplitude is covered. The amount of damping is correlated with the behavior of the impacting mass. There are three behavior regimes: (1) a low amplitude range with less than one impact per cycle and very low damping, (2) a useful middle amplitude range with a finite number of impacts per cycle, and (3) a high amplitude range with an infinite number of impacts per cycle and progressively decreasing damping. For light damping the impact damping in the middle range is: (1) proportional to impactor mass, (2) additive to proportional damping, (3) a unique function of vibration amplitude, (4) proportional to 1-epsilon, where epsilon is the coefficient of restitution, and (5) very roughly inversely proportional to amplitude. The system exhibits jump phenomena and period doublings. An impactor with 2 percent of the oscillator's mass can produce a loss factor near 0.1.

Brown, G. V.↗

The impact damped harmonic oscillator in free decay

The impact-damped oscillator in free decay is studied by using time history solutions. A large range of oscillator amplitude is covered. The amount of damping is correlated with the behavior of the impacting mass. There are three behavior regimes: (1) a low amplitude range with less than one impact per cycle and very low damping, (2) a useful middle amplitude range with a finite number of impacts per cycle, and (3) a high amplitude range with an infinite number of impacts per cycle and progressively decreasing damping. For light damping the impact damping in the middle range is: (1) proportional to impactor mass, (2) additive to proportional damping, (3) a unique function of vibration amplitude, (4) proportional to 1-epsilon, where epsilon is the coefficient of restitution, and (5) very roughly inversely proportional to amplitude. The system exhibits jump phenomena and period doublings. An impactor with 2 percent of the oscillator's mass can produce a loss factor near 0.1.

Brown, G. V.↗

Power flow analysis of two coupled plates with arbitrary characteristics

In the last progress report (Feb. 1988) some results were presented for a parametric analysis on the vibrational power flow between two coupled plate structures using the mobility power flow approach. The results reported then were for changes in the structural parameters of the two plates, but with the two plates identical in their structural characteristics. Herein, limitation is removed. The vibrational power input and output are evaluated for different values of the structural damping loss factor for the source and receiver plates. In performing this parametric analysis, the source plate characteristics are kept constant. The purpose of this parametric analysis is to determine the most critical parameters that influence the flow of vibrational power from the source plate to the receiver plate. In the case of the structural damping parametric analysis, the influence of changes in the source plate damping is also investigated. The results obtained from the mobility power flow approach are compared to results obtained using a statistical energy analysis (SEA) approach. The significance of the power flow results are discussed together with a discussion and a comparison between the SEA results and the mobility power flow results. Furthermore, the benefits derived from using the mobility power flow approach are examined.

Cuschieri, J. M.↗

Fatigue characterization of advanced carbon-carbon composites

Response of quasi-isotropic laminates of SiC coated Carbon-Carbon (C/C) composites under flexural fatigue are investigated at room temperature. Virgin as well as mission cycled specimens are tested to study the effects of thermal and pressure cycling on the fatigue performance of C/C. Tests were conducted in three point bending with a stress ratio of 0.2 and frequency of 1 Hz. Fatigue strength of C/C has been found to be considerably high - approximately above 85 percent of the ultimate flexural strength. The fatigue strength appears to be decreasing with the increase in the number of mission cycling of the specimens. This lower strength with the mission cycled specimens is attributed to the loss of interfacial bond strength due to thermal and pressure cycling of the material. C/C is also found to be highly sensitive to the applied stress level during cyclic loading, and this sensitivity is observed to increase with the mission cycling. Weibull characterization on the fatigue data has been performed, and the wide scatter in the Weibull distribution is discussed. Fractured as well as untested specimens were C-scanned, and the progressive damage growth during fatigue is presented.

Mahfuz, Hassan↗

The ISS 2B PVTCS Ammonia Leak: An Operational History

In 2006, the Photovoltaic Thermal Control System (PVTCS) for the International Space Station's 2B power channel began leaking ammonia at a rate of approximately 1.5lbm/year (out of a starting approximately 53lbm system ammonia mass). Initially, the operations strategy was "feed the leak," a strategy successfully put into action via Extra Vehicular Activity during the STS‐134 mission. During this mission the system was topped off with ammonia piped over from a separate thermal control system. This recharge was to have allowed for continued power channel operation into 2014 or 2015, at which point another EVA would have been required. Without these periodic EVAs to refill the 2B coolant system, the channel would eventually leak enough fluid as to risk pump cavitation and system failure, resulting in the loss of the 2B power channel - the most critical of the Space Station's 8 power channels. In mid‐2012, the leak rate increased to approximately 5lbm/year. Once discovered, an EVA was planned and executed within a 5 week timeframe to drastically alter the architecture of the PVTCS via connection to a dormant thermal control system not intended to be utilized as anything other than spare components. The purpose of this rerouting of the TCS was to increase system volume and to isolate the photovoltaic radiator, thought to be the likely leak source. This EVA was successfully executed on November 1st, 2012 and left the 2B PVTCS in a configuration where the system was now being adequately cooled via a totally different radiator than what the system was designed to utilize. Unfortunately, data monitoring over the next several months showed that the isolated radiator was not leaking, and the system itself continued to leak steadily until May 9th, 2013. It was on this day that the ISS crew noticed the visible presence of ammonia crystals escaping from the 2B channel's truss segment, signifying a rapid acceleration of the leak from 5lbm/year to 5lbm/day. Within 48 hours of the crew noticing the leak, an EVA was in progress to replace the coolant pump - the only other replaceable leak source. This paper will explore the management of the 2B PVTCS leak from the operations perspective. It will discuss the methodology of performing the STS‐134 refill, the considerations and contingency plans which went into the architectural overhaul of the system in 2012, and the unprecedented effort which went into the EVA response to the visible leak of May 2013. In particular the paper will focus on the techniques utilized by flight controllers to monitor the system health and to respond to such instances as the rapid May 2013 leak by putting the electrical system in a safe configuration for loss of cooling, and will use recorded telemetry of these events to describe system response to EVA crew and ground actions. It will discuss the innovative design for redundancy of the integrated truss structure's cooling systems which allowed for this leak to be managed with minimal impact to other ISS operations and electrical services, contrasted against the real unintended operations consequences of utilizing the flexibility of the spacecraft's design in this manner. The paper will discuss how the training of the crew and flight controller personnel has adapted to the changing architecture of the power system and the unpredictable nature of the 2B leak.

Vareha, Anthony↗

Stellar winds and magnetic fields in the helium peculiar stars

This note discusses the consequences of the interaction of radiatively driven mass loss with magnetic fields in upper-main-sequence helium-peculiar stars. The field constrains mass loss to occur in narrow cones above the magnetic poles. These jets can explain the observed behavior of UV resonance lines in the helium-peculiar stars, especially the sn and helium-rich stars. Suppression of mass outflow at the magnetic equator produces a region in which radiatively driven diffusive mass transport can levitate helium in the hottest stars, producing helium enrichment of the atmosphere. In the cooler stars, the surface becomes progressively more helium poor.

Shore, Steven N.↗

The Remarkable 2003-2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s

The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the 40-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly two months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with two previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged mid-winter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over two standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (seven in the past six years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during six of the past seven years, with five having much lower than usual potential for PSC formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002 and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of five of the last seven years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every approximately 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

Effect of low air velocities on thermal homeostasis and comfort during exercise at space station operational temperature and humidity

The effectiveness of different low air velocities in maintaining thermal comfort and homeostasis during exercise at space station operational temperature and humidity was investigated. Five male subjects exercised on a treadmill for successive ten minute periods at 60, 71, and 83 percent of maximum oxygen consumption at each of four air velocities, 30, 50, 80, and 120 ft/min, at 22 C and 62 percent relative humidity. No consistent trends or statistically significant differences between air velocities were found in body weight loss, sweat accumulation, or changes in rectal, skin, and body temperatures. Occurrence of the smallest body weight loss at 120 ft/min, the largest sweat accumulation at 30 ft/min, and the smallest rise in rectal temperature and the greatest drop in skin temperature at 120 ft/min all suggested more efficient evaporative cooling at the highest velocity. Heat storage at all velocities was evidenced by increased rectal and body temperatures; skin temperatures declined or increased only slightly. Body and rectal temperature increases corresponded with increased perception of warmth and slight thermal discomfort as exercise progressed. At all air velocities, mean thermal perception never exceeded warm and mean discomfort, greatest at 30 ft/min, was categorized at worst as uncomfortable; sensation of thermal neutrality and comfort returned rapidly after cessation of exercise. Suggestions for further elucidation of the effects of low air velocities on thermal comfort and homeostasis include larger numbers of subjects, more extensive skin temperature measurements and more rigorous analysis of the data from this study.

Beumer, Ronald J.↗

Hawaii Ocean Mixing Experiment: Program Summary

It is becoming apparent that insufficient mixing occurs in the pelagic ocean to maintain the large scale thermohaline circulation. Observed mixing rates fall a factor of ten short of classical indices such as Munk's "Abyssal Recipe." The growing suspicion is that most of the mixing in the sea occurs near topography. Exciting recent observations by Polzin et al., among others, fuel this speculation. If topographic mixing is indeed important, it must be acknowledged that its geographic distribution, both laterally and vertically, is presently unknown. The vertical distribution of mixing plays a critical role in the Stommel Arons model of the ocean interior circulation. In recent numerical studies, Samelson demonstrates the extreme sensitivity of flow in the abyssal ocean to the spatial distribution of mixing. We propose to study the topographic mixing problem through an integrated program of modeling and observation. We focus on tidally forced mixing as the global energetics of this process have received (and are receiving) considerable study. Also, the well defined frequency of the forcing and the unique geometry of tidal scattering serve to focus the experiment design. The Hawaiian Ridge is selected as a study site. Strong interaction between the barotropic tide and the Ridge is known to take place. The goals of the Hawaiian Ocean Mixing Experiment (HOME) are to quantify the rate of tidal energy loss to mixing at the Ridge and to identify the mechanisms by which energy is lost and mixing generated. We are challenged to develop a sufficiently comprehensive picture that results can be generalized from Hawaii to the global ocean. To achieve these goals, investigators from five institutions have designed HOME, a program of historic data analysis, modeling and field observation. The Analysis and Modeling efforts support the design of the field experiments. As the program progresses, a global model of the barotropic (depth independent) tide, and two models of the baroclinic (depth varying) tide, all validated with near-Ridge data, will be applied, to reveal the mechanisms of tidal energy conversion along the Ridge, and allow spatial and temporal integration of the rate of conversion. Field experiments include a survey to identify "hot spots" of enhanced mixing and barotropic to baroclinic conversion, a Nearfield study identifying the dominant mechanisms responsible for topographic mixing, and a Farfield program which quantifies the barotropic energy flux convergence at the Ridge and the flux divergence associated with low mode baroclinic waves radiation. The difference is a measure of the tidal power available for mixing at the Ridge. Field work is planned from years 2000 through 2002, with analysis and modeling efforts extending through early 2006. If successful, HOME will yield an understanding of the dominant topographic mixing processes applicable throughout the global ocean. It will advance understanding of two central problems in ocean science, the maintenance of the abyssal stratification, and the dissipation of the tides. HOME data will be used to improve the parameterization of dissipation in models which presently assimilate TOPEX-POSEIDON observations. The improved understanding of the dynamics and spatial distribution of mixing processes will benefit future long-term programs such as CLIVAR.

Ray, Richard D.↗

Progress on Quantitative Infrared Thermography at the NASA Langley Aerothermodynamic Laboratory

A quantitative infrared thermography technique is being developed for accurate and high-resolution measurements of surface temperature and heat flux in the hypersonic wind tunnels at NASA Langley Research Center. A hemisphere test campaign was carried out in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Laboratory 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel to assess the current performance of the technique and to identify remaining challenges. Measurements were obtained for three different model materials over a range of freestream Reynolds numbers. The raw infrared images were converted to temperature via a radiometric calibration of the camera sensor. Corrections were made for losses due to test article emissivity and window transmissivity. A preliminary uncertainty analysis yielded an estimated accuracy within 4 K at moderate viewing angles, similar to that of a standard thermocouple. Surface heat flux was obtained from the measured surface temperatures via a finite-difference solution of the one-dimensional heat equation that modeled thermal variation of the material properties. Comparisons of the measured heating to both computational and theoretical predictions demonstrated agreement within the expected uncertainty of the technique. The heat transfer measurement near the stagnation point was found to be highly sensitive to the test article emissivity, which establishes the need for improved characterization of the wind tunnel model materials for high temperature applications.

infrared thermography↗

Simulating Local and Intercontinental Pollutant Effects of Biomass Burning: Integration of Several Remotely Sensed Datasets

Burning to clear land for crops and to destroy pests is an integral and largely unavoidable part of tropical agriculture. It is easy to note but difficult to quantify using remote sensing. This report describes our efforts to integrate remotely sensed data into our computer model of tropical chemical trace-gas emissions, weather, and reaction chemistry (using the MM5 mesoscale model and our own Global-Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Simulator). The effects of burning over the continents of Africa and South America have been noticed in observations from several satellites. Smoke plumes hundreds of kilometers long may be seen individually, or may merge into a large smoke pall over thousands of kilometers of these continents. These features are related to intense pollution in the much more confined regions with heavy burning. These emissions also translocate nitrogen thousands of kilometers in the tropical ecosystems, with large fixed-nitrogen losses balanced partially by locally intense fertilization downwind, where nitric acid is rained out. At a much larger scale, various satellite measurements have indicated the escape of carbon monoxide and ozone into large filaments which extend across the Tropical and Southern Atlantic Ocean. Our work relates the source emissions, estimated in part from remote sensing, in part from conventional surface reports, to the concentrations of these gases over these intercontinental regions. We will mention work in progress to use meteorological satellite data (AVHRR, GOES, and Meteosat) to estimate the surface temperature and extent and height of clouds, and explain why these uses are so important in our computer simulations of global biogeochemistry. We will compare our simulations and interpretation of remote observations to the international cooperation involving Brazil, South Africa, and the USA in the TRACE-A (Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry near the Equator - Atlantic) and SAFARI (Southern Africa Fire Atmosphere Research Initiative) and remote-sensing /aircraft/ecosystem observational campaigns.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

Getting a Kick Out of Numerical Relativity

Operating ground-based gravitational wave detectors and a planned instrument in space are bringing about the new field of gravitational wave astronomy. A prime source for any of these observatories is the merger of a system of two black holes. Brought together by copious losses of gravitational-wave energy, these systems merge in a burst of energy with a peak power exceeding any electromagnetic source. Observations of these sources will generate a wealth of astrophysical information, and may provide an unparalleled probe of strong-field gravitational physics, but a full interpretation of the observations will require detailed predictions from General Relativity. I will discuss recent advances in numerical simulations of binary black hole systems which are generating dramatic progress in understanding binary black hole mergers. Recent achievements include the first simulations of binary black hole systems through several orbits and merger, leading to detailed predictions for the final portion of the gravitational radiation waveforms from equal-mass mergers. For unequal-mass mergers, it has recently become possible to measure the impulsive kick imparted to the final black hole, by the asymmetry of the merger radiation. These first results announce an accelerating wave of progress soon to come from the energetic field of numerical relativity.

Source record↗

Progress Toward Generation of a Navier-Stokes Database for a Harrier in Ground Effect

The Harrier YAV-8B aircraft is capable of vertical and short-field take-off and landing (V/STOL) by directing its four exhaust nozzles toward the ground, or conventional flight by rotating its nozzles into a horizontal position. The British Royal Air Force and the United States Marine Corps have used this aircraft for more than 30 years to provide a quick reaction time for troop support, and reduce the need for long runways. The success of this powered-lift (PL) vehicle has also prompted the more recent design of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). However there are significant safety issues that must be addressed when operating a PL vehicle in close proximity to the ground. Hot Gas Ingestion (HGI) by the inlets can result in a rapid loss of powered lift; and high-speed jet flows along the ground plane can induce low pressures underneath the vehicle, causing a 'suck-down' effect. Under these conditions, departure from controlled flight may occur. Moreover, unsteady ground vortices and jet fountains can affect the aircraft,s controllability and its proximity to ground troops. The viscous, time-dependent flow fields of PL vehicles are difficult to accurately and efficiently predict using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). A number of researchers have used the time-dependent Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations to compute flows for single and multiple jets in a cross-flow. A few have added some geometric complexity to the problem by computing flows for jet-augmented delta wings near a ground plane. Smith et.al. computed for the first time a single RANS solution about a simplified Harrier. This geometry included a fuselage, wing, leading edge root extension (LERX), inlets, and exhaust nozzles. All of these investigations cite two practical problems with computing these flows: 1) the need for improved solution accuracy; and, 2) the need for faster solution methods. We view the need for faster solution methods as key to improving the solution accuracy and making this class of computation more routine. One can hardly refine grids, explore the use of advanced turbulence models, and generate databases when it takes weeks of dedicated computer time for a single solution. Chaderjian, Ahmad, Pandya, and Murman have focused on reducing the time-to-solution for this very difficult and complex problem through process automation and exploitation of parallel computing. They began with the Harrier geometry reported, and added a deflected wing flap and empennage for greater realism. To date more than 80 solutions have been carried out. This paper will describe this process and progress made in reducing the time required to generate a simple longitudinal force and moment database for a Harrier in ground effect. It shows a typical snap-shot from an unsteady streakline animation, where fluid particles are colored by temperature. The ground vortex and a jet-fountain vortex are highlighted. It also shows a similar streakline image, where HGI occurs due to the vehicle in close proximity to the ground. It is show the mean lift coefficient as a function of angle of attack and height. The angle of attack range was 4 deg less than or = alpha less than or = 10 deg with an increment of 1 degree, and the height range was 10 ft less than or = h less than or = 30ft with an increment of 5 feet. This 35 solution database was extended to over 2500 cases using a monotone cubic-spline interpolation procedure. The suck-down effect (reduction of lift near the ground) is highlighted in the figure. The "cushion effect," the conventional reduction of lift as the vehicle moves out of ground effect, is also indicated. All 35 RANS solutions were obtained using 952 Silicon Graphics Origin 2000 and 3000 processors in dedicated mode for one week. Typically, 112 processors were assigned to each case. Some other cases used fewer processors to utilize all available CPUS. The final paper will report on the automation of the solution process, including: grid generation, job monitoring, solution completion criteria, and post processing. Moreover, improvements in parallel efficiency for a dual time-step algorithm for the RANS equations will also be presented. Results will be discussed in detail using unsteady streakline flow visualization to correlate unsteady flow structures with dominant aerodynamic frequencies. The stability derivatives, CL, and CL, will also be presented.

Chaderjian, Neal M.↗

Far-infrared and submillimeter photometry of evolved stars

Broad-band photometric observations at far infrared and submillimeter wavelengths (lambda is greater than 30 microns and less than 1) provide a unique probe of circumstellar shells in evolved objects and of the mass loss processes which produce them. The problems which these observations explore include: dust properties and dust-to-gas ratios in the outflowing material, the mass and structure of the circumstellar shell, and the pumping mechanism for maser emission. This contribution reviews the early work in this still largely unexploited field and reports results in each of the areas listed above. The dramatic advances forthcoming in this area from the IRAS satellite are previewed along with further progress which will come from the next generation of infrared and submillimeter telescopes.

Werner, M. W.↗

Integration of rocket turbine design and analysis through computer graphics

An interactive approach with engineering computer graphics is used to integrate the design and analysis processes of a rocket engine turbine into a progressive and iterative design procedure. The processes are interconnected through pre- and postprocessors. The graphics are used to generate the blade profiles, their stacking, finite element generation, and analysis presentation through color graphics. Steps of the design process discussed include pitch-line design, axisymmetric hub-to-tip meridional design, and quasi-three-dimensional analysis. The viscous two- and three-dimensional analysis codes are executed after acceptable designs are achieved and estimates of initial losses are confirmed.

Hsu, Wayne↗

The Remarkable 2003--2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s

The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the approximately 50-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly 2 months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with 2 previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged midwinter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over 2 standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (7 in the past 6 years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during 6 of the past 7 years, with 5 having much lower than usual potential for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of 5 of the last 7 years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

ozone↗

National Institute for Rocket Propulsion Systems 2012 Annual Report: A Year of Progress and Challenge

The National Institute for Rocket Propulsion Systems (NIRPS) maintains and advances U.S. leadership in all aspects of rocket propulsion for defense, civil, and commercial uses. The Institute's creation is in response to widely acknowledged concerns about the U.S. rocket propulsion base dating back more than a decade. U.S. leadership in rocket and missile propulsion is threatened by long-term industry downsizing, a shortage of new solid and liquid propulsion programs, limited ability to attract and retain fresh talent, and discretionary federal budget pressures. Numerous trade and independent studies cite erosion of this capability as a threat to national security and the U.S. economy resulting in a loss of global competitiveness for the U.S. propulsion industry. This report covers the period between May 2011 and December 2012, which includes the creation and transition to operations of NIRPS. All subsequent reports will be annual. The year 2012 has been an eventful one for NIRPS. In its first full year, the new team overcame many obstacles and explored opportunities to ensure the institute has a firm foundation for the future. NIRPS is now an active organization making contributions to the development, sustainment, and strategy of the rocket propulsion industry in the United States. This report describes the actions taken by the NIRPS team to determine the strategy, organizational structure, and goals of the Institute. It also highlights key accomplishments, collaborations with other organizations, and the strategic framework for the Institute.

Thomas, L. Dale↗

Risk-based Classification of Incidents

As the penetration of software into safety-critical systems progresses, accidents and incidents involving software will inevitably become more frequent. Identifying lessons from these occurrences and applying them to existing and future systems is essential if recurrences are to be prevented. Unfortunately, investigative agencies do not have the resources to fully investigate every incident under their jurisdictions and domains of expertise and thus must prioritize certain occurrences when allocating investigative resources. In the aviation community, most investigative agencies prioritize occurrences based on the severity of their associated losses, allocating more resources to accidents resulting in injury to passengers or extensive aircraft damage. We argue that this scheme is inappropriate because it undervalues incidents whose recurrence could have a high potential for loss while overvaluing fairly straightforward accidents involving accepted risks. We then suggest a new strategy for prioritizing occurrences based on the risk arising from incident recurrence.

Greenwell, William S.↗