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At least 289 records · Page 16

Propagation and Breaking at High Altitudes of Gravity Waves Excited by Tropospheric Forcing

An anelastic approximation is used with a time-variable coordinate transformation to formulate a two-dimensional numerical model that describes the evolution of gravity waves. The model is solved using a semi-Lagrangian method with monotone (nonoscillatory) interpolation of all advected fields. The time-variable transformation is used to generate disturbances at the lower boundary that approximate the effect of a traveling line of thunderstorms (a squall line) or of flow over a broad topographic obstacle. The vertical propagation and breaking of the gravity wave field (under conditions typical of summer solstice) is illustrated for each of these cases. It is shown that the wave field at high altitudes is dominated by a single horizontal wavelength; which is not always related simply to the horizontal dimension of the source. The morphology of wave breaking depends on the horizontal wavelength; for sufficiently short waves, breaking involves roughly one half of the wavelength. In common with other studies, it is found that the breaking waves undergo "self-acceleration," such that the zonal-mean intrinsic frequency remains approximately constant in spite of large changes in the background wind. It is also shown that many of the features obtained in the calculations can be understood in terms of linear wave theory. In particular, linear theory provides insights into the wavelength of the waves that break at high altitudes, the onset and evolution of breaking. the horizontal extent of the breaking region and its position relative to the forcing, and the minimum and maximum altitudes where breaking occurs. Wave breaking ceases at the altitude where the background dissipation rate (which in our model is a proxy for molecular diffusion) becomes greater than the rate of dissipation due to wave breaking, This altitude, in effect, the model turbopause, is shown to depend on a relatively small number of parameters that characterize the waves and the background state.

Prusa, Joseph M.↗

Bismuth Oxide Nanoparticles in the Stratosphere

Platey grains of cubic Bi2O3, alpha-Bi2O3, and Bi2O(2.75), nanograins were associated with chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles W7029C1, W7029E5, and 2011C2 that were collected in the stratosphere at 17-19 km altitude. Similar Bi oxide nanograins were present in the upper stratosphere during May 1985. These grains are linked to the plumes of several major volcanic eruptions during the early 1980s that injected material into the stratosphere. The mass of sulfur from these eruptions is a proxy for the mass of stratospheric Bi from which we derive the particle number densities (p/cu m) for "average Bi2O3 nanograins" due to this volcanic activity and those necessary to contaminate the extraterrestrial chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles via collisional sticking. The match between both values supports the idea that Bi2O3 nanograins of volcanic origin could contaminate interplanetary dust particles in the Earth's stratosphere.

Rietmeijer, Frans J. M.↗

Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Investment Model-Cargo

The purpose of the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Air Cargo Investment Model-Cargo (ACIMC), is to examine the economic effects of technology investment on the air cargo market, particularly the market for new cargo aircraft. To do so, we have built an econometrically based model designed to operate like the ACIM. Two main drivers account for virtually all of the demand: the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and changes in the fare yield (which is a proxy of the price charged or fare). These differences arise from a combination of the nature of air cargo demand and the peculiarities of the air cargo market. The net effect of these two factors are that sales of new cargo aircraft are much less sensitive to either increases in GDP or changes in the costs of labor, capital, fuel, materials, and energy associated with the production of new cargo aircraft than the sales of new passenger aircraft. This in conjunction with the relatively small size of the cargo aircraft market means technology improvements to the cargo aircraft will do relatively very little to spur increased sales of new cargo aircraft.

Johnson, Jesse↗

Deciphering the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: More Active Versus Less Active During the Present Epoch

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane damage potential scale) were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960's than thereafter (hence a possible two-state division: more active versus less active), and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature may be statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of 4- and 10-yr moving averages, one finds that there exists strong linear associations between the annual frequency of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and temperature (specially, when temperature slightly leads). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now decidedly upward, beginning about the mid 1980's, it is inferred that the long-term consequential trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, having begun near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred. However, because of the anomalous El Nino activity of the early to mid 1990's, the switch from the less active to the more active state essentially went unnoticed (a marked increase in the number of intense hurricanes was not observed until the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, following the end of the anomalous El Nino activity). Presuming that a return to the more active state has, indeed, occurred, one expects the number of seasonal intense hurricanes during the present epoch (continuing through about 2012) to usually be higher than average (i.e., greater than or equal to 2), except during El Nino-related seasons when the number usually will be less than average.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Total solar irradiance variations: The construction of a composite and its comparison with models

Measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last 18 years from spacecraft are reviewed. Corrections are determined for the early measurements made by the HF radiometer within the ERB experiment on NIMBUS 7 and the factor to refer active cavity radiometer irradiation monitoring (ACRIM) 2 to the ACRIM 1 irradiance scale. With these corrections, a composite TSI is constructed with a model that combines a magnetic brightness proxy with observed sunspot darkening and explains nearly 90 percent of the observed short and long term variance. Possible, but still unverified degradation of the radiometers hampers conclusions about irradiance changes on decadal time scales and longer.

Froehlich, Claus↗

Trends in the Annual Frequency of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: Implications for the Near-Term

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) have been observed in the Atlantic basin. These intense hurricanes have had an observed annual frequency of 0-7 events per year (having a mean, mode, and median equal to about 2 events per year), being preferentially lower during El Ninio years and higher during non-El Ninio years. Also, it has recently been established that a long-term downward trend in the annual frequency of intense hurricanes, spanning about five decades, has taken place, although this trend can, alternatively, be explained as a shift from a more active state prior to the mid 1960's to a less active state thereafter (rather than as a simple linear decline). In this paper, on the basis of 10-yr moving averages, the long4erm trend of the frequency of intense hurricanes is compared against one for the annual mean temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland (which serves as a proxy for climatic change). Interestingly, the two sets of 10-yr moving averages correlate extremely well, especially, when incorporating a slight 6-yr lag between them (with temperature leading; r = 0.90). This suggests that the current leading trend of temperature, which had been downward, but now is upward, may portend a return to the more active state for intense hurricanes. Thus, the 1998 season (presuming the abatement of El Ninio prior to the start of the hurricane season), and for several years thereafter (at least, into the early years of the next millennium), may have an annual frequency of intense hurricanes that is commensurate with the previously observed active state that was seen prior to the mid 1960's. If true, then, the shift to the more active state, probably, occurred in the mid-to-late 1980's, apparently, having gone undetected because of the masking, or modulating, effect of El Ninio, which has been rampant since the mid-to-late 1980's.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

On the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960s than thereafter, and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature are statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of the 4- and 10-yr moving averages, the two are found to be strongly associated (when temperature leads by 6 yr). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now upward, beginning about the mid 1980s, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, beginning near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Rock Statistics at the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site, Roughness and Roving on Mars

Several rock counts have been carried out at the Mars Pathfinder landing site producing consistent statistics of rock coverage and size-frequency distributions. These rock statistics provide a primary element of "ground truth" for anchoring remote sensing information used to pick the Pathfinder, and future, landing sites. The observed rock population statistics should also be consistent with the emplacement and alteration processes postulated to govern the landing site landscape. The rock population databases can however be used in ways that go beyond the calculation of cumulative number and cumulative area distributions versus rock diameter and height. Since the spatial parameters measured to characterize each rock are determined with stereo image pairs, the rock database serves as a subset of the full landing site digital terrain model (DTM). Insofar as a rock count can be carried out in a speedier, albeit coarser, manner than the full DTM analysis, rock counting offers several operational and scientific products in the near term. Quantitative rock mapping adds further information to the geomorphic study of the landing site, and can also be used for rover traverse planning. Statistical analysis of the surface roughness using the rock count proxy DTM is sufficiently accurate when compared to the full DTM to compare with radar remote sensing roughness measures, and with rover traverse profiles.

Haldemann, A. F. C.↗

Satellite Remote Sensing of Aerosol Forcing

The role of aerosol forcing remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimating man's impact on the global climate system. One school of thought suggests that remote sensing by satellite sensors will provide the data necessary to narrow these uncertainties. While satellite measurements of direct aerosol forcing appear to be straightforward, satellite measurements of aerosol indirect forcing will be more complicated. Pioneering studies identified indirect aerosol forcing using AVHRR data in the biomass burning regions of Brazil. We have expanded this analysis with AVHRR to include an additional year of data and assimilated water vapor fields. The results show similar latitudinal dependence as reported by Kaufman and Fraser, but by using water vapor observations we conclude that latitude is not a proxy for water vapor and the strength of the indirect effect is not correlated to water vapor amounts. In addition to the AVHRR study we have identified indirect aerosol forcing in Brazil at much smaller spatial scales using the MODIS Airborne Simulator. The strength of the indirect effect appears to be related to cloud type and cloud dynamics. There is a suggestion that some of the cloud dynamics may be influenced by smoke destabilization of the atmospheric column. Finally, this study attempts to quantify remote sensing limitations due to the accuracy limits of the retrieval algorithms. We use a combination of numerical aerosol transport models, ground-based AERONET data and ISCCP cloud climatology to determine how much of the forcing occurs in regions too clean to determine from satellite retrievals.

Remer, Lorraine↗

BSD Portals for LINUX 2.0

Portals, an experimental feature of 4.4BSD, extend the file system name space by exporting certain open () requests to a user-space daemon. A portal daemon is mounted into the file name space as if it were a standard file system. When the kernel resolves a pathname and encounters a portal mount point, the remainder of the path is passed to the portal daemon. Depending on the portal "pathname" and the daemon's configuration, some type of open (2) is performed. The resulting file descriptor is passed back to the kernel which eventually returns it to the user, to whom it appears that a "normal" open has occurred. A proxy portalfs file system is responsible for kernel interaction with the daemon. The overall effect is that the portal daemon performs an open (2) on behalf of the kernel, possibly hiding substantial complexity from the calling process. One particularly useful application is implementing a connection service that allows simple scripts to open network sockets. This paper describes the implementation of portals for LINUX 2.0.

McNab, A. David↗

Soil Moisture and Mesoscale Convective Complex Development During the 1993 US Midwest Flood: Results from the MM5-PLACE Atmosphere/Land-Surface Model

The 1993 US Midwest Flood produced record levels of flooding, in the Mississippi River Basin. This flooding resulted from repeated frontal passages and mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) during the months of June and July. A better understanding of processes that influenced MCC development during the 1993 Flood may lead to improved forecasts of heavy precipitation and flooding. Here, we consider the impact of soil moisture on MCC development during a two-day period (June 23-24) of the 1993 US Midwest Flood. The purpose of this study is to assess the importance of soil moisture distribution on the timing, intensity, and location of heavy precipitation. In this study, the MM5-PLACE Atmosphere/Land-Surface Model is utilized. The atmospheric component consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model, and the land-surface component consists of the Goddard Parameterization for Land Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE). Initial soil moisture is provided from two sources: 1) NCEP reanalysis, and 2) Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) using NOAA rain gauge measurements as a proxy for soil moisture. NCEP reanalysis provides coarse resolution initial soil moisture (2.5 degree), while API provides high resolution initial soil moisture (10-200 km depending on NOAA rain gauge spacing). Initial results indicate that the distribution of soil moisture has a significant impact on the timing and location of heavy precipitation during this two-day flood event. Precipitation in simulations with high resolution initial soil moisture agrees more closely with observed precipitation. These results suggest that high resolution soil moisture observations are necessary to accurately predict severe storm development, heavy precipitation, and subsequent flooding.

Baker, R. David↗

Satellite Observation of El Nino Effects on Amazon Forest Phenology and Productivity

Climate variability may affect the functioning of Amazon moist tropical forests, and recent modeling analyses suggest that the carbon dynamics of the region vary interannually in response to precipitation and temperature anomalies. However, due to persistent orbital and atmospheric artifacts in the satellite record, remote sensing observations have not provided quantitative evidence that climate variation affects Amazon forest phenology or productivity, We developed a method to minimize and quantify non-biological artifacts in NOAA AVHRR satellite data, providing a record of estimated forest phenological variation from 1982-1993. The seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) amplitude (a proxy for phenology) increased throughout much of the basin during El Nino periods when rainfall was anomalously low. Wetter La Nina episodes brought consistently smaller NDVI amplitudes. Using radiative transfer and terrestrial biogeochemical models driven by these satellite data, we estimate that canopy-energy absorption and net primary production of Amazon forests varied interannually by as much as 21% and 18%, respectively. These results provide large-scale observational evidence for interannual sensitivity to El Nino of plant phenology and carbon flux in Amazon forests.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

Climate and Ozone Response to Increased Stratospheric Water Vapor

Stratospheric water vapor abundance affects ozone, surface climate, and stratospheric temperatures. From 30-50 km altitude, temperatures show global decreases of 3-6 K over recent decades. These may be a proxy for water vapor increases, as the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model reproduces these trends only when stratospheric water vapor is allowed to increase. Observations suggest that stratospheric water vapor is indeed increasing, however, measurements are extremely limited in either spatial coverage or duration. The model results suggest that the observed changes may be part of a global, long-term trend. Furthermore, the required water vapor change is too large to be accounted for by increased production within the stratosphere, suggesting that ongoing climate change may be altering tropospheric input. The calculated stratospheric water vapor increase contributes an additional approximately equals 24% (approximately equals 0.2 W/m(exp 2)) to the global warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases over the past two decades. Observed ozone depletion is also better reproduced when destruction due to increased water vapor is included. If the trend continues, it could increase future global warming and impede stratospheric ozone recovery.

Shindell, Drew T.↗

Optical Measurements and Modeling to Estimate Concentrations and Fluxes of Organic Matter in the Southern Ocean

This project was a collaboration between two Principal Investigators, Dr. Dariusz Stramski and Dr. Greg Mitchell of Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego. Our overall goal was to conduct optical measurements and modeling to estimate concentrations of organic matter in the Southern Ocean in support of the U.S. JGOFS Process Study in this region. Key variables and processes of high relevance to accomplish the JGOFS goals include time and space resolution of phytoplankton pigments, particulate organic carbon, and the formation and export of organic carbon. Our project focused on establishing the fundamental relationships for parameterization of these variables and processes in terms of the optical properties of seawater, and developing understanding of why the Southern Ocean differs from other low-latitude systems, or has differentiation within. Our approach builds upon historical observations that optical properties provide a useful proxy for key reservoirs of organic matter such as chlorophyll alpha (Chl) and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations, which are of relevance to the JGOFS objectives. We carried out detailed studies of in situ and water sample optical properties including spectral reflectance, absorption, beam attenuation, scattering, and backscattering coefficients. We evaluated the ability to estimate Chl from the spectral reflectance (ocean color) in the Southern Ocean. We examined relationships between the ocean optical properties and particulate organic carbon. We developed, for the first time, an algorithm for estimating particulate organic carbon concentration in the surface ocean from satellite imagery of ocean color. With this algorithm, we obtained maps of POC distribution in the Southern Ocean showing the seasonal progression of POC in the austral spring-summer season. We also developed a semianalytical reflectance model for the investigated polar waters based on our field measurements of absorption and backscattering coefficients and Chl-dependent parameterizations of these coefficients. With this model, libraries of expected reflectance spectra for various chlorophyll concentrations can be generated with high spectral resolution for specific oceanic regions. In addition, our semianalytical reflectance model provided insight into the mechanisms which drive the empirical relationships between the ocean color and chlorophyll concentration. Our optical approach to the study of pigment and carbon concentrations will be directly relevant to development of system models and long-term monitoring of the Southern Ocean.

Stramski, Dariusz↗

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗

Advanced Automation for Ion Trap Mass Spectrometry-New Opportunities for Real-Time Autonomous Analysis

The utility of MS/MS for both target compound analysis and the structure elucidation of unknowns has been described in a number of references. A broader acceptance of this technique has not yet been realized as it requires large, complex, and costly instrumentation which has not been competitive with more conventional techniques. Recent advancements in ion trap mass spectrometry promise to change this situation. Although the ion trap's small size, sensitivity, and ability to perform multiple stages of mass spectrometry have made it eminently suitable for on-line, real-time monitoring applications, advance automation techniques are required to make these capabilities more accessible to non-experts. Towards this end we have developed custom software for the design and implementation of MS/MS experiments. This software allows the user to take full advantage of the ion trap's versatility with respect to ionization techniques, scan proxies, and ion accumulation/ejection methods. Additionally, expert system software has been developed for autonomous target compound analysis. This software has been linked to ion trap control software and a commercial data system to bring all of the steps in the analysis cycle under control of the expert system. These software development efforts and their utilization for a number of trace analysis applications will be described.

Palmer, Peter T.↗

Observations Regarding Small Eolian Dunes and Large Ripples on Mars

Eolian bedforms occur at the interface between a planetary surface and its atmosphere; they present a proxy record of the influence of climate, expressed in sediment transport, over that surface. High resolution images (1.5 - 12 m/pixel) from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera provide glimpses of the most recent events shaping the martian landscape. Thousands of images exhibit small transverse dunes or large eolian ripples that have crest-to-crest spacings of 10 to 60 m, heights of a few to 10 m. Bedforms of the size and patterns seen in the Mars photographs are rarely described among Earth's eolian landforms; in terms of size and morphology, most of these fall between traditional definitions of "ripples" and "dunes". Dunes are composed chiefly of materials transported by saltation, ripples are smaller forms moved along by the impact of saltating grains (traction). The largest reported eolian ripples on Earth (granule ripples, megaripples) are typically smaller than the bedforms observed on Mars; likewise, most dunes are typically larger. The small dunes and large ripples on Mars come in a variety of relative albedos, despite an early MGS impression that they are all of high albedo. Some ripples occur on the surfaces of sand dunes; these are most likely true granule ripples. However, most of these bedforms occur in troughs, pits, craters, and on deflated plains. Despite impressions early in the MGS mission, they do not occur everywhere (e.g., they are rare on the northern plains) but they do occur at a range of elevations from the highest volcanoes to the deepest basins. Where they occur on a hard substrate among larger sand dunes, the big dunes have over-ridden the smaller bedforms, indicating that the smaller features are older and perhaps indurated or very coarse-grained. At other locales, the small bedforms have been mantled by material settled from suspension, in other cases they are being exhumed and may be lithified. Still other examples are peppered with small impact craters, implying considerable age. These bedforms present a complicated record of the geologically-recent past, one that has involved changes in climate, sediment transport capabilities, and sediment sources and sinks over time.

Edgett, Kenneth S.↗

On the Performance of TCP Spoofing in Satellite Networks

In this paper, we analyze the performance of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) in a network that consists of both satellite and terrestrial components. One method, proposed by outside research, to improve the performance of data transfers over satellites is to use a performance enhancing proxy often dubbed 'spoofing.' Spoofing involves the transparent splitting of a TCP connection between the source and destination by some entity within the network path. In order to analyze the impact of spoofing, we constructed a simulation suite based around the network simulator ns-2. The simulation reflects a host with a satellite connection to the Internet and allows the option to spoof connections just prior to the satellite. The methodology used in our simulation allows us to analyze spoofing over a large range of file sizes and under various congested conditions, while prior work on this topic has primarily focused on bulk transfers with no congestion. As a result of these simulations, we find that the performance of spoofing is dependent upon a number of conditions.

Ishac, Joseph↗