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NASA NTRS2018

NASA's SnowEx Campaign and Measuring Global Snow from Space

Snow blankets 30% of Earth's land surface (60% of northern hemisphere land) in midwinter, dramatically changing our planet's land surface and affecting our weather for months. Seasonal snow is critically important to society for the management of water resources, natural hazards, water security, and in many economic sectors. The only practical way to estimate the quantity of snow on a global scale is through satellites. Despite 4 decades of satellite observations, the highly variable nature of snow still presents significant challenges toward achieving this goal. For example, current space-based techniques underestimate snow water equivalent (SWE) by as much as 50%, and model-based estimates can differ greatly versus estimates based on remotely-sensed observations. Snow community consensus is that a multi-sensor approach is needed to adequately address global snow, combined with modeling and data assimilation to fill the gaps in space and time. What remains, then, is how best to combine and use the various sensors under different types of snow conditions and confounding factors. NASA's multi-year SnowEx airborne campaign is designed to collect measurements needed to enable algorithm development and to guide those mission trade studies. Year 1 (2017) focused on the distribution of snow-water equivalent (SWE) and the snow energy balance in a forested environment. This paper will discuss the various remote sensing options for snow, the challenging factors, and describe the recently-completed first year of SnowEx in Colorado, USA. Ground-based remote sensing and in situ data collection involved nearly 100 participants over three weeks. The airborne campaign included nine sensors on five aircraft. We will conclude by discussing options for a future snow satellite mission.

campaign↗

NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Limited Resource-Bounded Disjunction in Scheduling

We describe three approaches to enabling a severely computationallylimited embedded scheduler to consider a smallnumber of alternative activities based on resource availability.We consider the case where the scheduler is so computationallylimited that it cannot backtrack search. The first twoapproaches precompile resource checks (called guards) thatonly enable selection of a preferred alternative activity if sufficientresources are estimated to be available to schedule theremaining activities. The third approach mimics backtrackingby invoking the scheduler multiple times with the alternativeactivities. We present an evaluation of these techniques onMars mission scenarios (called sol types) from NASA’s nextplanetary rover where these techniques are being evaluatedfor inclusion in an onboard scheduler.

Vaquero, Tiago↗

NASA NTRS1997

T/BEST: Technology Benefit Estimator for Composites and Applications to Engine Structures

Progress in the field of aerospace propulsion has heightened the need to combine advanced technologies. These benefits will provide guidelines for identifying and prioritizing high-payoff research areas, will help manage research with limited resources, and will show the link between advanced and basic concepts. An effort was undertaken at the NASA Lewis Research Center to develop a formal computational method, T/BEST (Technology Benefit Estimator), to assess advanced aerospace technologies, such as fibrous composites, and credibly communicate the benefits of research. Fibrous composites are ideal for structural applications such as high-performance aircraft engine blades where high strength-to-weight and stiffness-to-weight ratios are required. These factors - along with the flexibility to select the composite system and layup, and to favorably orient fiber directions - reduce the displacements and stresses caused by large rotational speeds in aircraft engines.

Chamis, Christos↗

NASA NTRS2010

Utilization of Hydrologic Remote Sensing Data in Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation: Current Status and Challenges

Recent advances in remote sensing technologies have enabled the monitoring and measurement of the Earth's land surface at an unprecedented scale and frequency. The myriad of these land surface observations must be integrated with the state-of-the-art land surface model forecasts using data assimilation to generate spatially and temporally coherent estimates of environmental conditions. These analyses are of critical importance to real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resources management and flood, drought, weather and climate prediction. This need motivated the development of NASA Land Information System (LIS), which is an expert system encapsulating a suite of modeling, computational and data assimilation tools required to address challenging hydrological problems. LIS integrates the use of several community land surface models, use of ground and satellite based observations, data assimilation and uncertainty estimation techniques and high performance computing and data management tools to enable the assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales of interest. This presentation will focus on describing the results, challenges and lessons learned from the use of remote sensing data for improving land surface modeling, within LIS. More specifically, studies related to the improved estimation of soil moisture, snow and land surface temperature conditions through data assimilation will be discussed. The presentation will also address the characterization of uncertainty in the modeling process through Bayesian remote sensing and computational methods.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM) is a computer program that simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket engines for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2003

Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM), a discrete event simulation developed in Extend , simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket propulsion test articles for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

Smith, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.

Piland, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evapotranspiration-Based Irrigation Scheduling in Cool-Season Vegetables

Crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is strongly linked with photosynthetically active vegetation fraction (Fc). Estimation of ETc may support efficiency gains in irrigation water management, which in turn can mitigate nitrate leaching, promote water supply sustainability, and reduce energy costs associated with water pumping or transport. The University of California Cooperative Extension operates the CropManage (CM) model as a freely-available web-application for growers and consultants to support irrigation and nitrogen scheduling decisions. CM accounts for the rapid growth and typically brief cycle of cool-season vegetables, where Fc and crop coefficient (fraction of reference ET) can change daily during canopy development. Daily weather conditions are inherently accounted for by use of grass reference ETo data imported from the California Dept. Water Resources. Crop water requirement calculations are output in terms of irrigation system runtime. Empirical equations are used to estimate daily Fc time-series for a given crop type, primarily as a function of planting date and expected harvest. An applications programming interface (API) enables CM to import satellite-based Fc observations from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support, which uses Landsat imagery to monitor about eight million irrigation acres statewide. The API is intended to provide a check on internal CM predictions of Fc and to facilitate expansion of the web-app to new crops and regions. A replicated irrigation trial was performed on cauliflower during spring/summer 2018 at the USDA Agricultural Research Station in Salinas, CA. The crop was established by sprinkler irrigation, and CropManage was then used to guide a series of drip irrigation treatments at 50%, 75%, 100%, and 150% of ETc replacement levels. Results will be presented with respect to water use efficiency, nitrogen use efficiency, biomass yield, and marketable yield. Additional findings will be presented for a celery trial harvested during autumn 2018.

Johnson, Lee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Reliability↗

NASA NTRS1975

Potassium topping cycles for stationary power

A design study was made of the potassium topping cycle powerplant for central station use. Initially, powerplant performance and economics were studied parametrically by using an existing steam plant as the bottom part of the cycle. Two distinct powerplants were identified which had good thermodynamic and economic performance. Conceptual designs were made of these two powerplants in the 1200 MWe size, and capital and operating costs were estimated for these powerplants. A technical evaluation of these plants was made including conservation of fuel resources, environmental impact, technology status, and degree of development risk. It is concluded that the potassium topping cycle could have a significant impact on national goals such as air and water pollution control and conservation of natural resources because of its higher energy conversion efficiency.

Rossbach, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Nasa Program Plan

Major facts are given for NASA'S planned FY-1981 through FY-1985 programs in aeronautics, space science, space and terrestrial applications, energy technology, space technology, space transportation systems, space tracking and data systems, and construction of facilities. Competition and cooperation, reimbursable launchings, schedules and milestones, supporting research and technology, mission coverage, and required funding are considered. Tables and graphs summarize new initiatives, significant events, estimates of space shuttle flights, and major missions in astrophysics, planetary exploration, life sciences, environmental and resources observation, and solar terrestrial investigations. The growth in tracking and data systems capabilities is also depicted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1982

Remote Sensing Applications to the Pennsylvania Abandoned Mine Reclamation Program

Pennsylvania Abandoned Mine Land Inventory demonstrated the effective use of remote sensing techniques within the context of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977. The inventory combined data from field work, a literature search, and photointerpretation to fulfill both State and Federal requirements. A primary project objective was to accurately identify and map all surface features and disturbances from abandoned surface and underground mining. Black-and-white aerial photographs were used to record pits, contour benches, highwalls, spoil material, graded and recontoured areas, impounded water, and serious erosion and slide prone areas. In addition, vegetation cover estimates and surrounding land uses were noted. The inventory data base provides Pennsylvania with a valuable resource management tool that should be systematically updated. The utilization of remotely sensed data from SPOT or LANDSAT-D satellites may prove valuable in the anticipated updating and monitoring of the Pennsylvania AML inventory over the next several years.

Clemens, E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Landsat-4 Thematic Mapper scene characteristics of a suburban and rural area

The Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor, which is carried by the Landsat-4 and Landsat-5 satellites, represents the latest generation of an earth resource scanner system. TM applications range from determining the extent and changes of land cover to estimating agricultural yields. The TM has improvements over the Multispectral Scanner (MSS) with respect to spatial resolution, spectral regions, and radiometry. The present paper is concerned with two major objectives related to the analysis of the Landsat TM. One of these objectives is related to an evaluation of the utility of TM in the discrimination of surface cover. In connection with the second objective, an evaluation was conducted of the utility of selected image processing procedures to enhance the capability of Landsat TM to map land cover. It was found that TM data may be used for discriminating smaller targets, such as agricultural fields and city blocks, than previously obtainable with MSS data.

Toll, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

Cates, Grant R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Range Systems Simulation for the NASA Shuttle: Emphasis on Disaster and Prevention Management During Lift-Off

This article describes a decision-making system composed of a number of safety and environmental models for the launch phase of a NASA Space Shuttle mission. The components of this distributed simulation environment represent the different systems that must collaborate to establish the Expectation of Casualties (E(sub c)) caused by a failed Space Shuttle launch and subsequent explosion (accidental or instructed) of the spacecraft shortly after liftoff. This decision-making tool employs Space Shuttle reliability models, trajectory models, a blast model, weather dissemination systems, population models, amount and type of toxicants, gas dispersion models, human response functions to toxicants, and a geographical information system. Since one of the important features of this proposed simulation environment is to measure blast, toxic, and debris effects, the clear benefits is that it can help safety managers not only estimate the population at risk, but also to help plan evacuations, make sheltering decisions, establish the resources required to provide aid and comfort, and mitigate damages in case of a disaster.

Rabelo, Lisa↗

NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulating Medical Officer Occupied Time (MOOT) for Space Medical System Design, a Pilot Project

Providing and receiving medical treatment takes time away from other duties. The time is expected to vary based on the provider’s skill level, duration of the patient’s illness, specific tasks performed, and the condition’s severity. Since crew time is a limited resource, it is important to understand how MOOT will impact mission objectives. Historically, diagnostic/treatment time was estimated only for the patient by subject matter experts using a non-standard approach based on the condition as a whole. The present effort uses a Delphi approach among experts of varied training levels and based on estimates of specific medical tasks in order to more accurately assess downtime for both caregiver and patient with fewer errors.

Preston Fedor↗