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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Enhancing Model Predictability for a Scramjet Using Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds

In this study, the computational burden of a large-eddy simulation for reactive flows is exacerbated in the presence of uncertainty in flow conditions or kinetic variables. A comprehensive statistical analysis, with a sufficiently large number of samples, remains elusive. Statistical learning is an approach that allows for extracting more information using fewer samples. Such procedures, if successful, will greatly enhance the predictability of models in the sense of improving exploration and characterization of uncertainty due to model error and input dependencies, all while being constrained by the size of the associated statistical samples. In this paper, it is shown how a recently developed procedure for probabilistic learning on manifolds can serve to improve the predictability in a probabilistic framework of a scramjet simulation. The estimates of the probability density functions of the quantities of interest are improved together with estimates of the statistics of their maxima. Lastly, it is also demonstrated how the improved statistical model adds critical insight to the performance of the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Earth mover’s distance as a measure of CP violation

We introduce a new unbinned two sample test statistic sensitive to CP violation utilizing the optimal transport plan associated with the Wasserstein (earth mover’s) distance. The efficacy of the test statistic is shown via two examples of CP asymmetric distributions with varying sample sizes: the Dalitz distributions of B 0 → K + π – π 0 and of D 0 → π + π – π 0 decays. The windowed version of the Wasserstein distance test statistic is shown to have comparable sensitivity to CP violation as the commonly used energy test statistic, but also retains information about the localized distributions of CP asymmetry over the Dalitz plot. For large statistic datasets we introduce two modified Wasserstein distance based test statistics — the binned and the sliced Wasserstein distance statistics, which show comparable sensitivity to CP violation, but improved computing time and memory scalings. Finally, general extensions and applications of the introduced statistics are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Minimum local distance density estimation

We present a local density estimator based on first-order statistics. To estimate the density at a point, $x$, the original sample is divided into subsets and the average minimum sample distance to $x$ over all such subsets is used to define the density estimate at $x$. The tuning parameter is thus the number of subsets instead of the typical bandwidth of kernel or histogram-based density estimators. The proposed method is similar to nearest-neighbor density estimators but it provides smoother estimates. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this minimum sample distance statistic to study globally optimal values for the number and size of the subsets. Simulations are used to illustrate and compare the convergence properties of the estimator. The results show that the method provides good estimates of a wide variety of densities without changes of the tuning parameter, and that it offers competitive convergence performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Microstructure Development of 308L Stainless Steel During Additive Manufacturing

$In$ $situ$ high-energy X-ray diffraction measurements were completed during deposition of 308L stainless steel wire onto a 304L stainless steel substrate. Attempts were made to extract microstructural features such as phase fraction and internal stress, as well as temperature evolution immediately following the deposition. The limited data that could be collected during deposition and rapid solidification are critically examined. High-energy X-rays coupled with relatively slow detectors were utilized to enable determination of orientation-dependent lattice parameters accurately enough to comment on phase strain evolution between austenite and ferrite. Here, information about the hydrostatic and deviatoric stress states of the constituent phases was determined on time scales that are relevant to their development. However, the time resolution of the technique was insufficient to monitor phase evolution during the solid–solid phase transformation and, more so, during solidification. Moreover, the accurate and absolute determination of inherently statistical parameters, such as phase fraction, depends critically on the ability to sample a statistically significant numbers of grains in the microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantification of Organic Porosity and Water Accessibility in Marcellus Shale Using Neutron Scattering

Pores within organic matter (OM) are a significant contributor to the total pore system in gas shales. These pores contribute most of the storage capacity in gas shales. Here we present a novel approach to characterize the OM pore structure (including the porosity, specific surface area, pore size distribution, and water accessibility) in Marcellus shale. By using ultrasmall and small-angle neutron scattering, and by exploiting the contrast matching of the shale matrix with suitable mixtures of deuterated and protonated water, both total and water-accessible porosity were measured on centimeter-sized samples from two boreholes from the nanometer to micrometer scale with good statistical coverage. Samples were also measured after combustion at 450 °C. Analysis of scattering data from these procedures allowed quantification of OM porosity and water accessibility. OM hosts 24–47% of the total porosity for both organic-rich and -poor samples. This porosity occupies as much as 29% of the OM volume. In contrast to the current paradigm in the literature that OM porosity is organophilic and therefore not likely to contain water, our results demonstrate that OM pores with widths >20 nm exhibit the characteristics of water accessibility. In conclusion, our approach reveals the complex structure and wetting behavior of the OM porosity at scales that are hard to interrogate using other techniques.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Application of MARSSIM and MARSAME Guidance to Footprint Reduction Projects at a DOE Site (LA-UR-15-28730) - 16216

Department of Energy regulations require that potentially contaminated items and materials being released to the public are monitored and that any residual radioactive contamination does not contribute more than 10 μSv/y (1 mrem/y). In footprint reduction and demolition projects, buildings with potential residual contamination must be carefully and systematically surveyed prior to recycling materials or releasing debris for burial in commercial landfills. Multi-agency guidance is available to assure statistically representative sampling of the items and materials, appropriate measurement quality objectives, and valid statistical approaches for release decisions. Additionally, implementing a cost-effective evaluation program for releases requires working closely with regulators and waste generators and developing a technically sound process to account for naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) in building materials. Los Alamos National Laboratory has successfully implemented the available guidance for footprint reduction projects to help divert clean, recyclable materials from landfills and limit the possibility of mistakenly disposing of NORM as low level waste. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development and Comparison of Purgeable Mercury Values in SRR Samples Measured by SRNL and Eurofins FGS

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) requested the development of mercury speciation capabilities at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to support the Liquid Waste Operations at SRS. As part of that method development, SRR requested that SRNL Analytical Development (AD) compare their results with those obtained from their outside contract laboratory, Eurofins Frontier Global Sciences (FGS). This document reports on this method development work performed at SRNL as well as the comparative analyses conducted between the two laboratories. Development, optimization, and validation were undertaken at SRNL to produce a method for the species-specific analysis of dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) in samples from SRR. It was determined that DGM present in SRR samples represented a combination of various soluble and volatile mercury species- and is thus referred to in this document as purgeable mercury. A method has been developed and analytically validated for the analysis of purgeable mercury in caustic nuclear waste. Using multivariate optimization, an efficient and sensitive method was produced. Total recovery of spiked purgeable mercury from deionized water was 99.4 ±10.6% and 91.6 ±14.9% from spiked high-activity tank waste samples. Calibration, by external calibration and standard addition calibration, maintained a mean accuracy of 101 ±5% and 99.9 ±1.7%, respectively. An interlaboratory comparison was performed between SRNL and Eurofins FGS in the co-analysis of three quarterly SRR Tank 50 samples. The statistical evaluations presented in this document support the following conclusions: for internal validation data, the two laboratories demonstrate biases of -4.3% for SRNL and 4.4% for Eurofins FGS, though neither are statistically significant at the 5% level. While the percent relative standard deviation for each of the laboratories is rather large (21.5% for SRNL and 18.4% for Eurofins FGS), there is no indication of a statistically significant difference between the two laboratories in the precision of these results. For the three sets of SRR quarterly Tank 50 samples, there is no indication of a statistically significant bias between the two laboratories at the 5% significance level. These results indicate that SRNL may provide data to the customer of statistically similar quality to Eurofins FGS.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Gamma Ray Spectrometry Assay Results of 242 Pu Samples at the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Facility

Thirty individual items at the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) facility with accountable amounts of 242 Pu required assay by gamma ray spectrometry in order to establish their masses with reasonable precision. There were two phases to this measurement campaign: 1) a preliminary screening phase in which each item was measured for a short 600 second count time to establish the relative masses between similar or like items, and 2) a second phase in which groups of items were counted for a considerably longer time in order to establish the group mass of 242 Pu in a reasonable time frame. The data from the two phases were assessed in a manner that allowed the project team to assign a 242 Pu mass to each individual item in the inventory, with the exception of three column tubes that could not be measured individually because of radiological contamination issues. The project team performed technical analyses with the SNAP™ analysis routine, PC-FRAM plutonium isotopic routine, and the NEN-2 PeakEasy routine. When total measurement uncertainties are factored in, the individual mass quantities calculated for all samples are statistically equivalent to the expected mass of 0.88 grams of total plutonium per sample.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Strategies and Technologies for In Situ Mineralogical Investigations on Mars

Surface landers on Mars (Viking and Pathfinder) have not revealed satisfying answers to the mineralogy and lithology of the planet's surface. In part, this results from their prime directives: Viking focused on exobiology, Pathfinder focused on technology demonstration. The analytical instruments on board the landers made admirable attempts to extract the mineralogy and geology of Mars, as did countless modeling efforts after the missions. Here we suggest a framework for elucidating martian, or any other planetary geology, through an approach that defines (a) type of information required, (b) explorational strategy harmonious with acquisition of these data, (c) interpretation approach to the data, (d) compatible mission architecture, (e) instrumentation for interrogating rocks and soil. (a) Data required: The composition of a planet is ordered at scales ranging from molecules to minerals to rocks, and from geological units to provinces to planetary-scale systems. The largest ordering that in situ compositional instruments can attempt to interrogate is rock type "aggregate" information. This is what the geologist attempts to identify first. From this, mineralogy can be either directly seen or inferred. From mineralogy can be determined elemental abundances and perhaps the state of the compounds as being crystalline or amorphous. Knowledge of rock type and mineralogy is critical for elucidating geologic process. Mars landers acquired extremely valuable elemental data, but attempted to move from elements to aggregates, but this can only be done by making many assumptions and sometimes giant leaps of faith. Data we believe essential are elements, minerals, degree of ordering of compounds, and the aggregate or rock type that these materials compose. (b) Explorational strategy: A lander should function as a surrogate geologist. Of the total landscape, a geologist sees much, but gives detailed attention to an infinitesimally small amount of what is seen. To acquire samples worth detailed scrutiny, as many samples as possible need examining at a cursory or reconnaissance level. A representative, statistically-meaningful sample number cannot be overemphasized. This maxim still applies to geological exploration of our own planet of which we have abundant knowledge. Analysis of many samples mandates low-power consumption per sample. (c) Data interpretation: No single instrument can analyze the full spectrum of the x-axis. An instrument is optimized for detecting certain material characteristics and must therefore affix itself to some point on the x-axis. Any conclusions drawn about data to the left or right of the instrument's position on this axis must necessarily be derived by inference. Hence, it seems logical to include on a mission, instruments that are not closely spaced in their x-axis-position, and if only two analytical methods are used, as shown, they should start at opposite ends of the axis and work towards the center. As examples, we depict a high-resolution camera to evaluate rock type ("aggregate" state) and mineralogy, and an x-ray diffractometer-fluorescence spectrometer (XRD-XRF) to determine elements, minerals, and the degree of order of materials. (d) Mission architecture: No instrument or suite of instruments can be relied upon to always give truly unequivocal analyses. The suite of instruments should therefore permit conclusions of one instrument to be checked against those of another through closed analytical loops. These "loops" can be structured by a combination of orbital imagery, descent imagery, broad-band site viewing/analysis, and data that cover both x and y axes. For example, the detection of a basaltic-looking rock with a microscope should be checked against the elements detected, the appearance of the rock as a lava flow from descent imagery, and so forth. (e) Instrumentation: To satisfy the above criteria, it is necessary to: (i) See the rock or soil with high resolution + magnification, (ii) Examine many samples, (iii) Consume little power per analysis, (iv) Determine elemental species, (v) Determine mineralogy directly (not inferentially) and the degree of ordering of compounds, (vi) Start analyzing from both ends of the x-axis. Every geologist wants to see the hand sample first, and apply a hand lens to its surface. This has not been the starting point for missions to Mars. Thus, our technology satisfies all these criteria . This XRD-XRF-Optical instrument currently being developed, analyses rock or soil surfaces without the need for sample acquisition or preparation; this satisfies the power criterion, and enables many analyses. The device acquires direct mineralogy and determines elemental species. The embedded endoscopic camera satisfies the critical criterion of close inspection of samples; the fiber optic cable can also be used for IR, LTV, or laser sample analysis. Additional information is contained in the original (Figures).

Marshall, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2018

D-Guaranteed Discrimination of Statistical Hypotheses: a Review of Results and Unsolved Problems

We compare two sequential d-guaranteed tests and an optimal d-guaranteed test based on a fixed number of observations with respect to the average number of observations within the most accepted practical applications of Bayesian probabilistic models. We consider the sequential “first skipping” test, the sequential locally efficient test based on the score statistic, and the test based on a fixed number of observations that minimizes the necessary sample size. We study various characteristics of these tests connected with the number of observations within three probabilistic models, namely, the normal (ϑ, σ{sup 2}) distribution of the observed random variable and the normal a priori distribution of ϑ with fixed σ{sup 2}; the exponential distribution with the intensity parameter ϑ and the a priori gamma distribution of ϑ; and the Bernoulli sampling with the success probability ϑ and the a priori beta distribution of ϑ. We discuss the connection of the d-posterior approach with the compound decision problem as applied to the analysis of data provided by microchips (when the false discovery rate, or FDR, for short, is treated as the d-risk of the first kind). We present the vast data on characteristics of the mentioned tests obtained by the method of mathematical modeling in several tables. We discuss unsolved problems of the d-guaranteed discrimination of hypotheses with the minimal number of observations and approaches to their solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1977

Multivariate-normality goodness-of-fit tests

Computer program applies chi-square Pearson test to multivariate statistics for application in any field in which data of two or more variables (dimensions) are sampled for statistical purposes. Program handles dimensions two through five, with up to thousand data sets.

Falls, L. W.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Statistical Methods for Improved Evaluation of Environmental Sample Data quarterly FY18Q2

We will develop an enhanced statistical framework to evaluate environmental swipe samples collected at nuclear facilities with the goal of identifying anomalies associated with potential undeclared activities. Our approach will be based on Bayesian methodology and time series analysis. This overall framework should result in a more cost effective and operationally effective approach to environmental swipe sample analysis and interpretation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Populations of Carina. I. Decoding the Color–Magnitude Diagram

We investigate the color–magnitude diagram (CMD) of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data of Stetson et al. and synthetic CMDs based on isochrones of Dotter et al., in terms of the parameters [Fe/H], age, and [ α /Fe], for the cases when (i) [ α /Fe] is held constant and (ii) [ α /Fe] is varied. The data are well described by four basic epochs of star formation, having [Fe/H] = −1.85, −1.5, −1.2, and ∼−1.15 and ages ∼13, 7, ∼3.5, and ∼1.5 Gyr, respectively (for [ α /Fe] = 0.1, constant [ α /Fe], and [ α /Fe] = 0.2, 0.1, −0.2, −0.2, variable [ α /Fe]), with small spreads in [Fe/H] and age of order 0.1 dex and 1–3 Gyr. Within an elliptical radius 13.′1, the mass fractions of the populations, at their times of formation, were (in decreasing age order) 0.34, 0.39, 0.23, and 0.04. This formalism reproduces five observed CMD features (two distinct subgiant branches of old and intermediate-age populations, two younger, main-sequence components, and the small color dispersion on the red giant branch (RGB). The parameters of the youngest population are less certain than those of the others, and given it is less centrally concentrated, it may not be directly related to them. High-resolution spectroscopically analyzed RGB samples appear statistically incomplete compared with those selected using radial velocity, which contain bluer stars comprising ∼5%–10% of the samples. We conjecture these objects may, at least in part, be members of the youngest population. We use the CMD simulations to obtain insight into the population structure of Carina's upper RGB.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistical properties of IRAS galaxies

Statistical approaches to the study of galaxies seen by IRAS are reviewed, stressing the contrast between IR complete and optically complete samples. A statistical overview is given of the Cataloged Galaxies and Quasars Observed in the IRAS Survey. The bi-variate distribution of ESO/U galaxies as a function of 60 microns flux and optical size is used to predict the size of an IR complete sample from the optically complete sample. To within the uncertainties, both samples are found to belong to the same population, leaving little room for a fundamentally new class of extragalactic objects, besides IR bright galaxies like Arp220.

Helou, G.↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Discovery of λ Bootis Stars: The Southern Survey I

The λ Boo stars are a class of chemically peculiar Population I A-type stars characterized by under-abundances of the refractory elements, but near-solar abundances of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur. There is some evidence that λ Boo stars have higher frequencies of “bright” debris disks than normal A-type stars. The discovery of four exoplanets orbiting HR 8799, a λ Boo star with a resolved debris disk, suggests that the λ Boo phenomenon may be related to the presence of a dynamic debris disk, perhaps perturbed by migrating planets. However, only 64 λ Boo stars are known, and those stars were discovered with different techniques, making it problematic to use that sample for statistical purposes, including determining the frequency of debris disks. The purpose of this paper is to derive a new sample of λ Boo stars using a technique that does not lead to biases with respect to the presence of infrared excesses. Through spectroscopic observations in the southern hemisphere, we have discovered 33 λ Boo stars and have confirmed 12 others. As a step toward determining the proportion of λ Boo stars with infrared excesses, we have used WISE data to examine the infrared properties of this sample out to 22 μ m. On this basis, we cannot conclude that λ Boo stars have a greater tendency than normal A-type stars to show infrared excesses. However, observing this sample at longer wavelengths may change that conclusion, as many λ Boo debris disks are cool and do not radiate strongly at 22 μ m.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗
NASA NTRS1993

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗