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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Ectomycorrhizal effects on decomposition are highly dependent on fungal traits, climate, and litter properties: A model-based assessment. Dataset.

To simulate the effects of mycorrhizal fungi on soil organic matter cycling, we incorporated mycorrhizal processes into the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model to develop a new soil model Myco-CORPSE. The new model was calibrated and evaluated against soil measurements taken at temperate forests in New Hampshire (NH) and Georgia (GA). A series of scenario analysis were also conducted to explore the conditions under which ectomycorrhizal (ECM) N acquisition processes can induce different soil C accumulation in ECM systems compared to arbuscular (AM) systems.In this data package, we included:-The Python codes of the standard Myco-CORPSE model we developed: "Standard Myco_CORPSE python codes.zip". The main program is the "gradient_sim.py" which calculates the bulk soil microbes and CN content along a user defined gradient of clay, soil temperature, soil moisture and mycorrhizal dominance, and relies on two subprograms "CORPSE_deriv.py" and "CORPSE_integrate.py". "CORPSE_deriv.py" calculated the changes in all simulated soil stock within every time step and "CORPSE_integrate.py" integrate the changes in all simulated soil stock within simulated time period. The program "Plot.py" is used to plot the major outputs produced by the main program "gradient_sim.py".-The modified Python codes of Myco-CORPSE models with site-level environmental inputs (in NH and GA) used to conduct simulations in NH and GA sites: "NH_GA model simulations.zip". -The Python codes used to evaluate the Myco-CORPSE simulation outputs in NH and GA sites against site-level measurements: "Plot NH_GA simulation against measurements.zip". It includes both the evaluation Python code, the model outputs on NH and GA sites, and the measured soil properties in both sites.-The modified Python codes of Myco-CORPSE models "Scenario analysis_model simulations.zip" that is used to conduct scenario analysis of how different litter properties, mycorrhizal fungal traits, climate, and seasonal variation in temperature and vegetation phenology impact the mycorrhizal effects on soil CN properties. The sub file folder "Scenario analysis_litter traits" contains the codes for scenario analysis of different litter properties; The sub file folder "Scenario analysis_ECM types" contains the codes for scenario analysis of different ECM fungal traits; The sub file folder "Scenario analysis_climate&seasonality" contains the codes for scenario analysis of different climate and seasonalities;-"Scenario analysis_model results and plotting codes.zip" contains all the output files from the the scenario analysis of Myco-CORPSE model as described above and the plotting codes used to the generate the heatmaps and scatterplots shown in the manuscript "Ectomycorrhizal effects on decomposition are highly dependent on fungal traits, climate, and litter properties: A model-based assessment"The majority of the model outputs did not have specific geographic information or temporal coverage because the analysis we conducted are mainly hypothetical model simulations. We only provided geographic description, coordinates and temporal coverage for those soil measurements which we used for model evaluations (included in the "Plot NH_GA simulation against measurements.zip").

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient mapping between void shapes and stress fields using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks with sparse data

Establishing fast and accurate structure-to-property relationships is an important component in the design and discovery of advanced materials. Physics-based simulation models like the finite element method (FEM) are often used to predict deformation, stress, and strain fields as a function of material microstructure in material and structural systems. Such models may be computationally expensive and time intensive if the underlying physics of the system is complex. This limits their application to solve inverse design problems and identify structures that maximize performance. In such scenarios, surrogate models are employed to make the forward mapping computationally efficient to evaluate. However, the high dimensionality of the input microstructure and the output field of interest often renders such surrogate models inefficient, especially when dealing with sparse data. Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based surrogate models have shown great promise in handling such high-dimensional problems. In this paper, a single ellipsoidal void structure under a uniaxial tensile load represented by a linear elastic, high-dimensional and expensive-to-query, FEM model. We consider two deep CNN architectures, a modified convolutional autoencoder framework with a fully connected bottleneck and a UNet CNN, and compare their accuracy in predicting the von Mises stress field for any given input void shape in the FEM model. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis study is performed using the two approaches, where the variation in the prediction accuracy on unseen test data is studied through numerical experiments by varying the number of training samples from 20 to 100.

surrogate modeling; convolutional neural networks;↗
DOE OSTI2020

BISON Capability, Validation and Demonstration for Reactivity-Initiated Accidents

Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIA) are design basis accidents that could have adverse impacts on the core coolability. In the unlikely event that sufficient reactivity is inserted into the reactor core by the ejected/dropped control rod, prompt energy deposition into the fuel can occur, which when sufficiently high can lead to fuel rod failure or, at large energy deposition levels, expulsion of UO2 fragments or molten UO2 material from the fuel rod. This results in a release of fission product and fuel into the coolant and has the potential to compromise core coolability and threatening the pressure boundary of the primary coolant system. The design basis RIA is one of the industry challenging problems that the CASL aimed to address; the CASL RIA Challenge Problem Charter [1] states, ?The Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Rod Ejection Accident (REA) and Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Control Rod Drop Accident (CRDA) are postulated accidents with consequences that are important to nuclear safety (fuel rod integrity and core coolability). Currently each reload core design must be analyzed to meet regulatory acceptance criteria. The goal of CASLs ModSim capability for RIA is to model the event at a higher fidelity, with validation to existing tests, to better model the transient neutronics and the progression of the fuel and cladding thermal-mechanical behavior. These improved analytical capabilities can be used to better inform reload core design, limits on fuel assembly discharge burnup, restrictions on placement of fuel in the reactor, control rod insertion limits, operating margin, and performance sensitivities.? In support of that charter, BISON, the fuel performance code has been used to demonstrate the simulation of thermal-mechanical behavior of LWR fuels during a reactivity-initiated accident. The combination of mechanical, thermal, and thermal-hydraulic phenomena all present during an RIA makes a multi-physics code such as BISON a valuable tool for modeling these scenarios. This paper will highlight many of the activities associated with BISON relevant to reactivity-initiated accident capability development and validation efforts. These efforts have been performed under both CASL and the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) programs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

Tavana, Madjid↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational Investigation of Fuel Dispersal Phenomena during Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident in Light-Water Reactors

In the event of cladding rupture, which could occur in light water reactor fuel assemblies during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod. This expulsion of fragmented fuel particles, referred as fuel dispersal, is the subject of investigation to evaluate the safety implications of increasing fuel burnup in light water reactors, with a specific focus on fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal. Particle trajectories and the resulting mass distribution of the settled particles within the reactor pressure vessel can pose a long-term cooling challenge for the reactor core. The fuel dispersal phenomenon is significantly influenced by the ejection characteristics of the fuel fragments, as well as the size and shape of the cladding rupture and fuel rod depressurization history during LOCA transients. In this study, the transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized water reactor rod bundle geometry is modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework that treats the gas and solid phases as interpenetrating continua. The required boundary conditions are evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considers solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum and energy exchange between the gas and solid phases. The simulation results provide the volume fraction of the solids settled on the bottom surface of the fuel bundle, quantifying the deposition within the bundle geometry.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective

Abstract. The large spatial scale of global Earth system models (ESMs) is often cited as an obstacle to using the output by water resource managers in localized decisions. Recent advances in computing have improved the fidelity of hydrological responses in ESMs through increased connectivity between model components. However, the models are seldom evaluated for their ability to reproduce metrics that are important for and resonate with practitioners or that allow practitioners to situate higher-resolution model outputs within a cascade of uncertainty stemming from different models and scenarios. We draw on the combined experience of the author team and water manager workshop participants to identify salient water management metrics and evaluate whether they are credibly reproduced over the conterminous USA by the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble. We find that, while the exact values may not match the observations, aspects such as interannual variability can be reproduced by CESM2 for the mean wet day precipitation and length of dry spells. CESM2 also captures the proportion of total annual precipitation that derives from the heaviest rain days in watersheds that are not snow-dominated. Aggregating the 7 d mean daily runoff to two-digit Hydrological Unit Code (HUC2) watersheds also shows that rain-dominated regions capture the timing and interannual variability of annual maximum and minimum flows. We conclude that there is potential for far greater use of large-ensemble ESMs, such as CESM2, in long-range water management decisions to supplement high-resolution regional projections.

Tye, Mari R. (ORCID:0000000324911020)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelica-based system modeling for studying control-related faults in chiller plants and boiler plants serving large office buildings

System modeling is critical when studying operation faults in chiller plants and boiler plants. However, current fault models have difficulties faithfully representing the operation of chiller plants and boiler plants under the effects of those faults, especially the control-related ones. In this study, we present a systematic method to develop high-fidelity models for approximating the behaviors of chiller plants and boiler plants under faulty conditions. Compared to existing ones, the resulting fault models have two advantages: first, they better characterize the dynamic patterns in the system operation. In those models, control architecture and control logic are faithfully implemented. Thus, they can be used to study control-related faults, such as incorrect staging control due to sensor bias and mistuned feedback control. Second, they are readily extensible and can support large-scale investigations to explore different faulty conditions/scenarios. Those models are established in a hierarchical structure while modules in each layer can be redeclared and parameterized at upper layers. In such a case, modifications to the models can be realized through model modifiers and the process can be easily streamlined with scripts. We applied the proposed models in a comprehensive fault impact evaluation of the 13 control-related faults of chiller and boiler plants. In this evaluation, the proposed plant model is coupled with the EnergyPlus thermal load model to study the impact of various faulty scenarios. Based on the evaluation results, we identified the faults that have the most significant impacts on the operation of the chiller and boiler plants, respectively. We also found that the relationship between the impacts of the studied faults and the severity level of the faults are highly non-linear

Huang, Sen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in high-latitude surface energy balance driven by snowpack and vegetation dynamics under warmer climate

With rapid climate warming, expected changes in snowpack and vegetation will alter the seasonal surface albedo of high-latitude ecosystems. The extent to which these albedo changes may affect surface energy balances and thus soil temperatures is uncertain, but represents a potentially important component of ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. Here, we apply a well-tested process-rich ecosystem model, ecosys , to examine changes in seasonal surface albedo and soil temperature driven by climate-induced snowpack and vegetation changes across Alaska under a warmer twenty-first century climate. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the modeled changes in surface albedo exhibited large seasonal and spatial variations. We found spring albedo decreases driven by increases in snow-free periods (>20 d) and an extended growing season length that resulted in greater gains in leaf area index (LAI) in most parts of Alaska. In contrast, we modeled increases in summer and winter albedo (despite modeled increases in LAI) across much of the boreal forest due to an increased proportion of aspen, which has a higher leaf albedo than the currently dominant black spruce. Modeled latent heat fluxes generally increase across the twenty-first century, particularly during the spring and summer. Overall, climate warming and changes in surface energy fluxes resulted in a 3.5 ± 0.50 °C increase in spatial- and annual-averaged top 10 cm surface soil temperatures across Alaskan ecosystems by the year 2100, with larger increases in tundra than boreal forest regions. We conclude that under warmer climates, seasonal variations in albedo and surface energy fluxes are particularly pronounced during the spring and summer, driven by changes in snowpack and vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Moisture Content and Dry Matter Loss in Dynamic Woody Biomass Storage Piles with Variable Extraction

The urgent need to mitigate climate change has spurred significant interest in renewable energy sources. This paper explores the storage and processing of woody biomass for biofuel production, considering the dynamic nature of biomass piles in real-world scenarios. A model has been developed to analyze moisture content changes and dry matter loss in woody biomass stored in piles prior to processing, taking into account varying extraction methods and environmental conditions. Case studies that examine the effects of different unpiling methods (FIFO, LIFO, and homogeneous) on moisture content and dry matter loss under various feedstock arrival rates and weather conditions are presented. Results indicate that unpiling methods significantly impact moisture content, with LIFO typically resulting in higher moisture content due to the utilization of fresher feedstock. Dry matter loss increases with pile size and time, emphasizing the importance of accurate modeling for assessing carbon emissions and feedstock quality. Furthermore, the model highlights the importance of process loading order and extraction methods in biomass storage, suggesting potential cost benefits associated with decreased moisture content. The difference between different extraction methods could vary the moisture content in the feedstock reaching the biofuel process by as much as 37.6%, however dry matter loss varies minimally for realistic pile changes. Overall, this research contributes to a better understanding of biomass storage dynamics and informs sustainable biofuel production practices.

Niska, Janel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Needs to Support the Reconstruction Strategy of Ukraine

Ukraine has been facing difficult times. Russia started a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has caused huge human and infrastructure losses. As a result of the invasion, more than 8 million people left their homes. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian energy sources, destroying or damaging over 50% of thermal power generation capacity (coal and gas), 30% of solar generation, and 90% of wind generation. The Russians are also threatening Ukrainian energy security, as they currently control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. In addition, Russia has destroyed 121,000 buildings, including 5,300 multistory buildings - more buildings than Ukraine built during the past five years. The occupiers destroyed or damaged 343 district heat boiler stations (destroyed 12 / damaged 331) and 8 CHPs (destroyed 4/ damaged 4). There is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity; however, this will be a long process. The Government of Ukraine needs to simultaneously focus on many issues, from waging war to the restoration of electricity, water, and heat supply in the territories close to the front line. In addition to these time-sensitive issues, the government also needs to plan a long term multi-sector strategy for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine initiated a broad-based political process for recovery at the International Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, Switzerland. Prior to URC 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28 and was granted the status of candidate country by the European Council on June 23, 2022. More than 40 nations are fully committed to supporting Ukraine throughout its path from early to long-term recovery. In addition, these countries link a successful recovery to Ukraine’s European future (URC, 2022a). The reconstruction process will be long. The government also recognizes that it is not enough to build energy infrastructure back – it should be built back better. The government is committed to building a more sustainable and cleaner energy sector. Energy modeling can provide important insights into paths to decarbonize Ukraine’s economy while rebuilding it after the war. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IEF) work on modeling decarbonization scenarios in the energy sector of Ukraine. The teams focus on the heat sector, which includes district heat, autonomous and individual heating, and energy consumption by final energy consumption sectors, including buildings. Since the teams use world-class integrated assessment models, other sectors will be analyzed as well. The purpose of the document is to describe the needs of key Ukrainian ministries in modeling the reconstruction process. The scope of this document is limited to modeling energy consumption by the power and heat sectors, final energy consumption by buildings, and GHG emissions from these two sectors. The rest of this policy memo is organized as follows. After this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses key provisions of the reconstruction strategy with a focus on energy, buildings, heat supply, environment, and European integration aspirations. Section 3 provides an overview of recent developments and key decisions of the Government of Ukraine in the area of energy efficiency and decarbonization. Finally, Section 4 provides key suggestions on how PNNL and IEF can help the Government of Ukraine in developing strategic documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory

Abstract A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets

This repository contains simulated outputs from superwell – a hydro-economic tool for long-term assessment of groundwater cost and supply – providing globally gridded groundwater extractable volumes and associated unit costs ($/km³) for accessible groundwater production, based on a variety of user-defined depletion and ponded depth scenarios. Key model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 Find the source code of the superwell model on GitHub: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Repository Overview Main output: superwell_outputs.7z contains 6 files (4.5 GB) named as superwell_py_deep_all_0.*PD_0.*DL.csv. These files present superwell outputs of global groundwater extraction volumes and cost estimates on a 0.5° scale for six scenarios with different Ponded Depth (PD; 0.3 and 0.6 m) and Depletion Limit (DL; 5%, 25%, and 40% of available volume) targets over the entire pumping lifetime of a grid cell superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_sample_100.csv contains superwell outputs for 100 data points sampled to match the global inputs' distribution superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_Grid_72548.csv contains superwell output for a single grid cell concept_v5.png provides an overview of the superwell workflow Outputs Description year_number: year of pumping depletion_limit: set depletion limit (DL) as a volume fraction of total available groundwater Mappings: continent, country, gcam_basin_id, Basin_long_name, grid_id: geographic identifiers and basin information Inputs: grid_area (km²): area of the grid cell whyclass: hydrogeological classification of the aquifer permeability (m/day), porosity (%), total_thickness (m), depth_to_water (m): aquifer properties. The geo-processed input data has been published separately: https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Model outputs: orig_aqfr_sat_thickness (m), aqfr_sat_thickness (m): original and remaining/instantaneous saturated thickness of the aquifer hydraulic_conductivity (m/day), transmissivity (m²/day): hydraulic properties of the aquifer radius_of_influence (m), areal_extent (km²): well radius and area of influence from the center of the well number_of_wells (-): number of wells in a grid cell determined by a ratio of well area and grid area max_drawdown (m), drawdown (m), drawdown_interference (m): well and aquifer drawdown during extraction total_head (m): total lift for the groundwater (depth to water plus drawdown) total_well_length (m): total depth of wells drilled well_yield (m³/day): pumping rate or well yield power (kW), energy (kWh): power and energy required for pumping groundwater Volume Outputs: volume_produced_perwell (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_perwell (m³): production volume metrics per well volume_produced_allwells (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_allwells (m³): aggregate extraction volumes for all wells in a grid cell available_volume (m³): available groundwater in storage for the grid cell as determined by aquifer properties depleted_vol_fraction: fraction of total volume pumped over available volumes in a grid cell (same as depletion limit) Cost Outputs: well_installation_cost ($): well installation cost based on the hydrogeological complexity of the aquifer annual_capital_cost, maintenance_cost, nonenergy_cost ($): nonenergy costs energy_cost_rate ($/kWh): electricity rate energy_cost ($): energy cost of pumping groundwater total_cost_perwell ($), total_cost_allwells ($): total annual energy and non-energy cost for each and all wells in a grid cell a unit_cost ($/m³), unit_cost_per_km3 ($/km³), unit_cost_per_acreft ($/acre-ft): total cost of pumping a unit of groundwater, indicated for different spatial units Key Resources Model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. Input data: Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 superwell source code: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Cite as Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Yoon, J., Graham, N., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024). Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307832 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or Stephen Ferencz or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

Earth Systems↗
DOE OSTI2021

Affordable and Accessible Solar for All: Barriers, Solutions, and On-Site Adoption Potential

Solar energy technologies can be used as part of a suite of tools to reduce the energy burden of low-income customers, but to date, low- and moderate-income (LMI) customers have not adopted solar at the same rate as other income groups. This paper summarizes the barriers of LMI solar adoption related to finance and funding, community engagement, site suitability, policy and regulatory, and resilience and recovery and discusses existing and potential future solutions to address these barriers. In addition, we model future LMI on-site solar adoption, using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) dGen model. We model future scenarios assuming no changes in the current LMI solar policy and program environment, and we add two incentives to low-income households for adopting solar: a $\$$3,000 incentive and a full incentive (i.e., the full cost of a PV system). While we model a financial incentive, this dollar reduction in cost could also come from other efforts, for example, reductions in solar soft costs. We find that by 2050, 48-49% of LMI households adopt solar, resulting in $\$$69- $\$$101 billion in first year utility bill savings to these consumers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Physical Security of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize the security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD is leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions, including dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios are modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures are modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION OF PHYSICAL SECURITY EFFECTIVENESS BASED ON DYNAMIC FORCE-ON-FORCE MODELING

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants (NPPs). It reviews the conservatisms in conventional physical security posture and regulations. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). The dynamic assessment methodology leverages EMRALD to process results of force-on-force (FOF) simulations and crediting safety mitigation actions from probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models as well as diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) mitigation strategies. Timing information from these simulations are compared against the available time to perform mitigations obtained from Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5) simulations. To illustrate the methodology, a station blackout (SBO) attack scenario was modeled in commercially available FOF simulation tools. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes and as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD, and were dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. RELAP5 simulations incorporating human and hardware uncertainties were performed to estimate the distribution of time-to-core damage. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, plant mitigation strategies provide significantly high-likelihood of preventing radiological release. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Ifluence of crystallization and entrainment of cooler material on the emplacement of basaltic aa lava flows

A theoretical model is used to describe and investigate the effects of simultaneous crystallization, radiation loss, and entrainment of cooler material on the temperature of a well-mixed core of an active aa lava flow. Entrainment of crust, levee debris, and base material into the interior of active flows has been observed, but the degree of assimilation and the thermal consequences are difficult to quantify. The rate of entrainment can be constrained by supplementing the theoretical model with information on the crystallization along the path of the flow and estimation of the radiative loss from the flow interior. Application of the model is demonstrated with the 1984 Mauna Loa flow, which was erupted about 30 C undercooled. Without any entrainment of cooler material, the high crystallization rates would have driven temperatures in the core wall above temperatures measured by thermocouple and estimated from glass geothermometry. One plausible scenario for this flow, which agrees with available temperature and crystallinity measurements, has a high initial rate of entrainment during the first 8 hours of travel (a mass ratio of entrained material to fluid core of about 15% if the average temperature of the entrained material was 600 C), which counterbalances the latent heat from approximately 40% crystallization. In this scenario, the model suggests an additional 5% crystallization and a 5% entrainment mass ratio over the subsequent 16-hour period. Measurements of crystallization, radiative losses, and entrainment factors are necessary for understanding the detailed thermal histories of active lava flows.

Crisp, Joy↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Optimization of Physical Security Posture of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes an ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD was leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions including the dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios were modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Moving-Wave Implementation in WRF to Study the Impact of Surface Water Waves on the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Abstract While numerous modeling studies have focused on the interaction of ocean surface waves with the atmospheric boundary layer, most employ idealized waves that are either monochromatic or synthetically generated from a theoretical wave spectrum, and the atmospheric solvers are typically incompressible. To study wind–wave coupling in real-world scenarios, a model that can simulate both realistic meteorological and wave conditions is necessary. In this paper we describe the implementation of a moving bottom boundary condition into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for large-eddy simulation applications. We first describe the moving bottom boundary conditions within WRF’s pressure-based vertical coordinate system. We then validate our code with idealized test cases that have analytical solutions, including flow over a monochromatic wave with and without viscosity. Finally, we present results from turbulent flows over a moving monochromatic wave with different wave ages, and demonstrate satisfactory agreement of the wave growth rate with results from the literature. We also compare atmospheric stress and wind parameters from two physically equivalent cases. The first specifies a wind moving in the same direction as a propagating wave, while the second involves a stationary wave with the wind adjusted such that the wind relative to the wave is the same as in the first case. Results indicate that the velocity and Reynolds stress profiles for the two cases match, further validating the moving bottom implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗