A Stochastic Composite Model to Understand the Impact of Rare, Colossal Interference in HPC Systems
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Computer Science↗
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Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach
U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
SAIL Field Campaign X-Band Precipitation Radar Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) Value-Added Product Report
In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility procured 3- and 5-cm wavelength radars for documenting the macrophysical, microphysical, and dynamical structure of precipitating systems. In order to maximize the scientific impact, ARM supported the development of an application chain to correct for various phenomena in order to retrieve the lowest retrieved value on a Cartesian grid. This report details the motivation, science, and progress to date, as well as charting a path forward.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Finding Peas in the Early Universe with JWST
The Early Release Observations (EROs) of JWST beautifully demonstrate the promise of JWST in characterizing the universe at Cosmic Dawn. We analyze the Near Infrared Spectrograph ERO spectra of three z ~ 8 galaxies to determine their metallicities, gas temperatures, and ionization. These galaxies offer the first opportunity to understand the physical properties of Epoch-of-Reionization galaxies through detailed rest-optical emission-line spectroscopy. We show that these objects have metal abundances $12+\mathrm{log}[{\rm{O}}/{\rm{H}}]\,\approx$ 6.9–8.3, based on both the T e method and on a recent calibration of the R 23 metallicity indicator. Since the spectra are some of the earliest science data from JWST, we compare several line ratios with values expected from robust physics, to validate our measurement procedures. We compare the abundances and emission-line ratios to a nearby sample of Green Pea galaxies—a population of nearby emission-line galaxies whose UV properties resemble Epoch-of-Reionization galaxies, and which often have large Lyman continuum escape fractions. The JWST data show striking further similarities between these high-redshift galaxies and nearby Green Peas. The z ~ 8 galaxies span the metallicity range covered by Green Peas. They also show the compact morphology that is typical of emission-line-dominated galaxies at all redshifts. Based on these similarities with Green Peas, it is likely that these are the first rest-optical spectra of galaxies that are actively driving cosmological reionization.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Trajectory selection for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project
This paper describes the use of decision analysis to facilitate a group decision-making problem in the selection of trajectories for the two spacecraft of the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project. This NASA project includes the participation of some eighty scientists divided by specialization among eleven science teams. A set of thirty-two candidate trajectory pairs was developed by the Project in collaboration with the science teams. Each science team then ordinally ranked and assigned cardinal utility function values to the trajectory pairs. These data and statistics derived from collective choice rules were used by the scientists in selecting the preferred trajectory pair.
Dyer, J. S.↗
Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar: Current status and future directions. A report to the Committee on Earth Sciences, Space Studies Board, National Research Council
This report provides a context in which questions put forth by NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth (OMPTE) regarding the next steps in spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) science and technology can be addressed. It summarizes the state-of-the-art in theory, experimental design, technology, data analysis, and utilization of SAR data for studies of the Earth, and describes potential new applications. The report is divided into five science chapters and a technology assessment. The chapters summarize the value of existing SAR data and currently planned SAR systems, and identify gaps in observational capabilities needing to be filled to address the scientific questions. Cases where SAR provides complementary data to other (non-SAR) measurement techniques are also described. The chapter on technology assessment outlines SAR technology development which is critical not only to NASA's providing societally relevant geophysical parameters but to maintaining competitiveness in SAR technology, and promoting economic development.
Evans, D. L.↗
Setting priorities for space research: An experiment in methodology
In 1989, the Space Studies Board created the Task Group on Priorities in Space Research to determine whether scientists should take a role in recommending priorities for long-term space research initiatives and, if so, to analyze the priority-setting problem in this context and develop a method by which such priorities could be established. After answering the first question in the affirmative in a previous report, the task group set out to accomplish the second task. The basic assumption in developing a priority-setting process is that a reasoned and structured approach for ordering competing initiatives will yield better results than other ways of proceeding. The task group proceeded from the principle that the central criterion for evaluating a research initiative must be its scientific merit -- the value of the initiative to the proposing discipline and to science generally. The group developed a two-stage methodology for priority setting and constructed a procedure and format to support the methodology. The first of two instruments developed was a standard format for structuring proposals for space research initiatives. The second instrument was a formal, semiquantitative appraisal procedure for evaluating competing proposals. This report makes available complete templates for the methodology, including the advocacy statement and evaluation forms, as well as an 11-step schema for a priority-setting process. From the beginning of its work, the task group was mindful that the issue of priority setting increasingly pervades all of federally supported science and that its work would have implications extending beyond space research. Thus, although the present report makes no recommendations for action by NASA or other government agencies, it provides the results of the task group's work for the use of others who may study priority-setting procedures or take up the challenge of implementing them in the future.
Source record↗
Applications of Earth Remote Sensing in Response to Meteorological Disasters
NASA's Short-‐term Predic1on Research and Transi1on (SPoRT) Center supports the transi1on of unique NASA and NOAA research activities to the operational weather forecasing community. Our primary partners are NOAA's National Weather Service, their Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), and National Centers. These organizations predict natural hazards and also assist in the disaster assessment process, benefiting from remotely sensed data. In 2013, SPoRT continued to transition high resolution satellite imagery, derived products, and value-‐added analysis to WFO partners and NASA's Applied Sciences Program.
Molthan, Andrew L.↗
Kepler Instrument Performance: An In-Flight Update
The Kepler Mission is designed to detect the 80 parts per million (ppm) signal from an Earth-Sun equivalent transit. Such precision requires superb instrument stability on time scales up to 2 days and systematic error removal to better than 20 ppm. The sole scientic instrument is the Photometer, a 0.95 m aperture Schmidt telescope that feeds the 94.6 million pixel CCD detector array, which contains both Science and Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) CCDs. Since Kepler's launch in March 2009, we have been using the commissioning and science operations data to characterize the instrument and monitor its performance. We find that the in-flight detector properties of the focal plane, including bias levels, read noise, gain, linearity, saturation, FGS to Science crosstalk,and video crosstalk between Science CCDs, are essentially unchanged from their pre-launch values. Kepler'sunprecedented sensitivity and stability in space have allowed us to measure both short- and long- term effects from cosmic rays, see interactions of previously known image artifacts with starlight, and uncover several unexpected systematics that affect photometric precision. Based on these results, we expect to attain Kepler's planned photometric precision over 90% of the field of view.
CCD↗
A Strategic Framework to Support Scientific Communications for Mars Sample Return Science
The joint NASA/ESA Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign is a cornerstone of both agencies’ long-term scientific exploration strategy that will revolutionize our understanding of the history of Mars, the Solar System, and the potential for life beyond Earth. In 2023, findings from an Independent Review Board (IRB-2) emphasized the need for clear and compelling communication of MSR’s scientific and strategic value to Congress, the scientific community, and the public. In response, NASA’s Science Mission Directorate’s MSR IRB-2 Response Team (MIRT) acknowledged the critical need for strengthening and enhancing strategic communications to ensure mission success and public support.
R. L. Harris↗
ADEPT for Secondary Payloads
Deployable entry vehicles provide an enabling capability for large payloads at destinations across the solar system. The primary advantage of such systems derives from the fundamental limitation of available launch vehicle shroads preventing tried-and-true rigid aeroshell technology from being applied. However, little mission-pull exists for deployable entry vehicle technology for missions where the entry vehicle is the primary payload and can fit within available shrouds. The propensity toward applying rigid aeroshell technology is logical given that deployable concepts are higher risk and provide no marginal scientific benefit for missions where a rigid aeroshell is an option. A movement toward flying smaller spacecraft has emerged in recent years and is revealing novel applications for deployable entry vehicles as secondary payloads. Secondary payloads must minimize interference with the primary payload in order to ease accomodation. Advancements in small spacecraft technology have caught the attention of government entities who are now recognizing the high value proposition of small spacecraft for frequent, incremental technology development and science return rather than the traditional high cost and infrequent big-bang approaches. Worldwide, well over 200 small satellites (mass < 180 kg) have launched in recent years for such purposes as eduation, technology development, science, commerce, and defense. The Adaptable Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT), a mechanically-deployable entry vehicle technology, has been under development at NASA since 2011. An Ames Center Innovation Fund (CIF) proposal was recently awarded to study ADEPT for EDL of small payloads. The unique capability of ADEPT for small science payloads comes from its ability to stow within a slender volume and deploy passively to achieve a mass-efficient drag surface with a high heat rate capability. The low ballistic coefficient results in entry heating and mechanical loads that can be met by a revolutionary three-dimensionally woven carbon fabric supported with rib structures. This carbon fabric has test-proven capability as both primary structure and payload thermal protection. This presentation will inform the EDL community of the capability of ADEPT for delivery of small secondary payloads as well as provide status of on-going technology development activities. Results of a mission applications study for secondary payloads to Mars and Venus will be presented. A primary goal of these mission design activities is to integrate high-value verification approaches wherever possible. For example, for some mission applications it is possible to test in NASA arc jet facilities at full-scale. This enables endto- end thermostructural requirement verification with a single test. Another important challenge that needs to be solved is the reliability of the decelerator to achieve the desired shape using simple passive mechanical actuators (such as springs) that do not require power from the primary payload for deployment. A configuration of ADEPT is being prototyped and used to evaluate the functionality and reliability of the deployment mechanism through bench-top testing. The prototype will then be tested in a low speed wind tunnel in late 2014 to evaluate aerodynamic load-carrying capability and deflected shape. Results of the deployment testing and status of wind tunnel test plans will be discussed.
Smith, B.↗
A framework for forming thermoset polymer networks during laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing
It is commonly reported that the limited availability of material types is a major barrier to widespread adoption for polymer laser powder bed fusion (PBF/L) additive manufacturing (AM). A deeper understanding of the physico-chemical relationships between AM process stimuli and polymer responsive behavior is needed to make data-driven decisions for PBF/L specific material development and formulation. Many researchers have cumulatively built the current state of PBF/L “science-based manufacturing” framework where an initial guess for process parameter values can be determined from measured polymer properties and the first-principles of physics. However, published literature has focused on developing this framework for thermoplastic processing of polymers omitting many specific concerns unique to processing thermosetting materials. The authors consider in the present work the implications of many specific aspects unique to thermosetting polymers during PBF/L manufacturing. These aspects are contextually discussed according to the five sub-functions of PBF/L and are described mathematically where appropriate alongside example data from thermosetting materials commercially available in powder form. Further, this expansion of the prevailing material development framework to include thermosetting polymers paves the way for the unique performance properties offered by that class to be manifest through AM’s geometric freedom.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Capturing the Value: Earth Applications of Space Human Factors Research
This paper details how the Space Human Factors/Life Sciences program at Ames Research Center (ARC) has provided, and continues to provide, a variety of Earth-based benefits. These benefits will be considered under five categories: aeronautics, space-like environments, general applications, human/automation interaction, and methodology. The human factors work at ARC includes a range of activities whose products serve the aerospace community. Some areas of research focus specifically on aeronautical requirements; others are driven by space needs. However, the symbiosis between these two domains allows a sharing of resources, and the insights and experimental results gathered in one domain can often be applied in the other. Aeronautics is an industry whose survival is generally viewed as critical to American competitiveness, and where benefits can result in a very high payoff. The ability to apply space-initiated research to aeronautical requirements represents one example of bringing space benefits down to Earth. The second-order value of space human factors research goes well beyond the aerospace community. Spaceflight shares with a number of other activities certain environmental characteristics that drive human factors engineering design and procedural specification. Spaceflight is an isolated activity, conducted under severely confined conditions, with a high level of risk, and where provisions are restricted and opportunities for outside help are limited. A number of Earth-based activities including submarines and other naval vessels, oil rigs, remote weather stations, and scientific and polar expeditions, share many of these characteristics. These activities serve as testbeds for space-related research and, in turn, space-related research provides beneficial insight to the conduct of these activities.
Connors, Mary M.↗
Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers
Abstract The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower‐troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Exploring Fabrication of Ultra-low Absorption, Multilayer, Hafnium High Reflectors
Ultra-low absorption, high damage threshold coatings are critical for the advancement of the high power CW laser technologies, and in most cases, are a limiting factor for the output power. Since high power CW laser systems enable extremely high power irradiances, when the light is incident on an HR mirror, part of the energy is absorbed and converted into heat, which can have many detrimental side effects. The worst-case scenarios are optical distortion and laser-induced damage. These optics must operate reliably with irradiances of 100's kW/cm 2 to MW/cm 2 . The highest pulsed laser damage threshold high reflectors are consistently fabricated with hafnia material. However, hafnia is not the material of choice for high power CW laser systems because of very high absorption and scatter properties, factors of >100x higher than tantala-silica, due to its poly crystalline nature. This study focuses on CW laser use applications, where the coatings’ laser damage resistance is largely limited by the inherent absorption of the coating materials. The goal is to study the feasibility of utilizing a “composite” hafnium-silica and a “doped” hafnia-silica target materials to prohibit crystallization. The results from the study were extremely successful. Hafnia high reflectors coatings generated from this study exhibited one micron absorption values of approximately 1 ppm, which are the lowest reported values to date.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Mars sample return - Science
The possible scientific goals of a Mars sample return mission are reviewed, including the value of samples and the selection of sampling sites. The fundamental questions about Mars which could be studied using samples are examined, including planetary formation, differentiation, volcanism and petrogenesis, weathering, and erosion. Scenarios are presented for sample acquisition and analysis. Possible sampling methods and tools are discussed, including drilling techniques, types of rovers, and processing instruments. In addition, the possibility of aerocapture out of elliptical or circular orbit is considered.
Blanchard, Douglas P.↗
UAS Applications for Hurricane Science, Hurrican and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3)
Earth Science Industry Update: UAS Applications for Hurricane Science Unmanned systems can significantly transform hurricane observations and monitoring, improving our knowledge about and ability to forecast storm formation, track, and intensity change. NASA's use of the Global Hawk has demonstrated the scientific value of this platform and provided a proof-of-concept for operational applications. However, science flight operations face several challenges and constraints. In this session, learn about how NASA adapted the Global Hawk to do science; How NASA conducts its hurricane missions, and some of the challenges and constraints they face; Science results from NASA's recent hurricane field campaigns using the Global Hawk. How assimilation of dropsonde and radar data into weather prediction models may improve forecast accuracy; Other Earth science problems that could be addressed with Global Hawks.
Hurricane Science↗
Planning for the storm: Considering renewable energy for critical infrastructure resilience
This study uses the renewable energy optimization model to assess three critical facilities in North Carolina. Techno-economic results were then compared to analyses completed for critical facilities in California and New York to assess energy system cost effectiveness. Though solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays are cost-effective across each of the three North Carolina facilities, adopting battery storage to enable PV to operate with existing diesel generators in a hybrid energy system reduces the economic value of the system. This is in contrast to more economically viable systems in California and New York. All of these systems also offer unquantified resilience benefits by extending operation from hours to weeks across the facilities. If decision makers were able to value the resilience benefits offered by each system or utility rate structures were changed to incentivize battery storage during normal operations, it would impact these assessments. Even so, this analysis provides decision makers a key set of cost benchmarks when considering how they might improve resilience at their critical operations.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗