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At least 289 records · Page 16

Forecasting fluid-injection induced seismicity to choose the best injection strategy for safety and efficiency

Induced seismicity poses a challenge to the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Improving monitoring and forecasting techniques is essential to mitigate induced seismicity and thereby fostering a positive perception of EGS projects among local authorities and population. Induced seismicity is the result of complex and coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical mechanisms. Injection flux and pressure are crucial controlling parameters for both hydraulic stimulation and circulation protocols. We develop a methodology combining a hydro-mechanical model with a seismicity rate model to estimate the magnitude and frequency of mainshocks and aftershocks induced by fluid injection. We apply the methodology to the case of the Basel EGS (2006, Switzerland) to compare the effects of progressive, cyclic and constant injections on the mechanical response of discrete faults. Results from the coupled hydro-mechanical models show that the pore pressure diffusion and consequent enhancement of fault permeability are limited to the vicinity of the injection well during cyclic injection. Additionally, constant injection induces seismicity from the start of the injection but enhances the permeability of most of the faults within a shorter duration, inducing less post-injection seismicity. The methodology can be adapted to any numerical model and allows new projects to be developed by anticipating the safest injection protocol. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems’.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The 2022 Hunga eruption exercises the nuclear explosion monitoring community

The 2022 Hunga eruption was a global event recorded by all three Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) International Monitoring System (IMS) geophysical waveform sensor technologies: seismic, infrasound, and hydroacoustic. Large volcanic eruptions are rare and additionally present an opportunity to test seismoacoustic detection, location, and identification methods for nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Acoustic Holography of the Solar Convection Zone with SOHO-MDI Observations

The original grant with the title stated above was NAG5-10984, awarded to the Solar Physics Research Corporation (SPRC) in July, 2001, and was to be a three-year project. The basic theme of the project was the development and application of computational seismic holography for imaging, diagnostics, and monitoring of magnetic anomalies beneath active regions, in the deep solar interior, and on the Sun's far surface. The project was roughly separated into the following five tasks: (1) A holographic survey of active regions. (2) p-Mode absorption diagnostics of magnetic regions. (3) Acoustic modeling of the shallow subphotospheres of active regions and the quiet-Sun supergranulation based on phase-correlation seismic holography. (4) Seismic holography of the deep convection zone. (5) Improvements in holographic imaging of the far surface of the Sun. Following the death of Karen Harvey, President of SPRC, during the first year, the grant was transferred to Northwest Research Associates as NAG5-12901. Substantial but progress had been made on most of the above tasks in the first year under NAG5-10984, but none were completed. This work was continued under NAG5-12901.

Lindsey, Charles↗

Compressional wave velocity and effective stress in unsaturated soil: Potential application for monitoring moisture conditions in vadose zone sediments

Compressional seismic (P-wave) velocities were measured experimentally at different water potentials and confining pressure states using a variety of sediments collected from the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. P-wave velocity was measured in variably saturated sediments using ultrasonic piezoelectric transducers and water potential was measured with a heat dissipation sensor. We propose a model to relate changes in P-wave velocity to soil stress conditions using an effective stress formulation that includes capillary stress as well as adsorptive stress. We show that compressional wave velocities can be related to water potential and confining stress using a model with five fitted parameters. A single set of parameters provides an excellent fit to data acquired from all of the sediment samples. Under very dry conditions, corresponding to low water potentials, water flow occurs in adsorptive thin films associated with very low unsaturated hydraulic conductivities. The results presented here suggest the utility of seismic methods for establishing low water potential and flow conditions within variably saturated Hanford formation sediments and providing feedback on the performance of mitigation efforts such as soil desiccation and surface infiltration barriers. Seismic methods can provide minimally invasive, three-dimensional information on relevant flow conditions in vadose zone sediments as well as changes that occur over time.

Linneman, Dorothy C.↗

Applying Waveform Correlation to Reduce Seismic Analyst Workload Due to Repeating Mining Blasts

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high–quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment to detect and identify mining blasts for two regions, Wyoming (U.S.A.) and Scandinavia, using waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear–Test–Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) for up to 10 yr prior to the time of interest. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for characterizing mining blasts using a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to one week of data for each of the two regions to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be generally applied to operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. Here, we compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to assess potential reduction in analyst workload.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations play a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Risk and uncertainty assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. In this review, the use and progress of risk assessment for GCS over the last few decades are examined. Here, we use the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP), which is one of the seven regional partnerships supported by the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. Additionally, future trends and requirements for risk assessment in GCS are discussed. The information provided in this review can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply it effectively in large-scale GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Seismic Signature of a High-Energy Density Physics Laboratory and Its Potential for Measuring Time-Dependent Velocity Structure

The Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories is a pulsed power facility for high-energy density physics experiments that can shock materials to extreme temperatures and pressures through a focused energy release of up to ~ 25 MJ in < 100 nanoseconds. It has been in operation for more than two decades and conducts up to ~ 100 experiments, or “shots,” per year. Based on a set of 74 known shot times from 2018, we determined that Z Machine shots produce detectable ~ 3–17 Hz ground motion 12 km away at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, New Mexico (ANMO), borehole seismograph, with peak signal at ~ 7 Hz. The known shot waveforms were used to create a three-component template, leading to the detection of 2339 Z Machine shots since 1998 through single-station cross-correlation. Local seismic magnitude estimates range from local magnitude (M L ) —2 to —1.3 and indicate that only a small fraction of the shot energy is transmitted by seismic phases observable at 12 km distance. The most recent major facility renovation, which was intended to decrease mechanical dissipation, is associated with an abrupt decrease in observed seismic amplitudes at ANMO despite stable maximum shot energy. The highly repetitive impulsive sources are well suited to coda-wave interferometry to investigate time-dependent velocity structures. Relative velocity variations (dv/v) show an annual cycle with amplitude of ~ 0.2%. Local minima are observed in the late spring, and dv/v increases through the summer monsoon rainfall, possibly reflecting patchy saturation as rainfall infiltrates near the eastern edge of the Albuquerque basin. Importantly, the cumulative results demonstrate that forensic seismology can provide insight into long-term operation of facilities such as pulsed-power laboratories, and that their recurring signals may be valuable for studies of time-dependent structure

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feasibility of using in situ deformation to monitor CO 2 storage

Deformation during CO 2 injection can lead to problems, like seismicity or fluid leaks, but small strains have the potential to be a useful signal for monitoring. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the possible evolution of the strain field during injection, and then assess existing and emerging techniques for measuring the strain field. Poroelastic analyses show that normal strains caused by injection into a reservoir are tensile in the vicinity of the well, but everywhere else at least one strain component is compressive. The vertical strain is compressive in the confining unit, and the radial strain decreases and changes sign from tensile to compressive with distance from the well. Tilting is away from the injection well at the ground surface, but it is towards the well overlying the reservoir. Methods for measuring in-situ strain include instruments that are grouted in the annulus between casing and wall rock (~ 0.1 microstrain resolution), portable strain sensors that are temporarily clamped to the borehole wall (~0.01 microstrain resolution), and strainmeters that are grouted in place (~0.001 microstrain resolution). Instruments for measuring in-situ normal strains at the magnitudes and rates expected during injection are emerging, but they have yet to be fully evaluated in applications related to CO 2 storage. Finally, in-situ strain data measured with emerging instruments promises to fill an important gap between the episodes of fast strain rates measured by seismic data, and the slow strains measured over relatively long periods of time by InSAR and GPS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessing the Value of Seismic Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) Attributes for CO2 Storage Project Using a Bayesian Network Model for Decision Support

Attributes versus offset (AVO) are a set of measurements to analyze how the characteristics of reflected seismic waves change as a function of the offset. It can be useful for monitoring CO2 storage sites because the presence of leaked CO2 into the overlying aquifer can change the properties of the rocks and pore fluids composition that can alter the way seismic waves reflect and their amplitudes. The time-lapse changes in AVO attributes derived from repeat seismic surveys can help identify anomalies or shifts in the subsurface that could potentially be used as an indicator for CO2 leak detection. Our study leverages multiple seismic attributes derived from synthetic seismic data and Bayesian network model to quantify the probability of leak detection in the overlying aquifer above the storage reservoir. It helps to quantify the value of individual seismic attributes at multiple monitoring periods based upon their sensitivities.

Kumar, Abhash↗

Utah FORGE Project 3-2417: Meteorological Data During 2024 Stimulation

This preliminary data archive includes meteorological data recorded at the Utah FORGE facility over the period of time including the 16A/16B stimulation activities, largely March/April/May of 2024. This information may prove useful for understanding seismic and other instrumentation response during monitoring. The bulk of relevant stimulation activities occurred between March 25th and April 28th, 2024 and the included files span this period. All sensors were installed at the 78-16 pad and hence reflect weather state at the site. This dataset was acquired by the FOGMORE R&D project (Fiber Optic MOnitoring for Reservoir Evolution), Utah FORGE R&D Project 3-2417.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Finding, Organizing, and Preserving Legacy Nuclear Test Monitoring Data—Examples from the Livermore Nevada Network

A challenge for geophysical research is the relatively short time for which continuous digital data have been available. There are many events of research interest where much of the data were collected by analog or temporary digital means. These legacy data require special efforts to find, organize, and preserve for future research. Here, we focus on one type of legacy data, nuclear explosions, and associated events (e.g., collapses, aftershocks) of high interest for nuclear monitoring research and development. For nuclear tests conducted in Nevada, the Lawrence Livermore Nevada Network recorded valuable data on a variety of formats. In this article, we briefly review this network, and describe one set of data that previously was available via CD-ROM by request, and since 2018 has become available through Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology as assembled dataset 18-001.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

3D Crustal Tomography Model of Utah

The ability to accurately locate seismic events is necessary for treaty monitoring. When using techniques that rely on the comparison of observed and predicted travel times to obtain these locations, it is important that the estimated travel times and their estimated uncertainties are also accurate. The methodology of Ballard et al. (2016a) has been used in the past to generate an accurate 3D tomographic global model of compressional wave slowness (the SAndia LoS Alamos 3D tomography model, i.e. SALSA3D). To re-establish functionality and to broaden the capabilities of the method to local distances, we have applied the methodology of Ballard et al. (2016a) to local data in Utah. This report details the results of the initial model generated, including relocations performed using analyst picked mining events at West Ridge Mine and three ground-truth events at Bingham Mine. We were successfully able to generate a feasible tomography model that resulted in reasonable relocations of the mining events.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quantitative Risk Assessment (Topical Report)

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations plays a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Quantitative risk assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. We present the use, progress, and research trends of risk assessment from the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. The information provided in this report can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply them effectively in large-scale CCUS projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electromagnetic inversion for a baseline conductivity model at the Kemper CarbonSAFE site

Geophysics is one component of a successful monitoring strategy for carbon storage sites. Seismic surveys are a common element of these strategies, with repeat surveys occurring about every 5 years. However, seismic is expensive, the sensitivity to CO2 saturation is limited, and it requires a large footprint on the surface (Yurikov et al., 2022). Electromagnetic (EM) methods offer repeat surveys at a significantly lower cost, the ability to utilize airborne methods to increase coverage, and potentially provide enough information to increase the time between seismic surveys. Specifically, we focus on semi-airborne EM, with a grounded dipole transmitter, and airborne magnetic field receivers as described and modeled in Kohnke et al. (2023).

Kohnke, Colton↗

Operational Lessons Learned from NASA Analog Missions

National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) efforts in human space flight are currently focused on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) programs, with efforts beginning on the future exploration opportunities. Both the Space Shuttle and ISS programs are important to the development of a capability for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The ISS provides extensive research capabilities to determine how the human body reacts to long duration stays in space. Also, the ISS and Shuttle can serve as a limited testbed for equipment or entire systems that may be used on missions to the Moon, Mars, or to a near-Earth asteroid. It has been nearly 35 years since the Apollo astronauts visited the Moon. Future space explorers will have to re-learn how to work and live on planetary surfaces, and how to do that for extended periods of time. Exploration crews will perform a wide assortment of scientific tasks, including material sampling and emplacement of automated instruments. Surface mission operations include the activities of the crew living and working, mission support from the Earth, and the operation of robotic and other remotely commanded equipment on the surface and in planetary orbit. Other surface activities will include the following: exploring areas surrounding a habitat; using rovers to collect rock and soil samples; setting up experiments on the surface to monitor the radiation environment and any seismic or thermal activity; and conducting scientific analyses and experiments inside a habitat laboratory. Of course, the astronauts will also have to spend some of their surface time "doing chores" and maintaining their habitat and other systems. In preparation for future planetary exploration, NASA must design the answers to many operational questions. What will the astronauts do on the surface? How will they accomplish this? What tools will they require for their tasks? How will robots and astronauts work together? What vehicle and system capabilities are required to support the activities? How will the crew and the Earth-based mission control team interact? During the initial phases of manned planetary exploration, one challenge in particular is virtually the same as during the Apollo program: How can scientific return be maximized during a relatively short surface mission? Today, NASA is investigating solutions to these challenges by conducting analog missions. These Earth-based missions possess characteristics that are analogous to missions on the Moon or Mars. These missions are excellent for testing operational concepts, and the design, configuration, and functionality of spacesuits, robots, rovers, and habitats. Analog mission crews test specific techniques and procedures for surface field geology, biological sample collection, and planetary protection. The process of actually working an analog mission reveals a myriad of small details, which either contribute to or impede efficient operations, many of which would never have been thought about otherwise. It also helps to define the suite of tools, containers, and other small equipment that surface explorers will use. This paper focuses on how analog missions have addressed selected operational considerations for future planetary missions.

Arnold, Larissa S.↗

Characterization and Evaluation of Scintillating Fiber System Components

Idaho National Laboratory is studying long scintillation fibers (SF) in a project called “TRIPWIRE” which aims to verify containment in inaccessible nuclear waste repositories. This system will continuously monitor ionizing radiation, electromagnetic fields, and seismic activity in the vicinity of nuclear waste. Previous experiments have determined a better alternative to long SF is to couple shorter SF to kilometer scale optical fiber (OF) to reach electronics far outside of the repository. Minor signal attenuation from coupling these fibers has been observed using optical spectrometry. This experiment characterized two photomultiplier tubes (PMT) to reduce this loss by matching their spectral response characteristics to the SF’s emission spectrum. The experiment created a comparison between the two PMTs showing results that suggest other characteristics are playing a major role in improving signal attenuation when the SF is coupled to OF.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗