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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Battery Storage Evaluation Tool, version 1.x

The battery storage evaluation tool developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is used to run a one-year simulation to evaluate the benefits of battery storage for multiple grid applications, including energy arbitrage, balancing service, capacity value, distribution system equipment deferral, and outage mitigation. This tool is based on the optimal control strategies to capture multiple services from a single energy storage device. In this control strategy, at each hour, a lookahead optimization is first formulated and solved to determine the battery base operating point. The minute-by-minute simulation is then performed to simulate the actual battery operation.

Wu, Di↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using radar observations to evaluate 3-D radar echo structure simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the Department of Energy has a goal of addressing challenges in understanding the global water cycle. Success depends on correct simulation of cloud and precipitation elements. However, lack of appropriate evaluation metrics has hindered the accurate representation of these elements in general circulation models. We derive metrics from the three-dimensional data of the ground-based Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over the US to evaluate both horizontal and vertical structures of precipitation elements. We coarsened the resolution of the radar observations to be consistent with the model resolution and improved the coupling of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) and E3SM Atmospheric Model Version 1 (EAMv1) to obtain the best possible model output for comparison with the observations. Three warm seasons (2014–2016) of EAMv1 simulations of 3-D radar reflectivity features at an hourly scale are evaluated. A general agreement in domain-mean radar reflectivity intensity is found between EAMv1 and NEXRAD below 4 km altitude; however, the model underestimates reflectivity over the central US, which suggests that the model does not capture the mesoscale convective systems that produce much of the precipitation in that region. The shape of the model-estimated histogram of subgrid-scale reflectivity is improved by correcting the microphysical assumptions in COSP. Different from previous studies that evaluated modeled cloud top height, we find the model severely underestimates radar reflectivity at upper levels – the simulated echo top height is about 5 km lower than in observations – and this result is not changed by tuning any single physics parameter. For more accurate model evaluation, a higher-order consistency between the COSP and the host model is warranted in future studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation and Validation Approaches for Simulation of Social Behavior: Challenges and Opportunities

While models of social systems have grown in scope to represent increasingly complex phenomena, efforts to validate these models against observations suffer from a number of challenges that include the lack of shared approaches, the use of single-dimensional evaluation criteria, and the difficulty in evaluating causal mechanisms. Moreover, current evaluation approaches suffer from sensitivity of the existing measurements to initial conditions and model assumptions, and failure to account for uncertainty. These effects lead to the lack of generalizability to new contexts, inability to replicate the validation approach for new models, and difficulties in interpretation of validation results. These challenges can be addressed by building a set of diverse and robust evaluation metrics and by developing best practices for comparative, reproducible validation of varied social simulation approaches against real-world data. Herein, we outline several best practices for data-drive model validation, such as defining evaluation strategies consistent with the intended use case and defining broad comparison criteria to highlight both model strengths and weaknesses. Leveraging common validation practices will enable robust analysis of simulation performance across diverse social scenarios and modeling approaches.

Saldanha, Emily G.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Three-dimensional simulations of pure deflagration models for thermonuclear supernovae

We present a systematic study of the pure deflagration model of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) using three-dimensional, high-resolution, full-star hydrodynamical simulations, nucleosynthetic yields calculated using Lagrangian tracer particles, and light curves calculated using radiation transport. We evaluate the simulations by comparing their predicted light curves with many observed SNe Ia using the SALT2 data-driven model and find that the simulations may correspond to under-luminous SNe Iax. We explore the effects of the initial conditions on our results by varying the number of randomly selected ignition points from 63 to 3500, and the radius of the centered sphere they are confined in from 128 to 384 km. We find that the rate of nuclear burning depends on the number of ignition points at early times, the density of ignition points at intermediate times, and the radius of the confining sphere at late times. The results depend primarily on the number of ignition points, but we do not expect this to be the case in general. The simulations with few ignition points release more nuclear energy E{sub nuc}, have larger kinetic energies E{sub K}, and produce more {sup 56}Ni than those with many ignition points, and differ in the distribution of {sup 56}Ni, Si, and C/O in the ejecta. For these reasons, the simulations with few ignition points exhibit higher peak B-band absolute magnitudes M{sub B} and light curves that rise and decline more quickly; their M{sub B} and light curves resemble those of under-luminous SNe Iax, while those for simulations with many ignition points are not.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Evaluation of Next-Generation Grid Automation and Controls with High PV Penetration

This paper presents a hardware-in-the-loop (BIL) simulation to evaluate the performance of an advanced grid automation architecture, referred to as data-enhanced hierarchical control (DEHC), in achieving voltage regulation and conservation voltage reduction (CVR) in distribution networks with very high photovoltaic (PV) generation. This architecture comprises an advanced distribution management system (ADMS), a distributed energy resource management system (DERMS), and grid-edge devices working synergistically to provide the grid benefits. The HIL setup used for the evaluation includes ADMS, DERMS, and grid-edge devices. The DEHC performance is evaluated in two representative scenarios considering loose and tight constraints of the power factor at the substation. The results show that the DEHC architecture is effective in achieving voltage regulation and CVR and thus enables the grid integration of high levels of PV generation.

ADMS↗
DOE OSTI2019

How Much Water Is Evaporated Across California? A Multiyear Assessment Using a Biophysical Model Forced With Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Abstract California is expected to experience great spatial/temporal variations evaporation. These variations arise from strong north‐south, east‐west gradients in rainfall and vegetation, strong interannual variability in rainfall (±30%) and strong seasonal variability in the supply and demand for moisture. We used the Breathing Earth System Simulator to evaluate the rates and sums of evaporation across California, over the 2001–2017 period. Breathing Earth System Simulator is a bottom‐up, biophysical model that couples subroutines that calculate the surface energy balance, photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance. The model is forced with high‐resolution remote sensing data (1 km).The questions we address are as follows: How much water is evaporated across the natural and managed ecosystems of California? How much does evaporation vary during the booms and busts in annual rainfall? and Is evaporation increasing with time due to a warming climate? Mean annual evaporation, averaged over the 2001–2017 period, was relatively steady (393 ± 21 mm/year) given the high interannual variation in precipitation (519 ± 140 mm/year). No significant trend in evaporation at the statewide level was detected over this time period, despite a background of a warming climate. Irrigated agricultural crops and orchards, at 1‐km scale, use less water than inferred estimates for individual fields. This leaves the potential for sharing water, a scarce resource, more equitably among competing stakeholders, for example, farms, fish, people, and ecosystems.

Baldocchi, Dennis↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cold Commissioning Simulant Selection for the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment Plant LAW Facility - 18465

Commissioning the Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Facility of the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will require large volumes (∼2,000,000 liters) of a non-radioactive, chemically analogous waste simulant. Cold commissioning will provide for operator training in an integrated facility, demonstration of mechanical process equipment capacity, environmental performance demonstration of emissions control systems, and process control systems shakedown and tuning. Selection of the cold commissioning simulant is following a structured four-phase process to arrive at the preferred composition and recipe. Phases I, II and III are complete. Phase I laid the framework for decision making with preparation of a Project Management Plan, an update to the Simulant Development, Approval, Validation, and Documentation procedure, and a kickoff meeting to gather stakeholder input into the simulant definition and selection criteria. Phase II consisted of a comprehensive literature search and compilation of LAW simulant recipes, followed by initial screening against the selection criteria identified in Phase I. This process identified 72 candidate simulant recipes and down-selected 9 for further study. Phase III studies involved a) statistical comparisons of the similarity of candidate simulant compositions to the tank waste feed vector, b) process modelling of the commissioning sequence with each simulant to estimate glass former and simulant material consumption, offgas and effluent volumes and compositions, and product glass volumes and compositions, and c) evaluation of simulants against the immobilized LAW glass composition algorithm to determine allo able waste loading to ensure compliance with product specifications and process constraints. The results of these studies identified two of the candidate recipes to be carried forward to full-scale testing. Phase IV consists of testing these two recipes at vendor facilities to determine scalability, fabricability, and stability of the simulants when produced at industrial scale. Scalability is the ability to take a recipe from bench scale (1 to 40 liters) batch size to full scale (>35,000 liters) batch size. Fabricability is the ability of a recipe to be prepared in large batches without the need for complex or expensive mechanical equipment, heating, or cooling systems. Stability is the ability of a simulant to withstand long term storage and variations in environmental conditions without unacceptable changes in key characteristics (the set of chemical, physical, and rheological parameters that the simulant is intended to exhibit during cold commissioning tests). Simulants will also be tested for compatibility with other startup material (i.e., frit), tuning simulants, and environmental performance demonstration test spiking solutions to ensure against unexpected situations. Using a structured process is essential when making high impact decisions such as waste simulant selection. Proper planning and a clear explanation of how the decision process will unfold is key to obtaining stakeholder buy-in as more information is gathered. The documentation resulting from this structured selection process will be compiled and summarized in a Cold Commissioning Simulant Definition deliverable due to the Department of Energy 24 months before the start of Cold Commissioning. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Solids Erosion Patterns Developed by Pulse Jet Mixers

Millions of gallons of radioactive waste are stored in underground storage tanks at the Hanford Site in Washington State. This waste will be vitrified at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant that is under construction. Vessels in the pretreatment portion of the plant are being configured for processing waste slurries with challenging physical and rheological properties that range from Newtonian slurries to non-Newtonian sludge. Pulse jet mixing technology has been selected for mobilizing and mixing this waste. In the pulse jet mixing process, slurry is expelled from pulse tube nozzles directed towards the vessel floor. The expelled fluid forms a radial jet that erodes the settled layer of solids. The pulse tubes are configured in a ring or multiple rings and operate concurrently. The expelled fluid and mobilized solids traverse toward the center of the tank. At the tank center the jets from pulse tubes in the ring collide and lift solids upward in a central plume. At the end of the pulse, when the desired fluid volume is expelled from the pulse tube, the applied pressure switches to suction and the pulse tube is refilled. This cycle is used to mobilize and mix the tank contents. An initial step of the process is the erosion of solids from the vessel floor by the radial jets that form on the vessel flow beneath each pulse tube. Experiments have been conducted using simulants to evaluate the ability of the pulse jet mixing system radial jets to combine to develop the central upwell and lift solids into the vessel. These experiments have been conducted at three scales using a range of granular simulants over a range of concentrations. The vessels have elliptical, spherical, or flanged and dished bottoms. Process parameters evaluated include the velocity of fluid expelled from the pulse tube, the duration of the pulse and the duty cycle, the ratio of pulse duration to cycle time. Videos taken from beneath the vessel show the growth of the cleared area from each pulse tube as a function of time. All solids are lifted from the vessel bottom when the system is operating at the critical suspension velocity. The focus of this paper is to compare and contrast erosion patterns developed from different simulants and pulse tube configurations. The cases are evaluated to determine how changes in process parameters affects the PJM ability to mobilize solids from the vessel floor.

erosion↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transactive Emergency Power Allocation

The devastating impacts of extreme weather events, many of which are climate-change related, are increasingly evident through the frequency and duration of outages on power grids, especially the distribution systems. One of the major modern-day concerns of utilities is dealing with such extreme supply outages where operators have used rolling blackouts as a contingency plan balance supply and demand while serving critical loads. Such events have significant repercussions social and economic costs. Such blackouts practices are a blunt instrument, depriving customers with low-capacity high-priority loads (i.e. refrigeration, water, telecommunication, etc.) that provide high marginal amenity. Our contribution presented in this work is a transactive emergency allocation mechanism that would provide some minimum level of service to all of the customers while enabling preference-based trading of this initial allocation. This is in contrast to the state-of-art TE mechanisms that allocate resources to customers solely based on their willingness-to-pay. The effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is demonstrated through simulation-based evaluation on a prototypical distribution system experiencing 12-hour scarcity-based emergency event due to extreme operating conditions. Simulation results clearly demonstrate the capability of the proposed transactive emergency allocation mechanism in effectively utilizing the available energy and providing some level of service to all customers to operate their high-priority loads throughout the extreme scarcity event while being economically efficient in allowing trading of allocation based on customer preferences.

transactive energy, power system economics, emerge↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transactive Energy Rationing in Islanded Electric Power Systems

Extreme weather events, many of which are climate change related, are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity and causing catastrophic outages. One of the major modern-day concerns of utilities is dealing with such extreme outages and consequently, its repercussions on the lives of people in society and social aspects. Traditionally, operators have been using rolling blackouts as a contingency plan to serve critical loads during such events when electricity supply is scarce. However, such blackouts practices are executed on a last-minute mandatory basis, depriving customers having low-capacity high priority loads (i.e. refrigeration, water, telecommunication, etc) that should also be serviced if at all possible. Historically, policymakers have often adopted quota-based regulatory actions or rationing for other commodities (such as gasoline, butter, sugar) to handle scarcity situations. Motivated from such quota based systems, our contribution presented in this work is an alternative transactive rationing mechanism that would provide some minimum level of service to all of the customers and serve the critical loads using market-based control during such scarcity-based contingencies. This is in contrast to the state-of-art TE mechanisms that allocate resources to customers solely based on their willingness-to-pay. The effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is demonstrated through simulation-based evaluation on two real-life use cases having feeder-level and microgrid-level configurations respectively. The simulation results clearly demonstrate the capability of the rationing scheme to serve customers’ high-priority loads through prolonged outages even during extreme scarcity scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

MPAS-Analysis

MPAS-Analysis is a software package designed to process and analyze output data of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) Ocean, Sea-Ice and Land-Ice model components. It is built primarily on the python language, with remapping of model unstructured-grid fields onto regular grids performed through the ESMF package, and with the computation of climatologies performed through the NCO package. The main purpose of MPAS-Analysis is to analyze the MPAS simulations in terms of ocean and ice metrics, in comparison with available observations, and therefore provide an accurate model evaluation and simulation assessment.

Veneziani, Milena↗
DOE OSTI2015

RACORO continental boundary layer cloud investigations. 2. Large-eddy simulations of cumulus clouds and evaluation with in-situ and ground-based observations

A 60-hour case study of continental boundary layer cumulus clouds is examined using two large-eddy simulation (LES) models. The case is based on observations obtained during the RACORO Campaign (Routine Atmospheric Radiation Measurement [ARM] Aerial Facility [AAF] Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths [CLOWD] Optical Radiative Observations) at the ARM Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plains site. The LES models are driven by continuous large-scale and surface forcings, and are constrained by multi-modal and temporally varying aerosol number size distribution profiles derived from aircraft observations. We compare simulated cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties with ground-based remote sensing and aircraft observations. The LES simulations capture the observed transitions of the evolving cumulus-topped boundary layers during the three daytime periods, and generally reproduce variations of droplet number concentration with liquid water content (LWC), corresponding to the gradient between the cloud centers and cloud edges at given heights. The observed LWC values fall within the range of simulated values; the observed droplet number concentrations are commonly higher than simulated, but differences remain on par with potential estimation errors in the aircraft measurements. Sensitivity studies examine the influences of bin microphysics versus bulk microphysics, aerosol advection, supersaturation treatment, and aerosol hygroscopicity. Simulated macrophysical cloud properties are found to be insensitive in this non-precipitating case, but microphysical properties are especially sensitive to bulk microphysics supersaturation treatment and aerosol hygroscopicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance Evaluation of Data-Enhanced Hierarchical Control for Grid Operations

This paper presents a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation to evaluate the performance of voltage regulation of Data-Enhanced Hierarchical Control (DEHC). This DEHC uses an advanced distribution management system (ADMS) for grid operations to control legacy and grid-edge devices and coordinate with distributed energy management systems (DERMS) to manage high penetrations of photovoltaics (PV) on a utility distribution system. The HIL platform provides realistic laboratory testing, including accurate modeling (legacy devices, grid-edge devices, and PV) of the real-world distribution system from a utility partner, a real controller (ADMS), software controller DERMS, hardware grid-edge devices, and standard communications protocols. The test results demonstrate functionalities of the integrated platform and the performance of voltage regulation of the coordinated control systems. Based on laboratory testing, the utility can set up the same grid-automation system to manage DERs, legacy devices, and grid-edge devices to achieve their system-level control and operation objectives (e.g., voltage regulation), thus de-risking potential issues such as instability for field deployment.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Barracuda Software Package for Simulating Bubble Motion in Vibrating Liquid-Filled Containers

The commercial software package Barracuda, developed by CPFD Software for simulating particle-laden fluid flows, is evaluated as a means to simulate the motion of bubbles in vibrating liquid-filled containers. Demonstration simulations of bubbles rising due to buoyancy forces in a cylinder filled with silicone oil and angled at 0, 30, 45, and 60 degrees from the vertical were performed by CPFD Software. The results of these simulations are discussed, and the capabilities of Barracuda for simulating bubble motion are assessed. It was determined that at present Barracuda does not meet the needs of the desired application. Further developments that would enable its use for this application are highlighted.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Warm-phase microphysical evolution in large-eddy simulations of tropical cumulus congestus: evaluating drop size distribution evolution using polarimetry retrievals, in situ measurements, and a thermal-based framework

Owing to uncertainties in convective microphysics processes, improving parameterizations in Earth system models (ESMs) can benefit from observationally constrained cases suitable for scaling between cloud-resolving models and ESMs. We propose a benchmark large-eddy simulation (LES) cumulus congestus case study from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP 2 Ex) for evaluating and improving ESMs in single-column model (SCM) mode. We seek observational constraints using novel polarimetric retrievals and in situ cloud microphysics measurements. Simulations using bulk and bin microphysics initialized with observed aerosol profiles are compared to cloud-top retrievals of cloud droplet effective radius (R eff ), effective variance (ν eff ), and number concentration (N d ) from the airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). Both schemes reproduce characteristics of cloud-top N d and R eff that increase and decrease with altitude, respectively. Cloud-top N d is low-biased relative to RSP retrievals in both schemes, potentially due to limitations in both simulations and retrieval assumptions. Cloud-top R eff is low-biased in the bulk scheme but reasonably reproduced by the bin scheme. Profiles of N d and R eff are sensitive to the collision–coalescence process and the vertical variation in aerosol size distribution. Comparison of simulated and in situ droplet size distributions (DSDs) shows that, to first order, integrated moments are always sensitive to sizes < ~ 30 µm and can also be sensitive to larger sizes if the DSDs are sufficiently broad, with implications for the assumed maximum observed size retrieved by the RSP. The bin scheme captures the observed extended tail of the DSD, while the bulk scheme is unable to due to parametric constraints. Differences in expected relationships between in situ measurements of cloud cores and cloud-top retrievals by RSP demonstrate difficulty in constraining well the case presented herein. Finally, a thermal-tracking framework demonstrates that the dilution of N d throughout a thermal's lifetime is heavily determined by collision–coalescence and the height-varying aerosol distribution and that, in the absence of these, the impact of entrainment on diluting N d is largely offset by secondary activation. Implications for evaluating warm-phase convective microphysics schemes in ESMs and translating results for use on global, space-based polarimetry platforms are discussed.

Stanford, McKenna Wallace [Columbia Univ., New Yor↗
DOE OSTI2015

Collision prediction software for radiotherapy treatments

Purpose: This work presents a method of collision predictions for external beam radiotherapy using surface imaging. The present methodology focuses on collision prediction during treatment simulation to evaluate the clearance of a patient’s treatment position and allow for its modification if necessary. Methods: A Kinect camera (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) is used to scan the patient and immobilization devices in the treatment position at the simulator. The surface is reconstructed using the SKANECT software (Occipital, Inc., San Francisco, CA). The treatment isocenter is marked using simulated orthogonal lasers projected on the surface scan. The point cloud of this surface is then shifted to isocenter and converted from Cartesian to cylindrical coordinates. A slab models the treatment couch. A cylinder with a radius equal to the normal distance from isocenter to the collimator plate, and a height defined by the collimator diameter is used to estimate collisions. Points within the cylinder clear through a full gantry rotation with the treatment couch at 0° , while points outside of it collide. The angles of collision are reported. This methodology was experimentally verified using a mannequin positioned in an alpha cradle with both arms up. A planning CT scan of the mannequin was performed, two isocenters were marked in PINNACLE, and this information was exported to AlignRT (VisionRT, London, UK)—a surface imaging system for patient positioning. This was used to ensure accurate positioning of the mannequin in the treatment room, when available. Collision calculations were performed for the two treatment isocenters and the results compared to the collisions detected the room. The accuracy of the Kinect-Skanect surface was evaluated by comparing it to the external surface of the planning CT scan. Results: Experimental verification results showed that the predicted angles of collision matched those recorded in the room within 0.5°, in most cases (largest deviation −1.2°). The accuracy study for the Kinect-Skanect surface showed an average discrepancy between the CT external contour and the surface scan of 2.2 mm. Conclusions: This methodology provides fast and reliable collision predictions using surface imaging. The use of the Kinect-Skanect system allows for a comprehensive modeling of the patient topography including all the relevant anatomy and immobilization devices that may lead to collisions. The use of this tool at the treatment simulation stage may allow therapists to evaluate the clearance of a patient’s treatment position and optimize it before the planning CT scan is performed. This can allow for safer treatments for the patients due to better collision predictions and improved clinical workflow by minimizing replanning and resimulations due to unforeseen clearance issues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Advancing cloud lifecycle representation in numerical models using innovative analysis methods that bridge arm observations over a breadth of scales

From its location on the subtropics-midlatitude boundary, the Azores is influenced by both the subtropical high pressure and the midlatitude baroclinic storm regimes, and therefore experiences a wide range of cloud structures, from fair-weather scenes to stratocumulus sheets to deep convective systems. This project combined three types of data sets to study cloud variability in the Azores: a satellite analysis of cloud regimes, a reanalysis characterization of storminess, and a 19-month field campaign that occurred on Graciosa Island. Combined analysis of the three data sets provides a detailed picture of cloud variability and the respective dynamic influences, with emphasis on low clouds that constitute a major uncertainty source in climate model simulations. The satellite cloud regime analysis shows that the Azores cloud distribution is similar to the mean global distribution and can therefore be used to evaluate cloud simulation in global models. Regime analysis of low clouds shows that stratocumulus decks occur under the influence of the Azores high-pressure system, while shallow cumulus clouds are sustained by cold-air outbreaks, as revealed by their preference for post-frontal environments and northwesterly flows. An evaluation of CMIP5 climate model cloud regimes over the Azores shows that all models severely underpredict shallow cumulus clouds, while most models also underpredict the occurrence of stratocumulus cloud decks. It is demonstrated that carefully selected case studies can be related through regime analysis to climatological cloud distributions, and a methodology is suggested utilizing process-resolving model simulations of individual cases to better understand cloud-dynamics interactions and attempt to explain and correct climate model cloud deficiencies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗