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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

A Global Ozone Climatology from Ozone Soundings via Trajectory Mapping: A Stratospheric Perspective

This study explores a domain-filling trajectory approach to generate a global ozone climatology from sparse ozonesonde data. Global ozone soundings of 51,898 profiles at 116 stations over 44 years (1965-2008) are used, from which forward and backward trajectories are performed for 4 days, driven by a set of meteorological reanalysis data. Ozone mixing ratios of each sounding from the surface to 26 km altitude are assigned to the entire path along the trajectory. The resulting global ozone climatology is archived monthly for five decades from the 1960s to the 2000s with grids of 5 degree 5 degree 1 km (latitude, longitude, and altitude). It is also archived yearly from 1965 to 2008. This climatology is validated at 20 ozonesonde stations by comparing the actual ozone sounding profile with that found through the trajectories, using the ozone soundings at all the stations except one being tested. The two sets of profiles are in good agreement, both individually with correlation coefficients between 0.975 and 0.998 and root mean square (RMS) differences of 87 to 482 ppbv, and overall with a correlation coefficient of 0.991 and an RMS of 224 ppbv. The ozone climatology is also compared with two sets of satellite data, from the Satellite Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and the Optical Spectrography and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS). Overall, the ozone climatology compares well with SAGE and OSIRIS data by both seasonal and zonal means. The mean difference is generally under 20 above 15 km. The comparison is better in the northern hemisphere, where there are more ozonesonde stations, than in the southern hemisphere; it is also better in the middle and high latitudes than in the tropics, where assimilated winds are imperfect in some regions. This ozone climatology can capture known features in the stratosphere, as well as seasonal and decadal variations of these features. Furthermore, it provides a wealth of detail about longitudinal variations in the stratosphere such as the spring ozone maximum over the Canadian Arctic. It also covers higher latitudes than current satellite data. The climatology shows clearly the depletion of ozone from the 1970s to the mid 1990s and ozone recovery in the 2000s. When this climatology is used as the upper boundary condition in an Environment Canada operational chemical forecast model, the forecast is improved in the vicinity of the upper tropospherelower stratosphere region. As this ozone climatology is neither dependent on a priori data or photochemical modeling, it provides independent information and insight that can supplement satellite data and model simulations and enhance our understanding of stratospheric ozone.

SAGE↗
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

model predictions↗
NASA NTRS2015

Orbit Determination for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Using an Extended Kalman Filter

Since launch, the FDF has performed daily OD for LRO using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). GTDS is a batch least-squares (BLS) estimator. The tracking data arc for OD is 36 hours. Current operational OD uses 200 x 200 lunar gravity, solid lunar tides, solar radiation pressure (SRP) using a spherical spacecraft area model, and point mass gravity for the Earth, Sun, and Jupiter. LRO tracking data consists of range and range-rate measurements from: Universal Space Network (USN) stations in Sweden, Germany, Australia, and Hawaii. A NASA antenna at White Sands, New Mexico (WS1S). NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) stations. DSN data was sparse and not included in this study. Tracking is predominantly (50) from WS1S. The OD accuracy requirements are: Definitive ephemeris accuracy of 500 meters total position root-mean-squared (RMS) and18 meters radial RMS. Predicted orbit accuracy less than 800 meters root sum squared (RSS) over an 84-hour prediction span.

LRO↗
NASA NTRS2019

Hurricane Stalling Along the North American Coast and Implications for Rainfall

The average speed of tropical cyclone (TC) translation has slowed since the mid 20th century. Here we report that North Atlantic (NA) TCs have become increasingly likely to "stall" near the coast, spending many hours in confined regions. The stalling is driven not only by slower translation, but also by an increase in abrupt changes of direction. We compute residence-time distributions for TCs in confined coastal regions, and find that the tails of these distributions have increased significantly. We also show that TCs stalling over a region result in more rain on the region. Together, increased stalling and increased rain during stalls imply increased coastal rainfall from TCs, other factors equal. Although the data are sparse, we do in fact find a significant positive trend in coastal annual-mean rainfall 1948-2017 from TCs that stall, and we verify that this is due to increased stalling frequency. We make no attribution to anthropogenic climate forcing for the stalling or rainfall; the trends could be due to low frequency natural variability. Regardless of the cause, the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations.

tropical cyclone tracks↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

Lisa C Simonsen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Identification for Propellers at High Incidence Angles

Propellers used for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft propulsion systems experience a wide range of aerodynamic conditions, including large incidence angles relative to oncoming airflow. In oblique flow, propellers exhibit deviations in thrust and torque oriented along the propeller axis of rotation, as well as significant off-axis forces and moments. Although important for modeling eVTOL aircraft aerodynamics, sparse experimental data or mathematical models exist for propellers at incidence. This paper describes a propulsion system modeling methodology for the Langley Aerodrome No. 8 (LA-8) tandem tilt-wing, eVTOL aircraft. System identification methods are applied to isolated propeller wind tunnel data gathered across the vehicle's flight envelope to develop a mathematical model of the propulsion system, including a static motor model, dynamic motor model, and propeller aerodynamic model. Modeling results validated against data withheld from the modeling process indicate good predictive capability and agree with theoretical expectations. The results are followed by a discussion of model implementation strategies into high-fidelity eVTOL aircraft simulations.

system identification↗
NASA NTRS2021

Investigation of High Incidence Angle Propeller Aerodynamics for Subscale eVTOL Aircraft

Propellers used for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft propulsion systems experience a wide range of aerodynamic conditions, including significant incidence angles relative to oncoming airflow. Propellers in oblique flow exhibit deviations in thrust and torque oriented along their axis of rotation, as well as significant off-axis forces and moments. Although important for understanding eVTOL aircraft aerodynamics, sparse experimental data exist for propellers operating at incidence. This report describes an experimental wind tunnel study of isolated propeller aerodynamics across a wide range of flight conditions expected to be experienced by the LA-8 tandem tilt-wing, eVTOL aircraft. The experimental data obtained from the study are graphically presented and a discussion of observed aerodynamic phenomena is compared to theoretical expectations and past experimental work. The content of this report is intended to provide guidance to future propeller testing efforts and describe pertinent propeller aerodynamic behavior expected to be experienced by eVTOL vehicles.

propeller aerodynamics↗
NASA NTRS2021

System Identification for Propellers at High Incidence Angles

Propellers used for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft propulsion systems experience a wide range of aerodynamic conditions, including large incidence angles relative to oncoming airflow. In oblique flow, propellers exhibit deviations in thrust and torque oriented along the propeller axis of rotation, as well as significant off-axis forces and moments. Although important for modeling eVTOL aircraft aerodynamics, sparse experimental data or mathematical models exist for propellers at incidence. This paper describes a propulsion system modeling methodology for the LA-8 tandem tilt-wing, eVTOL aircraft. System identification methods are applied to isolated propeller wind tunnel data gathered across the vehicle's flight envelope to develop a mathematical model of the propulsion system, including a static motor model, dynamic motor model, and propeller aerodynamic model. Modeling results validated against data withheld from the modeling process indicate good predictive capability and agree with theoretical expectations. The results are followed by a discussion of model implementation strategies into high-fidelity eVTOL aircraft simulations.

system identification↗
NASA NTRS1981

The effects of missing data on global ozone estimates

The effects of missing data and model truncation on estimates of the global mean, zonal distribution, and global distribution of ozone are considered. It is shown that missing data can introduce biased estimates with errors that are not accounted for in the accuracy calculations of empirical modeling techniques. Data-fill techniques are introduced and used for evaluating error bounds and constraining the estimate in areas of sparse and missing data. It is found that the accuracy of the global mean estimate is more dependent on data distribution than model size. Zonal features can be accurately described by 7th order models over regions of adequate data distribution. Data variance accounted for by higher order models appears to represent climatological features of columnar ozone rather than pure error. Data-fill techniques can prevent artificial feature generation in regions of sparse or missing data without degrading high order estimates over dense data regions.

Drewry, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Robustness-Based Design Optimization Under Data Uncertainty

This paper proposes formulations and algorithms for design optimization under both aleatory (i.e., natural or physical variability) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., imprecise probabilistic information), from the perspective of system robustness. The proposed formulations deal with epistemic uncertainty arising from both sparse and interval data without any assumption about the probability distributions of the random variables. A decoupled approach is proposed in this paper to un-nest the robustness-based design from the analysis of non-design epistemic variables to achieve computational efficiency. The proposed methods are illustrated for the upper stage design problem of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle, where the information on the random design inputs are only available as sparse point and/or interval data. As collecting more data reduces uncertainty but increases cost, the effect of sample size on the optimality and robustness of the solution is also studied. A method is developed to determine the optimal sample size for sparse point data that leads to the solutions of the design problem that are least sensitive to variations in the input random variables.

Zaman, Kais↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D Geologic Framework Modelling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Site and Pajarito Plateau: Integrating a realistic 3D fault network and modelling subsurface relationships in a sparsely sampled and complex geologic region

The subsurface geology beneath the Pajarito Plateau is critical to understanding the seismic hazard of the Pajarito Fault System, yet our understanding of this geology is relatively poor. While previous 3D geologic framework models of the area have been created for the purposes of understanding hydrogeologic flow, they are inadequate for the purposes of understanding the Pajarito Fault System. The specific challenges of using oil and gas software for this purpose include: (1) the geologic complexities resulting from volcanism and tectonism; (2) a need for a high level of stratigraphic detail over a large area; (3) a near complete lack of seismic data; and (4) sparse wellbore data. Presented here is a workflow that handles these challenges of adapting commercially available software used by the oil and gas industries to this seismic hazard problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

A three-dimensional potential-flow program with a geometry package for input data generation

Information needed to run a computer program for the calculation of the potential flow about arbitrary three dimensional lifting configurations is presented. The program contains a geometry package which greatly reduces the task of preparing the input data. Starting from a very sparse set of coordinate data, the program automatically augments and redistributes the coordinates, calculates curves of intersection between components, and redistributes coordinates in the regions adjacent to the intersection curves in a suitable manner for use in the potential flow calculations. A brief summary of the program capabilities and options is given, as well as detailed instructions for the data input, a suggested structure for the program overlay, and the output for two test cases.

Halsey, N. D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Total ozone, ozone vertical distributions, and stratospheric temperatures at South Pole, Antarctica, in 1986 and 1987

Seventy-six electrochemical cell (ECC) ozonesondes were flown at South Pole, Antarctica, during 1987 in a continuing program to document year-round changes in Antarctica ozone that are dynamically and photochemically induced. Dobson spectrophotometer total ozone observations were also made. For the twilight months of March and September when Dobson instrument observations cannot be made at South Pole, total ozone amounts were deduced from the ECC ozonesonde soundings. ECC sonde total ozone data obtained during the polar night (April to August), supplemented the sparse total ozone data obtained from Dobson instrument moon observations. Similar ozone profile and total ozone observations were made at South Pole in 1986.

Komhyr, W. D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

powersqueeze

powersqueeze (psqz) is a truncated power iteration library intended for high-performance computing platforms. psqz efficiently produces low-dimensional, linear measurements of graph matrix spectra by combining classical power iteration with sparse Johnson-Lindenstrauss transforms. psqz is intended to produce high-quality, fast, data-oblivious low-dimensional representations of high-dimensional sparse data such as graphs and term-document matrices. psqz is intended to replace similar workflows that depend on directly approximating a truncated eigendecomposition (e.g., the first step of spectral clustering), which is a much more expensive operation.

Priest, BenjaminW [Lawrence Livermore National Lab↗
NASA NTRS1979

A summary of research on the NASA-Global Atmospheric Sampling Program performed by the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center

The annual variations of ozone near the tropopause are derived from aircraft exhibit year-to-year differences which are not explicitly accounted for by the simple, classical ozone transport theory. Phenomena such as tropopause lifting, interannual variations in the rates of stratospheric-tropospheric exchange and meridional mixing, contribute differently to the distribution of ozone in this altitude region. Ozone encounter climatologies have been represented by global maps which show the probabilities of exceeding ambient ozone levels of 200, 300, and 400 ppbV along flight routes during the year. Continuous ozone records obtained from the GASP system revealed the presence of gravity waves whose wavelength is of the order 20 km. The GASP data cannot, however, be utilized for the evaluation of horizontal fluxes of such quantities as ozone, sensible heat, and zonal momentum; the data are too sparsely and irregularly distributed for the computation of stable correlations. Multiple species data from the unique circumglobal flight of a Pan American airliner on 28-30 October 1977 are discussed with particular regard to the apparent interhemispheric differences in tropospheric species concentrations, variation between the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheres, to possible covariations between species, and to potential source regions for various constituents.

Falconer, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients for Wind Tunnel Data using a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network

A fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm. Basic aerodynamic coefficients (e.g. lift, drag, pitching moment) are modelled as functions of angle of attack and Mach number. The neural network is first trained on a relatively rich set of data from wind tunnel tests of numerical simulations to learn an overall model. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. A new set of data, which can be relatively sparse, is then supplied to the network to produce a new model consistent with the previous model and the new data. Because the new model interpolates realistically between the sparse test data points, it is suitable for use in piloted simulations. The genetic algorithm is used to choose a neural network architecture to give best results, avoiding over-and under-fitting of the test data.

Rajkumar, T.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evaporation over global oceans derived from satellite data and AGCM

Evaporation over ocean at 100 km has been estimated using operational satellite data. Recent satellite results are compared to data obtained through atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). A large systematic error is found in AGCM data which is considered to be due to overestimation of atmospheric moisture. It is suggested that the discrepancy may be caused by errors in operational infrared sounder data assimilated into the model. The error may also be caused by interpolation of very sparse in situ data in areas of sharp gradients.

Liu, W. T.↗