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At least 289 records · Page 16

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

A new second-order integration algorithm for simulating mechanical dynamic systems

A new integration algorithm which has the simplicity of Euler integration but exhibits second-order accuracy is described. In fixed-step numerical integration of differential equations for mechanical dynamic systems the method represents displacement and acceleration variables at integer step times and velocity variables at half-integer step times. Asymptotic accuracy of the algorithm is twice that of trapezoidal integration and ten times that of second-order Adams-Bashforth integration. The algorithm is also compatible with real-time inputs when used for a real-time simulation. It can be used to produce simulation outputs at double the integration frame rate, i.e., at both half-integer and integer frame times, even though it requires only one evaluation of state-variable derivatives per integration step. The new algorithm is shown to be especially effective in the simulation of lightly-damped structural modes. Both time-domain and frequency-domain accuracy comparisons with traditional integration methods are presented. Stability of the new algorithm is also examined.

Howe, R. M.↗

A lumped parameter mathematical model for simulation of subsonic wind tunnels

Equations for a lumped parameter mathematical model of a subsonic wind tunnel circuit are presented. The equation state variables are internal energy, density, and mass flow rate. The circuit model is structured to allow for integration and analysis of tunnel subsystem models which provide functions such as control of altitude pressure and temperature. Thus the model provides a useful tool for investigating the transient behavior of the tunnel and control requirements. The model was applied to the proposed NASA Lewis Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT) circuit and included transfer function representations of the tunnel supply/exhaust air and refrigeration subsystems. Both steady state and frequency response data are presented for the circuit model indicating the type of results and accuracy that can be expected from the model. Transient data for closed loop control of the tunnel and its subsystems are also presented, demonstrating the model's use as a control analysis tool.

Krosel, S. M.↗

A guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles

A midcourse guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles is described. A set of orbit elements, known as the equinoctial elements, are selected as the state variables. The uncertainties are modelled statistically by random vector and stochastic processes. The motion of the vehicle and the measurements are described by nonlinear stochastic differential and difference equations respectively. A minimum time nominal trajectory is defined and the equation of motion and the measurement equation are linearized about this nominal trajectory. An exponential cost criterion is constructed and a linear feedback guidance law is derived to control the thrusting direction of the engine. Using this guidance law, the vehicle will fly in a trajectory neighboring the nominal trajectory. The extended Kalman filter is used for state estimation. Finally a short mission using this system is simulated. The results indicate that this system is very efficient for short missions.

Tse, C. J. C.↗

Generation of linear dynamic models from a digital nonlinear simulation

The results and methodology used to derive linear models from a nonlinear simulation are presented. It is shown that averaged positive and negative perturbations in the state variables can reduce numerical errors in finite difference, partial derivative approximations and, in the control inputs, can better approximate the system response in both directions about the operating point. Both explicit and implicit formulations are addressed. Linear models are derived for the F 100 engine, and comparisons of transients are made with the nonlinear simulation. The problem of startup transients in the nonlinear simulation in making these comparisons is addressed. Also, reduction of the linear models is investigated using the modal and normal techniques. Reduced-order models of the F 100 are derived and compared with the full-state models.

Daniele, C. J.↗

Crack Growth Prediction Methodology for Multi-Site Damage: Layered Analysis and Growth During Plasticity

A finite element program has been developed to perform quasi-static, elastic-plastic crack growth simulations. The model provides a general framework for mixed-mode I/II elastic-plastic fracture analysis using small strain assumptions and plane stress, plane strain, and axisymmetric finite elements. Cracks are modeled explicitly in the mesh. As the cracks propagate, automatic remeshing algorithms delete the mesh local to the crack tip, extend the crack, and build a new mesh around the new tip. State variable mapping algorithms transfer stresses and displacements from the old mesh to the new mesh. The von Mises material model is implemented in the context of a non-linear Newton solution scheme. The fracture criterion is the critical crack tip opening displacement, and crack direction is predicted by the maximum tensile stress criterion at the crack tip. The implementation can accommodate multiple curving and interacting cracks. An additional fracture algorithm based on nodal release can be used to simulate fracture along a horizontal plane of symmetry. A core of plane strain elements can be used with the nodal release algorithm to simulate the triaxial state of stress near the crack tip. Verification and validation studies compare analysis results with experimental data and published three-dimensional analysis results. Fracture predictions using nodal release for compact tension, middle-crack tension, and multi-site damage test specimens produced accurate results for residual strength and link-up loads. Curving crack predictions using remeshing/mapping were compared with experimental data for an Arcan mixed-mode specimen. Loading angles from 0 degrees to 90 degrees were analyzed. The maximum tensile stress criterion was able to predict the crack direction and path for all loading angles in which the material failed in tension. Residual strength was also accurately predicted for these cases.

James, Mark Anthony↗

The effects of temporal variability of mixed layer depth on primary productivity around Bermuda

Temporal variations in primary production and surface chlorophyll concentrations, as measured by ship and satellite around Bermuda, were simulated with a numerical model. In the upper 450 m of the water column, population dynamics of a size-fractionated phytoplankton community were forced by daily changes of wind, light, grazing stress, and nutrient availability. The temporal variations of production and chlorophyll were driven by changes in nutrient introduction to the euphotic zone due to both high- and low-frequency changes of the mixed layer depth within 32 deg-34 deg N, 62 deg-64 deg W between 1979 and 1984. Results from the model derived from high-frequency (case 1) changes in the mixed layer depth showed variations in primary production and peak chlorophyll concentrations when compared with results from the model derived from low-frequency (case 2) mixed layer depth changes. Incorporation of size-fractionated plankton state variables in the model led to greater seasonal resolution of measured primary production and vertical chlorophyll profiles. The findings of this study highlight the possible inadequacy of estimating primary production in the sea from data of low-frequency temporal resolution and oversimplified biological simulations.

Bissett, W. Paul↗

Enabling Reanalysis Research Using the Collaborative Reanalysis Technical Environment (CREATE)

Modern atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis are valuable assets for atmospheric research and climate monitoring (Kalnay et al. 1996). Now that most reanalysis records are more than 36 years long, the data have become more useful for climate modeling research (Dole et al. 2008). For investigators who need to use multiple reanalysis, a common challenge is that the data are distributed at various sites and often in different formats. The NASA CREATE system provides access to the data in one location in a standard format (one variable per file and standardized metadata in the CMIP5 style; see Table 1 for a list of the key acronyms used in this paper). The collection includes monthly and 6-hourly data from the seven major atmospheric reanalysis: CFSR (Saha et al. 2010), ERA-Interim (Dee et al. 2011), MERRA (Rienecker et al. 2011), MERRA-2 (Gelaro et al. 2017), JRA-25 (Onogi et al. 2007), JRA-55 (Kobayashi et al. 2014), and 20CRv2c (Compo et al. 2011). An ancillary portion of CREATE includes eight ocean reanalysis: NCEP CFSR, CMCC C-GLORSv5 (Storto et al. 2016), ECMWF ORAS4 (Balmaseda et al.2013), ECMWF ORAP5.0 (Zuo et al. 2015), University of Hamburg GECCO2 (Köhl 2015), GFDL ECDA (Zhang et al. 2007), NOAA GODAS (Saha et al. 2010), and MOVE/MRI.COM-G2i (Toyoda et al. 2016). The ocean state variables were similarly reformatted but were then also regridded onto a common horizontal and vertical grid. This approach facilitated the calculation of an ensemble average and spread that is also published alongside the native gridded data. A third reanalysis product is a global hourly 0.5° land surface air temperature dataset constructed by Wang and Zeng (2013). All three datasets are distributed through the ESGF in a format consistent with the CMIP style described by Cinquini et al. (2014).

Potter, Gerald L.↗

Mission Data System Java Edition Version 7

The Mission Data System framework defines closed-loop control system abstractions from State Analysis including interfaces for state variables, goals, estimators, and controllers that can be adapted to implement a goal-oriented control system. The framework further provides an execution environment that includes a goal scheduler, execution engine, and fault monitor that support the expression of goal network activity plans. Using these frameworks, adapters can build a goal-oriented control system where activity coordination is verified before execution begins (plan time), and continually during execution. Plan failures including violations of safety constraints expressed in the plan can be handled through automatic re-planning. This version optimizes a number of key interfaces and features to minimize dependencies, performance overhead, and improve reliability. Fault diagnosis and real-time projection capabilities are incorporated. This version enhances earlier versions primarily through optimizations and quality improvements that raise the technology readiness level. Goals explicitly constrain system states over explicit time intervals to eliminate ambiguity about intent, as compared to command-oriented control that only implies persistent intent until another command is sent. A goal network scheduling and verification process ensures that all goals in the plan are achievable before starting execution. Goal failures at runtime can be detected (including predicted failures) and handled by adapted response logic. Responses can include plan repairs (try an alternate tactic to achieve the same goal), goal shedding, ignoring the fault, cancelling the plan, or safing the system.

Reinholtz, William K.↗

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

Evaluation of the Impacts of Biomass Burning Aerosols on the NASA GEOS Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Emission sources of trace gases and aerosol particles in the South American (SA)and African (Af) continents have a strong seasonal and space variability associated with the extensive vegetation fires activities. In both continents, during the austral winter, the fires affect mainly tropical forest and savannah-type biomes and are mostly associated with deforestation and agricultural/pasture land management. Smoke aerosol particles, on average, contribute to at least 90% of the total aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible spectrum in the case of the South America regional smoke. Smoke aerosols also act as cloud condensation nuclei affecting cloud microphysics properties and therefore, changing the radiation budget, hydrological cycle and global circulation patterns over disturbed areas (Kaufman, 1995; Rosenfeld, 1999; Andreae,et al., 2004; Koren et al., 2004, Zhang, 2008; Ott et al., 2010; Randles et al., 2013). This study aims to evaluate and quantify the impact of including a comprehensive emission field of biomass burning aerosol on the performance of a seasonal climate forecast system, not only regarding the AOD itself but mainly on the meteorological state variable (e.g., precipitation and temperature). To address the questions put above, we designed two numerical experiments: 1- named"AERO_CTL" which applies the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED) emissions estimated with intra-diurnal variation (hereafter, BBE), and 2- named "AERO_CLM" where the sourcee mission is based on a climatology of the QFED emissions, with only monthly variation(hereafter, BBCLIM). Hindcast simulations were produced using the Goddard Earth ObservingSystem global circulation model, version 5, sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS5-S2S) system with a nominal spatial resolution of 56km (Rienecker et al., 2008). In both experiments, the aerosol feedbacks from cloud developments and radiation interactions were accounted. The two experiments consisted of 4 members each and ran from June to November spanning over the years 2000 to 2015. Model performance was evaluated by calculating statistical metrics on the mean area of SA and Af. Our results demonstrated that the skill model in predicting AOD is significantly improve when BBE source emission is applied over SA, but not over the Afcontinent. Over SA, the correlation between the AERO_CTL model configuration and MERRA-2 is 0.93 (R2= 0.86, RMS=0.02, BIAS=0.01), while the AERO_CLM model presents a value of0.81 (R2= 0.65, RMS=0.04, BIAS=0.06). However, the AERO_CTL experiment better represents the inter-annual variability of the AOS in both regions. The gain of the skill in predicting the AOD by the AERO_CTL experiment is also seen in some meteorological variables. We observed an increase in the model skill in predicting the 2-meter temperature and precipitation of up to 0.3 for the AERO_CTL experiment in comparison to the AERO_CLM. AERO_CLM. According to the analyzed hindcast, we inferred that representing the BBE more realistically implies in a significant gain of skills in the seasonal climate forecasting over SA and Af continents.

Aerosol↗

Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Assimilation to Improve Snow Mass Estimation across Complex Terrain in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan

An ensemble Kalman filter is used to assimilate Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR2) observations of passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures (spectral differences, ΔT b ) into land surface model estimates of snow mass over northwestern high mountain Asia (HMA). Trained support vector machines serve as the observation operator and map the geophysical modeled variables into ΔT b space within the assimilation framework. Evaluation of the assimilation routine is carried out through comparison of assimilated snow mass estimates with an in situ dataset. The assimilation framework helps improve the land surface model estimates through PMW ΔT b assimilation, particularly in terms of decreasing the domain-wide bias. The assimilation framework proved more effective during the (dry) snow accumulation season and decreased the bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) in snow mass estimates at 76% and 58% of the comparative pixels, respectively. During the snow ablation season, the PMW brightness temperature signal contained less information related to snow mass due to the presence of other concurrent geophysical features that effectively serve as noise during the snow mass update. The utilization of PMW ΔT b for accurate snow mass estimation in complex terrain such as HMA is dependent on a multitude of factors for optimal results; however, it does add utility to the land surface model if the relevant pitfalls are taken into consideration prior to the state variable update.

Jawairia Ahmad↗

Development, Characterization, and Validation of Elevated-Temperature Constitutive Models: Deformation and Damage

This report provides a brief review of experimentally observed hereditary and nonhereditary material behavior along with background information on standard as well as advanced internal state variable constitutive modeling at elevated temperature. A description of exploratory, characterization, and validation testing is presented along with a detailed outline of what constitutes “sufficient” data content (i.e., quality and quantity) for developing or enhancing, characterizing, and validating a particular sophisticated nonlinear time- and history-dependent (hereditary) class of constitutive models known as GVIPS (generalized viscoplasticity with potential structure). The tests described are necessary to reveal a material’s behavior in the reversible (or viscoelastic) and irreversible (or viscoplastic) regimes, for the identification of both deformation and damage model parameters. Results presented are primarily for metallic materials. In all cases, both uniaxial and multiaxial tests are described, and the linkage between the specific tests and the parameters within the model that can be characterized from the results of these tests are also discussed. Discussion is also provided relative to the role information management must play relative to material data collection, analysis, maintenance, and dissemination. The need for such an information system is particularly important as both analyst and designer move toward utilizations of sophisticated, nonlinear time- and history dependent (hereditary) constitutive models. Lastly, the concept of state space and its utility in understanding and establishing constitutive models is addressed throughout. The intent behind this document is to help both the modeler and experimentalist understand each other’s specific points of view and provide guidance for both model development and characterization. Emphasis has been placed on providing the mechanician with information regarding how tests are performed and what issues to be aware of when interpreting results. It is hoped that experimentalists will take away a new perspective on the types of information that modelers and analysts are looking for from them.

Constitutive Modeling↗

AC/DC Power Systems with Applications for future Lunar/Mars base and Crew Exploration Vehicle

ABSTRACT The Power Systems branch at JSC faces a number of complex issues as it readies itself for the President's initiative on future space exploration beyond low earth orbit. Some of these preliminary issues - those dealing with electric power generation and distribution on board Mars-bound vehicle and that on Lunar and Martian surface may be summarized as follows: Type of prime mover - Because solar power may not be readily available on parts of the Lunar/Mars surface and also during the long duration flight to Mars, the primary source of power will most likely be nuclear power (Uranium fuel rods) with a secondary source of fuel cell (Hydrogen supply). The electric power generation source - With nuclear power being the main prime mover, the electric power generation source will most likely be an ac generator at a yet to be determined frequency. Thus, a critical issue is whether the generator should generate at constant or variable frequency. This will decide what type of generator to use - whether it is a synchronous machine, an asynchronous induction machine or a switched reluctance machine. The type of power distribution system - the distribution frequency, number of wires (3- wire, 4-wire or higher), and ac/dc hybridization. Building redundancy and fault tolerance in the generation and distribution sub-systems so that the system is safe; provides 100% availability to critical loads; continues to operate even with faulted sub-systems; and requires minimal maintenance. This report descril_es results of a summer faculty fellowship spent in the Power Systems Branch with the specific aim of investigating some of the lessons learned in electric power generation and usage from the terrestrial power systems industry, the aerospace industry as well as NASA's on-going missions so as to recommend novel surface and vehicle-based power systems architectures in support of future space exploration initiatives. A hybrid ac/dc architecture with source side and load side redundancies and including emergency generators on both ac and dc sides is proposed. The generation frequency is 400 Hz mostly because of the technology maturity at this frequency in the aerospace industry. Power will be distributed to several ac load distribution buses through solid state variable speed, constant frequency converters on the ac side. A segmented dc ring bus supplied from ac/dc converters and with the capability of connecting/disconnecting the segments will supply power to multiple de load distribution buses. The system will have the capability of reverse flow from dc to ac side in the case of an extreme emergency on the main ac generation side.

Chowdhury, Badrul H.↗

LIFT CONTROL DURING ATMOSPHERE ENTRY FROM SUPERCIRCULAR VELOCITY

This paper presents an analysis of a guidance method which uses a reference trajectory. The four state variables needed to prescribe the trajectory are used as follows : Velocity is made the independent variable, and the errors in the rate-of-climb, acceleration, and range variables away from the reference are used to govern the lift. A linearized form of the motion equations is used to show that this represents a third-order control system. First- and second- order control terms (rate of climb and acceleration inputs) are shown to determine the entry corridor depth by stabilizing the trajectory so that the vehicle does not skip back out of the atmosphere or does not exceed a specified acceleration limit. The destabilizing effect that range input (the third-order control term) can have is illustrated and the results indicate that a low value of range input gain must be used at the high supercircular velocities while larger values of range input gain can be used at lower velocities. The usable corridor depth and range capability with this guidance system are demonstrated for a lifting capsule (L/D = 0.5). The practical applications of this system are illustrated with a fixed trim configuration wherein roll angle is used to command the desired lift. The results show that the guidance system requires only one reference trajectory for abort entry conditions as well as for entry conditions near the design values.

Atmosphere↗