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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Searching for quasar candidates with periodic variations from the Zwicky Transient Facility: results and implications

ABSTRACT We conduct a systematic search for quasars with periodic variations from the archival photometric data of the Zwicky Transient Facility by cross-matching with the quasar catalogues of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Véron-Cetty and Véron. We first select out 184 primitive periodic candidates using the generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram and autocorrelation function and then estimate their statistical significance of periodicity based on two red-noise models, i.e. damped random walk (DRW) and single power-law (SPL) models. As such, we finally identify 106 (DRW) and 86 (SPL) candidates with the most significant periodic variations out of 143 700 quasars. We further compare DRW and SPL models using Bayes factors, which indicate a relative preference of the SPL model for our primitive sample. We thus adopt the candidates identified with SPL as the final sample and summarize its basic properties. We extend the light curves of the selected candidates by supplying other archival survey data to verify their periodicity. However, only three candidates (with 6–8 cycles of periods) meet the selection criteria. This result clearly implies that, instead of being strictly periodic, the variability must be quasi-periodic or caused by stochastic red-noise. This exerts a challenge to the existing search approaches and calls for developing new effective methods.

Chen, Yong-Jie (ORCID:0000000342807673)↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Introduction to the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS)

Deployment and capability of distributed energy resources (DER) in power systems is growing rapidly. These resources present an opportunity for low-cost provision of energy and grid services. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently provided rulings to enable market participation of these distribution-connected resources, but the prevailing strategies for their management may not scale well to meet future needs. This paper introduces the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS) which was designed to address this need. In it we describe the architectural features of the approach, and a reference controls implementation employing a hierarchical coordination that includes stochastic optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. Sample results from simulation show firm transmission-level service provision measured at the distribution substation.

grid architecture↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimality of Gradient-MUSIC for Spectral Estimation

We introduce the Gradient-MUSIC algorithm for estimating the unknown frequencies and amplitudes of a nonharmonic signal from noisy time samples. While the classical MUSIC algorithm performs a computationally expensive search over a fine grid, Gradient-MUSIC is significantly more efficient and eliminates the need for discretization over a fine grid by using optimization techniques. It coarsely scans the 1D landscape to find initialization simultaneously for all frequencies followed by parallelizable local refinement via gradient descent. We also analyze its performance when the noise level is sufficiently small and the signal frequencies are separated by at least 8π/m, where π/m is the standard resolution of this problem. Even though the 1D landscape is nonconvex, we prove a global convergence result for Gradient-MUSIC: coarse scanning provably finds suitable initialization and gradient descent converges at a linear rate. In addition to convergence results, we also upper bound the error between the true signal frequencies and amplitudes with those found by Gradient-MUSIC. For example, if the noise has $\ell^\infty$ norm at most ϵ, then the frequencies and amplitudes are recovered up to error at most Cϵ/m and Cϵ respectively, which are minimax optimal in m and ϵ. Our theory can also handle stochastic noise with performance guarantees under nonstationary independent Gaussian noise. Our main approach is a comprehensive geometric analysis of the landscape, a perspective that has not been explored before.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Introduction to the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS): Preprint

Deployment and capability of distributed energy resources (DER) in power systems is growing rapidly. These resources present an opportunity for low-cost provision of energy and grid services. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently provided rulings to enable market participation of these distribution-connected resources, but the prevailing strategies for their management may not scale well to meet future needs. This paper introduces the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FASTDERMS) which was designed to address this need. In it we describe the architectural features of the approach, and a reference controls implementation employing a hierarchical coordination that includes stochastic optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. Sample results from simulation show firm transmission-level service provision measured at the distribution substation.

DERMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable Energy System Expansion Under Uncertainty Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Optimization

The intermittent nature of power from renewable energy sources poses new challenges for electrical grids. This is due to the variable and uncertain nature of the power output from these resources. These features of renewable generation are becoming more relevant to energy system planning as grids reach higher penetration levels of renewable energy. In this presentation we present approaches for energy system planning based on scalable computational approaches which enable the explicit consideration of operational uncertainties in the planning process. Using multi-stage stochastic programming and the progressive hedging algorithm, we compute energy system expansion decisions on modified versions of the RTS-GMLC test system augmented with large amounts of renewable generation.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian filtering for model predictive control of stochastic gene expression in single cells

This study describes a method for controlling the production of protein in individual cells using stochastic models of gene expression. By combining modern microscopy platforms with optogenetic gene expression, experimentalists are able to accurately apply light to individual cells, which can induce protein production. Here we use a finite state projection based stochastic model of gene expression, along with Bayesian state estimation to control protein copy numbers within individual cells. We compare this method to previous methods that use population based approaches. We also demonstrate the ability of this control strategy to ameliorate discrepancies between the predictions of a deterministic model and stochastic switching system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Gravity and Laser Interferometry: Towards Observable Predictions

Understanding quantum gravity remains one of the deepest challenges in modern physics, as direct experimental access to Planck-scale effects is beyond current technological reach. However, recent theoretical advances indicate that quantum fluctuations of spacetime may produce measurable effects in precision experiments, particularly near causal horizons. This opens new avenues for testing quantum gravity phenomena through high-precision measurement techniques. This dissertation develops multiple theoretical models to characterize these effects and examines their potential observational signatures in future gravitational wave interferometers. We begin by investigating the role of quantum fluctuations in near-horizon geometries through the lens of the AdS/CFT correspondence, which provides a powerful framework for understanding the interplay between quantum field theory and general relativity via holographic principles. By modeling stochastic energy-momentum sources in Rindler-AdS spacetime, we demonstrate that vacuum fluctuations transform the Einstein equations into a Langevin-type stochastic differential equation, leading to potentially observable fluctuations in photon traversal times. Extending this approach to Minkowski spacetime, we establish a correspondence between gravitational shockwaves and fluid dynamics, showing that near-horizon perturbations satisfy an equation analogous to that governing incompressible fluids, thereby reinforcing the membrane paradigm and hydrodynamic analogies in the context of the fluid/gravity duality. Furthermore, we construct the covariant phase space of a spherically symmetric causal diamond in Minkowski spacetime, identifying two fundamental charges that govern its evolution. These results provide a foundation for quantizing causal horizons and understanding their microscopic degrees of freedom. Building upon these theoretical developments, we further examine a related stochastic phenomenon: the gravitational wave memory background arising from the cumulative memory steps produced by supermassive black hole mergers. After reviewing the standard stochastic gravitational wave background, gravitational memory effects, and BMS symmetries, we model the stochastic memory background using a Brownian motion framework. We show that while the cumulative memory background initially appears above the sensitivity curve of space-based interferometers like LISA, the realistic subtraction of individually resolvable merger events substantially suppresses the residual signal, making its detection more challenging. This highlights the critical importance of source subtraction when evaluating the detectability of gravitational memory effects. By bridging fundamental theory with experimental prospects, this dissertation contributes to the ongoing effort to uncover the quantum nature of spacetime through precision measurement techniques. Whether through detecting quantum spacetime fluctuations, gravitational memory backgrounds, or probing the symmetries of causal horizons, the pursuit of observable quantum gravity phenomena continues to expand the frontiers of both theory and experiment.

Zhang, Yiwen [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000323559416)↗
DOE OSTI2020

De Sitter diagrammar and the resummation of time

Light scalars in inflationary spacetimes suffer from logarithmic infrared divergences at every order in perturbation theory. This corresponds to the scalar field values in different Hubble patches undergoing a random walk of quantum fluctuations, leading to a simple toy “landscape” on superhorizon scales, in which we can explore questions relevant to eternal inflation. However, for a sufficiently long period of inflation, the infrared divergences appear to spoil computability. Some form of renormalization group approach is thus motivated to resum the log divergences of conformal time. Such a resummation may provide insight into De Sitter holography. We present here a novel diagrammatic analysis of these infrared divergences and their resummation. Basic graph theory observations and momen- tum power counting for the in-in propagators allow a simple and insightful determination of the leading-log contributions. One thus sees diagrammatically how the superhorizon sector consists of a semiclassical theory with quantum noise evolved by a first-order, interacting classical equation of motion. This rigorously leads to the “Stochastic Inflation” ansatz developed by Starobinsky to cure the scalar infrared pathology nonperturbatively. Our approach is a controlled approximation of the underlying quantum field theory and is systematically improvable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Parameter Design on Dual Stochastic Response Models With Constrained Bayesian Optimization

In engineering system design, minimizing the variations of the quality measurements while guaranteeing their overall quality up to certain levels, namely the robust parameter design (RPD), is crucial. Recent works have dealt with the design of a system whose response-control variables relationship is a deterministic function with a complex shape and function evaluation is expensive. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method for the RPD of stochastic functions. Dual stochastic response models are carefully designed for stochastic functions. The heterogeneous variance of the sample mean is addressed by the predictive mean of the log variance surrogate model in a two-step approach. We establish an acquisition function that favors exploration across the feasible and optimality-improvable regions to effectively and efficiently solve the stochastic constrained optimization problem. Further, the performance of our proposed method is demonstrated by the extensive numerical and case studies. Note to Practitioners-Many manufacturing processes involve undesirable variations, which create variations in the final products. For example, many emerging manufacturing processes, such as nanomanufacturing, involve complex physical and chemical dynamics and transformation, creating variations in the manufacturing output. In such processes, it is crucial to design the manufacturing processes or products so that they have minimum variations in their quality. Meanwhile, it is also important to maintain the overall quality of the designed processes or products. Furthermore, acquiring data from many advanced manufacturing processes is often very costly, especially in the designing stage. In this work, we propose a data-driven method that automatically finds the best setting of manufacturing processes or products with the minimum variations of quality and a given constraint on the average quality satisfied. Our proposed method is used before conducting every experiment; It analyzes the historical data from previous experiments and provides a setting to be used in the next experiment. Our proposed method efficiently utilizes the historical data, and thus finds the best robust setting by conducting only a small number of experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving the Accuracy of Nearest-Neighbor Classification Using Principled Construction and Stochastic Sampling of Training-Set Centroids

A conceptually simple way to classify images is to directly compare test-set data and training-set data. The accuracy of this approach is limited by the method of comparison used, and by the extent to which the training-set data cover configuration space. Here we show that this coverage can be substantially increased using coarse-graining (replacing groups of images by their centroids) and stochastic sampling (using distinct sets of centroids in combination). We use the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST data sets to show that a principled coarse-graining algorithm can convert training images into fewer image centroids without loss of accuracy of classification of test-set images by nearest-neighbor classification. Distinct batches of centroids can be used in combination as a means of stochastically sampling configuration space, and can classify test-set data more accurately than can the unaltered training set. On the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST data sets this approach converts nearest-neighbor classification from a mid-ranking- to an upper-ranking member of the set of classical machine-learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Core Design of the Holos-Quad Microreactor

The Holos-Quad micro-reactor concept, developed by HolosGen LLC, is equipped with a 22 MWt (Mega-Watt thermal) core and an integral power conversion system converting the core thermal energy into approximately 10 MWe (Mega-Watt electric). This design can be configured to support a wide range of applications. It is a very innovative high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concept using TRI-structural ISOtropic particle fuel (TRISO) distributed in graphite hexagonal blocks, cooled with helium in a direct Brayton cycle independently executed by four Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) fitted into a hardened 40-foot container whose dimensions are in compliance with ISO shipping containers requirements. In FY2019 HolosGen LLC was awarded by the Department of Energy Advanced Research Project Agency-Energy (DOE ARPA-E) under the MEITNER funding program. As part of the MEITNER award, the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) contributed expertise through two specialized teams: The “Design Team” and the “Resource Team”. The Design Team was dedicated to validate feasibility of the Holos-Quad core and to optimize its core design through neutronics analyses. The Resource Team was dedicated to feasibility verification via high-fidelity codes of Holos-Quad thermal-hydraulic, heat transfer, shielding, and structural aspects. This report summarizes the activities conducted by ANL Design Team. A rigorous design approach based on multi-criteria optimization and code-to-code comparison involving stochastic and high-fidelity deterministic solutions was developed and employed at several evolutionary stages of the Holos-Quad design. Several generations of the Holos-Quad core were designed within this project before converging to the current full-scale Gen 2+ design that is detailed in this report. Figure EA-1 illustrates a cross-sectional view of Gen 2+ Holos-Quad core configuration, and Figure EA-2 provides a simplified perspective view of 1-of-4 SPMs. The Holos-Quad uses four thermal-hydraulically independent SPMs locked into stationary positions during power operation, surrounded by BeO reflector and structural component fully comprised within the dimensional constraints represented by traditional ISO containers. One of the benefits of this approach is to enable transportation of each SPM promptly after irradiation in shielded containers. The core is designed to operate for approximately 8 full-power years while the reactivity controls and power conversion system enable load-following operations. The reactivity controls are represented by independent, diversified, and redundant reactivity control systems based on control drums and redundant sets of shutdown rods. The high-fidelity simulation tools were used to assess detailed power and flux distributions of the three-dimensional full-core or quarter-core of the Gen 2+ configuration. Single-physics and multi-physics simulations of the neutronics code PROTEUS and the thermal-hydraulic code System Analysis Module (SAM) were performed to analyze the Holos design configurations with detailed high-fidelity solutions. The design work performed confirmed feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept, provided realistic design description for detailed design of the operational system, and identified several core design improvements to be further considered for future reactor development activities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic quantum Krylov protocol with double-factorized Hamiltonians

Here we propose a class of randomized quantum Krylov diagonalization (rQKD) algorithms capable of solving the eigenstate estimation problem with modest quantum resource requirements. Compared to previous real-time evolution quantum Krylov subspace methods, our approach expresses the time evolution operator e –i$\widehat{H}$$\tau$ as a linear combination of unitaries and subsequently uses a stochastic sampling procedure to reduce circuit depth requirements. While our methodology applies to any Hamiltonian with fast-forwardable subcomponents, we focus on its application to the explicitly double-factorized electronic-structure Hamiltonian. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed rQKD algorithm on near-term quantum devices, we provide numerical benchmarks for a variety of molecular systems with circuit-based state-vector simulators including the effects of sampling noise, achieving ground-state energy errors of less than 1 kcal mol -1 with circuit depths orders of magnitude shallower than those required for low-rank deterministic Trotter-Suzuki decompositions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Period Active Distribution Network Planning Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming and Nested Decomposition by SDDIP

This paper presents a multi-period active distribution network planning (ADNP) with distributed generation (DG). The objective of the proposed ADNP is to minimize the total planning cost, subject to both investment and operation constraints. The paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic optimization model to address DG uncertainties over several periods, in which the decisions are made sequentially by only using the present-stage information. A nested decomposition method is proposed which applies the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming (SDDIP) method to address computational intractabilities of the proposed ADNP approach. The presented numerical results and discussions on a 33-bus distribution system and a large-scale 906-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed ADNP method and its solution method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Riverine bacterioplankton and phytoplankton assembly along an environmental gradient induced by urbanization

In the Anthropocene, human activities are intensifying stresses on biological communities across ecosystems. Knowledge on how environmental changes influence microbial community dynamics is crucial but currently limited. Here we unraveled ecological processes generating distribution patterns of bacterioplankton and phytoplankton communities in a river draining an urbanizing watershed in southern China. In this ecosystem, longitudinal environmental heterogeneity and directional flow potentially have counteracting effects on planktonic community assembly. Using simultaneously multiple approaches, we showed that the observed compositional patterns result from an interplay of stochastic and deterministic processes, indicating that dispersal via fluvial connectivity could not override local selective pressures. Successional shifts in the relative importance of the above processes were associated with trends in climatic factors. High diversity was observed at the intermediate levels of ecological processes alongside intense inter-species interactions maintained by a few keystone taxa. Altogether, interactions between climatic conditions, landscape and hydrology control plankton community dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion using physics-informed meltpool signatures and machine learning

In this work we accomplished the monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing process. This objective was realized by extracting physics-informed meltpool signatures from an in-situ dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer, and subsequently, analyzing these signatures via computationally tractable machine learning approaches. Porosity in LPBF occurs despite extensive optimization of processing conditions due to stochastic causes. Hence, it is essential to continually monitor the process with in-situ sensors for detecting and mitigating incipient pore formation. In this work a tall cuboid-shaped part (10 mm × 10 mm × 137 mm, material ATI 718Plus) was built with controlled porosity by varying laser power and scanning speed. This test caused various types of porosity, such as lack-of-fusion and keyhole formation, with varying degrees of severity in the part. The meltpool was continuously monitored using a dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer installed in the machine. Physically intuitive process signatures, such as meltpool length, temperature distribution, and ejecta (spatter) characteristics, were extracted from the meltpool images. Subsequently, relatively simple machine learning models, e.g., K-Nearest Neighbors, were trained to predict both the severity and type of porosity as a function of these physics-informed meltpool signatures. These models resulted in a prediction accuracy exceeding 95% (statistical F1-score). The same analysis was carried out with a complex, black-box deep learning convolutional neural network which directly used the meltpool images instead of physics-informed features. The convolutional neural network produced a comparable F1-score in the range of 89–97%. Finally, these results demonstrate that using pragmatic, physics-informed meltpool signatures within a simple machine learning model is as effective for flaw prediction in LPBF as using a complex and computationally demanding black-box deep learning model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Euler–Lagrange stochastic modeling of droplet breakup and impact in supersonic flight

Blunt bodied aircraft traveling supersonically in weather environments may be damaged by impacts with water droplets and other airborne particles, such as snow and ice. Prior to an impact, these particles will encounter a bow shock that causes a discontinuity in their relative velocity with the gas phase, which can lead droplets to breakup into smaller droplets. These smaller droplets are more easily diverted from colliding with the blunt body due to their significantly reduced inertia relative to the initial rain droplets. One-way coupled Euler–Lagrange simulations are used to study the dynamics of droplets approaching a blunt body in steady two dimensional and axi-symmetric flow fields using a stochastic version of the Taylor analogy breakup model for the breakup dynamics. Ultimately, the dominant mechanism determining engineering quantities of interest was observed to be a competition between breakup time and the time available for a droplet to reach the body after encountering the bow shock. At Mach numbers 2, 3, and 6, the competition between these mechanisms was the dominant factor determining the momentum transfer to the blunt body via droplet collisions, which can be well characterized by a scaling relation.

Briney, Sam (ORCID:0000000179061081)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic evolution of stochastic dynamical systems: A meso-scale perspective

Stochastic dynamical systems arise naturally across nearly all areas of science and engineering. Typically, a dynamical system model is based on some prior knowledge about the underlying dynamics of interest in which probabilistic features are used to quantify and propagate uncertainties associated with the initial conditions, external excitations, etc. From a probabilistic modeling standing point, two broad classes of methods exist, i.e. macro-scale methods and micro-scale methods. Classically, macro-scale methods such as statistical moments-based strategies are usually too coarse to capture the multi-mode shape or tails of a non-Gaussian distribution. Micro-scale methods such as random samples-based approaches, on the other hand, become computationally very challenging in dealing with high-dimensional stochastic systems. In view of these potential limitations, a meso-scale scheme is proposed here that utilizes a meso-scale statistical structure to describe the dynamical evolution from a probabilistic perspective. The significance of this statistical structure is twofold. First, it can be tailored to any arbitrary random space. Second, it not only maintains the probability evolution around sample trajectories but also requires fewer meso-scale components than the micro-scale samples. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed meso-scale scheme, a set of examples of increasing complexity are provided. Connections to the benchmark stochastic models as conservative and Markov models along with practical implementation guidelines are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗