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At least 289 records · Page 16

Comparative Evaluation of the Ability of the MYNN‐EDMF PBL Scheme in WRF Model to Reproduce Near Surface Wind Speed Over Different Topographical Types

Abstract This study systematically evaluates the performance of the Mellor‐Yamada‐Nakanishi‐Niino‐Eddy‐Diffusion‐Mass‐Flux planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating near‐surface wind speeds across various topographies in New York State (NYS). Simulated wind speeds are compared with in‐situ measurements from 22 surface sites, grouped into six topographic categories: continental plain (CT), lakeside (LS), river valley (RV), Long Island (LI), Block Island (BI), and offshore ocean (OO). A quantitative evaluation based on Relative Euclidean Distance shows that wind speeds at the OO site are the most accurately reproduced, followed by those at LI sites, while the model performs less accurately for the remaining topographic groups. Wind speeds over CT sites tend to be overestimated by approximately 1 m/s, although their diurnal variability (DV) is well captured. In contrast, the model underestimates wind DV at LS, RV, LI, and BI sites, with the largest biases occurring at LI and BI, resulting in underestimated daytime wind speed and/or overestimated nighttime wind speed. The OO winds exhibit minimal diurnal variation, accurately captured by our WRF model. The surface wind diurnal variation is closely linked to PBL development. Among the indicators of PBL development, surface potential temperature biases most strongly correlate with wind speed biases. Our WRF model faces challenges in capturing the distinctions between winds influenced by local circulations and those over continental plains, and the significantly stronger winds at OO compared to BI. Potential causes for these biases are discussed, offering pathways for improving surface wind simulations in future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Asymmetric 511 keV Positron Annihilation Line Emission from the Inner Galactic Disk

A recently reported asymmetry in the 511 keV gamma-ray line emission from the inner galactic disk is unexpected and mimics an equally unexpected one in the distribution of LMXBs seen at hard X-ray energies. A possible conclusion is that LMXBs are an important source of the positrons whose annihilation gives rise to the line. We will discuss these results, their statistical significance and that of any link between the two. The implication of any association between LMXBs and positrons for the strong annihilation radiation from the galactic bulge will be reviewed.

Skinner, Gerry↗

Statistical Analysis of Factors Riving Surface Ozone Variability over Continental South Africa

Statistical relationships between surface ozone (O3) concentration, precursor species and meteorological conditions in continental South Africa were examined from data obtained from measurement stations in north-eastern South Africa. Three multivariate statistical methods were applied in the investigation, i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component analysis (PCA) and –regression (PCR), and generalised additive model (GAM) analysis. The daily maximum 8-h moving average O3 concentrations were considered in these statistical models (dependent variable). MLR models indicated that meteorology and precursor species concentrations are able to explain ~50% of the variability in daily maximum O3 levels. MLR analysis revealed that atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO), temperature and relative humidity were the strongest factors affecting the daily O3 variability. In summer, daily O3 variances were mostly associated with relative humidity, while winter O3 levels were mostly linked to temperature and CO. PCA indicated that CO, temperature and relative humidity were not strongly collinear. GAM also identified CO, temperature and relative humidity as the strongest factors affecting the daily variation of O3. Partial residual plots found that temperature, radiation and nitrogen oxides most likely have a non-linear relationship with O3,while the relationship with relative humidity and CO is probably linear. An inter-comparison between O3 levels modelled with the three statistical models compared to measured O3 concentrations showed that the GAM model offered a slight improvement over the MLR model. These findings emphasise the critical role of regional-scale O3 precursors coupled with meteorological conditions in daily variances of O3 levels in continental South Africa.

multiple linear regression (MLR)↗

Structure of pre-miR-31 reveals an active role in Dicer–TRBP complex processing

As an essential posttranscriptional regulator of gene expression, microRNA (miRNA) levels must be strictly maintained. The biogenesis of many miRNAs is mediated by trans-acting protein partners through a variety of mechanisms, including remodeling of the RNA structure. miR-31 functions as an oncogene in numerous cancers, and interestingly, its biogenesis is not known to be regulated by protein-binding partners. Therefore, the intrinsic structural properties of the precursor element of miR-31 (pre-miR-31) can provide a mechanism by which its biogenesis is regulated. We determined the solution structure of pre-miR-31 to investigate the role of distinct structural elements in regulating processing by the Dicer–TRBP complex. We found that the presence or absence of mismatches within the helical stem does not strongly influence Dicer–TRBP processing of the pre-miRNAs. However, both the apical loop size and structure at the Dicing site are key elements for discrimination by the Dicer–TRBP complex. Interestingly, our NMR-derived structure reveals the presence of a triplet of base pairs that link the Dicer cleavage site and the apical loop. Mutational analysis in this region suggests that the stability of the junction region strongly influences processing by the Dicer–TRBP complex. Our results enrich our understanding of the active role that RNA structure plays in regulating miRNA biogenesis, which has direct implications for the control of gene expression.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of substrates and quantum effects on exciton line shapes of 2D semiconductors at room temperature

Exciton resonances in monolayer transition-metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) provide exceptionally strong light–matter interaction at room temperature. Their spectral line shape is critical in the design of a myriad of optoelectronic devices, ranging from solar cells to quantum information processing. However, disorder resulting from static inhomogeneities and dynamical fluctuations can significantly impact the line shape. Many recent works experimentally evaluate the optical properties of TMD monolayers placed on a substrate and the line shape is typically linked directly to the material’s quality. Here, we highlight that the interference of the substrate and TMD reflections can strongly influence the line shape. We further show how basic, room-temperature reflection measurements allow investigation of the quantum mechanical exciton dynamics by systematically controlling the substrate reflection with index-matching oils. By removing the substrate contribution with properly chosen oil, we can extract the excitonic decay rates including the quantum mechanical dephasing rate. The results provide valuable guidance for the engineering of exciton line shapes in layered nanophotonic systems.

2D semiconductor↗

Zwitterionic Photocurable Resin for High‐Resolution 3D Printing of Ultralow‐Fouling Microstructures

High‐resolution 3D printing technologies are enabling a new generation of microstructured materials for applications where biocompatibility is critical. However, most conventional 3D‐printable resins yield materials that exhibit trade‐offs between antifouling properties and mechanical robustness, limiting their applicability in living systems. In nature, zwitterionic surface groups form tightly bound hydration layers that act as effective barriers against protein and cell attachment. Inspired by this strategy, a zwitterionic acrylamide‐based photoresist—carboxybetaine di‐methacrylamide (CBDA)—is developed for projection‐based vat photopolymerization, enabling the fabrication of complex microarchitectures with exceptional antifouling properties. The bifunctional monomer allows the formation of dense, cross‐linked networks that resist swelling while maintaining a high density of zwitterionic groups. Printed structures exhibit strong resistance to protein and cell adhesion, as confirmed by porcine blood assays, alongside robust mechanical performance. As a demonstration, a tubular structure featuring a negative Poisson's ratio lattice is printed to showcase structural fidelity and versatility. This resin formulation offers a broadly applicable strategy for fabricating microscale devices and surfaces where antifouling performance and structural integrity are both essential—spanning biomedical interfaces, soft robotics, and beyond.

3D printing↗

Stellar multiplicity and stellar rotation: insights from APOGEE

ABSTRACT We measure rotational broadening in spectra taken by the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) survey to characterize the relationship between stellar multiplicity and rotation. We create a sample of 2786 giants and 24 496 dwarfs with stellar parameters and multiple radial velocities from the APOGEE pipeline, projected rotation speeds vsin i determined from our own pipeline, and distances, masses, and ages measured by Sanders & Das. We use the statistical distribution of the maximum shift in the radial velocities, ΔRVmax, as a proxy for the close binary fraction to explore the interplay between stellar evolution, rotation, and multiplicity. Assuming that the minimum orbital period allowed is the critical period for Roche Lobe overflow and rotational synchronization, we calculate theoretical upper limits on expected vsin i and ΔRVmax values. These expectations agree with the positive correlation between the maximum ΔRVmax and vsin i values observed in our sample as a function of log(g). We find that the fast rotators in our sample have a high occurrence of short-period [log(P/d) ≲ 4] companions. We also find that old, rapidly rotating main-sequence stars have larger completeness-corrected close binary fractions than their younger peers. Furthermore, rapidly rotating stars with large ΔRVmax consistently show differences of 1–10 Gyr between the predicted gyrochronological and measured isochronal ages. These results point towards a link between rapid rotation and close binarity through tidal interactions. We conclude that stellar rotation is strongly correlated with stellar multiplicity in the field, and caution should be taken in the application of gyrochronology relations to cool stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electromagnetic Tomography of Radial Flow in the Quark-Gluon Plasma

We present a novel multimessenger approach to extract the effective radial flow of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) by jointly analyzing thermal photon and dilepton spectra in heavy-ion collisions. A key feature of this method is that it circumvents the need for a directly unmeasurable reference—the photon temperature in the absence of flow—by establishing, within a calibrated model framework, a stable, approximately linear correlation with the dilepton-inferred temperature. This construction defines an experimentally constructible quantity, 𝑣$^{eff}_{𝑟}$, which reflects early-time collectivity and exhibits a strong correlation with the spacetime-averaged radial velocity of the QGP. Together with previous results linking dilepton slopes to the initial QGP temperature, our work establishes a consistent framework for electromagnetic tomography of the QGP. Here, our framework quantifies the experimental precision target, thereby providing a concrete road map for future measurements at RHIC and the LHC and opening a new avenue to probe the early-time dynamics of hot QCD matter.

Collective flow↗

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Variability in Ocean Color Associated with Phytoplankton and Terrigenous Matter: Time Series Measurements and Algorithm Development at the FRONT Site on the New England Continental Shelf

Fronts in the coastal ocean describe areas of strong horizontal gradients in both physical and biological properties associated with tidal mixing and freshwater estuarine output (e.g. Simpson, 1981 and O Donnell, 1993). Related gradients in optically important constituents mean that fronts can be observed from space as changes in ocean color as well as sea surface temperature (e.g., Dupouy et al., 1986). This research program is designed to determine which processes and optically important constituents must be considered to explain ocean color variations associated with coastal fronts on the New England continental shelf, in particular the National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP) Front Resolving Observational Network with Telemetry (FRONT) site. This site is located at the mouth of Long Island sound and was selected after the analysis of 12 years of AVHRR data showed the region to be an area of strong frontal activity (Ullman and Cornillon, 1999). FRONT consists of a network of modem nodes that link bottom mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) and profiling arrays. At the center of the network is the Autonomous Vertically Profiling Plankton Observatory (AVPPO) (Thwaites et al. 1998). The AVPPO consists of buoyant sampling vehicle and a trawl-resistant bottom-mounted enclosure, which holds a winch, the vehicle (when not sampling), batteries, and controller. Three sampling systems are present on the vehicle, a video plankton recorder, a CTD with accessory sensors, and a suite of bio-optical sensors including Satlantic OCI-200 and OCR-200 spectral radiometers and a WetLabs ac-9 dual path absorption and attenuation meter. At preprogrammed times the vehicle is released, floats to the surface, and is then winched back into the enclosure with power and data connection maintained through the winch cable. Communication to shore is possible through a bottom cable and nearby surface telemetry buoy, equipped with a mobile modem, giving the capability for near-real time data transmission and interactive sampling control.

Morrison, John R.↗

CFRP Dimensional Stability Investigations for Use on the LISA Mission Telescope

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a mission designed to detect low frequency gravitational-waves. In order for LISA to succeed in its goal of direct measurement of gravitational waves, many subsystems must work together to measure the distance between proof masses on adjacent spacecraft. One such subsystem, the telescope, plays a critical role as it is the laser transmission and reception link between spacecraft. Not only must the material that makes up the telescope support structure be strong, stiff and light, but it must have a dimensional stability of better than 1 pm Hz(exp -1/2) at 3 mHz and the distance between the primary and the secondary mirrors must change by less than 2.5 micron over the mission lifetime. CFRP is the current baseline materiaL however, it has not been tested to the pico-meter level as required by the LISA mission. In this paper we present dimensional stability results, outgassing effects occurring in the cavity and discuss its feasibility for use as the telescope spacer for the LISA spacecraft.

Sanjuan, J.↗

Interannual Variability in the Thermal Habitat of Alexandrium catenella in the Bay of Fundy and the Implications of Climate Change

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

Andre F. Bucci↗

Superparamagnetic nanoparticles and nanocomposites

The present invention is directed to the syntheses of superparamagnetic nanoparticles and the incorporation of the nanoparticles as the magnetic component to form a strongly magnetic nanocomposite. The superparamagnetic nanoparticles possess no hysteresis and are too small to support eddy currents. The invention uses a ligand exchange procedure to produce aminated nanoparticles that are then cross-linked using epoxy chemistry. The result is a magnetic nanoparticle component that is covalently linked and well separated. By using this ‘matrix-free’ approach, it is possible to substantially increase the magnetic nanoparticle fraction, while still maintaining good separation, leading to a superparamagnetic nanocomposite with strong magnetic properties and low magnetic losses.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Development of Position-Sensitive Magnetic Calorimeters for X-Ray Astronomy

Metallic magnetic calorimeters (MMC) are one of the most promising devices to provide very high energy resolution needed for future astronomical x-ray spectroscopy. MMC detectors can be built to large detector arrays having thousands of pixels. Position-sensitive magnetic (PoSM) microcalorimeters consist of multiple absorbers thermally coupled to one magnetic micro calorimeter. Each absorber element has a different thermal coupling to the MMC, resulting in a distribution of different pulse shapes and enabling position discrimination between the absorber elements. PoSMs therefore achieve the large focal plane area with fewer number of readout channels without compromising spatial sampling. Excellent performance of PoSMs was achieved by optimizing the designs of key parameters such as the thermal conductance among the absorbers, magnetic sensor, and heat sink, as well as the absorber heat capacities. Micro fab ri - cation techniques were developed to construct four-absorber PoSMs, in which each absorber consists of a two-layer composite of bismuth and gold. The energy resolution (FWHM full width at half maximum) was measured to be better than 5 eV at 6 keV x-rays for all four absorbers. Position determination was demonstrated with pulse-shape discrimination, as well as with pulse rise time. X-ray microcalorimeters are usually designed to thermalize as quickly as possible to avoid degradation in energy resolution from position dependence to the pulse shapes. Each pixel consists of an absorber and a temperature sensor, both decoupled from the cold bath through a weak thermal link. Each pixel requires a separate readout channel; for instance, with a SQUID (superconducting quantum interference device). For future astronomy missions where thousands to millions of resolution elements are required, having an individual SQUID readout channel for each pixel becomes difficult. One route to attaining these goals is a position-sensitive detector in which a large continuous or pixilated array of x-ray absorbers shares fewer numbers of temperature sensors. A means of discriminating the signals from different absorber positions, however, needs to be built into the device for each sensor. The design concept for the device is such that the shape of the temperature pulse with time depends on the location of the absorber. This inherent position sensitivity of the signal is then analyzed to determine the location of the event precisely, effectively yielding one device with many sub-pixels. With such devices, the total number of electronic channels required to read out a given number of pixels is significantly reduced. PoSMs were developed that consist of four discrete absorbers connected to a single magnetic sensor. The design concept can be extended to more than four absorbers per sensor. The thermal conductance between the sensor and each absorber is different by design and consequently, the pulse shapes are different depending upon which absorber the xrays are received, allowing position discrimination. A magnetic sensor was used in which a paramagnetic Au:Er temperature-sensitive material is located in a weak magnetic field. Deposition of energy from an x-ray photon causes an increase in temperature, which leads to a change of magnetization of the paramagnetic sensor, which is subsequently read out using a low noise dc-SQUID. The PoSM microcalorimeters are fully microfabricated: the Au:Er sensor is located above the meander, with a thin insulation gap in between. For this position-sensitive device, four electroplated absorbers are thermally linked to the sensor via heat links of different thermal conductance. One pixel is identical to that of a single-pixel design, consisting of an overhanging absorber fabricated directly on top of the sensor. It is therefore very strongly thermally coupled to it. The three other absorbers are supported directly on a silicon-nitride membrane. These absorbers are thermally coupled to the sensor via Ti (5 nm)/Au250 nm) metal links. The strength of the links is parameterized by the number of gold squares making up the link. For detector performance, experimentally different pulse-shapes were demonstrated with 6 keV x-rays, which clearly show different rise times for different absorber positions. For energy resolution measurement, the PoSM was operated at 32 mK with an applied field that was generated using a persistent current of 50 mA. Over the four pixels, energy resolution ranges from 4.4 to 4.7 eV were demonstrated.

Bandler, SImon↗

Observations of composition from Pioneer Venus

Long latitude distributions of atmospheric neutral hydrogen were derived at Venus for the period 1979 to 1980. In-situ measurements of H+, O+, O, and CO2 obtained from the ion and neutral mass spectrometers on the Pioneer Venus orbiter are combined with the appropriate chemical equilibrium relationship to determine the abundance of neutral hydrogen which is very difficult to measure directly. The measurements are all obtained below 165 km on the nightside and below 200 km on the dayside, based on evidence for chemical equilibrium prevailing up to those altitudes. During the period examined nearly three complete diurnal cycles were available and a comparison of the year-to-year variation in hydrogen content is made across the dawn region where the distributions of light gases are most pronounced. The dawn bulge in H (and also in He) which was reported from the first diurnal cycle by Brinton et al. is found to persist. Superimposed upon the diurnal variation are strong day-to-day variations in which n(H) changes by as much as a factor of five. Such variations are linked to pronounced changes in the ion and neutral composition which sometimes occur in association with solar wind disturbances passing the planet. The interaction of the solar wind and the planetary environment somehow results in large changes in the relative abundances and scale heights of the ion and neutral species, thus modifying the derived values of n(H). These variations in the ion distributions are not surprising owing to the strong dependence of the nightside ionization upon convection from the dayside and associated sensitivity of this convection to changes in solar wind pressure and interplanetary magnetic field variations. The variation exhibited by the neutrals, however, appears to require some other explanation owing to the limited momemtum transfer between the ions and neturals. Allowing for these short term perturbations, there appears to be no clear evidence for interannual variation in n(H) during the period examined, apparently consistent with the very small change in solar EUV flux over the same interval.

Taylor, H. A., Jr.↗

Cyclically conjugated porphyrin trimers linked through benzo[4,5]imidazo[2,1- a ]isoindole bridges

Cyclically conjugated porphyrin trimers were prepared via a concise synthetic method. Zn-Trimer-1 displayed strong exciton coupling, suggesting the presence of effective electronic interactions. UV-Vis absorption and fluorescence spectra obtained through titration studies on the donor–acceptor adduct (Zn-Trimer-1–C60Im) indicate the occurrence of excited state photo-events. Inspired by nature's photosynthetic process of plants and bacteria, electronically interacting multiporphyrinic systems have long been investigated as synthetic models of natural photosynthetic systems. Remarkable successes have been achieved with cyclic porphyrin arrays, where porphyrins are arranged in a wheel-like structure or nanoring as photosynthetic antennae. Considerable efforts have also been devoted to constructing other porphyrin arrays such as molecular wires for potential applications in sensors, solar energy conversion, non-linear optical (NLO) materials, and more. Due to synthetic difficulties, cyclically conjugated porphyrin arrays in which porphyrins are arranged in planar geometry are very rare. Very recently, Anderson and coworkers have reported unprecedented β,β-directly linked porphyrin trimers and tetramers with different geometries, propeller and saddle, respectively, which result in distinct photophysical and electrochemical properties (Fig. 1a). In this paper, we present novel cyclically conjugated porphyrin trimers, which feature planar geometry with porphyrins assembled around the aromatic triphenylene at the center (Fig. 1b).

Han, Ting↗

Sensitivity of Middle Atmospheric Temperature and Circulation in the UIUC Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere GCM to the Treatment of Subgrid-Scale Gravity-Wave Breaking

The sensitivity of the middle atmospheric temperature and circulation to the treatment of mean- flow forcing due to breaking gravity waves was investigated using the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 40-layer Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere General Circulation Model (MST-GCM). Three GCM experiments were performed. The gravity-wave forcing was represented first by Rayleigh friction, and then by the Alexander and Dunkerton (AD) parameterization with weak and strong breaking effects of gravity waves. In all experiments, the Palmer et al. parameterization was included to treat the breaking of topographic gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Overall, the experiment with the strong breaking effect simulates best the middle atmospheric temperature and circulation. With Rayleigh friction and the weak breaking effect, a large warm bias of up to 60 C was found in the summer upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This warm bias was linked to the inability of the GCM to simulate the reversal of the zonal winds from easterly to westerly crossing the mesopause in the summer hemisphere. With the strong breaking effect, the GCM was able to simulate this reversal, and essentially eliminated the warm bias. This improvement was the result of a much stronger meridional transport circulation that possesses a strong vertical ascending branch in the summer upper mesosphere, and hence large adiabatic cooling. Budget analysis indicates that 'in the middle atmosphere the forces that act to maintain a steady zonal-mean zonal wind are primarily those associated with the meridional transport circulation and breaking gravity waves. Contributions from the interaction of the model-resolved eddies with the mean flow are small. To obtain a transport circulation in the mesosphere of the UIUC MST-GCM that is strong enough to produce the observed cold summer mesopause, gravity-wave forcing larger than 100 m/s/day in magnitude is required near the summer mesopause. In the tropics, only with the AD parameterization can the model produce realistic semiannual oscillations.

Yang, Fanglin↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗