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NASA NTRS1980

Revised depolarization corrections for atmospheric extinction

Possible sources of errors in depolarization data are analyzed with special reference to the rotational Raman contribution to the optical depth. It is shown that the depolarization data now available are so accurate that their uncertainty affects the calculated Rayleigh optical depth by less than 1%, and consequently, the anomalously low extinctions occasionally reported must be due to systematic errors of measurement rather than errors in the Rayleigh optical depths.

Young, A. T.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Non-Gaussian Ensemble Filtering and Adaptive Inflation for Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

The rank histogram filter (RHF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) are assessed for soil moisture estimation using perfect model (identical twin) synthetic data assimilation experiments. The primary motivation is to gauge the impact on analysis quality attributable to the consideration of non-Gaussian forecast error distributions. Using the NASA Catchment land surface model, the two filters are compared at 18 globally-distributed single-catchment locations for a 10-year experiment period. It is shown that both filters yield adequate estimates of soil moisture, with the RHF having a small but significant performance advantage. Most notably, the RHF systematically increases the normalized information contribution (NIC) score of the mean absolute bias by 0.05 over that of the EnKF for surface, root-zone and profile soil moisture. The RHF also increases the NIC score for the anomaly correlation of surface soil moisture by 0.02 over that of the EnKF (at a 5% significance level). Results also demonstrate that the performance of both filters is somewhat improved when the ensemble priors are adaptively inflated to offset the negative effects of systematic errors.

Soil moisture↗

NASA NTRS1976

Absolute oscillator strengths for the iron group - A correction to the data of Warner for the second spectra and a comment on some of the semiempirical results of Kurucz and Peytremann

It has already been shown that the Fe II absolute oscillator strengths (f-values) measured by Warner (1967) contain a systematic error, the magnitude of which depends on the energy of the transition's upper level. The present paper demonstrates that this error affects all of Warner's oscillator strengths for the second spectra of the iron group and develops a correction formula for Warner's results. A comparison of the corrected f-values with other measured f-values for Ti II, V II, and Fe II indicates that the correction improves the usefulness of Warner's data and that the corrected f-values have no large systematic dependence on wavelength, level energy, or line strength. Solar abundances for iron-group elements computed using the original and corrected f-values are compared with recently suggested abundances, and it is found that the corrected f-values yield more consistent results. Semiempirical oscillator strengths calculated by Kurucz and Peytremann (1975) for Fe I, Ti II, and V II are also compared with measured data to evaluate the accuracy of the calculations. It is found that the absolute scales of these results are roughly correct, but some of them are subject to very large errors.

Smith, P. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GeoCarb L2 Validation- Albedo Error Propagation into XCO2 in the Near Infrared

GeoCarb validation activities Pre-launch validation •Thermovac: Nov-Jan, 2022/3: Edwards/Dryden will move to Palo Alto Nov-March 2022/3 •Day-in-the life simulation-2022 •Simulations near Dallas, TX •Validation of TROPOMI in GeoCarb domain-2022 2GeoCarb post-launch GeoCarb will have gas precision of: •0.3% (1.2 ppm) for XCO2 •0.6% (11 ppb) for XCH4 •10% or 12 ppb for XCO GeoCarb SIF with precision of better than 0.75 W/m2/um/sr GeoCarb will utilize TCCON, GML/DOE aircraft, AirCore, and any validation site with systematic errors better than GeoCarb’s

GeoCarb↗

NASA NTRS1988

Effects of model deficiencies on parameter estimation

Reliable structural dynamic models will be required as a basis for deriving the reduced-order plant models used in control systems for large space structures. Ground vibration testing and model verification will play an important role in the development of these models; however, fundamental differences between the space environment and earth environment, as well as variations in structural properties due to as-built conditions, will make on-orbit identification essential. The efficiency, and perhaps even the success, of on-orbit identification will depend on having a valid model of the structure. It is envisioned that the identification process will primarily involve parametric methods. Given a correct model, a variety of estimation algorithms may be used to estimate parameter values. This paper explores the effects of modeling errors and model deficiencies on parameter estimation by reviewing previous case histories. The effects depend at least to some extent on the estimation algorithm being used. Bayesian estimation was used in the case histories presented here. It is therefore conceivable that the behavior of an estimation algorithm might be useful in detecting and possibly even diagnosing deficiencies. In practice, the task is complicated by the presence of systematic errors in experimental procedures and data processing and in the use of the estimation procedures themselves.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Media Calibration in the Deep Space Network: A Status Report

A new media calibration system (MCS) has been implemented at the Goldstone complex of the DSN (Deep Space Network). It is intended to calibrate the delay of radio signals imposed by the neutral atmosphere. The system provides periodic measurements of both the static dry and fluctuating wet components of this delay. In particular, the system will calibrate the fluctuations in line of sight path delay due to atmospheric water vapor that we believe will dominate the error budget for several radio science and radio astronomy experiments. We have compared two of these media calibration systems with a connected element interferometer on a 21 km baseline. In this report we describe a total of 30 observations in which a radio source was tracked for an hour or more and the delay residuals then calibrated using the MCS. The accuracy of the comparison appears to be limited by systematic errors in the interferometer, which are under investigation. However, our results do indicate that the MCS can meet or exceed the two-way Allan standard deviation specification of 1.5 x 10( exp -15) on time scales of 2,000 - 10,000 sec, as required by the Cassini GWE (Gravitational Wave Experiment) for two way Doppler tracking.

Naudet, Charles J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Error trends in SASS winds as functions of atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature

Wind speed measurements obtained with the scatterometer instrument aboard the Seasat satellite are compared equivalent neutral wind measurements obtained from ship reports in the western N. Atlantic and eastern N. Pacific where the concentration of ship reports are high and the ranges of atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature are large. It is found that at low wind speeds the difference between satellite measurements and surface reports depends on sea surface temperature. At wind speeds higher than 8 m/s the dependence was greatly reduced. The removal of systematic errors due to fluctuations in atmospheric stability reduced the r.m.s. difference from 1.7 m/s to 0.8 m/s. It is suggested that further clarification of the effects of fluctuations in atmospheric stability on Seasat wind speed measurements should increase their reliability in the future.

Liu, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Simulated forecast error and climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere in numerical models

Using an NCAR community climate model, Version I, the forecast error growth and the climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere are investigated. In the experiment, the control simulation is a seasonal integration of a medium horizontal general circulation model with 30 levels extending from the surface to the upper mesosphere, while the main experiment uses an identical model, except that only the bottom 15 levels (below 10 mb) are retained. It is shown that both random and systematic errors develop rapidly in the lower stratosphere with some local propagation into the troposphere in the 10-30-day time range. The random growth rate in the troposphere in the case of the altered upper boundary was found to be slightly faster than that for the initial-condition uncertainty alone. However, this is not likely to make a significant impact in operational forecast models, because the initial-condition uncertainty is very large.

Boville, Byron A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Novae as distance indicators

Nova shells are characteristically prolate with equatorial bands and polar caps. Failure to account for the geometry can lead to large errors in expansion parallaxes for individual novae. When simple prescriptions are used for deriving expansion parallaxes from an ensemble of randomly oriented prolate spheroids, the average distance will be too small by factors of 10 to 15 percent. The absolute magnitudes of the novae will be underestimated and the resulting distance scale will be too small by the same factors. If observations of partially resolved nova shells select for large inclinations, the systematic error in the resulting distance scale could easily be 20 to 30 percent. Extinction by dust in the bulge of M31 may broaden and shift the intrinsic distribution of maximum nova magnitudes versus decay rates. We investigated this possibility by projecting Arp's and Rosino's novae onto a composite B - 6200A color map of M31's bulge. Thirty two of the 86 novae projected onto a smooth background with no underlying structure due to the presence of a dust cloud along the line of sight. The distribution of maximum magnitudes versus fade rates for these unreddened novae is indistinguishable from the distribution for the entire set of novae. It is concluded that novae suffer very little extinction from the filamentary and patchy distribution of dust seen in the bulge of M31. Time average B and H alpha nova luminosity functions are potentially powerful new ways to use novae as standard candles. Modern CCD observations and the photographic light curves of M31 novae found during the last 60 years were analyzed to show that these functions are power laws. Consequently, unless the eruption times for novae are known, the data cannot be used to obtain distances.

Ford, Holland C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Error analysis of post-processed orbit determination for the Geosat Follow-On altimetric satellite using GPS tracking

A series of covariance analyses is presented for the Navy's Geosat Follow-On (GFO) altimetric satellite using selective availability/anti-spoof (SA/A-S) qualified (dual frequency) and non-SA/A-S qualified (single frequency) GPS receiver configurations. Data obtained indicate that a SA/A-S qualified GPS receiver is capable of meeting the 10 cm GFO post-processed radial orbit accuracy requirement when using reduced dynamic tracking. The non-SA/A-S qualified receiver is also capable of approaching this 10 cm radial uncertainty level if all systematic errors are removed from the C/A pseudorange and reduced dynamic tracking is used again.

Schreiner, William S.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Single-Band VLBI Absolute Astrometry

The ionospheric path delay impacts single-band very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) group delays, which limits their applicability for absolute astrometry. I consider two important cases: when observations are made simultaneously in two bands, but delays in only one band are available for a subset of observations and when observations are made at one band design. I developed optimal procedures of data analysis for both cases using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) ionosphere maps, provided a stochastic model that describes ionospheric errors, and evaluated their impact on source position estimates. I demonstrate that the stochastic model is accurate at a level of 15%. I found that using GNSS ionospheric maps as is introduces serious biases in estimates of declination and I developed a procedure that almost eliminates them. I found serendipitously that GNSS ionospheric maps have multiplicative errors and have to be scaled by 0.85 in order to mitigate the declination bias. A similar scale factor was found in comparison of the vertical total electron content from satellite altimetry against GNSS ionospheric maps. I favor interpretation of this scaling factor as a manifestation of the inadequacy of the thin shell model of the ionosphere. I showed that we are able to model the ionospheric path delay to the extent that no noticeable systematic errors emerge and we are able to assess adequately the contribution of the ionosphere-driven random errors on source positions. This makes single-band absolute astrometry a viable option that can be used for source position determination.

Radio astrometry↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Structure and Evolution of LOCBURST: The BATSE Burst Location Algorithm

The gamma-ray burst (GRB) location algorithm used to produce the BATSE GRB locations is described. The general flow of control of the current location algorithm is presented, and the significant properties of the various physical inputs required are identified. The development of the burst location algorithm during the releases of the BATSE IB, 2B, and 3B GRB catalogs is presented so that the reasons for the differences in the positions and error estimates between the catalogs can be understood. In particular, differences between the 2B and 3B locations are discussed for events that have moved significantly and the reasons for the changes explained. The locations of bursts located independently by the interplanetary network (IPN) are used to illustrate the effect on burst location accuracy of various components of the algorithm. IPN data and locations from other gamma-ray instruments are used to calculate estimates of the systematic errors on BATSE burst locations.

Pendleton, Geoffrey N.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Structure of Evolution LOCBURST: The BATSE Burst Location Algorithm

The gamma-ray bursts (GRB) location algorithm used to produce the BATSE GRB locations is described. The general flow of control of the current location algorithm is presented and the significant properties of the various physical inputs required are identified. The development of the burst location algorithm during the releases of the BATSE 1B, 2B, and 3B gamma-ray burst catalogs is presented so that the reasons for the differences in the positions and error estimates between the catalogs can be understood. In particular, differences between the 2B and 3B locations are discussed for events that have moved significantly and the reasons for the changes explained. The locations of bursts located independently by the interplanetary network are used to illustrate the effect on burst location accuracy of various components of the algorithm. IPN data as well as locations from other gamma-ray instruments are used to calculate estimates of the systematic errors on BATSE burst locations.

Pendleton, Geoffrey N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of the Continuous Stellar Tracking Attitude Reference (CSTAR) attitude rate processor

The Continuous Stellar Tracking Attitude Reference (CSTAR) system is an in-house project for Space Station to provide high accuracy, drift free attitude and angular rate information for the GN&C system. The outputs of the solid state star trackers are processed to provide attitude information; rate data is then derived from the attitude. Rate derivation is based on discrete time polynomial approximation techniques. This gives simple algorithms which allow for interpolation by other users. Attitude rate is modeled as a constant with low amplitude, low frequency sinusoids superimposed. The rate processor is parameterized to account for the effects of random errors, sample rate, data processing rate and perturbation frequency. The baseline system may be characterized as follows: the three sigma attitude accuracy is 0.01 degrees, the three sigma rate accuracy is 0.0001 degrees per second, the sample rate is 100 Hertz, the sampled signal is bandlimited to 0.5 Hertz, and the data processing rate is 10 Hertz. The above system requires a differentiator of length 127. This will track rate perturbations of frequencies less than 0.01 Hertz with low systematic errors.

Uhde-Lacovara, J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Variation of Great Lakes Water Levels Derived from Geosat Altimetry

A technique for using satellite radar altimetry data to estimate the temporal variation of the water level in moderate to large lakes and enclosed seas is described. Great Lakes data from the first 2 years of the U.S. Navy's Geosat Exact Repeat Mission (November 1986 to November 1988), for which there is an improved orbit, are used to demonstrate the technique. The Geosat results are compared to the lake level data collected by the Great Lakes Section, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and are found to reproduce the temporal variations of the five major lakes with Root-Mean-Square error (RMS) ranging from 9.4 to 13.8 cm and a combined average of 11.1 cm. Geosat data are also analyzed for Lake St. Clair, representing a moderate-sized lake, with a resulting rms of 17.0 cm. During this study period, the water level in the Great Lakes varied in a typical annual cycle of about 0.2 m (0.5 in for Lake Ontario) superimposed on a general decline of approximately 0.5 m. The altimeter data reproduced the general decline reasonably well for all the lakes, but the annual cycle was obscured in some lakes due to systematic errors in the altimeter data. Current and future altimetry missions will have markedly improved accuracy which will permit many moderate (25 km diameter) or larger lakes or enclosed seas to be routinely monitored.

Morris, Charles S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Impact of TRMM and SSM/I-derived Precipitation and Moisture Data on the GEOS Global Analysis

Current global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation, evaporation, and related cloud and moisture in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of space-based rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) estimates to constrain these hydrological parameters in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. We present results showing that assimilating the 6-hour averaged rain rates and TPW estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments improves not only the precipitation and moisture estimates but also reduce state-dependent systematic errors in key climate parameters directly linked to convection such as the outgoing longwave radiation, clouds, and the large-scale circulation. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts beyond 1 day, but the impact is relatively modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged analysis. The study shows that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, improving the short-range forecast is not necessarily prerequisite for improving the assimilation as a climate data set. The full impact of a given type of observation on the assimilated data set should not be measured solely in terms of forecast skills.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Improved Stratospheric Temperature Retrievals for Climate Reanalysis

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is embarking on plans to generate a twenty year reanalysis data set of climatic atmospheric variables. One of the focus points will be in the evaluation of the dynamics of the stratosphere. The Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), flown as part of the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), is one of the primary stratospheric temperature sensors flown consistently throughout the reanalysis period. Seven unique sensors made the measurements over time, with individual instrument characteristics that need to be addressed. The stratospheric temperatures being assimilated across satellite platforms will profoundly impact the reanalysis dynamical fields. To attempt to quantify aspects of instrument and retrieval bias we are carefully collecting and analyzing all available information on the sensors, their instrument anomalies, forward model errors and retrieval biases. For the retrieval of stratospheric temperatures, we adapted the minimum variance approach of Jazwinski (1970) and Rodgers (1976) and applied it to the SSU soundings. In our algorithm, the state vector contains an initial guess of temperature from a model six hour forecast provided by the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System (GEOS/DAS). This is combined with an a priori covariance matrix, a forward model parameterization, and specifications of instrument noise characteristics. A quasi-Newtonian iteration is used to obtain convergence of the retrieved state to the measurement vector. This algorithm also enables us to analyze and address the systematic errors associated with the unique characteristics of the cell pressures on the individual SSU instruments and the resolving power of the instruments to vertical gradients in the stratosphere. The preliminary results of the improved retrievals and their assimilation as well as baseline calculations of bias and rms error between the NESDIS operational product and col-located ground measurements will be presented.

Rokke, L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Estimation of geopotential differences over intercontinental locations using satellite and terrestrial measurements

An error analysis study was conducted in order to assess the current accuracies and the future anticipated improvements in the estimation of geopotential differences over intercontinental locations. An observation/estimation scheme was proposed and studied, whereby gravity disturbance measurements on the Earth's surface, in caps surrounding the estimation points, are combined with corresponding data in caps directly over these points at the altitude of a low orbiting satellite, for the estimation of the geopotential difference between the terrestrial stations. The mathematical modeling required to relate the primary observables to the parameters to be estimated, was studied for the terrestrial data and the data at altitude. Emphasis was placed on the examination of systematic effects and on the corresponding reductions that need to be applied to the measurements to avoid systematic errors. The error estimation for the geopotential differences was performed using both truncation theory and least squares collocation with ring averages, in case observations on the Earth's surface only are used. The error analysis indicated that with the currently available global geopotential model OSU89B and with gravity disturbance data in 2 deg caps surrounding the estimation points, the error of the geopotential difference arising from errors in the reference model and the cap data is about 23 kgal cm, for 30 deg station separation.

Pavlis, Nikolaos K.↗