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NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Solar Microflare with BATSE

Our work on detecting and cataloging solar microflares using an automated method is illustrated in the accompanying figure. The figure represents the solar microflare distribution during the period of April 1991 to November 1992, the height of solar activity after the launch of The Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO). It also shows the distribution extending below the distribution obtained at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) by manual means. We have implemented significant refinements in the search algorithm. The algorithm in its simplest form searches for transient events and based upon the distribution of the signal among the different Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detectors, we can assign it to be of solar origin if the signal distribution conforms to what one expects from a burst or transient from that direction. One of the major problems in the earlier effort was to search for microflares and large flares simultaneously. The requirement for a dynamic range of almost 10 (exp 4) resulted in ambiguous identifications at the low side of the distribution. We have since restricted the search to events with peak count rates under 2000 s (exp -1). Larger events are easily identified in the manual search, so we have chosen not to duplicate that work. The second problem was that missing counts existed below channel 0 in the Burst and Transient Source Experiment Large Area Detector data (BATSE LAD). These have been recovered and are now included in the search process. This provides data below 20 keV, and as we get closer to the thermal part of the spectrum, it provides greater sensitivity. The third problem was that too many BATSE detector were used in the search. Detectors with pointing directions far from the Sun, although detecting the event, had poorly known responses. Detectors greater than approximately 60 deg. off the Sun are no longer included in the search process. By reducing the systematic errors with the large off-axis detectors we can conduct more rigorous statistical tests of a candidate event to ascertain whether it originated from the solar direction. We have reprocessed the period in the early mission that covers solar maximum and constructed the microflare distribution shown in the figure. The results of the automated search start to deviate from the manual search results below about 1000 s (exp -1). Not only do we now have this distribution but we have a database of solar microflares that was used to construct the distribution. This database contains the signal at higher energy channels as well as that in channel zero (and below). From this one can, using software at GSFC, construct a photon spectrum for some of the larger microflares. It can also be used in other solar studies, especially those that correlate the X-ray flux with emission at other wavelengths. With some additional effort we hope to integrate this database into the corresponding one residing at the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC. The entire CGRO mission's data can now be reprocessed to obtain the microflare distribution at all phases of the solar cycle. This work is in progress. The results of this work will be presented in forthcoming scientific workshops and conferences.

Ryan, James M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Spectral Modeling of the EGRET 3EG Gamma Ray Sources Near the Galactic Plane

The third EGRET catalog lists 84 sources within 10 deg of the Galactic Plane. Five of these are well-known spin-powered pulsars, 2 and possibly 3 others are blazars, and the remaining 74 are classified as unidentified, although 6 of these are likely to be artifacts of nearby strong sources. Several of the remaining 68 unidentified sources have been noted as having positional agreement with supernovae remnants and OB associations. Others may be radio-quiet pulsars like Geminga, and still others may belong to a totally new class of sources. The question of the energy spectral distributions of these sources is an important clue to their identification. In this paper, the spectra of the sources within 10 deg of Galactic Plane are fit with three different functional forms; a single power law, two power laws, and a power law with an exponential cutoff. Where possible, the best fit is selected with statistical tests. Twelve, and possibly an additional 5 sources, are found to have spectra that are fit by a breaking power law or by the power law with exponential cutoff function.

Bertsch, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Monthly Oceanic Rainfall Derived from Space-Borne Microwave Data

A technique for estimating monthly oceanic rainfall rate using multi-channel microwave measurements has been developed. This technique is applied to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data since 1987 to infer monthly rainfall for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). A modified version of this algorithm is now being applied to the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. There are three prominent features of this algorithm. First, the knowledge of the form of the rainfall intensity probability density function used to augment the measurements. Second, utilizing a linear combination of the 19.35 and 22.235 GHz channels to deemphasize the effect of water vapor. Third, an objective technique has been developed to estimate the rain layer thickness from the 19.35 and 22.23 5 GHz brightness temperature histograms, TMI data with better spatial resolution and 24 hour sampling (vs. sun-synchronized sampling, which is limited to two narrow intervals of local solar time for DMSP satellites) prompt us to study the similarity and difference between these two rainfall estimates. One year of rainfall data (January to December 1998) are used in this study. The mean differences of these two rain estimates are typically less than 15%. Statistical tests are administrated to evaluate the differences between rainfall estimates from SSM/I and TMI data. Differences between TMI and SSM/I rain estimates are discussed in the context of radiative transfer calculations and rainfall estimate algorithm.

Chang, Alfred T. C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Dynamics of the Impacts

The SL9 impacts are best known by their plumes, several of which were imaged towering 3000 km above Jupiter's limb. The heat released when they fen back on the atmosphere produced the famous infrared main events. The reentry shock was observed directly in CO emission and indirectly through thermally glowing dust. The relatively low color temperature of the latter implies that most of the energy released on reentry was radiated. If so, the R impact released some 3 x 10(exp 26) ergs, and the larger L, K, and G impacts as much as 3 x 10(exp 27) ergs. These estimates agree well with impact energies deduced from tidal disruption computations. The duration of the infrared events measures time aloft and hence provides a second measure of plume height. These indicate that plume height was only weakly dependent on impact energy. Evidently all the plumes were launched at roughly 10-13 km/s. Using a semi-analytic model for the deceleration, disintegration, and destruction of intruding bodies by an ever-vigilant atmosphere, we find that similar plume heights is a direct consequence of smaller impactors exploding at higher altitudes, in such a way that the different explosions were geometrically similar. We then compare the predictions of our model to the Venerian cratering record, which provides a good statistical test of impact deceleration by a thick atmosphere. Chemistry should have provided an independent measure of explosion altitude: abundant shock-generated CS, CS2 and HCN indicates a source in dry jovian air, above the putative water clouds. However, the Galileo Probe results seem to imply that we should expect no more. Observed water and S2 are consistent with a somewhat oxidized gas (presumably the comet itself), but the absence of SO2 and CO2 shows that conditions were neither too oxidizing nor the shocks too hot.

Zahnle, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Application of Lidar to Synthetic Vision System Integrity

One goal in the development of a Synthetic Vision System (SVS) is to create a system that can be certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for use at various flight criticality levels. As part of NASA s Aviation Safety Program, Ohio University and NASA Langley have been involved in the research and development of real-time terrain database integrity monitors for SVS. Integrity monitors based on a consistency check with onboard sensors may be required if the inherent terrain database integrity is not sufficient for a particular operation. Sensors such as the radar altimeter and weather radar, which are available on most commercial aircraft, are currently being investigated for use in a real-time terrain database integrity monitor. This paper introduces the concept of using a Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) sensor as part of a real-time terrain database integrity monitor. A LiDAR system consists of a scanning laser ranger, an inertial measurement unit (IMU), and a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. Information from these three sensors can be combined to generate synthesized terrain models (profiles), which can then be compared to the stored SVS terrain model. This paper discusses an initial performance evaluation of the LiDAR-based terrain database integrity monitor using LiDAR data collected over Reno, Nevada. The paper will address the consistency checking mechanism and test statistic, sensitivity to position errors, and a comparison of the LiDAR-based integrity monitor to a radar altimeter-based integrity monitor.

Campbell, Jacob L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The X-Ray Variable Sky

A novel approach to search for rapid time variability of every source, whether persistent or transient, within the entire ROSAT detector field has been developed. Semi-automated software statistically tests the photon arrival time event list for source variability and reports significant (greater than 5 sigma) variable enhancement in the photon count rate on time scales ranging from 5-500 seconds. The computational algorithms have been thoroughly tested, and are able to discriminate between false detections induced by instrumental effects, and real X-ray variable sources (XRVs); when carefully scrutinized by the PI. The analysis has proven to be successful, with both periodic and transient XRVs having been found. Some of these are entirely new discoveries, while others have been detected in previous X-ray missions, yet their nature remained elusive since source identification and analysis had yet to be performed. On average, one new (unidentified) XRV is found per ROSAT PSPC field analyzed. In some cases the XRVs show only a transient signature (a burst type event) with no persistent X-ray or other known (optical) counterpart. The ambitious goal of this project was to process as much of the ROSAT PSPC archive data as feasibly possible to discover XRVs and analyze this data.

Stringfellow, Guy↗
NASA NTRS2004

Validation and Improvement of SRTM Performance over Rugged Terrain

We have previously reported work related to basic technique development in phase unwrapping and generation of digital elevation models (DEM). In the final year of this work we have applied our technique work to the improvement of DEM's produced by SRTM. In particular, we have developed a rigorous mathematical algorithm and means to fill in missing data over rough terrain from other data sets. We illustrate this method by using a higher resolution, but globally less accurate, DEM produced by the TOPSAR airborne instrument over the Galapagos Islands to augment the SRTM data set in this area, We combine this data set with SRTM to use each set to fill in holes left over by the other imaging system. The infilling is done by first interpolating each data set using a prediction error filter that reproduces the same statistical characterization as exhibited by the entire data set within the interpolated region. After this procedure is implemented on each data set, the two are combined on a point by point basis with weights that reflect the accuracy of each data point in its original image. In areas that are better covered by SRTM, TOPSAR data are weighted down but still retain TOPSAR statistics. The reverse is true for regions better covered by TOPSAR. The resulting DEM passes statistical tests and appears quite feasible to the eye, but as this DEM is the best available for the region we cannot fully veri@ its accuracy. Spot checks with GPS points show that locally the technique results in a more comprehensive and accurate map than either data set alone.

Zebker, Howard A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Modelling the Soft X-Ray and EUV Emission in Classical Novae: EUVE and ROSAT Observations of V1974 Cygni

We have conducted an extensive analysis of the observability of Classical Novae with the EUVE Lex/B and Al/Ti/C detectors. Predicted count rates have been computed using optically thin, isothermal plasma models for solar and metal-rich compositions, and hot ONeMg white dwarf model atmospheres. We find EUVE to be quite sensitive to both the EUV and soft X-ray emission emitted by the underlying hot white dwarf during novae outbursts, except for the coolest temperatures with very high intervening hydrogen column density. These results are used to interpret the emission detected during the EUVE all-sky survey of Nova Cygni 1992 (approx. = V1974 Cyg), 279-290 days after visual maximum. We find the best fit to the observed emission from V1974 Cyg arises from a hot ONeMg white dwarf with surface temperature approx. 4 x l0(exp 5) K and a mas of approx. 1.2 solar mass, and derive an interstellar hydrogen column density of approx. 3 x 10(exp 21)/sq cm. Virtually all this emission arises from supersoft X-rays rather than the EUV. We also report the detection of V1974 Cyg with the EUVE Deep Survey detector at 549 days after visual maximum. This observation is compatible with the above properties, indicating that the mechanism responsible for the soft X-ray emission, connected with the underlying white dwarf, had not yet entirely turned off. We also present analysis of a ROSAT PSPC observation which is contemporaneous with the EUVE survey observations; this independently confirms the high column density we derived from the EUVE survey observation. Light curves for the EUVE and ROSAT observations are presented. Statistical tests for variability show that all of these observations are indeed highly variable over various time scales. The EUVE survey data shows one day variations, the EUVE DS data show approx. 30 minute fluctuations, while the ROSAT data vary rapidly on time scales of seconds. The EUVE data shows no periodic variability on any time scale. The implications of the rapid variability are briefly discussed.

Stringfellow, Guy S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Effect of a growth hormone treatment on bone orthotropic elasticity in dwarf rats

A refinement of the current ultrasonic elasticity technique was used to measure the orthotropic elastic properties of rat cortical bone as well as to quantify changes in elastic properties, density, and porosity of the dwarf rat cortex after a treatment with recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH). The ultrasonic elasticity technique was refined via optimized signal management of high-frequency wave propagation through cubic cortical specimens. Twenty dwarf rats (37 days old) were randomly assigned to two groups (10 rats each). The dwarf rat model (5-10% of normal GH) was given subcutaneous injections of either rhGH or saline over a 14-day treatment period. Density was measured using Archimedes technique. Porosity and other microstructural characteristics were also explored via scanning electron microscopy and image analysis. Statistical tests verified significant decreases in cortical orthotropic Young's (-26.7%) and shear (-16.7%) moduli and density (-2.42%) concomitant with an increase in porosity (+125%) after rhGH treatments to the dwarf model (p < 0.05). A change in material symmetry from orthotropy toward planar isotropy within the radial-circumferential plane after GH treatments was also noted. These results demonstrate some alteration in bone properties at this time interval. Structural implications of these changes throughout physiological loading regimens should be explored.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗
NASA NTRS1995

Evaluation of nearest-neighbor methods for detection of chimeric small-subunit rRNA sequences

Detection of chimeric artifacts formed when PCR is used to retrieve naturally occurring small-subunit (SSU) rRNA sequences may rely on demonstrating that different sequence domains have different phylogenetic affiliations. We evaluated the CHECK_CHIMERA method of the Ribosomal Database Project and another method which we developed, both based on determining nearest neighbors of different sequence domains, for their ability to discern artificially generated SSU rRNA chimeras from authentic Ribosomal Database Project sequences. The reliability of both methods decreases when the parental sequences which contribute to chimera formation are more than 82 to 84% similar. Detection is also complicated by the occurrence of authentic SSU rRNA sequences that behave like chimeras. We developed a naive statistical test based on CHECK_CHIMERA output and used it to evaluate previously reported SSU rRNA chimeras. Application of this test also suggests that chimeras might be formed by retrieving SSU rRNAs as cDNA. The amount of uncertainty associated with nearest-neighbor analyses indicates that such tests alone are insufficient and that better methods are needed.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2005

Regional Deformation Studies with GRACE and GPS

GRACE data indicate large seasonal variations in gravity that have been shown to be to be related to climate-driven fluxes of surface water. Seasonal redistribution of surface mass deforms the Earth, and our previous study using GRACE data demonstrate that annual radial deformations of +/-13 mm in the region of Amazon River Basin were observed by both GRACE and ten GPS sites in the region. For the GRACE determinations, we estimate in a least-squares solution for each Stokes coefficient parameters that represent the amplitudes of the annual variation. We then filter these parameters based on a statistical test that uses the scatter of the postfit residuals. We demonstrate by comparison to the GPS amplitudes that this method is more accurate, for this region, than Gaussian smoothing. Our model for the temporal behavior of the gravity coefficients includes a rate term, and although the time series are noisy, the glacial isostatic adjustment signal over Hudson s Bay can be observed. .

Davis, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations

The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.

Charlton, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Side by Side Comparison of Filter-Based PM(sub 2.5) Measurements at a Suburban Site: A Closure Study

Reliable determination of the effects of air quality on public health and the environment requires accurate measurement of PM(sub 2.5) mass and the individual chemical components of fine aerosols. This study seeks to evaluate PM(sub 2.5) measurements that are part of a newly established national network by comparing them with a more conventional sampling system. Experiments were carried out during 2002 at a suburban site in Maryland, United States, where two samplers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Speciation Trends Network: Met One Speciation Air Sampling System STNS and Thermo Scientific Reference Ambient Air Sampler STNR, two Desert Research Institute Sequential Filter Samplers DRIF, and a continuous TEOM monitor (Thermo Scientific Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance) were sampling air in parallel. These monitors differ not only in sampling configuration but also in protocol-specific sample analysis procedures. Measurements of PM(sub 2.5) mass and major contributing species were well correlated among the different methods with r-values > 0.8. Despite the good correlations, daily concentrations of PM(sub 2.5) mass and major contributing species were significantly different at the 95% confidence level from 5 to 100% of the time. Larger values of PM(sub 2.5) mass and individual species were generally reported from STNR and STNS. The January STNR average PM(sub 2.5) mass (8.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter) was 1.5 (micro)g/per cubic meter larger than the DRIF average mass. The July STNS average PM(sub 2.5) mass (27.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter) was 3.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter larger than the DRIF average mass. These differences can only be partially accounted for by known random errors. Variations in flow control, face velocity, and sampling artifacts likely influence the measurement of PM(sub 2.5) speciation and mass closure. Simple statistical tests indicate that the current uncertainty estimates used in the STN network may underestimate the actual uncertainty.

Haines, Jennifer C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Weekend Effect for Precipitation Over Eastern U.S.: Evidence for Midweek Storm Intensification by Pollution

Every week the U.S. population carries out a climate-change experiment by varying their activities with the day of the week. It is well documented that pollution levels vary on a weekly basis. Particulate aerosol pollution is generally a maximum in the middle of the week and a minimum on weekends. It is also well known that aerosols can affect precipitation, although whether they suppress or enhance storm development depends on many factors. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has provided evidence that rain statistics change with the day of the week over the southeast U.S. and neighboring waters during the summer months (JJA) of 1998-2005. There is a midweek increase in both rain area and intensity over land, and a midweek decrease over the nearby Atlantic and perhaps the Gulf of Mexico. Statistical tests suggest that the weekly variations are very unlikely to be due to the random behavior of weather. We will discuss the TRMM evidence. Wind data from model reanalysis, rain-gauge data, and TRMM radar data all appear to be consistent with the picture that aerosols are causing summertime storms to grow more vigorously and to produce more rainfall.

Bell, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2010

Long-Term Stability of Radio Sources in VLBI Analysis

Positional stability of radio sources is an important requirement for modeling of only one source position for the complete length of VLBI data of presently more than 20 years. The stability of radio sources can be verified by analyzing time series of radio source coordinates. One approach is a statistical test for normal distribution of residuals to the weighted mean for each radio source component of the time series. Systematic phenomena in the time series can thus be detected. Nevertheless, an inspection of rate estimation and weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) variations about the mean is also necessary. On the basis of the time series computed by the BKG group in the frame of the ICRF2 working group, 226 stable radio sources with an axis stability of 10 as could be identified. They include 100 ICRF2 axes-defining sources which are determined independently of the method applied in the ICRF2 working group. 29 stable radio sources with a source structure index of less than 3.0 can also be used to increase the number of 295 ICRF2 defining sources.

Engelhardt, Gerald↗
NASA NTRS2011

EOS MLS Level 1B Data Processing Software

This software is an improvement on Version 2, which was described in EOS MLS Level 1B Data Processing, Version 2.2, NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 5 (May 2009), p. 34. It accepts the EOS MLS Level 0 science/engineering data, and the EOS Aura spacecraft ephemeris/attitude data, and produces calibrated instrument radiances and associated engineering and diagnostic data. This version makes the code more robust, improves calibration, provides more diagnostics outputs, defines the Galactic core more finely, and fixes the equator crossing. The Level 1 processing software manages several different tasks. It qualifies each data quantity using instrument configuration and checksum data, as well as data transmission quality flags. Statistical tests are applied for data quality and reasonableness. The instrument engineering data (e.g., voltages, currents, temperatures, and encoder angles) is calibrated by the software, and the filter channel space reference measurements are interpolated onto the times of each limb measurement with the interpolates being differenced from the measurements. Filter channel calibration target measurements are interpolated onto the times of each limb measurement, and are used to compute radiometric gain. The total signal power is determined and analyzed by each digital autocorrelator spectrometer (DACS) during each data integration. The software converts each DACS data integration from an autocorrelation measurement in the time domain into a spectral measurement in the frequency domain, and estimates separately the spectrally, smoothly varying and spectrally averaged components of the limb port signal arising from antenna emission and scattering effects. Limb radiances are also calibrated.

Perun, Vincent S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in 2010 Relative to Previous Years

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗