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NASA NTRS2021

A Phenomenon-Based Decomposition of Model-Based Estimates of Boreal Winter ENSO Variability

Climate models are now routinely being used to simulate and predict climate variability on time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to seasonal and longer. As such, there are now long histories of such simulations and predictions spanning multiple decades and multiple ensemble members, both of which are crucial for separating climate signal from climate noise. A key focus of such runs has been the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), spurred by recent improvements in our ability to predict such events, though questions remain as to how well climate models do beyond simply always predicting the “canonical” atmospheric response to an ENSO event—something simple statistical models already do reasonably well. This is a critical issue that needs addressing, given the importance of event-to-event differences for predicting regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections, and the need to justify the expense of running sophisticated climate models. Unfortunately, current diagnostic tools are not well suited for quantifying the different sources of variability associated with specific phenomena such as ENSO. More generally, while much effort has focused on addressing model bias, less has been done to address errors in second moment statistics—an issue whose importance is gaining increased attention particularly as we build climate prediction systems capable of taking advantage of forecasts of opportunity—a capability that requires reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. In this report, we outline a phenomenon-based statistical decomposition of climate variance(in essence a detailed variance budget)that is specifically tailored to address the above questions by separating the variability (both the signal and noise) into that tied to the long-term average impact of a particular phenomenon(the composite mean) and the event-to-event(E2E) variability about the composite mean. In addition, we provide related decompositions of the correlations that allow us to quantify how much of the agreement with observations (the skill) comes from the composite mean as opposed to from the E2Evariability. As an example, we present the results of such a decomposition for ENSO based on simulations with the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a focus on the monthly mean impacts over North America during boreal winter(December –March). Here we take advantage of existing GEOS AGCM simulations that were produced as companion simulations to MERRA-2for the period 1980-2016. Comparisons are made throughout with MERRA-2.

ENSO↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microchannel-based Membrane-less Extraction of Li from Unconventional Lithium Sources & the Separation of REE

This final report provides an overview of the Project's entire duration, covering July 1, 2021 to December 31, 2023. It primarily focuses on the achievements, technological developments, and unique challenges the team faced while working on separating and extracting Lithium from produced waters. The project's primary aim was to create an integrated, high-throughput, membrane-less, and modular microfluidic platform that could extract Lithium from unconventional sources. We have successfully met all goals and milestones envisioned in the SOPO document. The most critical primary milestones, including the Go-No-Go milestone (refer to the Gantt chart in the Appendices), were successfully accomplished. We demonstrated phase separation (>90%) and extraction (>85%) performance in the MPSE using synthetic, and representative produced water composition feed at 50 ml/min total flow through MPSE 36. We have also performed a parametric study of the MPSE operations, beyond the scope of SOPO, exploring operating conditions of current and broader interest. The extended investigation of operational parameters is concurrent with our efforts to seek further development of the MPSE technology beyond the scope of the Project. Along these lines of development, we have made efforts to be responsive to DOE calls for technological developments of other types of resources (beyond PW) for the recovery of Critical Materials and higher TRL development (beyond TRL 4). During the work on this Project, we developed and implemented three innovative technical approaches that emerged from our efforts to successfully meet the Project milestones. The innovative & original technical approaches developed and implemented in this Project are now the contributions to process engineering that could be clearly credited to the Project. First, Convergent Design Approach is a comprehensive feedforward & feedback loop of four design phases: i) design for functionality, ii) design for manufacturing, iii) design for sustainability, and iv) design for market. Next was Process Intensification. A major aim of this Project was to create an innovative phase separation & extraction microscale-based technology for Li separation – thus the words microchannel-based in the Project title. A microscale-based technology is intrinsically in the center of the Process Intensification domain as defined by its unique principles. Therefore, Process Intensification was implicitly envisioned in the Project’s SOPO. Lastly, Time Scale Analysis is a novel tool for discovering the needs and directions of Process Intensification implementations in any process technology. This Project is fully credited for developing and implementing the three novel technical approaches mentioned above. These are general contributions to process engineering that emerged from this Project. Beyond the original SOPO scope, the OSU-U.Pitt research group utilized a Convergent Design methodology, integrating first-principles mathematical modeling with experimental validation on the Minimum Development Vehicle. By creating these Digital Twins, the team rapidly assessed manufacturing iterations to support TEA analysis. This framework further enabled the development of advanced Surface Modification Techniques, where hydrophobic and oleophobic coating strategies were optimized via Digital Twin tools and validated through rigorous 100-hour longevity testing. TEA Analysis: The closing efforts of this Project were focused on the TEA analysis. TEA analysis had two primary functions: i) enabling critical assessments of design variations withing 10 the Concurrent Design Approach, thus enabling evolution of the MPSE design to reach faster- better-cheaper alternatives; and ii) to create a bridge between the accomplishments of this Project and future projects of higher TRL, beyond TRL 6 level. It is important to note that the TEA model created in the Project stirred the technological solutions for the recovery of critical materials toward a vision of a very profitable modular plant that has unique zero-waste water discharge signature. More importantly, thanks to our experimental performance data and conservative assumptions, the TEA model predicts minimal technological and investment risks. Low cost of a modular unit of a nominal capacity of [1000 tons of Li 2 CO 3 /year] positions the MPSE based technology within the reach of community investors, thus offering a paradigm shift in the development of critical technologies. The project successfully navigated two primary challenges: solvent selection and manufacturing adaptation. Restricted by the SOPO to existing literature for lithium recovery, the team identified a critical need for a "material excellence program" to develop next-generation solvents, eventually concluding with a preliminary investigation into promising Ionic Liquids (ILs). Simultaneously, COVID-19 supply chain disruptions forced a pivot from traditional manufacturing to advanced additive methods at ATAMI-OSU. By transitioning from stainless steel to 3D-printed polymer substrates, the team achieved a transformative three-order-of- magnitude reduction in manufacturing costs and compressed prototyping timelines from several months to just two days. The MPSE technology offers significant energy, environmental, and economic advantages by overcoming the traditional bottlenecks of phase-separation hardware and contactor size. Unlike conventional mixer-settlers or membrane-based systems, MPSE operates without moving parts or fouling-prone membranes, achieving robust performance even with challenging, viscous, or particulate-heavy feeds. Key performance metrics include an energy intensity reduction of 5–50x (3–40 kJ/m 3 ) compared to incumbent technologies and a dramatic reduction of processing time to under 60 seconds, which drastically reduces the physical plant footprint. These technical efficiencies translate into superior economic outcomes; for a 100 t/year Li 2 CO 3 facility, implementing MPSE is projected to nearly halve contactor CAPEX (from $\$$6.08M to $\$$3.01M) and significantly increase the project's Net Present Value (NPV), derisking new investment and enabling distributed critical-mineral processing configurations. The commercialization of MPSE technology is being spearheaded by Vigsur Dynamics Inc., which has adopted a structured, parallel approach to technical and business development since its formation in January 2026. Following extensive customer discovery and engagement with the Oregon State University accelerator, Vigsur Dynamics is working to establish a business model that transitions from pilot demonstrations to modular hardware sales, ultimately aiming for a "build-own-operate" service strategy. Current technical milestones—including 100 hours of continuous operation, superior energy efficiency, and successful 6-unit modular scale-up— provide a foundation for this transition. Backed by ongoing IP licensing and a growing network of industrial and venture advisors, the company is actively de-risking the platform to replace conventional mixer-settler systems in the critical minerals market.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1998

Final Report

This grant was made to fund two accepted proposals to observe with the ASCA satellite: (1) Debunking the myth of two-temperature coronae of active stars, and (2) Dynamic coronae of dMe stars. We obtained the requested observations and have now completed two papers that will be published in the Astrophysical Journal. The RS CVn binary star UX Ari was observed for 14 hours with all four detectors onboard the ASCA satellite. The X-ray emission was at a constant, quiescent level during the first 12 hours, after which time a powerful flare with a peak luminosity of 1.4 x 10(exp 32) ergs/s started. The flare was observed until shortly after its peak. We present a spectral and temporal analysis of the UX Ari observations and analyze the data with a two-ribbon flare model including estimates for cooling losses. A time-dependent reconstruction of the emission measure (EM) distribution shows that two separate plasma components evolve during the flare (one being identified with the quiescent EM). Most of the flare EM reaches temperatures between 50 MK and 100 MK or more. Magnetic confinement requires the loop arcade to be geometrically large, with length scales on the order of one stellar radius. The electron densities inferred from the model decrease from initial values around 10(exp 12)/cc early in the flare to about 10(exp 11)/cc at the flare peak. The best-fit models require surface magnetic field strengths of a few hundred G, compatible with the maximum photospheric fields expected from equipartition. The flare parameters imply a (conductive and radiative) cooling loss time of less than one hour at flare peak. The elemental abundances increase significantly during the flare rise, with the abundances of the low-FIP elements Fe, Mg, Si, and Ni typically increasing to higher levels than the high-FIP elements such as S or Ne. The Fe abundance increases from (17 +/- 4)% of the solar photospheric value during quiescence up to (89 +/- 18)% at flare peak. A fractionation process that occurs during the chromospheric evaporation phase may selectively enrich low-FIP elements as in the solar corona; alternatively, the chromospheric evaporation may itself bring metal-rich plasma into the metal-poor corona.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

FE-60 and the evolution of eucrites

We have recently presented evidence for the existence of live Fe-60 in the early solar system. This evidence comes from observations of 2.4 to 50 epsilon unit (1 part in 10(exp 4)) relative excesses of Ni-60 measured in samples from the eucrite Chervony Kut (CK). These isotopic excesses have been produced by the decay of the short-lived radionuclide Fe-60 (T(sub 1/2) = 1.5 Ma). Because CK originates from a planetesimal which was totally molten and its high Fe/Ni ratio is due to a planet-wide Fe-Ni fractionation during metal-silicate segregation, the presence of the Fe-60 decay product indicates the large scale abundance of Fe-60 in the early solar system and its presence during differentiation of this planetesimal. The observed variable Ni-60 excesses in different bulk samples and mineral separates from CK can only be understood if some Fe-60 was still alive at the time when basaltic magma had solidified on the eucrite parent body. The lack of a correlation between Ni-60 and the respective Fe/Ni ratios in different mineral fractions from CK indicates a metamorphic remobilization of Ni after essentially all Fe-60 has decayed. However, Ni-60 from three bulk samples from different locations within the meteorite appears to correlate reasonably well with the respective Fe/Ni ratios. If we regard this correlation as an isochron then its slope yields a Fe-60/Fe-56 ratio f (3.9 +/- 0.6) x 10(exp -9) and an initial Ni-60 of 3.2 plus or minus 0.9 epsilon units at the time of crystallization of CK. Estimates based on these values and a approximately 10 Ma time interval between CK solidification and formation of the earliest condensates in the solar system followed by rapid accretion of planetary bodies indicate that the decay of Fe-60 could produce sufficient heat to melt these planetesimals. If Al-26 was present on a planetary scale as Fe-60 and at abundances close to values observed in Allende inclusions then melting of small early formed planets is inevitable. As an attempt to further explore the Fe-60/Ni-60 isotope system as an early solar system chronometer we studied another noncumulate eucrite, Juvinas (JUV) (sample USNM 1051), which belongs to the same subgroup as CK.

Shukolyukov, A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalability Analysis of Quantum Models for Stress and Emotion Detection

Stress and emotion detection from high-dimensional physiological signals is a challenging task, particularly when aiming for accurate classification across diverse behavioral states. Quantum machine learning (QML) is promising for modeling such high-dimensional data, but scalability is limited by qubit resources and the exponential cost of classical statevector simulation. This work studies the scalability of quantum support vector machines (QSVMs) for binary stress detection and three-class emotion recognition (Negative/Neutral/Positive) under varying qubit counts and angle-encoding strategies. We also present a comparison study with one-feature-per-qubit (1:1) and two-features-per-qubit (2:1) mappings. Experiments are executed on HPC infrastructure using NVIDIA CUDA-Q to evaluate performance, variance, and class-dependent separability at higher-qubit setups. Results show that larger Hilbert spaces can improve peak accuracy but may increase instability. At the same time, dense 2:1 encoding yields more consistent stress detection performance. For emotion recognition, scaling improves discrimination for classes like Negative and Positive more than Neutral. We find that effective QML scaling is task-dependent and benefits more from encoding design than simply increasing qubit count.

Onim, Md. Saif Hassan [University of Tennessee, Kn↗
NASA NTRS1988

The radial and longitudinal propagation characteristics of substorm injections

This paper presents a statistical study of the radial and azimuthal propagation of substorm effects in the near-geosynchronous magnetotail. Data from five spacecraft (AMPTE/CCE, 1979-053, 1982-019, GOES-5, and GOES-6) have been used in the study. Since CCE has an apogee of 8.8 earth radii, those data allow for the study of both the radial and azimuthal propagation characteristics of substorm events. A list of ion injections was compiled from CCE energetic particle data obtained in 1985 and 1986. Those injections are dispersionless over an energy range of 25 to 285 keV on a 72-sec time scale. Dispersionless injections during which 1979-053 or 1982-019 were on the nightside in close longitudinal proximity to CCE were selected for the study. The most significant correlation in the data is between the local time separation between any two spacecraft and the time delay between the local onsets.

Lopez, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Particle Segregation in Collisional Shearing Flows

The size segregation of flowing or shaken grains is a commonly observed phenomenon in industrial processes and in nature. In systems that do not involve much agitation of the grains, several mechanisms that involve gravity have been identified as leading to such segregation. In highly agitated flows, there is a mechanism independent of gravity that is available to drive separation of different grains. This is associated with spatial gradients in the energy of their velocity fluctuations. Because collisions between grains inevitably dissipate energy, collisional granular shear flows are usually of limited extent in the direction transverse to the flow. One consequence of this is that shear flows are strongly influenced by their boundaries. Because grains, on average, slip relative to boundaries, a bumpy or frictional boundary can convert slip energy into fluctuation energy. However, because each collision between a grain and the boundary dissipates fluctuation energy, there is a competition between production and dissipation. In principle, it is possible to design the geometry of the boundary - for example, the size and spacing of the bumps - so that the boundary either produces or dissipates fluctuation energy. This permits the control of the component of the spatial gradient of the fluctuation energy that is normal to the boundary. The gradients in fluctuation energy established by such boundaries may be exploited to drive the separation by size or other properties in a binary mixture of spherical grains. Microgravity makes the visual observations possible by permitting us to employ moderate rates of shear. On earth, the effects of gravity can be minimized by shearing so rapidly that the particle pressure overwhelms gravity. However, in this event, separation takes place too rapidly for visual observation, buoyancy and/or condensation associated with the centripetal acceleration must be accounted for, and the particles can be severely damaged. Because, in the absence of gravity, the only available time scale is proportional to the speed of the moving boundary, this speed can be made arbitrarily slow to permit observations and to avoid particle damage, without altering the phenomenon under study. The primary goal of this research is to carry out a physical experiment in which particle segregation is induced and maintained in a collisional flow of a binary mixture of two different types of spheres.

Jenkins, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2022

On the Importance of Neutral Composition and Temperature Measurements in the 100–200 km Altitude Region

Currently, thermospheric species densities and temperatures between ∼100 and 200 km are not known to the accuracy needed to fully characterize how the thermosphere transitions from a well-mixed atmosphere to a diffusively separated atmosphere with zero temperature gradient. This greatly inhibits scientific discovery attainable from either models or observations in this region, especially the understanding of mechanisms that drive thermosphere and ionospheric variability from space weather to climatological time scales. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance and critical need for new, global, height-resolved neutral composition (O, O2, N2) and temperature measurements in the new ignorosphere: the 100–200 km region of the thermosphere. We conclude with observation recommendations and requirements for new comprehensive composition and temperature measurements in the 100–200 km altitude region that would lead to significant advances in thermosphere-ionosphere science, space weather, and space climate.

thermosphere↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Run Time Improvement Efforts for the Roman Space Telescope Thermal Analysis

"Observatory thermal models for large, complex missions, such as the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission, produce an immense amount of data to be processed. Configuration management of the model throughout the project life cycle has mainly focused on which versions of the subsystem models form the current observatory level configuration. However, the results produced by the model are not nearly as well The Roman Space Telescope (RST), formerly known as the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope, is the next great astrophysics observatory mission to follow the James Webb Space Telescope with a planned launch in 2026. As a large scale, flagship mission for NASA with challenging wave front error stability requirements, a single model approach for both thermal discipline analysis and thermo-optical distortion analysis has been used since the early days of the project. In alleviating the need to maintain two separate models for different analysis types, it imposes run time penalties on the thermal analysis with a large model with significant radiation heat exchange. Throughout the lifecycle of the project, the component models have steadily grown in size, resulting in a continuous growth of the overall observatory model with each update and consequently a considerable increase in the model run time. While ongoing efforts to reduce run time are continuously investigated, previous efforts had primarily focused on timestep size and total simulation time to reach quasi-equilibrium. More recently, studies were performed on the total number of radiation couplings (radks) included in the model, which has a nearly linear impact on run time, but increases exponentially with node count. As standard practice for spacecraft analysis, small radks were excluded from the temperature solution based on the assumption that their interchange/view factors have a negligible impact on heat flow. Four approaches were investigated to reduce the model run time while minimizing the impact on accuracy: (1) the Equivalent Radiation Network node, (2) Progressive Radk Inclusion as solution proceeds, (3) Targeted Radk Filtering for critical/non critical areas, and lastly (4) Representation of culled radks with Backloads. Furthermore, the investigation of model run time also revealed that cold cases took noticeably longer to run than hot cases; the root computational inefficiencies were explored along with the computation penalty of linearization of the external radks and recalculation of temperature dependent linear couplings at each timestep. This paper outlines the details of each of the above approaches and their impact on run time and model accuracy.

Thermal Analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Run Time Improvement Efforts for the Roman Space Telescope Thermal Analysis

Observatory thermal models for large, complex missions, such as the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission, produce an immense amount of data to be processed. Configuration management of the model throughout the project life cycle has mainly focused on which versions of the subsystem models form the current observatory level configuration. However, the results produced by the model are not nearly as well The Roman Space Telescope (RST), formerly known as the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope, is the next great astrophysics observatory mission to follow the James Webb Space Telescope with a planned launch in 2026. As a large scale, flagship mission for NASA with challenging wave front error stability requirements, a single model approach for both thermal discipline analysis and thermo-optical distortion analysis has been used since the early days of the project. In alleviating the need to maintain two separate models for different analysis types, it imposes run time penalties on the thermal analysis with a large model with significant radiation heat exchange. Throughout the lifecycle of the project, the component models have steadily grown in size, resulting in a continuous growth of the overall observatory model with each update and consequently a considerable increase in the model run time. While ongoing efforts to reduce run time are continuously investigated, previous efforts had primarily focused on timestep size and total simulation time to reach quasi-equilibrium. More recently, studies were performed on the total number of radiation couplings (radks) included in the model, which has a nearly linear impact on run time, but increases exponentially with node count. As standard practice for spacecraft analysis, small radks were excluded from the temperature solution based on the assumption that their interchange/view factors have a negligible impact on heat flow. Four approaches were investigated to reduce the model run time while minimizing the impact on accuracy: (1) the Equivalent Radiation Network node, (2) Progressive Radk Inclusion as solution proceeds, (3) Targeted Radk Filtering for critical/non critical areas, and lastly (4) Representation of culled radks with Backloads. Furthermore, the investigation of model run time also revealed that cold cases took noticeably longer to run than hot cases; the root computational inefficiencies were explored along with the computation penalty of linearization of the external radks and recalculation of temperature dependent linear couplings at each timestep. This paper outlines the details of each of the above approaches and their impact on run time and model accuracy.

Thermal Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Driving Force Dependent Photoinduced Charge Transfer Dynamics in Polymer-Wrapped Semiconducting Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes

Here, we investigate the thermodynamic driving-force dependences of photoinduced charge separation (CS) and subsequent charge transfer dynamics in single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT)–perylenediimide (PDI) donor–acceptor (D–A) superstructures. Pump–probe spectroscopy reveals that [SWNT (•+)n ]-(PDI –• ) n CS states form on an ∼100 fs time scale following photoexcitation; these dynamics are invariant across an ∼400 mV driving force range, indicating that SWNT hole polaron formation time scales are determined by nanotube lattice and solvent relaxation. These CS states feature SWNT hole polarons adjacent to (geminate) and nearby (nongeminate) PDI radical anions. Analysis of the free energy dependence for charge recombination (CR) of [SWNT •+ ] geminate -(PDI –• ) CS states highlights an ∼2 meV value for D–A electronic coupling (HAB) and ∼0.93 eV for the total reorganization energy (λ T ). A corresponding driving force dependence of the CR dynamics for [SWNT •+ ] nongeminate -(PDI –• ) CS states indicates a diminished H AB value (∼0.6 meV) and a larger λ T (∼1.1 eV), consistent with larger transfer distances. SWNT excitons that persist following photoinduced CS drive photooxidation of PDI –• components of [SWNT (•+)n ]-(PDI –• ) n CS states ( 1 SWNT* + PDI •– → PDI + SWNT •– ); this reaction manifests a significantly reduced λ T value (∼0.67 eV) as the initially prepared SWNT reduced state bears the character of a conduction band injected electron ([SWNT •– ] CB ). This reaction thus gives rise to relaxed, nongeminate SWNT electron and hole polarons on the same nanotube; these polarons react on a 10 2 ps time scale independent of the electronic structure of these SWNT-PDI superstructures.

anions↗
NASA NTRS1983

The inner edge of the plasma sheet and the diffuse aurora

Three dimensional measurements from the ISEE-1 low energy electron spectrometer are used to map the location of the inner edge of the plasma sheet and study the anisotropies in the electron distribution function associated with this boundary. Lower energy plasma sheet electrons have inner edges closer to the Earth than higher energies with the separations at different energies being larger near dawn and after dusk than at midnight. Lowest energy inner edges are frequently located adjacent to the plasmapause in the dawn hemisphere but are often separated from it in the dusk hemisphere by a gap of at least several Re. The energy dispersion is minimal in the afternoon quadrant where the inner edge is near the magnetopause and frequently oscillating on a time scale of minutes. The location of the inner edge is probably determined primarily by the motion of electrons in the existing electric and magnetic fields rather than by strong diffusion as has sometimes been supposed.

Fairfield, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The inner edge of the plasma sheet and the diffuse aurora

Three dimensional measurements from the ISEE-1 low energy electron spectrometer are used to map the location of the inner edge of the plasma sheet and study the anisotropies in the electron distribution function associated with this boundary. Lower energy plasma sheet electrons have inner edges closer to the earth than higher energies with the separations at different energies being larger near dawn and after dusk than at midnight. Lowest energy inner edges are frequently located adjacent to the plasmapause in the dawn hemisphere but are often separated from it in the dusk hemisphere by a gap of at least several Re. The energy dispersion is minimal in the afternoon quadrant where the inner edge is near the magnetopause and frequently oscillating on a time scale of minutes. The location of the inner edge is probably determined primarily by the motion of electrons in the existing electric and magnetic fields rather than by strong diffusion as has sometimes been supposed. Previously announced in STAR as N83-32595

Fairfield, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Impulsive H-alpha diagnostics of electron-beam-heated solar flare model chromospheres

Time-dependent H-alpha profiles were computed for the dynamic model atmospheres of Fisher, Canfield, and McClymont (1985) simulating the effects of an intense impulsively initiated power-law beam of electrons incident on the chromosphere. The temporal response of H-alpha arises from three separate physical mechanisms, whose relative importance varies over the line profile. The fastest variations (typically less than 0.1 s for the explosive heating discussed here) arise from energy imbalance; these are apparent on chromospheric heating and cooling time scales and have their greatest amplitude at line center. Slower variations arise from ionization imbalance and are most apparent in the blue wing. The slowest variations arise from hydrodynamic effects and are related to the formation of a chromospheric condensation; these are most apparent in the red wing. These results provide a basis for the design and analysis of observations of H-alpha, in coordination with hard X-rays or microwaves, to test mechanisms of energy transport in solar flares.

Canfield, Richard C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Solar wind control of the magnetopause shape, location, and motion

A data set of 1821 magnetopause crossings was assembled. Separate fits to subsets of this data set determine the magnetopause location as a function of solar wind dynamic pressure and interplanetary magnetic field orientation. Solar wind dynamic pressure variations produce self-similar magnetopause motion on time scales of one hour or longer. In this paper, the pressure balance relationship between the solar wind dynamic pressure and the location of the subsolar magnetopause are verified. The relationship between the IMF Bz, region 1 Birkeland current strength, the position of the subsolar magnetopause, and the shape of the dayside magnetosphere is quantified. Cross sections of the dayside magnetopause in planes perpendicular to the earth-sun line are oblate.

Sibeck, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) is being readied for a major upgrade to GEOS-S2S Version 3. An important factor in successful extended range forecast is the definition of an ensemble For initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. We plan to run a relatively large ensemble of 40 members for sub-seasonal forecast (up to 3 months), at which point we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of the extensive testing of various ways to generate the perturbations to the initial conditions and the validation of the stratified sampling strategy we chose.To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states separated by 1-10 days, randomly chosen from a corresponding season. We considered perturbing separately only the atmospheric fields or only the ocean or both of the forecast initial conditions. Considering varying separation times between the analysis states, we were able to produce perturbations sampling various modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread.Our ensemble size for sub-seasonal forecasts was determined as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes, NAO, PNA and AO. It is not feasible to run equally large ensemble for seasonal forecasts. Using a stratified sampling procedure we can identify the emerging directions of error growth. By comparing the stratified ensemble with randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we were able to show that the former better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Regional Classification of Time Spectral Amplitudes in Total Electron Content: Southeastern United States During Solar Cycle 24

To investigate the meso-scale structure (100 s of km) of the ionosphere at mid-latitudes, the spectral properties in calculated total electron content (TEC) at a cluster of GPS receivers in and around Florida are analyzed. The ionosphere does not respond exactly the same to periodic solar driving at different locations around the planet, due to the complex electrodynamic interactions of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Therefore, at each GPS receiver in the cluster we compare spatio-temporal variations of the spectral amplitudes for diurnal, solar rotation, and seasonal oscillations. The amplitudes for these dominant oscillations are organized with respect to magnetic latitude of the receiver. A low-latitude and high-latitude station are also included to put the mid-latitude ionospheric response into a global context. The amplitudes of diurnal, seasonal, and solar rotation signals are well ordered by magnetic latitude, superposed with meso-scale deviations between stations separated by ~100s of km. The results suggest that spatio-temporal variations of spectral amplitudes in the mid-latitude ionosphere are not dominated by a single process. This conclusion is based on our finding that at high latitude, the shape of the diurnal signal varies significantly less with solar activity compared to low- and mid-latitudes, and additionally, that the ratio of annual to semi-annual amplitudes fluctuates around 1 with time and from station-to-station only at mid-latitudes.

ionosphere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemo-Mechanically Driven In Situ Hierarchical Structure Formation in Mixed Conductors (Final Technical Report)

This document is the Final Technical Report for the Early Career project DE-SC0018963. Essential materials for energy technologies tend to exhibit “hierarchical” functions – they perform multiple, inter-related tasks at different locations, across disparate length and time scales. To best support this heterogeneous function, there is a fundamental need to understand and direct formation of corresponding tailored hierarchical architectures. In particular, a wide variety of applications, from energy conversion and storage to sensing and gas separation, rely on oxide mixed ionic and electronic conductors (MIECs). These critical ceramic materials catalyze reactions at their surfaces and selectively transport both ionic and electronic species in the bulk. Ideally, MIECs should adopt hierarchical structures with 1) high surface areas, 2) surface compositions exhibiting high catalytic activity, and 3) microstructural connectivity in the direction needed for fast mass and charge transport. In practice, however, MIECs.

08 HYDROGEN↗