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NASA NTRS2020

Simulation of a Representative Future Trajectory-Based Operations Environment

Trajectory-Based Operations in the National Airspace System is a key aspect of advanced air traffic management research. Trajectory-Based Operations focuses on modernizing the current operating paradigm to increase efficiency, predictability, resilience, and flexibility while migrating toward greater operational autonomy across the airspace. Research conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration supports the transition from current airspace operations to Trajectory-Based Operations targeting a 2035-2045 implementation timeframe. Simulation scenarios that demonstrate a representative Trajectory-Based Operations environment in that timeframe, and enable the evaluation of advanced airborne tools such as strategic airborne trajectory management services, are necessary to support this research effort. This report describes characteristics and assumptions made about the future operating environment that were applied to a scenario development methodology to study a representative 2040 Trajectory-Based Operations environment in a simulation use case. This report also includes descriptions of the study design and analysis approach, discussion of the simulation results, and application of these scenarios to future research activities.

Trajectory Based Operations↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Propagation in Pre-Flight Prediction of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Separation Violation

Current forecasts on the future of aeronautics suggest an in- creasing number of unmanned aerial vehicles entering the low- altitude airspace in the next decades (FAA, 2018; Kopardekar et al., 2016). Small vehicles for package delivery as well as larger vehicles for urban air mobility will change the airspace drastically, increasing density of operations both in time, i.e. high number of take-off and landings per unit time, and in space, operating in dense urban environment. This scenario poses challenges to the current approach to air traffic control, and large efforts from academia, industry and regulatory bodies are dedicated to the development of new traffic management strategies that leverage higher computing and simulating capabilities available today. In this paper, we propose a simple look-ahead approach to predict potential minimum separation violations at the strategic level, that is before vehicles start flying, depending on the predefined 4D trajectories and uncertainty affecting the wind acting along those routes. The wind field is extracted from the NOAA North America Mesoscale Forecast System and interpolated using Gaussian process regression, while uncertainty affecting the expected cruise airspeed is propagated through error intervals. The approach allows the prediction of aircraft separation as a function of time, highlighting potential safety violations that would go undetected if uncertainty affecting the expected 4D trajectories is not considered. The paper will also discuss issues related to accuracy and scalability of the approach to multiple vehicle operations.

Trajectory Prediction↗

NASA NTRS2018

Delay Tolerant Network Routing as a Machine Learning Classification Problem

This paper discusses a machine learning-based approach to routing for delay tolerant networks (DTNs) [1]. DTNs are networks which experience frequent disconnections between nodes, uncertainty of an end-to-end path, long one-way trip times, and may have high error rates and asymmetric links. Such networks exist in deep space satellite networks, very rural environments, disaster areas and underwater environments. In this work, we use machine learning classifiers to predict a set of neighboring nodes which are the most likely to deliver a message to a desired location based on message history delivery information.We use the Common Open Research Emulator (CORE) [2] to emulate the DTN environment based on real-world location traces and collect network traffic statistics from the Bundle Protocol implementation IBR-DTN [3]. The software architecture for classification-based routing, analysis and preparation of the network history data and prediction results are discussed.

Delay Tolerant Networks↗

NASA NTRS2017

Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

To address the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) challenge, NASA is developing and demonstrating trajectory-based departure automation under a collaborative effort with the FAA and industry known Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2). ATD-2 builds upon and integrates previous NASA research capabilities that include the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC), and the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) capability. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users of the tools across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. A real time dashboard was developed to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. In addition to shared situational awareness, the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial proposed set of metrics. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017: Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT). The architecture of implementing such a tool as well as potential uses are presented for operations at CLT. Metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of system delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are explored. The potential of the real time tool to inform users of the predictability and efficiency of using a trajectory-based departure scheduling system is also discussed.

integrated arrival departure surface operations↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in, the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers sad and traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control functions. This paper describes a conflict detection, and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm, which is often used for missile guidance during the terminal phase. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection, and the conflict resolution methods.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Initial Noise Assessment of an Embedded-wing-propulsion Concept Vehicle

Vehicle acoustic requirements are considered for a Cruise-Efficient Short Take-Off and Landing (CESTOL) vehicle concept using an Embedded-Wing-Propulsion (EWP) system based on a review of the literature. Successful development of such vehicles would enable more efficient use of existing airports in accommodating the anticipated growth in air traffic while at the same time reducing the noise impact on the community around the airport. A noise prediction capability for CESTOL-EWP aircraft is developed, based largely on NASA's FOOTPR code and other published methods, with new relations for high aspect ratio slot nozzles and wing shielding. The predictive model is applied to a preliminary concept developed by Boeing for NASA GRC. Significant noise reduction for such an aircraft relative to the current state-of-the-art is predicted, and technology issues are identified which should be addressed to assure that the potential of this design concept is fully achieved with minimum technical risk.

Stone, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

prospection↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Exploratory Evaluation of UAS Detect and Avoid Operations in the Terminal Environment

New technical standards for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) detect and avoid (DAA) systems mark recent progress toward realizing the goal of full integration of UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). The DAA system is intended to provide a means of compliance with operating regulations that required pilots on board manned aircraft to remain "well clear" of other aircraft which is accomplished through out-the-window visual acquisition of other aircraft and application of a subjective judgment of safe separation. The requirements for the DAA system, including the specification of a DAA well clear threshold as well as functional requirements for detecting, tracking, alerting and guidance processing, and displays, are specified in DO-365, Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for DAA Systems developed within RTCA (Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics) Special Committee 228 (SC-228). Intended as the first in a series of phased versions, these requirements are frequently referred to as the "Phase 1" DAA system. The Phase 1 DAA system is limited for use by aircraft transitioning to and from Class A or special use airspace, through Class D, E, and G airspace. In particular, the Phase 1 DAA MOPS are not intended for terminal airspace operations, a critical gap for enabling a full range of UAS operations. The application of the Phase 1 DAA system and DAA well clear threshold within the terminal area is predicted to result in a high number of unnecessary alerts when the UAS is safely separated from other traffic. The goal of the present study was to examine pilot performance and operational issues related to the operation of the Phase 1 DAA system in a terminal area. This experiment was intended as an exploratory study that would be used to inform the development of a new terminal area-specific DAA well clear definition, and associated alerting and guidance requirements. The two main objectives of this study were to: 1) characterize pilot behavior in the terminal environment with the Phase 1 DAA system, and 2) investigate the effect of modifications to the Phase 1 DAA alerting and guidance structure. In particular, the authors were interested in determining whether the removal of specific alerting and guidance levels, without changing the DAA well clear definition or alerting thresholds, would impact pilot performance while conducting terminal operations. The results indicate that the Phase 1 well clear definition and alerting and guidance resulted in frequent alerting that degraded pilots' ability to discriminate between encounters where another aircraft was safely separated versus when a maneuver was necessary. The resulting impact on pilot performance was slower response times and higher frequency and severity of losses of DAA well clear compared to those observed for experiments examining pilot performance in the en route environment. There was no significant effect of alerting and guidance display configuration on pilot performance.

terminal area↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Exploratory Evaluation of UAS Detect and Avoid Operations in the Terminal Environment

New technical standards for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) detect and avoid (DAA) systems mark recent progress toward realizing the goal of full integration of UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). The DAA system is intended to provide a means of compliance with operating regulations that required pilots on board manned aircraft to remain "well clear" of other aircraft which is accomplished through out-the-window visual acquisition of other aircraft and application of a subjective judgment of safe separation. The requirements for the DAA system, including the specification of a DAA well clear threshold as well as functional requirements for detecting, tracking, alerting and guidance processing, and displays, are specified in DO-365, Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for DAA Systems developed within RTCA Special Committee 228 (SC-228). Intended as the first in a series of phased versions, these requirements are frequently referred to as the "Phase 1" DAA system. The Phase 1 DAA system is limited for use by aircraft transitioning to and from Class A or special use airspace, through Class D, E, and G airspace. In particular, the Phase 1 DAA MOPS are not intended for terminal airspace operations, a critical gap for enabling a full range of UAS operations. The application of the Phase 1 DAA system and DAA well clear threshold within the terminal area is predicted to result in a high number of unnecessary alerts when the UAS is safely separated from other traffic. The goal of the present study was to examine pilot performance and operational issues related to the operation of the Phase 1 DAA system in a terminal area. This experiment was intended as an exploratory study that would be used to inform the development of a new terminal area-specific DAA well clear definition, and associated alerting and guidance requirements. The two main objectives of this study were to: 1) characterize pilot behavior in the terminal environment with the Phase 1 DAA system, and 2) investigate the effect of modifications to the Phase 1 DAA alerting and guidance structure. In particular, the authors were interested in determining whether the removal of specific alerting and guidance levels, without changing the DAA well clear definition or alerting thresholds, would impact pilot performance while conducting terminal operations. The results indicate that the Phase 1 well clear definition and alerting and guidance resulted in frequent alerting that degraded pilots' ability to discriminate between encounters where another aircraft was safely separated versus when a maneuver was necessary. The resulting impact on pilot performance was slower response times and higher frequency and severity of losses of DAA well clear compared to those observed for experiments examining pilot performance in the en route environment. There was no significant effect of alerting and guidance display configuration on pilot performance.

Rorie, Conrad↗

NASA NTRS2005

Technology-enabled Airborne Spacing and Merging

Over the last several decades, advances in airborne and groundside technologies have allowed the Air Traffic Service Provider (ATSP) to give safer and more efficient service, reduce workload and frequency congestion, and help accommodate a critically escalating traffic volume. These new technologies have included advanced radar displays, and data and communication automation to name a few. In step with such advances, NASA Langley is developing a precision spacing concept designed to increase runway throughput by enabling the flight crews to manage their inter-arrival spacing from TRACON entry to the runway threshold. This concept is being developed as part of NASA s Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) project under the Advanced Air Transportation Technologies Program. Precision spacing is enabled by Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), which provides air-to-air data exchange including position and velocity reports; real-time wind information and other necessary data. On the flight deck, a research prototype system called Airborne Merging and Spacing for Terminal Arrivals (AMSTAR) processes this information and provides speed guidance to the flight crew to achieve the desired inter-arrival spacing. AMSTAR is designed to support current ATC operations, provide operationally acceptable system-wide increases in approach spacing performance and increase runway throughput through system stability, predictability and precision spacing. This paper describes problems and costs associated with an imprecise arrival flow. It also discusses methods by which Air Traffic Controllers achieve and maintain an optimum interarrival interval, and explores means by which AMSTAR can assist in this pursuit. AMSTAR is an extension of NASA s previous work on in-trail spacing that was successfully demonstrated in a flight evaluation at Chicago O Hare International Airport in September 2002. In addition to providing for precision inter-arrival spacing, AMSTAR provides speed guidance for aircraft on converging routes to safely and smoothly merge onto a common approach. Much consideration has been given to working with operational conditions such as imperfect ADS-B data, wind prediction errors, changing winds, differing aircraft types and wake vortex separation requirements. A series of Monte Carlo simulations are planned for the spring and summer of 2004 at NASA Langley to further study the system behavior and performance under more operationally extreme and varying conditions. This will coincide with a human-in-the-loop study to investigate the flight crew interface, workload and acceptability.

Hull, James↗

NASA NTRS2005

Development of the Surface Management System Integrated with CTAS Arrival Tools

The Surface Management System (SMS) developed by NASA Ames Research Center in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is a decision support tool to help tower traffic coordinators and Ground/Local controllers in managing and controlling airport surface traffic in order to increase capacity, efficiency, and flexibility. SMS provides common situation awareness to personnel at various air traffic control facilities such as airport traffic control towers (ATCT s), airline ramp towers, Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON), and Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). SMS also provides a traffic management tool to assist ATCT traffic management coordinators (TMCs) in making decisions such as airport configuration and runway load balancing. The Build 1 of the SMS tool was installed and successfully tested at Memphis International Airport (MEM) and received high acceptance scores from ATCT controllers and coordinators, as well as airline ramp controllers. NASA Ames Research Center continues to develop SMS under NASA s Strategic Airspace Usage (SAU) project in order to improve its prediction accuracy and robustness under various modeling uncertainties. This paper reports the recent development effort performed by the NASA Ames Research Center: 1) integration of Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) capability with SMS and 2) an alternative approach to obtain airline gate information through a publicly available website. The preliminary analysis results performed on the air/surface traffic data at the DFW airport have shown significant improvement in predicting airport arrival demand and IN time at the gate. This paper concludes with recommendations for future research and development.

Jung, Yoon C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Urban Air Mobility: Predictive Modelling on the Behavior of Air-Service Bookings in Metropolitan Areas

The demand for a ride to work without running into the inefficiencies of traffic in a bustling, metropolitan area beckons for a system to tackle on-the ground traffic congestion, thus fueling the need for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). The instant gratification culture, notably its effect on Generation Z, has given way to the nature of impulsive decision making. The 2020 COVID-19 crisis, with its use of tap-to-gratify technology, highlights passengers preferring late booking. This last-minute airport reorganization crisis spearheaded our research goal to create a more user-personalized assessment of cancellation rates. Our research highlights that there will be a market in the 2030s for UAM, short-distance air transportation, and the world must prepare for the challenges that come with this new market. Through a two-part model, we obtained two randomized sets of profiles of user-specific and ridership attributes and their relationship with cancellations. Recommendations for future research include factoring this personalized aspect into cancellation projections to provide reasoned user discounts as well as a remedy for the scheduling chaos that stems from the airport organizational crisis.

Srushti Adesara↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of General Aviation Operations on Airport Performance Through Fast-Time Simulations at Charlotte Douglas International Airport

NASA, in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration and commercial airlines, deployed the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management system at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) in 2017 for field evaluation. The system features new capabilities of data exchange and integration, collaborative surface metering and scheduling, which has demonstrated operational benefits of reducing delay time and fuel consumption. General Aviation flights, however, are not currently included in the surface metering programs because of their different operational procedures and lack of reliable predictability in departure time. Thus, their impact on the system performance is not well understood. This paper presents a study of the impact of General Aviation traffic at CLT using fast-time simulations.

General Aviation↗

NASA NTRS1999

A System for Integrated Reliability and Safety Analyses

We present an integrated reliability and aviation safety analysis tool. The reliability models for selected infrastructure components of the air traffic control system are described. The results of this model are used to evaluate the likelihood of seeing outcomes predicted by simulations with failures injected. We discuss the design of the simulation model, and the user interface to the integrated toolset.

Kostiuk, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Coupled Probabilistic Wake Vortex and Aircraft Response Prediction Model

Wake vortex spacing standards along with weather and runway occupancy time, restrict terminal area throughput and impose major constraints on the overall capacity and efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). For more than two decades, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been conducting research on characterizing wake vortex behavior in order to develop fast-time wake transport and decay prediction models. It is expected that the models can be used in the systems level design of advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts that safely increase the capacity of the NAS. It is also envisioned that at a later stage of maturity, these models could potentially be used operationally, in groundbased spacing and scheduling systems as well as on the flight deck.

Gloudemans, Thijs↗

NASA NTRS2003

Runway Operations Planning: A Two-Stage Solution Methodology

The airport runway is a scarce resource that must be shared by different runway operations (arrivals, departures and runway crossings). Given the possible sequences of runway events, careful Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is required if runway utilization is to be maximized. Thus, Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is a critical component of airport operations planning in general and surface operations planning in particular. From the perspective of departures, ROP solutions are aircraft departure schedules developed by optimally allocating runway time for departures given the time required for arrivals and crossings. In addition to the obvious objective of maximizing throughput, other objectives, such as guaranteeing fairness and minimizing environmental impact, may be incorporated into the ROP solution subject to constraints introduced by Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures. Generating optimal runway operations plans was approached in with a 'one-stage' optimization routine that considered all the desired objectives and constraints, and the characteristics of each aircraft (weight class, destination, Air Traffic Control (ATC) constraints) at the same time. Since, however, at any given point in time, there is less uncertainty in the predicted demand for departure resources in terms of weight class than in terms of specific aircraft, the ROP problem can be parsed into two stages. In the context of the Departure Planner (OP) research project, this paper introduces Runway Operations Planning (ROP) as part of the wider Surface Operations Optimization (SOO) and describes a proposed 'two stage' heuristic algorithm for solving the Runway Operations Planning (ROP) problem. Focus is specifically given on including runway crossings in the planning process of runway operations. In the first stage, sequences of departure class slots and runwy crossings slots are generated and ranked based on departure runway throughput under stochastic conditions. In the second stage, the departure class slots are populated with specific flights from the pool of available aircraft, by solving an integer program. Preliminary results from the algorithm implementation on real-world traffic data are included.

Anagnostakis, Ioannis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Recorded Airspace Traffic Data to Create Simulation Scenarios for Trajectory-Based Operations

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is supporting research to transition from the current air traffic management paradigm to Trajectory-Based Operations targeting the 2035-2045 timeframe. Trajectory-Based Operations in the National Airspace System focuses on modernizing current operations and technology to increase efficiency, predictability, resilience, and flexibility while migrating toward greater operational autonomy across the airspace. To understand the impact of new technologies and procedures that enable Trajectory-Based Operations, simulation studies must be conducted using realistic scenarios. This paper describes techniques that can be employed when using recorded airspace traffic data to create scenarios representative of a 2040 Trajectory-Based Operations airspace. The paper provides a use case example and suggests how this methodology may be applied to other simulations studying concepts, technologies, and procedures in a future airspace system.

Billy K. Buck↗

NASA NTRS2015

Identifying Key Issues and Potential Solutions for Integrated Arrival, Departure, Surface Operations by Surveying Stakeholder Preferences

NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) collaborates with the FAA and industry to provide concepts and technologies that enhance the transition to the next-generation air-traffic management system (NextGen). To facilitate this collaboration, ARMD has a series of Airspace Technology Demonstration (ATD) sub-projects that develop, demonstrate, and transitions NASA technologies and concepts for implementation in the National Airspace System (NAS). The second of these sub-projects, ATD-2, is focused on the potential benefits to NAS stakeholders of integrated arrival, departure, surface (IADS) operations. To determine the project objectives and assess the benefits of a potential solution, NASA surveyed NAS stakeholders to understand the existing issues in arrival, departure, and surface operations, and the perceived benefits of better integrating these operations. NASA surveyed a broad cross-section of stakeholders representing the airlines, airports, air-navigation service providers, and industry providers of NAS tools. The survey indicated that improving the predictability of flight times (schedules) could improve efficiency in arrival, departure, and surface operations. Stakeholders also mentioned the need for better strategic and tactical information on traffic constraints as well as better information sharing and a coupled collaborative planning process that allows stakeholders to coordinate IADS operations. To assess the impact of a potential solution, NASA sketched an initial departure scheduling concept and assessed its viability by surveying a select group of stakeholders for a second time. The objective of the departure scheduler was to enable flights to move continuously from gate to cruise with minimal interruption in a busy metroplex airspace environment using strategic and tactical scheduling enhanced by collaborative planning between airlines and service providers. The stakeholders agreed that this departure concept could improve schedule predictability and suggested several key attributes that were necessary to make the concept successful. The goals and objectives of the planned ATD-2 sub-project will incorporate the results of this stakeholder feedback.

integrated arrival/departure/surface operations↗