Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

LMC clusters - Age calibration and age distribution revisited

The empirical age relation for star clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud presented by Elson and Fall (1985) are reexamined using ages based only on main-sequence turnoffs. The present sample includes 57 clusters, 24 of which have color-magnitude diagrams published since 1985. The new calibration is very similar to that found previously, and the scatter in the relation corresponds to uncertainties of about a factor of 2 in age. The age distribution derived from the new calibration does not differ significantly from that derived in earlier work. It is compared with age distributions estimated by other authors for different samples of clusters, and the results are discussed.

Elson, Rebecca A.↗

Towards a Global Aerosol Climatology: Preliminary Trends in Tropospheric Aerosol Amounts and Corresponding Impact on Radiative Forcing between 1950 and 1990

A global aerosol climatology is needed in the study of decadal temperature change due to natural and anthropogenic forcing of global climate change. A preliminary aerosol climatology has been developed from global transport models for a mixture of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel burning, including also contributions from other major aerosol types such as soil dust and sea salt. The aerosol distributions change for the period of 1950 to 1990 due to changes in emissions of SO2 and carbon particles from fossil fuel burning. The optical thickness of fossil fuel derived aerosols increased by nearly a factor of 3 during this period, with particularly strong increase in eastern Asia over the whole time period. In countries where environmental laws came into effect since the early 1980s (e.g. US and western Europe), emissions and consequently aerosol optical thicknesses did not increase considerably after 1980, resulting in a shift in the global distribution pattern over this period. In addition to the optical thickness, aerosol single scattering albedos may have changed during this period due to different trends in absorbing black carbon and reflecting sulfate aerosols. However, due to the uncertainties in the emission trends, this change cannot be determined with any confidence. Radiative forcing of this aerosol distribution is calculated for several scenarios, resulting in a wide range of uncertainties for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcings. Uncertainties in the contribution of the strongly absorbing black carbon aerosol leads to a range in TOA forcings of ca. -0.5 to + 0.1 Wm (exp. -2), while the change in aerosol distributions between 1950 to 1990 leads to a change of -0.1 to -0.3 Wm (exp. -2), for fossil fuel derived aerosol with a "moderate" contribution of black carbon aerosol.

Tegen, Ina↗

The accuracy of far-field noise obtained by the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data

Results are described of an analytical study of the accuracy and limitations of a technique that permits the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data to far-field conditions. The effects of the following variables on predictive accuracy of the far-field pressure were examined: (1) number of near-field microphones; (2) length of source distribution; (3) complexity of near-field and far-field distributions; (4) source-to-microphone distance; and (5) uncertainties in microphone data and imprecision in the location of the near-field microphones. It is shown that the most important parameters describing predictive accuracy are the number of microphones, the ratio of source length to acoustic wavelength, (L/wavelength), and the error in location of near-field microphones. If microphone measurement and location errors are not included, then far-field pressures can be accurately predicted up to L/wavelength values of 15 using approximately 50 microphones. For maximum microphone location errors of + or - 1 cm, only an accuracy of + or - 2-1/2 db can be attained with approximately 40 microphones for the highest L/wavelength of 10.

Ahtye, W. F.↗

The accuracy of far-field noise obtained by the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data

Results are presented for an analytical study of the accuracy and limitations of a technique that permits the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data to far-field conditions. The effects of the following variables on predictive accuracy of the far-field pressure were examined: (1) number of near-field microphones; (2) length of source distribution; (3) complexity of near-field and far-field distributions; (4) source-to-microphone distance; and (5) uncertainties in microphone data and imprecision in the location of the near-field microphones. It is shown that the most important parameters describing predictive accuracy are the number of microphones, the ratio of source length to acoustic wavelength (L/lambda), and the error in location of near-field microphones. For maximum microphone location errors of plus or minus 1 cm, only an accuracy of plus or minus 2.5 dB can be attained with approximately 40 microphones for the highest L/lambda of 10.

Ahtye, W. F.↗

CO2 on Titan

A sharp stratospheric emission feature at 667/cm in the Voyager infrared spectra of Titan is associated with the nu2 Q branch of CO2. A coupling of photochemical and radiative-transfer theory yields an average mole fraction above the 110 mbar level of (1.5 + 1.5 or - 0.8) x 10 to the -9th, with most of the uncertainty being due to imprecise knowledge of the vertical distribution. CO2 is found to be in a steady state, with its abundance being regulated principally by the 72 K cold trap near the tropopause and secondarily by the rate at which water-bearing meteoritic material enters the top of the atmosphere. An influx of water about 0.4 times that at the top of the terrestrial atmosphere is consistent with a combination of the observed CO2 abundance and a steady-state CO mole fraction of 0.00011; the thoeretical value for CO is close to the value observed by Lutz et al. (1983), although there are large margins for error in both numbers. If steady-state conditions for CO prevail, little information is available regarding the evolution of Titan's atmosphere.

Samuelson, R. E.↗

Implications of the stratospheric water vapor distribution as determined from the Nimbus 7 LIMS experiment

The LIMS experiment on Nimbus 7 has provided new results on the stratospheric water vapor distribution. The data show (1) a latitudinal gradient with mixing ratios that increase by a factor of 2 from equator to + or - 60 degrees at 50 mb, (2) most of the time there is a fairly uniform mixing ratio of 5 ppmv at high latitudes, but more variation exists during winter, (3) a well-developed hygropause at low to midlatitudes of the lower stratosphere, (4) a source region of water vapor in the upper stratospehere to lower mesosphere that is consistent with methane oxidation chemistry, at least within the uncertainties of the data, (5) an apparent zonal mean H2O distribution that is consistent with the circulation proposed by Brewer in 1949, and (6) a zonal mean distribution in the lower stratosphere that is consistent with the idea of quasi-isentropic transport by eddies in the meridional direction. Limits to the use of the data in the refinement of our understanding of the stratospheric water vapor budget are noted.

Remsberg, E. E.↗

Effect of Cyclic Thermo-Mechanical Loads on Fatigue Reliability in Polymer Matrix Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistic fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress dependent multi-factor interaction relationship developed at NASA Lewis Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability- based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/- 45/90)(sub s) graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical cyclic loads and low thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical cyclic loads and high thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Shah, A. R.↗

Probabilistic Simulation of Combined Thermo-Mechanical Cyclic Fatigue in Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistically-combined thermo-mechanical fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and is demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long-term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress-dependent multifactor-interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability-integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/-45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical-cyclic loads and low thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical-cyclic loads and high thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Probabilistic Simulation for Combined Cycle Fatigue in Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistic fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress dependent multifactor interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/- 45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical cyclic loads and low thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical cyclic loads and high thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Automated Planning and Scheduling for Space Mission Operations

Research Trends: a) Finite-capacity scheduling under more complex constraints and increased problem dimensionality (subcontracting, overtime, lot splitting, inventory, etc.) b) Integrated planning and scheduling. c) Mixed-initiative frameworks. d) Management of uncertainty (proactive and reactive). e) Autonomous agent architectures and distributed production management. e) Integration of machine learning capabilities. f) Wider scope of applications: 1) analysis of supplier/buyer protocols & tradeoffs; 2) integration of strategic & tactical decision-making; and 3) enterprise integration.

scheduling↗

JSC Safety and Mission Assurance Data Analysis Overview

These slides describe the data analysis methods that are used to determine inputs for probabilistic risk models supporting the Space Shuttle Program. Other applications can follow a similar path probably using different data sources. Statistical approaches are different and not addressed here. Topics included here: 1) Prior Distribution; 2) Likelihood Data; 3) Bayesian Updating; and 4) Uncertainty and Error. Note: This is a high-level discussion and is not intended to be a tutorial.

Roelant, Henk↗

Probabilistic Simulation of Combined Thermo-Mechanical Cyclic Fatigue in Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistically-combined thermo-mechanical fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and is demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long-term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress-dependent multifactor-interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability-integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/-45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical-cyclic loads and low thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical-cyclic loads and high thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Directional Reflectance Studies in Support of the Radiometric Calibration Test Site (RadCaTS) at Railroad Valley

The Radiometric Calibration Test Site (RadCaTS) is a suite of commercial and custom instruments used to make measurements of the surface reflectance and atmosphere throughout the day at Railroad Valley, Nevada. It was developed in response to the need for daily radiometric calibration data for the vast array of Earth-observing sensors on orbit, which is continuously increasing as more nations and private companies launch individual environmental satellites as well as large constellations. The current suite of instruments at RadCaTS includes five ground-viewing radiometers (GVRs), four of which view the surface in a nadir-viewing configuration. Many sensors such as those on Landsat-7 and Landsat-8 view Railroad Valley within 3° of nadir, while others such as those on Sentinel-2A and -2B, RapidEye, Aqua, Suomi NPP, and Terra can view Railroad Valley at off-nadir angles. Past efforts have shown that the surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) has minimal impact on vicarious calibration uncertainties for views <10°, but the desire to use larger view angles has prompted the effort to develop a BRDF correction for data from RadCaTS. The current work investigates the application of Railroad Valley BRDF data derived from a BRF camera developed at the University of Arizona in the 1990s (but is no longer in use) to the current RadCaTS surface reflectance measurements. Also investigated are early results from directional reflectance studies using a mobile spectro-goniometer system during a round-robin field campaign in 2018. This work describes the preliminary results, the effects on current measurements, and the approach for future measurements.

RadCalNet↗

OMI Measurements of Bromine Monoxide and Implications for Missing Sources of Polar Bromine in GEOS-Chem

The OMI satellite instrument provides total column measurements of bromine monoxide (BrO) with daily global coverage. Reactive bromine compounds (Br and BrO) catalytically destroy ozone in both the stratosphere and troposphere. The current emission scheme of brominated source gases in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model well represents the stratospheric burden of bromine. However, halogen research in GEOS-Chem has largely focused on the influence of halogens on the tropospheric oxidative capacity. In the troposphere, the distribution of brominated compounds is more variable and significant uncertainties remain in the chemical processes governing the sources and sinks of reactive bromine compounds. In this study, we use GEOS-Chem simulated stratospheric columns of BrO to separate the tropospheric signal of BrO from the OMI total column measurements. The resulting tropospheric BrO columns are used to identify seasonal and regional anomalies in tropospheric BrO not currently represented in GEOS-Chem. In particular, periods of elevated tropospheric BrO during polar spring are observable by OMI, and past studies have connected these so-called "bromine explosion" events to near complete removal of surface ozone. Due to significant uncertainties in the springtime polar source of reactive bromine, many global models, including GEOS-Chem, do not simulate these tropospheric ozone depletion events. Consequently, OMI-based tropospheric columns of BrO are useful tool for investigating the impact of bromine explosion events on tropospheric ozone depletion episodes as well as background air quality.

Wales, Pamela↗

SWIRP (Submm-Wave and Long Wave InfraRed Polarimeter); Development and Characterization of a Sub-Mm Polarimeter for Ice Cloud Investigations

A major source of uncertainty in climate models is the presence, shape and distribution of ice particles in the uppermost layers of the clouds. The effects of this component are poorly constrained, turning ice particles into an almost-free variable in many climate models.NASA-GSFC is developing a new instrument aimed at measuring the size and shape of ice particles. The instrument consists of two sub-mm polarimeters (at 220 and 670 GHz) coupled with a long-wave infrared polarimeter at 10 micron. Each polarimeter has identical V-pol and H-pol channels; the axes of polarization are defined geometrically by the orientation of the waveguide elements, and the purity has been measured in the lab. The instrument is configured as a conical scanner, suitable for deployment as a payload on a small satellite or on a high-altitude sub-orbital platform. From a 400 km orbit, the instrument has a 3dB spatial resolution of 20 (10) km at 220 (670) GHz and a swath of 600 km over 180 degrees of view.The BAPTA (Bearing And Power Transfer Assembly) carries heritage from the SSMIS design, now in its 22nd year of on-orbit operation, but with a much reduced SWaP (Size Weight and Power) footprint, suitable for a small satellite.The main components of the instrument have been fabricated and are undergoing final testing prior to their integration as a single unit. The sub-mm channels have dedicated secondary reflectors which illuminate a shared primary reflector. The receiving units are placed behind the focal point of the optical arrangement, so that all beams equally illuminate the primary reflector and are almost co-located on the ground (within a single 220 GHz footprint). Primary and secondary beam patterns have been measured and verified to match the as-designed expectations. A Zytex (TM) window is deployed to protect the secondary reflectors and the feed horns from debris and other contaminants, and to reduce the heat load from the active (hot) IR calibration unit. The insertion loss of Zytex has been measured and is accounted in the calibration equation of the sub-mm channels.The radiometric performance of the sub-mm receivers has been characterized in the lab and under operational conditions of temperature and pressure.This paper discusses the design constraints on the sub-mm components, details of the scientific goals and their flowdown, and describes the characterization of the polarimeters. Options to optimize the layout and distribution of the masses within the assembly, with the goal of making the instrument even more compact and fully-compatible with cubesat-class satellites will be presented.

De Amici, G.↗

Deciphering the Spectra of Flowers to Map Landscape-scale Blooming Dynamics

Like leaves, floral coloration is driven by inherent optical properties, which are determined by pigments, scattering structure, and thickness. However, establishing the relative contribution of these factors to canopy spectral signals is usually limited to in-situ observations. Modeling flowering dynamics (e.g., blooming duration, spatial distribution) at the landscape scale may reveal insights into ecological processes and phenological adaptations to environmental changes. Multitemporal visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectroscopy observations are especially suited for such efforts. Reflectance in this spectral range is sensitive to major flower pigments, flowering phenology traces, and biophysical differences between flowers and other plant parts. We explored how flowers contribute to spectral signals using a time series of imagery from the Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer - Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) collected as part of the SBG High-Frequency Time Series (SHIFT) campaign as a case study. Airborne data were collected weekly during the spring of 2022 across two natural reserves in California. Field spectra were gathered from blooming plots at leaf, flower, and canopy levels at two time points during the campaign. The processed data was used to investigate flowering species' spectro-temporal variation and spatial distribution using Spectral Mixture Residual, Gaussian clustering techniques, and a proposed narrow-band flowering index. Linear spectral unmixing allowed the computation of the weighted contribution of four major high-variance endmembers (leaves, flowers, soil, dark) and low-variance residual signal that comprises subtle spectral features used to track biophysical processes. The reflectance residual was projected on a low principal component basis to characterize flowering clusters' variation and spatial distribution based on the Gaussian mixture model, providing an uncertainty metric to assess the results. Mapping flowering events from modeling spectro-temporal dynamics throughout the season, from pre-blooming to post-flowering stages, allowed us to identify gradient variations in spectral features within the VSWIR spectral range linked to flowering pigments. Time series of the Mixture Residual Blooming Index and the Red-Edge Normalized Difference Vegetation Index revealed specific flowering and greenness phenophases across the two main species (Coreopsis gigantea, Artemisia californica) in the flowering areas. Overall, our approach opens opportunities for future satellite monitoring of floral cycles at broader scales.

Yoseline Angel↗

Numerical Simulations of the XR-5 Hall Thruster for Life Assessment at Different Operating Conditions

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been investigating the applicability of Aerojet Rocketdyne's XR-5 thruster, a 4.5 kW class Hall thruster, for deep-space missions. Major considerations for qualifying the XR-5 for deep-space missions are demonstration of a wide throttling envelope and a usable life capability in excess of 10,000 h. Numerical simulations with the 2-D axisymmetric code Hall2De are employed to inform the qualification process by assessing erosion rates at the thruster surfaces in a wide range of throttling conditions without the need for conducting costly endurance testing. In previous work at JPL by Jorns et al., the anomalous collision frequency distribution for 11 different throttling conditions of the XR-5 spanning 0.3-4.5 kW were identified based on probe measurements of the electron temperature in the near plume region. In this paper, we provide estimates for the erosion rates at the channel walls and pole covers for the same 11 conditions. Uncertainties in the plasma measurements and in the anomalous collision frequency distribution are addressed by determining upper and lower bounds of the erosion rates. Results suggest that erosion of the walls only occurs in the last 5% of the acceleration channel and the rate of such erosion decreases as the geometry of the thruster changes in time due to magnetic shielding. A quasi-zero-erosion state is eventually achieved in all the examined throttling conditions. Examination of the results for pole surface erosion and estimated cathode life indicates that the XR-5 propellant throughput capability will exceed 700 kg, which provides 50% margin over the usable throughput capability of 466 kg as already demonstrated in wear testing.

Lopez Ortega, Alejandro↗

Automated quantification of mitral valve regurgitation based on normalized centerline velocity distribution

Previous echocardiographic techniques for quantifying valvular regurgitation are limited by factors including uncertainties for orifice location and a hemispheric convergence assumption that often results in over- and underestimation of flow rate and regurgitant orifice area. Using computational fluid dynamics simulations, these factors were eliminated, allowing a more accurate assessment of regurgitation. A model was developed to allow automated quantification of regurgitant orifice diameter based on the centerline velocity data available from color M-mode echocardiography. The model, validated using in vitro unsteady flow data, demonstrated improved accuracy for orifice diameter (y=0.95x + 0.38, r=0.96) and volume (y=1.18x - 4.72, r=0.93).

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗