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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Variability in the high energy gamma ray emission from Cyg X-3 over a two-year period (1983 - 1984) at E 4 x 10(11) eV

Cygnus X-3 is observed to emit gamma rays with energies in excess of 4 x 10 to the 11th power eV during two out of 9 observational categories over an 18 month time span. The emissions are observed at the 0.6 phase of the characteristic 4.8 hr light curve for this binary system. We estimate a peak flux at phase 0.6 of 5 x 10 to the minus 10th power photons cm-2s-1 at a software threshold of 8 x 10 to the 11th power eV for Oct/Nov 1983. A flux for the June 84 effect cannot be reliably calculated at present due to lack of Monte Carlo simulations for the energy range and spectral region. For the other 7 observational categories the observations are consistent with zero source emission. The light curve would appear to be variable on a time scale of a couple of weeks at these categories. Selection of compact images in accordance with Monte Carlo simulations combined with empirical optimization techniques have led to an enriched gamma ray light curve for the Oct/Nov 1983 data. Selection on the basis of shower orientation, however, has not led to any notable enhancement of the gamma ray content. Individual Cherenko images can be reliably sorted on an event by event basis into either proton-induced or photon-induced showers.

Cawley, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Knowledge spillovers between PV installers can reduce the cost of installing solar PV

We analyze pricing in PV systems using data from 2008-2014 to identify the effects of knowledge spillovers in reducing the installed cost of PV. This paper estimates the size of the effects of learning by doing and knowledge spillovers using multiple formulations of spillover related variables. We found knowledge spillovers between firms within a county to be a significant and substantial factor in reducing the costs of PV. However, these spillovers reduce costs only for firms over a certain size threshold, and no cost-reducing spillovers were found for smaller installers. Geographic spillovers, within a firm from one county to another were also significant although not as large as the local between-firm effects. We ran 43 specifications on the data and generally found these main results to be robust, although not in every specification. One implication of these results is that policies that subsidize demand for PV are leading to the creation of new knowledge that would not exist at lower levels of demand. Furthermore, that the spillovers become stronger at higher levels of experience suggests that these subsidies would need to be substantial, particularly in new markets with many small firms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shock wave formation in radiative plasmas

The temporal evolution of weak shocks in radiative media is theoretically investigated in this work. The structure of radiative shocks has traditionally been studied in a stationary framework. Their systematic classification is complex because layers of optically thick and thin regions alternate to form a radiatively-driven precursor and a temperature-relaxation layer, between which the hydrodynamic shock is embedded. In this work, we analyze the formation of weak shocks when two radiative plasmas with different pressures are put in contact. Applying a reductive perturbative method yields a Burgers-type equation that governs the temporal evolution of the perturbed variables including the radiation field. The conditions upon which optically thick and thin solutions exist have been derived and expressed as a function of the shock strength and Boltzmann number. Below a certain Boltzmann number threshold, weak shocks always become optically thick asymptotically in time, while thin solutions appear as transitory structures. The existence of an optically thin regime is related to the presence of an overdense layer in the compressed material. Scaling laws for the characteristic formation time and shock width are provided for each regime. The theoretical analysis is supported by FLASH simulations, and a comprehensive testcase has been designed to benchmark radiative hydrodynamic codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-based Induced Earthquake Forecasting: Process Understanding, and Hazards Mitigation

Disposal of saltwater co-produced with oil and gas is linked to elevated seismicity in the Central and Midwest US. There is a concern that these events may lead to widespread damage and an overall increase in seismicity. Thus an improved understanding of the spatially and temporally variable deformation and stress field associated with fluid injection operation is critically necessary for evaluating time-varying seismic hazards. Despite the improvements in seismic monitoring capacity and the resulting decrease in the magnitude detection threshold, estimates of induced earthquake probability remain elusive due to insufficient models incapable of accounting for the complex physics governing the process of induced seismicity. The proposed research effort will comprehensively analyze, integrate, and interpret geodetic, injection, and seismic data in the vicinity of the injection sites in Oklahoma to resolve the 4-dimensional distribution of pore pressure and stress in the shallow crust. This project, in particular, is focused on exploring the statistical relation between injection operation and increased earthquake hazard. The amplitude of and the extent to which pore pressure changes are determined by some factors, in particular, the hydrogeological properties of the rocks, such as diffusivity. Thus the available deformation data will be used to constrain hydrogeological properties of the medium, to accurately resolve the evolution of crustal stresses due to fluid injection. Having the time-varying models of stress changes, a statistical framework will be implemented to estimate the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes on the nearby fault systems. These data and models help to improve seismic hazard estimates and aid in constructing operational-induced earthquake forecast models. This information can also be integrated into the updated U.S. National Seismic Hazard Map, which local communities and authorities use in their earthquake risk estimates and mitigation efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Microstructure Variability in Vapor-Deposited Energetic Materials by Using Phase-Field Methods

Critical components, such as detonators, in Sandia's stockpile contain heterogeneous materials whose performance and reliability depend on accurate, predictive models of coupled, complex phenomena to predict their synthesis, processing, and operation. Ongoing research in energetic materials has shown that microstructural properties, such as density, pore-size, morphology, and specific surface area are correlated to their initiation threshold and detonation behavior. However, experiments to study these specific characteristics of energetic materials are challenging and time consuming. Therefore, in this work, we turn to mesoscale modeling methods that may be capable of reproducing some observed phenomena to refine and predict outcomes beforehand. Even so, we have no physics-based modeling capability to predict how the microstructure of an energetic material will evolve over near- and long-term time scales. Thus, the goal of this work is to (i) identify any knowledge gaps in how the underlying microstructure forms and evolves during the synthesis process, and (ii) develop and test a mesoscale phase-field model for vapor deposition to capture critical mechanisms of microstructure formation, evolution, and variability in vapor-deposited energetic materials, such as processing conditions, material properties, and substrate interactions. Based on this work, the phase-field method is shown to be a valuable tool for developing the necessary models containing coupled, complex phenomena to investigate and understand the synthesis and processing of energetic materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Defining Change Thresholds: What Change Is Outside Typical Sources of Variation?

Researchers often have a difficult time defining meaningful thresholds for change. We sometimes identify subtle changes but what amount of change is beyond typical sources of variation? This is especially complicated when trying to understand new disease pathogenesis like the constellation of eye changes leading to Spaceflight-associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS). To support decision makers in defining minimal meaningful change, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate innate sources of variability such as natural day to day variation. Healthy subjects were recruited and imaged with MRI, OCT, and US on separate days and measured by several technicians. Models were developed specifying random effects for the sources of variation – between left and right eyes, within-individuals over time, between raters, and finally between individuals. This allowed us to find the posterior distribution for the total typical variation, within an eye, which we use to define a threshold where change beyond typical sources of variation is likely. This threshold is now used as our earliest indicator of systematic increase in Total Retinal Thickness (a precursor to optic disc edema).

Millennia Young↗
NASA NTRS2001

Improvements in AVHRR Daytime Cloud Detection Over the ARM NSA Site

Clouds play an important role in the radiation budget over Arctic and Antarctic. Because of limited surface observing capabilities, it is necessary to detect clouds over large areas using satellite imagery. At low and mid-latitudes, satellite-observed visible (VIS; 0.65 micrometers) and infrared (IR; 11 micrometers) radiance data are used to derive cloud fraction, temperature, and optical depth. However, the extreme variability in the VIS surface albedo makes the detection of clouds from satellite a difficult process in polar regions. The IR data often show that the surface is nearly the same temperature or even colder than clouds, further complicating cloud detection. Also, the boundary layer can have large areas of haze, thin fog, or diamond dust that are not seen in standard satellite imagery. Other spectral radiances measured by satellite imagers provide additional information that can be used to more accurately discriminate clouds from snow and ice. Most techniques currently use a fixed reflectance or temperature threshold to decide between clouds and clear snow. Using a subjective approach, Minnis et al. (2001) found that the clear snow radiance signatures vary as a function of viewing and illumination conditions as well as snow condition. To routinely process satellite imagery over polar regions with an automated algorithm, it is necessary to account for this angular variability and the change in the background reflectance as snow melts, vegetation grows over land, and melt ponds form on pack ice. This paper documents the initial satellite-based cloud product over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site at Barrow for use by the modeling community. Cloud amount and height are determined subjectively using an adaptation of the methodology of Minnis et al. (2001) and the radiation fields arc determined following the methods of Doelling et al. (2001) as applied to data taken during the Surface Heat and Energy Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA). The procedures and data produced in this empirically based analysis will also facilitate the development of the automated algorithm for future processing of satellite data over the ARM NSA domain. Results are presented for May, June, and July 1998. ARM surface data are use to partially validate the results taken directly over the ARM site.

Chakrapani, V.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Investigating the Response of Loop Plasma to Nanoflare Heating Using RADYN Simulations

We present the results of 1D hydrodynamic simulations of coronal loops that are subject to nanoflares, caused by either in situ thermal heating or nonthermal electron (NTE) beams. The synthesized intensity and Doppler shifts can be directly compared with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) observations of rapid variability in the transition region (TR) of coronal loops, associated with transient coronal heating. We find that NTEs with high enough low-energy cutoff (EC) deposit energy in the lower TR and chromosphere, causing blueshifts (up to approximately 20 kilometers per second) in the IRIS Si IV lines, which thermal conduction cannot reproduce. The EC threshold value for the blueshifts depends on the total energy of the events (approximately 5 kiloelectronvolts for 1024 ergs, up to 15 kiloelectronvolts for 1025 ergs). The observed footpoint emission intensity and flows, combined with the simulations, can provide constraints on both the energy of the heating event and EC. The response of the loop plasma to nanoflares depends crucially on the electron density: significant Si IV intensity enhancements and flows are observed only for initially low-density loops (less than 10 (sup 9) per cubic centimeter). This provides a possible explanation of the relative scarcity of observations of significant moss variability. While the TR response to single heating episodes can be clearly observed, the predicted coronal emission (AIA 94 Angstroms) for single strands is below current detectability and can only be observed when several strands are heated closely in time. Finally, we show that the analysis of the IRIS Mg II chromospheric lines can help further constrain the properties of the heating mechanisms.

Sun: Corona↗
DOE OSTI2020

A systematic strategy for estimating hERG block potency and its implications in a new cardiac safety paradigm

Introduction: hERG block potency is widely used to calculate a drug's safety margin against its torsadogenic potential. Previous studies are confounded by use of different patch clamp electrophysiology protocols and a lack of statistical quantification of experimental variability. Since the new cardiac safety paradigm being discussed by the International Council for Harmonisation promotes a tighter integration of nonclinical and clinical data for torsadogenic risk assessment, a more systematic approach to estimate the hERG block potency and safety margin is needed. Methods: A cross-industry study was performed to collect hERG data on 28 drugs with known torsadogenic risk using a standardized experimental protocol. A Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) approach was used to assess the hERG block potency of these drugs by quantifying both the inter-site and intra-site variability. A modeling and simulation study was also done to evaluate protocol-dependent changes in hERG potency estimates. Results: A systematic approach to estimate hERG block potency is established. The impact of choosing a safety margin threshold on torsadogenic risk evaluation is explored based on the posterior distributions of hERG potency estimated by this method. The modeling and simulation results suggest any potency estimate is specific to the protocol used. Discussion: This methodology can estimate hERG block potency specific to a given voltage protocol. The relationship between safety margin thresholds and torsadogenic risk predictivity suggests the threshold should be tailored to each specific context of use, and safety margin evaluation may need to be integrated with other information to form a more comprehensive risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Stochastic Formal Correctness of Numerical Algorithms

We provide a framework to bound the probability that accumulated errors were never above a given threshold on numerical algorithms. Such algorithms are used for example in aircraft and nuclear power plants. This report contains simple formulas based on Levy's and Markov's inequalities and it presents a formal theory of random variables with a special focus on producing concrete results. We selected four very common applications that fit in our framework and cover the common practices of systems that evolve for a long time. We compute the number of bits that remain continuously significant in the first two applications with a probability of failure around one out of a billion, where worst case analysis considers that no significant bit remains. We are using PVS as such formal tools force explicit statement of all hypotheses and prevent incorrect uses of theorems.

Daumas, Marc↗
NASA NTRS2014

Initial Stability Assessment of S-NPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Band Calibration Using Invariant Desert and Deep Convective Cloud Targets

The latest CERES FM-5 instrument launched onboard the S-NPP spacecraft will use the VIIRS visible radiances from the NASA Land Product Evaluation and Analysis Tool Elements (PEATE) product for retrieving the cloud properties associated with its TOA flux measurement. In order for CERES to provide climate quality TOA flux datasets, the retrieved cloud properties must be consistent throughout the record, which is dependent on the calibration stability of the VIIRS imager. This paper assesses the NASA calibration stability of the VIIRS reflective solar bands using the Libya-4 desert and deep convective clouds (DCC). The invariant targets are first evaluated for temporal natural variability. It is found for visible (VIS) bands that DCC targets have half of the variability of Libya-4. For the shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands, the desert has less variability. The brief VIIRS record and target variability inhibits high confidence in identifying any trends that are less than 0.6yr for most VIS bands, and 2.5yr for SWIR bands. None of the observed invariant target reflective solar band trends exceeded these trend thresholds. Initial assessment results show that the VIIRS data have been consistently calibrated and that the VIIRS instrument stability is similar to or better than the MODIS instrument.

VIIRS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prospects for Astrobiology and Technosignature Searches with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will map sources in multiband colour--variability space. We present a prototype coherence-based framework for astrobiology and technosignature searches, in which candidates are treated as structured departures from natural astrophysical manifolds rather than isolated photometric outliers. We illustrate the framework with three simulated cases: five Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) surface/activity states, a grid of 649 synthetic exoplanet spectra with vegetation-red-edge-like (VRE) perturbations, and 500 synthetic multiband light curves, each projected into LSST-like observable space and analysed through colour geometry, chromatic variability, and cross-band coherence. Key results include a full-colour Mahalanobis distance $D\approx5.1$ for the weak-coma KBO state (${\sim}5σ$ in the five-dimensional colour vector), an indicative VRE coherence threshold at $f_{\rm crit}\approx0.13$, and an idealised stacking forecast reaching $5σ$ under optimistic assumptions. We show, using a small Gaia~DR3 stellar sample, that stellar colour and photometric stability may inform the prioritisation of Galactic regions for applying such coherence diagnostics.

Kovačević, Andjelka B. [Belgrade U.] (ORCID:000000↗
NASA NTRS2002

Stimulus and recording variables and their effects on mammalian vestibular evoked potentials

Linear vestibular evoked potentials (VsEPs) measure the collective neural activity of the gravity receptor organs in the inner ear that respond to linear acceleration transients. The present study examined the effects of electrode placement, analog filtering, stimulus polarity and stimulus rate on linear VsEP thresholds, latencies and amplitudes recorded from mice. Two electrode-recording montages were evaluated, rostral (forebrain) to 'mastoid' and caudal (cerebellum) to 'mastoid'. VsEP thresholds and peak latencies were identical between the two recording sites; however, peak amplitudes were larger for the caudal recording montage. VsEPs were also affected by filtering. Results suggest optimum high pass filter cutoff at 100-300 Hz, and low pass filter cutoff at 10,000 Hz. To evaluate stimulus rate, linear jerk pulses were presented at 9.2, 16, 25, 40 and 80 Hz. At 80 Hz, mean latencies were longer (0.350-0.450 ms) and mean amplitudes reduced (0.8-1.8 microV) for all response peaks. In 50% of animals, late peaks (P3, N3) disappeared at 80 Hz. The results offer options for VsEP recording protocols. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system

Abstract Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS2010

Effects of Lightning and Other Meteorological Factors on Fire Activity in the North American Boreal Forest: Implications for Fire Weather Forecasting

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-

Peterson, D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Rate-Compatible Protograph LDPC Codes

Digital communication coding methods resulting in rate-compatible low density parity-check (LDPC) codes built from protographs. Described digital coding methods start with a desired code rate and a selection of the numbers of variable nodes and check nodes to be used in the protograph. Constraints are set to satisfy a linear minimum distance growth property for the protograph. All possible edges in the graph are searched for the minimum iterative decoding threshold and the protograph with the lowest iterative decoding threshold is selected. Protographs designed in this manner are used in decode and forward relay channels.

Nguyen, Thuy V.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Critical Soil Moisture Thresholds of Plant Water Stress in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Plant water stress occurs at the point when soil moisture (SM) limits transpiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θ crit ). Knowledge of the spatial distribution of θ crit is crucial for future projections of climate and water resources. Here, we use global eddy covariance observations to quantify θcrit and evaporative fraction (EF) regimes. Three canonical variables describe how EF is controlled by SM: the maximum EF (EF max ), θ crit , and slope (S) between EF and SM. We find systematic differences of these three variables across biomes. Variation in θ crit , S, and EFmax is mostly explained by soil texture, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, respectively, as well as vegetation structure. Dryland ecosystems tend to operate at low θ crit and show adaptation to water deficits. The negative relationship between θ crit and S indicates that dryland ecosystems minimize θcrit through mechanisms of sustained SM extraction and transport by xylem. Our results further suggest an optimal adaptation of local EF-SM response that maximizes growing-season evapotranspiration and photosynthesis.

Zheng Fu↗