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At least 289 records · Page 16

New Insights into the First Two PSP Solar Encounters Enabled by Modeling Analysis with ADAPT-WSA

Parker Solar Probe's (PSP's) unique orbital path allows us to observe the solar wind closer to the Sun than ever before. Essential to advancing our knowledge of solar wind and energetic particle formation is identifying the sources of PSP observations. We report on results for the first two PSP solar encounters derived using the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model driven by Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model maps. We derive the coronal magnetic field and the 1 R⊙ source regions of the PSP-observed solar wind. We validate our results with the solar wind speed and magnetic polarity observed at PSP. When modeling results are very reliable, we derive time series of model-derived spacecraft separation from the heliospheric current sheet, magnetic expansion factor, coronal hole boundary distance, and photospheric field strength along the field lines estimated to be connected to the spacecraft. We present new results for Encounter 1, which show time evolution of the far-side mid-latitude coronal hole that PSP corotates with. We discuss how this evolution coincides with solar wind speed, density, and temperature observed at the spacecraft. During Encounter 2, a new active region emerges on the solar far side, making it difficult to model. We show that ADAPT-WSA output agrees well with PSP observations once this active region rotates onto the near side, allowing us to reliably estimate the solar wind sources retrospectively for most of the encounter. We close with ways in which coronal modeling enables scientific interpretation of these encounters that would otherwise not have been possible.

Solar wind↗

Completion of the Edward Air Force Base Statistical Guidance Wind Tool

The goal of this task was to develop a GUI using EAFB wind tower data similar to the KSC SLF peak wind tool that is already in operations at SMG. In 2004, MSFC personnel began work to replicate the KSC SLF tool using several wind towers at EAFB. They completed the analysis and QC of the data, but due to higher priority work did not start development of the GUI. MSFC personnel calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of 10-minute peak wind occurrence based on the 2-minute average wind speed for several EAFB wind towers. Once the data were QC'ed and analyzed the climatologies were calculated following the methodology outlined in Lambert (2003). The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and then were stratified by hour, direction (10" sectors), and direction (45" sectors)/hour. For all climatologies, MSFC calculated the mean, standard deviation and observation counts of the Zminute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds. MSFC personnel also calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds using PDFs. The empirical PDFs were asymmetrical and bounded on the left by the 2- minute average wind speed. They calculated the parametric PDFs by fitting the GEV distribution to the empirical distributions. Parametric PDFs were calculated in order to smooth and interpolate over variations in the observed values due to possible under-sampling of certain peak winds and to estimate probabilities associated with average winds outside the observed range. MSFC calculated the individual probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds by integrating the area under each curve. The probabilities assist SMG forecasters in assessing the shuttle FR for various Zminute average wind speeds. The A M ' obtained the processed EAFB data from Dr. Lee Bums of MSFC and reformatted them for input to Excel PivotTables, which allow users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUI was created from the PivotTables using VBA code. It is run through a macro within Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and probabilities in a fast-paced operational environment. The GUI was designed to look and operate exactly the same as the KSC SLF tool since SMG forecasters were already familiar with that product. SMG feedback was continually incorporated into the GUI ensuring the end product met their needs. The final version of the GUI along with all climatologies, PDFs, and probabilities has been delivered to SMG and will be put into operational use.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗

A Comparative Analysis of Micrometeorological Determinants of Evapotranspiration Rates Within a Heterogeneous Urban Environment

Variability in micrometeorological conditions and their influence on estimated reference evapotranspiration (RET) rates were evaluated across a heterogeneous urban environment. Micrometeorological data sets (incoming solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) were collected over a one-year period at six weather stations in New York City, NY (USA). Weather stations are located at four new urban green space monitoring sites and two airports. Reference evapotranspiration (RET) rates were estimated from the micrometeorological data sets for a short reference surface at a daily time-step using the ASCE Standardized Reference Evapotranspiration Equation, a Penman-Monteith based combination equation. Nonparametric comparative statistical analyses (Kruskal-Wallis) revealed statistically significant differences (at significance level α = 0.05) in micrometeorological conditions and estimated RET rates between the six sites. On a cumulative annual basis, estimated RET varied by up to 40 percent between the sites. A new technique for adjusting weather data collected at one location (e.g. regional airports) for use at another location (e.g. interior engineered urban green spaces) was evaluated. The study highlights the importance, for accurate estimation of ET, of onsite micrometeorological data sets, but concludes that additional research is needed to more thoroughly characterize micrometeorological variability across heterogeneous urban environments, and also to evaluate the influence of non-meteorological determinants, e.g. vegetation type, soil/media type, media moisture conditions and anthropogenic heat fluxes, on urban ET.

Urban environment↗

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Sea spray aerosol production flux retrieval based on Doppler lidar measurements

Supermicron sea spray aerosols (SSA) play a crucial role in stratocumulus cloud microphysics and drizzle formation. However, our understanding of SSA's spatiotemporal distribution, production mechanisms, and fluxes in the marine boundary layer remains limited. This study introduces a novel approach to determine supermicron SSA production flux and number concentration at various heights above the ocean surface. Our method leverages Doppler lidar data, specifically attenuated backscatter and vertical velocity, collected at a 105 m range gate during the Eastern Pacific Clouds and Aerosols for Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) at Scripps Pier, La Jolla, California. To focus on nascent SSA, we analyzed data from periods with wind directions between 225° and 315° and wind speeds exceeding 4 m s −1 . Cloud and precipitation events were excluded using relative humidity, backscatter thresholds, and 2D Video Disdrometer observations. Results show that calculated supermicron SSA number concentrations at 105 m ranged from 0.26 to 2.93 cm −3 for surface wind speeds between 4 and 6 ms −1 . When exceeding the method's Limit of Detection, estimated production fluxes ranged from 0.20 to 1.53 cm −2 s −1 . This methodology has potential for application in various oceanic locations, likely enhancing our understanding of SSA's role in atmospheric processes and climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PV Module Operating Temperature - Data and Resources

The Photovoltaic Systems Evaluation Laboratory (PSEL) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM has an extensive test site where PV modules and other system components are deployed and monitored for testing and evaluation. For this dataset PV Performance Labs has assembled one year of measurements from the Systems Long-Term Evaluation (SLTE) project (formerly known as PV Lifetime) providing the main variables needed to investigate and validate PV module operating temperature models: irradiance, ambient temperature, wind speed and back-of-module temperature. For use with more advanced thermal modeling, an estimate of down-welling long-wave radiation is also included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds

Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating tropical cyclone central pressure and outer winds from satellite microwave data

A new technique is presented for estimating central pressure and surface winds outside of the radius of maximum winds from brightness temperatures measured by the SCAMS on Nimbus 6. The problem of estimating maximum surface winds is not treated because the spatial resolution of the radiometer is not high enough for this purpose. The technique is developed on the basis of measurements over eight typhoons and five hurricanes during 1975. It is shown that the warm 55.45-GHz brightness temperature anomaly previously observed over Typhoon June can be found over other tropical cyclones. Maximum brightness temperature anomaly correlates with central pressure with a correlation coefficient of -0.859. Outer surface wind speeds are calculated by assuming gradient balance and using the regression between brightness temperature anomaly and central pressure to estimate pressure gradients.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

Electron–Ion Temperature Ratio in Astrophysical Shocks

Collisionless shock waves in supernova remnants and the solar wind heat electrons less effectively than they heat ions, as is predicted by kinetic simulations. However, the values of T e /T p inferred from the Hα profiles of supernova remnant shocks behave differently as a function of Mach number or Alfvén Mach number than what is measured in the solar wind or predicted by simulations. Here we determine T e /T p for supernova remnant shocks using Hα profiles, shock speeds from proper motions, and electron temperatures from X-ray spectra. We also improve the estimates of sound speed and Alfvén speed used to determine Mach numbers. We find that the Hα determinations are robust and that the discrepancies among supernova remnant shocks, solar wind shocks, and computer-simulated shocks remain. We discuss some possible contributing factors, including shock precursors, turbulence, and varying preshock conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Estimation Surface Latent Heat Flux Over the Ocean and its Relationship to Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) Structure

A new technique combining active and passive remote sensing instruments for the estimation of surface latent heat flux over the ocean is presented. This synergistic method utilizes aerosol lidar backscatter data, multi-channel infrared radiometer data and microwave scatterometer data acquired onboard the NASA P-3B research aircraft during an extended field campaign over the Atlantic ocean in support of the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) in September of 1994. The 10 meter wind speed derived from the scatterometers and the lidar-radiometer inferred near-surface moisture are used to obtain an estimate of the surface flux of moisture via bulk aerodynamic formulae. The results are compared with the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) daily average latent heat flux and show reasonable agreement. However, the SSM/I values are biased high by about 30 W/sq m. In addition, the MABL height, entrainment zone thickness and integrated lidar backscatter intensity are computed from the lidar data and compared with the magnitude of the surface fluxes. The results show that the surface latent heat flux is most strongly correlated with entrainment zone top, bottom and the integrated MABL lidar backscatter, with corresponding correlation coefficients of 0.62, 0.67 and 0.61, respectively.

Palm, Stephen P.↗

The Estimation of Surface Latent Heat Flux Over the Ocean and its Relationship to Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) Structure

A new technique combining active and passive remote sensing instruments for the estimation of surface latent heat flux over the ocean is presented. This synergistic method uses aerosol lidar backscatter data, multi-channel infrared radiometer data and microwave scatterometer data acquired onboard the NASA P-3B research aircraft during an extended field campaign over the Atlantic ocean in support of the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) in September of 1994. The 10 meter wind speed derived from the scatterometers and the lidar-radiometer inferred near-surface moisture are used to obtain an estimate of the surface flux of moisture via bulk aerodynamic formulae. The results are compared with the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) daily average latent heat flux and show reasonable agreement with an rms error and bias of about 50 and 25 W per square meters, respectively. In addition, the MABL height, entrainment zone thickness and integrated lidar backscatter intensity are computed from the lidar data and compared with the magnitude of the surface fluxes. The results show that the surface latent heat flux is most strongly correlated with entrainment zone top, bottom and the integrated MABL lidar backscatter, with corresponding correlation coefficients of 0.62, 0.67 and 0.61, respectively.

Palm, Stephen P.↗

Using a coupled dispersion model to estimate depletion of a tritium oxide plume by a forest

Tritium processing facilities may release tritium oxide (HTO) to the atmosphere which poses potential health risks to exposed co-located workers and to offsite individuals. Most radiological consequence analyses determine HTO dose by applying Gaussian plume models to simulate the transport of HTO. Within these models, deposition velocity is used to assess the sum of all deposition processes acting on the plume. While this may account for vegetative and soil uptake or respiration processes, it may currently lack inclusion of the complex interactions within heterogeneous forested environments. In this complex morphology, dispersion patterns are significantly altered by changing flow regimes above and below the forest canopy and by the transfer of plume material across the canopy boundary. To determine the effects of a heterogeneous forest canopy on an airborne HTO plume, a Gaussian plume model coupled with an advection-diffusion plume model was applied to estimate transport in the free atmosphere above the forest and within the forest canopy and understory. During 2012, wind speed and wind direction measurements taken at 5 heights, ranging from 2-m to 28-m, on an instrumented meteorological tower located in a loblolly pine forest at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), near Aiken, SC. From these measurements, model predictions were made over a full spectrum of meteorological conditions. Deposition and resuspension velocities were calculated based on the model-predicted flux of plume material across the top of the forest canopy. Additionally, net deposition velocity of the plume material was calculated as the difference between the deposition and resuspension velocities. The 1st and 5th percentile net deposition velocities were estimated to be 0.7 cm s-1 and 1.2 cm s-1, respectively.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Terminal Area Productivity Airport Wind Analysis and Chicago O'Hare Model Description

This paper describes two results from a continuing effort to provide accurate cost-benefit analyses of the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program technologies. Previous tasks have developed airport capacity and delay models and completed preliminary cost benefit estimates for TAP technologies at 10 U.S. airports. This task covers two improvements to the capacity and delay models. The first improvement is the completion of a detailed model set for the Chicago O'Hare (ORD) airport. Previous analyses used a more general model to estimate the benefits for ORD. This paper contains a description of the model details with results corresponding to current conditions. The second improvement is the development of specific wind speed and direction criteria for use in the delay models to predict when the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) will allow use of reduced landing separations. This paper includes a description of the criteria and an estimate of AVOSS utility for 10 airports based on analysis of 35 years of weather data.

Hemm, Robert↗

Aeolian processes on Venus

Many of the questions regarding aeolian processes on Venus and the subsequent implications for surface history involve understanding the physics of particle motion in the venusian environment. The surface environment of Venus is simulated as closely as practicable using the Venus Wind Tunnel and to determine threshold wind speeds, particle flux, particle velocities, and the characteristics of various aeolian bedforms. Despite the relatively low wind speeds on Venus, the flux of windblown material on Venus is potentially high. A high fraction of material is transported as surface creep by rolling, estimates yield rates up to 100 kg per cm lane width per year depending upon the availability of material and wind frequency, suggesting that the formation of lowland plains by aeolian processes and the burial of various landforms such as impact craters could occur on short geological time-scales. Wind tunnel simulations demonstrate that aeolian processes may be very effective in modifying the surface through erosion and deposited and may have an important influence on the composition of the atmosphere.

Greeley, R.↗

The wavenumber spectra of scatterometer-derived winds

The accuracy of scatterometer-derived winds using a frequency-domain analysis and simulation is studied. The wavenumber spectra of the Seasat-A-scatterometer (SASS)-derived wind fields have been observed to be accentuated relative to the input wind field. The results of extensive simulations designed to test this observation are reported. Actual SASS measurements of the normalized radar backscatter (NRB) over an orbit (rev) are used as a template to generate simulated NRB measurements. Pointwise estimation of winds from the simulated NRB measurements is accomplished with the ambiguity closest to the true wind selected as the unique wind vector estimate. For comparison, winds are also estimated using a new model-based approach. After wind retrieval, the spectra of the estimated wind fields are computed and compared to the input wind field. The high wavenumber portion of the spectra of the pointwise estimated winds was higher than the spectra of the true winds by an amount which depends on the wind speed variance.

Long, D. G.↗

Latent and sensible heat flux estimated from ERS-1 data

Two issues regarding surface latent and sensible heat flux are addressed: its value in low wind speed conditions over the tropical oceans,and its determination solely from satellite observations. The investigation is performed with an oceanic mixed layer model operated in an 'inverse' mode. The 'normal' model is forced with the surface heat and radiative fluxes and produces the SST evolution, whereas the 'inverse' model produces the latent sensible heat flux given the SST and surface radiative flux as input. The results indicate that at low wind speeds there exists a minimum latent sensible heat flux of about 80 to 100 W/sq m. Sensitivity studies show that the latent sensible heat flux is very sensitive to random errors in the forcing SST time series. The implications of this strong sensitivity in regards to the use of satellite measurements to supply the forcing SST are discussed.

Iacobellis, S. F.↗

AMSU-A Tropical Cyclone Maximum Sustained Winds and Web Site

The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)-A instruments on the NOAA-15 and NOAA-16 satellites provide information on the warm cores of tropical cyclones from oxygen channel brightness temperature (Tb) measurements near 55 GHz. With appropriate assumptions, cyclone-scale Tb gradients can be directly related to middle-to-lower tropospheric height gradients. We have developed a method for diagnosis of maximum sustained winds (Vmax) from radially averaged Tb gradients in several of the AMSU channels. Calibration of the method with recon-based (or other in situ) winds results in better agreement than with Dvorak wind estimates. Gradient wind theory shows that the warm core Tb gradient signal increases non-linearly with wind speed, making microwave temperature sounders useful for diagnosing high wind speeds, but at the expense of a minimum useful detection limit of about 40 knots. It is found that accurate wind diagnoses depend upon (1) accounting for hydrometeor effects in the AMSU channels, and (2) maximizing signal-to-noise, since the 50 km resolution data cannot fully resolve the temperature gradients in the Vmax region, typically 10-20 km in scale. AMSU imagery and max diagnoses from specific hurricanes will be shown, including independent tests from the 2000 hurricane season.

Spencer, Roy↗

Estimation of the Ambient Wind Field From Wind Turbine Measurements Using Gaussian Process Regression

In the search for a lower levelized cost of wind energy, one approach is to increase the accuracy of wind turbine measurements such as wind speed and wind direction. The sensors available on wind turbines are susceptible to local turbulence and measurement bias, which can result in suboptimal turbine performance. As an alternative, recent research has considered using the sensor measurements in a coordinated manner. With such a cooperative approach, the local wind conditions can be estimated more accurately and reliably without the need for additional measurement equipment. In this paper, a novel wind field estimation approach is presented that estimates the local wind conditions based on turbine measurements using Gaussian processes. We show that the estimation framework is able to improve the accuracy of the wind direction estimate both in an offline and online manner, as well as identify possible biases in the sensors and reduce unnecessary wind turbine yaw activity.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗