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296 records · Page 17

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗

Control Mechanisms for Self‐Sealing in Activated Clay‐Rich Faults Through Controlled Hydraulic Injection Experiment

Abstract In a high‐pressure injection fault activation experiment conducted at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland, the transmissivity of the Opalinus Clay fault significantly increased due to opening and shearing. The fluid injection, spanning a few hours, generated a 10 m radius fault activation patch. Subsequent pressure pulse tests conducted bi‐weekly for a year revealed the gradual return of fault transmissivity to its initial state. The study utilized fluid pressure decay analysis, optical fiber monitoring, continuous active source seismic measurements and borehole displacement sensors for measuring fault displacements. The fault zone exhibited a dilation of approximately 1.4 mm, associated with both normal and tangential movements during activation, resulting in a sudden transmissivity increase from 1 × 10 −12 to 3.2 × 10 −7 m 2 /s. Early post‐activation, transient compaction and the subsequent slow compaction were observed, transitioning to an extension regime. The pressure pulse tests demonstrated a rapid transmissivity drop by more than two orders of magnitude within the first 10 days, followed by a gradual and less pronounced decrease. Plastic shear and compaction dominated the transmissivity evolution until 70 days after injection ended, followed by a period where additional factors, such as clay mineral swelling, influenced the behavior. Extrapolation suggested a sealing process taking at least 50 years after the initial activation. Plain Language Summary A field‐scale fault activation experiment offers valuable insights into the elasto‐plastic processes governing the sealing of shale faults. The experiment reveals a rapid increase in the fault's transmissivity by approximately five orders of magnitude during activation. Subsequent observations show a gradual transmissivity decrease by about three orders of magnitude post‐activation, with slow long‐term plastic shear and compaction of the fault competing against secondary processes, notably clay mineral swelling. All conceptual models employed to interpret these field data converge on the estimation that the fault's return to its initial low transmissivity state would require a minimum of 50 years. Key Points High‐pressure injection fault activation experiment at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory Continuous transmissivity measurements record self‐sealing inside a clay‐rich fault zone Transmissivity undergoes a phase of domination by slow plastic compaction and shearing during the initial post‐activation period, with mineral swelling exerting its influence over the long term

Guglielmi, Yves↗

A Rover Deployed Ground Penetrating Radar on Mars

Radar is a fundamental tool capable of addressing a variety of geological problems on Mars via collection of data suitable for interpreting variations in surface morphology and reflectivity. Surface-deployed ground penetrating radar (GPR) can help further constrain the geology and structure of the near surface of Mars by directly measuring the range and character of in situ radar properties. In recognition of this potential, a miniaturized, easily modified GPR is being developed for possible deployment on a future Mars rover and will enable definition of radar stratigraphy at high spatial resolution to depths of 10-20 meters. Ongoing development of a Mars impulse GPR with industry partners at Geophysical Survey Systems, Inc., focuses on design and testing of a prototype transducer array (with both high frequency bistatic and low frequency monostatic components) in parallel with fabrication of a low power, mass, and volume control unit. The operational depth of 10-20 meters is geared towards definition of stratigraphy, subsurface blocks, and structure at the decimeter to meter scale that is critical for establishing the geologic setting of the rover. GPR data can also be used to infer the degree of any post-depositional pedogenic alteration or weathering that has subsequently taken place, thereby enabling assessment of pristine versus secondary morphology at the landing site. As is the case for most remote sensing instruments, a GPR may not detect water unambiguously. Nevertheless, any local, near-surface occurrence of liquid water will lead to large, easily detected dielectric contrasts. Moreover, definition of stratigraphy and setting will help in evaluating the history of aqueous activity and where any water might occur and be accessible. Most importantly perhaps, GPR can provide critical context for other rover and orbital instruments/data sets. Hence, GPR deployment along well positioned transects in the vicinity of a lander should enable 3-D mapping of stratigraphy and could serve to guide direct subsurface sampling. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Grant, J. A.↗

Hyperspectral leaf reflectance of grasses varies with evolutionary lineage more than with site

Abstract To predict ecological responses at broad environmental scales, grass species are commonly grouped into two broad functional types based on photosynthetic pathway. However, closely related species may have distinctive anatomical and physiological attributes that influence ecological responses, beyond those related to photosynthetic pathway alone. Hyperspectral leaf reflectance can provide an integrated measure of covarying leaf traits that may result from phylogenetic trait conservatism and/or environmental conditions. Understanding whether spectra‐trait relationships are lineage specific or reflect environmental variation across sites is necessary for using hyperspectral reflectance to predict plant responses to environmental changes across spatial scales. We measured hyperspectral leaf reflectance (400–2400 nm) and 12 structural, biochemical, and physiological leaf traits from five grass‐dominated sites spanning the Great Plains of North America. We assessed if variation in leaf reflectance spectra among grass species is explained more by evolutionary lineage (as captured by tribes or subfamilies), photosynthetic pathway (C 3 or C 4 ), or site differences. We then determined whether leaf spectra can be used to predict leaf traits within and across lineages. Our results using redundancy analysis ordination (RDA) show that grass tribe identity explained more variation in leaf spectra (adjusted R 2 = 0.12) than photosynthetic pathway, which explained little variation in leaf spectra (adjusted R 2 = 0.00). Furthermore, leaf reflectance from the same tribe across multiple sites was more similar than leaf reflectance from the same site across tribes (adjusted R 2 = 0.12 and 0.08, respectively). Across all sites and species, trait predictions based on spectra ranged considerably in predictive accuracies ( R 2 = 0.65 to <0.01), but R 2 was >0.80 for certain lineages and sites. The relationship between Vc max , a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and spectra was particularly promising. Chloridoideae, a lineage more common at drier sites, appears to have distinct spectra‐trait relationships compared with other lineages. Overall, our results show that evolutionary relatedness explains more variation in grass leaf spectra than photosynthetic pathway or site, but consideration of lineage‐ and site‐specific trait relationships is needed to interpret spectral variation across large environmental gradients.

Pau, Stephanie [Department of Geography University↗

Genesis Solar Wind Sample Curation Documentation

Introduction: A scientist with experience as a sample science analyst, provider of flight hardware for multiple missions, and senior engineer in an ISO 2000-rated manufacturing plant has described the timeline of key participants in any PI-led sample return mission, the breadth of the organizations involved [1,2], and, of interest to this meeting, choosing the types of data to preserve and issues of future data accessibility. This work broadens that perspective by giving similar lessons from Genesis sample curation point-of-view. Curation participation regarding data gathering was part of the mission review process from the beginning. Genesis’ story illustrates outcome of several choices about types of data to record and preserve. Precision analysis of solar wind atoms captured in pure, ultraclean substrates is the driving science goal; therefore, detailed documentation was captured from all mission and curation phases and from investigator laboratories because these processes affect the final analytical results [3]. Pre-flight: Design and fabrication of the spacecraft. Like many modern small sample return missions, Genesis was a tightly managed team integrated across science, engineering and curation. Communication across the team was excellent, and, for the most part, the hands-on engineering technicians understood the impacts of “small choices” they routinely make, and the eyes-on oversight of manufacturing processes by scientists was mindful of details. The payload was designed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the spacecraft by Lockheed Martin. Solar wind collectors and instruments were fabricated by multiple vendors and laboratories. The main portion of the payload was assembled at JSC. Fabrication procedures and contamination-control data (with witness coupons) were stored primarily at JSC. The original composition, dimensions and configuration of components, results of thermal testing, etc. are still needed for interpretation of analytical data. At times, these must be estimated from secondary information acquired pre-flight. Moreover, some files (e.g., original 3-D models and early Powerpoint) cannot be opened using software. Archived curation data includes 2-D drawings, material usage lists, QA documentation and analyses of consumables used during fabrication. Important chemical information still resides in archived hardware, paints and lubricants, material coupons, cleaning coupons, environmental witness plates and reference materials from manufacturing facilities. Purity and cleanliness of collector substrates. Semi-conductor vendors provided surface cleanliness data and some purity data. Purity for specific elements of interest was verified by science team members in their laboratories [4]. Curation archived procurement and shipping records, analysis reports, and non-proprietary fabrication data. A physical archive of flight collector reference materials is maintained for future use so additional data can be collected as analytical techniques improve. These are of increased value due to the hard landing upon re-entry. Cleaning and cleanliness assessments of flight hardware. Cleaning of the science canister payload was performed at JSC in a dedicated ISO 4 cleanroom using ultrapure water (UPW). The cleanliness of this UPW was monitored throughout processing. The archive for the clean lab also includes airborne particle counts, airborne molecular and inorganic contamination measurements as well as cleanroom construction material coupons and witness coupons. Hardware cleanliness was assessed by particle counts in rinse water batches. This information is recorded in batch cleaning forms and logbooks, and are, perhaps, of decreased value due to the hard landing. Post-flight: Curation-generated data. The curation handling history of each Genesis sample is documented in a typical astromaterials sample database which captures sample location, physical description and characterization data. Samples have a “shelf life”. Crucial to the preservation of samples is ongoing documentation of the sample environment, initially under curatorial control but is now a separate facility function with requires coordination. PI-generated data. Data on sample characterization and cleaning techniques continues to be generated by sample users [5]. These are often captured in LPSC abstracts, but these “engineering” results often are not publishable as stand-alone papers. We are actively looking for ways to make this information more accessible to users. Ion implants into samples have aided science return and can be shared among investigators. These (and similar) materials should be added to the curatorial collection with appropriate process and characterization data generated externally. Summary: Complete data archives for returned astromaterial samples must be broad in types and formats, and inclusive of environmental monitoring.

Genesis↗

Atmospheric H 2 observations from the NOAA Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network

Abstract. The NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) measures atmospheric hydrogen (H2) in grab samples collected weekly as flask pairs at over 50 sites in the Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network. Measurements representative of background air sampling show higher H2 in recent years at all latitudes. The marine boundary layer (MBL) global mean H2 was 552.8 ppb in 2021, 20.2 ± 0.2 ppb higher compared to 2010. A 10 ppb or more increase over the 2010–2021 average annual cycle was detected in 2016 for MBL zonal means in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere. Carbon monoxide measurements in the same-air samples suggest large biomass burning events in different regions likely contributed to the observed interannual variability at different latitudes. The NOAA H2 measurements from 2009 to 2021 are now based on the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO GAW) H2 mole fraction calibration scale, developed and maintained by the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Jena, Germany. GML maintains eight H2 primary calibration standards to propagate the WMO scale. These are gravimetric hydrogen-in-air mixtures in electropolished stainless steel cylinders (Essex Industries, St. Louis, MO), which are stable for H2. These mixtures were calibrated at the MPI-BGC, the WMO Central Calibration Laboratory (CCL) for H2, in late 2020 and span the range 250–700 ppb. We have used the CCL assignments to propagate the WMO H2 calibration scale to NOAA air measurements performed using gas chromatography and helium pulse discharge detector instruments since 2009. To propagate the scale, NOAA uses a hierarchy of secondary and tertiary standards, which consist of high-pressure whole-air mixtures in aluminum cylinders, calibrated against the primary and secondary standards, respectively. Hydrogen at the parts per billion level has a tendency to increase in aluminum cylinders over time. We fit the calibration histories of these standards with zero-, first-, or second-order polynomial functions of time and use the time-dependent mole fraction assignments on the WMO scale to reprocess all tank air and flask air H2 measurement records. The robustness of the scale propagation over multiple years is evaluated with the regular analysis of target air cylinders and with long-term same-air measurement comparison efforts with WMO GAW partner laboratories. Long-term calibrated, globally distributed, and freely accessible measurements of H2 and other gases and isotopes continue to be essential to track and interpret regional and global changes in the atmosphere composition. The adoption of the WMO H2 calibration scale and subsequent reprocessing of NOAA atmospheric data constitute a significant improvement in the NOAA H2 measurement records.

Pétron, Gabrielle↗

Multiple Probe Measurements at Uranus Motivated By Spatial Variability

Motivation: Spatial variations in the temperature field and composition of Uranus' atmosphere demonstrate a need for multiple entry probes to characterize vertical profiles in multiple locations. We will review variation of composition and temperature, which are produced by dynamical processes on a range of scales from global (polar anomalies, zonal bands) to regional (vortices, storms) [1–2]. In particular, the spatial variation of convective activity is not well understood based on existing remote sensing observations [3]. Understanding how these processes operate, and how they modulate variable composition, is key to constraining bulk atmospheric abundances. Abundances in turn provide cosmochemical constraints on planetary origins. Secondary probes at Uranus: Key measurements for secondary probes are temperature-pressure profiles, along with compositional profiles. Radio occultations are limited to shallow levels less than ~2 bar [4]. In situ temperature-pressure measurements (or atmospheric structure measurements) can unambiguously extend these results to deeper levels. Measurements with vertical resolution of at least 2 km are needed to characterize anomalies like the 1.2-bar feature from the Voyager 2 occultation at 2–6° S [4], which supports a range of temperature gradients depending on assumptions of composition. Simultaneous measurements of temperature, pressure, and composition are key to understanding this class of features. Species such as methane, hydrogen sulfide, and ammonia must be measured along a probe descent profile because they vary over several orders of magnitude due to the strong temperature dependence of their saturation vapor pressures [e.g., 5]. Results of these measurements can be interpreted to understand the potential for moist convective activity in the atmosphere. Lessons from the other giant planets: On Jupiter, the Galileo Probe's entry into a meteorologically distinct five-micron hot spot led many to interpret the local composition as column-stretched, so that well-mixed abundances were reached at deeper levels than in surrounding, unperturbed regions [6–8]. Ground-based microwave measurements and Juno data now indicate that the deep depletion of ammonia is a very widespread atmospheric characteristic not limited to 5-µm hot spots [9–11]. But in the absence of multiple probes, we do not know if the other volatiles H2S and H2O behave in the same way. The open questions for the Jupiter case strongly motivate sending multiple probes to Uranus. On Saturn, retrievals of NH3 and PH3 abundances at shallow levels vary with latitude [12], but it is unknown how deep these differences extend, which is why a Saturn probe (or probes) was a mission theme for NASA's New Frontiers 4 and 5 opportunities [13]. Challenges for secondary probes: Cost is an issue due to the perception that it involves sacrifices to other mission elements. Spacecraft trajectories may be constrained by needs for orbit insertion that limit probe deliveries to different latitudes, and additional limitations may be placed on communication windows for probe descent phases (particularly if multiple probes are released from the orbiter simultaneously) [14]. Finally, composition sensors for miniature secondary probes are not at the required technological maturity [15]. Mass spectrometers are typically too large, massive, and powerhungry, while smaller nanosensors are only beginning to be developed for planetary missions. Finally, the need for probe survival heating is most easily met by radioisotope heat sources, but these require regulatory approvals that are even more difficult to satisfy compared to standard environmental reviews [16], unless the secondary probe is designed as a core element of a mission. References: [1] Molter E.M., et al. (2021) PSJ, 2, 3. [2] Rowe-Gurney N., et al. (2021) Icar, 365, 114506. [3] Hueso R., Sánchez-Lavega A. (2019) SSRv, 215, 52. [4] Lindal G.F., et al. (1987) JGR, 92, 14987– 15001. [5] Simon A.A., et al. (2022) RemS, 14, 1518. [6] Atreya, S.K., et al. (1997) in The Three Galileos: The Man, the Spacecraft, the Telescope, pp. 249–260 (C. Barbieri et al., eds.). [7] Showman A.P., Ingersoll A.P. (1998) Icar, 132, 205–220. [8] Friedson A.J. (2005) Icar, 177, 1–17. [9] de Pater I., et al. (2001) Icar, 149, 66–78. [10] Li C., et al. (2017) GeoRL, 44, 5317–5325. [11] de Pater I., et al. (2019) Icar, 322, 168–191. [12] Fletcher L.N., et al. (2009) Icar, 202, 543–564. [13] National Research Council (2011) Vision and Voyages. [14] Sayanagi K.M., et al. (2020) SSRv, 216, 72. [15] Wong M.H. et al. (2021) BAAS, 53, 486. [16] Zide A., Mendoza-Hill A., Cheney D. (2022) COSPAR Abstracts H0.6-0012-22.

Michael H Wong↗

Baseflow Identification via Explainable AI With Kolmogorov‐Arnold Networks

Abstract Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN‐derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts; they demonstrate that water availability, rather than potential evapotranspiration, drives baseflow by constraining actual evapotranspiration under arid conditions. On a test set, they increase the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by 65%, decrease the root mean squared error by 29%, and increase the Kling‐Gupta efficiency by 34%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale. The KAN‐derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree‐based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes. Plain Language Summary Equations used in hydrologic model are often suboptimal, resulting in reduced prediction accuracy and efficiency. We implemented Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KAN), a machine learning algorithm for deriving symbolic formulations, to estimate groundwater recharge and showed that it outperforms an existing state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical formulation. In hydrology, Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) are commonly used to evaluate model performance. Higher NSE and KGE values indicate better performance, while lower RMSE values are preferable. Our results show that NSE increased by 71%, RMSE decreased by 32%, and KGE improved by 25%. In addition, KAN identifies an optimal functional form and can be used to derive new analytical formulas using the prior knowledge. The KAN‐inspired equation outperformed the original formulation and reduced the fitting parameters. Furthermore, we refined the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale and showed that, based on the new water‐balance equation, KAN can derive new formulations that are superior to the original aridity index formulations (up to 105% increase in NSE) and KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. These findings highlight the significant potential of KAN to advance the scientific understanding of a wide range of hydrologic processes. Key Points Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs) enhance interpretability of machine‐learned hydrological models KAN‐derived symbolic formulations outperform state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical aridity indices KAN‐identified functional form yields an analytical index with fewer fitting parameters and improved performance

baseflow↗