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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Modelling single atom catalysts for water splitting and fuel cells: A tutorial review

Here, in this tutorial review, we report the state-of-the-art of the modeling approaches of Single Atom Catalysts (SAC) for water splitting and fuel cells reactions. The discussion applies for Hydrogen Evolution Reaction (HER), Oxygen Reduction Reaction (OER), Hydrogen Oxidation Reaction (HOR), and Oxygen Reduction Reaction (ORR). The main scope of this work is to underline the relevant aspects of SACs modelling. On the one hand, the review could help computational chemists aiming to start the study of SACs. On the other hand, experimentalists could find the critical analysis of DFT results of interest to understand better the strengths and weaknesses of simulations, and how to interpret computational results. After an introductory section of SACs, we start by briefly presenting the state-of-the-art methodologies. Then, we analyze the critical aspects for a reliable prediction of the electronic properties, and we discuss the robustness of the structural models and ways to validate them. Furthermore, we discuss the main approaches to predict catalytic activity and selectivity, which is the final goal of the computational catalysis. We conclude this review with a critical analysis of the current challenges in the field, and the main limitations of the modeling approaches that are described.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent advancements in high performance polymer electrolyte fuel cell electrode fabrication – Novel materials and manufacturing processes

The global effort to introduce polymer electrolyte fuel cells for clean and renewable energy to the market is increasing the demand for high performance, robust and affordable membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs). There is not yet a standard method for large scale production of MEAs, or the methods employed are generally unsatisfactory in terms of quality and performance. A large number of published data of newly developed catalyst and electrolyte materials, claim to improve the state of the art, but are often not fully comparable due to different experimental studies and experimental designs. This article summarizes the trends in material developments and emerging MEA-manufacturing techniques. The materials and techniques are systematically compared in terms of cell performance and scalability. Current and future scientific challenges are identified and analysed based on published findings over the past five years. Finally, the results of the cited papers have been quantitatively compared to each other and to the internal benchmarks used in each cited work to provide a complete picture of the state of the art in PEFC MEA manufacturing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A discrete integral transform for rapid spectral synthesis

Accurate synthetic spectra that rely on large Line-By-Line (LBL)-databases are used in a wide range of applications such as high temperature combustion, atmospheric re-entry, planetary surveillance and laboratory plasmas. Conventionally synthetic spectra are calculated by computing a lineshape for every spectral line in the database and adding those together, which may take multiple hours for large databases. In this paper we propose a new approach for spectral synthesis based on an integral transform: the synthetic spectrum is calculated as the integral over the product of a Voigt profile and a newly proposed three-dimensional “lineshape distribution function”, which is a function of spectral position and Gaussian- & Lorentzian width coordinates. A fast discrete version of this transform based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) is proposed, which improves performance compared to the conventional approach by several orders of magnitude while maintaining accuracy. Strategies that minimize the discretization error are discussed. A Python implementation of the method is compared against state-of-the-art spectral code RADIS, and is since adopted as RADIS's default synthesis method. The synthesis of a benchmark CO2 spectrum consisting of 1.8 M spectral lines and 200k spectral points took only 3.1 s using the proposed method (1011 lines × spectral points/s), a factor ~300 improvement over the state-of-the-art, with the relative improvement generally increasing for higher number of lines and/or number of spectral points. Finally, an experimental GPU-implementation of the method was also benchmarked, which demonstrated another 2~3 orders performance increase, achieving up to 5 ∙ 10 14 lines × spectral points/s.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Status of the data acquisition, trigger, and slow control systems of the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab

The Mu2e experiment at the Fermilab will search for a coherent neutrinoless conversion of a muon into an electron in the field of an aluminum nucleus with a sensitivity improvement by a factor of 10,000 over existing limits. In this work, the Mu2e Trigger and Data Acquisition System (TDAQ) uses otsdaq framework as the online Data Acquisition System (DAQ) solution. Developed at Fermilab, otsdaq integrates several framework components — an artdaq-based DAQ, an art-based event processing, and an EPICS-based detector control system (DCS), and provides a uniform multi-user interface to its components through a web browser. Data streams from the Mu2e tracker and calorimeter are handled by the artdaq-based DAQ and processed by a one-level software trigger implemented within the art framework. Events accepted by the trigger have their data combined, post-trigger, with the separately read out data from the Mu2e Cosmic Ray Veto system. Foundation of the Mu2e DCS, EPICS – an Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System – is an open-source platform for monitoring, controlling, alarming, and archiving. A prototype of the TDAQ and the DCS systems has been built and tested over the last three years at Fermilab’s Feynman Computing Center, and now the production system installation is underway. This work presents their status and focus on the installation plans and procedures for racks, workstations, network switches, gateway computers, DAQ hardware, slow controls implementation, and testing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Programming approaches for scalability, performance, and portability of combustion physics codes

Here, this paper presents the process, strategy, and results associated with porting a typical combustion physics flow solver to current state-of-the-art and future massively-parallel computer architectures. Major focus is placed on the distinct algorithmic structure of these types of codes and how it can be integrated with modern programming paradigms for heterogeneous platforms (i.e., distributed many-core systems with accelerators). An end-to-end case study is presented that exemplifies the process in a generic manner, which then serves as a clear guide with respect to the strategy and best practices leading to a robust and adaptable framework that performs well, is durable over time, is portable, and requires minimal human-effort. This end is accomplished beginning with the use of a mature, validated, structured, multiblock code framework optimized for application of both Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). This code has been ported to a variety of platforms over the past decade, including most recently the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility’s “Summit” Platform. The experience gained on these multiple platforms provides general insights and thus the results presented are not specific to any one code or platform other than the overarching trend toward distributed many-core systems with accelerators in order to move toward exascale performance. The resultant performance and scalability of the ported code is demonstrated on a real-world application; a state-of-the-art rotating detonation rocket engine simulation that matches the complex geometry and boundary conditions imposed as part of a companion experimental campaign.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of computing-based automated fault detection and diagnosis of heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems

We report faults in Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems of buildings result in significant energy waste in building operation. With fast-growing sensing data availability and advancement in computing, computational modeling has demonstrated strong capability to detect and diagnose HVAC system faults, hence, ensuring efficient building operation. This paper comprehensively reviews the state-of-the-art computing-based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) for HVAC systems. Overall, the reviewed computing-based FDD methods are classified as two major approaches: knowledge-based and data-driven approaches. We then identify multiple important topics, including data availability, training data size, data quality, approach generality, capability, interpretability, and required modeling efforts, along with corresponding metrics to summarize the most updated FDD development. Generally, the knowledge-based approaches are further divided as physics-based modeling, Diagnostic Bayesian Network, and performance indicator-based methods while data-driven approaches include supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and regression and statistics-based methods. State-of-the-art FDD development, remaining challenges, and future research directions are further discussed to push forward FDD in practice. Availability of fault data, capability of existing methods to deal with complex fault situations (such as simultaneous faults), modeling interpretability for data-driven methods, and required engineering efforts for physics-based methods are identified as remaining challenges in FDD development. Improving modeling fidelity and reducing modeling efforts are essential for applying physics-based methods in real buildings. Meanwhile, addressing fault data availability, increasing algorithm adaptability, and handling multiple faults are essential to further enhance the applicability of data-driven FDD approaches.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Medium-temperature phase change material integration in domestic heat pump water heaters for improved thermal energy storage

In this review, we examine state-of-the-art developments in integrating phase change materials (PCMs) for thermal energy storage (TES) in domestic heat pump water heaters (HPWHs). The component design optimization and control optimization of HPWHs and TES are reviewed for insight into improving the thermal capacity and efficiency of a PCM-integrated HPWH. The state-of-the-art review is categorized by the stage of development of the PCM for deployment in HPWHs. To select appropriate PCMs for HPWHs, a six-factor down-selection process is used to determine the best material(s) for integration in HPWHs with appropriate heat exchanger design. Ultimately, food-grade PCMs appear to be the best candidate for integration of TES in domestic HPWHs because they are nontoxic, highly cyclable, and have heat transfer properties accommodable to water heating when integrated in a manner to overcome the thermal conductivity limitations of the material. A key parameter of water heating performance is thermal heating power of the PCM component, which is not often reported. Many studies report significant improvement in capacity and efficiency. Furthermore, many performance metrics are identified from the literature to quantify the system performance, but agreement across studies is not found. Unified energy factor and first hour rating performance tests are required for commercially available HPWHs, and these performance metrics could homogenize the literature. Ultimately, we find that select PCMs are ready for deployment with HPWHs for performance improvement, and component design and control optimizations are new avenues of research and development required for a commercially viable PCM-integrated HPWH system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations

High impact low probability (HILP) events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods have instigated widespread power outages and blackouts around the globe in the past decade. With the increasing challenges concerning the threats to the power distribution systems and the growing need to mitigate the impacts of the HILP events, resilience has become a crucial requirement for the power grid infrastructures. Numerous efforts have been made to define, measure, and characterize the resilience of power distribution systems. This study thoroughly reviews the state-of-the-art methods on the existing resilience evaluation framework and metrics. Here, the desirable characteristics of resilience metrics are highlighted, and the challenges associated with formulating, developing, and calculating such metrics are discussed. Next, we detail the state-of-the-art literature on planning solutions to ensure distribution system resilience. This paper aims to extract a deep insight into this challenging and critical research area and envision future opportunities that can guide the power distribution system operators/planners to formulate more effective mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible cryogenic air separation unit—An application for low-carbon fossil-fuel plants

In this study, the rapid integration of intermittent renewable sources into the electricity grid is driving the need for a flexible cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) coupled with a low-carbon fossil-fuel plant. However, the state-of-the-art ASU process is highly integrated and nonlinear, which can significantly restrict its ramping rate. In this work, we study the fundamental dynamics of a state-of-the-art double-column ASU, focusing on the dynamic characteristics of the highly integrated and nonlinear heat and mass transfers, and we propose basic control methods for achieving high process ramping rates. We found that the vapor–liquid countercurrent flows in the low-pressure column are critical to the cryogenic rectification of air, which governs the ramp rate of the ASU. This countercurrent flow structure is created through a complex heat integration process in the ASU. Here, this process is simplified as a countercurrent heat transfer to reduce the complexity of studying the ASU dynamics. To preserve this flow structure, the heat integration is maintained so that its heat duty follows the ASU load, using several basic controllers on the critical stream flowrates. A flow-driven dynamic ASU model is built in Aspen Plus Dynamics to capture the basic ramping dynamics. This model revealed a fundamental mismatch in the dynamics in the ASU column that causes a significant loss of O 2 product purity when ramping down the ASU and slightly increases the purity when ramping up. Based on these findings, we propose a basic control method for rapidly ramping down/up the ASU while maintaining O 2 product purity. Simulation results show the ASU basic dynamic process successfully ramps at a rate up to 10 %/min (40–100 % load) while maintaining the O 2 product purity at 95.2–95.6 mol%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stresses within rare-earth doped yttria-stabilized zirconia thermal barrier coatings from in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction at high temperatures

There is a growing interest for smart coatings that can be integrated into turbine engines for in-situ temperature measurements or health monitoring. The addition of rare-earth dopants into standard thermal barrier ceramic top coat materials is used to obtain luminescent coatings that enable spectral measurements, for real-time temperature or health monitoring. The thermomechanical performance and durability of such novel coating compositions in extreme environments still remains to be evaluated. Consequently, the ability to manufacture sensor coatings which present suitable thermal properties needs to be demonstrated. For this study, highly luminescent erbium and europium doped yttria-stabilized zirconia and state-of-the-art yttria-stabilized zirconia coatings manufactured by air plasma spray were characterized to determine the effects of the embedded rareearth dopants on coating internal strain and stress and to quantify and compare their high temperature response using synchrotron X-ray diffraction. In-situ depth-resolved strain measurements were performed at 15 μm intervals along the depth of the coatings to evaluate materials response at key locations, specifically at layer interfaces. In-plane stress was calculated for the coatings and a finite element model was implemented to supplement the results and enable further predictions. The results show that the sensor coatings that were manufactured in this work revealed only minor variations in the strain response of sensor coatings under a typical thermal cycle and especially at temperatures closer to that of gas turbine operating conditions, compared to state-of-the-art coatings. This work demonstrates the viability of manufacturing rare-earth doped yttria-stabilized zirconia coatings that provide beneficial spectroscopic monitoring capabilities while having minimal impact on the thermomechanical response of the thermal barrier coatings.

Air plasma spray↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduction kinetics of hematite powder using argon/hydrogen plasma with prospects for near net shaping of sustainable iron

Direct reduction of iron ore using hydrogen plasma is being explored as a potential solution to decarbonize the iron and steel sector. The current state-of-the-art demonstrated reduction of hematite pellets via hydrogen plasma using Ar + 10% H 2 but had slow reduction kinetics, requiring 30 minutes of plasma exposure for complete reduction. Here we show that using hematite in a powder form, easily obtainable from beneficiated ore, results in 10× faster kinetics using plasma generated from Ar + 2% H 2 shielding gas compared to the current state-of-the art. Additionally, the increased kinetics using powders and a dilute hydrogen concentration can enable the use of advanced manufacturing techniques like blown powder directed energy deposition using a plasma tungsten arc welding torch to manufacture near net shape components directly from the ore concentrates. This ore to part approach will also reduce the emissions associated with downstream processes like rolling, forging, and machining, thereby further aiding in the sectorial decarbonization efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Concepts in Electrolytes

Over the past decades, Li-ion battery (LIB) has turned into one of the most important advances in the history of technology due to its extensive and in-depth impact on our life. Its omnipresence in all electric vehicles, consumer electronics and electric grids relies on the precisely tuned electrochemical dynamics and interactions among the electrolytes and the diversified anode and cathode chemistries therein. Furthermore, with consumers' demand for battery performance ever increasing, more and more stringent requirements are being imposed upon the established equilibria among these LIB components, and it became clear that the state-of-the-art electrolyte systems could no longer sustain the desired technological trajectory. Driven by such gap, researchers started to explore more unconventional electrolyte systems. From superconcentrated solvent-in-salt electrolytes to solid-state electrolytes, the current research realm of novel electrolyte systems has grown to unprecedented levels. In this review, we will avoid discussions on current state-of-the-art electrolytes but instead focus exclusively on unconventional electrolyte systems that represent new concepts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking an Embedded Adaptive Sampling Configuration Interaction Method for Surface Reactions: H 2 Desorption from and CH 4 Dissociation on Cu(111)

Embedded (emb-) correlated wavefunction (CW) theory enables accurate assessments of both ground- and excited-state reaction mechanisms involved in heterogeneous catalysis. Embedded multireference second-order perturbation theory (emb-MRPT2) based on reference wavefunctions generated via embedded complete active space self-consistent field (emb-CASSCF) theory is currently state-of-the-art. However, the factorial scaling of CASSCF limits the size of active space and the complexity of systems that can be studied. In this work, we assess the efficacy of an alternative CW method, adaptive sampling configuration interaction (ASCI)–which enables large active spaces to be used–for studying surface reactions. We couple ASCI with density functional embedding theory (DFET) and benchmark its performance for two reactions: H 2 desorption from and CH 4 dissociation on the Cu(111) surface. Unlike embedded complete active space second-order perturbation theory (emb-CASPT2) that accurately reproduces a measured H 2 desorption barrier, embedded ASCI, using a very large active space (though one that still comprises a small portion of the full set of orbitals) fails to do so. Adding an extra correlation term from embedded Møller–Plesset second-order perturbation theory (emb-MP2) improves the desorption barrier and endothermicity predictions. Thus, the inaccuracy of embedded ASCI comes from the missing dynamic correlation from the many other electrons and orbitals not included in the active space. For CH 4 dissociation, again embedded ASCI overestimates the dissociation barrier compared to emb-CASPT2 predictions. Adding dynamic correlation from emb-MP2 helps correct the barrier. However, this composite approach suffers from double counting of correlation within embedded ASCI followed by emb-MP2 calculations. We therefore conclude that the state-of-the-art emb-MRPT2 based on reference wavefunctions generated via emb-CASSCF remains the method of choice for studying surface reactions. emb-ASCI is useful when large active spaces beyond the limit of emb-CASSCF are essential, such as to study complex surface reactions with significant multiconfigurational character (static correlation) but weak dynamic correlation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Metal–Organic Framework-Based Microfluidic Impedance Sensor Platform for Ultrasensitive Detection of Perfluorooctanesulfonate

The growing global concerns to public health from human exposure to perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) requires rapid, sensitive, in-situ detection where current, state-of-the-art techniques are yet to adequately meet sensitivity and selectivity standards of the real-world. This work presents, for the first time, a synergistic approach for the targeted affinity-based capture of PFOS using a porous sorbent probe that enhances detection sensitivity by embedding it on a microfluidic conductive platform. This novel sorbent-containing platform functions as an electrochemical sensor to directly measure PFOS concentration through a proportional change in electrical response (increase in impedance). The extremely high surface area and pore volume of mesoporous metal-organic framework (MOF) Cr-MIL-101 is used as the probe for targeted PFOS capture based on the affinity of the chromium center towards both the fluorine tail groups as well as the sulfonate functionalities as demonstrated by spectroscopic (NMR and XPS) and microscopic (TEM) studies. Answering the need for an ultrasensitive PFOS detection technique, we are embedding these MOF capture probes inside a microfluidic channel, sandwiched between interdigitated microelectrodes (IDµE). The nanoporous geometry increases the signal to noise ratio of interdigitated microelectrodes tremendously increasing sensitivity; this in combination with the ability of the capture probes to interact with the PFOS at the molecular level and effectively transduce that response electrochemically has allowed us achieve a PFOS detection limit of 0.5 ng/L, which is unprecedented for in-situ analytical PFOS sensors and even comparable to quantification limits achieved using state-of-the-art ex situ techniques.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Peak2Patch: High-Fidelity Functional Group Identification through Attention-Based Fusion of Infrared and Mass Spectra

Identifying molecular structure based on spectroscopic readings is a key task in a variety of chemical and biological applications. Common spectroscopy techniques, such as Infrared (IR) Spectroscopy and Mass Spectrometry (MS), provide detailed information on the structure of molecular compounds but nonetheless require expert-level knowledge to decode. Machine learning has emerged as a potential solution for automating structure prediction from chemical spectra; however, current approaches generally focus on single sensor modalities, neglecting to leverage the complementary information contained within differing spectra. In this paper, we introduce Peak2Patch, a novel approach to fusion-enhanced prediction of functional groups from IR and mass spectra. First, we perform a detailed comparison of backbone networks for encoding both sparse mass spectra and dense IR spectra and demonstrate the superior performance of transformer neural networks over current state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks. Second, we evaluate three broad categories of fusion: early (raw feature), middle (deep feature), and late (decision) fusion, demonstrating the potential of a deep feature fusion-based approach. Lastly, we present Peak2Patch, our attention-based fusion scheme, which leverages cross-attention to mix features between encoded tokens of the two modalities. We validate our approach on a publicly available multimodal spectroscopic data set of 790k simulated molecules, demonstrating a large improvement in functional group prediction over both the previous state-of-the-art and our own strong single-modal baselines.

Jacobson, Philip [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Structure Prediction for Infrasound Propagation Modeling Using Deep Learning

Abstract Infrasound is generated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources. Infrasonic waves travel through the dynamic atmosphere, which can change on the order of minutes to hours. Infrasound propagation largely depends on the wind and temperature structure of the atmosphere. Numerical weather prediction models are available to provide atmospheric specifications, but uncertainties in these models exist and they are computationally expensive to run. Machine learning has proven useful in predicting tropospheric weather using Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) networks. An LSTM network is utilized to make atmospheric specification predictions up to ∼30 km for three different training and testing scenarios: (a) the model is trained and tested using only radiosonde data from the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, (b) the model is trained on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US, excluding the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, which was reserved for testing, and (c) the model is trained and tested on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US. Long Short‐Term Memory predictions are compared to a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis model and show cases where the LSTM outperforms, performs equally as well, or underperforms in comparison to the state‐of‐the‐art. Regional and temporal trends in model performance across the US are also discussed. Results suggest that the LSTM model is a viable tool for predicting atmospheric specifications for infrasound propagation modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗