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NASA NTRS2019

Impact of Assimilating Adaptively Thinned AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances in the GEOS

This work examines the assimilation of AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) radiances from two points of view: the thinning strategy and the use of cloud-cleared radiances as opposed to clear-sky. Previous published work by this team, based on a very large set of Observing System Experiments performed with a 2014 3DVAR version of the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System), has shown that the assimilation of adaptively thinned AIRS cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs) improves the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) without damaging the global forecast skill. The simple adaptive methodology is based on denser AIRS coverage in moving domains centered on TCs, and sparser coverage everywhere else. Subsequent experiments showed that the adaptive methodology produces good results also when applied to clear-sky CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder) and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) radiances. In addition, the results indicate that the density of all hyperspectral data assimilated over meteorologically inactive areas is excessive, probably because of horizontal error correlation, suggesting that the global thinning should be more aggressive. More recent work focused on the polar regions has shown another positive impact of assimilating cloud-cleared AIRS radiances instead of clear-sky. The results show that high latitude atmospheric dynamics is very sensitive to the representation of the lower tropospheric temperature structure over the Arctic region. Specifically, assimilation of CCRs over areas that are data poor and also affected by broken stratus clouds, and as such minimally observed by AIRS clear-sky radiances, changes substantially the temperature structure over the Arctic low troposphere. Ingestion of CCRs over the region propagates, through hydrostatic adjustments, to mid-tropospheric geopotential height, allowing for better prediction of mid-latitude waves. In addition, adaptively thinned CCRs also improve the representation of mesoscale convective cyclones at high latitudes. An example of an Antarctic low is provided. Finally, recent ongoing work with the hybrid 4DenVAR GEOS, investigating the 2017 boreal TC season, has confirmed the previous results: namely that aggressively thinned cloud-cleared radiances improve TC structure with no loss of global skill.

CCR↗

NASA NTRS2019

Improved Ozone Analyses Using Direct Assimilation of 9.6μm Radiances from Hyperspectral Sounders

Previously, hyperspectral sounder brightness temperatures assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS) were limited to assimilating temperature and moisture. The ozone sensitive 9.6 m region is sensed by several hyperspectral sounders including AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder), IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), and CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder). Direct assimilation of brightness temperatures in the 9.6 m region have been operational at ECMWF for several years (Dragani and McNally, 2013; Eresmaa et al., 2017). With this study, similar improvements using the GEOS-ADAS are presented. Channels were selected from available operational subsets evaluating information content and minimizing inter-channel correlation. Additionally, information such as channel selections made by other studies, and vertical sensitivities of ozone and temperature were considered. The analyses produced show improvements verified against ozonesondes taken from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes), and WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center). While care was taken to minimize inter-channel correlation through channel selection, a key feature available in the GEOS-ADAS is the ability to account for correlated error. The importance of inter-channel correlated error is highlighted by performing assimilation experiments with and without inter-channel correlation in the GEOS-ADAS. It is anticipated that inclusion of these ozone sensitive channels will be used to improve NASA GMAO products in the near future.

Karpowicz, Bryan M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Joint Assimilation of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler Data: Towards a Reanalysis of Stratospheric Ozone for Trend Studies

The future trajectory of the stratospheric ozone recovery will be sensitive to greenhouse gas concentrations through thermal control of chemical loss and via stratospheric circulation changes. The latter in particular is subject to considerable uncertainty meriting continuing monitoring of the evolution of ozone throughout the depth of the stratosphere. Atmospheric reanalyses utilize the data assimilation methodology to obtain comprehensive representations of the state of the atmosphere, including its composition, on multidecadal scales by combining diverse measurements from satellite-borne and conventional data sources. Systematic biases among these various data types pose a challenge for assimilation by introducing spurious discontinuities that affect the utility of reanalyses for studies of long-term variability and trends.In this presentation we will outline an approach, developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), that allows joint assimilation of stratospheric ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on EOS Aura and the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) currently flying on the Suomi-NPP satellite with future missions projected into the 2030s. We will demonstrate that a simple offline correction significantly reduces biases between MLS and OMPS-LP ozone data providing a strategy for generating a long-term vertically resolved homogenized representation of stratospheric ozone in future reanalyses. One novel element of our approach compared to previous GMAO reanalysis is the use of a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System model with full stratospheric chemistry. We will show selected comparisons of MLS and OMPS-LP assimilation experiments with independent ozonesonde and satellite data as well as two examples of process-based evaluation focused on the 2016 QBO disruption and Arctic winter ozone loss focusing on the relative performance of the MLS and OMPS-LP analyses.

Wargan, K.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assimilating GCOM-W1 AMSR2 and TRMM TMI Radiance Data in GEOS Analysis and Reanalysis

The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) observed the Earth in lower latitudes between 1997 - 2015. Its conical-scan radiometer has nine channels and measured microwave radiances between 10 and 89 GHz. These data provide information on atmospheric temperature, humidity, clouds, precipitation, as well as sea surface temperature. Radiance data from other microwave radiometers such as Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) onboard various Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites are assimilated in clear-sky conditions in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and its version 2 (MERRA-2) data sets at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The GMAO's Hybrid 4D-EnVar-based Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) is enhanced with an all-sky microwave radiance data assimilation capability in the real-time GEOS-Forward Processing (FP) system. Currently, the FP system assimilates Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) microwave imager (GMI) radiance data utilizing this all-sky capability, and is being extended to use more all-sky data from other microwave radiometers. In this presentation, we will focus on impacts of all-sky TMI radiance data on GEOS analyses of atmospheric moisture, precipitation and other fields, and discuss their applications for future GEOS reanalyses.

Jin, Jianjun↗

NASA NTRS2020

Toward Coupled Data Assimilation in NASA’s GEOS: Developments in the Ocean Context

The Global Modeling & Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA GSFC produces analyses and predictions of the Earth system using various configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and assimilation system. The current sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction system (GEOS-S2S) is based on a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice configuration of GEOS which includes the Modular Ocean Model version 5 (MOM5) run at approximately 50-km resolution and a de-coupled OI-based ocean analysis that uses an initialization of MOM5 forced by the MERRA-2 reanalysis. GMAO will soon implement an updated GEOS-S2S system that will run at 25-km resolution and adopt aspects of the hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational (H4DEnVar) system already running in the production-version atmospheric analysis system, including a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to provide initial conditions for the oceanic state. This presentation will focus on developments to sustain the GMAO's systems on longer time horizons, where more radical transformations will be required to adapt to advanced computing environments, higher resolution and more diverse model components, and new observations for the Earth system. Results will describe progress toward a version of the GEOS coupled system that will be based around the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework being developed within Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) and include an updated ocean model, MOM6. Discussion will focus specifically on the use of a Unified Forward Operator (UFO) for simulating observations and the Object Oriented Prediction System (OOPS) for providing the state estimate. These features are being developed as a multi-agency effort under the auspices of the JCSDA and are being adopted in the GMAO for all its applications of coupled data assimilation including S2S, numerical weather prediction, and reanalysis.

Mahajan, Rahul↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Air Pollution In the Middle East Using MERRA-2, CAMS Data Assimilation Products, and High-Resolution WRF-Chem Model Simulations

Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v.2 (MERRA-2), Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Operational Analysis (CAMS-OA), and a high-resolution regional Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to evaluate natural and anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) air pollution in the Middle East (ME) during 2015–2016. Two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) retrievals – combined product Deep Blue and Deep Target (MODIS-DB&DT) and Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) – and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations as well as in situ PM measurements for 2016 were used for validation of the WRF-Chem output and both assimilation products. MERRA-2 and CAMS-OA assimilate AOD observations. WRF-Chem is a free-running model, but dust emission in WRF-Chem is tuned to fit AOD and aerosol volume size distributions obtained from AERONET. MERRA-2 was used to construct WRF-Chem initial and boundary conditions both for meteorology and chemical and aerosol species. SO2 emissions in WRF-Chem are based on the novel OMI-HTAP SO2 emission dataset. The correlation with the AERONET AOD is highest for MERRA-2 (0.72–0.91), MAIAC (0.63–0.96), and CAMSOA (0.65–0.87), followed by MODIS-DB&DT (0.56–0.84) and WRF-Chem (0.43–0.85). However, CAMS-OA has a relatively high positive mean bias with respect to AERONET AOD. The spatial distributions of seasonally averaged AODs from WRF-Chem, assimilation products, and MAIAC are well correlated with MODIS-DB&DT AOD product. MAIAC has the highest correlation (R = 0.8), followed by MERRA-2 (R = 0.66), CAMS-OA (R = 0.65), and WRF-Chem (R = 0.61). WRF-Chem, MERRA-2, and MAIAC underestimate and CAMS-OA overestimates MODIS-DB&DT AOD. The simulated and observed PM concentrations might differ by a factor of 2 because it is more challenging for the model and the assimilation products to reproduce PM concentration measured within the city. Although aerosol fields in WRF-Chem and assimilation products are entirely consistent, WRF-Chem is preferable for analysis of regional air quality over the ME due to its higher spatial resolution and better SO2 emissions. The WRF-Chem’s PM background concentrations exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines over the entire ME. Mineral dust is the major contributor to PM (≈ 75%–95%) compared to other aerosol types. Near and downwind from the SO2 emission sources, non-dust aerosols (primarily sulfate) contribute up to 30% to PM(sub 2.5). The contribution of sea salt to PM in coastal regions can reach 5%. The contributions of organic matter, black carbon and organic carbon to PM over the Middle East are insignificant. In the major cities over the Arabian Peninsula, the 90th percentile of PM(sub 10) and PM(sub 2.5) (particles with diameters less than 10 and 2.5 μm, respectively) daily mean surface concentrations exceed the corresponding Kingdom of Saudi Arabia air quality limits. The contribution of the non-dust component to PM(sub 2.5) is < 25%, which limits the emission control effect on air quality. The mitigation of the dust effect on air quality requires the development of environment-based approaches like growing tree belts around the cities and enhancing in-city vegetation cover. The WRF-Chem configuration presented in this study could be a prototype of a future air quality forecast system that warns the population against air pollution hazards.

Alexander Ukhov↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of New Radio Occultation Measurements at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Recent advances at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have focused on the assimilation of additional radio occultation (RO) bending angle measurements in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system. These efforts targeted the GEOS near-real-time forward processing system and may serve as the backbone for the next atmospheric reanalysis of the 21st century. In the most recent system upgrade, the assimilated RO counts increased by a factor of four with the addition of the COSMIC-2 constellation. Furthermore, with the advent of near-real-time commercial RO measurements, even more growth is expected. This presentation will quantify the impacts of new public and commercially-sourced data available to the GEOS system. The RO data assimilated in these experiments are from both the routinely acquired operational data streams as well as those from Spire Global, Inc. available via the Commercial SmallSat Data Acquisition (CSDA) Program.

Will McCarty↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilating microwave cloudy observations into NASA GEOS model using a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo technique

Despite the importance of clouds and their influence on atmospheric water and energy balance, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers systematically exclude cloud information from the assimilation process and only assimilate clear-sky radiances (Janiskov´a et al. 2012). In order to ensure that only clear sky radiances are assimilated, strict cloud detection thresholds are applied before radiances are fed into data assimilation (DA) systems. This process not only excludes a large portion of satellite radiances, but causes loss of information in the regions that are of high interest to meteorologists and are most challenging for weather forecasts (Errico et al. 2007; Haddad et al. 2015). Although, in recent years there has been great advances in the operational weather forecasting, the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), especially the intensity of TCs, remains challenging. According to Aksoy et al. (2013), in addition to the model deficiencies, another important factor that contributes to this challenge includes lack of observations in the peripheral environment (rain- bands) of TCs mainly because of the selective assimilation of existing observations. Satellite observations provide more than 90 % of the input data for the initialization of NWP models but more than 75 % of satellite observations are discarded due to the cloud contamination as well as land, snow, and ice emissivity issues (Bauer et al. 2010).

Rainband↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Radiances from the Cloud-Clearing Methodology: Results from the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season

Assimilation of cloud-affected radiances has the potential to dramatically improve numerical weather prediction systems, as has already been widely shown by use of all-sky microwave radiances. Assimilation of cloudy infrared (IR) radiances, however, lags far behind and only clear-sky radiances are used operationally, leaving data voids in dynamically sensitive areas, such as around tropical cyclones. This team has previously shown the positive benefit of assimilating cloud-cleared IR radiances from hyperspectral sensors (CCRs) and in this work applies the cloud-clearing methodology to generate fully customizable CCRs using an algorithm designed to be portable and reduce latency. These data are successfully assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season.

E L Mcgrath-Spangler↗

NASA NTRS2022

Towards Effective Drought Monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) Region: Implications From Assimilating Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture Into the Noah-Mp Land Surface Model for Morocco

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced more frequent and severe drought events in recent decades, leading to increasingly pressing concerns over already strained food and water security. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is thus critical to support risk mitigation and management by countries in the region. Here we investigate the potential for assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture observations to improve the representation of the overall hydrological and carbon cycles and drought by an advanced land surface model. The results reveal that assimilating soil moisture does not meaningfully improve model representation of the hydrological and biospheric processes for this region, but instead it degrades the simulation of the interannual variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon fluxes, mainly due to model weaknesses in representing prognostic phenology. However, assimilating LAI leads to greater improvement, especially for transpiration and carbon fluxes, by constraining the timing of simulated vegetation growth response to evolving climate conditions. LAI assimilation also helps to correct for the erroneous interaction between the prognostic phenology and irrigation during summertime, effectively reducing a large positive bias in ET and carbon fluxes. Independently assimilating LAI or soil moisture alters the categorization of drought, with the differences being greater for more severe drought categories. We highlight the vegetation representation in response to changing land use and hydroclimate as one of the key processes to be captured for building a successful drought early warning system for the MENA region.

Wanshu Nie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Data Assimilation on the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

The role of soil moisture in the evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land has long been recognized. Dry land surface conditions can lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions can help sustain or even re-intensify a TC. The ability to forecast post-landfall TC evolution and mitigate the associated socio-economic impact thus hinges on accurate knowledge of land surface conditions prior to landfall. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides accurate observations of soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has been shown that the assimilation of SMAPbrightness temperatures (Tb) significantly improves modeled land surface states and thus has the potential to constrain land surface initial conditions in TC forecasts. In this presentation, we investigate this potential through an extensive set of Observing System Experiments that systematically assess the impact of assimilating SMAP Tbs on TC forecast skill in the Goddard Earth Observing System. Focusing on the case of TC Idai, we show that the assimilation of SMAP generally leads to a drier soil moisture analysis for the land surface underneath much of the storm’s circulation. An exception is the direct TC track, where SMAP assimilation increases soil moisture. These changes are reflected in the surface fluxes, which propagate the land surface state changes to the atmosphere. This results a TC that is overall weaker with lower winds, but with a better-defined eye and a slightly smaller track error than a simulation without SMAP DA. The changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of SMAP also impact the total precipitation amounts as well as the precipitation structure associated with TC Idai.

SMAP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Generalized, Compactly-Supported Correlation Function for Data Assimilation Applications

Correlation functions play an essential role in modern data assimilation, where they are used to model covariances given a set of tunable parameters or applied as tapering functions to localize covariances in ensemble-based schemes. One of the most widely-used correlation functions in data assimilation is the Gaspari and Cohn (1999) piecewise-rational, compactly-supported parametric correlation function (hereafter referred to as GC99). The GC99 correlation function is useful due to its tunable cut-off parameter c and Gaussian-like shape achieved when the parameter a is set to one-half. These properties are attractive for tapering functions in data assimilation applications. However, the GC99 correlation function is homogeneous over Euclidean 3-space and isotropic when restricted to the sphere, properties that may be less than ideal for some geophysical applications. GC99 is also compactly-supported on a sphere of fixed radius, which requires tuning of the cut-off parameter c that can depend on the specific application. This work presents a generalization of the GC99 correlation function that allows the cut-off parameter c and shape parameter a to vary over space to gain more flexibility in shape while maintaining its compact support property. The function, which we call the Generalized Gaspari Cohn (GenGC) correlation function, introduces inhomogeneity in Euclidean 3-space and anisotropy when restricted to the sphere by allowing both parameters c and a to vary, as functions, over the spatial domain. The GC99 correlation function is a special case of GenGC where the functions c and a are held constant, as fixed parameters rather than functions. The GenGC correlation function also generalizes the follow-on to the work of Gaspari and Cohn (1999) presented in Gaspari et al. (2006), which allowed a to vary while keeping c fixed. We illustrate through simple one- and two-dimensional examples the variety of inhomogeneous and anisotropic correlation functions GenGC can produce by varying c and a over space, and suggest applications where they may be useful in data assimilation, such as covariance modeling or localization. In particular, we describe how the GenGC correlation function can be used to construct covariances using correlation length and variance fields derived from dynamics. For example, the correlation length field for advective dynamics is governed by a partial differential equation (PDE) in N spatial dimensions, where N is the number of space dimensions of the state. Correlation length fields can be determined from this PDE and used with GenGC to construct the corresponding correlations. We can then approximate the full covariance by rescaling by the variance, which also satisfies a PDE in N spatial dimensions for advective dynamics. Thus we can approximate the full covariance without solving the covariance PDE, which is in 2N spatial dimensions, by solving just two PDEs each in only N spatial dimensions. This approach to evolving the correlation length and variance fields, then reconstructing the correlations using GenGC, is suggested as an alternative to current methods of covariance modeling in data assimilation algorithms.

GC99↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Developments in the Assimilation of Microwave and Radar Observations Into NWP Models

Microwave observations play a very important role in improving the weather forecasts. Although these observations are routinely assimilated into NWP models in clear-sky conditions, assimilation of all-sky microwave observations is very limited. Two main factors contributing to this limitation are inaccuracy in the input cloud and hydrometeor profiles used as input to the radiative transfer model and also error in scattering calculations performed by the radiative transfer model itself. The Mie theory is used by many fast RT models to estimate the optical properties of single particles. The Mie theory assumes spherical shapes for ice or snow particles with mixture of air and ice. However, hydrometeors scattering radiation at microwave frequencies have different shapes, sizes, and orientations. Therefore, using Mie theory to determine their optical properties leads to large uncertainties in all-sky radiative transfer calculations. The discrete dipole approximation (DDA) which approximates the optical properties of large objects in terms of discrete dipoles has shown promise in calculating the scattering properties of particles with different shapes in the microwave frequencies. This presentation focuses on recent advancements in the CRTM scattering calculations for frozen hydrometeors in the microwave frequencies using the DDA technique. In addition to using stand-alone CRTM calculations using collocated ATMS and reanalysis profiles, the data assimilation experiments conducted using the NOAA FV3GFS forecast system are used to evaluate the scattering improvements. Additionally, the backscattering information from the DDA database was used to implement a radar simulator into CRTM. The radar operator takes advantage of CRTM different modules to calculate clouds absorption and scattering properties. In addition to the forward model both adjoint and tangent linear of the radar simulator are implemented and evaluated as well. The radar simulator is currently being tested within the JEDI/GEOS data assimilation framework to facilitate the assimilation of radar measurements such as CloudSat CPR and GPM DPR into the NASA GEOS model.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward Improving the Assimilation of IASI and CrIS Radiances Over Land Into the NASA GEOS: LST Inversion and Validation

Assimilating surface-sensitive radiances over land is still challenging for both infrared (IR) and microwave (WV) essentially because of the large uncertainties of the land physical surface emissivity model used in the CRTM and the uncertainties of land surface state properties. Currently very few IR radiances are assimilated over land in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). Large number of radiances are rejected by the emissivity sensitivity check as well as the Cloud detection check. This study focuses on enhancing the assimilation of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) over land in the GEOS forecasting and data assimilation framework. To reach this goal, the Land surface Temperature (LST) is first inverted using IR radiances from IASI and CrIS selected channels to use it as surface boundary parameter for the assimilation of the rest of IASI and CrIS surface-sensitive channels. This work will present a full assessment of the quality of this LST by comparing it and its spatio-temporal variability to LST predicted by the GEOS model. The impacts on the quality of the resulting analysis and subsequent forecast will also be discussed.

Niama Boukachaba↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observation impacts in the lower troposphere and challenges of Planetary Boundary Layer data assimilation

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) developed by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office assimilates a wide range of observations to support various NASA Earth Science missions. To set the stage for follow-on Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) science and prepare for future observing systems of the next decade, we have assessed the effectiveness of the use of existing observing systems in the lower troposphere in GEOS, and analyzed model responses to the incremental analysis update (IAU) forcing. With a better understanding of the GEOS data assimilation algorithms in the PBL, we have developed strategies for improved PBL data assimilation in GEOS. The strategies to enhance data usages in both the data assimilation system and forecast model will be presented, and the utilization of PBL height data from multiple observing systems will be discussed as well.

Yanqiu Zhu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Reconstructed Radiances from IASI Principal Component Scores into the GEOS-ADAS

Hyperspectral Infrared sounders such as IASI, AIRS, and CrIS have long been an integral part of radiance assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP), providing vertical profiles of water vapor and temperature information. Principal Component Scores (PCS) are a lossy form of compression that retains most information, such as temperature and moisture, by using a large training set of atmospheric profiles. However, PCS may not well represent profiles which are rare events, such as volcanic eruptions, and drops some sources of random noise. There has been an increased interest in the use of PCS as EUMETSAT plans to distribute future geostationary sounder radiances from MTG-IRS via PCS only. NWP centers use two approaches to deal with PCS: direct assimilation of the PCS by modifying the radiative transfer model to produce PCS and the associated Jacobians, or a simpler approach of decompressing the PCS and reconstructing the radiances back into channel space to allow assimilating radiances without modifications to the data assimilation system. EUMETSAT has developed a PCS product for IASI that has been operational since 2011. We utilize this product opting for the simpler approach, decompressing IASI PCS into channel space, and assimilating those radiances using the GEOS-ADAS. We then compare this with a control using the standard IASI radiance product. Resulting differences in global forecast statistics, differences in Forecast Sensitivity to Observation Impact, along with implications for implementation and quality control are discussed.

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Aerosol Data Assimilation and Forecasts in the NASA GEOS Model during the ASIA-AQ Campaign

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses significant risks to human health and the environment by penetrating the lungs and causing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, making it crucial to understand its sources and behavior for effective air quality management. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Forward Processing (FP) system model, operated by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, provides real-time weather and aerosol analyses and forecasts. In addition to meteorological data assimilation, the GEOS-FP system also assimilates aerosol using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD data. In this study, the aerosol data assimilation and forecasts performance of the GEOS-FP model were evaluated for predicting PM2.5 in Korea using observations from the Airborne and Satellite Investigation of Asian Air Quality (ASIA-AQ) campaign. The ASIA-AQ campaign, an international collaborative field study initiative, aims to enhance understanding of local air quality issues and address common challenges in interpreting satellite data and air quality modeling. Conducted in South Korea from February 15 to March 13, 2024, during the high PM2.5 concentration winter season, this campaign provided extensive airborne and ground observations for intensive analysis of PM2.5 model simulations. We demonstrate how the assimilation runs and the forecasting performance of PM2.5 at 24-hour and 48-hour intervals vary. Additionally, we analyzed the differences and characteristics of PM2.5 composition in cases of long-range transport and local emissions. Using ASIA-AQ airborne data, we also examined the vertical profile of fine particulate matter. Through the intensive observations of this campaign, the GEOS model was assessed over South Korea using both in situ and airborne measurements to establish a baseline and identify priorities for future development.

Seunghee Lee↗

NASA NTRS2013

Connecting Satellite Observations with Water Cycle Variables Through Land Data Assimilation: Examples Using the NASA GEOS-5 LDAS

A land data assimilation system (LDAS) can merge satellite observations (or retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, satellite observations do not correspond directly to the water cycle variables of interest. The present paper addresses various aspects of this seeming mismatch using examples drawn from recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-5 LDAS. These aspects include (1) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (2) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (3) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based soil moisture and snow assimilation, and (4) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable that is not observed (such as root zone soil moisture). The solution to these challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.

Land data assimilation↗