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At least 307 records · Page 17

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraining chaos: Enforcing dynamical invariants in the training of reservoir computers

Drawing on ergodic theory, we introduce a novel training method for machine learning based forecasting methods for chaotic dynamical systems. The training enforces dynamical invariants—such as the Lyapunov exponent spectrum and the fractal dimension—in the systems of interest, enabling longer and more stable forecasts when operating with limited data. The technique is demonstrated in detail using reservoir computing, a specific kind of recurrent neural network. Finally, results are given for the Lorenz 1996 chaotic dynamical system and a spectral quasi-geostrophic model of the atmosphere, both typical test cases for numerical weather prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Observed Land Surface Influence on Atmospheric Heat and Moisture Profiles During Interstorms

Land-atmospheric (L-A) feedbacks have historically been studied using models whose structure and parameterizations influence outcomes and insights. The representation of L-A feedbacks based on observations alone remains an ongoing challenge for understanding boundary layer development and precipitation. To address this gap, we use ground-based passive remote sensing and in-situ observations to present an analysis of the atmosphere during 103 interstorm soil moisture drydown events spanning nine warm seasons (2016–2024) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains region. By separating events based on local L-A coupling signals and characterizing the profiles of atmospheric heat and moisture to surface energy flux behavior, we investigate the physical mechanisms linking land surface processes to boundary layer development. We find that during interstorm drydowns, the atmospheric column follows a consistent pattern: moisture increases within the boundary layer, peaks near its top, and declines rapidly above, while warming occurs through the depth. Drydowns that shift toward evaporation produce stronger and deeper thermodynamic responses than cases dominated by sensible heating, which are weaker and shallower. Additionally, moisture is accumulated faster within the boundary layer during shorter drydowns, with longer drydowns representing slower, moisture-limited growth. Drydowns with wetter initial soil moisture will sustain stronger moistening within and above the boundary layer, accelerating buoyancy growth and convective potential toward the next storm. These results provide observational evidence linking surface flux evolution to boundary layer thermodynamics and offer a process-level benchmark for evaluating coupled L-A representations in models and demonstrating the influence of soil moisture on short-term weather forecasting skill.

Zhang, M. S. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M↗

How Generalizable is a Machine-Learning Approach for Modeling Hub-Height Turbulence Intensity?

Hub-height turbulence intensity is essential for a variety of wind energy applications. However, simulating it is a challenging task. Simple analytical models have been proposed in the literature, but they all come with significant limitations. Even state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model, currently struggle to predict hub-height turbulence intensity. Here, we propose a machine-learning-based approach to predict hub-height turbulence intensity from other hub-height and ground-level atmospheric measurements, using observations from the Perdigao field campaign and the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory. We consider a random forest regression model, which we validate first at the site used for training and then under a more robust round-robin approach, and compare its performance to a multivariate linear regression. The random forest successfully outperforms the linear regression in modeling hub-height turbulence intensity, with a normalized root-mean-square error as low as 0.014 when using 30-minute average data. In order to achieve such low root-mean-square error values, the knowledge of hub-height turbulence kinetic energy (which can instead be modeled in the Weather Research and Forecasting model) is needed. Interestingly, we find that the performance of the random forest generalizes well when considering a round-robin validation (i.e., when the algorithm is trained at one site such as Perdigao or Southern Great Plains) and then applied to model hub-height turbulence intensity at the other location.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a complete cycle typically lasting almost 2.5 years, this quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is arguably the most predictable mode of atmospheric variability that is not linked to the changing seasons. Here, the QBO affects climate phenomena outside the tropical stratosphere, including ozone transport, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and its high predictability could enable better forecasts of these phenomena if models can accurately represent the coupling processes. Climate and forecasting models are increasingly able to simulate stratospheric oscillations resembling the QBO, but exhibit common systematic errors such as weak amplitude in the lowermost tropical stratosphere. Uncertainties about the waves that force the oscillation, particularly the momentum fluxes from small-scale gravity waves excited by deep convection, make its simulation challenging. Improved representation of the processes governing the QBO is expected to lead to better forecasts of the oscillation and its impacts, increased understanding of unusual events such as the two QBO disruptions observed since 2016, and more reliable future projections of QBO behaviour under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Contribution of Subtropical Moisture Within an Atmospheric River on Moisture Flux, Cloud Structure, and Precipitation Over the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho Using Moisture Tracers

The impact of an atmospheric river (AR) on the flux of subtropical moisture across Idaho's Salmon River Mountains and precipitation over the mountains is evaluated using the Weather, Research, and Forecasting model with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT). The AR impacted Idaho between 17 and 19 January 2017 during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) campaign. WRF-WVT is configured to isolate the subtropical moisture contribution to the AR, the moisture flux, and precipitation. Subtropical water vapor advected by the AR into Idaho is tagged and tracked in three-dimensional space throughout the run. This allows the contribution of the subtropical moisture to the vertical distribution of water vapor and the precipitation to be directly calculated. The simulated cloud structure is compared with airborne radar data collected during two SNOWIE intensive operation periods. This study found that more than 70% of the moisture flux and more than 80% of the precipitation across the Idaho Mountains during SNOWIE IOP 4 could be attributed to subtropical moisture within the AR. Nearly all of the moisture flux in the upper cloud and 50% of the moisture in the lower cloud was attributable to the subtropical moisture. The subtropical moisture contribution within the AR to precipitation ranged from 35% in northern Idaho to more than 90% in southern Idaho. Across the entire period of impact of the AR, more than 60% of precipitation in Idaho was attributable to the subtropical moisture within the AR, with this percentage increasing toward the south across the state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How do North American weather regimes drive wind energy at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales?

Abstract There has been an increasing need for forecasting power generation at the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales to support the operation, management, and planning of the wind-energy system. At the S2S timescales, atmospheric variability is largely related to recurrent and persistent weather patterns, referred to as weather regimes (WRs). In this study, we identify four WRs that influence wind resources over North America using a universal two-stage procedure approach. These WRs are responsible for large-scale wind and power production anomalies over the CONUS at the S2S timescales. The WR-based reconstruction explains up to 40% of the monthly variance of power production over the western United States, and the explanatory power of WRs generally increases with the increase of timescales. The identified relationship between WRs and power production reveals the potential and limitations of the regional WR-based wind resource assessment over different regions of the CONUS across multiple timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simons Observatory: Constraining inflationary gravitational waves with multitracer B-mode delensing

We introduce and validate a delensing framework for the Simons Observatory (SO), which will be used to improve constraints on inflationary gravitational waves by reducing the lensing noise in measurements of the B modes in CMB polarization. SO will initially observe CMB by using three small aperture telescopes and one large-aperture telescope. While polarization maps from small-aperture telescopes will be used to constrain inflationary gravitational waves, the internal CMB lensing maps used to delens will be reconstructed from data from the large-aperture telescope. Since lensing maps obtained from the SO data will be noise dominated on subdegree scales, the SO lensing framework constructs a template for lensing-induced B modes by combining internal CMB lensing maps with maps of the cosmic infrared background from Planck as well as galaxy density maps from the LSST survey. We construct a likelihood for constraining the tensor-to-scalar ratio r that contains auto and cross spectra between observed B modes and the lensing B-mode template. We test our delensing analysis pipeline on map-based simulations containing survey nonidealities, but that, for this initial exploration, does not include contamination from Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds. We find that the SO survey masking and inhomogeneous and atmospheric noise have very little impact on the delensing performance, and the r constraint becomes σ(r)≈0.0015 which is close to that obtained from the idealized forecasts in the absence of the Galactic foreground and is nearly a factor of 2 tighter than without delensing. We also find that uncertainties in the external large-scale structure tracers used in our multitracer delensing pipeline lead to bias much smaller than the 1σ statistical uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Characterizing Overwater High Ozone Events in the Houston–Galveston–Brazoria Region during the 2021 GO3 and TRACER-AQ Campaigns

Photochemical modeling outputs showing high ozone concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay during ozone episodes in the Houston–Galveston–Brazoria (HGB) region have not been previously verified using in situ observations. Such data were collected systematically, for the first time, from July to October 2021 from three boats deployed for the Galveston Offshore Ozone Observations (GO3) and Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment—Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) field campaigns. A pontoon boat and a commercial vessel operated in Galveston Bay, while another commercial vessel operated in the Gulf of Mexico offshore of Galveston. All three boats had continuously operating sampling systems that included ozone analyzers and weather stations, and the two boats operating in Galveston Bay had a ceilometer. The sampling systems operated autonomously on the two commercial boats as they traveled their daily routes. Thirty-seven ozonesondes were launched over water on forecast high ozone days in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. During the campaigns, multiple periods of ozone exceeding 100 ppbv were observed over water in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. These events included previously identified conditions for high ozone events in the HGB region, such as the bay/sea-breeze recirculation and postfrontal environments, as well as a localized coastal high ozone event after the passing of a tropical system (Hurricane Nicholas) that was not well forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Raindrop Breakup Parameterizations Using Disdrometer Observations

In this work, an intercomparison of raindrop mean diameter frequency distribution (RDFD) is performed for numerical simulations of precipitating cloud systems using an array of models and microphysics schemes. This includes results from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) double-moment microphysics, the Hebrew University Cloud Model bin microphysics (HUCM) interfaced to the RAMS parent model, and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the Thompson, Morrison, double-moment 6-class (WDM6), and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) double-moment schemes. Simulations are examined with respect to the raindrop size distribution (DSD) volume-number mean diameter (D m ) and intercept parameter (N w ). When compared to a suite of disdrometer observations, the RDFD resulting from each microphysics scheme exhibits varying degrees of mean drop size constraints and peaks in the frequency distribution of D m . A more detailed investigation of the peaked RDFD from the RAMS simulations suggests that the parameterization of raindrop collisional breakup can impose strong limitations on the evolution of simulated drop growth. As such, a summary and comparison of the drop breakup parameterizations among the aforementioned microphysics schemes is presented. While some drop breakup parameterizations are adjusted toward the observations by modifying the threshold diameter for the onset of breakup, this study explores the use of a modified maximum breakup efficiency. This method permits the parameterization to retain its threshold breakup diameter, while limiting the strength of drop breakup and permitting a broader range of drop sizes. As a result, the simulated mean drop sizes are in better agreement with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of coupled wind-wave model simulations of offshore winds in the Mid-Atlantic Bight using lidar-equipped buoys.

From 2014 to 2017, two Department of Energy buoys equipped with Doppler lidar were deployed off the U.S. East Coast to provide long term measurements of hub-height wind speed in the marine environment. In this study, we performed simulations of selected cases from the deployment using a 5-km configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to see if simulated hub height speeds could produce closer agreement with the observations than existing reanalysis products. For each case we performed two additional simulations: one in which marine surface roughness height was one-way coupled to forecast wave parameters from a standalone WaveWatch III (WW3) simulation, and another in which WRF and WW3 were two-way coupled using the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport (COAWST) framework. It was found that all the 5-km WRF simulations improved 90-m wind speed statistics for the tropical cyclone case of 08 May 2015 and the cold frontal case of 25 Mar 2016, but not the nor-easter of 18 Jan 2016. The impact of wave coupling on buoy-level (4 m) wind speed was modest and case dependent, but when present, the impact was typically seen at 90 m as well, being as large as 10% in stable conditions. One-way wave coupling consistently reduced wind speeds, improving biases for 25 Mar 2016 but worsening them for 08 May 2015. Two-way wave coupling mitigated these negative biases, improved wave field representation and statistics, and mostly improved 4-m wind field correlation coefficients, at least at the VA buoy, largely due to greater self-consistency between wind and wave fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux US-GL1 Stannard Rock

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock. Site Description - Stannard Rock is located 39 km from the nearest shore (Keweenaw Peninsula) in Lake Superior, 44 miles NNE of Marquette, Michigan, and 24 miles ESE of Manitou Island. The site is located on the historic Stannard Rock Lighthouse, which was completed in 1882. Eddy covariance instrumentation was installed in 2008 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada, eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community. The eddy covariance station along with other ancillary meteorological instrumentation is located at an approximate elevation of 39.2 meters above mean lake water level. Meteorological data from the lighthouse are sent to the National Data Buoy Center, where they can be viewed in real-time at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=stdm4 Uncorrected half-hour fluxes were computed directly on the logger using a 30-minute block averaging period as high-frequency data were not available. The half hour flux measurements downloaded from the datalogger were post-processed with the following filters and corrections. Latent and sensible heat and carbon dioxide fluxes were corrected with 2-D coordinate rotation. Although the primary objective of data collection at Stannard Rock was to quantify the evaporative flux, additional preliminary measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration and flux from the LI-7500 are also included in this dataset but it is advised to use the carbon data with caution. Carbon data reported in this dataset includes turbulent fluxes of CO2 with no storage correction (FC, µmol m-2 s-1) and CO2 density in mole fraction of wet air (CO2), which was originally output on the datalogger as average CO2 density (mg m-2 s-1) and converted into µmol mol-1 using air temperature and pressure in post-processing. Webb, Pearman, and Leuning terms were applied to account for density fluctuations for water vapor and CO2. Sonic path length, high-frequency attenuation and sensor separation were accounted for according to Horst and Massman, and the oxygen absorption correction for the KH2O hygrometer was also applied. Latent and sensible heat fluxes were assumed to be unrealistic above an absolute value of 1000 W m-2 and were removed. Both carbon flux (FC) and carbon dioxide mole fraction in wet air (CO2) and were assumed to be unrealistic above 1000 µmol m-2 s-1 and 1000 µmol mol-1 respectively. Spikes in latent and sensible heat and carbon fluxes and densities (often due to periods of precipitation) were identified by computing the mean and standard deviation over a moving, overlapping window of 336 half-hours (7 days), similar to Shao et al., and were removed when the flux was more than 1.5 standard deviations from the moving window’s mean. While Vickers and Mahrt use a threshold of 3.5 standard deviations from the mean, a conservative value of 1.5 was chosen due to the noisy nature of over-lake data at this particular site. This process was repeated twice for latent and sensible heat, and carbon dioxide fluxes and densities and therefore it is possible that some real, realistic data was filtered out in this process. No detrending was performed. As per AmeriFlux standards, no friction velocity (USTAR, m s-1) filtering was performed.

Spence, Chris↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-GL1 Stannard Rock

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Stannard Rock is located 39 km from the nearest shore (Keweenaw Peninsula) in Lake Superior, 44 miles NNE of Marquette, Michigan, and 24 miles ESE of Manitou Island. The site is located on the historic Stannard Rock Lighthouse, which was completed in 1882. Eddy covariance instrumentation was installed in 2008 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada, eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community. The eddy covariance station along with other ancillary meteorological instrumentation is located at an approximate elevation of 39.2 meters above mean lake water level. Meteorological data from the lighthouse are sent to the National Data Buoy Center, where they can be viewed in real-time at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=stdm4 Uncorrected half-hour fluxes were computed directly on the logger using a 30-minute block averaging period as high-frequency data were not available. The half hour flux measurements downloaded from the datalogger were post-processed with the following filters and corrections. Latent and sensible heat and carbon dioxide fluxes were corrected with 2-D coordinate rotation. Although the primary objective of data collection at Stannard Rock was to quantify the evaporative flux, additional preliminary measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration and flux from the LI-7500 are also included in this dataset but it is advised to use the carbon data with caution. Carbon data reported in this dataset includes turbulent fluxes of CO2 with no storage correction (FC, µmol m-2 s-1) and CO2 density in mole fraction of wet air (CO2), which was originally output on the datalogger as average CO2 density (mg m-2 s-1) and converted into µmol mol-1 using air temperature and pressure in post-processing. Webb, Pearman, and Leuning terms were applied to account for density fluctuations for water vapor and CO2. Sonic path length, high-frequency attenuation and sensor separation were accounted for according to Horst and Massman, and the oxygen absorption correction for the KH2O hygrometer was also applied. Latent and sensible heat fluxes were assumed to be unrealistic above an absolute value of 1000 W m-2 and were removed. Both carbon flux (FC) and carbon dioxide mole fraction in wet air (CO2) and were assumed to be unrealistic above 1000 µmol m-2 s-1 and 1000 µmol mol-1 respectively. Spikes in latent and sensible heat and carbon fluxes and densities (often due to periods of precipitation) were identified by computing the mean and standard deviation over a moving, overlapping window of 336 half-hours (7 days), similar to Shao et al., and were removed when the flux was more than 1.5 standard deviations from the moving window’s mean. While Vickers and Mahrt use a threshold of 3.5 standard deviations from the mean, a conservative value of 1.5 was chosen due to the noisy nature of over-lake data at this particular site. This process was repeated twice for latent and sensible heat, and carbon dioxide fluxes and densities and therefore it is possible that some real, realistic data was filtered out in this process. No detrending was performed. As per AmeriFlux standards, no friction velocity (USTAR, m s-1) filtering was performed.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

AmeriFlux CA-GL3 Long Point

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL3 Long Point. Site Description - Long Point Lighthouse is located at the end of Long Point on Lake Erie. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, completed in 1916, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2012 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

AmeriFlux CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse. Site Description - Nine Mile Lighthouse is located at the south end of Simcoe Island on Lake Ontario. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, built in 1833, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2016 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

Wind and Weather Variability within the Californian Offshore Wind Energy Areas

Weather variability over the Northeast Pacific (NEP) region and its influence on wind resources within the Californian offshore wind energy areas (WEAs) at Humboldt and Morro Bay are characterized using 20-years reanalysis model and satellite data. The hub-height (180 m) winds at both locations are predominantly northwesterly driven by the NEP high pressure system, with strong coastal gradients in surface pressure, fluxes, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depths and cloudiness. These sharp coastal gradients and strong annual cycles of temperature and moisture advections pose potential challenges in accurately modeling the local wind resource. Hub-height wind speeds and power capacity factors significantly vary for different regimes of PBL depths, surface fluxes and rain area fractions. This highlights the importance of studying the physical mechanisms driving these weather regimes, hence our analysis of how large-scale NEP weather variability drives the local meteorology at the WEAs. Furthermore, at both WEAs, PBL tops and cloud boundaries intersect the rotor layer (80-280 m) more than 30% and 20% of the time, respectively. While PBL depths significantly modulates hub-height winds and power, cloud boundaries do not have a similar impact, likely due to reanalysis errors in simulating cloud boundaries accurately. These findings underscore the challenges in deploying tall wind turbines in shallow cloudy boundary layers, where the interaction between clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric layers can impact turbine efficiency. As turbines grow taller and are deployed in more complex meteorological conditions, understanding these interactions is crucial for improving wind power forecasting and optimizing energy production in coastal regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Understanding the Role of Tropical Moisture in Atmospheric Rivers

There has been a long-standing debate about whether tropical moisture export (TME) or local moisture convergence play the dominant role in the development and strength of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). In this work, we quantify the contribution of TME to 29 simulated extreme ARs that affected the U.S. Northwest Coast by “tagging” tropical moisture using water vapor tracers in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. From a case study with strong TME, we find three mechanisms by which TME can contribute to AR strength: direct contribution of moisture, indirect contributions via thermodynamic feedbacks and indirect contributions via synoptic-scale dynamic feedbacks. Focusing on these processes, we divide the 29 simulated ARs into two groups (>25% of TME contribution to inland precipitation as TME-ARs and <25% as NTME-ARs) and find that TME-ARs are characterized by stronger pre-cold-frontal low-level jets and stronger warm air advection. Notably, the ARs with the greatest 2-day precipitation are found to be TME-ARs but with <50% TME contributions, indicating a more dominant role of indirect enhancement of local moisture convergence due to TME than the direct moisture contribution supplying precipitation.

Hu, Huancui↗