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305 records · Page 17

Discovery of an Extremely Short Duration Flare from Proxima Centauri Using Millimeter through Far-ultraviolet Observations

We present the discovery of an extreme flaring event from Proxima Cen by the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder(ASKAP), Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array(ALMA), Hubble Space Telescope(HST),Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite(TESS), and the du Pont Telescope that occurred on 2019 May 1. In the millimeter and FUV, this flare is the brightest ever detected, brightening by a factor of>1000 and>14,000 as seen by ALMA and HST, respectively. The millimeter and FUV continuum emission trace each other closely during the flare, suggesting that millimeter emission could serve as a proxy for FUV emission from stellar flares and become a powerful new tool to constrain the high-energy radiation environment of exoplanets. Surprisingly, optical emission associated with the event peaks at a much lower level with a time delay. The initial burst has an extremely short duration, lasting for<10 s. Taken together with the growing sample of millimeter M dwarf flares, this event suggests that millimeter emission is actually common during stellar flares and often originates from short burst-like events.

Stellar activity↗

A Comparison of Stratospheric Smoke Events Seen by SAGE II (1984-2005) and SAGE III (2017-2021)

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) operated for over 20 years (1984-2005) and collected near global observations of aerosol extinction coefficient from the upper troposphere to about40 km. SAGE III has flown aboard the International Space Station (ISS) since 2017 and has collected comparable aerosol measurements during this period. The SAGE II record is dominated by recovery from El Chichón (1982) and the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 with a few smaller volcanic events that are detectable in the data set. In addition, a number of pyrocumulus events injected smoke into the lower stratosphere with magnitudes that are comparable to the smaller volcanic events. The shorter SAGE III/ISS record is qualitatively different than SAGE II’s with a number of small to moderate volcanic eruptions in both low and high latitudes (e.g., Ambae in 2018 and Raikoke in 2020) as well several smokeevents including the two largest events seen by SAGE-like instruments: the BC pyrocumulus event in 2017 and the Australian brush fires of 2020/2021. In this paper, I will review the detection and quantification of the magnitude of these smoke events with a particular focus on the differences between the two data periods.

SAGE↗

A Comparison of Stratospheric Smoke Events Seen by SAGE II (1984-2005) and SAGE III (2017-2021)

The ongoing Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment aboard the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) has mostly occurred during a period of relatively low aerosol loading. At the same time, it has almost observed a number of small to moderate injections of volcanic material in the stratosphere from the Aoba/Ambae eruption of 2018 to that of Karymsky in 2022. In addition, two of the largest known smoke intrusions into the stratosphere have occurred during the SAGE III/ISS mission (the British Columbia fire of August 2017 and the Australian Wildfire Event of 2019/2020). At least two other much smaller smoke events have also been observed in the SAGE III data (California Creek in September 2020 and McKay Creek in June 2021). Particularly with the two large events, it is tempting to speculate that these events are increasing in intensity and frequency possibly due to ongoing climate change. Realistically, change is difficult to assess since instrument data sets that can be used for quantifying historical events can be quite different in what and where they provide measurements. This complicates comparing one event to another potentially separated by many years. An exception to this issues are the measurements by SAGE III/ISS and those of its predecessor SAGE II (1984-2005). Both use the same measurement strategy, measure aerosol extinction coefficient at 1020 nm, and have similar spatial/temporal coverage. Both instruments are known to observe smoke events in the stratosphere. However, both have the same low observation density characteristic of solar occultation such that near-global coverage takes almost a month and characterizing effectively instant events like smoke and volcanic events take a matter of weeks depending on the vagaries of where the observations are being made at a critical juncture unlike instruments with high temporal/spatial resolution like limb-scatter instruments such as OMPS and OSIRIS. The goal of this work will be to use the same analysis approach to both the SAGE II and SAGE III data and compare both the frequency and intensity of smoke events observed by these instruments. While we do not expect to be able to make conclusions about change between the periods, the analysis is a first step in interpreting changes in the contribution of smoke to the stratospheric aerosol budget between the time frames encompassed by these instruments.

L. W. Thomason↗

Dynamical Perturbation of the Stratosphere by a Pyrocumulonimbus Injection of Carbonaceous Aerosols

The Pacific Northwest pyrocumulonimbus Event (PNE) took place in British Columbia during the evening and night-time hours between the 12th and 13th of August 2017. Several pyroconvective clouds erupted in this occasion, and released in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere unprecedented amounts of carbonaceous aerosols (300 ktn). Only a few years later, an even larger pyroCb injection took place over Australia. This event, named the Australian New Year (ANY) event, injected up to 1100 ktn of aerosol between December 29th 2019 and January 4th 2020. Such large injections of carbonaceous aerosol modify the stratospheric radiative budgets, locally perturbing stratospheric temperatures and winds. In this study, we use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to study the pertubations on the stratospheric meteorology induced by an aerosol injection of the magnitude of the PNE. Our simulations include the radiative interactions of aerosols, so that their impact on temperatures and winds are explicitly simulated. We show how the presence of the carbonaceous aerosols from the pyroCb causes the formation and maintenance of a synoptic scale stratospheric anticyclone. We follow this disturbance considering the potential vorticity anomaly and the brown carbon aerosol loading and we describe its dynamical and thermodynamical structure and its evolution in time. The analysis presented here shows that the simulated anticyclone undergoes daily expansion-compression cycles governed by the radiative heating, which are directly related to the vertical motion of the plume, and that the aerosol radiative heating is essential in maintaining the anticyclone itself.

Pyrocumulonimbus↗

Local Scale (3-M) Soil Moisture Mapping Using SMAP and Planet Superdove

A capability for mapping meter-level resolution soil moisture with frequent temporal sampling over large regions is essential for quantifying local-scale environmental heterogeneity and eco-hydrologic behavior. However, available surface soil moisture (SSM) products generally involve much coarser grain sizes ranging from 30 m to several 10s of kilometers. Hence a new method is proposed to estimate 3-m resolution SSM using a combination of multi-sensor fusion, machine- learning (ML) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching approaches. This method established favorable SSM correspondence between 3-m pixels and overlying 9-km grid cells from overlapping Planet SuperDove (PSD) observations and NASA Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission products. The resulting 3-m SSM predictions showed improved accuracy by reducing ab- solute bias and RMSE by ~0.01 cm3/cm3 over the original SMAP data in relation to in-situ soil moisture measurements for the Australian Yanco region, while preserving the high sampling frequency (1-3 day global revisit) and sensitivity to surface wetness (R 0.865) from SMAP. Heterogeneous soil moisture distributions varying with vegetation biomass gradients and irrigation regimes were generally captured within a selected study area. Further algorithm refinement and implementation for regional applications will allow for improvement in water resources management, precision agriculture, and disaster forecasts and responses.

soil moisture↗

PyroCbs from Australia Fires and its Impact Using Satellite Observations from CrIS and TROPOMI and Reanalysis Data

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are thunder clouds created by intense heat from the Earth’s surface. They are formed similarly to cumulonimbus clouds, but the intense heat that results in the vigorous updraft comes from fire, either large wildfires or volcanic eruptions. Australia’s unprecedented fire disasters at the end of 2019 to early 2020 emitted huge amounts of carbon monoxide (CO) and fire aerosol particles to the atmosphere, particularly during the pyroCb outbreak that occurred in southeast Australia between 29 December 2019 and 4 January 2020. It was estimated that at least 18 pyroCbs were generated during this episode, and some of them injected ice, smoke, and biomass burning gases above the local tropopause. An unprecedented abundance of H2O and CO in the stratosphere, and the displacement of background ozone (O3) and N2O from rapid ascent of air from the troposphere and lower stratosphere were found from satellite observations. Some other studies also found that the fire emissions and their long-range transport resulted in stratospheric aerosol, temperature, and O3 anomalies after the 2020 Australian bushfires and altered the Antarctic ozone and vortex, posing great impact to local air quality and climate change. Further study on the atmospheric thermodynamic status of atmosphere associated with these pyroCbs, and the change of the cloud properties and trace gases during this unprecedented Australia fires will be made using a new single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Products (SiFSAP). SiFSAP was developed by NASA using the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard SNPP and JPSS-1, and will soon be available to the public at NASA DAAC. Since this product has a spatial resolution of 15 km at nadir, which is better than most global weather and climate models and other current operational sounding products, a process-oriented analysis of the dynamic transport of CO and fire plumes during this unprecedented fire disasters will be made in this study. Based on a Principal Component Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) and an optimized estimation retrieval algorithm, a simultaneously retrieval is made using the whole spectral information measured by CrIS, and the derived SiFSAP include temperature, water vapor, trace gases (such as O3, CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O), cloud properties and surface properties. Use of ATMS together with CrIS allows SiFSAP to get accurate retrieval products under thick pyroCb conditions, and an algorithm to detect pyroCb based on the hyperspectral infrared sounder spectrum from CrIS will be developed and verified. In addition to SiFSAP sounding products, other products like CO, O3, NO2 from TROPOMI, O3 from OMPS will be used for retrospective analysis. The wind fields from the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) and ERA5 will be used to characterize the transport, and the SiFSAP temperature and water vapor profiles within and around pyroCbs will be compared with MERRA-2 and ERA5 products.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗

Quantifying SAGE II (1984-2005) and SAGE III/ISS (2017-2022) Observations of Smoke in the Stratosphere

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) operated for over 20 years (1984-2005) and collected near global observations of aerosol extinction coefficient from the upper troposphere to about 40 km. SAGE III has flown aboard the International Space Station (ISS) since 2017 and has collected comparable aerosol measurements during this period. The SAGE II record is dominated by recovery from El Chichón (1982) and the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 with a few smaller volcanic events that are detectable in the data set. In addition, a number of pyrocumulus events injected smoke into the lower stratosphere with magnitudes that are comparable to the smaller volcanic events. The shorter SAGE III/ISS record is qualitatively different than SAGE II’s with a number of small to moderate volcanic eruptions in both low and high latitudes (e.g., Ambae in 2018 and Raikoke in 2020) as well several smoke events including the two largest events seen by SAGE-like instruments: the BC pyrocumulus event in 2017 and the Australian brush fires of 2020/2021. In this paper, I will review the detection and quantification of the magnitude of these smoke events with a particular focus on the differences between the two data periods.

Smoke↗

Quantifying SAGE II (1984-2005) and SAGE III/ISS (2017-2022) Observations of Smoke in the Stratosphere

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) operated for over 20 years (1984-2005) and collected near global observations of aerosol extinction coefficient from the upper troposphere to about 40 km. SAGE III has flown aboard the International Space Station (ISS) since 2017 and has collected comparable aerosol measurements during this period. The SAGE II record is dominated by recovery from El Chichón (1982) and the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 with a few smaller volcanic events that are detectable in the data set. In addition, a number of pyrocumulus events injected smoke into the lower stratosphere with magnitudes that are comparable to the smaller volcanic events. The shorter SAGE III/ISS record is qualitatively different than SAGE II’s with a number of small to moderate volcanic eruptions in both low and high latitudes (e.g., Ambae in 2018 and Raikoke in 2020) as well several smoke events including the two largest events seen by SAGE-like instruments: the BC pyrocumulus event in 2017 and the Australian brush fires of 2020/2021. In this talk, I will review the detection and quantification of the magnitude of these smoke events with a particular focus on the differences between the two data periods.

Smoke Stratosphere SAGE↗

StratoFIRE: Modeling Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

The most extreme manifestation of a fire–weather interaction is the formation of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderstorms, triggered by super-heated updrafts, which can eject smoke at altitudes exceeding 20 Km. In this study, we investigated climate-related impacts from the most intensive pyroCb-triggered injection of smoke in the stratosphere: the Australian New Year wildfires in 2019/2020. We first provide a general overview of the vision and objectives of the StratoFIRE project. With the aid of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, we then simulate radiative and chemical perturbations in the stratosphere in relation to 0.9 Tg smoke in the stratosphere assuming different injection heights, from 13 to 16 Km. The simulation of stratospheric optical depth perturbations were found to be sensitive to the assumed injection height, with a maximum height at 16 Km showing the best agreement with the GLOSSAC and SAGE-ISS aerosol extinction observations.

PyroCb↗

Quantifying SAGE II (1984-2005) and SAGE III/ISS (2017-2022) Observations of Smoke in the Stratosphere

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) operated for over 20 years (1984-2005) and collected near global observations of aerosol extinction coefficient from the upper troposphere to about 40 km. SAGE III has flown aboard the International Space Station (ISS) since 2017 and has collected comparable aerosol measurements during this period. The SAGE II record is dominated by recovery from El Chichón (1982) and the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 with a few smaller volcanic events that are detectable in the data set. In addition, a number of pyrocumulus events injected smoke into the lower stratosphere with magnitudes that are comparable to the smaller volcanic events. The shorter SAGE III/ISS record is qualitatively different than SAGE II’s with a number of small to moderate volcanic eruptions in both low and high latitudes (e.g., Ambae in 2018 and Raikoke in 2020) as well several smoke events including the two largest events seen by SAGE-like instruments: the BC pyrocumulus event in 2017 and the Australian brush fires of 2020/2021. In this talk, I will review the detection and quantification of the magnitude of these smoke events with a particular focus on the differences between the two data periods.

SAGE↗

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗

Composition Reanalyses at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion 2018 and 2022 report the recovery of Antarctic ozone, consistent with diminishing concentrations of halogens in the stratosphere. Both the size and the depth of the springtime ozone holes exhibit downward trends, particularly in September. Superimposed on the recovery trend are significant year-to-year fluctuations arising from dynamical variability potentially influenced by climate forcing and volcanic eruptions. Since 2018 the Antarctic stratosphere has experienced a wild parade of austral spring seasons with a sudden stratospheric warming and exceptionally high ozone in 2019 followed by large and long-lasting ozone holes in the following years, prompting questions about the speed and detectability of Antarctic ozone recovery and its potential connections to human-induced climate change. From the Australian New Years’ wildfires of 2020 to volcanic aerosols to the unprecedented injection of water vapor by the Hunga volcanic eruption, recent scientific literature on the subject investigates many factors that may or may not have contributed to this remarkable interannual variability. This presentation summarizes dynamical influences on springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone in recent years and discusses these results in the context of long-term trends. In particular, this work seeks to isolate dynamical and chemical contributions to the Antarctic springs since 2019 using a consistent methodological framework. Our analysis uses constituent and meteorological fields from the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) in combination with data from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer and from ozone sondes. Using the high spatial and temporal resolution of M2-SCREAM, we analyze the daily evolution of southern polar ozone, HCl, N2O, and water vapor in dynamical flow-following coordinates relative to the location, size, and shape of the polar vortex. For vertically integrated stratospheric ozone we emphasize the importance of the wave-influenced geometry of the polar vortex and its vertical alignment. The ultimate purpose of this project is to contribute to the quantification of the speed of the Antarctic ozone recovery and associated uncertainties.

Krzysztof Wargan↗

Space-based Sensor for Extreme Fire Weather Events

Catastrophic bushfires are becoming increasingly prevalent as climate change advances. Impacts extend beyond national borders. Multinational efforts can inform new science and management practices. Space-based sensors and integrated data facilities will play an important role. This paper describes a collaborative project between a consortium of Australian universities and NASA Centers to develop and implement a small satellite platform comprising highly integrated thermal and lightning sensors coupled with AI-based edge computing to help predict, detect, and track bushfires, supporting mitigation activities. This will fill an important capability gap since Australia does not currently have any sovereign Earth observation satellites. This program is enabled by and builds on Australia-NASA collaboration and will also support fire science and management activities in the broader global context.

wildfire↗

A Field Campaign to Study Lightning that Ignites the Bush

The impact of recent wildland fires in the United States and Australia have received much attention in the past several years. As a result, NASA has developed a new Earth Science program to better understand, predict, and manage this phenomenon, as well as a future suborbital mission to studying pyro-cumulonimbus clouds and their effects on the Earth system. In Australia, government and philanthropic stakeholders are supporting a series of field campaigns over the next few years to inform science requirements and advance technology for a future satellite mission to monitor Bushfires. Lightning flashes are a major source of wildland fires, but uncertainties remain about the physical characteristics of lightning and their parent thunderstorms responsible for igniting wildfires. It was long believed that most lightning-ignited wildfires are largely caused by positive flashes to the ground (CGs) and multi-stroke CGs, but a recent study looking at 26-years of NLDN data indicate otherwise. Perhaps this finding is due to statistical chance—there are more negative CGs that occur globally—or perhaps there is some unknown electrical property of the thundercloud from which the igniting flashes emanate. Regardless, new observing strategies are needed. Additionally, long continuing current CGs, which are more likely to ignite a fire, can elude detection by operational ground-based lightning location systems, making it difficult to efficiently identify potential wildland fires and manage them before they have adverse impacts. To address these science and operational gaps, NASA’s Lightning Mapping Array along with electric and magnetic field change meters will be deployed for the Australian Bushfire campaign to document the electrical structure and properties of thunderstorms and lightning that occur in a wildland fire susceptible region. Another aspect of the campaign will be the use of NASA’s airborne lightning observatory, which includes a spectrometer and high-speed imager, to document the radiometric attributes of these flashes coincident with the ground-based RF observations. These observations will be used to better understand the properties of lightning that ignite wildland fires as well as inform design of a lightning detection system for the future Bushfire Monitoring satellite mission.

lightning↗

Classification of ASKAP Vast Radio Light Curves

The VAST survey is a wide-field survey that observes with unprecedented instrument sensitivity (0.5 mJy or lower) and repeat cadence (a goal of 5 seconds) that will enable novel scientific discoveries related to known and unknown classes of radio transients and variables. Given the unprecedented observing characteristics of VAST, it is important to estimate source classification performance, and determine best practices prior to the launch of ASKAP's BETA in 2012. The goal of this study is to identify light curve characterization and classification algorithms that are best suited for archival VAST light curve classification. We perform our experiments on light curve simulations of eight source types and achieve best case performance of approximately 90% accuracy. We note that classification performance is most influenced by light curve characterization rather than classifier algorithm.

radio astronomy↗