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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Designing an Optimal Sensor Network via Minimizing Information Loss

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that “minimize information loss” from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Profiles of Gamma-Ray Bursts and Their Component Pulses

One physically informative regularity of their otherwise heterogeneous ensemble, is that many Gamma-Ray Bursts consist of well defined pulses. To objectively quantify the temporal structure of BATSE bursts, we have developed an automatic modeling procedure that separates overlapping pulses and determines the energy-dependence of the pulse-shape parameters. No binning of photon arrival times is needed, so when applied to time-tagged events (TTE) the procedure captures variability information down to the shortest time scales present in the raw data. Maximizing the Bayesian likelihood function Pr(data/model) yields estimates of the model parameters, including the number of pulses present, and allows intercomparison of models of different forms. As with any nonlinear optimization, good initial guesses are crucial to avoid convergence to undesirable local minima. We find excellent initial pulse decompositions by wavelet-denoising a cumulative distribution of the raw photon arrival data; differentiation then gives a time profile mostly free of the systematic effects of degraded resolution (as in ordinary Fourier smoothing) and binning. We present statistical information on pulse rise-time, decay-time, peakedness, and amplitudes, plus their energy dependences - both within a single burst and for a large ensemble of bursts.

Scargle, Jeff D.↗

A Massively Parallel Bayesian Approach to Planetary Protection Trajectory Analysis and Design

The NASA Planetary Protection Office has levied a requirement that the upper stage of future planetary launches have a less than 10(exp -4) chance of impacting Mars within 50 years after launch. A brute-force approach requires a decade of computer time to demonstrate compliance. By using a Bayesian approach and taking advantage of the demonstrated reliability of the upper stage, the required number of fifty-year propagations can be massively reduced. By spreading the remaining embarrassingly parallel Monte Carlo simulations across multiple computers, compliance can be demonstrated in a reasonable time frame. The method used is described here.

parallel computing↗

Dynamical dark energy in light of the DESI DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations measurements

Understanding whether cosmic acceleration arises from a cosmological constant or a dynamical component is a central goal of cosmology, and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) enables stringent tests with high-precision distance measurements. Here we analyse measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations in DESI Data Release 1 and Data Release 2 and consider type Ia supernovae and a distance prior for the cosmic microwave background. With the larger statistical power and wider redshift coverage of Data Release 2, the preference for dynamical dark energy does not diminish relative to Data Release 1. Using both a shape-function reconstruction and non-parametric approaches with a Horndeski-motivated correlation prior, we find that the equation of state for dark energy w(z) varies with redshift. Baryon acoustic oscillation data alone yield modest constraints, but in combination with independent supernova compilations and the prior for the cosmic microwave background, they strengthen the evidence for dynamics. A Bayesian comparison of models shows moderate support for departures from Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) when several degrees of freedom in w(z) are allowed, corresponding to ~3σ tension with ΛCDM (and higher for some datasets). Despite methodological differences, our results are consistent with companion DESI papers, underscoring the complementarity of the approaches. Possible systematics remain under study; forthcoming DESI, Euclid and next-generation cosmic microwave background data will provide decisive tests.

cosmology↗

Dynamical dark energy in light of the DESI DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations measurements

Understanding whether cosmic acceleration arises from a cosmological constant or a dynamical component is a central goal of cosmology, and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) enables stringent tests with high-precision distance measurements. Here we analyse measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations in DESI Data Release 1 and Data Release 2 and consider type Ia supernovae and a distance prior for the cosmic microwave background. With the larger statistical power and wider redshift coverage of Data Release 2, the preference for dynamical dark energy does not diminish relative to Data Release 1. Using both a shape-function reconstruction and non-parametric approaches with a Horndeski-motivated correlation prior, we find that the equation of state for dark energy w(z) varies with redshift. Baryon acoustic oscillation data alone yield modest constraints, but in combination with independent supernova compilations and the prior for the cosmic microwave background, they strengthen the evidence for dynamics. A Bayesian comparison of models shows moderate support for departures from Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) when several degrees of freedom in w(z) are allowed, corresponding to ~3σ tension with ΛCDM (and higher for some datasets). Despite methodological differences, our results are consistent with companion DESI papers, underscoring the complementarity of the approaches. Possible systematics remain under study; forthcoming DESI, Euclid and next-generation cosmic microwave background data will provide decisive tests.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure

Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis Methods and Results for Weak Gamma-Ray Bursts in the BATSE Data

We report initial results on the statistical properties of the dimmest gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) observed with the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE), using new ground-based methods to obtain a sample of GRBs from 502 days of BATSE data. Using the most sensitive ground-based detection of GRBs, the sample extends to GRBs much fainter than those detected by the on-board trigger, but because of the temporal resolution of the data, the sample is limited to GRBs of duration of at least 2(approx.)s. For each detected event, Bayesian probabilities are calculated for the event to belong to each of seven classes of differing physical origins. The sample of GRB candidates is defined by the requirement that the Bayesian probability for belonging to the GRB class is higher than 0.5. The intensity distribution of the GRB sample is corrected using a Monte Carlo simulation of the post-flight detection efficiency. The dimmest BATSE bursts of the sample continue the hardness-intensity trend seen in brighter GREs and are consistent with isotropy.

Mitrofanov, I. G.↗

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

A statistical technique for determining rainfall over land employing Nimbus 6 ESMR measurements

Statistical analysis of the Nimbus 6 ESMR measurements for remote monitoring of active rainfall data over land is presented. Horizontally and vertically polarized brightness temperature pairs from ESMR 6 were sampled for areas of rainfall over land as determined from the rain recording stations and the WSR 57 radar, and wet and dry ground over the southeastern U.S. These three categories of brightness temperatures were significantly different so that the possibilities of the mean vectors of any two populations coinciding were less than 1 in 100, so that classification algorithms were then developed. The Fisher linear classifier, the Bayesian quadratic classifier, and a non-parametric linear classifier were examined, and the Bayesian algorithm performed best. It was concluded that a rainfall area delineated by the Bayesian classifier coincided well with the synoptic-scale rainfall area mapped by ground recording rain data and radar echoes.

Rodgers, E.↗

Identifying microbial drivers in biological phenotypes with a Bayesian network regression model

Abstract In Bayesian Network Regression models, networks are considered the predictors of continuous responses. These models have been successfully used in brain research to identify regions in the brain that are associated with specific human traits, yet their potential to elucidate microbial drivers in biological phenotypes for microbiome research remains unknown. In particular, microbial networks are challenging due to their high dimension and high sparsity compared to brain networks. Furthermore, unlike in brain connectome research, in microbiome research, it is usually expected that the presence of microbes has an effect on the response (main effects), not just the interactions. Here, we develop the first thorough investigation of whether Bayesian Network Regression models are suitable for microbial datasets on a variety of synthetic and real data under diverse biological scenarios. We test whether the Bayesian Network Regression model that accounts only for interaction effects (edges in the network) is able to identify key drivers (microbes) in phenotypic variability. We show that this model is indeed able to identify influential nodes and edges in the microbial networks that drive changes in the phenotype for most biological settings, but we also identify scenarios where this method performs poorly which allows us to provide practical advice for domain scientists aiming to apply these tools to their datasets. BNR models provide a framework for microbiome researchers to identify connections between microbes and measured phenotypes. We allow the use of this statistical model by providing an easy‐to‐use implementation which is publicly available Julia package at https://github.com/solislemuslab/BayesianNetworkRegression.jl .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Ancel, Ersin↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

The Error Distribution of BATSE GRB Location

We develop empirical probability models for BATSE GRB location errors by a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the InterPlanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 394 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 20 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4B (rev) BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the locations in a 'core' term with a systematic error of 1.85 degrees and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.36 degrees, implying a 68% confidence region for bursts with negligible statistical errors of 2.3 degrees. There is some evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE datatype that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT datatype, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence region for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical errors is 2.0 degrees.

Briggs, Michael S.↗

The Error Distribution of BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Locations

Empirical probability models for BATSE gamma-ray burst (GRB) location errors are developed via a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the Interplanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 392 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 19 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4Br BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the probability in a "core" term with a systematic error of 1.85 deg and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.1 deg, which implies a 68% confidence radius for bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties of 2.2 deg. There is evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE data type that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT data type, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence radius for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties is 2.0 deg.

Briggs, Michael S.↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗

Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study

National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) Program uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as part of its Continuous Risk Management Process. It is used as a decision and management support tool to not only quantify risk for specific conditions, but more importantly comparing different operational and management options to determine the lowest risk option and provide rationale for management decisions. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distributions used to quantify the failure rates and the probability of failures of the basic events employed in the PRA model of the ISS. The paper will show how a Bayesian approach was used with different sources of data including the actual ISS on orbit failures to enhance the confidence in results of the PRA. As time progresses and more meaningful data is gathered from on orbit failures, an increasingly accurate failure rate probability distribution for the basic events of the ISS PRA model can be obtained. The ISS PRA has been developed by mapping the ISS critical systems such as propulsion, thermal control, or power generation into event sequences diagrams and fault trees. The lowest level of indenture of the fault trees was the orbital replacement units (ORU). The ORU level was chosen consistently with the level of statistically meaningful data that could be obtained from the aerospace industry and from the experts in the field. For example, data was gathered for the solenoid valves present in the propulsion system of the ISS. However valves themselves are composed of parts and the individual failure of these parts was not accounted for in the PRA model. In other words the failure of a spring within a valve was considered a failure of the valve itself.

Vitali, Roberto↗

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗