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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous convergence of STM control parameters using Bayesian optimization

Scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) is a widely used tool for atomic imaging of novel materials and their surface energetics. However, the optimization of the imaging conditions is a tedious process due to the extremely sensitive tip–surface interaction, thus limiting the throughput efficiency. In this paper, we deploy a machine learning (ML)-based framework to achieve optimal atomically resolved imaging conditions in real time. The experimental workflow leverages the Bayesian optimization (BO) method to rapidly improve the image quality, defined by the peak intensity in the Fourier space. The outcome of the BO prediction is incorporated into the microscope controls, i.e., the current setpoint and the tip bias, to dynamically improve the STM scan conditions. We present strategies to either selectively explore or exploit across the parameter space. As a result, suitable policies are developed for autonomous convergence of the control parameters. The ML-based framework serves as a general workflow methodology across a wide range of materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Algorithms for Inverse Problems With High-Dimensional Parameter Spaces

Inverse problems, which involve inferring unknown parameters from observed data, present significant computational challenges, especially in large-scale settings with high-dimensional unknown parameters and nonlinear relationships between the unknowns and observations. Bayesian inference provides an approach for addressing these problems, often relying on sequential sampling methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters. However, MCMC methods become computationally demanding as the dimensionality of the problem increases, particularly in large-scale systems where likelihood evaluations rely on solving partial differential equations (PDEs) on large spatial domains with finely resolved meshes. To overcome these limitations, recent advancements have focused on designing scalable computa tional techniques – for both PDE simulations and sampling strategies – to make Bayesian methods feasible for high-dimensional problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Off-the-shelf deep learning is not enough, and requires parsimony, Bayesianity, and causality

Abstract Deep neural networks (‘deep learning’) have emerged as a technology of choice to tackle problems in speech recognition, computer vision, finance, etc. However, adoption of deep learning in physical domains brings substantial challenges stemming from the correlative nature of deep learning methods compared to the causal, hypothesis driven nature of modern science. We argue that the broad adoption of Bayesian methods incorporating prior knowledge, development of solutions with incorporated physical constraints and parsimonious structural descriptors and generative models, and ultimately adoption of causal models, offers a path forward for fundamental and applied research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Process damping identification using Bayesian learning and time domain simulation

Process damping can provide improved machining productivity by increasing the stability limit at low spindle speeds. However, existing methods for identifying process damping models experimentally require specialized setups and/or multiple cutting tests. While the phenomenon is well known, the modeling challenges limit pre-process parameter selection that leverages the potential increases in material removal rates. This paper proposes a physics-informed Bayesian method that can identify the cutting force and process damping models from a limited set of test cuts without requiring direct measurements of cutting force or vibration. The method uses time domain simulation to incorporate process damping and provide a basis for test selection. Here, new strategies for efficient sampling and dimensionality reduction are applied to lower computation time and minimize the effect of model error. The proposed method is demonstrated and the identified cutting and damping force coefficients are compared to values obtained using machining tests and least-squares fitting.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing

This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics Discovery in Nanoplasmonic Systems via Autonomous Experiments in Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy

Abstract Physics‐driven discovery in an autonomous experiment has emerged as a dream application of machine learning in physical sciences. Here, this work develops and experimentally implements a deep kernel learning (DKL) workflow combining the correlative prediction of the target functional response and its uncertainty from the structure, and physics‐based selection of acquisition function, which autonomously guides the navigation of the image space. Compared to classical Bayesian optimization (BO) methods, this approach allows to capture the complex spatial features present in the images of realistic materials, and dynamically learn structure–property relationships. In combination with the flexible scalarizer function that allows to ascribe the degree of physical interest to predicted spectra, this enables physical discovery in automated experiment. Here, this approach is illustrated for nanoplasmonic studies of nanoparticles and experimentally implemented in a truly autonomous fashion for bulk‐ and edge plasmon discovery in MnPS 3 , a lesser‐known beam‐sensitive layered 2D material. This approach is universal, can be directly used as‐is with any specimen, and is expected to be applicable to any probe‐based microscopic techniques including other STEM modalities, scanning probe microscopies, chemical, and optical imaging.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anelasticity and Phase Transition During Ramp-Release in Tin

This study examines the qualitative features of an anelasticity model associated with the bowing of dislocations in the presence of phase transition. A simple physically plausible mechanism is introduced to describe the interaction of anelasticity and the transformation. Varying the anelastic parameters results in strong differences in the deviatoric stress response. The model is applied to study the behavior of tin (Sn) and compared to data from ramp driven compression-release experiments. Tin exhibits a complex phase diagram within a relatively accessible range of temperature and pressures and the characterization of its phases is considered an open problem with significant scientific merit. The coupling between anelasticity, plasticity, and phase transformation contributes to release wave features traditionally associated with the phase transition effect alone suggesting the importance of accounting for the effects jointly. Posterior distributions of the plastic and anelastic parameters are computed using Bayesian-inference-based methods, further highlighting the importance of anelasticity in this regime.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning based approach to predict ductile damage model parameters for polycrystalline metals

Damage models for ductile materials typically need to be parameterized, often with the appropriate parameters changing for a given material depending on the loading conditions. This can make parameterizing these models computationally expensive, since an inverse problem must be solved for each loading condition. Using standard inverse modeling techniques typically requires hundreds or thousands of high-fidelity computer simulations to estimate the optimal parameters. Additionally, the time of a human expert is required to set up the inverse model. Machine learning has recently emerged as an alternative approach to inverse modeling in these settings, where the machine learning model is trained in an offline manner and new parameters can be quickly generated on the fly, after training is complete. Here, this work utilizes such a workflow to enable the rapid parameterization of a ductile damage model called TEPLA with a machine learning inverse model. The machine learning model can efficiently estimate the model parameters much faster, as compared to previously employed methods, such as Bayesian calibration. The results demonstrate good accuracy on a synthetic test dataset and is validated against experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydro-scaling of direct-drive cylindrical implosions at the OMEGA and the National Ignition Facility

Deceleration-phase Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) growth during inertial confinement fusion capsule implosions significantly affects the performance as it mixes cold ablator material into the fuel. Precise measurements of such instability growth are essential for both validating the existing simulation codes and improving our predictive capability. RTI measurements on the inner surface of a spherical shell are limited and are often inferred indirectly at limited convergence. In contrast, cylindrical implosions allow for direct diagnostic access to the converging interface by imaging down the cylinder axis while retaining the effects of convergence. We have performed direct-drive cylindrical implosion experiments at both the OMEGA and the NIF laser facilities using scaled targets. RTI growth is demonstrated to be scale-invariant between the cylindrical targets at OMEGA and similar targets at the NIF, which are scaled up by a factor of three in the radial dimension. Single-mode (m = 0) instability growth factors of ~14 are measured at a convergence ratio (CR) ~ 2.5 with nearly identical mode growth at both scales. The measurements are in agreement with xRAGE radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. In addition, we have developed the Bayesian-inference-engine method to account for the variations in the target alignment, magnification, and the parallax effect in the measurement, allowing a more precise comparison between the experimental data and the simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stellar mass as a galaxy cluster mass proxy: application to the Dark Energy Survey redMaPPer clusters

Abstract We introduce a galaxy cluster mass observable, μ⋆, based on the stellar masses of cluster members, and we present results for the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 (Y1) observations. Stellar masses are computed using a Bayesian model averaging method, and are validated for DES data using simulations and COSMOS data. We show that μ⋆ works as a promising mass proxy by comparing our predictions to X-ray measurements. We measure the X-ray temperature–μ⋆ relation for a total of 129 clusters matched between the wide-field DES Y1 redMaPPer catalogue and Chandra and XMM archival observations, spanning the redshift range 0.1 < $z$ < 0.7. For a scaling relation that is linear in logarithmic space, we find a slope of α = 0.488 ± 0.043 and a scatter in the X-ray temperature at fixed μ⋆ of $\sigma _{{\rm ln} T_\mathrm{ X}|\mu _\star }= 0.266^{+0.019}_{-0.020}$ for the joint sample. By using the halo mass scaling relations of the X-ray temperature from the Weighing the Giants program, we further derive the μ⋆-conditioned scatter in mass, finding $\sigma _{{\rm ln} M|\mu _\star }= 0.26^{+ 0.15}_{- 0.10}$. These results are competitive with well-established cluster mass proxies used for cosmological analyses, showing that μ⋆ can be used as a reliable and physically motivated mass proxy to derive cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct nonparametric multimessenger constraints on the equation of state of cold dense nuclear matter

We utilize the now substantial amount of astrophysical observations of neutron stars (NSs), along with perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) calculations at high density, to directly constrain the NS equation of state (EOS). To this end, we construct nonparametric EOS priors by using Gaussian processes trained on 75 EOSs, which include models with either hadrons, hyperons, or quarks at high densities. We create a prior using the full EOS sample (model agnostic), and one prior for each EOS family to test model discrimination. We introduce a novel inference approach, which allows the simultaneous sampling of intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of binary NS mergers, as well as a nonparametric equation of state. We showcase this method in a Bayesian updating scheme by first performing a complete analysis of the binary NS merger event GW170817 with minimal assumptions, and sequentially adding information from x-ray and radio NS observations, along with pQCD calculations. Besides providing standard constraints, such as the pressure at twice nuclear saturation density 𝑝⁡(2⁢𝜌 sat ) = 4.3$^{+0.6}_{−0.6}$ × 10 34 dyne/cm 2 , at 95% confidence level, for the model agnostic prior, our methodology shows how the choice of EOS families used in conditioning changes the inferred astrophysical properties of the EOS, namely tidal deformability and maximum supported NS mass. We find hyperonic priors predicting higher tidal deformabilities for a 1.4⁢𝑀 ⊙ NS, and hadronic priors being preferred by the considered astrophysical data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPT clusters with DES and HST weak lensing. I. Cluster lensing and Bayesian population modeling of multiwavelength cluster datasets

We present a Bayesian population modeling method to analyze the abundance of galaxy clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) with a simultaneous mass calibration using weak gravitational lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We discuss and validate the modeling choices with a particular focus on a robust, weak-lensing-based mass calibration using DES data. For the DES Year 3 data, we report a systematic uncertainty in weak-lensing mass calibration that increases from 1% at z = 0.25 to 10% at z = 0.95 , to which we add 2% in quadrature to account for uncertainties in the impact of baryonic effects. We implement an analysis pipeline that joins the cluster abundance likelihood with a multiobservable likelihood for the Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, optical richness, and weak-lensing measurements for each individual cluster. We validate that our analysis pipeline can recover unbiased cosmological constraints by analyzing mocks that closely resemble the cluster sample extracted from the SPT-SZ, SPTpol ECS, and SPTpol 500d surveys and the DES Year 3 and HST-39 weak-lensing datasets. This work represents a crucial prerequisite for the subsequent cosmological analysis of the real dataset.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

QLBT: a linear Boltzmann transport model for heavy quarks in a quark-gluon plasma of quasi-particles

Abstract We develop a new heavy quark transport model, QLBT, to simulate the dynamical propagation of heavy quarks inside the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) created in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. Our QLBT model is based on the linear Boltzmann transport (LBT) model with the ideal QGP replaced by a collection of quasi-particles to account for the non-perturbative interactions among quarks and gluons of the hot QGP. The thermal masses of quasi-particles are fitted to the equation of state from lattice QCD simulations using the Bayesian statistical analysis method. Combining QLBT with our advanced hybrid fragmentation-coalescence hadronization approach, we calculate the nuclear modification factor $$R_\mathrm {AA}$$ R AA and the elliptic flow $$v_2$$ v 2 of D mesons at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider. By comparing our QLBT calculation to the experimental data on the D meson $$R_\mathrm {AA}$$ R AA and $$v_2$$ v 2 , we extract the heavy quark transport parameter $$\hat{q}$$ q ^ and diffusion coefficient $$D_\mathrm {s}$$ D s in the temperature range of $$1-4~T_\mathrm {c}$$ 1 - 4 T c , and compare them with the lattice QCD results and other phenomenological studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

UQ Toolkit v 2.0

The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterizaton and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. For the characterization of uncertainties, Bayesian inference tools are provided to infer uncertain model parameters, as well as Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, and also Karhunen-Loève expansions for representing stochastic processes. Uncertain parameters are treated as random variables and represented with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). The library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian OED for Seismic Monitoring

SAND2024-13870O The Bayesian OED (Optimal Experiment Design) for Seismic Monitoring code provides the tools to analyze and optimize seismic monitoring networks using Bayesian OED. This method designs a utility function for experiments (network designs) using network analysis and network optimization. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Catanach, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operations (SUMMER-GO): Project Final Report

The Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operation (SUMMER-GO) project was recently completed through a collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Maxar, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the University of Texas at Dallas, the University of California Berkeley, and the University of Colorado Boulder. The project made significant advances in probabilistic solar power forecasting, both through the development of Bayesian model averaging methods for ensemble forecasting and in bringing these and other advancements into practice with Maxar's delivery of operational forecasts to ERCOT. In addition to creating more reliable solar power forecasts, the project developed methods for their utilization in power system operations. These include the development of risk-aware unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithms and methods to reformulate probabilistic forecasts to be used in these power system operational models. Dynamic power system reserve methods were also developed, which have been shown in silico to create economic savings and reliability improvements on an ERCOT-like system as well as financial savings in the ERCOT system through more granular consideration of the uncertainty associated with solar power forecasts. Finally, a situational awareness tool to help grid operators better understand solar power forecast uncertainty in daily operations was developed and extensively vetted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A probabilistic inverse prediction method for predicting plutonium processing conditions

In the past decade, nuclear chemists and physicists have been conducting studies to investigate the signatures associated with the production of special nuclear material (SNM). In particular, these studies aim to determine how various processing parameters impact the physical, chemical, and morphological properties of the resulting special nuclear material. By better understanding how these properties relate to the processing parameters, scientists can better contribute to nuclear forensics investigations by quantifying their results and ultimately shortening the forensic timeline. This paper aims to statistically analyze and quantify the relationships that exist between the processing conditions used in these experiments and the various properties of the nuclear end-product by invoking inverse methods. In particular, these methods make use of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surface models in conjunction with Bayesian model calibration techniques to probabilistically determine processing conditions as an inverse function of morphological characteristics. Not only does the model presented in this paper allow for providing point estimates of a sample of special nuclear material, but it also incorporates uncertainty into these predictions. This model proves sufficient for predicting processing conditions within a standard deviation of the observed processing conditions, on average, provides a solid foundation for future work in predicting processing conditions of particles of special nuclear material using only their observed morphological characteristics, and is generalizable to the field of chemometrics for applicability across different materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗