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At least 307 records · Page 17

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities

Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diffuse Radiation Forcing Constraints on Gross Primary Productivity and Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration

Abstract The diffuse radiation fertilization effect—the increase in plant productivity in the presence of higher diffuse radiation ( K ↓,d )—is an important yet understudied aspect of atmosphere‐biosphere interactions and can modify the terrestrial carbon, energy, and water budgets. The K ↓,d fertilization effect links the carbon cycle with clouds and aerosols, all of which are large sources of uncertainties for our current understanding of the Earth system and for future climate projections. Here we establish to what extent observational and modeling uncertainty in sunlight's diffuse fraction ( k d ) affects simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and terrestrial evapotranspiration ( λE ). We find only 48 eddy covariance sites with simultaneous sufficient measurements of K ↓,d with none in the tropical climate zone, making it difficult to constrain this mechanism globally using observations. Using a land modeling framework based on the latest version of the Community Land Model, we find that global GPP ranges from 114 Pg C year −1 when using k d forcing from the Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 reanalysis to a ∼7% higher value of 122 Pg C year −1 when using the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System satellite product, with especially strong differences apparent over the tropical region (mean increase ∼9%). The differences in λE , although smaller (−0.4%) due to competing changes in shaded and sunlit leaf transpiration, can be greater than regional impacts of individual forcing agents like aerosols. Our results demonstrate the importance of comprehensively and systematically validating the simulated k d by atmosphere modules as well as the response to differences in k d within land modules across Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systematic Underestimation of Canopy Conductance Sensitivity to Drought by Earth System Models

The response of vegetation canopy conductance (g c ) to changes in moisture availability ($γ^{m}_{gc}$) is a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. While vegetation typically reduces stomatal conductance during drought, accurately modeling how and to what degree stomata respond to changes in moisture availability at global scales is particularly challenging, because no global scale g c observations exist. Here, we leverage a collection of satellite, reanalysis and station-based near-surface air and surface temperature estimates, which are physically and statistically linked to $γ^{m}_{gc}$ due to the local cooling effect of g c through transpiration, to develop a novel emergent constraint of $γ^{m}_{gc}$ in an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs). We find that ESMs systematically underestimate $γ^{m}_{gc}$ by ~33%, particularly in grasslands, croplands, and savannas in semi-arid and bordering regions of the Central United States, Central Europe, Southeastern South America, Southern Africa, Eastern Australia, and parts of East Asia. We show that this underestimation occurs because ESMs inadequately reduce g c when soil moisture decreases. As g c controls carbon, water and energy fluxes, the misrepresentation of modeled $γ^{m}_{gc}$ contributes to biases in ESM projections of gross primary production, transpiration, and temperature during droughts. Our results suggest that the severity and duration of droughts may be misrepresented in ESMs due to the impact of sustained g c on both soil moisture dynamics and the biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks that affect local temperatures and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Modeled Seasonal Cycles of Surface N 2 O Fluxes and Atmospheric N 2 O

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N 2 O-depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N 2 O (aN 2 O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here, we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N 2 O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN 2 O at eight remote air sampling sites for modern and pre-industrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal-average N 2 O fluxes for most sites, but seasonal peak-to-peak amplitudes differ several-fold across models. The modeled seasonal amplitude of surface aN 2 O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21%–52% of median) for land, 0.14–0.25 ppb (17%–68%) for ocean, and 0.28–0.77 ppb (23%–52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed seasonal amplitude ranges from 0.34 to 1.08 ppb for these sites. The stratospheric contributions to aN 2 O, inferred by the difference between the surface-troposphere model and observations, show 16%–126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ~1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude have increased since the pre-industrial era and are projected to grow further under anthropogenic activities. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of land fluxes for aN 2 O seasonality. Considering the large model spread, in situ aN 2 O observations and atmospheric transport-chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting carbon-nitrogen cycles under ongoing global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Climate change has been partially mitigated by an increasing net land carbon sink in the terrestrial biosphere; understanding the processes that drive this sink is thus essential for protecting, managing and projecting this important ecosystem service. In this Review, we examine evidence for an enhanced land carbon sink and attribute the observed response to drivers and processes. This sink has doubled from 1.2 ± 0.5 PgC yr -1 in the 1960s to 3.1 ± 0.6 PgC yr -1 in the 2010s. This trend results largely from carbon dioxide fertilization increasing photosynthesis (driving an increase in the annual land carbon sink of >2 PgC globally since 1900), mainly in tropical forest regions, and elevated temperatures reducing cold limitation, mainly at higher latitudes. Continued long-term land carbon sequestration is possible through the end of this century under multiple emissions scenarios, especially if nature-based climate solutions and appropriate ecosystem management are used. In conclusion, a new generation of globally distributed field experiments is needed to improve understanding of future carbon sink potential by measuring belowground carbon release, the response to carbon dioxide enrichment, and long-term shifts in carbon allocation and turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate change increases carbon allocation to leaves in early leaf green-up

Global greening, characterized by an increase in leaf area index (LAI), implies an increase in foliar carbon (C). Whether this increase in foliar C under climate change is due to higher photosynthesis or to higher allocation of C to leaves remains unknown. Here, we explored the trends in foliar C accumulation and allocation during leaf green-up from 2000 to 2017 using satellite-derived LAI and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) across the Northern Hemisphere. The accumulation of foliar C accelerated in the early green-up period due to both increased photosynthesis and higher foliar C allocation driven by climate change. In the late stage of green-up, however, we detected decreasing trends in foliar C accumulation and foliar C allocation. Such stage-dependent trends in the accumulation and allocation of foliar C are not represented in current terrestrial biosphere models. Further, our results highlight that a better representation of C allocation should be incorporated into models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi‐hypothesis comparison of Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models reveals the unexpected influence of empirical assumptions at leaf and global scales

Abstract Mechanistic photosynthesis models are at the heart of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) simulating the daily, monthly, annual and decadal rhythms of carbon assimilation ( A ). These models are founded on robust mathematical hypotheses that describe how A responds to changes in light and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Two predominant photosynthesis models are in common usage: Farquhar (FvCB) and Collatz (CBGB). However, a detailed quantitative comparison of these two models has never been undertaken. In this study, we unify the FvCB and CBGB models to a common parameter set and use novel multi‐hypothesis methods (that account for both hypothesis and parameter variability) for process‐level sensitivity analysis. These models represent three key biological processes: carboxylation, electron transport, triose phosphate use (TPU) and an additional model process: limiting‐rate selection. Each of the four processes comprises 1–3 alternative hypotheses giving 12 possible individual models with a total of 14 parameters. To broaden inference, TBM simulations were run and novel, high‐resolution photosynthesis measurements were made. We show that parameters associated with carboxylation are the most influential parameters but also reveal the surprising and marked dominance of the limiting‐rate selection process (accounting for 57% of the variation in A vs. 22% for carboxylation). The limiting‐rate selection assumption proposed by CBGB smooths the transition between limiting rates and always reduces A below the minimum of all potentially limiting rates, by up to 25%, effectively imposing a fourth limitation on A . Evaluation of the CBGB smoothing function in three TBMs demonstrated a reduction in global A by 4%–10%, equivalent to 50%–160% of current annual fossil fuel emissions. This analysis reveals a surprising and previously unquantified influence of a process that has been integral to many TBMs for decades, highlighting the value of multi‐hypothesis methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Defining the Sphagnum Core Microbiome across the North American Continent Reveals a Central Role for Diazotrophic Methanotrophs in the Nitrogen and Carbon Cycles of Boreal Peatland Ecosystems

Peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum are ecosystem engineers that frequently predominate over photosynthetic production in boreal peatlands. Sphagnum spp. host diverse microbial communities capable of nitrogen fixation (diazotrophy) and methane oxidation (methanotrophy), thereby potentially supporting plant growth under severely nutrient-limited conditions. Moreover, diazotrophic methanotrophs represent a possible “missing link” between the carbon and nitrogen cycles, but the functional contributions of the Sphagnum-associated microbiome remain in question. A combination of metagenomics, metatranscriptomics, and dual-isotope incorporation assays was applied to investigate Sphagnum microbiome community composition across the North American continent and provide empirical evidence for diazotrophic methanotrophy in Sphagnum-dominated ecosystems. Remarkably consistent prokaryotic communities were detected in over 250 Sphagnum SSU rRNA libraries from peatlands across the United States (5 states, 17 bog/fen sites, 18 Sphagnum species), with 12 genera of the core microbiome comprising 60% of the relative microbial abundance. Additionally, nitrogenase (nifH) and SSU rRNA gene amplicon analysis revealed that nitrogen-fixing populations made up nearly 15% of the prokaryotic communities, predominated by Nostocales cyanobacteria and Rhizobiales methanotrophs. While cyanobacteria comprised the vast majority (>95%) of diazotrophs detected in amplicon and metagenome analyses, obligate methanotrophs of the genus Methyloferula (order Rhizobiales) accounted for one-quarter of transcribed nifH genes. Furthermore, in dual-isotope tracer experiments, members of the Rhizobiales showed substantial incorporation of 13 CH 4 and 15 N 2 isotopes into their rRNA. Our study characterizes the core Sphagnum microbiome across large spatial scales and indicates that diazotrophic methanotrophs, here defined as obligate methanotrophs of the rare biosphere (Methyloferula spp. of the Rhizobiales) that also carry out diazotrophy, play a keystone role in coupling of the carbon and nitrogen cycles in nutrient-poor peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Ability of Space- Based Passive and Active Remote Sensing Observations of CO2 to Detect Flux Perturbations to the Carbon Cycle

Space-borne observations of CO2 are vital to gaining understanding of the carbon cycle in regions of the world that are difficult to measure directly, such as the tropical terrestrial biosphere, the high northern and southern latitudes, and in developing nations such as China. Measurements from passive instruments such as GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2), however, are constrained by solar zenith angle limitations as well as sensitivity to the presence of clouds and aerosols. Active measurements such as those in development for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission show strong potential for making measurements in the high-latitude winter and in cloudy regions. In this work we examine the enhanced flux constraint provided by the improved coverage from an active measurement such as ASCENDS. The simulation studies presented here show that with sufficient precision, ASCENDS will detect permafrost thaw and fossil fuel emissions shifts at annual and seasonal time scales, even in the presence of transport errors, representativeness errors, and biogenic flux errors. While OCO-2 can detect some of these perturbations at the annual scale, the seasonal sampling provided by ASCENDS provides the stronger constraint. Plain Language Summary: Active and passive remote sensors show the potential to provide unprecedented information on the carbon cycle. With the all-season sampling, active remote sensors are more capable of constraining high-latitude emissions. The reduced sensitivity to cloud and aerosol also makes active sensors more capable of providing information in cloudy and polluted scenes with sufficient accuracy. These experiments account for errors that are fundamental to the top-down approach for constraining emissions, and even including these sources of error, we show that satellite remote sensors are critical for understanding the carbon cycle.

tropical terrestrial biosphere↗

Satellite Remote Sensing: Ocean Color

Satellite ocean color instruments routinely provide global, synoptic views of the Earth's marine biosphere. These spaceborne radiometers measure light exiting the top of the atmosphere at discrete wavelengths in the ultraviolet to shortwave infrared region of the spectrum. This includes measurements of the color of the ocean - information used to infer the contents of the sunlit upper ocean, such as concentrations of phytoplankton, suspended sediments, and dissolved organic carbon. Continuous marine biological, ecological, and biogeochemical data records from satellite ocean color instruments now span over twenty years. This time-series not only supports Earth system and climate research, but also ecosystem and watershed management activities, including detection of nuisance and harmful algal blooms.

Biosphere↗

National Academy’s Committee on Biological and Physical Sciences in Space

Protect current and future scientific investigations by limiting biological and relevant molecular contamination of other solar system bodies through exploration activities and protecting the Earth’s biosphere by avoiding harmful biological contamination carried on returning spacecraft, as described in the Outer Space Treaty.

Earth↗

The fate of organic carbon in marine sediments - New insights from recent data and analysis

Organic carbon in marine sediments is a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and its degradation influences a wide range of phenomena, including the magnitude of carbon sequestration over geologic timescales, the recycling of inorganic carbon and nutrients, the dissolution and precipitation of carbonates, the production of methane and the nature of the seafloor biosphere. Although much has been learned about the factors that promote and hinder rates of organic carbon degradation in natural systems, the controls on the distribution of organic carbon in modern and ancient sediments are still not fully understood. In this review, we summarize how recent findings are changing entrenched perspectives on organic matter degradation in marine sediments: a shift from a structurally-based chemical reactivity viewpoint towards an emerging acceptance of the role of the ecosystem in organic matter degradation rates. That is, organic carbon has a range of reactivities determined by not only the nature of the organic compounds, but by the biological, geochemical, and physical attributes of its environment. This shift in mindset has gradually come about due to a greater diversity of sample sites, the molecular revolution in biology, discoveries concerning the extent and limits of life, advances in quantitative modeling, investigations of ocean carbon cycling under a variety of extreme paleo-conditions (e.g. greenhouse environments, euxinic/anoxic oceans), the application of novel analytical techniques and interdisciplinary efforts. Adopting this view across scientific disciplines will enable additional progress in understanding how marine sediments influence the global carbon cycle.

Organic carbon↗

Panel Session 24B: Records, Knowledge, and Memory for Radioactive Waste Repositories: Generational Equity Focus

This panel focused on the latest thoughts, ideas, and methodologies being explored throughout the world on how to communicate with future generations regarding nuclear waste disposal. Scientists determined many years ago that geological disposal in a repository was the preferred solution for nuclear waste disposal given the longevity concerns of the waste(s). Future generations must be informed through records, memory keeping and permanent markers to ensure they are aware of, and knowledgeable of, the dangers associated with nuclear waste isolated from the biosphere. Panelists with presentations: You Want to Drill Where? Human Intrusion Messaging Considerations (Thomas Peake, Jonathan Major); Ethical Reflections on the Basic Reasons for RK and M Measures (Carl-Reinhold Brakenhielm); NEA Activities on Information, Data and Knowledge Management (Rebecca Tadesse); Records, Knowledge and Memory (RK and M) Across Generations: Recent Activities and Progress in Sweden (Claudio Pescatore)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Chapter 4: What We Can Learn from Measuring Metabolic Fluxes in Cyanobacteria

Cyanobacteria with the capability of oxygen-evolving photosynthesis play a vital role in the global carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen cycles. From a biochemical perspective, all phenotypic traits and functions of cyanobacteria are derived from the potential of their metabolism and mirrored in metabolic fluxes through an integrated metabolic network. Metabolic flux, the rate of turnover of molecules through a metabolic pathway, is therefore of great importance for an in-depth understanding of the role of cyanobacteria in the biosphere. Recent interest in cyanobacteria metabolic fluxes is also motivated by the prospect to utilize their light-driven CO2 fixation for sustainable production of valuable chemicals and biofuels. Valorization of cyanobacterial metabolism will require engineering of the native metabolic network - a challenge that can benefit from a quantitative understanding of metabolic reactions taking place intracellularly. In this chapter, we will discuss some intriguing questions relevant to metabolic fluxes in cyanobacteria: How are metabolic fluxes predicted or measured? What do we know about the fluxome inside various cyanobacteria thus far? How are they different between strains as well as in different conditions? And how can we use fluxomics information to guide metabolic engineering and synthetic biology? This chapter will highlight updated knowledge on cyanobacterial metabolism. Specifically, we will focus on providing readers a quantitative vision to understand how this photosynthetic model works.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYS↗

Plant responses to elevated CO 2 under competing hypotheses of nitrogen and phosphorus limitations

Abstract The future ecosystem carbon cycle has important implications for biosphere‐climate feedback. The magnitude of future plant growth and carbon accumulation depends on plant strategies for nutrient uptake under the stresses of nitrogen (N) versus phosphorus (P) limitations. Two archetypal theories have been widely acknowledged in the literature to represent N and P limitations on ecosystem processes: Liebig's Law of the Minimum (LLM) and the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) approach. LLM states that the more limiting nutrient controls plant growth, and commonly leads to predictions of dramatically dampened ecosystem carbon accumulation over the 21st century. Conversely, the MEL approach recognizes that plants possess multiple pathways to coordinate N and P availability and invest resources to alleviate N or P limitation. We implemented these two contrasting approaches in the E3SM model, and compiled 98 in situ forest N or P fertilization experiments to evaluate how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to N and P limitations. We find that MEL better captured the observed plant responses to nutrient perturbations globally, compared with LLM. Furthermore, LLM and MEL diverged dramatically in responses to elevated CO 2 concentrations, leading to a two‐fold difference in CO 2 fertilization effects on Net Primary Productivity by the end of the 21st century. The larger CO 2 fertilization effects indicated by MEL mainly resulted from plant mediation on N and P resource supplies through N 2 fixation and phosphatase activities. This analysis provides quantitative evidence of how different N and P limitation strategies can diversely affect future carbon and nutrient dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using long‐term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models

Abstract Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea ‐ Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best‐performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea , the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO 2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Schädel, Christina↗

Earliest Traces of Life as a Window on Life's Origins

Life is the outcome of a complex network of chemical reactions and mo-lecular interactions that emerged on Earth once primitive chemical automata could self-assemble in such a way that enabled them to self-reproduce and evolve. Yet exactly how, where and when life first appeared on our planet remains unknown. Various lines of evidence from fossilized traces of early life preserved in the geological record provide fundamental, albeit often rudimentary, insight into early life. The oldest fossils record the nature of life more than half a billion years after it emerged on Earth and suggest that considerable metabolic diversity had already evolved by this time. Microfossils, microbial mats, stromatolites and organic and inorganic geochemical signatures have been interpreted as compelling evidence for Archean biodiversity. In spite of the chemical enigmas of the earliest life and its limited record, characterization of the various classes of biosignatures indicative of life in its geological context provides guidance as to the earliest co-evolution of the geosphere and biosphere.

Cavalazzi, Barbara↗

Peatland Microbial Community Composition Is Driven by a Natural Climate Gradient

Peatlands are important players in climate change–biosphere feedbacks via long-term net carbon (C) accumulation in soil organic matter and as potential net C sources including the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH 4 ). Interactions of climate, site-hydrology, plant community, and groundwater chemical factors influence peatland development and functioning, including C dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 fluxes, but the role of microbial community composition is not well understood. To assess microbial functional and taxonomic dissimilarities, we used high throughput sequencing of the small subunit ribosomal DNA (SSU rDNA) to determine bacterial and archaeal community composition in soils from twenty North American peatlands. Targeted DNA metabarcoding showed that although Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, and Actinobacteria were the dominant phyla on average, intermediate and rich fens hosted greater diversity and taxonomic richness, as well as an array of candidate phyla when compared with acidic and nutrient-poor poor fens and bogs. Moreover, pH was revealed to be the strongest predictor of microbial community structure across sites. Predictive metagenome content (PICRUSt) showed increases in specific genes, such as purine/pyrimidine and amino-acid metabolism in mid-latitude peatlands from 38 to 45° N, suggesting a shift toward utilization of microbial biomass over utilization of initial plant biomass in these microbial communities. Overall, there appears to be noticeable differences in community structure between peatland classes, as well as differences in microbial metabolic activity between latitudes. Finally, these findings are in line with a predicted increase in the decomposition and accelerated C turnover, and suggest that peatlands north of 37° latitude may be particularly vulnerable to climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗