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At least 307 records · Page 17

Characterization of Offshore Storage Resource Potential in the Central Planning Area of the Gulf of Mexico

This report contains a brief overview of the several studies that provide the basis for this work and details the reservoir characterization efforts that have been completed to date. Briefly, geological characterization data suggests that the deep-water reservoirs are the result of the interplay between turbidite depositional systems and salt tectonics. Project Partners have estimated the CO 2 storage capacity associated with saline reservoirs and that associated with CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) in the state waters of Louisiana. In addition, Project Partners have conducted a detailed analysis of CO 2 storage potential associated with CO 2 -EOR in the central planning area of the GOM. This work estimates that 3,140 million metric tonnes of CO 2 can be stored in optimal reservoirs of the shallow- and deep-water central GOM. A reduced order modeling and machine learning approach is introduced that will be used to evaluate CO 2 storage capacity and plume dynamics for down-selected, reservoir-specific, saline characterization. Last, a brief discussion establishes how the data presented in this report will support future work.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Effect of purity on adsorption capacities of a Mars-like clay mineral at different pressures

There has been considerable interest in adsorption of carbon dioxide on Marslike clay minerals. Some estimates of the carbon dioxide reservoir capacity of the martian regolith were calculated from the amount of carbon dioxide adsorbed on the ironrich smectite nontronite under martian conditions. The adsorption capacity of pure nontronite could place upper limits on the regolith carbon dioxide reservoir, both at present martian atmospheric pressure and at the postulated higher pressures required to permit liquid water on the surface. Adsorption of carbon dioxide on a Clay Mineral Society standard containing nontronite was studied over a wide range of pressures in the absence of water. Similar experiments were conducted on the pure nontronite extracted from the natural sample. Heating curves were obtained to help characterize and determine the purity of the clay sample.

Jenkins, Traci↗

Regional quantitative play fairway analysis: methodology global examples and application for the East African Rift system

Most volcanic arcs and active rifts around the world host producing geothermal systems. Many undiscovered and/or undeveloped systems remain in each of these areas, including magmatic-heated systems, amagmatic extension-related systems, and blind resources lacking active surface manifestations in both types of settings. However, not all volcanic centers or extensional terranes have the same geothermal potential. For example, even when high heat flow is present, permeability is commonly a limiting factor to resource development. A tool recently adapted for the geothermal industry is play fairway analysis, which calculates the regional probability of power-capable resources based on the spatial coincidence of key geologic conditions. In a geothermal setting, these key geologic conditions are heat, permeability, and fluids. Higher enthalpy systems also benefit from suitable cap rock. These parameters can be assessed through multiple geologic, geochemical, and geophysical data sets and integrated quantitatively to produce a single geothermal play fairway map. Potential input data sets include but are not limited to: 1) tectonic setting; 2) structural setting; 3) faults attributed by recency of rupture and slip rate; 3) geodetic crustal stain models; 5) gravity; 6) earthquake distribution; 7) thermal models; 8) geochemistry from springs, wells, and fumaroles; 9) temperature from springs, wells, and fumaroles; 10) fumarole size and type; and 11) age of volcanism. Recent play fairway studies have been completed for volcanic arcs and the dominantly amagmatic, extensional Great Basin region, USA, but have yet to be applied to the East African Rift System (EARS). Previous estimates of total geothermal resource capacity in the EARS is ~20 GWe, but only three areas are currently in production as of 2015: Olkaria and Eburru in Kenya, and Aluto-Langano in Ethiopia for a total installed capacity of <0.7 GWe. Many more volcanic centers host potential resources. In addition, amagmatic and/or blind systems also have potential in the EARS. Play fairway analysis can highlight regions most prospective for geothermal resource development, help identify locations prospective for undiscovered resources, prioritize overall exploration and development efforts, and refine estimates for total undeveloped resource potential.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Market analysis for the integration of new power technologies: A case study of the deployment of hybrid fossil-based generator plus energy storage (ES-FE)

This study examines the national landscape of hybridized fossil energy (FE) power plants with energy storage (ES) technologies (“ES-FE”) and presents the compilation of an ES-FE dataset, which includes over 65 ES-FE projects and concepts in the United States, comprising approximately 500 MWh of co-located ES capacity with FE power plants. This study also estimates the economic feasibility of adding ES to existing FE power plants by characterizing the potential revenues that can be generated by the ES component through flexibility and capacity value. The analysis focuses on ES technologies with 2- to 10-h. durations located in four U.S. independent system operators (ISOs): Midcontinent ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), PJM Interconnection (PJM), and California ISO (CAISO), which have +70,000 MW of combined FE power capacity that could add ES. Annual revenues are estimated for the ES component using a what-if-analysis approach, for capacity value, price arbitrage, or ancillary services provision. The results show that annual revenues depend on the end-use storage service, wholesale electricity and capacity market prices, and ES technology operation parameters such as discharging duration and cycling frequency. When performing a sensitivity analysis, ES accrues $7–178/kW-yr. via price arbitrage and ancillary services provision in the four ISOs, and $13–92/kW-yr. when providing capacity value only in MISO and PJM. A cash flow analysis is performed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of the ES addition using a range of ES costs. The study finds that for most ES technologies considered, these revenues alone are insufficient to achieve economic feasibility. In conclusion, of the 1645 total runs analyzed, 115 had positive NPVs (7%). Therefore, other revenue streams or monetizable benefits are necessary to achieve the break-even point.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Comminty Geothermal: Planning and Design of a Heating and Cooling System in Framingham, Massachusetts

These reports, plans, and drawings review the achievements of Home Energy Efficiency Team (HEET) and its partners to plan and design a network of interconnected ground-source heat pump systems, or geothermal network, in an area encompassing multiple environmental justice (EJ) neighborhoods in the City of Framingham, MA. The materials provided in this dataset include, a) stakeholder and design best practices, b) study on optimal method to interconnect geothermal loops, c) guidelines for monitoring and metering, d) operations and maintenance plans, e) permitting guidelines and f) 10-day driller tutorial curriculum. These materials can guide the efficient and ethical design of future geothermal networks nationwide. The capacity of the system is estimated at 217 tons and is designed to provide 100% of heating and cooling needs for the buildings connected to the loop. In this project, 80 boreholes are used as the main thermal resources, the distribution system (or loop) consists of 0.61 miles of an 8-inch single-pipe at ambient temperature, with the capacity to connect 44 buildings, including 13 apartment buildings from the Framingham Housing Authority, one transitional home, one school building and 29 single family homes. While Framingham already has a geothermal network loop that is currently in the commissioning stage, our proposed project is unique because it is the first utility-led expansion loop (2nd loop) project that will connect to an adjacent existing geothermal loop (1st loop) in a pre-existing neighborhood. Both the 1st and 2nd loops are being installed, owned and operated by Eversource Energy, the utility Deployment Partner.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Kolitz, Stephan E.↗

High Energy Storage Capacity Low Cost Iron Flow Battery

A new flow battery was proposed that utilizes low cost materials: iron as the only active element, cheap aqueous electrolytes, and inexpensive separators. During charging, ferrous iron (Fe 2+ ) is oxidized to ferric iron (Fe 3+ ) at the positive electrode while it (Fe 2+ ) is reduced to form iron metal (Fe 0 ) at the negative electrode. Because iron is plated at the negative electrode during charging, conventional electrode structures couple the energy storage capacity and the power rating of the battery. In order to decouple the energy and power ratings and regain the economic advantages of a flow battery, a slurry electrode design was proposed for use as the negative electrode. The slurry electrode is made by flowing electrically conductive particles in an electrolyte containing the dissolved iron species. On charging, iron is plated onto the particles. The particles can then carry the iron metal out of the cell to be stored in external reservoirs. This project looked to develop a slurry for the negative electrode of the all-iron flow battery that can operate at 200 mA/cm 2 with <100 mV overpotential, be pumped with parasitic energy costs < 10%, and promote plating on the particles. A scalable and stackable cell design of 1100 cm 2 was developed. The project was initially under contract in mid-January 2013. The project was converted from a one-year proof of concept seedling to an additional two-year program, then extended with an 18-month plus-up, and finally with an additional 6-month approved cost-overrun. During the seeding project, the concept of plating on carbon particles in a slurry was demonstrated. However, this was accomplished with high-cost multi-walled carbon nanotubes as the slurry material. The following two-year program discovered several low-cost carbon blacks that could also be used in this application. These findings were supported by an analysis that demonstrated the effectiveness of the carbon that takes into account not just the effective electronic conductivity of the slurry, but also the surface area per volume of the slurry. It was demonstrated that stable, flowable slurries could be created with these carbons, even when the carbons where fully loaded with iron during charging. During the two-year program, laboratory-scale 50 cm 2 single-cells demonstrated charge-discharge cycling at current densities of 150 mA/cm 2 and energy efficiencies of >50%. Meanwhile, cost modeling continued to show promise for this energy storage approach. Following the conversion period, the overall objective of the nominally 18-month plus up period was to close the technical gap of a 25X scale-up and reduce risk to enable commercial investment required to develop a slurry iron flow battery product. A specific objective was to demonstrate 150 cycles of performance exceeding 70% energy efficiency with a 10-cell stack of 1156 cm 2 cells operating at 100 mA/cm 2 . The 10-cell short stack was designed to have a power delivery rating of approximately 1 kW, which represents a size commensurate with the requirements of our commercialization partner at that time. A complete battery support system for the full-size cell was designed, fabricated, and tested. This includes pumps (multiple types were considered, and constant volume hose pumps were found to be acceptable for performance and cost), electrolyte rebalance reactor, and sensors and control systems. The support system proved to be well-behaved and worked well. A new low-cost membrane was developed for this system based on a microporous polymer support with a layer of hydrogel polymer. The membrane had low resistivity, and significantly reduced pressure driven fluid flow across the membrane (as compared to the un-coated microporous support). This membrane approach was scaled-up in conjunction with a commercial toll coating company, and a large amount of membrane was manufactured to support large cell and stack testing. A new concept for an electrolyte rebalance reactor to react hydrogen gas from the negative electrolyte (from plating inefficiency) with excess ferric ion in the positive electrolyte was developed. This design was very simple, low cost, and effective. The full scale 1156 cm 2 single-cell was designed, modeled, fabricated and tested. Modeling showed that uniform flow-distribution should be obtained with the designed flow distributor. The design took into consideration the need to stack the cells, and components were fabricated for a ten-cell stack. Testing of the cell for charge and discharge demonstrated current densities of 50 mA/cm 2 with efficiencies of 50%. However, optimization and long cycling could not be accomplished because the slurry electrode would plug within the cell and block the flow. This would shut down the cell after several charge-discharge cycles. Various approaches were pursued to address this problem with some progress. However, there was not adequate time to find solutions to the problem although several promising approaches were identified for future work. The final deliverable for this proposed 18-month effort was to be a 1 kW, 6 kWh slurry flow battery, with complete balance of plant, ready for testing at an ARPA-E ‘Charges’ site with an estimated capital cost less than $\$ $45/kWh for a six-hour system (excluding power electronics). The deliverable milestone was not achieved for reasons mentioned above related to the slurry plugging. At the completion of this project, it was determined that the cost targets are achievable. The cost estimate for a 1 MW system with a one-hour capacity was estimated at $\$ $140/kWh (including power electronics) and for a six-hour system was estimated at $\$ $40/kWh (including power electronics). These costs include the battery, the balance of plant, the power conditioning and a concrete pad. This program resulted in three patents including the slurry-based iron flow battery, the rebalance reactor, and the membrane separator. At the time of this report, slurry-based iron flow battery patents have been issued in the US, China, Japan, Korea, and Europe. The other patent applications were under various stages of examination. A licensee was identified and the company initiated a scale-up and development program to take this technology to the marketplace, and CWRU staff have transferred their know-how and knowledge base to the company. This technology will enhance the economic and energy security of the United States by enabling the use of intermittent renewable energy technology, such as wind and solar power, as dispatchable resources. This report summarizes the results of this research and development program.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Exchange of adsorbed H2O and CO2 between the regolith and atmosphere of Mars caused by changes in surface insolation

Estimates have been made of the capacity of the Martian regolith to exchange adsorbed H2O and CO2 with the atmosphere-plus-cap system (APCS). These estimates are based upon measured isotherms for H2O and CO2 adsorption on pulverized basalt at low temperatures and on theoretical considerations. A unit column (1 sq cm) of regolith with a deep subsurface temperature of -77 C, considered average for the disk, will contain about 0.4 g of adsorbed CO2 and about 1 g of adsorbed H2O per meter of depth. Under favorable circumstances the top 3 cm can exchange much more H2O with the lower atmosphere each day than is necessary to produce the diurnal brightening. The process appears to be seasonally reversible. The total regolith may contain, in the adsorbed phase alone, as much as 1% of the H2O and 5% of the CO2 surface inventories expected for a hypothetical Mars that has experienced degassing as intensive as that of earth.

Fanale, F. P.↗

Evaluation of HCMM data for assessing soil moisture and water table depth

Data were analyzed for variations in eastern South Dakota. Soil moisture in the 0-4 cm layer could be estimated with 1-mm soil temperatures throughout the growing season of a rainfed barley crop (% cover ranging from 30% to 90%) with an r squared = 0.81. Empirical equations were developed to reduce the effect of canopy cover when radiometrically estimating the 1-mm soil temperature, r squared = 0.88. The corrective equations were applied to an aircraft simulation of HCMM data for a diversity of crop types and land cover conditions to estimate the 0-4 cm soil moisture. The average difference between observed and measured soil moisture was 1.6% of field capacity. HCMM data were used to estimate the soil moisture for four dates with an r squared = 0.55 after correction for crop conditions. Location of shallow alluvial aquifers could be accomplished with HCMM predawn data. After correction of HCMM day data for vegetation differences, equations were developed for predicting water table depths within the aquifer (r=0.8).

Moore, D. G.↗

Summary of Industry Task Orders Completed by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy's Nuclear Fuel Storage and Transportation Planning Project

The Administration released its Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High- Level Radioactive Waste in January 2013. The Strategy includes a phased, adaptive, and consent-based approach to siting, and implementing a comprehensive management and disposal system. These plans include activities to establish one or more ISFs using consent-based siting and to prepare for large-scale transport of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). Nuclear Fuels Storage and Transportation Planning Project (NFST) completed the following three Task Orders, using industry Advisory and Assistance Contracts related interim storage and transportation. These design concepts provide important information to the waste management systems analysis regarding throughput capacities, operational considerations, and cost estimates. - Generic Design Alternatives for Dry Storage of Used Nuclear Fuel- Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBandI) developed and documented generic design alternatives for receipt and storage of SNF and greater-than-class-C (GTCC) waste contained in dual-purpose canisters. - Generic Design for Small Size Standard Transportation, Aging, and Disposal Canister System- EnergySolutions developed a generic design of a small capacity (4 PWR/9 BWR) Standard Transportation, Aging, and Disposal (STAD) canister. - Operational Requirements for Standardized Dry Fuel Canister Systems- EnergySolutions developed solutions to address operational impacts of using a standardized canister at utility sites with a smaller capacity than conventional, dual-purpose canisters (DPC). (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Emissions Assessment Model (GLEAM) Model Documentation

The Greenhouse gas Life cycle Emissions Assessment Model (GLEAM) estimates life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from future scenarios of electricity generation considering a wide range of generation technologies. Building on the National Laboratory of the Rockies longstanding effort to quantify life cycle emissions by electricity generation technology under the LCA Harmonization Project, GLEAM streamlines the process of estimating cumulative greenhouse gas emissions on a life cycle basis. Given a set of inputs regarding annual installed and decommissioned generation capacity, as well as generation, GLEAM estimates the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by year. The model also offers optional modules to decompose carbon dioxide equivalent emissions into constituent greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) as well as estimate hydrogen leakage from relevant technologies. The results from GLEAM can be used to inform future electricity planning scenarios as well as investment or regulatory decisions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stiffness and Damping Coefficient Estimation of Compliant Surface Gas Bearings for Oil-Free Turbomachinery

Foil gas bearings are a key technology in many commercial and emerging Oil-Free turbomachinery systems. These bearings are non-linear and have been difficult to analytically model in terms of performance characteristics such as load capacity, power loss, stiffness and damping. Previous investigations led to an empirically derived method, a rule-of-thumb, to estimate load capacity. This method has been a valuable tool in system development. The current paper extends this tool concept to include rules for stiffness and damping coefficient estimation. It is expected that these rules will further accelerate the development and deployment of advanced Oil-Free machines operating on foil gas bearings

DellaCorte, Christopher↗

Preliminary Long-term Safety Assessment for the Planned LLW Disposal Facility at Al-Tuwaitha, Iraq - 18142

Before 1991, Iraq had a significant nuclear program which encompassed ten nuclear sites spread out across the country. The largest nuclear site was located at the Al-Tuwaitha site near Baghdad where 18 nuclear facilities were concentrated. During the first Gulf War in 1991, all sites suffered significant damage from bombing and subsequent looting. Currently, the Ministry of Science and Technology is responsible for the ten heavily damaged nuclear sites and for the management of radioactive waste in Iraq in general. The task of decommissioning the damaged nuclear facilities and managing the resulting waste is being supported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the European Commission (EC), and the United States (US). In the framework of its Instrument for Nuclear Safety Cooperation (INSC), the EC has launched a cooperation project to support the planned construction of an engineered repository for short-lived low- and intermediate level waste for the safe disposal of radioactive waste resulting from the decommissioning activities, as well as for waste from the continuing use of radioisotopes in medicine and the oil and gas industry in the country. The main objectives of this project, which was awarded to a Consortium led by NUKEM Technologies Engineering Services GmbH and joined by DBE Technology GmbH of Germany and JAVYS a.s. of Slovakia, are the development of an initial conceptual level basic design and preliminary safety assessment report (PSAR) and the subsequent detailed engineering design and supporting pre-construction safety assessment report (PCSAR). The current paper focuses on the development of the PSAR. Special focus is given to the long-term calculations and difficulties associated with the limited data base in regard to site characterization as well as the expected inventory for the future repository. Because of the ongoing security concerns in Iraq, the Ministry of Science and Technology had already selected the Al-Tuwaitha Site as the best suited location for the planned surface repository at the start of the project. Although some site characterization work had already been carried out prior to the start of the project, certain data for modelling the geology and hydrology of the site are still lacking. Missing data have been compensated by conservative assumptions and the assessment of alternative scenarios. Consequently, for the development of the simplified GoldSim{sup R} computer model used to carry out the long-term calculations supporting the PSAR, existing site information was used and, as appropriate, amended or replaced by conservative assumptions. Due to the nature of the waste, data on the expected inventory are associated with large uncertainties. Although certain estimates related to the future volume of the waste exist, little to no information is available on the expected radionuclide vector and respective activities. Therefore, the long-term calculations were carried out for a generic inventory including a broad range of radionuclides that are to be expected as being important considering the kind of waste to be disposed of in the facility. Based on the results of these calculations, the maximum total capacity of the facility was estimated and converted into activity limits for individual radionuclides that will be integrated into the existing general WAC for the facility. Compliance with these WAC will then guarantee the safety of the repository in regard to potential radionuclide releases via the groundwater pathway. In parallel to the determination of activity limits for the WAC, long-term calculations were carried using different estimates for the expected total activity to determine the general suitability of the proposed technical solution of the repository for receiving the total amount of Iraqi radioactive waste principally acceptable for surface disposal. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Dependence of the kinetic energy absorption capacity of bistable mechanical metamaterials on impactor mass and velocity

Using an alternative mechanism to dissipation or scattering, bistable structures and mechanical metamaterials have shown promise for mitigating the detrimental effects of impact by reversibly locking energy into strained material. Herein, we extend prior works on impact absorption via bistable metamaterials to computationally explore the dependence of kinetic energy transmission on the velocity and mass of the impactor, with strain rates exceeding 10 2 s –1 . We observe a large dependence on both impactor parameters, ranging from significantly better to worse performance than a comparative linear material. We then correlate the variability in performance to solitary wave formation in the system and give analytical estimates of idealized energy absorption capacity under dynamic loading. In addition, we find a significant dependence on damping accompanied by a qualitative difference in solitary wave propagation within the system. The complex dynamics revealed in this study offer potential future guidance for the application of bistable metamaterials to applications including human and engineered system shock and impact protection devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A General Method for Estimating Zonal Transmission Interface Limits from Nodal Network Data: Preprint

Capacity expansion models for the electric power system often employ zonal (rather than nodal) resolution, necessitating estimates of aggregate power transfer limits across the interfaces between model zones. Interface limits between planning areas are sometimes published, but they are not generalizable to arbitrary zone shapes. There is thus a need for a reproducible method for estimating interface transfer limits (ITLs) between user-defined zones directly from nodal transmission system data. Here, we present a simple method for estimating ITLs using a DC power flow approximation via the power transfer distribution factor (PTDF) matrix. Linear optimization is performed to identify the distribution of power flows that maximizes the total flow on interface-crossing lines, subject to individual line ratings, limits on bus injection/withdrawal, and the relationships among flows, injections, and withdrawals imposed by the PTDF matrix. We demonstrate the application of the method on a 134-zone ~65000-bus system, and we explore the influence of flow direction, contingency level, and zone size on the estimated ITLs. There is significant heterogeneity in the ratio of the ITL to the sum of interface-crossing line ratings, which highlights the importance of accounting for the physical constraints on power flows imposed by Kirchhoff's laws when estimating zonal ITLs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗