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SysML Success Tree for DAVINCI In-Situ Campaign Requirements Validation and Redundancy Assessment

The DAVINCI mission will scientifically study the Venusian atmosphere to better understand the current state of the planet and its evolutionary history. This will be accomplished by deploying a descent probe to collect in-situ atmospheric dynamic and spectroscopic measurements, characterize ambient temperatures and pressures during descent, and surface imaging below the cloud layer. To better characterize the DAVINCI In-Situ Campaign, a success tree, developed in the SysML tool, MagicDraw, was created to define the events necessary to have a successful in-situ campaign, for each phase of the campaign. This success tree was also used to validate DAVINCI Program, Mission, and Element level requirements. In addition, because DAVINCI is a single-string mission, the success tree was also used to identify areas of redundancy and resiliency throughout the campaign. The initial redundancy assessment recommended further on-orbit evaluation of the probe’s communication system, as well as further evaluation of the ability of the mass spectrometer turbo-molecular pump to handle the expected decent environment. During the integration and test phase of the overall mission, the success tree will be used to guide the mission validation process, helping to ensure that the in-situ mission elements can perform in accordance with the DAVINCI In-Situ Concept of Operations document.

model-based↗

SysML Success Tree for DAVINCI In-Situ Campaign Requirements Validation and Redundancy Assessment

The DAVINCI mission will scientifically study the Venusian atmosphere to better understand the current state of the planet and its evolutionary history. This will be accomplished by deploying a descent probe to collect in-situ atmospheric dynamic and spectroscopic measurements, characterize ambient temperatures and pressures during descent, and surface imaging below the cloud layer. To better characterize the DAVINCI In-Situ Campaign, a success tree, developed in the SysML tool, MagicDraw, was created to define the events necessary to have a successful in-situ campaign, for each phase of the campaign. This success tree was also used to validate DAVINCI Program, Mission, and Element level requirements. In addition, because DAVINCI is a single-string mission, the success tree was also used to identify areas of redundancy and resiliency throughout the campaign. The initial redundancy assessment recommended further on-orbit evaluation of the probe’s communication system, as well as further evaluation of the ability of the mass spectrometer turbo-molecular pump to handle the expected decent environment. During the integration and test phase of the overall mission, the success tree will be used to guide the mission validation process, helping to ensure that the in-situ mission elements can perform in accordance with the DAVINCI In-Situ Concept of Operations document.

model-based↗

SysML Success Tree for DAVINCI In-Situ Campaign Requirements Validation and Redundancy Assessment

The DAVINCI mission will scientifically study the Venusian atmosphere to better understand the current state of the planet and its evolutionary history. This will be accomplished by deploying a descent probe to collect in-situ atmospheric dynamic and spectroscopic measurements, characterize ambient temperatures and pressures during descent, and surface imaging below the cloud layer. To better characterize the DAVINCI In-Situ Campaign, a success tree, developed in the SysML tool, MagicDraw, was created to define the events necessary to have a successful in-situ campaign, for each phase of the campaign. This success tree was also used to validate DAVINCI Program, Mission, and Element level requirements. In addition, because DAVINCI is a single-string mission, the success tree was also used to identify areas of redundancy and resiliency throughout the campaign. The initial redundancy assessment recommended further on-orbit evaluation of the probe’s communication system, as well as further evaluation of the ability of the mass spectrometer turbo-molecular pump to handle the expected decent environment. During the integration and test phase of the overall mission, the success tree will be used to guide the mission validation process, helping to ensure that the in-situ mission elements can perform in accordance with the DAVINCI In-Situ Concept of Operations document.

ConOps↗

Inception of Snapover and Gas Induced Glow Discharges

Ground based experiments of the snapover phenomenon were conducted in the large vertical simulation chamber at the Glenn Research Center (GRC) Plasma Interaction Facility (PIF). Two Penning sources provided both argon and xenon plasmas for the experiments. The sources were used to simulate a variety of ionospheric densities pertaining to a spacecraft in a Low Earth Orbital (LEO) environment. Secondary electron emission is believed responsible for dielectric surface charging, and all subsequent snapover phenomena observed. Voltage sweeps of conductor potentials versus collected current were recorded in order to examine the specific charging history of each sample. The average time constant for sample charging was estimated between 25 and 50 seconds for all samples. It appears that current drops off by approximately a factor of 3 over the charging time of the sample. All samples charged in the forward and reverse bias directions, demonstrated hysteresis. Current jumps were only observed in the forward or positive swept voltage direction. There is large dispersion in tile critical snapover potential when repeating sweeps on any one sample. The current ratio for the first snapover region jumps between 2 and 4.6 times, with a standard deviation less than 1.6. Two of the samples showed even larger current ratios. It is believed the second large snapover region is due to sample outgassing. Under certain preset conditions, namely at the higher neutral gas background pressures, a perceptible blue-green glow was observed around the conductor. The glow is believed to be a result of secondary electrons undergoing collisions with an expelled tenuous cloud of gas, that is outgassed from the sample. Spectroscopic measurements of the glow discharge were made in an attempt to identify specific lines contributing to the observed glow.

Galofaro, J. T.↗

A Well-Calibrated Ocean Algorithm for Special Sensor Microwave/Imager

I describe an algorithm for retrieving geophysical parameters over the ocean from special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) observations. This algorithm is based on a model for the brightness temperature T(sub B) of the ocean and intervening atmosphere. The retrieved parameters are the near-surface wind speed W, the columnar water vapor V, the columnar cloud liquid water L, and the line-of-sight wind W(sub LS). I restrict my analysis to ocean scenes free of rain, and when the algorithm detects rain, the retrievals are discarded. The model and algorithm are precisely calibrated using a very large in situ database containing 37,650 SSM/I overpasses of buoys and 35,108 overpasses of radiosonde sites. A detailed error analysis indicates that the T(sub B) model rms accuracy is between 0.5 and 1 K and that the rms retrieval accuracies for wind, vapor, and cloud are 0.9 m/s, 1.2 mm, and 0.025 mm, respectively. The error in specifying the cloud temperature will introduce an additional 10% error in the cloud water retrieval. The spatial resolution for these accuracies is 50 km. The systematic errors in the retrievals are smaller than the rms errors, being about 0.3 m/s, 0.6 mm, and 0.005 mm for W, V, and L, respectively. The one exception is the systematic error in wind speed of -1.0 m/s that occurs for observations within +/-20 deg of upwind. The inclusion of the line-of-sight wind W(sub LS) in the retrieval significantly reduces the error in wind speed due to wind direction variations. The wind error for upwind observations is reduced from -3.0 to -1.0 m/s. Finally, I find a small signal in the 19-GHz, horizontal polarization (h(sub pol) T(sub B) residual DeltaT(sub BH) that is related to the effective air pressure of the water vapor profile. This information may be of some use in specifying the vertical distribution of water vapor.

Wentz, Frank J.↗

A Case Study on the Challenges and Opportunities for the Deployment of PHM Capabilities in Existing Engineering Systems

The field of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) of engineering systems has experienced considerable growth over the last decade. From benefits associated with faster and more powerful hardware in the form of wireless sensors, edge devices, and general computing capabilities (GPU’s and cloud computing), to development of powerful algorithms for anomaly detection and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation, the number of engineering systems featuring advanced diagnostics and prognostics capabilities continues to grow at an increasingly faster pace. However, the deployment of PHM capabilities as part of the upgrade of existing engineering systems presents multiple challenges to the PHM practitioner charged with retrofitting such systems. Issues include a lack of specific instrumentation needed to capture the signals of interest; insufficient data and sampling rates required for fault detection and diagnosis, and for detection of failure/degradation indicators; and difficulties in the identification of a system’s nominal behavior as a result of age induced degradation. Today’s PHM practitioner must be able to quickly identify and assess these types of issues to effectively evaluate and select the optimal PHM strategies required to achieve the desired results. This paper presents results from the preliminary evaluation of the High-Pressure Gas Facility (HPGF) infrastructure at NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Hancock County, Mississippi. This evaluation is part of a feasibility study conducted prior to the deployment of prognostics and diagnostics capabilities in the pumps skids of the liquid nitrogen (LN2) system of the HPGF.

Condition Based Maintenance↗

Sensitivity Studies for Space-based Measurements of Atmospheric Total Column Carbon Dioxide Using Reflected Sunlight

A series of sensitivity studies is carried out to explore the feasibility of space-based global carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements for global and regional carbon cycle studies. The detection method uses absorption of reflected sunlight in the CO2 vibration-rotation band at 1.58 micron. The sensitivities of the detected radiances are calculated using the line-by-line model (LBLRTM), implemented with the DISORT (Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer) model to include atmospheric scattering in this band. The results indicate that (a) the small (approx.1%) changes in CO2 near the Earth's surface are detectable in this CO2 band provided adequate sensor signal-to-noise ratio and spectral resolution are achievable; (b) the effects of other interfering constituents, such as water vapor, aerosols and cirrus clouds, on the radiance are significant but the overall effects of the modification of light path length on total back-to-space radiance sensitivity to CO2 change are minor for general cases, which means that generally the total column CO2 can be derived in high precision from the ratio of the on-line center to off-line radiances; (c) together with CO2 gas absorption aerosol/cirrus cloud layer has differential scattering which may result in the modification of on-line to off-line radiance ratio which could lead a large bias in the total column CO2 retrieval. Approaches to correct such bias need further investigation. (d) CO2 retrieval requires good knowledge of the atmospheric temperature profile, e.g. approximately 1K RMS error in layer temperature, which is achievable from new atmospheric sounders in the near future; (e) the atmospheric path length, over which the CO2 absorption occurs, should be known in order to correctly interpret horizontal gradients of CO2 from the total column CO2 measurement; thus an additional sensor for surface pressure measurement needs to be attached for a complete measurement package.

Mao, Jianping↗

Tropospheric- Stratospheric Measurement Studies Summary

The two high altitude aircraft, ER-2 NASA #706 and 709 and the DC-8 NASA #717 are in active use in several programs of upper atmospheric research to study polar ozone changes, stratospheric-tropospheric exchange processes and atmospheric effects of aviation aircraft. The ER-2 has participated in seven major missions which mainly concentrated on vortex dynamics and the large losses of Ozone in the Polar regions (Ozone hole) observed in the spring. One mission verified the complex dynamical chemical and physical processes that occur during sunrise and sunset. Stratospheric Tracers of Atmospheric Transport (STRAT) obtained background measurements using the full ER-2 suite of instruments. Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) in 1997 assisted in understanding the mid-latitude and Arctic Ozone losses during the Northern Summer. The DC-8 with the Meteorological Measurement System (MMS) has participated in the Subsonic Aircraft: Cloud and Contrail Effects Special Study (SUCCESS), in 1996 and the Subsonic assessment Ozone and Nitrogen oxide experiment (SONEX) in 1997 missions. The MMS with its sophisticated software accurately measures ground speed and attitude, in-situ static and dynamic pressure total temperature, which are used to calculate the three dimensional wind fields, static pressure, temperature and turbulence values to meteorological accuracy. The meteorological data is not only of interest for its own sake in atmospheric dynamical processes such as mountain waves and flux measurements; but is also required by other ER-2 experiments that simultaneously measure water vapor, O3, aerosols, NO, HCl, CH4, N2O, ClO, BrO, CO2, NOy, HOx and temperature gradients. MMS products are extensively used to assist in the interpretation of their results in understanding the importance of convective effects relative to in-situ chemical changes, as may be noted by examining the list of references attached. The MMS consists of three subsystems: (a) aircraft instrumentation, inertial navigation system (INS), static and dynamic pressure taps, (b) additional dedicated instrumentation measuring angle of attack, yaw, total temperature, and a GPS which on the DC-8 measures position, velocity and attitude (c) an on board data, storage and computing acquisition system. This instrumentation and the associated software requires both an on-going laboratory ground calibration procedure for the total air temperature, static and total pressure inputs, verification of the INS dynamic response and also extensive air measurements and intercomparisons which ultimately verify and calibrate the complete system and its software. More than the usual accuracy is required because of the near cancellation occurring in the difference between the ground speed and true airspeed vectors used to give the wind vector. In the past year we have redesigned, recalibrated and used the MMS system on the NASA DC-8 that was previously used in the SUCCESS mission for the SONEX mission. Two papers were co-authored based on SUCCESS flights. Several reports and handouts were written for SONEX. Calibrations of the DC-8 pressure transducer temperature measuring thermistors was completed and an extensive analysis spanning several years of data files of the DC-8 Rosemount pressure transducer calibrations was done.

Browen, Stuart W.↗

Scaling Evaluation of Ice-Crystal Icing on a Modern Turbofan Engine in PSL Using the COMDES-MELT Code

This paper presents preliminary ice-crystal icing (ICI) altitude scaling evaluation results of a Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE) that was tested in the NASA Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) during January of 2018. This engine geometry features a hidden core design to keep the core less exposed. The engine was fitted with internal video cameras to observe various ice buildup processes at multiple selected locations within the engine core flow path covering the fan stator, the splitter-lip/shroud/strut, and the high pressure compressor (HPC) variable inlet guide vane (IGV) regions. The potential ice accretion risk was pre-determined to occur by using NASA’s in-house 1D Engine Icing Risk assessment code, COMDES-MELT. The code was successful in predicting the risk of ice accretion in adiabatic regions like the fan-stator of the HURE at specific engine operating points. However at several operating points during the test, liquid water was observed running along the shroud toward the variable IGV of the HPC regions with an air temperature well below freezing, thus no particle melting could have occurred due to heating from the air alone. It was reasoned that other sources of heat were present in that region. To account for these heat sources the inlet total temperature was adjusted to give a wet bulb temperature of 24 F below the standard minimum wet bulb temperature of 492 R to allow ice to accrete in the splitter-lip/shroud/strut region, which was determined from a reference case where hard ice was observed in that region. With that adjustment the COMDES-MELT code was successful in providing operating points where there was a risk of ice accretion during the test campaign. In addition to calculating possible conditions at different selected lower altitudes, simulations were run to determine potential inlet conditions that could lead to ice-crystal accretion along the prescribed stations where the cameras were available. From there, scaled test conditions were determined by best matching the following three icing related parameters of the reference condition: (1) the local air total wet bulb temperature, (2) the local ice crystal cloud melt ratio and (3) the engine fan face ice/water to air mass flux ratio of the ice crystal cloud. Instantaneous images taken from the time-lapsed movies of ice buildup were used along with the relevant thermodynamic data of air, water vapor and local icing condition to help evaluate how closely the proposed altitude scaling method could be used in ground based test facility to duplicate selected reference ICI features observed at specific location inside this engine at different scale altitudes. Discussions on observed limitation for engine icing scaling application from this test campaign and needed improvement are provided. A scaling test procedure to help identify potential ICI risk conditions and possible ice accretion locations of a new turbofan engine is evaluated in PSL.

Engine Testing in PSL↗

Laser Sounder for Global Measurement of CO2 Concentrations in the Troposphere from Space

Measurements of tropospheric CO2 abundance with global-coverage, a few hundred km spatial and monthly temporal resolution are needed to quantify processes that regulate CO2 storage by the land and oceans. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is the first space mission focused on atmospheric CO2 for measuring total column CO, and O2 by detecting the spectral absorption in reflected sunlight. The OCO mission is an essential step, and will yield important new information about atmospheric CO2 distributions. However there are unavoidable limitations imposed by its measurement approach. These include best accuracy only during daytime at moderate to high sun angles, interference by cloud and aerosol scattering, and limited signal from CO2 variability in the lower tropospheric CO2 column. We have been developing a new laser-based technique for the remote measurement of the tropospheric CO2 concentrations from orbit. Our initial goal is to demonstrate a lidar technique and instrument technology that will permit measurements of the CO2 column abundance in the lower troposphere from aircraft. Our final goal is to develop a space instrument and mission approach for active measurements of the CO2 mixing ratio at the 1-2 ppmv level. Our technique is much less sensitive to cloud and atmospheric scattering conditions and would allow continuous measurements of CO2 mixing ratio in the lower troposphere from orbit over land and ocean surfaces during day and night. Our approach is to use the 1570nm CO2 band and a 3-channel laser absorption spectrometer (i.e. lidar used an altimeter mode), which continuously measures at nadir from a near polar circular orbit. The approach directs the narrow co-aligned laser beams from the instrument's lasers toward nadir, and measures the energy of the laser echoes reflected from land and water surfaces. It uses several tunable fiber laser transmitters which allowing measurement of the extinction from a single selected CO2 absorption line in the 1570 nm band. This band is free from interference from other gases and has temperature insensitive absorption lines. During the measurement the lasers are tuned on- and off- a selected CO2 line near 1572 nm and a selected O2 line near 768 nm in the Oxygen A band at kHz rates. The lasers use tunable diode seed lasers followed by fiber amplifiers, and have spectral widths much narrower than the gas absorption lines. The receiver uses a 1-m diameter telescope and photon counting detectors and measures the background light and energies of the laser echoes from the surface. The extinction and column densities for the CO2 and O2 gases are estimated from the ratio of the on and offline surface echo via the differential optical absorption technique. Our technique rapidly alternates between several on-line wavelengths set to the sides of the selected gas absorption lines. It exploits the atmospheric pressure broadening of the lines to weight the measurement sensitivity to the atmospheric column below 5 km. This maximizes sensitivity to CO2 in the boundary layer, where variations caused by surface sources and sinks are largest. Simultaneous measurements of O2 column will use an identical approach with an O2 line. Thee laser frequencies are tunable and have narrow (MHz) line widths. In combination with sensitive photon counting detectors these enables much higher spectral resolution and precision than is possible with passive spectrometer. 1aser backscatter profiles are also measured, which permits identifying measurements made to cloud tops and through aerosol layers. The measurement approach using lasers in common-nadir-zenith path allows retrieving CO2 column mixing ratios in the lower troposphere irrespective of sun angle. Pulsed laser signals, time gated receiver and a narrow receiver field-of-view are used to isolate the surface laser echo signals and to exclude photons scattered from clouds and aerosols. Nonetheless, the optical absorption change due to a change of a few ppO2 is small, <1 % which makes achieving the needed measurement sensitivities and stabilities quite challenging. Measurement SNRs and stabilities of >600:1 are needed to estimate CO2 mixing ratio at the 1-2 ppm level. We have calculated characteristics of the technique and have demonstrated aspects of the laser, detector and receiver approaches in th e laboratory We have also measured O2 in an absorption cell, and made C02 measurements over a 400 m long (one way) horizontal path using a sensor breadboard. We will describe these and more details of our approach in the paper.

Abshire, James B.↗

Improving our Understanding of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope or Hype?

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet produces the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. Multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL s properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and rarely moves over their inner cores, so jet-induced vertical wind shear does not appear to be a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. Of the three proposed negative influences, dry air appears to be the key influence; however, the presence of dry SAL air is not a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. In addition, a global view of relative humidity shows moisture distributions in other ocean basins that are almost identical to the Atlantic. The dry zones correspond to regions of descending air on the eastern and equatorward sides of semi-permanent oceanic high pressure systems. Thus, the dry air over the Atlantic appears to be primarily a product of the large-scale flow, but with enhanced drying at low levels associated with the Sahara. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not a major negative influence on hurricanes. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Upper Thermosphere Winds and Temperatures in the Geomagnetic Polar Cap: Solar Cycle, Geomagnetic Activity, and Interplanetary Magnetic Field Dependencies

Ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometers located at Thule, Greenland (76.5 deg. N, 69.0 deg. W, lambda = 86 deg.) and at Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland (67.0 deg. N, 50.9 deg. W, lambda = 74 deg.) have monitored the upper thermospheric (approx. 240-km altitude) neutral wind and temperature over the northern hemisphere geomagnetic polar cap since 1983 and 1985, respectively. The thermospheric observations are obtained by determining the Doppler characteristics of the (OI) 15,867-K (630.0-nm) emission of atomic oxygen. The instruments operate on a routine, automatic, (mostly) untended basis during the winter observing seasons, with data coverage limited only by cloud cover and (occasional) instrument failures. This unique database of geomagnetic polar cap measurements now extends over the complete range of solar activity. We present an analysis of the measurements made between 1985 (near solar minimum) and 1991 (near solar maximum), as part of a long-term study of geomagnetic polar cap thermospheric climatology. The measurements from a total of 902 nights of observations are compared with the predictions of two semiempirical models: the Vector Spherical Harmonic (VSH) model of Killeen et al. (1987) and the Horizontal Wind Model (HWM) of Hedin et al. (1991). The results are also analyzed using calculations of thermospheric momentum forcing terms from the Thermosphere-ionosphere General Circulation Model TGCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The experimental results show that upper thermospheric winds in the geomagnetic polar cap have a fundamental diurnal character, with typical wind speeds of about 200 m/s at solar minimum, rising to up to about 800 m/s at solar maximum, depending on geomagnetic activity level. These winds generally blow in the antisunward direction, but are interrupted by episodes of modified wind velocity and altered direction often associated with changes in the orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). The central polar cap (greater than approx. 80 magnetic latitude) antisunward wind speed is found to be a strong function of both solar and geomagnetic activity. The polar cap temperatures show variations in both solar and geomagnetic activity, with temperatures near 800 K for low K(sub p) and F(sub 10.7) and greater than about 2000 K for high K(sub p) and F(sub 10.7). The observed temperatures are significantly greater than those predicted by the mass spectrometer/incoherent scatter model for high activity conditions. Theoretical analysis based on the NCAR TIGCM indicates that the antisunward upper thermospheric winds, driven by upstream ion drag, basically 'coast' across the polar cap. The relatively small changes in wind velocity and direction within the polar cap are induced by a combination of forcing terms of commensurate magnitude, including the nonlinear advection term, the Coriolis term, and the pressure gradient force term. The polar cap thennospheric thermal balance is dominated by horizontal advection, and adiabatic and thermal conduction terms.

Killeen, T. L.↗

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Pulsed Lidar for Measurement of C02 Concentrations for the ASCENDS Mission - Update

We have been developing a laser-based sounding technique for the remote measurement of the tropospheric CO2 concentrations from orbit for NASA is ASCENDS mission. The mission's goals are to provide measurements of tropospheric CO2 abundance with global-coverage, a few hundred km spatial and monthly temporal resolution. These are needed to better understand CO2 fluxes and the processes that regulate CO2 storage by the land and oceans. For the lIP, we are developing and demonstrating the lidar techniques and key lidar technology that will permit measurements of the CO2 column abundance in the lower troposphere from aircraft. Our final goal is to demonstrate the key capabilities needed for a space lidar and mission approach for the ASCENDS mission. We use a pulsed lidar technique, which is much less sensitive to errors from cloud and atmospheric scattering and to noise from solar background. It allows continuous measurements of CO2 mixing ratio in the lower troposphere during day and night. Our approach uses the 1570nm CO2 band and a two-wavelength laser absorption spectrometer, which continuously measures at nadir from a circular polar orbit. It directs the narrow co-aligned laser beams from the instrument's lasers toward nadir, and measures the energy of the laser echoes reflected from land and water surfaces. It uses a pair of tunable laser transmitters, which allowing measurement of the extinction from a single selected CO2 absorption line in the 1570 nm band and from a line pair in the Oxygen A-band near 765 nm. These regions have temperature insensitive absorption lines are free from interference from other gases. The lasers pulse at 10KHz, use tunable diode seed lasers followed by laser amplifiers, and have MHz spectral widths. During the measurement the lasers are stepped across the selected lines at a kHz rate. The receiver uses a 1-m class telescope and photon sensitive detectors and measures the background light and energies of the laser echoes from the surface. The extinction and column densities for the CO2 and O2 gases are estimated from the ratio of the on and off line echo pulse energies via the integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) technique. Our technique exploits the atmospheric pressure broadening of the lines to weight the measurement sensitivity to the atmospheric column below 5 km. Pulsed laser signals, time gated receiver are used to isolate the surface laser echo signals and to exclude photons scattered from clouds and aerosols. We have successfully demonstrated many key aspects of the approach and lidar technology in the laboratory. We have demonstrated CO2 column measurements in airborne flights during the summers of 2009 and 2010. These included measurements from 3-l3 km altitudes made over a variety of surfaces and through thin and broken clouds. We demonstrated initial airborne measurements of O2 column density to 10 km altitudes during the summer 2010 flights. More details approach, key technologies, and demonstration measurements will be given in the presentation.

Abshire, James↗

Towards an Enhanced Droplet Activation Scheme for Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Initial droplet spectra produced upon activation impact the ensuing chain of microphysical processes andtherefore play a crucial role in cloud evolution. This work re-examines dependencies of newly formed clouddroplet size distribution (CDSD) characteristics on environmental and aerosol properties via parcel model simulationsthat serve as the basis for a multi-moment bulk microphysics droplet activation scheme suitable for acloud-resolving model (CRM). It is found that applying a fixed size threshold to define activated droplets versusemploying physical considerations can lead to erroneous activation and overly broad CDSDs for high aerosolconcentration and weak updraft conditions. Aerosol distributions characterized by larger median sizes and/orincreased solubility can result in greater activated droplet numbers, whereas impacts of these parameters onCDSD spectral width depend on both aerosol number concentration and updraft velocity. An expansion of theactivation scheme to include CDSD spectral width is proposed to aid efforts to extend high-order momentprediction to cloud droplet categories in CRMs as well as better represent variability in the activation process onthe cloud scale.simulations to investigate the regime dependence of the relative dispersion(d)1 of newly activated CDSDs, where d is the ratio of dropletradius standard deviation (σ) to the mean radius (r ). C16 demonstratedthat increasing Na resulted in increasing (decreasing) d values via reducedcondensational narrowing (spectral broadening) rates within theAL (UL) regime, with d values peaking in the TR regime. Their findingssuggest a similar regime dependence for d as R09 noted for Nc and helpexplain reportedly conflicting relationships between Na and CDSDspectral characteristics (cf. Hudson and Noble, 2014; Liu et al., 2014),although the applicability of these results within bulk microphysicalschemes was not addressed.Simulating aerosol-cloud interactions with CRMs employing bulkmicrophysics requires that the scheme minimally predict two CDSDparameters, namely mass and number concentrations, and represent thedroplet activation process. Various activation schemes aim to determineNc from aerosol and environmental properties and include analyticalexpressions (e.g., Abdul-Razzak et al., 1998; Morrison et al., 2005) aswell as lookup tables (LUTs) based on detailed parcel model calculations(e.g., Saleeby and Cotton, 2004, hereafter SC04; Segal and Khain,2006; Thompson and Eidhammer, 2014). Expressions to diagnose CDSDspectral width from Nc (Grabowski, 1998; Liu et al., 2006; Morrison andGrabowski, 2007) or cloud water content (Geoffroy et al., 2010) havealso been developed, although more robust methods to obtain CDSDspectral width upon activation are presently lacking. This latter point isrelevant for triple-moment (3 M) bulk microphysics that aim to predictdistribution spectral width alongside number and mass concentrations(e.g., Loftus et al., 2014; Milbrandt and Yau, 2005).The current work extends the findings of C16 to the current LUTbasedaerosol activation scheme used in the Regional AtmosphericModeling System (RAMS) (Cotton et al., 2003; SC04; Saleeby and vanden Heever, 2013, hereafter SvdH13) and additionally examinesaerosol size and solubility impacts on newly activated CDSD properties.Because early cloud development processes such as condensationalgrowth, evaporation, and droplet self-collection depend on and impactCDSD spectral width (Hudson and Yum, 1997; Seifert and Beheng 2001;Lu and Seinfeld, 2006; Igel and van den Heever, 2017), an expansion ofthe activation LUTs to include CDSD spectral width is proposed as apreliminary step for extending 3M prediction to CDSDs in CRMs forimproved simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions.2. MethodologyThe current RAMS two-moment microphysics module determinesthe fractional number of aerosol particles that activate to cloud dropletsfrom five-dimensional LUTs based on model predicted air temperature(T), w, Na, and the geometric median radius (rg) and soluble fraction (ε)of the aerosol size distribution (SvdH13). These LUTs are created offlineusing a one-dimensional Lagrangian adiabatic parcel model (Feingoldand Heymsfield, 1992; Heymsfield and Sabin, 1989; SC04) to simulateexplicit droplet activation and initial CDSD growth for a range of ambientatmospheric conditions [T, w] and binned lognormal aerosol sizedistributions given by= ⎡⎣ ⎢− ⎤⎦ ⎥N r Nr π σr rσ( )2 lnexp[ln( / )]2(ln )aggg22 (1)where r is the dry aerosol particle bin radius and σg is the geometricstandard deviation of the distribution. As the parcel model simulationsfocus on the activation process, other processes such as coalescence,sedimentation, and mixing are not considered. Details of the parcelmodel can be found in SC04 and SvdH13, and only a brief description isprovided here. At the onset of parcel model calculations, the initiallydry aerosol particles in all bins first deliquesce and reach theirequilibrium diameters in a sub-saturated environment based on theKöhler equation for solution droplets. The parcel is then lifted at a fixedupward velocity w, and particle growth by vapor diffusion, along withconcurrent changes in the ambient environment, are iteratively computedusing the Variable-coefficient Ordinary Differential Equation(VODE) solver (Brown et al., 1989). The time resolution of these calculationsis determined within the VODE solver, and the frequency atwhich the solver is called is controlled by a longer model time stepbased on fixed upward parcel displacement increments (Δz) at thespecified w (Δt=Δz/w). Model calculations proceed until the parcelreaches a height 50m beyond the level of maximum saturation ratio(Smax) or total parcel displacement exceeds 2 km. Upon model termination,Smax and the fractional number of aerosols (factv) resulting innewly formed cloud droplets, defined as particles having diameters of atleast 2 μm, are cataloged in the LUTs according to the specified T, w, Na,rg, and ε parameter values.A critical point regarding the creation of these LUTs is the use of afixed minimum diameter (Dmin) to define cloud droplets in the parcelmodel, which can produce erroneous CDSD characteristics, particularlywithin the UL regime. For aerosol distributions with large rg valuesunder low SS conditions, for example, deliquesced aerosols within thelarge tail of the distribution can exceed 2 μm in diameter yet remainunactivated as ‘haze’ particles (Levin and Cotton, 2009; McFigganset al., 2006). For this study, aerosol particles activate to cloud dropletsbased on the critical diameter Dcrit as a function of parcel supersaturationratio (Sr) as in R09:D = σ MS RTρ83 ln( ) critsol wr w (2)where σsol is the surface tension of a solution droplet, Mw and ρw are themolar mass and density of liquid water, respectively, and R is theuniversal gas constant. Additionally, at relatively large w values withinthe AL regime, Nc stabilizes shortly after reaching supersaturation.However, parcel ascent and condensational growth continue beyondthe level of Smax, potentially causing additional narrowing of the CDSD.In the current work, model calculations terminate upon reaching Smaxas changes in Nc are negligible with continued ascent (Peng et al., 2007;R09).Parcel model simulations are performed to examine the sensitivitiesof CDSD characteristics to w, Na, rg, and ε, with the ranges for theseparameters listed in Table 1. Aerosols are assumed to be a mix of solubleand insoluble material of equal density, specified by ε, where fullysoluble aerosols correspond to ammonium sulfate with hygroscopicityparameter κ=0.61 (Petters and Kreidenweis, 2007). FollowingSvdH13, aerosol geometric standard deviation is fixed at σg=1.8, andaerosol distributions (Eq. 1) are partitioned into 100 logarithmicallyspacedbins spanning a size range specific to each rg value. For all simulations,Δz=1 m, and initial values of relative humidity, air temperatureand pressure are set to RH=0.99, T=10 °C and p=900 hPa,respectively.

Loftus, Adrian M.↗

Cratering on Titan: A Pre-Cassini Perspective

The NASA-ESA Cassini mission, comprising a formidably instrumented orbiter and parachute-borne probe to be launched this October, promises to reveal a crater population on Titan that has been heretofore hidden by atmospheric haze. This population on the largest remaining unexplored surface in the solar system will be invaluable in comparative planetological studies, since it introduces evidence of the atmospheric effects of cratering on an icy satellite. Here, I highlight some impact features we may hope to find and could devote some modeling effort toward. Titan in a Nutshell: Radius= 2575 km. Density= 1880 kg/cubic m consistent with rock-ice composition. Surface pressure = 1.5 bar. Surface gravity = 1.35 m/square s Atmosphere -94% N2 6% CH, Surface temperature = 94K Tropopause temperature = 70K at 40 km alt. Probable liquid hydrocarbon deposits exist on or near the surface.Titan in a Nutshell: Radius= 2575 km. Density= 1880 kg/cubic m consistent with rock-ice composition. Surface pressure = 1.5 bar. Surface gravity = 1.35 m/square s; Atmosphere about 94% N2 6% CH, Surface temperature = 94K Tropopause temperature = 70K at 40 km alt. Probable liquid hydrocarbon deposits exist on or near the surface. Titan is comparable to Callisto and Ganymede for strength/gravity, Mars/Earth/Venus for atmospheric interaction, and Hyperion, Rhea, and Iapetus for impactor distribution. The leading/trailing asymmetry of crater density from heliocentric impactors is expected to be about 5-6, in the absence of resurfacing. Any Saturnocentric impactor population is likely to alter this. In particular the impact disruption of Hyperion is noted; because of the 3:4 orbital resonance with Titan, fragments from the proto-Hyperion breakup would have rapidly accreted onto Titan. Titan's resurfacing history is of course unknown. The disruption of impactors into fragments that individually create small craters is expected to occur. A crude estimate suggests a maximum separation of about 2 km (compared with 4 km on Venus, or 0.5 km on Earth). Crater chains are unlikely on Titan, since impactors must pass close enough to Saturn to be tidally disrupted; as a result, they would suffer aerodynamic disruption. Crater counting on adjacent satellites gives densities of about 200 per 10 (exp 6) square km for 20-km-diameter craters. However, the presence of a thick atmosphere leads to atmospheric shielding, depleting the relative abundance of small craters. This has been evaluated by models, and the relative abundance of small craters may be due to a diagnostic atmospheric collapse. A number of radar-dark "splotches" have been detected on Venus; these have been attributed to the interaction of the surface with the atmospheric shockwave produced by the Tunguska-like explosion of a bolide in the atmosphere. Simple analogy suggests that similar features might occur on Titan, but the shocked mass density (which controls the momentum coupling between the surface and the shockwave) of Titan's cold N2 atmosphere is about 20x smaller than that of Venus's hot CO2 atmosphere. Unless ice is much more easily turned to rubble than is rock, such features seem less probable on Titan. When the energy deposited by an impact forms a fireball with an equilibrate greater than one scale height, the fireball expands upward and can distribute ejecta. on ballistic exoatmospheric trajectories. On Venus this process is believed to be responsible for the parabolic features; the interaction of various-sized particles falling through the atmosphere with the zonal wind field winnows the particles to form a parabolic deposit. Although such a process is possible on Titan, the large scale height at higher altitudes would make it more difficult. Comparison with craters on other icy satellites suggests that craters on Titan will be fairly shallow (depth/diameter about 0.1) and craters greater than 10 km in diameter will have central peaks or domed bases, perhaps with central pits. The formation of ejecta. blankets may involve the atmosphere in a significant way, both by restraining the expansion of the ejecta cloud and by influencing the thermal history of the ejecta. Compared with Venus, Titan's atmosphere will chill an impact melt somewhat quickly, so the long ejecta flows seen on Venus seem less likely, detailed modeling needs to be performed to determine the impact melt production. Crater topography on Titan may be highlighted by the influence of liquids forming crater lakes. Craters with central peaks will typically form ring-shaped lakes, although horseshoe-shaped takes may be common; domed craters with central pits may even form bullseye lakes with islands with central ponds. If liquids have covered a substantial part of Titan's surface for a substantial period, hydroblemes and tsunami deposits may be common.

Lorenz, R. D.↗