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At least 307 records · Page 17

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗

A generalizable machine learning-assisted fast Fourier transform algorithm to simulate the large strain phenomena in polycrystalline materials

Machine learning methods have shown initial promise in constitutive modeling for single crystals or homogenized polycrystals, delivering notable computational efficiency. However, existing machine learning-based constitutive models often lack generalizability, limiting their application across diverse boundary value problems. This study introduces a thermodynamics-informed artificial neural network model to accelerate rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform simulations for cross-scale deformation behaviors of polycrystals under complex loading. Our model integrates microstructural variability and local interactions effectively. To address local effects in each grain, we employ K-means clustering to group Gauss points within the microstructure into clusters assumed to be in similar mechanical states. This approach, based on self-clustering analysis, extends model scope from macroscopic stress response to the granular level, capturing mechanical responses and orientation evolution across grains. This reduces the number of nonlinear problems to solve, with cluster responses propagated throughout each group. The thermodynamics-based artificial neural network-extracted features are further processed using local material state clusters to account for history-dependent deformation and evolving microstructures. Additionally, representative volume element simulations with rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform provide reliable datasets for model training. The proposed model demonstrates high efficiency, accuracy, self-consistency, and enhanced generalizability in predicting strain–stress responses and orientation evolution at both individual grain and aggregate scales under complex loading conditions, such as biaxial tension and arbitrary loading scenarios.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reactive Transport Modeling with Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Critical Minerals Applications

This study presents a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for reactive transport modeling for simulating fast bimolecular reactions in porous media. Accurate characterization of cAhemical interactions and product formation in surface and subsurface environments is essential for advancing critical mineral extraction and related geoscience applications. The proposed methodology sequentially addresses the flow and diffusion–reaction subproblems. The flow field is computed using a mixed formulation, while the diffusion–reaction system is modeled via two uncoupled tensorial diffusion equations reformulated in terms of chemical invariants. PINNs are employed to solve the governing equations, enabling data-efficient, mesh-free prediction of chemical concentration fields. The framework is validated through a series of benchmark problems involving flow in heterogeneous porous media. Initial verification is conducted using patch tests for the flow field, followed by validation of the transport problem with emphasis on preserving non-negativity of concentrations. The complete fast bimolecular reaction scenario is then solved, yielding spatial distributions of reactants and product species. Results demonstrate that the PINNs-based approach effectively captures sharp, mixing-limited reaction fronts and dispersive mixing behavior, offering reliable predictions of reactive plume evolution. These capabilities are crucial for evaluating long-term subsurface behavior in applications such as fluid storage, energy extraction, and efficient extraction of critical minerals.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty-aware Continuous Implicit Neural Representations for Remote Sensing Object Counting

Many existing object counting methods rely on density map estimation (DME) of the discrete grid representation by decoding extracted image semantic features from designed convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Relying on discrete density maps not only leads to information loss dependent on the original image resolution, but also has a scalability issue when analyzing high-resolution images with cubically increasing memory complexity. Furthermore, none of the existing methods can offer reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the derived count estimates. To overcome these limitations, we design UNcertainty-aware, hypernetwork-based Implicit neural representations for Counting (UNIC) to assign probabilities and the corresponding counting confidence over continuous spatial coordinates. We derive a sampling-based Bayesian counting loss function and develop the corresponding model training algorithm. UNIC outperforms existing methods on the Remote Sensing Object Counting (RSOC) dataset with reliable UQ and improved interpretability of the derived count estimates. Our code is available at https://github.com/SiyuanXu-tamu/UNIC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Delamination-informed lifecycle decisions: A dielectric and machine learning framework for composite sorting and recycling

Composite materials are widely used in aerospace, marine, and automotive sectors due to their high strength-to-weight ratio and durability. However, their long-term reliability can be compromised by damage accumulation. Specifically, delamination initiation serves as a precursor to structural failure, which is often difficult to detect during damage inspection. Identifying and sorting delamination initiation in samples not only increases operational safety while providing critical information for end-of-life decisions, which influences both the service life extension value and the efficiency of fiber extraction during recycling. This research addresses two challenges: (1) developing a nondestructive, ex-situ framework to sort composite materials based on damage severity, particularly delamination, and (2) understanding how damage in composites influences resin removal during pyrolysis. Both experimental work and finite element analysis were performed to predict critical stress levels that are associated with delamination onset. Based on these results, three loading levels 50 %, 75 %, and 90 % of maximum stress, were selected for controlled experiments, generating composite samples with varying extents of damage for machine learning model training. Microscopic imaging of these samples confirmed the damage progression from matrix cracking to delamination, validating the computational predictions. We explored supervised machine learning using dielectric measurements to classify damage states. Preliminary results show an artificial neural network can identify early delamination which is a potential precursor to failure, with 94.44 % accuracy on our dataset. A parallel investigation into the effect of damage severity on pyrolysis recycling showed that heavily delaminated samples required significantly less energy for comparable matrix removal than undamaged samples.

dielectric variables↗

Combining Data with Physical Knowledge for Uncertainty Quantification in Certification and Reliability Analysis

Unifying empirical data with predictive models can enable engineering cost-savings through certification by analysis and reliability-based design. Both concepts require rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) and robust understanding and treatment of relevant physics. Combining sampling-based UQ algorithms with high-fidelity simulations creates a computational bottleneck that is often alleviated through the use of machine learning (ML). ML can be used to create computationally efficient surrogates for simulations of complex or high-dimensional physical interactions (e.g., multi-phase interactions associated with melt pools in laser powder bed fusion or spatially-dependent material properties in functionally graded materials). However, negative side effects of ML may include a lack of interpretability and negative correlation between event rarity and simulation accuracy due to a lack of training data. As such, it is important to infuse ML algorithms with physics-based guardrails to provide confidence in their predictions. This talk will provide a brief review of recent NASA research at this intersection of physics-based simulation, ML, and UQ with a focus on certification and reliability analysis.

uncertainty quantification↗

DS-TIDE: Harnessing Dynamical Systems for Efficient Time-Independent Differential Equation Solving

Time-Independent Differential Equations (TIDEs) are central to modeling equilibrium behavior across a wide range of scientific and engineering domains, from electrostatics to porous media flow. Conventional numerical solvers offer reliable solutions but incur significant computational costs due to fine-grained discretization and iterative procedures. Machine learning-based approaches address this by replacing iterative solving processes with one-time inference; however, their sophisticated models require extensive training resources that often exceed those of traditional solvers. Consequently, designing a TIDE solver that achieves high accuracy, broad applicability, and exceptional computational efficiency remains a fundamental challenge. In this paper, we propose DS-TIDE, a novel hardware solver that is inspired by, and subsequently leverages, the intrinsic connection between Dynamical Systems (DS) and Differential Equations (DEs) to efficiently and accurately solve TIDEs. DS-TIDE employs a CMOS-compatible DS-based processor, whose physical states evolve under carefully designed DE-driven dynamics and naturally converge to equilibrium -- the solution of the target TIDE -- within ~1µs on a ~1-watt DS-TIDE processor. To enhance expressivity, DS-TIDE incorporates Heterogeneous Dynamics with Temporal Layering (HDTL), which solves TIDEs through a three-stage DS evolution -- conditioning, solving, and decoding -- each governed by specialized dynamics. The entire evolution process is analogous to an infinitely deep neural network temporally unrolled, offering the system the capability of representing complex equations. Furthermore, DS-TIDE is equipped with an on-device DS-DE Auto-Alignment mechanism that dynamically adapts intrinsic hardware dynamics within milliseconds, effectively aligning the system’s dynamics to diverse target DEs. Experimental results across TIDEs from a wide range of scientific and engineering domains demonstrate that DS-TIDE achieves ~10^3× speedup, ~10^5× energy savings, and competitive or superior accuracy compared to state-of-the-art numerical and ML-based solvers.

Liu, Chuan↗

Comprehensive assessment of deep reinforcement learning approaches for economic dispatch in nuclear-driven microgrids

As the electrical grid integrates more variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the demand for distributed and flexible systems to address this increased variability becomes critical. Nuclear-driven microgrids provide a promising solution by offering stable generation to complement intermittent renewables, ensuring grid reliability and operating efficiency. This paper proposes a recurrent deep reinforcement learning framework for optimal economic dispatch in a nuclear-powered microgrid integrating renewable energy sources, small modular reactors, battery storage systems, and balance-of-plant dynamics. A three-agent control architecture is developed, where demand and renewable energy agents act as forecasters, and a reinforcement learning-based dispatch agent performs real-time energy allocation. A nonlinear programming formulation is first used to generate an optimal baseline for benchmarking. The proposed dispatch controller, based on Proximal Policy Optimization enhanced with Long Short-Term Memory networks, exploits temporal correlations in system dynamics by taking advantage of the time series used as inputs to improve policy robustness under uncertainty. Comparative analysis against established deep reinforcement learning methods, including Proximal Policy Optimization with a feedforward architecture, Soft Actor-Critic, and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, demonstrates superior performance. Numerical results indicate that the proposed controller achieves a 0.39% cost reduction relative to the nonlinear programming benchmark and outperforms other learning-based methods by generating additional revenue of up to 0.35%. All reinforcement learning controllers compute dispatch actions in less than 0.3 s, resulting in a computational speedup of more than three orders of magnitude over the nonlinear programming baseline. The findings of this paper highlight their applicability for real-time operation and control in nuclear-integrated microgrids under volatile operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Artificial intelligence-based predictive modeling for imaging neutral particle analyzers on the DIII-D tokamak

The Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) at DIII-D is a diagnostic system used to accurately resolve the energy and spatial distributions of fast ions in fusion plasmas. A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique named INPA-net is based on Reservoir Computing Networks and developed here to predict active and passive signals produced by charge-exchange reactions from injected and edge-cold neutrals, respectively, in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. This model is trained using a set of 21 time domain signals between 0 s to 3.35 s that includes injected beam and thermal plasma information, and 6444 real 2D experimental images of the INPA in 12 plasma discharges at DIII-D. The trained neural network is able to forecast experimental images in real-time. The model achieves an R-squared value of 0.91, which is higher than the 0.83 value achieved by a simple linear regression model. This improvement highlights the model's enhanced predictive accuracy for measured images from the validation set. This AI approach is valuable due to its rapid response times and potential for integration into real-time plasma control systems. A version of this model capable of generating syntehic images would be useful for the real-time monitoring of fast-ion transport. A comprehensive sensitivity study reveals that INPA-net maintains high performance even with variations in the input parameters, indicating the model's robustness and reliability. While developed for the INPA, the underlying architecture is adaptable and may be applied to various 2D imaging diagnostics in fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Persistent DynAMICS

Persistent DynAMICS is a lightweight software platform that enables distributed sensing systems to operate as a unified, responsive network. It integrates with existing sensors, data systems, and processing tools as an overlay, without requiring hardware replacement or increasing user burden. As data is collected, the system identifies situations that require additional attention and directs selected sensors to gather more information. For example, if a sensor detects an unusual condition along a pipeline, the system can task nearby sensors or different sensing modalities to confirm the event and focus data collection where it is needed. To support this, the platform forms temporary groups of sensors that work together to address specific objectives. Once complete, these groups are dissolved and resources are reassigned as needed. Communication is handled through an integrated messaging framework with client and server components, enabling reliable operation and data continuity even in low-bandwidth or intermittent connectivity environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Examining Mars with SPICE

The International Mars Conference highlights the wealth of scientific data now and soon to be acquired from an international armada of Mars-bound robotic spacecraft. Underlying the planning and interpretation of these scientific observations around and upon Mars are ancillary data and associated software needed to deal with trajectories or locations, instrument pointing, timing and Mars cartographic models. The NASA planetary community has adopted the SPICE system of ancillary data standards and allied tools to fill the need for consistent, reliable access to these basic data and a near limitless range of derived parameters. After substantial rapid growth in its formative years, the SPICE system continues to evolve today to meet new needs and improve ease of use. Adaptations to handle landers and rovers were prototyped on the Mars pathfinder mission and will next be used on Mars '01-'05. Incorporation of new methods to readily handle non-inertial reference frames has vastly extended the capability and simplified many computations. A translation of the SPICE Toolkit software suite to the C language has just been announced. To further support cartographic calculations associated with Mars exploration the SPICE developers at JPL have recently been asked by NASA to work with cartographers to develop standards and allied software for storing and accessing control net and shape model data sets; these will be highly integrated with existing SPICE components. NASA specifically supports the widest possible utilization of SPICE capabilities throughout the international space science community. With NASA backing the Russian Space Agency and Russian Academy of Science adopted the SPICE standards for the Mars 96 mission. The SPICE ephemeris component will shortly become the international standard for agencies using the Deep Space Network. U.S. and European scientists hope that ESA will employ SPICE standards on the Mars Express mission. SPICE is an open set of standards, and all related specifications and software are freely distributed around the world. This poster describes the current state of SPICE system development, with special emphasis on current and planned support for Mars exploration missions.

Acton, Charles H.↗

Powered By CADET

The Capacity Expansion Decision Support for Distribution Networks (CADET) is a Python-based library and framework for creating electrical distribution system capacity planning tools for cost-effective, reliable power delivery. It enables the creation of modular, scalable, and extensible distribution capacity planning tools by providing a high-level optimization interface, parameter and options data managers, optimization constraint and objective libraries, generalized nomenclature, a system for tracking and modifying distribution network changes, optimization solution validation, and other capabilities. This webinar will describe 1) the motivation for creating CADET, 2) key designs, and 3) several use cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Millimeter Wave Systems for Airports and Short-Range Aviation Communications: A Survey of the Current Channel Models at mmWave Frequencies

Millimeter-wave (mmWave) communications will play a key role in enhancing the throughput, reliability, and security of next generation wireless networks. These advancements are achieved through the large bandwidth available in this band and through the use of highly directional links that will be used to overcome the large pathloss at these frequencies. Although the terrestrial application of mmWave systems is advancing at a rapid pace, the use of mmWave communication systems in aviation systems or airports is still in its infancy. This can be attributed to the challenges related to radio technology and lack of development, and characterization of mmWave wireless channels for the aviation field and the airport environment. Consequently, one of our goals is to develop methodologies that support mmWave air to ground links, and various links at airports, by applying new localization schemes that allow for application of highly directional links that can be deployed over longer distances despite the high path loss at mmWave frequencies. However, a very thorough understanding of the mmWave channel models are needed to enable such new applications. To this end, in this paper, we present a survey of the current channel models in the mmWave band. The 3-dimensional statistical channel model is also reviewed and its parameters and typical characteristics for this model are identified and computed through simulation for the Boise metropolitan area.

air traffic management↗

Allosteric prediction via convolutional neural networks and protein structural and dynamical features

Allostery is the phenomenon whereby a binding event or covalent modification at one site in a protein modulates function at a distal site, thus changing a protein’s functional state. As such, it is a ubiquitous aspect of protein functional regulation. Computationally predicting allosteric states is important as part of the broader challenge of functional annotation, but it also has practical implications for drug development, as targeting an allosteric site often affords greater specificity compared with targeting an orthosteric site. This study introduces a machine learning approach to predict the allosteric functional state using the small G-protein KRas as the model system, due to its implication in many types of cancer and being well studied as a result with many x-ray crystallographic structures of KRas available with different mutations and ligands bound. Using structural and dynamical features that can be cast as images, namely interatomic distances, contact maps, covariance, and mutual information, supervised learning was performed using convolutional neural networks. Two pretrained convolutional neural network architectures, GoogLeNet and ResNet18, were fine-tuned to classify KRas into active or inactive states based on these features. Across training regimes, atomic contact maps emerged as the most effective structural feature, whereas linearized mutual information outperformed covariance in capturing dynamical correlations relevant to allostery. Models achieved significant validation accuracy, with atomic contact maps yielding up to 90% accuracy. In conclusion, the findings suggest that integrating global structural rearrangements and correlated motion patterns with deep learning can reliably predict protein allosteric states, offering a promising framework for understanding allosteric regulation and developing targeted therapeutics.

Rajeshwar T., Rajitha [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗

Divertor Plasma Detachment Control Neural Network

DivControlNN is a state-of-the-art software tool that leverages advanced machine learning techniques to predict and control divertor plasma behavior in fusion reactors. Plasma, a highly energetic and electrically charged gas, requires meticulous management to protect reactor components and maintain optimal energy production. Conventional simulation methods, although extremely detailed, typically demand extensive computational time-making them unsuitable for real-time control scenarios. DivControlNN addresses this challenge by learning from tens of thousands of high-fidelity simulations, thereby creating a rapid surrogate model that can deliver near-instantaneous predictions. At the core of its functionality is a sophisticated technique known as latent space mapping, which condenses complex, high-dimensional plasma data into a compact, lower-dimensional representation. This streamlined representation enables the system to quickly forecast essential plasma properties and determine the precise conditions required for effective detachment. Detachment is a crucial process in which the plasma is cooled before reaching the divertor plates, thereby reducing heat loads and mitigating material erosion. In recent experiments conducted on the KSTAR tokamak in South Korea, DivControlNN successfully guided the detachment process without any fine-tuning-even when applied to a new tungsten divertor configuration. By achieving a computational speed-up of over one hundred million times compared to traditional simulation methods while maintaining low prediction errors, DivControlNN stands to significantly enhance real-time control and diagnostic capabilities in future fusion reactors. This breakthrough paves the way for safer, more reliable reactor operation and represents a major advancement toward realizing fusion energy as a practical, sustainable, and clean power source.

Xu, Xueqiao [Lawrence Livermore National Laborator↗

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Traffic Shaping to Traffic Engineering in Time-Sensitive OT Network

Modern industrial automation systems increasingly depend on network infrastructures for time-critical communication, driving the need for solutions that guarantee timely and reliable data delivery. IEEE 802.1 Time-Sensitive Networking (TSN) holds significant promise for converging Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) networks, enabling interoperability and supporting the coexistence of mixed-critical traffic crucial for Industry 4.0 and IIoT. To achieve deterministic communication, TSN employs various traffic shapers such as the Time-Aware Shaper (TAS), Asynchronous Traffic Shaper (ATS), and Credit-Based Shaper (CBS). However, the effective deployment of TSN in industrial automation faces several challenges. These include the non-trivial mapping of diverse industrial traffic types to specific shapers, the complexity of optimizing shaper configurations. We present a model for effective traffic engineering within TSN enabled OT Network. Our experiments also demonstrate how shaping of certain traffic types get affected in absence of precise time synchronization and propose possible solutions based on experiment results. Based on our experimental results we provide recommendations on how traffic type assignments should be done and which traffic shaping mechanisms should be used for a particular traffic type.

Sarker, Taposh Kumer [University of Texas at El Pa↗