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DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis, Processing, and Use of Isotopically Enriched Epitaxial Oxide Thin Films

Isotopic engineering has emerged as a key approach to study the nucleation, diffusion, phase transitions, and reactions of materials at an atomic level. It aims to uncover mass transport pathways, kinetics, and operational and failure mechanisms of functional materials and devices. Understanding these phenomena leads to deeper insights into important physical processes, such as the transport of ions in energy conversion and storage devices and the role of active sites and supports during heterogeneous catalytic reactions. Likewise, isotopic engineering is being pursued as a means of modifying functionality to enable future technological applications. In this Account, we summarize our recent work employing isotope labeling (e.g., 18 O 2 and 57 Fe) during thin film synthesis and postgrowth processing to reveal growth mechanisms, defect chemistry, and elemental diffusion under working and extreme conditions. Isotope-resolved analysis techniques with nanometer-scale spatial resolution, such as time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography, facilitate the accurate quantification of isotopic placement and concentration in our well-defined heterostructures with precisely positioned, isotope-enriched layers. By measuring the nanometer-scale redistribution between natural abundance and isotopically enriched oxygen layers during the deposition of Fe 2 O 3 and Cr 2 O 3 by molecular beam epitaxy, we identified intermixing processes driven by surface adatoms occurring both at the film growth surface and within the first few layers below the surface. Further insights into synthesis mechanisms were gained by studying the tungsten oxide thin films grown by evaporating WO 3 powder in the presence of background 18 O 2 , revealing minimal incorporation of background oxygen during the film formation process. Thermal and radiation-enhanced diffusion in epitaxial Fe and Cr oxides were precisely tracked using 18 O and 57 Fe tracer layers incorporated into model epitaxial oxide thin films. This approach has allowed us to access thermal diffusion behavior at lower temperatures than previously measured, revealing a potential changeover in diffusion mechanism. Understanding radiation-enhanced diffusion in model oxides that represent the surface layers on the structural components of nuclear reactors informs our understanding of their corrosion behavior under irradiation. Isotopic labeling can also provide unique insights into the surface exchange reactions and defect chemistry of electrocatalysts. For instance, tracking the change in 18 O concentration at the surface of an epitaxial LaNiO 3 thin film after the electrocatalytic oxygen evolution reaction revealed the participation of lattice oxygen, confirming a hypothesis that had been proposed previously. Lastly, we highlight a new direction wherein we perform in situ processing studies utilizing isotopic tracers in conjunction with model epitaxial thin films within the atom probe tomography instrument. Additionally, this Account illustrates the great potential of isotopic engineering to enable fundamental mechanistic insights into physical processes and engineer functional properties in epitaxial films, heterostructures, and superlattices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shock Hugoniot calculations using on-the-fly machine learned force fields with ab initio accuracy

We present a framework for computing the shock Hugoniot using on-the-fly machine learned force field (MLFF) molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, we employ an MLFF model based on the kernel method and Bayesian linear regression to compute the free energy, atomic forces, and pressure, in conjunction with a linear regression model between the internal and free energies to compute the internal energy, with all training data generated from Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT). We verify the accuracy of the formalism by comparing the Hugoniot for carbon with recent Kohn–Sham DFT results in the literature. In so doing, we demonstrate that Kohn–Sham calculations for the Hugoniot can be accelerated by up to two orders of magnitude, while retaining ab initio accuracy. We apply this framework to calculate the Hugoniots of 14 materials in the FPEOS database, comprising 9 single elements and 5 compounds, between temperatures of 10 kK and 2 MK. We find good agreement with first principles results in the literature while providing tighter error bars. In addition, we confirm that the inter-element interaction in compounds decreases with temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Creep-fatigue Behavior and Damage Accumulation of a Candidate Structural Material for Concentrating Solar Power Solar Thermal Receiver (Final Technical Report)

Creep-fatigue deformation is an important consideration for a thermal receiver in Concentrating Solar Power systems due to the constant static stress or pressure, diurnal cycling, and elevated service temperatures required for efficient operation. An accurate description of the creep-fatigue behavior, not available for five of the six candidate materials, is important for assessment of preliminary designs. This project has provided a detailed analysis of the creep-fatigue behavior and damage accumulation of Alloy 740H, a candidate structural material for a CSP solar thermal receiver to address a critical knowledge barrier for receiver designs identified in the CSP Gen3 Demonstration Roadmap. This project was divided in to three tasks, split between two general categories: Experimental and design methodology. Tasks 1 and 3, relating to the collection of data on Alloy 740H plate and sheet forms, respectively, were performed at the Idaho National Laboratory and used as input to Task 2, the development of design methodology performed at Argonne National Laboratory. Experimental work covered limited tensile and creep testing to fill gaps in available data that is currently available and to demonstrate how the plate of Alloy 740H tested in this work compared to historical data. A more substantial testing program for fatigue and creep-fatigue was performed, with particular emphasis on creep-fatigue as there is little available data and it is necessary to understand the creep-fatigue interaction and develop related design models. This effort includes the development of rules for the design of solar receiver components against high temperature creep-fatigue and ratcheting failure modes. The ASME Code rules for high temperature nuclear components was used to the basis of the method but adjustments will be made to reflect the generally shorter, diurnal operating cycles of thermal receivers and the relative consequences of failure, comparing nuclear to solar components. This work has provided guidance for the design of components for concentrating power facilities operating at high temperatures and undergoing high, secondary thermal stresses relative to the applied primary pressure stress. The design rules were developed for the design of Generation 3 CSP tubular receivers manufactured from Alloy 740H, but are generally applicable to a wide range of component types undergoing similar loads. Procedural design rules for components to be used in conjunction with the 2019 edition of the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code and the corresponding design data for Alloy 740H have been developed. A commentary describing the rationale behind the design rules and the data underlying the design material properties, as well as an extensive set of worked sample problems detailing the application of the rules to CSP components were developed as a part of this project, with a separate report covering these aspects in detail and included in the Appendix of this report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Particle charge distributions in the effluent of a flow-through atmospheric pressure low temperature plasma

Atmospheric pressure low-temperature plasmas are often utilized to perform particle synthesis, treatment, and removal. It is well-known that dust particles are highly negatively charged in these plasmas; however, little is known about dust particle charging behavior as particles leave the plasma volume and pass through the spatial afterglow region. In this work, monodisperse particles of various sizes and work functions were introduced into an atmospheric pressure radiofrequency capacitively coupled flow-through plasma. Dust particle electrical mobility distributions downstream of the flow-through plasma were measured utilizing a differential mobility analyzer in conjunction with a condensation particle counter at various gas flow velocities. Charge distributions were determined from the measured electrical mobility distributions. Experiments confirm that particles become less negatively charged, and even net-positively charged after leaving the plasma volume, with a distribution that follows a shifted Boltzmann charge distribution. Additionally, particle charge in the effluent of the flow-through plasma is negligibly dependent on work function but highly size and flow velocity dependent. Larger particles were shown to have a higher magnitude of charge under all studied conditions; however, particle polarity was switchable by varying gas flow velocity. The charging dynamics were simulated utilizing a constant number Monte Carlo model that accounts for electron temperature decay and the transition from ambipolar to free diffusion of electrons and ions in the spatial afterglow. Simulation results also suggest that, at the same flow velocity, larger particles obtain a greater magnitude of charge, negative or positive. Furthermore, the decrease in electron mobility and the difference between ion and electron convective loss rates create an ion-rich region in the plasma effluent that promotes ion–particle collisions and drives particle charge removal and even reversal of polarity. Larger particles more favorably collide with energetic species in these environments, which results in higher charge states.

atmospheric pressure low temperature plasma↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate parameterization of the kinetic energy functional for calculations using exact-exchange

In this report, electronic structure calculations based on Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KSDFT) that incorporate exact exchange or hybrid functionals are associated with large computational expense, a consequence of the inherent cubic scaling bottleneck and large associated prefactor, which limits the length and time scales that can be accessed. Though orbital-free density functional theory (OFDFT) calculations scale linearly with system size and are associated with significantly smaller prefactor, they are limited by the absence of accurate density-dependent kinetic energy functionals. Therefore, the development of accurate density-dependent kinetic energy functionals is important for OFDFT calculations of large realistic systems. To this end, we propose a method to train kinetic energy functional models at the exact-exchange level of theory by using a dictionary of physically relevant terms that have been proposed in the literature in conjunction with linear or nonlinear regression methods to obtain the fitting coefficients. For our dictionary, we use gradient expansion of the kinetic energy, nonlocal models proposed in the literature and their nonlinear combinations, such as a model that incorporates spatial correlations between higher order derivatives of electron density at two points. The predictive capabilities of these models are assessed by using a variety of model one-dimensional systems that exhibit diverse bonding characteristics, such as a chain of eight hydrogens, LiF, LiH, C 4 H 2 , C 4 N 2 and C 3 O 2 . We show that by using data from model one-dimensional KSDFT calculations performed using the exact-exchange functional for only a few neutral structures, it is possible to generate models with high accuracy for charged systems as well as electron and kinetic energy densities during self-consistent field iterations. In addition, we show that it possible to learn both the orbital dependent terms, i.e., the kinetic energy and the exact-exchange energy, and models that incorporate additional nonlinearities in spatial correlations, such as a quadratic model, are needed to capture subtle features of the kinetic energy density that are present in exact-exchange-based KSDFT calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

A multi-center quadrature scheme for the molecular continuum

We report a common way to evaluate electronic integrals for polyatomic molecules is to use Becke’s partitioning scheme (Becke and Chem, 1988) in conjunction with overlapping grids centered at each atomic site. The Becke scheme was designed for integrands that fall off rapidly at large distances, such as those approximating bound electronic states. When applied to states in the electronic continuum, however, Becke scheme exhibits slow convergence and it is highly redundant. Here, we present a modified version of Becke scheme that is applicable to functions of the electronic continuum, such as those involved in molecular photoionization and electron–molecule scattering, and which ensures convergence and efficiency comparable to those realized in the calculation of bound states. In this modified scheme, the atomic weights already present in Becke’s partition are smoothly switched off within a range of few bond lengths from their respective nuclei, and complemented by an asymptotically unitary weight. The atomic integrals are evaluated on small spherical grids, centered on each atom, with size commensurate to the support of the corresponding atomic weight. The residual integral of the interstitial and long-range region is evaluated with a central master grid. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated by evaluating integrals involving integrands containing Gaussian Type Orbitals and Yukawa potentials, on the atomic sites, as well as spherical Bessel functions centered on the master grid. These functions are representative of those encountered in realistic electron-scattering and photoionization calculations in polyatomic molecules.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transition Core Planning and Safety Analyses in Support of LEU Fuel Conversion of the University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR)

The University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR®) is one of six U.S. High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR), including one critical facility, that is working with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) Reactor Conversion Program to convert from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. The M3 Reactor Conversion USHPRR Project objectives include the development of LEU fuel element designs that will ensure safe reactor operations and to maintain the existing experimental performance of each facility. The work is being conducted through many inter-related activities being completed by four Project Pillars: Fuel Qualification (FQ), Fuel Fabrication (FF), Reactor Conversion (RC), and Cross Cutting (CC). A new type of LEU fuel based on an alloy of uranium-10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo) is expected to allow the conversion of those USHPRR, like MURR, requiring higher density fuels. The very-high-density LEU U-10Mo monolithic fuel is currently undergoing irradiation testing and post-irradiation examination under a planned and documented fuel qualification effort. The FQ Pillar will document fuel property and fuel performance data and qualify the fuel for use in these reactors. The FF Pillar is fabricating fuel for ongoing and future irradiation tests, as well as conducting fabrication demonstrations to validate or update preliminary fabrication assumptions. The FF Pillar is also working to develop and install commercial manufacturing capacity with the U-10Mo monolithic fuel to produce prototypic fuel. Working with the RC Pillar at Argonne, MURR has progressed through a preliminary fuel element design using preliminary data for the proposed monolithic alloy of U-10Mo. Analyses were completed in previous work that found for typical equilibrium operations with the preliminary LEU fuel element design, in conjunction with a power uprate to 12 MW and appropriate changes to the MURR Limiting safety system settings (LSSS), MURR will have adequate margins to safety for steady-state operations and postulated transient accidents and will have experimental performance in key locations that meets or exceeds current operations with HEU fuel. The purpose of this work is to develop a sequence of transition cycles that will enable MURR to transition from operation with the reactor core loaded with fresh LEU fuel elements only to typical equilibrium operations with mixed-burnup cores following conversion while meeting operational requirements on safety and experimental performance. It is expected that the use of fresh LEU fuel at conversion and subsequent low burnup of the LEU fuel elements that will initially be available for use following conversion will result in critical control blade positions that will substantially change the axial power distribution in the core and the neutron flux available in key experimental locations relative to equilibrium LEU operations. Given the constraints of MURR safety margins, operational practices, and production and research, a novel method has been developed to identify a transition sequence that minimizes the time MURR operates atypically compared to the current prototypic cycles using HEU fuel. The proposed transition sequence moves quickly to the same sort of equilibrium cycles for the LEU fuel that have already been evaluated in documented preliminary safety analyses. Although shifting the neutron flux peak to the lower half of the core during initial cycles with LEU at 12 MW reduces the experiment performance in some key locations relative to current HEU operations at 10 MW, all LEU cores provide an average performance that meets or exceeds that of HEU. An LEU cycle is reached that meets or exceeds the level of experimental performance predicted for current HEU and equilibrium LEU operations in more than 450 key locations identified by a reactor specialist at MURR by the 23rd cycle following conversion and that afterwards will enable MURR to consistently meet its experimental performance requirements. The proposed transition sequence only requires the fabrication of 34 fresh LEU elements in the first year of operation and does not exceed the anticipated availability of fresh elements that can be produced by the fuel fabricator. By the third year after conversion, 22 fresh LEU elements will be required each year, which is the same as expected for equilibrium LEU operations and the same as current operations with HEU fuel. The proposed transition sequence thus combines a relatively short time period before equilibrium burnup is achieved, a temporary increase of fuel elements needed annually relative to typical operations that are within the production capabilities of the fuel fabricator, and demonstrates comparable experimental performance of the LEU cores relative to current HEU operations. Further measures may be taken to reduce any initial experimental performance penalty even further, where possible, by repositioning certain experiments to leverage the increased performance in the lower axial experimental positions in the initial cycles following conversion or leaving the experiments in the irradiation facilities longer in order to achieve the required neutron fluence. This analysis may require refinement depending on the experimental facilities in use at the time of conversion. Nonetheless, the results presented here, including the experimental performance, core burnup, and critical control blade positions throughout the transition cycles, show that the proposed transition cycle fuel management patterns are consistent with what is expected and desired for MURR operation with LEU U-10Mo fuel. Detailed core power distributions from the neutronics models were also used to evaluate safety margins during steady-state operations for the selected transition cycles and the equilibrium LEU core. It is shown that there are adequate safety margins for both steady-state operations and postulated accident scenarios. For the steady-state operations with the preliminary LEU fuel element design the analysis predicts at least 2.49 MW margin to the onset of flow instability at the LSSS power of 15 MW. Considering the LSSS power is 125% of full license power, the margin to OFI is sufficient. In addition, the critical heat flux ratio at LSSS power is well above the requirement of CHFR > 2.0 from NUREG-1537 for all considered cases. For postulated transient accidents, the minimum margin to the fuel temperature safety limit is at least 109 °C. In summary, the proposed sequence of core loadings for MURR operations following conversion to LEU fuel and a power uprate to 12 MW provides sufficient safety margins for both steady-state operations and postulated transient accidents during a proposed sequence of transition cycles to equilibrium operations. Analysis has shown that there are some local experimental performance penalties during the initial cycles. Although there are local shifts in the experimental performance, on average all LEU cores at 12 MW have equal or higher performance than HEU at 10 MW. Temporary adjustments are being planned that will produce suitable experimental performance during these cycles. The results indicate that for the equilibrium LEU core the experimental performance exceeds that of current HEU operations in all key locations while also demonstrating sufficient safety margins.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗